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000
FXUS62 KCHS 260609
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CYCLOGENESIS UNDERWAY RIGHT OFF THE COAST AS PRES FALLS WERE INCREASING
AND SECONDARY LOW PRES TAKING SHAPE. A WET OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINS JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE IN THE FORECAST AREA.
LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR/RAIN OVERNIGHT WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS AT TIMES AS
RAINS INTENSITIES FLUCTUATE AT THE TERMINALS. CIGS SHOULD LIFT TO
MVFR WITH RAIN COVERAGE WANING AFTER DAYBREAK AND CERTAINLY BY
MID/LATE MORNING. CLEARING INITIALLY AT KSAV BY MID AFTERNOON WILL
BE SLOWER AT KCHS AS A SECONDARY UPPER DISTURBANCE SWINGS THROUGH.
VFR WEATHER WILL RETURN TO KCHS PERHAPS BY MID AFTERNOON BUT IT
COULD BE JUST A BIT SLOWER. VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY AT BOTH
TERMINALS.

WINDS WILL BE GUSTY TODAY AS THE COASTAL STORM DEPARTS AND COOLER
AND DRIER AIR WORKS IN FROM THE WNW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN STILL EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING
LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT
HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY MORNING.
IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AS STRONG COLD
ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT.
THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE COUPLET WITH RESULTING
ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE
TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS OUR GA WATERS OUT 60
NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM. FOR THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SMALL WINDOW
OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO GET SOME GOOD
PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS THE LOW
STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KSAV RECORD RAINFALL...OLD RECORD OF 2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899 WAS
BROKEN WITH 2.13 INCHES ON TUESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 4 PM EST
     THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 260321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON RAINFALL INTENSITY WORDING FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO FILL IN
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE AREA OVER
THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL INTO THE COMMA MOISTURE/PRECIP SHIELD OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT STILL EXPECT 0.5 TO
1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 260321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CONTINUED TO PULL BACK ON RAINFALL INTENSITY WORDING FOR TONIGHT
GIVEN LATEST TRENDS ON RADAR SHOWING BULK OF RAINFALL REMAINING OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER...GIVEN A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH STILL TO THE WEST...EXPECT PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO FILL IN
LATER TONIGHT BETWEEN THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC AND THE AREA OVER
THE MIDLANDS OF SC AND AND SOUTH CENTRAL GA. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
REGION WILL FALL INTO THE COMMA MOISTURE/PRECIP SHIELD OF THE
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW SYSTEM LATER TONIGHT. HAVE ALSO MADE SOME
SLIGHT DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS TO THE QPF...BUT STILL EXPECT 0.5 TO
1.25 INCHES BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 260022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS LOW SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINING THE THE DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. HAVE BACKED OFF HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 260022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A STRONG...FULL LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...A CORRESPONDING ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE
CENTER IS DEVELOPING FROM THE EASTERN GULF INTO THE COASTAL WATERS
OF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.. THIS LOW SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN TONIGHT AS IT
CONSOLIDATES AND MOVES NORTHEASTWARD. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
SHOWING THE WIDESPREAD/HEAVIER RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE ATLANTIC
WATERS. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW DEVELOPS LATER TONIGHT...EXPECT
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN TO SPREAD FURTHER WESTWARD
ACROSS THE AREA...COMBINING THE THE DYNAMICS FROM THE APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH. HAVE BACKED OFF HEAVY RAINFALL WORDING UNTIL LATER
TONIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS FOR FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS.

LITTLE/NO CHANGE WITH TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. EXPECT A SLOW FALL
LATER TONIGHT AS WINDS BACK TO WNW...HELPING TO PULL COOLER/DRIER
AIR IN TOWARD SUNRISE FROM THE WEST.

LAKE WINDS...STILL EXPECT WINDS TO INCREASE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE NEAR
ATLANTIC WATERS AND COLD ADVECTION. GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF
40-50 KT AT 1000 MB SHOULD SUPPORT NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. THUS...LAKE WIND
ADVISORY STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A TOUGH NIGHT FOR AVIATION EXPECTED AS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IMPACTS
BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE NIGHT TONIGHT. EXPECT GENERALLY
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS WITH PERIODIC IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS WITH
HEAVIER RAIN MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE
RAPIDLY LATER IN THE MORNING WEDNESDAY AS THE SURFACE LOW SYSTEM
PULLS AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THIS LOW
LATER TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT
TIMES. DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A
FEW HOURS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS
CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RAIN...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES STILL EXPECTED TONIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A POSITION NORTH OF
OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY
CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE LOW AND ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-FALL PRESSURE
COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON THE ORDER OF
AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS
OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC WATERS OUT 20 NM.
FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COASTAL WATERS HAVE
MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH
FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO
GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO OCCUR. HAVE ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE OFFSHORE GA /AMD374/ WATERS LATER TONIGHT AS
THE LOW STRENGTHENS AND THAT REGION GETS INTO WARMER/LESS STABLE
AIR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RFM
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 252105
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP AND RICH SW FEED FROM OUT OF THE NOT ONLY THE GULF...BUT
ALSO WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
BROAD...DEEP AND AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
CONTINUED FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE GULF STREAM ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB/3 HOURS ACROSS THAT REGION...INDICATIVE
OF THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN GULF BY 06Z...TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NE GULF BY
LATE. ROBUST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE OF A 175-200 KT UPPER JET THAT
PIVOTS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND STEADY HEIGHTS FALLS AND
STRONG BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BLOSSOM OFF OUR COASTS AS IT
HITS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS...AND LIFTS NE AND DEEPENS AS
IT REACHES JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER BY 6 AM
WEDNESDAY. TRAILING FROM THE LOW THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE.

WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
THIS AND FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY VARIOUS MODELS AT 700 MB. WITH
ASSOCIATED PWATS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER THIS WILL SUPPORT MORE RAINS THAT WILL BE MODERATE
OR HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN THOUGH WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER 3/4 TO 1 1/4
INCH RAINS TO OCCUR...EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN BELOW THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 9-11 PM THIS
EVENING...IN SYNC WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BETTER RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD. FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY. WE ARE SHOWING
POPS RAMPING UP TO 100 PERCENT AREA WIDE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN RAIN
CHANCES TAPER FROM SW TO NE LATE AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL
AWAY. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON POPS IN SOME SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER 3 OR
4 AM. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND MAYBE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF AMZ350 WHERE THE COASTAL WARM FRONT TIPS
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATE IT ALLOWS FOR COOL
ADVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK /AROUND 13-15Z WEDNESDAY/...RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL THE
COOL ADVECTION SETS IN.

LAKE WINDS...AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY WE/LL SEE THE
ONSET OF LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION SET
IN ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF 40-50 KT
AT 1000 MB THIS WILL SUPPORT WIND NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...VALID DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LULL IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES
NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRONG
LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT OCCURS OVER OR NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A
POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-
FALL PRESSURE COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS OUT 20 NM. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON
COASTAL WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL
GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OCCUR AND THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME T-STORMS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM...AFFECTING PARTS OF AMZ374 AND MAYBE SNEAKING INTO AMZ350.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 252105
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRENGTHENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ALONG A
STALLED FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT...THEN LIFT AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP AND RICH SW FEED FROM OUT OF THE NOT ONLY THE GULF...BUT
ALSO WITH ITS ORIGINS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL CONTINUE TO
STREAM INTO THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A
BROAD...DEEP AND AMPLIFIED MID LATITUDE TROUGH ALOFT THAT
COVERS MUCH OF THE CONUS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
CONTINUED FLARE-UP OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT ALIGNED FROM NEAR THE GULF STREAM ACROSS NORTH AND
NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF. THERE IS ALSO GOOD
PRESSURE FALLS OF 2-3 MB/3 HOURS ACROSS THAT REGION...INDICATIVE
OF THE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT TAKES ON A SLIGHTLY
NEGATIVE TILT AS IT SWEEPS RAPIDLY THROUGH THE TN VALLEY AND
NORTHERN GULF BY 06Z...TO NEAR THE APPALACHIANS TO THE NE GULF BY
LATE. ROBUST UPPER DYNAMICS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...WITH
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE OF A 175-200 KT UPPER JET THAT
PIVOTS THROUGH THE OH/TN VALLEYS AND STEADY HEIGHTS FALLS AND
STRONG BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM
WILL ALLOW FOR THE SURFACE LOW TO BLOSSOM OFF OUR COASTS AS IT
HITS THE WARMER GULF STREAM WATERS...AND LIFTS NE AND DEEPENS AS
IT REACHES JUST OFF THE COAST NEAR THE SC/NC BORDER BY 6 AM
WEDNESDAY. TRAILING FROM THE LOW THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL
TRANSITION INTO A COLD FRONT THAT PULLS AWAY FROM THE COAST LATE.

WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION IN RESPONSE TO
THIS AND FRONTOGENESIS INDICATED BY VARIOUS MODELS AT 700 MB. WITH
ASSOCIATED PWATS CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER THIS WILL SUPPORT MORE RAINS THAT WILL BE MODERATE
OR HEAVY AT TIMES. EVEN THOUGH WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER 3/4 TO 1 1/4
INCH RAINS TO OCCUR...EVEN LOCALLY HIGHER...SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
PROBLEMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED AS WE REMAIN BELOW THE FLASH FLOOD
GUIDANCE. EVEN SO...HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR AROUND 9-11 PM THIS
EVENING...IN SYNC WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER RAINS. THIS COULD
RESULT IN A BETTER RISK FOR AT LEAST LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD. FLOOD
ADVISORIES AND/OR WARNINGS MIGHT BECOME NECESSARY. WE ARE SHOWING
POPS RAMPING UP TO 100 PERCENT AREA WIDE EARLY TONIGHT...THEN RAIN
CHANCES TAPER FROM SW TO NE LATE AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO PULL
AWAY. WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE OVERDONE ON POPS IN SOME SECTIONS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT THE TREND WILL BE FOR DECREASING COVERAGE AFTER 3 OR
4 AM. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF A LITTLE ELEVATED INSTABILITY WHICH
COULD RESULT IN A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER...BUT THE BETTER CHANCE
OF STORMS WILL REMAIN OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND MAYBE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF AMZ350 WHERE THE COASTAL WARM FRONT TIPS
TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

AS THE SURFACE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE LATE IT ALLOWS FOR COOL
ADVECTION TO OCCUR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR MIN TEMPS TO ACTUALLY
OCCUR AFTER DAYBREAK /AROUND 13-15Z WEDNESDAY/...RANGING FROM THE
MID AND UPPER 40S WEST OF I-95 TO THE LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
COAST. BUT MUCH OF THE NIGHT IS STILL RELATIVELY MILD UNTIL THE
COOL ADVECTION SETS IN.

LAKE WINDS...AT SOME POINT LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW IN THE ATLANTIC DEEPENS AND PULLS AWAY WE/LL SEE THE
ONSET OF LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND COLD ADVECTION SET
IN ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS OF 40-50 KT
AT 1000 MB THIS WILL SUPPORT WIND NW WIND GUSTS OF 25 KT OR MORE
IN THE WINDOW FROM AROUND 4-10 AM WEDNESDAY. AS A RESULT WE HAVE
ISSUED A LAKE WIND ADVISORY...VALID DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS
IT PIVOTS INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AS THIS OCCURS...AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING WILL RAPIDLY INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST FARTHER FROM
THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY. RAINFALL WRAPPING AROUND THE LOW WILL
AFFECT THE AREA IN THE MORNING...WITH DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IN PLACE. RAINFALL PROBABILITIES WILL
RANGE FROM A CHANCE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...TO LIKELY
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TRI-COUNTY AREA. THE RAINFALL WILL COME TO
AN END BY MIDDAY AS STRONG SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD IN FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE...WITH CLEARING SKIES
EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S ACROSS THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
THROUGH...ALONG WITH A REINFORCING COLD FRONT AT THE SURFACE. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BE DRY GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE...BUT A FEW MID
LEVEL CLOUDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. WINDS COULD BECOME LIGHT IN
THE EVENING...BUT SHOULD RECOUPLE AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS IN
WAKE OF THE FRONT LATER AT NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS INT EH UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ALONG
WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS IN THE MID AND UPPER
50S AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE LULL IN RAINFALL WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN
ARRIVES LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES
NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM AND STRONG
LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS TO
IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL EVENTUALLY DEVELOP IN
RESPONSE TO DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE THAT OCCURS OVER OR NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS AROUND MIDNIGHT...BEFORE IT HEADS NE THEREAFTER TO A
POSITION NORTH OF OUR WATERS BY MORNING. IN RESPONSE...WINDS AND
SEAS WILL QUICKLY CLIMB AS STRONG COLD ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND
THE LOW AND ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT. THAT ALONG WITH A LARGE RISE-
FALL PRESSURE COUPLET WITH RESULTING ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES ON
THE ORDER OF AROUND 1 MB/HOUR LATE TONIGHT WILL SUPPORT GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS OUR GA WATERS OUT 60 NM AND ALSO OUR SOUTHERN SC
WATERS OUT 20 NM. FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON
COASTAL WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED A SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY...BUT WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR A SMALL WINDOW OF MARGINAL
GALES AFTER DAYBREAK AS THEY TOO GET SOME GOOD PRESSURE RISES TO
OCCUR. IN ADDITION...WIDESPREAD RAINS WILL OCCUR AND THERE COULD
ALSO BE SOME T-STORMS OUT NEAR THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF
STREAM...AFFECTING PARTS OF AMZ374 AND MAYBE SNEAKING INTO AMZ350.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
RAPIDLY PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE
CONDITIONS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
LOW PULLS AWAY AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES...BUT ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD
AIR ADVECTION IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING AS A
STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD
THEREFORE BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES IN THE
LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY TIME FRAME. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD
THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ352-354-
     374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE RAINS WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART HAVE DWINDLED
CONSIDERABLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
THIS IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE BY THE HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING
OCCURRING. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL A REGION OF WIDESPREAD RAINS
SKIRTING OUR FAR WEST AND NW ZONES IN RESPONSE TO AN 850 MB COLD
FRONT AND WHERE WE/RE ALSO FINDING SOME HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED TO POPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AS THE TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKE PLACE. POPS WILL BE
GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT FORM 50 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS
LOCATIONS WEST OF US-301 IN SE GA AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
COLLETON...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS HAVE TURNED NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WE HAVE AROUND 60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR
OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A DEFINITE LULL THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE
GULF STREAM AND STRONG LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL
JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 251820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
120 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

THE RAINS WE SAW THIS MORNING FOR THE MOST PART HAVE DWINDLED
CONSIDERABLY IN BOTH COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS A STATIONARY FRONT
CONTINUES TO ACQUIRE CHARACTERISTICS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM.
THIS IS EASILY IDENTIFIABLE BY THE HEAVIER CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE ATLANTIC WITH PLENTY OF LIGHTNING
OCCURRING. THERE IS HOWEVER STILL A REGION OF WIDESPREAD RAINS
SKIRTING OUR FAR WEST AND NW ZONES IN RESPONSE TO AN 850 MB COLD
FRONT AND WHERE WE/RE ALSO FINDING SOME HIGHER THETA-E AIR.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED TO POPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY FOR THE REST OF THE
AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE REGION...AS THE TRANSITION TO THE COASTAL
WATERS OF THE FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE TAKE PLACE. POPS WILL BE
GENERALLY 30-40 PERCENT...EXCEPT FORM 50 TO 90 PERCENT ACROSS
LOCATIONS WEST OF US-301 IN SE GA AND 50-70 PERCENT ACROSS INLAND
COLLETON...HAMPTON AND ALLENDALE COUNTIES.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE THIS AFTERNOON...RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS HAVE TURNED NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING BY LATE AFTERNOON. FOR
NOW WE HAVE AROUND 60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S
ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR
OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A DEFINITE LULL THAT WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING UNTIL OUR NEXT ROUND OF RAIN ARRIVES TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO LIFT GENERATED BY AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE THAT RIDES NE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT OUT NEAR THE
GULF STREAM AND STRONG LIFT PRODUCED BY AN APPROACHING POWERFUL
JET STEAM.

CURRENT 18Z SET OF TAFS HAVE MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS AT KSAV
THROUGH THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID CYCLE...WITH VFR WEATHER TO
RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD. AT KCHS...WE COULD HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF VFR WEATHER FROM MID AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...BUT A RETURN
TO MVFR OR LOWER WEATHER SETTLE IN AGAIN FOR THE BULK OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE RAINS THAT
TRANSPIRE...WHICH WILL BE MODERATE TO PERHAPS EVEN HEAVY AT
TIMES THAT REDUCE VSBYS...AND WILL OCCUR TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY TO GO ALONG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS.

WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN BEHIND THE ATLANTIC LOW VERY LATE TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY AS NW WINDS REACH AROUND 20 OR 25 KT AT TIMES.
DEPENDING UPON EXACTLY WHEN THIS HAPPENS WE MIGHT HAVE A FEW HOURS
OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR PRIOR TO THE SURFACE WINDS CLIMBING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. GIVEN THE SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ADVECTING
ACROSS THE COOLER SHELF WATERS WE HAVE MAINTAINED PATCHY FOG
ACROSS THE 0-20 NM WATERS WITH VSBYS DOWN TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

WE/RE DEFINITELY IN FOR A WET DAY...ALTHOUGH WE/RE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF THE RAINS WE/RE SEEING THIS MORNING WILL START TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...AND THE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT. OR WILL THESE TWO RAIN AREAS JUST MERGE TOGETHER. THE POP
SCHEME IS SHOWING HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...THEN
MAYBE A SMALL DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE TRANSITION ATTEMPTS
TO TAKE PLACE...THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN LATE FROM THE
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED THUNDER...THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE OUT OVER THE GULF
STREAM WHICH HEADS INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERAL SITES
SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG...WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE TODAY...MAYBE RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS BECOMING NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING. FOR NOW WE HAVE AROUND
60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY
FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY AS WE REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN A DECAYING COLD FRONT INLAND
AND A DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE COULD
BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON ...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND A FEW T-STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY THROUGH THE DAY...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES...ALONG WITH SOME FOG TO REDUCE VSBYS
TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 251529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OUR BLOCKING ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY SHIFTED FURTHER EAST AND
SE IN ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND LARGE SCALE MID LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING
THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS A DEEP
INFLUX OF TROPICAL MOISTURE WITH IT/S ORIGINS ALL THE WAY FROM THE
EASTERN PACIFIC...AS SHOWN CLEARLY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS IS
SUPPLYING THE REGION WITH AN ANOMALOUSLY HIGH FEED OF MOISTURE
WITH PWATS THAT ARE APPROACHING MAXIMUM VALUES FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT WEST OF US-301 IN SE
GA INTO THE MIDLANDS OF SC. A MORE PROMINENT BOUNDARY THAT/S
DEVELOPING IS FOUND OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM WHERE A STATIONARY
FRONT IS FORMING OVER A PRE-EXISTING BAROCLINIC ZONE. THIS FRONT
WILL BECOME THE MAIN PLAYER IN OUR WEATHER LATER TODAY AND MORE SO
TONIGHT.

A POWERFUL SHORT WAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH
THROUGH SOUTHERN TEXAS IS STARTING TO SUPPORT CYCLOGENESIS IN THE
GULF OF MEXICO AS PER SATELLITE PICTURES WHICH ARE INDICATING A
BURST IN CONVECTION AND COLDER CLOUD TOPS. THIS DEVELOPING LOW
WILL HEAD TOWARD THE FLORIDA BIG BEND BY LATE IN THE DAY AS IT
RIDES ALONG THE PRE-EXISTING STATIONARY FRONT/BAROCLINIC ZONE.

WE/RE DEFINITELY IN FOR A WET DAY...ALTHOUGH WE/RE A LITTLE UNCERTAIN
IF THE RAINS WE/RE SEEING THIS MORNING WILL START TO DIMINISH IN
INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE...AND THE ACTIVITY WILL TRANSITION
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE STATIONARY
FRONT. OR WILL THESE TWO RAIN AREAS JUST MERGE TOGETHER. THE POP
SCHEME IS SHOWING HIGHEST CATEGORICAL POPS THIS MORNING...THEN
MAYBE A SMALL DECLINE THIS AFTERNOON WHILE THE TRANSITION ATTEMPTS
TO TAKE PLACE...THEN POPS RAMPING BACK UP AGAIN LATE FROM THE
OCEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
DAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS STILL A CONCERN WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVY RAINS AND THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS FROM THE PAST SEVERAL
DAYS OF RAIN.

WHILE THERE COULD BE A LITTLE ELEVATED THUNDER...THE BETTER
CHANCES OF SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY WILL BE OUT OVER THE GULF
STREAM WHICH HEADS INTO OUR COASTAL WATERS LATE. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN THE OCCASIONAL HEAVY RAINS AND SEVERAL SITES
SHOWING LIGHT TO MODERATE FOG...WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
FORECAST.

TEMPS ARE NOT GOING MUCH OF ANYWHERE TODAY...MAYBE RISING A
COUPLE MORE DEGREES AT BEST. IN FACT WITH THE ONSET OF SOME COOLER
AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STATIONARY FRONT
FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND WINDS BECOMING NW AND NORTH...WE
COULD ACTUALLY START TO SEE TEMPS FALLING. FOR NOW WE HAVE AROUND
60 FAR INTERIOR GA TO THE LOWER AND MID 60S ELSEWHERE...A FAR CRY
FROM YESTERDAYS MAX TEMPS THAT WERE NEAR OR OVER 80 IN MANY SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AFFECT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THE DAY AS WE REMAIN STUCK BETWEEN A DECAYING COLD FRONT INLAND
AND A DEVELOPING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE ATLANTIC. THERE COULD
BE SOMEWHAT OF A LULL THIS AFTERNOON ...BEFORE ADDITIONAL MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE
MOVES OFFSHORE ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY PREVAIL FOR
A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN POCKETS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE ATLANTIC RIDGE HAS FINALLY PULLED EAST OF THE WATERS
AS DEEP MID LATITUDE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING THE FORMATION OF A
NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT NOT FAR TO THE EAST. THIS CAN BE SEEN ON
BOTH SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WHERE WINDS OVER THE ATLANTIC ARE
MOSTLY NORTHERLY...AND ALSO ON RADAR WHERE WE FIND DEEP CONVECTION
FORMING OUT OVER THE GULF STREAM. FOR THE BULK OF THE DAY THE
GRADIENT WILL BE LAX ENOUGH TO SUPPORT WINDS NO HIGHER THAN 10
KT...EXCEPT SOME 15 KT ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL
BEHELD TO 5 FT OR LESS. A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND A FEW T-STORMS
WILL IMPACT THE MARINE COMMUNITY THROUGH THE DAY...SOME WITH HEAVY
RAINS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES...ALONG WITH SOME FOG TO REDUCE VSBYS
TO 1 TO 3 NM.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAS SETUP FROM HINESVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH JAMESTOWN. GAGE
REPORTS IN THIS CORRIDOR INDICATE AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE UPDATED OUR 6AM-NOON QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BY ABOUT 1 INCH IN THIS AREA TO REFLECT
CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS. AN UPDATED STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC WILL BE
POSTED TO THE WEATHER BRIEFING WEB PAGE SHORTLY.

REST OF TODAY...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO
CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING... CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL
UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE
TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL
TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE
THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT
MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY... MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...A LARGE AREA OF VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH EMBEDDED
TSTMS HAS SETUP FROM HINESVILLE NORTHEAST THROUGH JAMESTOWN. GAGE
REPORTS IN THIS CORRIDOR INDICATE AS MUCH AS 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN IN SOME AREAS OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS. GIVEN CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS...WE HAVE UPDATED OUR 6AM-NOON QUANTITATIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECAST BY ABOUT 1 INCH IN THIS AREA TO REFLECT
CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS. AN UPDATED STORM TOTAL GRAPHIC WILL BE
POSTED TO THE WEATHER BRIEFING WEB PAGE SHORTLY.

REST OF TODAY...A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING. THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM
TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO
2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS
WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO
CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST
BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW
TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING... CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL
UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE
UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE
TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO INITIATE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO
APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND
ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL
TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE
THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT
MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY... MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 251104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
604 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY CHANGE FOR THE LATE MORNING UPDATE WAS TO INCREASE POPS AND
QPF ALONG THE COAST TO NEAR 100 PERCENT PER GOING KCLX/KVAX RADAR
TRENDS. STILL EXPECT THE BULK OF THE RAIN TO REFOCUS BACK INLAND
LATER TODAY. GRIDDED POPS WILL REFLECT THE. THE REST OF THE
FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH EMBEDDED HEAVIER ELEMENTS AND THUNDER WILL AFFECT THE
TERMINAL THROUGH MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FOCUS SHIFTS INLAND. COLD
FRONT FORECAST TO REACH THE TERMINALS 14-16Z THEN BECOME
STATIONARY OFFSHORE. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A BREAK IN THE MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL FROM LATE MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
MORE SIGNIFICANT RAINS BEGIN TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC.
MODERATE RAIN...HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE. PREVAILING IFR/MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE THROUGH 26/12Z...BUT VFR WILL LIKELY
PREVAIL FOR A GOOD PORTION OF THE DAY OUTSIDE OF RAIN POCKETS.
ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ABOVE ALTERNATE AND AIRPORT
MINIMUMS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
PRECIPITATION RECORDS FOR 25 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...1.87 INCHES SET IN 1972.
KCXM...3.52 INCHES SET IN 1899.
KSAV...2.01 INCHES SET IN 1899.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250905
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
405 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

...MORE HEAVY RAIN FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WITH HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS DEVELOPING TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TODAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. DRY
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY
AND REMAIN THE MOST PROMINENT FEATURE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A LARGE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO TEXAS IS
DRAWING A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHEAST ACROSS
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. THIS MORNING.
THE MOISTURE PLUME HAS ORIGINS FROM TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WITH
PWATS FORECAST TO HOLD IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE TODAY. A COLD
FRONT MOVING EVER SO SLOWLY ACROSS WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA IS FORECAST TO CREEP FROM WEST-EAST ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...GRADUALLY
BECOMING STATIONARY JUST OFF THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...
CLOSEST TO THE FRONT AND POWERFUL UPPER JET ALOFT...BUT WILL
EXPAND EAST BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO SHARPEN
OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF. AS THE TROUGH SHARPENS...RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF WITH THE LOW FORECAST TO APPROACH NORTHERN FLORIDA BY
SUNSET. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS AND ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE
FOR LATE NOVEMBER WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER ROUND OF WET WEATHER FOR
THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER
WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCHES TODAY. CATEGORICAL TO HIGH-END LIKELY POPS
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED TODAY WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLASH
FLOODING IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE THE RECENT WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCH
RAINFALL ENDING YESTERDAY...BUT MINOR FLOODING IS A POSSIBILITY...
MAINLY IN LOW-LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY ONCE AGAIN AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON THE
EVENTUAL MOVEMENT/PLACEMENT OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
LATEST HIGH RES DATA SUPPORT HIGHS OCCURRING JUST AFTER SUNRISE
ACROSS THE FAR WEST WITH TEMPERATURES SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 50S
THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE ONSET OF POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION.
TEMPERATURES THE COAST ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES WARMER AS THIS AREA WILL
REMAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR THE LONGEST. HIGHS WILL RANGE AROUND 60
ACROSS THE FAR WEST TO THE NEAR 70 JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE UP THE FRONT AND
OFFSHORE OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE POWERFUL UPPER TROUGH BEGINS
TO PIVOT INTO A NEGATIVELY TILTED ORIENTATION ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COUPLED WITH STRONG
BAROCLINICITY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL OF THE GULF STREAM WILL
PROMOTE RAPID DEEPENING AS THE LOW APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA
OUTER BANKS EARLY WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A BOUT OF WIDESPREAD MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS TO MOVE BECOME ENHANCED OVER THE AREA AS THE MOST
INTENSE DYNAMICS PUSH THROUGH THIS EVENING. HIGH END CATEGORICAL
POPS WILL BE DEPICTED FOR ALL AREAS WITH A MENTION OF RAIN
BECOMING HEAVY AT TIMES. FLOODING PROBLEMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH STORM TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE STORM EXITS THE AREA. THE RAIN WILL BEGIN
TO TAPER DOWN FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST LATE AS THE LOW PROPAGATES
AWAY FROM THE AREA AND STRONG COLD AIR/DRY ADVECTION INITIATES IN
ITS WAKE. HOW QUICKLY THE RAIN ENDS IS STILL IN QUESTION...SO
HIGH GRIDDED POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED...DROPPING TO 70 PERCENT
SOUTHWEST TO 90 PERCENT NORTHEAST BY 12Z. FURTHER REFINEMENT IN
THE ENDING OF THE RAIN WILL BE NEEDED AS ADDITIONAL MODEL DATA ARE
RECEIVED. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO THE LOWER 50S ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE WILL BE
RAPIDLY PULLING NORTH DURING THE MORNING HOURS...JUST AHEAD OF
ROBUST SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWEEPING THROUGH THE EAST COAST STATES
LATER IN THE DAY. EXPECT A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AT DAYBREAK...WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA CLOSER TO THE DEPARTING LOW
SYSTEM...AND SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. RAIN WILL BE STEADILY DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS...WITH DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE WEST/SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW. RAIN
SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT DRY
CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL INTO THE EVENING AND NIGHTTIME PERIOD.
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COLDER THAN SEEN
IN THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AS BREEZY NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD
ADVECTION SUPPRESS HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER
30S AWAY FROM THE WARMER COASTLINE.

THURSDAY...WEAKENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL PASS JUST TO THE NORTH DURING THE MORNING
HOURS...WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION REMAINS OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA. A STRONGER CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST...AND WITH THE AXIS OF THE
BROAD UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EAST COAST...A SLIGHT
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND WILL MITIGATE ANOTHER ROUND OF
COLD ADVECTION. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE DRY WEATHER AND CLEAR
SKIES ON THURSDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER
50S TO AROUND 60 DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW TO
MID 30S WITHIN WEAKENING SURFACE FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL DESCEND OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. COOLER NORTH WINDS AND HEIGHT FALLS
OVER THE REGION SUGGEST HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE MID
TO UPPER 50S DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SLIP TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHILE FLAT
RIDGING DEVELOPS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. EXPECT A STEADILY MODERATING
AIR MASS AND WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RESULT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S TO MID
60S...WITH TEMPERATURES PEAKING IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70
DEGREES BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 30S
FRIDAY NIGHT...TO THE UPPER 40S BY MONDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY REDUCTIONS
TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THEREAFTER.
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY....LIGHT WINDS WILL TURN OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND BECOMES STATIONARY ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. REPORTS FROM BUOY 41004 AND WW4 OUTPUT SUGGEST
SEAS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 6 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATER SO
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE DISCONTINUED THERE. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN NORTHEAST AND INCREASE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES JUST OFFSHORE. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY FROM THE REGION AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ENSUES. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS SHOW A NASTY LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE DEVELOPING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHICH IS FORECAST TO SHOOT OVER THE
GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS LATE
COINCIDENT WITH AN AREA OF INTENSE COLD AIR ADVECTION AND A LARGE
ISALLOBARIC RISE/FALL COUPLET. BOTH MODEL BOUNDARY LAYER WIND
WINDS SUPPORT FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT GALES OVER THE COOLER SHELF
WATERS WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY APPROACHING 45 KT OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE LEG CLOSER TO THE WARMER WATERS
OF THE GULF STREAM. THE DURATION OF ANY POTENTIAL GALES LOOKS TO
BE ABOUT 5-7 HOURS. PER COLLABORATION WITH WFO JAX AND THE OCEAN
PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WATCH WILL BE ISSUED FOR BOTH GEORGIA
MARINE ZONES AND THE BEAUFORT COUNTY COASTAL WATERS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND SIGNATURE LOOKS CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS. ATTM IT APPEARS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN JUST SHY OF
ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM RAPIDLY
PULLING TO THE NORTHEAST WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...DUE TO THE ASSOCIATED TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND COLD ADVECTION MIXING OVER THE WATERS. GALE
CONDITIONS COULD BE ONGOING IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS IN THE NEARSHORE
MARINE ZONES. THERE COULD BE A BRIEF BREAK IN ADVISORY CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BEFORE STRONG HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST REINFORCES THE GRADIENT AND COLD
ADVECTION. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES COULD THEN BE NEEDED AGAIN FOR
PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES THURSDAY. CONDITIONS WILL THEN
IMPROVE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS
TOWARD THE WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR
     AMZ352-354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 250526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. MOIST/TROPICAL FLOW
REMAINS IN TACT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. STILL WATCHING FOR LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATE...BIT ITS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 250526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1226 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCTS TO INCREASE POPS TO 70 TO 100 PERCENT
OVER COASTAL AREAS AND 50-60 PERCENT INLAND. MOIST/TROPICAL FLOW
REMAINS IN TACT WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING UPPER DIFLUENCE AND
WEAK PERTURBATIONS PASSING THROUGH ALOFT ARE SUPPORTING A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS WILL PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE. STILL WATCHING FOR LOW
STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG LATE...BIT ITS UNCLEAR HOW
WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RAIN WITH OCCASIONAL TSTMS WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN VFR WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF MVFR IN THE HEAVIER ELEMENTS. SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY
SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER 08-09Z WITH A POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG TO
DEVELOP. IT IS UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD EITHER ELEMENT WILL BECOME
BUT SUSPECT KSAV WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR CIGS DROPPING TO
BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS. THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH SHOWER ACTIVITY
AT KCHS TO PREVENT WIDESPREAD IMPACTS FROM FOG/STRATUS. VFR WILL
RETURN LATER THIS MORNING WITH CONDITIONS DETERIORATING LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR
CEILINGS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY
NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 250327
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT FOR LATER
TONIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTED IN MAINLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY. RAISED POPS IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM
SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. SOME HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM IN THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT
KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR OR NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER
IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...MTE








000
FXUS62 KCHS 250327
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE ARE TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONT FOR LATER
TONIGHT...MORE IN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF. THIS RESULTED IN MAINLY
STEADY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...HIGHER
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY A FEW DEGREES...ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST AND A
SLIGHT UPWARD ADJUSTMENT OF HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST FOR
TUESDAY. RAISED POPS IN MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY IN
COASTAL AREAS OF GEORGIA AS LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA FROM
SOUTH GEORGIA AND NORTH FLORIDA. SOME HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD EXCEED AN INCH PER HOUR THROUGH 1 OR 2 AM IN THIS AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT
KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH
IFR OR NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER
IMPACTS ON THE TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
RAISED RAIN CHANCES SOONER ACROSS THE WATERS WITH THIS UPDATE. ALL
INDICATIONS ARE THAT FOG IS NOT A PROBLEM AT THE PRESENT
TIME...BUT MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS MID TO UPPER 60 DEWPOINT AIR MOVES ACROSS
MUCH COOLER SHELF WATERS. EVERYTHING APPEARS ON TRACK TO DROP SCA
FOR AMZ350 AT 2 AM AND AMZ374 AT 5 AM AS THE GRADUAL DOWNWARD
TREND OF SEAS CONTINUES. ADJUSTED WIND SPEEDS DOWN QUITE A
BIT BASED ON CURRENT OBSERVATION...AND THEN GRADUALLY INCREASE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS LATER TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...MTE







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250035
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN MOST AREAS. ATTM THINK THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR
NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE
TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 250035
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
MAIN CHANGES ON THIS UPDATE WAS TO ADJUST POPS THIS EVENING
ACCORDING TO RADAR TRENDS AND TO LOWER TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS
IN MOST AREAS. ATTM THINK THAT TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS SHOULD
REMAIN FAIRLY STEADY UNTIL THE FRONT DRIFTS THROUGH THE AREA LATER
TONIGHT. OTHERWISE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE CONUS
WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SW
ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP AND
EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SE THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS... SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT THE TERMINALS
THIS EVENING...WITH A THREAT FOR ANOTHER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AT KSAV
THROUGH ABOUT 03Z. GENERALLY VFR TO UPPER END MVFR CONDITIONS THIS
EVENING WILL GRADUALLY DETERIATING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH IFR OR
NEAR IFR CIGS EXPECTED BY 12Z. HARD TO PIN DOWN TIMING OF SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY...BUT THE BIGGER IMPACTS ON THE
TERMINALS WILL BE THE MVFR OR IFR CIGS. COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAIN
THAT COULD AID IN REDUCED VSBYS ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...











000
FXUS62 KCHS 242118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
418 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL THE RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED STRONG OR SEVERE STORM...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-16 IN SE GA
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...










000
FXUS62 KCHS 242100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 242100
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE GEORGIA COAST TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND LIFT NORTHEAST
TUESDAY NIGHT. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A HUGE AND DEEPENING LARGE SCALE TROUGH COVERING MUCH OF THE
CONUS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH A BLOCKING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
SW ATLANTIC. WE/RE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE 2 FEATURES WITH A DEEP
AND EXTREMELY MOIST SW FLOW TO PREVAIL. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW
CONSIDERABLE SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM OUT OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO WITH PWATS NEAR OR ABOVE 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL. AT THE SURFACE IS A SLUGGISH MIGRATING COLD FRONT
THAT IS BEING HELD UP BY THE ALIGNMENT WITH THE FLOW ALOFT AND
ALSO RUNNING INTO A STAGNANT ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE
THAT REFUSES TO BUDGE.

ALTHOUGH SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE WITH 45-55 KT 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR...OUR THERMODYNAMICS ARE DIMINISHING DUE TO THE
EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND EARLIER RAINS WHICH HAVE DROPPED TEMPS
CONSIDERABLY. IN RESPONSE TO THIS WE HAVE SEEN AN EXPANSION AND
STRENGTHENING OF CINH WHICH ACCORDING TO LATEST MESO-ANALYSIS
REVEALS THAT IT IS COVERING MUCH OF THE CWFA. IN ADDITION LAPSE
RATES ARE PUNY AND THE LFC HAS RISEN GREATLY SINCE PEAK HEATING.
THUS OUR SEVERE RISK IS FADING AND WE WILL REMOVE MENTION FROM THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

ALTHOUGH THE LOW LEVEL JET STARTS TO PULL AWAY...WE/LL BE SITUATED
NEAR THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A POWERFUL UPPER JET
WITH WINDS IN EXCESS OF 160 OR 170 KT THAT BECOMES ORIENTED NE-SW
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY LATE. THIS ALONG
WITH INCREASING ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AND THE COLD FRONT NOW NOT
SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.

A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW T-STORMS THIS EVENING WILL OCCUR
MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95...ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE T-STORMS
WILL BE ELEVATED GIVEN THE EXPANSION OF THE CINH AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES. THEN FOR MIDNIGHT AND BEYOND IT LOOKS LIKE
ADDITION RENEWED SHOWERS WILL FORM AS THE COLD FRONT DRAW CLOSER
AND THE ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASE. WHILE WE MIGHT BE A LITTLE
CONSERVATIVE ON POPS...UNTIL WE/RE SURE ON TRENDS WE HAVE LIMITED
POPS TO 50-60 PERCENT.

WE TIED A RECORD MAX AT KSAV EARLIER TODAY AT 83 DEGREES...BUT
LOOKS LIKE WE FELL SHORT AT KCHS AND KCXM. TEMPS WILL REMAIN WARM
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND GIVEN THAT THE FORECAST NOW SHOWS
A DELAY IN THE FRONT MAKING IT IN...WE HAVE RAISED TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ACTUAL LOWS WILL MOST LIKELY
OCCUR AFTER 12Z...AND WILL AVERAGE SOME 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMS
FOR LATE NOVEMBER.

ONE FINAL CONCERN WILL BE THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG...RESULTING FROM
THE LOWERING OF THE WIDESPREAD STRATUS DECKS OVER THE SATURATED
GROUNDS. SEA FOG IS STILL LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST IN PARTS OF
THE AREA AND WILL ALSO BECOME INVOLVED. BUT SINCE THE FLOW VEERS
TO SW AND WEST...MOST OF THE SEA FOG SHOULD STAY OFFSHORE OR
IMPACT ONLY THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A POWERFUL LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED
STATES ON TUESDAY WILL YIELD IMPRESSIVE DYNAMICS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA AND ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL. AT THE TOP OF THE TROPOSPHERE A
150-200 KT JET STREAM WILL STRETCH FROM LOUISIANA TO NEW ENGLAND
WITH A BROAD SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE OVERSPREADING THE
SOUTHEAST STATES TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. AT MID LEVELS A POTENT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION TUESDAY EVENING AND INTO THE CAROLINAS ON WEDNESDAY. AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE
INTO THE AREA WITH PWATS 1.5-1.8". THE COLD FRONT WILL BE STALLED
JUST OFF THE COAST AT DAYBREAK TUESDAY. AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES...A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. SYNOPTIC SCALE
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THIS LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AND
INTENSIFY JUST OFF THE SC/GA COAST TUESDAY EVENING BEFORE LIFTING
RAPIDLY NORTHEAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.

LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON TUESDAY AS THE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT RAMP UP TO THE LEE OF THE
STALLED FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN STEADY OR SLOWLY FALL
THROUGH THE DAY AS SOME COOLER AIR WRAPS IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND
RAIN FALLS INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT LOOK LIKE THE MOST INTERESTING PERIODS DUE TO THE
SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. SEVERAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A
40-50 KT SSW LOW-LEVEL JET ENHANCING MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ACROSS THE
TRI-COUNTY AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...COINCIDENT WITH THE CLOSEST APPROACH
BY THE LOW. WITH ANOMALOUS PWATS FOR LATE NOVEMBER IN PLACE...HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN OUR FAR EASTERN ZONES TUESDAY NIGHT...SO WE
ADDED HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY
MORNING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE PUSHES TO THE EAST AND SUBSIDENT WESTERLY
FLOW SETS UP. PARTIAL CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA...THOUGH WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND PERHAPS
SOME LIGHT RAIN. COLD ADVECTION WILL KEEP TEMPS IN THE 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS COLD AS THE CANADIAN HIGH BECOMES FIRMLY
ENTRENCHED. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 30S. THURSDAY WILL FEATURE A
MODEST WARM-UP DUE TO INCREASING DOWNSLOPE FLOW WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND WHICH IS
FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS EVENING...WE FEEL
MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE LATE TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS EARLY
TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL BE SHORT-
LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD- DOWN OCCURS WE COULD
BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MODERATE TO HIGH CHANCES FOR IFR CEILINGS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH OCCASIONAL VSBY
REDUCTIONS TO IFR/MVFR DUE TO RAIN TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. VFR
AND BREEZY NW WINDS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO OUR SE WILL ATTEMPT TO HOLD ON THROUGH THE
NIGHT...DESPITE THE GRADIENT RELAXING AS A COLD FRONT LIMPS TOWARD
THE SE COAST LATE. SOUTH AND SW WINDS AT 12-18 KT WILL BE AT THEIR
HIGHEST THIS EVENING...THEN VEER SOME 20-50 DEGREES OVERNIGHT AS
SPEEDS DROP AROUND 3-6 KT. SEAS WILL ALSO PEAK EARLY ON AT 4-7 FT
AND HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ350-374 WHERE WE HAVE THE REMAINING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES...THEN SEAS FALL ABOUT A FOOT OR SO OVERNIGHT. OF
ADDITIONAL CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AND THE LOWERING OF STRATUS
CLOUD DECKS. RECENT REPORTS AROUND THE REGION FROM VARIOUS SOURCES
INDICATE THAT THE FOG IS LOCALIZED IN NATURE. BUT WE CONTINUE TO
HAVE A LARGE SPREAD OF TEMPS BETWEEN THE COOLER WATERS AND WARMER
AIR...PLUS FAVORABLE TRAJECTORIES ALIGNED NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
SST ISOTHERMS. WE CONTINUE TO SHOW PATCHY FOG WITH VSBYS AT 1-3 NM
IN THE FORECAST AND THERE IS ALSO A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IN
EFFECT TO ADDRESS THIS CONCERN.

THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WITH A
STRONG UPPER TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST...A SURFACE LOW IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN ALONG THE FRONT JUST OFF THE GA COAST. WINDS
WILL BECOME NNE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
CONSIDERABLY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA...INITIALLY IN 25 KT
WIND GUSTS. WINDS INCREASE AND BEGIN TO BACK TO THE NNW OVERNIGHT AS
THE SURFACE LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST AND COLD AIR BEGINS TO DROP IN FROM
THE WEST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF GALE CONDITIONS OVER THE
WARMER OFFSHORE GA WATERS. AT THIS POINT WE ARE SHOWING SOME 35 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER OUTER WATERS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A GALE WATCH DUE TO THE STRONGEST WINDS
OCCURRING IN THE 4TH PERIOD AND THE DURATION LIKELY BEING LIMITED.

WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET
COULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
BY LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967. /TIED TODAY/

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS PEAKED SINCE WHAT LITTLE
INSOLATION WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE HAS FADED AND CONVECTION
HAS MESSED UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. WHAT SEA FOG HAS REMAINED IS NOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT COULD TIP BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN HEADING TOWARD THE
EAST AND IS LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NOT FAR
OUTSIDE OUR ZONES TO THE WEST/NW NEAR A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN SYNC
WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANED ELSEWHERE. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO- ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND DCAPES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND
LCL HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
APPROACHING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE
FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES ALOFT...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 OR 25
KT AT TIMES. WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND
WHICH IS FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OCCURS WE
COULD BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT
BOAT IN CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
OVER THE AMZ352 WATERS AND EXPANDING NOT FAR OFFSHORE. COVERAGE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE
DOWN UNDER 2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS
ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE HAS PEAKED SINCE WHAT LITTLE
INSOLATION WE HAVE BEEN ABLE TO ACHIEVE HAS FADED AND CONVECTION
HAS MESSED UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. WHAT SEA FOG HAS REMAINED IS NOW
OVER THE ATLANTIC BUT COULD TIP BACK ONSHORE THIS EVENING OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK IN HEADING TOWARD THE
EAST AND IS LOCATED NOT FAR FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR AS OF EARLY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER BAND IS TAKING SHAPE NOT FAR
OUTSIDE OUR ZONES TO THE WEST/NW NEAR A NOTICEABLE DIFFERENTIAL
HEATING BOUNDARY AND DEW POINT FRONT. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN SYNC
WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE ALONG WITH SOME UPPER
DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET FROM THE OHIO
VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING MUCH OF THE
NORTHERN AND COASTAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANED ELSEWHERE. MODIFIED
SOUNDINGS AND SPC MESO- ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST
THERMODYNAMICS BY LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND
1500 J/KG AND DCAPES CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF
0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND
LCL HEIGHTS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR
SCATTERED T-STORMS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
APPROACHING STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE
FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY
SHORT WAVES ALOFT...AND CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE
ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH. FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED
MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...A WEAKENING AND BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION WILL BRUSH THE
TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON...WITH NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDITIONS.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION SW WINDS WILL BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20 OR 25
KT AT TIMES. WHILE THERE ARE STILL INDICATIONS THAT ANOTHER BAND
WHICH IS FORMING FURTHER TO THE WEST COULD ARRIVE THIS
EVENING...WE FEEL MORE CONFIDENT THAT CONVECTIVE RAINS WILL ARRIVE
LATE TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO
THE AREA AND STALLS NOT FAR OFFSHORE. ANY IMPROVEMENT IN
CONDITIONS EARLY TONIGHT BACK TO VFR...WHICH IS NOT A GIVEN...WILL
BE SHORT-LIVED...AS FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL AGAIN PREVAIL LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. IF ANY FOG AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN OCCURS WE
COULD BE WORSE THAN NOW IN THE 18Z TAF SET.

KSAV...SCATTERED SHRA WILL STILL IMPACT THE AIRFIELD THIS
AFTERNOON WITH NO WORSE THAN PERIODIC MVFR WEATHER TO OCCUR.
UNLESS ANOTHER BAND ORGANIZES AND MOVES IN THIS EVENING A BETTER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTIVE RAINS AND SHRA WILL BE OVERNIGHT INTO
TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES INTO AND THE AREA AND OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL BE MVFR OR LOWER FOR THE BULK OF THE TIME FROM
AROUND 06Z THROUGH THE END OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD...AND BEYOND.
LOOKS LIKE THE FEW HOURS OF EARLIER GUSTY WINDS HAS SUBSIDED NOW
THAT TEMPS HAVE DROPPED SEVERAL DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT
BOAT IN CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS
INDICATING THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE
THIS MORNING. AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
OVER THE AMZ352 WATERS AND EXPANDING NOT FAR OFFSHORE. COVERAGE IS
NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE
DOWN UNDER 2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330-
     352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241609
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1109 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. AS OF LATE MORNING WE/RE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
OF I-16 IN SE GA...WITH EVEN NEAR 80 JUST THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. WE/LL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWING 80 OR 81 IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF I-16...MID AND
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING BY THE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE
FETCH AND EVEN SOME LINGERING SEA FOG.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...COVERING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF SE GA TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 301...AND SKIRTING THE NW
TIER OF OUR SC ZONES. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO DEW POINT
BOUNDARY IN SYNC WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE...WITH
SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMEST AIR. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS BY
LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DCAPES
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND LCL HEIGHTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR SCATTERED T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE APPROACHING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVES ALOFT... AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH.
FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LOW STRATUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. IF THE INVERSION
LOWERS ENOUGH TONIGHT WE COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX.

A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SLUGGISH MOVING COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST/NW. WE/RE NOT YET CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST/SE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANYTHING MORE
THAN VCSH FOR NOW.

FINALLY...DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD DECKS THERE IS STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT BOAT IN
CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND HUGGING THE FIRST FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ENTRANCE. COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE DOWN UNDER
2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241609
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1109 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
IN THE LARGE SCALE WE FIND A BROAD AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED TROUGH
COVERING A GOOD PORTION OF THE CONUS...WITH A BLOCKING RIDGE IN
THE SW ATLANTIC. WE LIE WITHIN A MOSTLY CONFLUENT ZONE BETWEEN
THESE TWO PROMINENT FEATURES...AND THE RESULTING SW TRAJECTORIES
ARE ALIGNED PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS STRUGGLING
TO APPROACH. THAT FRONT IS STILL WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND NOW
DOESN/T LOOK TO ARRIVE UNTIL DURING TONIGHT.

THERE REMAINS A DEEP AND ANOMALOUSLY WET MOISTURE AXIS FROM SW TO NE
ACROSS OUR LOCAL REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WITH A CONSTANT
FEED OF SUB-TROPICAL AND TROPICAL AIR FROM OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
IS ALLOWING FOR 70 DEGREE DEW POINTS TO ENCOMPASS JUST ABOUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA...QUITE UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER. WHAT/S ALSO
UNUSUAL IS THAT DESPITE AN ABUNDANCE OF LOW CLOUDINESS WE MIGHT
ACTUALLY APPROACH RECORD MAX TEMPS TODAY GIVEN GOOD WARM
ADVECTION. AS OF LATE MORNING WE/RE ALREADY IN THE UPPER 70S SOUTH
OF I-16 IN SE GA...WITH EVEN NEAR 80 JUST THE OTHER SIDE OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER. WE/LL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES THIS
AFTERNOON...SHOWING 80 OR 81 IN MANY SPOTS SOUTH OF I-16...MID AND
UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE THE SHORELINE
COMMUNITIES WHICH WILL BE IMPACTING BY THE MUCH COOLER ONSHORE
FETCH AND EVEN SOME LINGERING SEA FOG.

IN REGARDS TO CONVECTION...A BAND OF SHOWERS AND A FEW T-STORMS
HAS BEEN ONGOING SINCE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK...COVERING MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR OF SE GA TO THE WEST OF ROUTE 301...AND SKIRTING THE NW
TIER OF OUR SC ZONES. THIS LOOKS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO DEW POINT
BOUNDARY IN SYNC WITH A REGION OF CONFLUENCE AT THE SURFACE...WITH
SOME UPPER DIFLUENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE POWERFUL UPPER JET
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY TO LOWER MS VALLEY. WHILE CINH IS COVERING
MUCH OF THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL ZONES...IT HAS BEEN WANING FURTHER
SOUTH WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARMEST AIR. MODIFIED SOUNDINGS AND
SPC MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS THAT THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS BY
LATE NOVEMBER STANDARDS...WITH SBCAPES AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DCAPES
CLOSE TO 1000 J/KG. WE STILL HAVE 45-60 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR...0-3 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/SEC2 AND LOW LFC AND LCL HEIGHTS.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE A RISK FOR ISOLATED OR SCATTERED T-STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE APPROACHING STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE THRESHOLDS. NEGATIVE FACTORS WOULD BE POOR MID
LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE ABSENCE OF ANY SHORT WAVES ALOFT... AND
CLOSER TO THE COAST MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH A SOUTH/SW FETCH.
FOR NOW WE HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF ISOLATED SEVERE IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS SHOWING SOME ORGANIZATION OF
A LINEAR FEATURE OF CONVECTION...SOMEWHAT OF A QLCS. BUT GIVEN THE
LACK OF FORCING ALOFT THIS POSSIBILITY CURRENTLY APPEARS LOW...BUT
WILL OBVIOUSLY BE RE-EVALUATED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TERMINALS DURING
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY. THIS WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
LOW STRATUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER. IF THE INVERSION
LOWERS ENOUGH TONIGHT WE COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH
POSSIBLE FOG THROWN INTO THE MIX.

A BAND OF SHRA/TSRA WILL ATTEMPT TO APPROACH THE TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN ADVANCE OF A SLUGGISH MOVING COLD FRONT TO
THE WEST/NW. WE/RE NOT YET CLEAR ON HOW FAR EAST/SE THE CURRENT
CONVECTION WILL MAKE IT...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANYTHING MORE
THAN VCSH FOR NOW.

FINALLY...DESPITE THE LOW CLOUD DECKS THERE IS STRONG WINDS JUST
OFF THE SURFACE WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT
THROUGH SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...RECENT WEB CAM IMAGES...REPORTS FROM THE PILOT BOAT IN
CHARLESTON...VISIBLE SATELLITE AND COASTAL OBSERVATIONS INDICATING
THAT THE EARLIER SEA FOG HAS SHRUNK CONSIDERABLY SINCE EARLY THIS
MORNING. LATE MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT IT IS MAINLY CONFINED
SOUTH OF CHARLESTON COUNTY AND HUGGING THE FIRST FEW MILES OF THE
COAST TO NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER ENTRANCE. COVERAGE DOESN/T APPEAR
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY A DENSE FOG ADVISORY AT THIS TIME...BUT A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT IS IN EFFECT SINCE SOME VSBYS WILL BE DOWN UNDER
2 NM.

IN REGARDS TO WINDS AND SEAS...THERE WILL REMAIN A DECENT GRADIENT
PACKING BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SE AND A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT INLAND OVER THE SE. THIS WILL GENERATE
SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF 15-20 KT...WITH GUSTS UP NEAR 25 KT ACROSS
ALL WATERS EXCEPT AMZ354. SEAS HAVE BEEN SO CHURNED UP FROM RECENT
DAYS THAT THEY WILL STILL BE AS HIGH AS 4-7 FT OVER AMZ350-352...6-8
FT ON AMZ374...BUT LIMITED TO 5 FT ON AMZ354. AS A RESULT OF THESE
CONDITIONS WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ONGOING FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES EXCEPT THE 0-20 NM LEG OFF THE GA COAST. MARINE LAYERING
EFFECTS ATOP THE COOLER SHELF AND IMMEDIATE COASTAL WATERS WILL
KEEP WINDS DOWN SEVERAL KNOTS ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE AREAS...BUT
THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH MIXING AROUND THE EDGES OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO ALSO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THERE AS WELL.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 241159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...DENSE SEA FOG TO LINGER OFF THE COAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED WELL TO THE WEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AND WARM LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM FORECAST TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON--HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON
AIRPORTS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASE WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME UVM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN THE FAST UPPER FLOW
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...SO POPS WILL
BE INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH POPS 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE RIBBON OF 50-55 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE 850 HPA LOW-
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY LATE
MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 40-50 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PROMOTES DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG.
A FEW OF THE TSTMS THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLUAR
CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TYPE FEATURE TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON...
WHICH THE LATEST H3R HAS BEEN SHOWING A SQUALL LINE SIGNAL FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ATTM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN AT THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH THETA AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE COLD ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. WITH SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORIES IN PLACE...ANY SEA FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE DRAWN TO THE BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG HAS SO FAR BEEN HELD AT BAY WITH 300 FT WINDS HOLDING 20-25
KT. CIGS NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
WITH LEVELS RISING TO HIGH-END IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. VFR SHOULD
RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST AFTER 20Z...BUT
IT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT
FOR NOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IFR OR LOWER
IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WEBCAMS AT TYBEE ISLAND INDICATE WIDESPREAD SEA FOG HAS PUSHED
SOUTH INTO THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS. ITS UNCLEAR HOW FAR SOUTH
THE FOG EXTENDS...BUT HAVE GONE AHEAD AND EXPANDED THE MARINE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO INCLUDE THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH
11 AM.

TODAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. FLAGS WILL THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TODAY
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD ANY FOG WILL BECOME...
BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED WIDESPREAD
DENSE SEA FOG JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH VSBYS
MEASURED IN TERMS OF FEET. HILTON HEAD ALSO DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN
FOG WITH A CEILING OF 100 FT...SO SUSPECT THE FOG EXTENDS DOWN TO
NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT FOR ALL NEARSHORE ZONES THROUGH 11 AM.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...DENSE SEA FOG TO LINGER OFF THE COAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED WELL TO THE WEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AND WARM LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM FORECAST TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON--HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON
AIRPORTS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASE WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME UVM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN THE FAST UPPER FLOW
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...SO POPS WILL
BE INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH POPS 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE RIBBON OF 50-55 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE 850 HPA LOW-
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY LATE
MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 40-50 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PROMOTES DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG.
A FEW OF THE TSTMS THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLUAR
CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TYPE FEATURE TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON...
WHICH THE LATEST H3R HAS BEEN SHOWING A SQUALL LINE SIGNAL FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ATTM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN AT THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH THETA AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE COLD ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. WITH SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORIES IN PLACE...ANY SEA FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE DRAWN TO THE BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG HAS SO FAR BEEN HELD AT BAY WITH 300 FT WINDS HOLDING 20-25
KT. CIGS NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
WITH LEVELS RISING TO HIGH-END IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. VFR SHOULD
RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST AFTER 20Z...BUT
IT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT
FOR NOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IFR OR LOWER
IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. FLAGS WILL THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TODAY
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD ANY FOG WILL BECOME...
BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED WIDESPREAD
DENSE SEA FOG JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH VSBYS
MEASURED IN TERMS OF FEET. HILTON HEAD ALSO DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN
FOG WITH A CEILING OF 100 FT...SO SUSPECT THE FOG EXTENDS DOWN TO
NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GEORGIA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SOON.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...DENSE SEA FOG TO LINGER OFF THE COAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0 INCHES
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS A LARGE
UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED WELL TO THE WEST. AN ANOMALOUSLY
MOIST AND WARM LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS TODAY WITH
THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM FORECAST TO PUSH INTO PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON--HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR LATE NOVEMBER.
DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WHICH WILL BE
APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON
AIRPORTS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINTS INCREASE WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME UVM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK
PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN THE FAST UPPER FLOW
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS THE
WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...SO POPS WILL
BE INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH POPS 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE RIBBON OF 50-55 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE 850 HPA LOW-
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY LATE
MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 40-50 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PROMOTES DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG.
A FEW OF THE TSTMS THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLUAR
CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TYPE FEATURE TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON...
WHICH THE LATEST H3R HAS BEEN SHOWING A SQUALL LINE SIGNAL FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ATTM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN AT THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH THETA AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE COLD ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. WITH SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORIES IN PLACE...ANY SEA FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE DRAWN TO THE BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FOG HAS SO FAR BEEN HELD AT BAY WITH 300 FT WINDS HOLDING 20-25
KT. CIGS NEAR ALTERNATE MINIMUMS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z
WITH LEVELS RISING TO HIGH-END IFR OR LOW-END MVFR. VFR SHOULD
RETURN BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS MIXING HEIGHTS INCREASE IN RESPONSE
TO TEMPS RISING WELL INTO THE 70S. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
WILL LIKELY APPROACH THE TERMINALS FROM THE WEST AFTER 20Z...BUT
IT IS UNCLEAR THIS FAR OUT WHETHER THIS ACTIVITY WILL SURVIVE
BEFORE REACHING THE TERMINALS. WILL LEAVE MENTION OF SHRA/TSRA OUT
FOR NOW. ANOTHER ROUND OF LOW CIGS ARE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO LOW-END MVFR FOR NOW...ALTHOUGH IFR OR LOWER
IS CERTAINLY A REASONABLE POSSIBILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. FLAGS WILL THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TODAY
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD ANY FOG WILL BECOME...
BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED WIDESPREAD
DENSE SEA FOG JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH VSBYS
MEASURED IN TERMS OF FEET. HILTON HEAD ALSO DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN
FOG WITH A CEILING OF 100 FT...SO SUSPECT THE FOG EXTENDS DOWN TO
NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GEORGIA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SOON.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...63 SET IN 2001 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...66 SET IN 2001.
KSAV...65 SET IN 1979.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240850
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...DENSE SEA FOG TO LINGER OFF THE COAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STILL MONITORING CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FOG
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT FOR
MANY RUNS NOW THAT STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT
AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...COULD FORM THROUGH SUNRISE DESPITE
WINDS HOLDING IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE. CEILINGS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY
APPRECIABLE LOWERING SO FAR...BUT WEBCAMS OUT OF THE SAVANNAH
AREA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM HILTON HEAD...MONCKS CORNER AND FORT
STEWART SUGGEST STRATUS BUILD DOWN MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATING. ALSO...SEA FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS
COMPLICATING MATTERS AS WELL. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
A FEW COASTAL COUNTIES IF THE SEA FOG MOVES INLAND.

TODAY...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0
INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED WELL TO THE WEST. AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND WARM LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON--HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WHICH
WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND
CHARLESTON AIRPORTS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME UVM ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN THE FAST UPPER
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...SO POPS WILL
BE INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH POPS 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE RIBBON OF 50-55 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE 850 HPA LOW-
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY LATE
MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 40-50 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PROMOTES DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG.
A FEW OF THE TSTMS THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLUAR
CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TYPE FEATURE TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON...
WHICH THE LATEST H3R HAS BEEN SHOWING A SQUALL LINE SIGNAL FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ATTM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN AT THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH THETA AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE COLD ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. WITH SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORIES IN PLACE...ANY SEA FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE DRAWN TO THE BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS 06-07Z...OTHERWISE DRY. FOG/STRATUS IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. EVEN NOW...ITS QUITE UNCLEAR
HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BECOME. IT IS HARD TO
IMAGINE FOG BECOME DENSE WITH 10 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT NOW FOR MANY RUNS
THAT THE STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT FOG WITH LOW VSBYS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP
VSBYS AT 2 MILES WITH CIGS AT 800 FT. HOWEVER...MOST AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS CONDITIONS GOING BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND IN SOME
CASES AIRFIELD MINIMUMS SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR
PREVAILING. EXPECT KSAV TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18-19Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA
TODAY. NOT CONFIDENCE ENOUGH ON DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS TO
INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. FLAGS WILL THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TODAY
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD ANY FOG WILL BECOME...
BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED WIDESPREAD
DENSE SEA FOG JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH VSBYS
MEASURED IN TERMS OF FEET. HILTON HEAD ALSO DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN
FOG WITH A CEILING OF 100 FT...SO SUSPECT THE FOG EXTENDS DOWN TO
NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GEORGIA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SOON.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240850
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...
...DENSE SEA FOG TO LINGER OFF THE COAST...

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST TUESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE
FRONT AND PULLS THE FEATURE FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STILL MONITORING CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FOG
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT FOR
MANY RUNS NOW THAT STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT
AREAS OF FOG...POSSIBLY DENSE...COULD FORM THROUGH SUNRISE DESPITE
WINDS HOLDING IN THE 5-15 MPH RANGE. CEILINGS HAVE NOT SHOWN ANY
APPRECIABLE LOWERING SO FAR...BUT WEBCAMS OUT OF THE SAVANNAH
AREA AND OBSERVATIONS FROM HILTON HEAD...MONCKS CORNER AND FORT
STEWART SUGGEST STRATUS BUILD DOWN MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF
INITIATING. ALSO...SEA FOG JUST OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IS
COMPLICATING MATTERS AS WELL. MAY NEED A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR
A FEW COASTAL COUNTIES IF THE SEA FOG MOVES INLAND.

TODAY...A PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS OF 1.5-2.0
INCHES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. TODAY AS A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH REMAINS POSITIONED WELL TO THE WEST. AN
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AND WARM LOW-LEVEL FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF OF
MEXICO WILL RESULT IN THE CONTINUATION OF WARM AND HUMID
CONDITIONS TODAY WITH THE 70 DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM FORECAST TO PUSH
INTO PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON--HIGHLY UNUSUAL FOR
LATE NOVEMBER. DESPITE THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST TO SOAR WELL INTO THE UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 DEGREES...WHICH
WILL BE APPROACHING RECORD TERRITORY FOR BOTH THE SAVANNAH AND
CHARLESTON AIRPORTS. INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO INCREASE AS
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS INCREASE WITH SBCAPES APPROACHING 1500
J/KG BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THIS COUPLED WITH SOME UVM ASSOCIATED
WITH WEAK PERTURBATIONS MOVING RAPIDLY NORTHEAST IN THE FAST UPPER
FLOW ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A REDEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS LATER TODAY. THE BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ACROSS
THE WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ACTIVITY FORECAST TO
SPREAD SLOWLY EAST INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. MOST OF THE
MESOSCALE MODELS APPEAR TO CAPTURE THIS TREND WELL...SO POPS WILL
BE INCREASED TO 40-50 PERCENT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WITH POPS 30 PERCENT AT THE COAST.

THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS THIS
AFTERNOON WITH MODELS SHOWING THE AREA REMAINING EMBEDDED IN A
LARGE RIBBON OF 50-55 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR. THE 850 HPA LOW-
LEVEL JET IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN EVER SO SLIGHTLY BY LATE
MORNING...BUT SPEEDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE 40-50 KT DURING PEAK
HEATING AS MID-LEVEL DRY AIR PROMOTES DCAPE VALUES OVER 1200 J/KG.
A FEW OF THE TSTMS THEREFORE WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...POSSIBLY EXHIBITING OCCASIONAL SUPERCELLUAR
CHARACTERISTICS AT TIMES GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR A QLCS TYPE FEATURE TO DEVELOP BY MID-AFTERNOON...
WHICH THE LATEST H3R HAS BEEN SHOWING A SQUALL LINE SIGNAL FOR THE
PAST SEVERAL RUNS...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS LOW
ATTM. THIS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED THROUGHOUT THE DAY...HOWEVER.

SEA FOG REMAINS A CONCERN AT THE COAST TODAY AS HIGH THETA AIR
ADVECTS OVER THE COLD ATLANTIC SHELF WATERS. WITH SOUTHERLY
TRAJECTORIES IN PLACE...ANY SEA FOG THAT FORMS OVER THE ATLANTIC
WILL BE DRAWN TO THE BEACHES AND INTRACOASTAL WATERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AND BE POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY
SUNRISE TUESDAY. A RISK FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE
NIGHT WITH THE RIBBON OF TROPICAL MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE...
ALTHOUGH ACTIVITY WILL TEND TO DIMINISH BY MID-EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION. FOG/STRATUS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE NIGHT
WITH STRATUS BUILDING A POSSIBILITY. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 50S ACROSS FAR INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BEHIND THE FRONT
TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...STRONG SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...DRIVEN EAST BY A NOTABLE 150 KT UPPER LEVEL JET. THIS
SIGNIFICANT LARGE SCALE SUPPORT WILL ASSIST IN CYCLOGENESIS ALONG
THE STALLED COLD FRONT LINGERING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A
DEEPENING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THUS LIFT FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO UP TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE SENSIBLE WEATHER ON TUESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE COASTAL LOW AND THE LOCATION OF THE
WAVERING AXIS OF DEEP MOISTURE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT RAIN COVERAGE TO
INCREASE FROM EAST TO WEST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...PEAKING DURING
THE LATE NIGHT TIME FRAME WHEN BOTH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE AND
THE COASTAL LOW MAKE THEIR CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE FORECAST AREA.
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD RAIN...THICK CLOUD COVER...AND WINDS STEADILY
VEERING NORTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM SUGGEST THAT HIGH AND
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.
EXPECT HIGHS TO PEAK IN THE LOW TO MID 60S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE COASTAL LOW WILL RAPIDLY LIFT
NORTH AWAY FROM THE REGION...AS DAMPENING SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES
TOWARD AND ACROSS THE EAST COAST. RAIN COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES FALLING
BELOW 15 PERCENT BY THE EVENING PERIOD. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD FROM THE SOUTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF THE COASTAL LOW...WHILE
COLD ADVECTION SUPPORTS EVEN COOLER CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...MORE THAN 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES. CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS OVERNIGHT
WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

THURSDAY...A STRONGER AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON THE PERIPHERY
OF THE SURFACE HIGH...REACHING THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S UNDER
CLEAR SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH LATE THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY
FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY
ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE WEEKEND. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO SLOWLY
MODERATE AS A RESULT OF THE TRACK OF THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S FRIDAY...WHILE
PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO REFLECT THIS WARMING TREND...RANGING FROM
THE LOW TO MID 30S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...TO THE LOW TO MID
40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED
PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS 06-07Z...OTHERWISE DRY. FOG/STRATUS IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. EVEN NOW...ITS QUITE UNCLEAR
HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BECOME. IT IS HARD TO
IMAGINE FOG BECOME DENSE WITH 10 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT NOW FOR MANY RUNS
THAT THE STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT FOG WITH LOW VSBYS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP
VSBYS AT 2 MILES WITH CIGS AT 800 FT. HOWEVER...MOST AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS CONDITIONS GOING BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND IN SOME
CASES AIRFIELD MINIMUMS SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR
PREVAILING. EXPECT KSAV TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18-19Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA
TODAY. NOT CONFIDENCE ENOUGH ON DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS TO
INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
STALLED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
WATERS TODAY WITH CONDITIONS REMAINING WELL INTO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. FLAGS WILL THEREFORE BE MAINTAINED WITH SEAS
DIMINISHING TO 4-7 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 6-8 FT OFFSHORE WATERS
THIS AFTERNOON. THERE REMAINS A RISK FOR SEA FOG DEVELOPMENT TODAY
AS HIGH DEWPOINT AIR FLOWS OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL ATLANTIC SHELF
WATERS. IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD ANY FOG WILL BECOME...
BUT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR PILOT BOAT RECENTLY REPORTED WIDESPREAD
DENSE SEA FOG JUST OFFSHORE OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH VSBYS
MEASURED IN TERMS OF FEET. HILTON HEAD ALSO DROPPED TO 1 MILE IN
FOG WITH A CEILING OF 100 FT...SO SUSPECT THE FOG EXTENDS DOWN TO
NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...AND MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE GEORGIA
NEARSHORE WATERS AND THE CHARLESTON HARBOR SOON.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP ENOUGH THAT SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED. THE RISK FOR AT LEAST
PATCHY SEA FOG WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL NEAR THE
GULF STREAM TUESDAY...BEFORE LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
LINGERING BOUNDARY AND RAPIDLY LIFTS NORTH WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES...AS WELL AS A SMALL CHANCE FOR GALES IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA ZONES...ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE
TIMING AND DURATION OF SURGING WEST FLOW ALONG AND WEST OF THE
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT
TRACK AND LOCATION OF THE DEEPENING LOW SYSTEM. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL FALL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS BY THURSDAY...YET COULD REMAIN
SOMEWHAT ELEVATED AS THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT ON THE PERIPHERY
OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE INLAND. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY LATE
WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE
WATERS AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGHS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240527
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1227 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS 06-07Z...OTHERWISE DRY. FOG/STRATUS IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. EVEN NOW...ITS QUITE UNCLEAR
HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BECOME. IT IS HARD TO
IMAGINE FOG BECOME DENSE WITH 10 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT NOW FOR MANY RUNS
THAT THE STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT FOG WITH LOW VSBYS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP
VSBYS AT 2 MILES WITH CIGS AT 800 FT. HOWEVER...MOST AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS CONDITIONS GOING BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND IN SOME
CASES AIRFIELD MINIMUMS SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR
PREVAILING. EXPECT KSAV TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18-19Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA
TODAY. NOT CONFIDENCE ENOUGH ON DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS TO
INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240527
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1227 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL IMPACT KCHS 06-07Z...OTHERWISE DRY. FOG/STRATUS IS
THE PRIMARY CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. EVEN NOW...ITS QUITE UNCLEAR
HOW WIDESPREAD THE STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BECOME. IT IS HARD TO
IMAGINE FOG BECOME DENSE WITH 10 KT OF BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE...HOWEVER GUIDANCE HAS BEEN INSISTENT NOW FOR MANY RUNS
THAT THE STRATUS BUILD DOWN WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT FOG WITH LOW VSBYS AND CIGS. HAVE CONTINUED TO CAP
VSBYS AT 2 MILES WITH CIGS AT 800 FT. HOWEVER...MOST AVIATION
GUIDANCE HAS CONDITIONS GOING BELOW ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AND IN SOME
CASES AIRFIELD MINIMUMS SEVERAL HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS AND ISSUE AMENDMENTS AS NEEDED.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SLIGHTLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH MVFR
PREVAILING. EXPECT KSAV TO RETURN TO VFR BY 18-19Z. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW TSTMS WILL MEANDER AROUND THE AREA
TODAY. NOT CONFIDENCE ENOUGH ON DIRECT IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS TO
INCLUDE A MENTION ATTM.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240359
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1059 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS HAS ENDED. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF
TORNADO WATCH 559 HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT GOING TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240359
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1059 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE RISK FOR SEVERE TSTMS HAS ENDED. THE REMAINING PORTIONS OF
TORNADO WATCH 559 HAVE BEEN CANCELLED. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WITH
EMBEDDED TSTMS CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS INTERIOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. ADJUSTED POPS TO
REFLECT GOING TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240309
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1009 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH FOR DORCHESTER-COLLETON-BEAUFORT AND THE
BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS.

LINE OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE
PARTS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
END. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240309
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1009 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH FOR DORCHESTER-COLLETON-BEAUFORT AND THE
BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS.

LINE OF STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE
PARTS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
ONCE THIS LINE MOVES THROUGH...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
END. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL BUT BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-DORCHESTER-
BERKELEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS. LINE OF
STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CANCELLED TORNADO WATCH FOR ALL BUT BEAUFORT-CHARLESTON-DORCHESTER-
BERKELEY AS WELL AS THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS. LINE OF
STRONG TSTMS CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST AND WILL AFFECT THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. ONCE THIS LINE MOVES
THROUGH...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL END. UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT
PRODUCT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
904 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY AT 24/01Z.
WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEVERE RISK
PRIMARY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-95 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RECENTLY CANCELLED TATTNALL-EVANS-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-HAMPTON FROM
TORNADO WATCH 559. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES INCLUDING SAVANNAH BY 10 PM IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 240204
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
904 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY AT 24/01Z.
WARM SECTOR CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT. SEVERE RISK
PRIMARY CONFINED TO AREAS EAST OF I-95 FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
RECENTLY CANCELLED TATTNALL-EVANS-BULLOCH-EFFINGHAM-HAMPTON FROM
TORNADO WATCH 559. WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO CLEAR ADDITIONAL
COUNTIES INCLUDING SAVANNAH BY 10 PM IF TRENDS CONTINUE.

UPDATED GRIDS/TEXT PRODUCT TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 240059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
759 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO THE QLCS MAY START TO DWINDLE
SOME IN ITS INTENSITY WITH TIME BY 06Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE
POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN NEAR 70!
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS IN AND NEAR OR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN QLCS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT...0-3KM HELICITY AS HIGH AS 250-300 M/SEC
AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES GREATER THAN 1 UNIT AND VGP
VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 0.2 SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY
MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AT THE LATEST.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
759 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO THE QLCS MAY START TO DWINDLE
SOME IN ITS INTENSITY WITH TIME BY 06Z AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE
POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR THE SAVANNAH
RIVER.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES WITH
SURFACE DEW POINTS THAT ARE WELL INTO THE 60S OR EVEN NEAR 70!
THERE HAVE BEEN SEVERAL DISCRETE SUPERCELLS AND SHORT LINE
SEGMENTS IN AND NEAR OR OUR FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING WITH THE
MAIN QLCS. THIS WILL CONTINUE AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES TOWARD THE
COAST.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT...0-3KM HELICITY AS HIGH AS 250-300 M/SEC
AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES GREATER THAN 1 UNIT AND VGP
VALUES NEAR OR GREATER THAN 0.2 SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES
INTO AND THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN ISOLATED TORNADOES. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY
MIDNIGHT OR 1 AM AT THE LATEST.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK AND SOME MIXING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
CONVECTION THAT LIFTS CEILINGS AT LEAST TEMPORARILY. BUT WE HAVE
AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A
LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO
SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR
NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE APPROACHING SQUALL LINE IS MOVING STEADILY EAST AND WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA...GUSTY
WINDS AND IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO
FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL
POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF
STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR
INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT
LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE
SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION
STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO A BAND OF HIGHER
MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE
INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION YET
AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT...A FEW OF WHICH COULD STILL BE
STRONG OR SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED TORNADIC
WATERSPOUTS TO OCCUR. REMAIN IN CLOSE CONTACT WITH YOUR NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR APPROPRIATE VHF CHANNELS.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240014
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO IT/LL GIVE US PRETTY MUCH A
GLANCING BLOW AS IT PASSES AWAY TO THE NORTH/NW BY 06Z. AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN
AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR OUR FAR INTERIOR GA ZONES.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 UNIT SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN FACT WE HAVE SEEN BROAD AND WEAK
CIRCULATION ON THE STORM HEADING TOWARD THE SYLVANIA AREA THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY 10-11 PM.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 240014
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
714 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
NEGATIVELY TILTED MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL BE AT ITS CLOSEST APPROACH
THIS EVENING TO THE LOCAL AREA. IT IS STARTING TO PIVOT MORE
NORTH/NE RATHER THAN EASTWARD...SO IT/LL GIVE US PRETTY MUCH A
GLANCING BLOW AS IT PASSES AWAY TO THE NORTH/NW BY 06Z. AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND A WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION...WITH SOME INDICATIONS OF A TRIPLE POINT/OCCLUSION NEAR AN
AREA OF CONFLUENCE NEAR OUR FAR INTERIOR GA ZONES.

CINH IS ATTEMPTING TO HOLD ON AND/OR DEVELOP OVER A WIDER
AREA...BUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT THIS HAS BEEN A
DIFFICULT PROCESS AS INSTEAD WE/RE STARTING TO SEE SOME MORE
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST ZONES.

LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE SHORT WAVE
AND A STRONG 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET AND STRONG KINEMATICS WITH 0-6
KM BULK SHEAR OVER 50 KT AND A THIN SLIVER OF SHREBS3 VALUES
GREATER THAN 1 UNIT SUGGESTS THAT THE QLCS THAT MOVES INTO AND
THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA COULD PRODUCE SOME DAMAGING WINDS AND
EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO. IN FACT WE HAVE SEEN BROAD AND WEAK
CIRCULATION ON THE STORM HEADING TOWARD THE SYLVANIA AREA THIS
EVENING. ANY SEVERE RISK WILL BE BY 10-11 PM.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE ALIGNMENT OF THE POP SCHEME...BUT EVERYONE
SHOULD GET AT LEAST SOME ADDITIONAL CONVECTION WITH 70-80 POPS
ACROSS THE BOARD EARLY ON...WITH COVERAGE STARTING TO WANE
OVERNIGHT FROM SW/WEST TO EAST/NE AND DOWN TO 30-40 POPS LATE.

THE DIURNAL TEMP CURVE WILL SHOW THE WARM ADVECTION WE/RE IN WITH
VERY LITTLE DOWNWARD TRENDS THROUGH THE NIGHT. WE/LL ACTUALLY BE
CLOSE TO WHAT NORMAL HIGHS SHOULD BE FOR THE DAYTIME.

FOG WILL BE A CONCERN GIVEN THE FULLY SATURATED GROUNDS AND THE
BUILD-DOWN OF STRATUS. THIS WILL BE OFFSET SOME BY STRONG WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK...BUT WE HAVE AREAS OF FOG NONETHELESS. THERE
HAS BEEN SOME INDICATIONS OF A LITTLE SEA FOG ALONG AND OFF THE
COAST...AND AS THE FLOW VEERS TO SOUTH AND SOUTH/SW SOME OF THIS
WILL IMPACT THE AREA AS WELL. FOR NOW THERE IS NO DENSE FOG
ADVISORY...BUT THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK DOES ADDRESS THIS
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY A PLETHORA OF WEATHER THROUGH
THE 00Z TAF CYCLE AS A WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
AND GIVES WAY TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST/NW LATE
MONDAY.

KCHS...THE FIRST BAND OF CONVECTION NEAR THE AIRFIELD IS BECOMING
MORE SCATTERED THIS EVENING...BUT A SECOND BAND NEAR AND SOUTH OF
THE SAVANNAH RIVER SHOULD ARRIVE AFTER 02Z IF IT HOLDS TOGETHER.
WE ARE THEREFORE SHOWING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN TSRA AND LIGHT
FOG. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

KSAV...THE REMNANTS OF A LINE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL IMPACT THE
TERMINAL EARLY TONIGHT...RESULTING IN TSRA AND IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH 03Z. THE CONVECTION LOOKS TO FADE WITH TIME OVERNIGHT...BUT
ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS STILL POSSIBLE. AS THIS OCCURS WE ALSO LOOK
FOR SOME BUILDING DOWN OF STRATUS AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN FOG
AND LOW STRATUS TO OCCUR INTO MONDAY MORNING. WIND SHEAR WILL ALSO
DEVELOP AS A 35-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSES THROUGH...AND THIS WILL
TRANSLATE DOWN TO THE SURFACE MONDAY MORNING WHEN SURFACE WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY. THERE SHOULD BE SOME IMPROVEMENT LATE IN THE
TAF CYCLE AS THE INVERSION STARTS TO LIFT. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY
TO A BAND OF HIGHER MOISTURE IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT
THAT STRUGGLES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION YET AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A MUCH GOOD CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT
OFF THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.
BREEZY DURING WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. THIS ALONG WITH A PACKED GRADIENT
BETWEEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NE AND DEEPENING LOW
PRESSURE MOVING THROUGH THE MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ALL WATERS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

THE OTHER CONCERN WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS
CONTINUES TO MOVE IN. CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT
SOME POINT WITH VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG
ADVISORIES WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE
WATERS WHERE A HUGE TEMP SPREAD WILL EXIST BETWEEN THE MID-UPPER
50S WATER TEMPS AND THE WARMER MID-UPPER 60S AIR MASS OVERHEAD.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 232124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
424 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA THIS EVENING. A
SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND
OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT AND PULLS THE FRONT FURTHER INTO THE
ATLANTIC. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT NORTH AND APPEARS CLOSE TO I-16
IN GEORGIA. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHWEST
GEORGIA WHERE SOME MINOR INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED AS INDICATED BY
1000 J/KG OF MUCAPE SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AS PER THE SPC
MESOANALYSIS. THERE HAS BEEN SOME DAMAGING WIND REPORTS UPSTREAM
SO CANNOT RULE OUT SOME ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WITH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS BUT DIURNAL COOLING ALONG WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM
LIFTING NORTHWARD MORE THAN EASTWARD SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE ON A
WEAKENING TREND AS IT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST GA/SC. SPC IS WATCHING
SOUTHEAST GA ESPECIALLY FOR A POSSIBLE TORNADO WATCH SO WILL HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS FOR SURE.

OTHERWISE...RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT NOT TO ZERO
AS THERE IS STILL SOME LIFT/MOISTURE IN PLACE AHEAD OF THE MAIN
UPPER TROUGH WELL TO THE WEST. ANY RAIN SHOULD BE LIGHT. OF MORE
CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG DUE TO THE ABUNDANT LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...LIKELY MORE A RESULT OF STRATUS BUILDING
DOWN TO THE GROUND AND/OR SEA FOG ADVECTING ONSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A HUMONGOUS AND DEEP LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL
COVER MUCH OF THE LOWER 48...THE GULF OF MEXICO AND OLD
MEXICO...WITH A STEADY BUT PROGRESSIVE MIGRATION EAST THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE FIND A DEEP AND VERTICALLY
STACKED LOW OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES INITIALLY THAT HEADS QUICKLY
NE INTO CANADA THEREAFTER. TRAILING FROM THE CYCLONE IS A SOMEWHAT
DETACHED COLD FRONT THAT HAS BECOME BOGGED DOWN AS IT ORIENTS ITSELF
WITH THE SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS FRONT WILL LIMP ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
MONDAY MORNING...HEADING INTO THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND INTO THE ATLANTIC AFTER NIGHTFALL.

WHILE THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHERE THE MAIN MOISTURE AXIS IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT WILL BECOME SITUATED IN RELATION TO THE LOCAL
ZONES...IT WILL CERTAINLY BE NEAR IF NOT DIRECTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN SC
AND SE GA. AND PWATS WITHIN THIS BAND WILL BE CLOSE TO 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. GIVEN THAT THERE IS NVA ALOFT AND WE/RE NOT
ENTIRELY CONVINCED ON THE LOCATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS WE ARE
HESITANT TO SHOW ANYTHING MORE THAN SCATTERED POPS. THIS MAY NEED
ADJUSTING THOUGH IN UPCOMING FORECASTS ONCE TRENDS BECOME BETTER
DEFINED. THERE IS MODEST THERMODYNAMICS CONSIDERING ITS LATE
NOVEMBER AND DECENT SHEAR...SO THERE MIGHT BE A VERY LOW END RISK OF
A FEW STRONG OR SEVERE T-STORMS.

AS THE FRONT SLIDES INTO THE OCEAN MONDAY NIGHT AND NOCTURNAL
STABILIZING INFLUENCES TAKE OVER WE LOOK FOR THE BULK OF THE
CONVECTION TO FADE QUICKLY. BUT GIVEN THE PROXIMITY TO THE FRONT WE
STILL NEED TO SHOW SMALL POPS OVER OUR COASTAL ZONES THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

DESPITE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND WARM
ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BOOST TEMPS FAR ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMS. WE MIGHT ACTUALLY BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE IF MORE
INSOLATION DEVELOPS...BUT FOR NOW WE ARE SHOWING TEMPS KNOCKING ON
THE DOOR OF 80 AWAY FROM THE NOTICEABLY COOLER BEACHES. AT PRESENT
IT LOOKS LIKE WE/LL BE JUST SHY OF ANY RECORDS FOR THE DATE /SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW MORE SPECIFIC RECORDS/. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SOME 10-15 DEGREES THAN THEY/LL BE TONIGHT AS SOME COOLER
AIR FILTERS IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

FOG...SATURATED GROUNDS AND STRATUS BUILD-DOWN FOR TONIGHT WILL
CERTAINLY LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG THAT WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING.
DENSE FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY SEA FOG IS THROWN INTO THE
MIX. ANY ANY SEA FOG THAT IS AROUND WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE
COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PROMINENT SHORT WAVE THAT WAS JUST
ENTERING THE PACIFIC NW REGION AS OF SUNDAY EVENING WILL DIG THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE LOWER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY...HEADING
ACROSS THE TN VALLEY AND NORTHERN GULF TUESDAY NIGHT...AND FINALLY
PASSING INTO THE ATLANTIC WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
OLD COLD FRONT WILL LINGER NOT TOO FAR OFF THE SE COAST...PROBABLY
OUT NEAR OR JUST EAST OF THE GULF STREAM. A POWERFUL UPPER JET ON
THE ORDER OF 150-175 KT OR GREATER WILL DRIVE THE SHORT WAVE...AND
THESE FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO CREATE CYCLOGENESIS ALONG THE
STALLED OUT FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE OFF THE COAST TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. ISENTROPIC LIFT...LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SOME
FLUCTUATION OF THE MOISTURE AXIS BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST WILL
GENERATE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR RAINS TO SPREAD BACK INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THE WETTEST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY BEFORE THE LOW PULLS OFF TO THE NE AND DRIER AIR
PENETRATES IN BY LATE IN THE VALID PERIOD. A CONTINUE INFLUX OF
COOLER AIR FROM THE NORTH...EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE HIGHER
RAIN PROBABILITIES WILL PROMOTE MUCH COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE
THURSDAY...DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE
GRADUALLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS
OVER THE WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
THE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH HIGHS
REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING INTO THE
UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR DRY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
MONDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD ANY ISOLATED TO CONVECTION IMPACT THE
TERMINALS. OTHERWISE...A MUCH GREATER CHANCE FOR MVFR OR LOWER
CONDITIONS IN RAIN LATE TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON A COLD FRONT OFF
THE SE COAST. SOLID VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THEREAFTER. BREEZY AT
TIMES MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS GIVEN
THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY JET OVER THE AREA SOUTH OF A
NORTHWARD MOVING WARM FRONT. STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD BE NEAR THE
GULF STREAM WHERE GALE FORCE GUSTS NEAR 35-40 KT ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW- LEVEL
JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH WINDS AND
SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT OUTSIDE OF CHARLESTON HARBOR. THE OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE SEA FOG AS A WARM/HUMID AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MOVE IN.
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME DENSE FOG DEVELOPING AT SOME POINT WITH
VISIBILITIES DROPPING BELOW 1/2 NM SO DENSE FOG ADVISORIES WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE COOLER NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH WITH IT/S
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SE OF THE LOCAL WATERS...AND WILL
FIGHT TO HOLD ON BEFORE GIVING WAY TO A COLD FRONT THAT TRICKLES IN
FROM THE WEST/NW LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS STILL DECENT
PINCHING OF THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO SURFACE FEATURES AND ALSO
SOME MIXING OF 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TO PRODUCE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER MOST IF NOT ALL MARINE ZONES THROUGH
MONDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES IN MONDAY NIGHT AND THE GRADIENT RELAXES
CONSIDERABLE WE LOOK FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT IN BOTH WINDS AND SEAS.

ALSO OF CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEA FOG AND/OR FOG FROM
OVER LAND AREAS THAT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC. GIVEN A HUGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER SHELF WATERS AND THE OVER-RIDING AIR MASS WE
ANTICIPATE AT LEAST PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG WILL PREVAIL INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. DENSE FOG ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT NEAR OR
EAST OF THE GULF STREAM...AWAITING FOR DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO
OCCUR TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...BEFORE THAT LOW PULLS AWAY LATE
IN THE PERIOD. WE/LL ENJOY CONDITIONS BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING...BUT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AND AN OUTSIDE CHANCE OF GALES WILL OCCUR LATER TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW TAKES SHAPE AND INTENSIFIES.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH BETTER MARINE CONDITIONS TO TAKE
HOLD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLIPS
INTO THE ATLANTIC NEXT WEEKEND.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
CHARLESTON COUNTY WHERE MOST OF THE WAVE ENERGY IS EXPECTED TO BE
DIRECTED. BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS COULD BE AROUND 5 FT...ESPECIALLY
ON EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961. /BROKEN TODAY/
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942. /BROKEN TODAY/
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

MAX TEMPS RECORDS FOR 24 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...82 SET IN 1986 AND PREVIOUS.
KCXM...81 SET IN 1998.
KSAV...83 SET IN 1967.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ050.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231838
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD JUST NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE BOUNDARY THEN SNAKES UP ALONG THE SC
COAST. RADAR INDICATES SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF
THERE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE. STILL COULD BE SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AS THIS COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SG/GA THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE
AREA...LIKELY INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST AND INTO THE MID 70S
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
ADDED INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231838
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
138 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WARM FRONT APPEARS TO HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS NORTHWARD JUST NORTH
OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. THE BOUNDARY THEN SNAKES UP ALONG THE SC
COAST. RADAR INDICATES SOME BREAKS IN THE RAIN SHIELD NORTH OF
THERE WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN OFFSHORE. STILL COULD BE SOME POCKETS
OF HEAVY RAIN INLAND BUT FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED. WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE SQUALL LINE DEVELOPING NEAR THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AS THIS COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS INTO AT LEAST
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SG/GA THIS EVENING. TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY CLIMB AS THE FRONT PUSHES NORTH OF THE
AREA...LIKELY INTO THE UPPER 60S NORTH AND WEST AND INTO THE MID 70S
GENERALLY SOUTH AND EAST OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE
A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE PUSHES THROUGH THIS EVENING.

KCHS...MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MID EVENING THOUGH
OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE IN RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LATER THIS
EVENING WE EXPECT CEILINGS TO DROP TO IFR/LIFR WITH VSBYS ALSO
DROPPING THROUGH LATE NIGHT AS STRATUS BUILDS DOWN BENEATH THE
INVERSION. IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING BEFORE LIFTING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON.

KSAV...IFR CEILING/VSBY THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON BEFORE LIFTING TO MVFR
BEHIND THE MAIN AREA OF RAIN. A BROKEN LINE OF STORMS MAY MOVE
THROUGH THE TERMINAL LATE THIS EVENING THOUGH THE CHANCES OF A
CONTIGUOUS BAND MAKING IT AS FAR EAST AS KSAV ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION
IN THE 18Z TAFS. LATER TONIGHT AS ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
BENEATH A LOWERING INVERSION...IFR CEILINGS/VSBYS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO MID MONDAY MORNING BEFORE LIFTING TO
MVFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR 2 INCHES SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH
OR SO IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE
ADDED INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231641
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1141 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
DID TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE RAIN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COASTAL AREAS AS THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SHIFTS OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS LOOK VERY LOW
OVER LAND GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG
THE FRONT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
70 NORTH AND WEST AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE IN THE LINGERING WEDGE
THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVAILING IFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN AND GENERALLY WORSE
CONDS WILL BE AT KCHS WHICH WILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR LONGEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A MENTION FOR
TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO LIMITED
CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ADDED
INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231641
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1141 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FORECAST WAS PRETTY MUCH ON TARGET SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE.
DID TREND RAIN CHANCES DOWN ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AS IT APPEARS
THERE WILL BE A DECENT LULL IN THE RAIN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THAT AREA. ALSO ADDED MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG NEAR THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COASTAL AREAS AS THE
WARM/HUMID AIR MASS SHIFTS OVER THE COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS.
OTHERWISE...WE DO EXPECT SOME INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP AS THE WARM
FRONT LIFTS THROUGH BUT SEVERE WEATHER PROSPECTS LOOK VERY LOW
OVER LAND GIVEN THE LIMITED INSTABILITY...MAINLY CONFINED TO
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN HAZARD BUT AN
ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS SHEAR IS ENHANCED ALONG
THE FRONT.

HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE MID 70S SOUTH AND EAST BUT REMAIN CLOSER TO
70 NORTH AND WEST AS THOSE AREAS WILL BE IN THE LINGERING WEDGE
THE LONGEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PREVAILING IFR LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM FRONT MOVES
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA. THE STEADIEST RAIN AND GENERALLY WORSE
CONDS WILL BE AT KCHS WHICH WILL BE IN THE COOL SECTOR LONGEST. WINDS
WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT
LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN UNTIL THE FRONT
PASSES AND SURFACE WINDS PICK UP. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER ROUND OF
SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A
SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A MENTION FOR
TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE THE SQUALL
LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON EXACTLY HOW
WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO LIMITED
CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ADDED PATCHY FOG TO
THE FORECAST AS WELL AS THE WARM/HUMID AIR MOVES IN OVER THE
COOLER NEAR SHORE WATERS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SC/NORTHERN GA COAST.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO NEAR 12 FT AT BUOY 41004 WITH THE
HIGHEST SEAS NEAR THE COAST OCCURRING OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST. THIS COULD PRODUCE BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS AROUND 5
FT...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST FACING BEACHES OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MOST AREAS HAVE PICKED UP ABOUT 0.5-1.5 INCHES OF RAIN WITH SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS SO FAR. AN ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO IS
POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE URBAN COASTAL AREAS DUE TO THE ADDED
INFLUENCE FROM THE TIDES.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 231109
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
609 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...
...RECORD DAILY RAINFALL LIKELY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. HEAVY RAINS HAVE REACHED KSAV AND WILL IMPACT KCHS BY
SUNRISE. PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING WITH THE STEADIER RAINS ENDING FROM SOUTH-NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO END AT KSAV BY 16Z AND KCHS BY 19Z. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES DURING POCKETS OF THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT
KSAV AND POSSIBLY KCHS GIVEN THE STRONG 950-975 MB WINDS NOTED IN
RAP SOUNDINGS AND KCLX VAD WIND PROFILE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A
MENTION FOR TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE
THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT
BOTH TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 231109
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
609 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...
...RECORD DAILY RAINFALL LIKELY...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE
FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...
BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS/SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN ZONES.
THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A
CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS
SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM
FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES REACHING AS HIGH
AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WITH
IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR VALUES
OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES OF 1-1.25
UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE LOOKS TO
BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN ISOLATED
TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO THE WARM
FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE AT BEST AT
THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED THROUGHOUT
THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE AT THE TERMINALS THIS
MORNING. HEAVY RAINS HAVE REACHED KSAV AND WILL IMPACT KCHS BY
SUNRISE. PREVAILING IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THIS
MORNING WITH THE STEADIER RAINS ENDING FROM SOUTH-NORTH THROUGH
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. THE HEAVIER RAINS ARE
EXPECTED TO END AT KSAV BY 16Z AND KCHS BY 19Z. UNTIL THEN...IFR
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY WITH AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR
LIFR CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES DURING POCKETS OF THE MOST INTENSE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT. GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE LIKELY. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL REMAIN A CONCERN AT
KSAV AND POSSIBLY KCHS GIVEN THE STRONG 950-975 MB WINDS NOTED IN
RAP SOUNDINGS AND KCLX VAD WIND PROFILE. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWER/TSTMS POSSIBLE THIS EVENING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM
OF A SQUALL LINE. FOR NOW LIMITED CONDITIONS TO MVFR WITH A
MENTION FOR TSRA. LOW STRATUS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ONCE
THE SQUALL LINE MOVES THROUGH. THERE REMAINS SOME QUESTIONS ON
EXACTLY HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE THE STRATUS/FOG WILL BECOME...SO
LIMITED CONDITIONS TO JUST ABOVE AIRFIELD ALTERNATE MINIMUMS AT
BOTH TERMINALS FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING AS HIGH AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES
OF 1-1.25 UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE
AT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$


ST/WMS






000
FXUS62 KCHS 230911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

...HEAVY RAINS WITH A RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH THE AREA TODAY. A COLD
FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST AND OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE AN OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE PULLS THE FRONT TO THE
NORTHEAST AND ALLOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO RETURN INTO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
A POWERFUL SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS TREKKING QUICKLY ACROSS
TEXAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED THIS
AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY THROUGH
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. THIS EVENING. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE
FEATURING PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES ADVECTING NORTH VIA 40-60 KT OF 850
HPA FLOW COUPLED WITH AN EXPANDING CORRIDOR OF UPPER DIFLUENCE
FORMING OUT WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE IS ALREADY
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD RAINS OVER MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA... GEORGIA
AND NORTHERN FLORIDA THIS MORNING. THIS LARGE AREA OF RAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO EXPAND IN BOTH AREA AND INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY AS
THE COMBINATION OF ANONYMOUSLY HIGH MOISTURE AND INCREASING UPPER
DYNAMICS BECOME ALIGNED.

THE WINDOW FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT CURRENTLY
STRETCHING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA THEN ARCHING BACK INTO FAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TO A POSITION OFF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST MOVES NORTH. MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING THE INLAND WEDGE
STEADILY BREAKING DOWN AS THE PARENT HIGH MOVES FARTHER OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS. IN FACT...MODEST PRESSURE FALLS
ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE CORE OF THE WEDGE...WHICH SUGGEST
WEAKENING IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
AND AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS TO LIFT INTO THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND
PEE DEE BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...AFTER DROPPING SEVERAL INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE. POPS NEAR 100
PERCENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FOR ALL AREAS TODAY...ALTHOUGH
DIMINISHING POPS DOWN INTO THE 30-50 PERCENT CATEGORY WILL BE
HIGHLIGHTED MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
AS THE STRONGEST WARM AIR ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC ASSENT AND LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALL SHIFT NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

PINNING DOWN HIGHS WILL BE TRICKY...ESPECIALLY INLAND ALONG THE
SOUTHERN MIDLANDS...WHERE THE WARM FRONT WILL REACH VERY LATE IN
THE DAY. THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT BUST POTENTIAL HERE... ESPECIALLY
OVER PARTS OF ALLENDALE-JENKINS-SCREVEN COUNTIES WHERE IT IS
POSSIBLE THE WEDGE MAY NOT ERODE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. WILL FORECAST
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S IN THESE THREE ZONES WITH LOWER- MID 70S
ELSEWHERE. FURTHER REFINEMENTS WILL BE NEEDED AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ONCE MESOSCALE TRENDS AND WARM FRONTAL TIMING BECOMES
MORE APPARENT.

THERE WILL BE TWO OPPORTUNITIES FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY...ONE
WITH THE WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH THE
SECOND ASSOCIATED WITH THE CORE OF THE STRONGEST DYNAMICS TONIGHT.
FOR TODAY...ITS A TYPICAL LOW CAPE/HIGH SHEAR SCENARIO. SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY LOOKS FAIRLY WEAK WITH MODIFIED SOUNDINGS ONLY
YIELDING 500-800 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH A LIFTED INDEX OF -2 TO -4C.
ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS POOR...KINEMATIC PROFILES BECOME QUITE
FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING UPDRAFTS WITH AS MUCH AS 50-60 KT OF BULK
SHEAR AND 0-1 KM HELICITY VALUES REACHING AS HIGH AS 500-700
M2/S2. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE TSTMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND/OR
AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WHERE LOW- LEVEL VORTICITY AND SHERBS3 VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1 UNIT
WILL BE MAXIMIZED...ALTHOUGH ANY CONVECTIVE CELL IN THE WARM
SECTOR COULD EASILY PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS WITH AN IMPRESSIVE A
50-60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IN PLACE. AN ARGUABLY BETTER CHANCE FOR
SEVERE TSTMS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AND WILL BE ADDRESSED IN THE
SHORT TERM SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...MODELS SHOW THE WARM FRONT DISPLACED JUST TO THE NORTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MIDLANDS AND PEE DEE AS A POWERFUL...
NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE PIVOTS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES.
ALTHOUGH ONLY SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE IN
PROGRESS AT SUNSET...MESOSCALE MODELS HINT THAT AT A SOMEWHAT
ORGANIZED LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF
A QLCS OR SQUALL LINE...COULD BE APPROACHING THE FAR WESTERN
ZONES. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO ORGANIZE ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF
A CORRIDOR OF INTENSE UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE
ITSELF AS IT ENCOUNTERS AN INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE
ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE WAKE OF
THE WARM FRONT. NAM12 INSTABILITY PROGS SHOW SBCAPE VALUES
REACHING AS HIGH AS 800-1200 J/KG WITHIN THE CORE OF THE WARM
SECTOR WITH IMPRESSIVE KINEMATIC PROFILES FEATURING 0-6 KM BULK
SHEAR VALUES OF 50-55 KT ALIGNED WITH A CORRIDOR OF SHERBS3 VALUES
OF 1-1.25 UNITS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY IS ONLY WEAK TO MODEST AT
BEST...IMPRESSIVE UPPER DYNAMICS COULD BE ENOUGH TO COVER COME
THIS TO SUPPORT A CONTINUATION OR EVEN A STRENGTHENING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT CROSSES THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS MONDAY. THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH THIS LINE
LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR AN
ISOLATED TORNADO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST TIER CLOSER TO
THE WARM FRONT. THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS ONLY MODERATE
AT BEST AT THIS POINT IN TIME AND FURTHER REFINEMENT WILL BE NEED
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

POPS OF OF 30-50 PERCENT WILL BE DEPICTED TONIGHT WITH GRIDDED
POPS REACHING AS HIGH AS 60-70 PERCENT ALIGNED WITH THE EXPECTED
PLACEMENT OF THE CONVECTIVE LINE. IT WILL BE BE A WARM/HUMID NIGHT
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S FOR MOST AREAS.
DESPITE IMPRESSIVE WIND FIELDS...GUIDANCE SUGGESTS WIDESPREAD
STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY FOG WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE.
IT IS UNCLEAR EXACTLY HOW THIS PART OF THE FORECAST WILL
UNFOLD GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF WIND THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...BUT ITS
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THE FOG COULD BECOME DENSE AT TIMES. WILL SHOW
AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDS...ROUGHLY TIMED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE
SQUALL LINE.

MONDAY...THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BECOME LOCATED BETWEEN RIDGING
OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE AXIS OF AN UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL
UNITED STATES. THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD FRONT WILL BE SLOW AND
STEADY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DUE TO ITS NEARLY PARALLEL
ORIENTATION TO THE UPPER FLOW. CONSIDERING MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
DYNAMICS AND FORCING WILL BE LIFTING OUT OF THE REGION...CONVECTION
APPEARS LIMITED TO A NARROW BAND OF DEEP MOISTURE AHEAD AND ALONG
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY. WILL THUS KEEP RAIN CHANCES CAPPED IN THE
30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND CLOSER TO
THE COAST...WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD POOL AHEAD OF THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME QUITE WARM MONDAY AFTERNOON CONSIDERING A
WARMER START TO THE DAY AND PERSISTENT SOLID SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW.
EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 70S...AND GIVEN THE
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS...HAVE INCLUDED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
THUNDER. SHOWER POTENTIAL WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE
EVENING AND NIGHTTIME HOURS...AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE AND DRIER
AIR APPROACHES IN ITS WAKE. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY 10 TO 15
DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...FALLING INTO UPPER 40S FAR
INLAND TO THE LOW/MID 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

TUESDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL STALL JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...AS HIGH PRESSURE STRUGGLES TO PUSH EASTWARD. STRONG
SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS STATES AND ACROSS THE GULF COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG
THE SOUTHERN END OF THE STALLED BOUNDARY. RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE DUE TO THE LACK OF A CLEAN FRONTAL PROGRESSION...AND
COVERAGE WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE LOCATION OF THE
MEANDERING FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CONVERGENCE ZONE. BOTH THE 00Z
ECMWF AND 00Z GFS SUGGEST THAT RAIN COVERAGE WILL INCREASE TUESDAY
NIGHT...WHEN THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY SWINGS TOWARD THE
AREA AND THE SURFACE WAVE LIFTS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. HAVE INDICATED POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE ALL AREAS
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS...INCREASING TO LIKELY RAIN FOR THE
COASTLINE AND CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NOTABLY COOLER ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM...WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOW 60S AND NIGHTTIME
MINIMUMS IN THE LOW 40S.

WEDNESDAY...LOW PRESSURE JUST OFFSHORE WILL STEADILY LIFT NORTH
UP THE COAST...AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER TROUGH
AXIS MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY MIDDAY. THE DAY WILL
BEGIN WITH A RATHER NOTABLE GRADIENT IN RAIN COVERAGE...WITH THE
CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY AREA SEEING NUMEROUS SHOWERS...AND THE
GEORGIA ZONES FARTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER SEEING
SCATTERED COVERAGE AT BEST. DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY WRAP INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM...AND EXPECT
RAIN CHANCES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY
THE EVENING HOURS. THE REGION WILL BE LOCATED ON THE COLD SIDE OF
THE SYSTEM...AND COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH FALLING HEIGHTS
ALOFT WILL SUPPORT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD DAY...WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUPPRESSED IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH LATE THURSDAY...
DESCENDING INTO THE SOUTHEAST STATES BY FRIDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY
SHIFTING TOWARD THE COASTLINE AND NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS OVER THE
WEEKEND. UNSEASONABLY COOL CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE
30S. A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WILL OCCUR OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE COASTLINE...WITH
HIGHS REACHING THE 60S BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND LOWS MODERATING
INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S BY SUNDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS APPEAR
DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AND WILL KEEP RAIN OUT OF THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
KCHS...CONDITIONS ARE POISED TO DETERIORATE RAPIDLY AT THE THE
TERMINAL OVERNIGHT AS RAINS MOVING FROM THE SOUTH AND CIGS DROP
INTO MVFR THRESHOLDS. THE HIGHEST WEATHER IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED TO
OCCUR 15-19Z WHEN THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS MOVES THROUGH ALONG
THE NOSE OF A LOW-LEVEL JET. EXPECT IFR CONDITIONS DURING THIS
TIME. THE BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD TRANSLATE NORTH OF KCHS AFTER
19Z AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH. SHOULD SEE VERY GUSTY WINDS
DURING THIS TIME WITH GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. ANOTHER
ROUND OF LIGHT SHOWERS COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 01Z.

KSAV...RAIN AND LOWER CIGS ARE POISED TO ENCOMPASS THE TERMINAL
SHORTLY. EXPECT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS BY 09Z WITH CIGS
DROPPING TO BKN015 WITH PREVAILING 4SM -RA. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST
RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL 11-16Z AS THE NOSE OF
THE LOW-LEVEL JET MOVES THROUGH. LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS LIKELY
DURING THIS TIME AS 2000 FT WINDS INCREASE TO 40 KT. THE HEAVIEST
RAINS WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE TERMINAL BY 16Z AS THE WARM FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. SHOULD SEE GUSTY WINDS DEVELOP IT ITS WAKE WITH
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT AT TIMES. THE RISK FOR LOW-LEVEL WIND
SHEAR WILL END AS SURFACE WINDS INCREASE. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL AFTER 22Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL PREVAIL AT
BOTH TERMINALS INTO EARLY MONDAY AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF
THE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN MODERATE
TO OCCASIONAL RAIN...ISOLATED TSTMS...AND GRADUALLY LOWERING
CEILINGS WITH POSSIBLE FOG/MIST. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE BREEZY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE STILL
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...UNTIL A COLD FRONT PULLS FARTHER
OFFSHORE DURING MID WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WATERS
TODAY A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERHEAD AND A COASTAL FRONT
SHIFTS INLAND. MIXING WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED IN THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION REGIME GIVEN THE COLD SHELF WATERS IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD
LIMIT WINDS TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS
WERE WATER TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER-MID 70S PER LATEST MODIS
SST IMAGERY. THIS WILL SUPPORT MUCH DEEPER MIXING PROFILES WHICH A
RISK FOR FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35-40 KT GALES. PER COLLABORATION WITH
THE OCEAN PREDICTION CENTER...A GALE WARNING WILL BE POSTED FOR
THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND WILL BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 5-8
FT NEARSHORE WATERS...EXCEPT 6-10 FT CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND
7-12 FT OVER THE GEORGIA OFFSHORE WATERS.

TONIGHT...HAZARDOUS MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS
TONIGHT WITH THE AREA FIRMLY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR.
WINDS WILL DIMINISH SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE AXIS OF THE LOW-
LEVEL JET BEGINS TO MOVE OFF TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST...BUT BOTH
WINDS AND SEAS WILL LINGER WELL ABOVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS. SEAS WILL DIMINISH TO 4-8 FT NEARSHORE WATERS...HIGHEST
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WITH 7-9 FT OVER THE GEORGIA
OFFSHORE LEG.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES ON MONDAY WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS
BY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN FORM ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE MARINE AREA AND EVENTUALLY PULL THE FRONT AWAY
FROM THE REGION BY WEDNESDAY. ONGOING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
EXPECTED TO END MONDAY. HOWEVER...THE LOCATION AND MOVEMENT OF
THE DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COULD IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS
THROUGH MID WEEK AND MAY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT A LATER
TIME.

HIGH SURF...A HIGH SURF ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD RAPIDLY INTO THE 6-10 FT RANGE
TODAY...WITH THE HIGHEST SEAS OCCURRING OVER THE WATERS OFF
CHARLESTON COUNTY. SEAS AT BUOY 41004 ARE FORECAST TO RISE TO 12
FT...WHICH WILL YIELD BREAKING WAVE HEIGHTS OF 5-7 FT ALONG THE
LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG EAST AND SOUTHEAST
FACING BEACHES. BREAKERS OF 4-5 FT ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE NORTH
GEORGIA COAST...BUT THE ORIENTATION OF THE WAVE ENERGY WITH RESPECT
TO THE COAST SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR HIGH SURF WILL REMAIN
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
BEACHES OF CHARLESTON COUNTY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ANOMALOUSLY HIGH PWATS OF 1.75-2 INCHES COUPLED WITH INTENSE UPPER
DYNAMICS WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS WITH EMBEDDED TSTMS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DURING THE
PERIOD. STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH THE BULK OF THE HEAVIEST RAINS
FALLING THROUGH TONIGHT. THE RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL BE
MAINLY CONFINED TO THE COASTAL COUNTIES WHERE THE COMBINATION OF
HEAVY RAIN AND ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TIDES WILL SUPPORT A HIGHER RISK
FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
AND SAVANNAH METRO AREAS. HOWEVER...MORE LOCALIZED/URBAN FLOODING
WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS INLAND AREAS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD PRECIPITATION FOR 23 NOVEMBER...
KCHS...0.70 INCHES SET IN 1961.
KCXM...1.17 INCHES SET IN 1942.
KSAV...2.11 INCHES SET IN 1948.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EST MONDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$


ST/WMS





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