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000
FXUS62 KCHS 250741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
341 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD AND CROSS THE AREA LATE NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...THE INITIAL BURST OF WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT HAS
YET TO PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUD COVER SO FAR THIS MORNING...
DESPITE HINTS ON THE VARIOUS NAM/RAP SOUNDINGS OF POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD STRATUS FORMATION. A LITTLE STRATUS IS BEGINNING TO
FORM IN THE REIDSVILLE-CLAXTON-SWAINSBORO CORRIDOR AND WILL NEED
TO BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH/NORTHEAST ALONG A WEAK
COASTAL FRONT JUST OFFSHORE AND SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION DATA
SUPPORT A SLIGHT EXPANSION OF THIS ACTIVITY PRIOR TO SUNRISE AS
THE COASTAL FRONT DRIFTS NORTH. LOW-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES FAVOR MOST
OF ANY SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY THAT FORMS TO REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE...
EXCEPT POSSIBLY THE UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST DUE TO THE
GEOMETRY OF THE COASTLINE. WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
PARTS UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THROUGH SUNRISE WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL LITTLE THROUGH
SUNRISE WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 60S.

TODAY...SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT WILL BECOME ZONAL TODAY AS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
APPROACHES. THE SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED BAND OF STRONG UVM WILL
PASS WELL TO THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT ITS ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN
LOOKS MEAGER AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND DESPITE THE VARIOUS MODEL
SOUNDING HIGHLIGHTING MODEST SBCAPE VALUES ABOVE 2200 J/KG DURING
PEAK HEATING...THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN QUITE
DRY WITH RESULTING K-INDICES REMAINING BELOW 20 UNITS. THIS
SUGGESTS LITTLE RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY THE
VARIOUS SYNOPTIC AND MESOSCALE MODELS. WILL GO WITH A DRY FORECAST
FOR TODAY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER-MID 80S. BEACH LOCATIONS WILL
REMAIN QUITE A BIT COOLER...BUT SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER
THAN WHAT WAS OBSERVED THURSDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE SUPPORTING SHORTWAVE EXITS OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO COULD POP ALONG THE
BOUNDARY ITSELF AS IT DROPS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT FORECAST
SOUNDINGS DEPICT AN INCREASINGLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AS THE NIGHT
PROGRESSES. THIS COUPLED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SUGGEST THE RISK FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS QUITE LOW. A DRY
FORECAST WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH SUNRISE SATURDAY WITH LOWS
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT
DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY...THEN DRIFT INTO THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS ON SUNDAY. UPPER RIDGING WILL ALSO
STRENGTHEN DURING THE WEEKEND...WITH ITS AXIS SETTLING ALONG THE
EAST COAST BY SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DRY AND WARM
WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN THE LOW 80S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN A
GENERAL EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE WARMING TREND WILL BE
EVEN MORE EVIDENT ON SUNDAY...AS THICKNESSES INCREASE AND LOW
LEVEL WINDS BECOME MORE SOLID SOUTHERLY. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S...WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 70S DUE TO SEABREEZE EFFECTS. LOW TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE MILD IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

MONDAY...AN EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL MAKE ONLY SUBTLE MOVEMENTS
OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES EARLY NEXT WEEK...PROVIDING THE
ENERGY TO SPIN UP AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT WELL
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A WARM FRONTAL FEATURE WILL LIFT NORTH
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE DAY...WELL AHEAD OF THE
LINGERING SYSTEM TO THE WEST. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HAVE
STEADILY INCREASED BY MONDAY WITHIN SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND
CONSIDERING DECENT DIURNAL HEATING...EXPECT ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE FAVORED AFTERNOON
HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEABREEZE. TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST...MODERATED SLIGHTLY BY INCREASING
CLOUD COVER AND SOME WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER RIDGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE ROBUST LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL BE SOMEWHAT
STALLED BY AN OMEGA BLOCKING PATTERN SEEN IN UPPER RIDGING ALONG
THE EASTERN STATES AND ANOTHER LOW SYSTEM OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST. BOTH THE SURFACE LOW AND UPPER TROUGH COULD BE FORCED MORE
NORTH RATHER THAN EAST WITHIN THIS PATTERN...DELAYING FRONTAL
PASSAGE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL AS LATE AS THURSDAY. HAVE
INDICATED JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN AND INLAND ZONES FOLLOWING THE LIFTING WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE. WILL THEN ADVERTISE MORE TYPICAL LATE SPRING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY THAT REFLECT A
DIURNAL SCENARIO...WITH BEST CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE. DUE TO FLUCTUATIONS BETWEEN
MODEL SOLUTIONS IN FORECAST TIMING OF THE APPROACHING FRONT...HAVE
INCREASED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...YET CAPPED POPS IN THE 40 PERCENT RANGE UNTIL CONSISTENCY
IMPROVES. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES THE FRONT SHOULD BE OFF THE
COAST BY FRIDAY...WITH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FALLING BELOW 15
PERCENT ACCORDINGLY.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL REACH THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE COOLER COASTLINE DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS...WHILE NIGHTTIME LOWS REMAIN MILD IN THE 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL THEN UNDERGO A COOLING TREND LATE IN THE WEEK...INITIALLY
WITHIN THICKER CLOUDS AND BETTER RAIN COVERAGE THURSDAY AND THEN
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AND KCHS
THIS MORNING. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF IFR CIGS FOR NOW AND JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 800 FT. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR
BRIEF IFR CIGS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A SOUTHERLY WIND REGIME WILL DOMINATE TODAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS LOOK TO PEAK 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4
FT. IT COULD GET A LITTLE GUSTY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE ALONG
PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON..INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. FREQUENT MAXIMUM GUSTS LOOK TO REMAIN AROUND 20
KT AND JUST BELOW THE HARBOR/S SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. THIS
WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED THROUGH THE DAY AS ANY INCREASE WOULD
NECESSITATE THE ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY TURN WEST AND NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. PRE AND POST FRONTAL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BE OVERLY IMPRESSIVE WITH MAX SPEEDS RUNNING
ABOUT 10-15 KT. SEAS OF 2-4 FT WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT AS WINDS
TURN OFFSHORE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE
COASTAL WATERS GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT COULD TIGHTEN BY TUESDAY...HOWEVER
WINDS APPEAR TO STAY JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
105 AM EDT FRI APR 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES. CONVECTION BRUSHING COASTAL MCINTOSH COUNTY WILL
PUSH OFFSHORE WITHIN THE HOUR. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED ACTIVITY
TO REDEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC LATER TONIGHT..SOME OF WHICH COULD
BRUSH THE UPPER CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST CLOSER TO SUNRISE.
MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS THERE TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
ON FRIDAY WITH VERY WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY TRAILING IT ACROSS SC.
FRIDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS OUR SC
WATERS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. BY MIDDAY
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SC AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS AS THE VORTICITY ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ONCE THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND
TO WNW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS. INLAND AREAS WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE BEING COOLED DOWN BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GUIDANCE IS BACKING OFF ON IFR CONDITIONS AT KSAV AND KCHS
THIS MORNING. WILL REMOVE MENTION OF IFR CIGS FOR NOW AND JUST
MENTION SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 800 FT. THERE IS STILL A RISK FOR
BRIEF IFR CIGS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LESS THAN 50 PERCENT.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N/NW THROUGH THE WATERS...AND
E/NE WINDS 5-15 KT WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

ON FRIDAY A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
COULD BLOW 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK.
IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT
WILL CROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE REGION THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THURSDAY EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE NC COAST
EXTENDED W/SW OVER THE REGION...MAINTAINING AN EASTERLY FLOW AND
SUBSIDENCE/DEEP LAYER DRY AIR AS DEPICTED BY THE 0Z KCHS SOUNDING.
A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE S/SE
OVERNIGHT...PRODUCING INCREASING CLOUDS AND SUPPORTING ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST/COASTAL
WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING CHARLESTON COUNTY LATE. INTERESTING THAT
THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS NO PRECIPITATION OVER THESE AREAS TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...GIVEN ISOLATED SHOWERS ALREADY OCCURRING SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA THE SOMEWHAT WETTER SOLUTIONS PROVIDED BY RECENT
RUNS OF THE HRRR/RUC13 SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITHIN ONGOING FORECASTS
APPEAR REASONABLE WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

PARAMETERS DO NOT APPEAR TO FAVOR SIGNIFICANT FOG...BUT AREAS OF
STRATUS SHOULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD ONLY FALL A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM LATE THURSDAY
EVENING READINGS IN THE 60S...PERHAPS PUSHING INTO THE UPPER 50S
AT SOME INLAND SC LOCALES. OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL LEVEL OUT
AND EVEN BEGIN TO RISE LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
ON FRIDAY WITH VERY WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY TRAILING IT ACROSS SC.
FRIDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS OUR SC
WATERS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. BY MIDDAY
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SC AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS AS THE VORTICITY ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ONCE THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND
TO WNW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS. INLAND AREAS WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE BEING COOLED DOWN BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. ALSO...A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS. GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CONSISTENT MOS
GUIDANCE TRENDS...INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KSAV
09-13Z. OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS/PRECIPITATION
REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN 00Z TAFS...THUS
MAINTAINED SCATTERED IFR CLOUDS AT KCHS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH N/NW THROUGH THE WATERS...AND
E/NE WINDS 5-15 KT WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SE AT SIMILAR SPEEDS.
SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT
BEYOND 20 NM.

ON FRIDAY A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
COULD BLOW 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK.
IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 242248
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE
AND REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS.

TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AS A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD AREA OF
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MODELS KICKING OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE FAR EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING EASTERN BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES...MAINLY OVERNIGHT. WHILE THE LATEST NAM/HRRR
FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE/NO PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP EVEN
OVERNIGHT...WE HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THESE AREAS
OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS PROG A SURGE OF CAPE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE
WATERS WHICH SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY A MENTION OF THUNDER.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE
ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN. THE
COMBINATION OF INCREASED CLOUDINESS AND ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT
BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT. LOWS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
ON FRIDAY WITH VERY WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY TRAILING IT ACROSS SC.
FRIDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS OUR SC
WATERS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. BY MIDDAY
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SC AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS AS THE VORTICITY ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ONCE THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND
TO WNW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS. INLAND AREAS WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE BEING COOLED DOWN BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. ALSO...A
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY
AT KCHS. GIVEN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND CONSISTENT MOS GUIDANCE
TRENDS...INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR CEILINGS AT KSAV 10-14Z.
OTHERWISE...CONFIDENCE IN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS/PRECIPITATION
REMAINS TOO LOW TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST EAST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A TURN IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-15 KT...PERHAPS UP TO 15-20 KT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS NEAR 60 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2-3 FT WITHIN 20 NM TO 3-4
FT BEYOND.

ON FRIDAY A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
COULD BLOW 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK.
IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JRL/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241942
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
342 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS A WEAK
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE REGION TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE AREA AS A
VIGOROUS MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. AS THIS OCCURS...A BROAD AREA OF
DIFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS A FAST MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT...A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT
NORTHWARD WITH THE MODELS KICKING OFF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY
A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AMONGST THE MODELS IS
THAT THE BEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE FAR EASTERN ZONES INCLUDING EASTERN BERKELEY AND
CHARLESTON COUNTIES. I HAVE MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT CHANCE POP IN
THESE AREAS...AS WELL AS THE MENTION OF THUNDER. THE MODELS PROG A
SURGE OF CAPE FROM THE SOUTH OVER THE WATERS WHICH SHOULD BE
SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE NIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND CLOUD
COVER IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASED
CLOUDINESS AND ENOUGH WIND TO PREVENT BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLING WILL
RESULT IN A MILD NIGHT. LOW ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A PROGRESSIVE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTH CAROLINA
ON FRIDAY WITH VERY WEAK VORTICITY ENERGY TRAILING IT ACROSS SC.
FRIDAY MORNING WE MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR TSTMS ACROSS OUR SC
WATERS AS A SURFACE TROUGH SHIFTS NORTHEAST UP THE COAST. BY MIDDAY
THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SC AND THE
ADJACENT WATERS AS THE VORTICITY ENERGY MOVES IN AHEAD OF A WEAK
COLD FRONT. ANYTHING THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EARLY EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND ONCE THE FLOW SWITCHES AROUND
TO WNW. PARTLY SUNNY SKIES AND A WARM ADVECTION REGIME MUCH OF THE
DAY WILL ALLOW HIGHS TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE 80S.

AN UPPER RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES
OVER THE WEEKEND WITH DRY WEATHER AND WARM TEMPS. INLAND AREAS WILL
RISE WELL INTO THE 80S BOTH DAYS WHILE COASTAL LOCATIONS REACH THE
MID TO UPPER 70S BEFORE BEING COOLED DOWN BY AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW
AS I THINK THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AS IT USUALLY IS
IN SUCH ONSHORE REGIMES. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. KCHS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY...BUT
THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PERSIST EAST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS. AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST...A WEAK
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL ALSO BRING ABOUT A TURN IN THE
LOW LEVEL FLOW FROM MORE SOUTHEASTERLY TO MORE SOUTHERLY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10-15 KT...PERHAPS UP TO 15-20 KT IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS NEAR 60 NM. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE...BECOMING 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND.

ON FRIDAY A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE ENHANCEMENT ALONG THE COAST. WINDS IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR
COULD BLOW 15-20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. WINDS AND SEAS WILL DROP OFF
CONSIDERABLY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WEAK BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH. AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS ACROSS THE
WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND...WE EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THOUGH A WEAK
SEA BREEZE WILL DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON.

WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK.
IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241741
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
141 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THE OVERALL FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE
ONLY ADJUSTMENT WAS TO BUMP WINDS UP THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. OBSERVATIONS
AT FORT PULASKI...FOLLY BEACH...AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR HAVE
ROUTINELY BEEN IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS.
OTHERWISE...NO NOTABLE CHANGES.

LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY OCCURRING
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 80S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROMINENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EVENING WITH JUST MODERATE
SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. OVERNIGHT...LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE IN THE ONSHORE FLOW AND THERE ARE
INDICATIONS OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE...WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CEILINGS TO DEVELOP. I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST VFR FOR NOW
AS I THINK THE GUIDANCE IS A BIT TOO AGGRESSIVE AS IT USUALLY IS
IN SUCH ONSHORE REGIMES. WE MAY SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
LIFTS THROUGH THE AREA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. KCHS HAS
THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM IN THE VICINITY...BUT
THE OVERALL PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT
THIS POINT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT...EXCEPT 15-20 KT ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE
AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241416
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
INHERITED FORECAST. THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE
AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE AND EAST OF THE AREA. NORTHEAST FLOW CURRENTLY OCCURRING
WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION WITH A
PROGRESSIVE EMBEDDED SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER TODAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
JUST INLAND OF THE COAST. GUIDANCE STILL SUPPORTS SOME HIGHS
APPROACHING THE MID 80S FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THERE
CONTINUE TO BE VERY LOW CHANCES OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG THE
ALTAMAHA THIS AFTERNOON...BUT I HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST DRY AS
MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT A PROMINENT MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
WE SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF DIURNAL CUMULUS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST
MARINE...ST/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241026
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
24/06Z GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 09Z RAP HAVE TRENDED WARMER WITH HIGHS
THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WILL EXPAND THE
AREA OF MID-80S TO MATCH THIS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WILL BE
MADE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES
AND MOVE STEADILY INLAND...AIDED BY THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16...BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA TO THE LOWER-MID
80S ACROSS ELSEWHERE...WARMEST FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH THE SHELF
WATERS STILL RATHER COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240752
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PASS OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
BECOME SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENTUALLY TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FARTHER OFFSHORE AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN FOCUSED ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...ALTHOUGH MIXING RATIOS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES LATE. A ROBUST SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE BEACHES
AND MOVE STEADILY INLAND...AIDED BY THE INCREASED SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE
TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TO ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...MAINLY SOUTH OF I-16...BUT PROBABILITIES LOOK TOO LOW TO
MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ATTM. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER
70S/NEAR 80 ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA TO THE LOWER-MID
80S ACROSS ELSEWHERE...WARMEST FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
BEACH LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN CONSIDERABLY COOLER WITH THE SHELF
WATERS STILL RATHER COOL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...RETURN FLOW WILL BE IN FULL SWING AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND HIGH PRESSURE SLIPS FARTHER OFFSHORE.
MODELS SHOW SOME WEAK ISENTROPIC ASSENT DEVELOPING FROM SOUTH-
NORTH AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES...BUT NONE OF THE VARIOUS MEMBERS
ARE OVERLY AGGRESSIVE IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF NOCTURNAL SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS MOST OF THE LIFT WILL GO TOWARDS CLOUD FORMATION GIVEN
THE HIGH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS. WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST WHERE SOME
MARINE BASED CONVECTION COULD BRUSH AREAS FROM ROUGHLY FOLLY BEACH
TO MCCLELLANVILLE VERY EARLY THURSDAY. IT WILL BE A WARM NIGHT
WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING LIKELY KEEPING THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM
FULLY DECOUPLING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA TO THE LOWER-MID 60S ELSEWHERE. THIS IS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE THE 00Z GUIDANCE CONSENSUS.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD ADVANCING H5
SHORTWAVE JUST TO OUR NORTH. WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS DURING
MORNING HOURS AS A RESULT...MAINLY ALONG THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
THEN BE POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING
PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 700-1200 J/KG AND LIFTED INDEX
VALUES BETWEEN -1 TO -3C. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE H5
SHORTWAVE AND A ARRIVING COLD FRONT ARE GREATEST. ALTHOUGH A CAPPING
INVERSION WILL SUPPRESS MOST DEEP CONVECTION...WE CAN NOT RULE OUT A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO BY FRIDAY EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
DIMINISH WITH COLD FROPA AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A BUILDING
RIDGE ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER
DAY OF WARM TEMPS WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT
SHOULD STALL OR DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THUS A
RAIN-FREE DAY IS EXPECTED. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL ALLOW
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO REACH THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING SHOULD RESULT IN
EVEN WARMER TEMPS THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESSES FAVOR OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AWAY FROM
THE COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
WILL LIKELY KEEP WARMER TEMPS OVER THE SOUTHEAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE COOLING A
FEW DEGREES ON WEDNESDAY AS CLOUD COVER INCREASES WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTING OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WHILE AN H5 SHORTWAVE
PASSES OVERHEAD. PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD THEN INCREASE TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MOVING COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT WE COULD SEE AN
ENHANCED PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY AS STRONGER INSTABILITY AND WIND FIELDS SET UP OVER THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE
STRONG...ESPECIALLY ON WEDNESDAY DURING PEAK HEATING. SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS COULD PERSIST INTO MUCH OF THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS OFFSHORE EARLY WHILE THE LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH REMAINS
POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. OVERALL TEMPS SHOULD COOL OFF
POST FROPA...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY VEER MORE SOUTHERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF THE COAST AND A ROBUST
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TAKES HOLD. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 10-15
KT WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL DOMINATE AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS
EVEN FARTHER OFFSHORE WINDS. WINDS WILL BE 10-15 KT WITH SEAS 2-3
FT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO A MARGINAL SURGE OF WINDS
BETWEEN 15-20 KTS LATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE
WATERS SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING TO THE EASTERN CONUS. WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY...BUT SHOULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BY TUESDAY
NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ENHANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
ADVANCING TO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MIDWEEK. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 3-4 FT. BY
TUESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD INCREASE/BUILD TO 20-25 KTS AND
4-6 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE FORECAST IS ON GOOD SHAPE AND ONLY REQUIRED MINOR ADJUSTMENTS
TO HOURLY PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR SUB-VFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AT KSAV
TOWARDS THE END OF THE 06Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. PER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TRENDS AND NEW
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO
10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND
AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BY EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST









000
FXUS62 KCHS 240246
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1046 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST INCREASE IN NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS EXCEPT
IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. PER LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TRENDS AND NEW
GUIDANCE INCLUDING THE 00Z NAM...LOWERED WIND SPEEDS A BIT TO
10-15 KT OVERNIGHT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS STARTING 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM WILL BUILD TO 2-3 FT NEARSHORE AND
AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE
THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY
BY EARLY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER
THE WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW 15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO
HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240148
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
948 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH
THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT
DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS UNTIL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM N/NE TO S/SW
OVERNIGHT...SUPPORTING A MODEST SURGE OF NE WINDS ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST
AREAS EXCEPT IN THE 60S AT THE COAST.

PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP FOR A TIME...ESPECIALLY UNTIL NE WINDS
INCREASE...BUT POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG DOES NOT WARRANT A
MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY. 00Z TAF DETAILS
ADDRESS CHANGES IN WIND DIRECTION/SPEED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. AS OF LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING...THIS PROCESS
APPEARED TO BE EVOLVING SOMEWHAT MORE SLOWLY THAN INDICATED IN
PREVIOUS FORECASTS...THUS DELAYED THE ONSET OF INCREASING NE WINDS
ACCORDINGLY. EVENTUALLY...NE WINDS COULD SURGE TO AS HIGH AS
15-20 KT...INITIALLY ACROSS SC WATERS THEN ACROSS GA WATERS LATE
TONIGHT. SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT LATE....HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SPR
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 232250
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS SUCH AS
DEWPOINTS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY.

TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL SUPPORT A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT.
THE NORTHEAST WIND SHOULD PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE
FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL GIVE WAY TO A TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT/INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. WINDS COULD SURGE TO 15-20 KT ACROSS SC
WATERS BY LATER THIS EVENING AND ACROSS GA WATERS LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS OF 1-2 FT WILL BUILD TO 2-4 FT LATE....HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH
THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON
THURSDAY WHERE IT WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK
COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE REGION TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE DEEP UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES
BY THURSDAY MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO RIDGE DOWN THE EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS. AS THE HIGH
DOES SO...A TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING NORTHEAST
FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. THIS INCREASE IN FLOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PREVENT IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS DESPITE THE CLEAR
SKIES. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW 50S FAR INLAND...TO
THE UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...WITHIN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SHIFT OFFSHORE JUST NORTH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE DUE TO THE ONSHORE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER WHERE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED.
THEREFORE...EXPECT RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SCATTERED CUMULUS CLOUDS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS
SOME GREATER COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE
MOISTURE WILL BE MORE PLENTIFUL. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE COOL
BIAS IN THE MOS BASED GUIDANCE RECENTLY...SO DESPITE THE ONSHORE
SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 IN
SOUTHEAST SC AND IN THE LOWER 80S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA. THE SEA
BREEZE WILL BE RATHER PRONOUNCED HOWEVER...WITH MANY LOCATIONS ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST NOT SEEING TEMPERATURES GET OUT OF THE UPPER
60S.

THURSDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED NOT FAR OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WILL DRIFT FARTHER FROM SHORE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ALLOWING A
WEAK WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA AND WINDS TO VEER
SOUTHERLY. ENHANCED CONVERGENCE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
GENERATE ISOLATED CONVECTION...WHICH COULD ADVECT ONSHORE ACROSS
SOUTH COASTAL SC OVERNIGHT. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
NORTH OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY...BUT FORCING FOR ASCENT AND
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE ALONG ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY COULD RESULT IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGHOUT THE DAY FRIDAY. RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK/DRY COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST FRIDAY WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES ACROSS THE AREA. THERE APPEARS TO BE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS ON SATURDAY...WHICH SHOULD EASILY BOOST
TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 80S...IF NOT WARMER IN SOME LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GENERALLY QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND RIDGE DOWN THE
EAST SIDE OF THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. AS IT DOES...A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHICH WILL SUPPORT
AN INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL PRIMARILY
RANGE FROM 10-15 KT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR OCCASIONAL GUSTS
GREATER THAN 15 KT LATE. SEAS WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20
NM...INCREASING TO 2-3 FT LATE. OVER THE OUTER WATERS SEAS WILL
RANGE FROM 2-3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JAQ






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231737
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TODAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS BELOW.

LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALOFT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA...I HAVE WARMED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A VERY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP WITH NO
REAL FORECAST CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY. THROUGH THE
PERIOD...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND THEN
EAST OR SOUTHEASTERLY ON THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ST/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231402
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATE THIS MORNING...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
EXCEPT FOR A SMALL PATCH OF STRATUS STRETCHING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ALOFT...A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE CURRENTLY ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BEGIN TO BUILD INTO
THE EASTERN CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT
LAKES REGION WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD INTO THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH
THE DAY. CURRENT OBSERVATIONS SHOW THAT CONSIDERABLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR NOTED TO THE NORTH NEAR THE NC/SC
STATE LINE. TEMPERATURES HAVE A WARM START THIS MORNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE LOW 70S. WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS
VALUES FROM THE 12Z SOUNDING AND MODEL DATA...I HAVE WARMED HIGHS
A DEGREE OR TWO. OTHERWISE...A VERY QUIET DAY IS ON TAP WITH NO
REAL FORECAST CONCERNS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...IFR CEILINGS WILL LIKELY HANG ON THROUGH 15Z AND THEN
QUICKLY SCATTER OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...ST/BSH
MARINE...ST/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231054
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
654 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE REGION
THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...RIBBON OF IFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT. VFR OTHERWISE. VFR AT KCHS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230736
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD DRIFT IN FROM
THE NORTH LATE THIS WEEKEND BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS OVER THE
AREA AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...SKIES HAVE CLEARED NICELY EARLY THIS MORNING
WITHIN A LARGE RIBBON OF DNVA/SUBSIDENCE LEFT IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING SHORTWAVE ENERGY OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA. CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUNDS LEFT OVER FROM RAINS TUESDAY
EVENING ARE SUPPORTING LOW STRATUS AND FOG ACROSS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THIS FOG COULD SPREAD EAST AND
BECOME A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD/DENSE PRIOR TO SUNRISE WITH THE COLD
FRONT NOT FORECASTED TO PASS SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER UNTIL MID-
MORNING OR SO. THIS AREA CONTINUES TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. FARTHER NORTH...SOME PATCHY FOG COULD
DEVELOP...BUT HIGHER LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER WILL LIKELY LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF ANY FOG THAT TRIES TO
FORM.

TODAY...A WEST TO EAST ORIENTED COLD FRONT WILL BACKDOOR INTO THE
REGION THIS MORNING...PASSING SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER BY LATE
MORNING. ONLY VERY MINOR COLD AIR ADVECTION IS NOTED BEHIND THE
FRONT...BUT MODELS SHOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION QUICKLY BECOMING
POSITIVE BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. EXPECT ONLY A SLIGHT DECREASE IN
HIGH TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO TUESDAY WITH MOST AREAS REACHING THE
UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SHOW A VERY WEAK SEA BREEZE DEVELOPING ALONG THE SURF ZONE
THIS AFTERNOON AND ONLY PUSHING INLAND BY A FEW MILES...MAINLY
OVER NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA. THE BEACHES WILL LIKELY BE A BIT
WARMER THAN USUAL FOR LATE APRIL AS A RESULT...BUT TEMPERATURES
WILL BE BEGIN TO DROP A BIT BY MID-AFTERNOON AS THE TERMINALLY
DIRECT CIRCULATION MEANDERS VERY SLOWLY INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL FINALLY BRIDGE THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS TONIGHT AS THE REMNANTS OF THE COLD FRONT SINK ACROSS
NORTHERN FLORIDA. MODELS SHOW THE GRADIENT TIGHTENING BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYNOPTIC FEATURES AFTER MIDNIGHT...WHICH WILL LIKELY
PREVENT FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER...ESPECIALLY FROM
LATE EVENING ON. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE
UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AT THE COAST WITH A FEW MID 60S ALONG THE
GEORGIA BARRIER ISLANDS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS WILL HAVE MORE
INFLUENCE.

THURSDAY...QUIET/DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE GRADUALLY SLIDES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...CAUSING
NORTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME SOUTHERLY BY THE AFTERNOON. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPS THROUGHOUT THE COURSE OF THE DAY WHILE
A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT OCCURS ALOFT. LATEST 1000-850 MB
THICKNESS VALUES ALONG WITH THE DOWNSLOPING WIND SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE
COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE MORE MILD THAN
THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS TO START OFF THE DAY
AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT
THAT SHIFTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST FRIDAY EVENING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE PASSES OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
FRONT EARLY FRIDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES DURING PEAK HEATING WITH SBCAPES
APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES APPEAR HIGHEST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE FORCING FROM THE
FRONT WILL BE GREATEST. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH WITH FROPA
AND DIURNAL HEAT LOSS EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS
VALUES ALONG WITH A PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW
MID 80S AS WELL OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN
LOW TO MID 60S BEHIND THE FRONT.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HOLD OVER THE AREA UNDER A ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT. A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER DAY
OF WARMER TEMPS WITH 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES FAVORING AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 80S OVER MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST. A WEAK AND DRY COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
BEFORE STALLING OR DISSIPATING NEAR OR OVER THE AREA. REGARDLESS OF
POSITION...THE WEAK FRONT WILL ONLY HAVE A MARGINAL INFLUENCE TO
TEMPS AS A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND DEVELOPS BEHIND IT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS LOOK FAIRLY DRY TO START OFF THE WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE
LINGERS OVER THE AREA WELL AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW ALONG
WITH MID LVL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A
WARMING TREND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW/MID 80S SUNDAY
AND POSSIBLY MONDAY BEFORE COOLING A FEW DEGREES FOR AFTERNOON
HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHIFTS
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ON MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW IN PLACE...BEFORE PRECIP CHANCES INCREASE TUESDAY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. GREATEST
CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD OCCUR AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OVER THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SO THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL
IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH THE INITIAL TRAFFIC PUSH THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET WITH SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY USELESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS 08-12Z WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM
10-12Z...HOWEVER IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURN OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

KCHS...VFR FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS LATE
MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND WEAKEN DURING THE MORNING
IN THE WAKE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. THE WIND FIELD WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND MUDDLED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
INTERTWINED WITH THE FORMATION OF A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
SEAS WILL RANGE 1-2 FT NEARSHORE...2-3 FT OFFSHORE.

TONIGHT...A MORE SOLID EAST TO NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIDGES THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILDS SOUTH. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS BUILDING 2-3 FT ALL LEGS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
INTO EARLY FRIDAY...VEERING NORTHERLY WINDS TO SOUTHERLY BY EARLY
WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL THEN QUICKLY ADVANCE OVER THE WATERS
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AT OR BELOW
15 KTS AND SEAS BUILDING NO HIGHER THAN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS ON MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/DPB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 230445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1245 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE
NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK
AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SHORTWAVE ENERGY HAS PUSHED OFF THE COAST AND ATTENDANT
DNVA/SUBSIDENCE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE ANY REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME LOW STRATUS LIKELY TO
REFORM AS THE HIGHER CLOUD CANOPIES PUSH OFFSHORE. A LIGHTER WIND
FIELD COUPLED WITH WET GROUND AND CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT
AREAS OF FOG ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THROUGH
SUNRISE. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WILL
DEVELOP...BUT SOME FOG IS LIKELY. WILL BE WATCHING THIS AREA
CAREFULLY FOR A POSSIBLE DENSE FOG ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...NUDGED
LOWS THIS MORNING UP A DEGREE OR SO BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KSAV...LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA
AS CLOUDS CLEAR. WINDS WILL BE A BIT LIGHTER OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA SO THERE IS A LIKELIHOOD THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL
IMPACT THE KSAV TERMINAL WITH THE INITIAL TRAFFIC PUSH THIS
MORNING. IT IS UNCLEAR ATTM HOW LOW CONDITIONS WILL GET WITH SHORT
TERM GUIDANCE ESSENTIALLY USELESS AT THIS JUNCTURE. WILL CALL FOR
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS 08-12Z WITH TEMPO IFR VSBYS/CIGS FROM
10-12Z...HOWEVER IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT PREVAILING LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. WILL AMEND AS NECESSARY. ONCE THE FOG AND
STRATUS BURN OFF...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS.

KCHS...VFR FOR THE PERIOD. SOME LIGHT GROUND FOG COULD DEVELOP
THROUGH SUNRISE...BUT WINDS SHOULD KEEP ANY IMPACTS LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH GEORGIA WATERS. IN
GENERAL...OFFSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE NW TOWARD THE N. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
953 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIMINISHING AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST BY AROUND
MIDNIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THEN GENERALLY DECREASE...ALTHOUGH AREAS OF
LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCED BY EVENING RAINFALL COULD SUPPORT
SOME FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...SHOWERS HAD ENDED AT KCHS AND WERE POISED
TO EXIT KSAV. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z AND 12Z-
14Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHERE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE TUESDAY EVENING...OUTFLOW FROM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH HAD DISRUPTED THE PRESSURE PATTERN
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS...AND THIS REGIME WILL
CONTINUE TO PRESS SOUTH/EAST THROUGH GEORGIA WATERS. IN
GENERAL...OFFSHORE WINDS 15 KT OR LESS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND WINDS WILL VEER THROUGH THE NW TOWARD THE N. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT ACROSS
THE OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 222338
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO ADVANCE TOWARD THE E/SE...DEEPER INTO
THE FORECAST AREA AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. LIGHTNING WAS
PRIMARILY CONFINED TO MULTICELL CONVECTION ALONG THE I-16
CORRIDOR WHERE A POOL OF SURFACE BASED CAPES AROUND 500 J/KG AND
LIFTED INDICES -2 TO -3C EXISTED ALONG/SOUTH OF OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PUSHING INTO THIS REGION FROM THE N/W. LOW LEVEL
INVERTED-V PROFILES MARKED BY 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES 7-8 C/KM AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPES 500-700 J/KG SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS
30-40 MPH MAINLY ALONG THE I-16 CORRIDOR BUT EVEN NE ALONG THE SC
COAST WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST POPS TAPERED FROM CHANCE/LIKELY
UNTIL LATER THIS EVENING TO SLIGHT CHANCE THEN LESS THEN 15
PERCENT OVERNIGHT.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GUSTY SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS THIS EVENING...WHILE GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT KSAV. THEN...SHOWERS WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF
THE 00Z TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLED WITHIN THE COLD
FRONTAL TROUGH COULD SUPPORT FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BETWEEN 06Z-09Z
AND 12Z-14Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
REMAINS INSUFFICIENT TO INCLUDE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS DURING
THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 222207
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
607 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE
END OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
EARLY TUESDAY EVENING...SCATTERED PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WAS
ADVANCING THROUGH INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...MOVING
TOWARD THE E/SE AND HEADED FOR THE COAST. DUE IN PART TO MIXED
LAYER CAPES AT OR BELOW 500 J/KG UPDRAFTS WERE NOT PARTICULARLY
DEEP OR PERSISTENT...THUS LIGHTNING REMAINED SPORADIC/FAIRLY
SPARSE. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL INVERTED-V PROFILES MARKED BY 0-3 KM
LAPSE RATES 8-9 C/KM AND DOWNDRAFT CAPES 800-900 J/KG SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIND GUSTS 30-40 MPH EVEN WHERE SHOWERS OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...DEEP MOIST UPDRAFTS WILL BRIEFLY/OCCASIONALLY SUPPORT
A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND EVEN SMALL HAIL GIVEN
HAIL CAPES AS HIGH AS 100-200 J/KG AND WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS JUST
BELOW 10K FT. RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGEST EVENING POPS TAPERED FROM CHANCE/LIKELY INLAND TO
SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE AT THE COAST.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLY
ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE EXPECTED
LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN THE TAF/S
FOR THE TIME BEING. WILL AMEND TAFS IF NECESSARY GIVEN NEAR TERM
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ/SPR
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 222023
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
423 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND BEFORE
WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER COLD FRONT
TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH NEARING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. MEANWHILE A SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH POSITIONED ACROSS THE SC
MIDLANDS AND EAST-CENTRAL GA...WITH THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT STILL
WELL BACK TO THE WEST EXTENDING FROM THE OHIO VALLEY...THROUGH THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A FAIRLY
EXTENSIVE CUMULUS FIELD HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE AREA RESULTING IN
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES...BUT SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH REMAIN JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPERATURES SOARED
INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON WITH A DOWNSLOPE FLOW ALOFT AND
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT TEMPERATURES ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST ARE ONLY IN THE MID AND UPPER 60S DUE TO THE
SEA BREEZE WHICH REMAINS PINNED TO THE COAST DUE TO THE WESTERLY
SYNOPTIC FLOW.

TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH WILL ENTER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA BY 5 PM...THEN PROGRESS TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
LATE THIS EVENING. COVERAGE COULD BE A BIT LOWER ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA...BUT STILL FORECASTING ABOUT A 30-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. MODEL
SOUNDINGS SHOW SOME WEAK INSTABILITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH...WITH CAPE VALUES PEAKING UPWARDS OF AROUND 750
J/KG AND LI/S FALLING TO AS LOW AS -3C. UPDRAFT STRENGTH DOES NOT
APPEAR ALL THAT FAVORABLE...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY ENOUGH SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. COULD NOT
RULE OUT A STRONG THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS TO 35-40 MPH GIVEN AN INVERTED V-SOUNDING AND MINIMAL
DCAPE VALUES AROUND 300-400 J/KG...AND ALSO SOME SMALL HAIL WITH
WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS JUST BELOW 10K FT.

ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE THIS EVENING OR
DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...A WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS AND
WILL LIMIT THE MOISTURE AVAILABLE AHEAD OF THE PRIMARY
FRONT. THEREFORE...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE TO SUPPORT SOME PATCHY FOG OR LOW CLOUDS JUST AHEAD
OF THE PRIMARY FRONT...AND THE FORECAST MAY NEED TO TREND MORE IN
THIS DIRECTION WITH LATER UPDATES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S..WITH SOME LOWER 60S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WE WILL START THE DAY IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP RIDGE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BUILD IN
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. VERY DRY AIR IN THE
MID/UPPER LEVELS COMBINED WITH THE LACK OF FORCING AND STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE COOLER THAN TUESDAY BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THEY WILL STILL TOP
OUT AROUND NORMAL. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S IN MOST
AREAS.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WILL
REACH ITS MAX INFLUENCE ON THURSDAY AS THE AXIS OF THE FEATURE MOVES
ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THEN BY FRIDAY...A MORE ZONAL FLOW WILL
MOVE IN ALOFT IN RESPONSE TO A CLOSED LOW PROGRESSING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES REGION. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE EAST OF THE FORECAST
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH FRIDAY. A
FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AND MAY HELP TO SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AS THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION REMAINS IN PLACE
PER MODEL SOUNDINGS. BUT BY FRIDAY...THE INVERSION WEAKENS ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR 500-1000 J/KG WITHIN A BROAD CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. POPS HAVE BEEN
KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CHANCE RANGE. TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY WILL BE
ONCE AGAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL...HELD DOWN A BIT BY
THE ONSHORE FLOW. FRIDAY WILL THEN SEE VALUES IN THE 80S THANKS TO
THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW LEVEL JETTING IN THE WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME
AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP
SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ELEVATED UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT MUCH OF
THIS EVENING. ONCE THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATE
THIS EVENING OR DURING THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...THE FLOW WILL
SHIFT WESTERLY AND DIMINISH TO 10 TO 15 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. SEAS WILL
REMAIN 2-3 FT ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT ACROSS THE
OUTER GA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...GENERALLY QUIET CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND THEN SLIDE BY TO THE EAST THURSDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL
START OFF WITH NORTHERLY FLOW WHICH WILL VEER AROUND TO MORE
SOUTHERLY BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ANOTHER FAST MOVING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH OVER THE WEEKEND WITH MORE HIGH PRESSURE BY SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS...WITH SEAS 2-4 FT WEDNESDAY THEN 1-3 FT
THEREAFTER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
150 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...HAVE ADJUSTED FORECAST HIGHS UPWARDS BY
AS MUCH AS SEVERAL DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. HIGHS NOW FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID TO PERHAPS UPPER
80S IN MANY AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SEA BREEZE WILL
REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES ONLY BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S ALONG THE BEACHES.

W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS WILL WARM...PERHAPS SOLID MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER
ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS
AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND ZONES TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME
FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS
AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF 1.4 INCH PWATS SLIDES THROUGH.
OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR UPDRAFT POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER
RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE DEW
POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN MIXING OUT MORE. THE
DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY PINNED TO THE COAST.
WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR LATE DAY MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV. A BAND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLY ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO
CROSS THE TERMINALS IN THE 23-03Z TIME FRAME...BUT GIVEN THE
EXPECTED LIMITED COVERAGE HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS IN
THE TAF/S FOR THE TIME BEING. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
EARLY WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR
PATCHY FOG TO PRECEDE ITS PASSAGE MAINLY IN THE 09-13Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. SEAS TODAY
RANGING FROM 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE
20-60 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED
MARINE LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE
NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...DPB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...PERHAPS SOLID
MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND ZONES
TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF 1.4 INCH
PWATS SLIDES THROUGH. OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN
MIXING OUT MORE. THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE
FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY
PINNED TO THE COAST. WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR LATE DAY MOST
AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SMALL CAVEATS
INCLUDE A SHORT WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE CONVECTIVE RAINS MAY
BRUSH THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS
OR PATCHY FOG IN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES WOULD
SEEM TO FALL IN THE 23Z TUE TO 03 WED TIME FRAME AND THE 18Z
CYCLE MAY NEED AN ADDITION OF VCSH OR VCTS ONCE TIMING CAN BE
PINNED DOWN A LITTLE BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. LIGHT WEST
WINDS THIS MORNING MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS TODAY RANGING FROM
2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MARINE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
729 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...PERHAPS SOLID
MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND ZONES
TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED
COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF 1.4 INCH
PWATS SLIDES THROUGH. OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED FOR
CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR UPDRAFT
POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND PERHAPS EVEN
MIXING OUT MORE. THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS UNFAVORABLE
FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA BREEZE MAINLY
PINNED TO THE COAST. WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR LATE DAY MOST
AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. SMALL CAVEATS
INCLUDE A SHORT WINDOW THIS EVENING WHERE CONVECTIVE RAINS MAY
BRUSH THE COASTAL CORRIDOR AND PERHAPS SOME LATE NIGHT LOW CLOUDS
OR PATCHY FOG IN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. LOW-END SHOWER CHANCES WOULD
SEEM TO FALL IN THE 23Z TUE TO 03 WED TIME FRAME AND THE 18Z
CYCLE MAY NEED AN ADDITION OF VCSH OR VCTS ONCE TIMING CAN BE
PINNED DOWN A LITTLE BETTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH
SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. LIGHT WEST
WINDS THIS MORNING MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS TODAY RANGING FROM
2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MARINE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 220812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
412 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY DRIFT IN FROM THE NORTH THIS WEEKEND
BEFORE WARMER CONDITIONS RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK AHEAD OF A STRONGER
COLD FRONT TO THE WEST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
REGION. AREAS OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE BEEN INCREASING ACROSS THE
MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE OF SOUTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK LEAD
SHORT WAVE PASSING EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS SUBTLE RIDGE-FLATTENING
FEATURE WILL MOVE BY PRIOR TO MID MORNING LEAVING BROAD MORNING
SUBSIDENCE IN IT/S WAKE. A BIT OF VERY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WAS
AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA THIS MORNING WITH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO
MID 50S WITH SOME COOLER RURAL AREAS DIPPING INTO THE UPPER 40S
EARLY THIS MORNING.

W FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER THIS MORNING HOUR WILL ALLOW TEMPS
TO QUICKLY WARM BY MIDDAY AS W FLOW TYPICALLY DOES THIS TIME OF
YEAR. BY THIS AFTERNOON...PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL INCREASE
AND TEMPS SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S...PERHAPS SOLID
MID 80S MANY AREAS GIVEN LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS. THE GFS AND
ECMWF CONTINUE TO WIDELY DIFFER ON COVERAGE/TIMING OF PRE-FRONTAL
CONVECTION WITH VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS OFFERING REASONABLE
SOLUTIONS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVING INTO OUR INLAND
ZONES TOWARD THE 20Z-21Z TIME FRAME. ADDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR
SCATTERED COVERAGE A COUPLE HOURS AROUND SUNSET AS THE RIBBON OF
1.4 INCH PWATS SLIDES THROUGH. OVERALL...THINKING HAS NOT CHANGED
FOR CONVECTIVE INTENSITY. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND POOR
UPDRAFT POTENTIAL PREVAIL PER RECENT INSPECTION OF PROXIMITY
SOUNDINGS SHOWING SURFACE DEW POINTS STUCK IN THE MID 50S AND
PERHAPS EVEN MIXING OUT MORE. THE DEEP LAYERED WESTERLY FLOW LOOKS
UNFAVORABLE FOR MUCH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING WITH THE SEA
BREEZE MAINLY PINNED TO THE COAST. WE MAINTAINED 20/30 POP FOR
LATE DAY MOST AREAS AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT AND SLIGHTLY
DEEPER MOISTURE.

MAINTAINED LOWER END POPS FOR THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO DECREASING
CLOUDS LATE AS THE FRONT MOVES OFF THE COAST PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. AHEAD
OF THE FRONT...TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN MILD DURING THE EVENING WITH
READINGS 65-70 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE THE
REGION BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SLIDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
QUIET/DRY CONDITIONS INTO MIDWEEK...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS ON
WEDNESDAY MODIFYING ON THURSDAY AS A NORTHERLY FLOW BECOMES
SOUTHERLY IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. HIGH TEMPS
WILL RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ON WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW 80S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST. BY THURSDAY...THE SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL FAVOR AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER
80S...HIGHEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

FRIDAY...WE SHOULD SEE A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER TO START OFF THE
DAY AS MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT OCCURS AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONT THAT
STALLS NORTH OF THE AREA. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY DIMINISH
WITH DIURNAL HEAT LOSS IN THE EVENING. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY DRY THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...A WEAK COLD FRONT COULD APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE
SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY...LEADING TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A SHOWER
AND/OR THUNDERSTORM. AT THIS TIME...THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL NORTH
OF THE AREA...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A RAIN-FREE FORECAST. OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE LOW/MID 80S
EACH DAY. CHANCES OF PRECIP WILL THEN INCREASE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
AS SOUTHERLY FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES. A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE
LATEST FORECAST AS INSTABILITY INCREASES WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN
THE MID 80S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GREATEST CHANCES OF PRECIP SHOULD
OCCUR ON TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE SOUTHEAST DURING MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITH PRE-FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT NOT TOO IMPRESSIVE ON THE 00Z MODEL RUN. AT LEAST A
SLIGHT POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SHRA/TSRA AT THE TERMINALS FROM 23Z
TODAY TO 03Z WEDNESDAY...CHANCES WELL BELOW ANY TAF MENTIONS AT
THIS STAGE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SMALL CHANCES FOR BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT IN THE FRONTAL TROUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY. LOW CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WITH SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WARM AIR ADVECTION REGIME OVER THE WATERS TODAY...WINDS WILL BE
PICKING UP FROM THE SW THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEYOND 20 NM
OFFSHORE AND LOCALLY ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE. LIGHT WEST
WINDS THIS MORNING MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS TODAY RANGING FROM
2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 3-5 FT IN LINGERING SWELL WAVE 20-60 NM
OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SW JETTING IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED MARINE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING BUT 20 KT FLOW MAINLY WELL OFFSHORE NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LATE TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH WITH VEERING FLOW TO A MORE NW TO N COMPONENT OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS TOWARD DAYBREAK ON WED.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A SHORT-LIVED NORTHERLY SURGE COULD
PRODUCE PERIODS OF 15-20 KT WINDS BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS/SEAS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE OVER THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KT WHILE SEAS BUILD NO HIGHER 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB








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