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000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300024
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT...THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO
THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THURSDAY EVENING...A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WAS ADVANCING
INTO INLAND COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. MOST LOCATIONS WILL NOT
RECEIVE MEASURABLE RAIN AS THESE SHOWERS PUSH INTO DRIER
AIR/TOWARD THE COAST...BUT AN EARLIER ONSET OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
IS JUSTIFIED. OTHERWISE...FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY ELEMENTS TONIGHT.

TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
THE COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT LATER TONIGHT. THE
MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM
RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON OF MOISTURE ALONG THE
CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT WITH THE SHORTWAVE.
THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A SMALL AREA OF CHANCE
POPS FOR THE TRI- COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL THAT OCCURS WILL BE
LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT
MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE TONIGHT AND INCREASED
SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ELEVATED.
LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S
CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MUCH OF THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CEILINGS AROUND THE TIME OF COLD FROPA DURING THE 06Z-12Z TIME
FRAME. ALSO...LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP FROM 03Z-06Z
UNTIL JUST AFTER 12Z...WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST
AND WILL GUST TO 20-25 KNOTS MUCH OF FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT S/SE
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS EARLY...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SW AND
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT. WINDS WILL
THEN SHIFT TO THE WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP UP IN
WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
EXPANDING THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL
CONTINUE TO GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25
KT WITHIN THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT
UP TO 4 FT IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...BSH/SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB/SPR
MARINE...BSH/RJB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A
SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP
UP IN WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPANDING
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 292103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN
TO THE REGION TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF ANOTHER
STORM SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL CONTINUE TO
DIVE SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TOWARD THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. AS IT DOES...THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO
THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE
TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WITH THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE
COVERAGE OF ANY SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT. THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
INCONSISTENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION...FROM NONE AT ALL TO
UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH FROM RUN TO RUN. THERE IS A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE CONVERGENCE WITH THE COLD FRONT AND PVA ALOFT
WITH THE SHORTWAVE. THERE IS ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO GO WITH
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA...AND EVEN A
SMALL AREA OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE TRI-COUNTY REGION. ANY RAINFALL
THAT OCCURS WILL BE LIGHT AND SHORTLIVED...WITH ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH AT MOST. SKIES WILL BECOME OVERCAST LATE
TONIGHT AND INCREASED SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES ELEVATED. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE MID 40S
INLAND AND UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE LATE
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY BEGINS AT MIDNIGHT AND RUNS THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WITH ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST ENDING QUICKLY NEAR
DAYBREAK. IT WILL BE A BIT BREEZY...ESPECIALLY IN THE MORNING. SOME
COLD AIR ADVECTION...ESPECIALLY OVER SC...WILL BE OFFSET SOMEWHAT BY
THE WARMING DOWNSLOPE NORTHWEST WINDS. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY HITTING 60...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
BEAUFORT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT MAKING FOR LIGHT WINDS AND GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING OTHER THAN
SOME HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT A COLD NIGHT WITH LOWS LIKELY DIPPING INTO
THE UPPER 20S INLAND AND FREEZING MOST OTHER PLACES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA WITH A DRY AND
COOL DAY ON TAP ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS AROUND.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE A BIT GIVEN THE COLD START LIKELY ONLY
REACHING THE MID 50S MOST PLACES...WITH LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE
SANTEE RIVER AND UPPER 50S POSSIBLE SOUTH OF I-16. A BIT MORE HIGH
CLOUDS EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND
RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WELL
TO THE WEST OVER TEXAS. COULD SEE SOME WEAK TROUGHING OFFSHORE BUT
STILL DRY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD BE IN THE MID/UPPER 30S INLAND BUT LOWER
TO MID 40S AT THE COAST.

SUNDAY...ANY COASTAL TROUGH EARLY WILL DISSIPATE DURING THE DAY AS
THE SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. BEST RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO COME LATER IN THE DAY...MAINLY WELL
INLAND AND POSSIBLY SKIRTING THE SC COAST. DESPITE INCREASING
CLOUDINESS TEMPS SHOULD PUSH TO NEAR NORMAL AROUND 60 IN THE
CHARLESTON AREA WITH MID 60S NEAR AND SOUTH OF SAVANNAH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TO PREVAIL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY WHEN MVFR OR POSSIBLY LOWER CONDS ARE POSSIBLE DUE TO A
PASSING COLD FRONT. BREEZY CONDS ALSO LIKELY SUN NIGHT/MON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND WILL
PUSH THROUGH LATE. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE TIGHTENING
GRADIENT...FIRST FROM THE SOUTHWEST...THEN EVENTUALLY OUT OF THE
WEST IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A QUICK RAMP
UP IN WIND SPEEDS STARTING AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. IN FACT...WINDS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EXPANDING
THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO INCLUDE ALL OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA WATERS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. WILL CONTINUE TO
GO WITH A START TIME OF MIDNIGHT THOUGH THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR LATER IN THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE 20-25 KT WITHIN
THE ADVISORY AREA...AND 15-20 KT FOR THE NEARSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE...EXCEPT UP TO 4 FT IN THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT TO
KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER THE SC AND OFFSHORE GA
WATERS THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
STEADILY BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO
THE WEEKEND. SLIGHT NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE EXPECTED SATURDAY
NIGHT BEFORE WINDS DIMINISH DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...WITH
CONDITIONS LIKELY REMAINING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...ALTHOUGH A
MARGINAL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED OVER THE CHARLESTON NEARSHORE
WATERS AND OFFSHORE GA WATERS.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY...WITH ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE REGION
MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT...AS
WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE WILL LIKELY CREATE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN TUESDAY WILL
THEN LEAD TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ330-350-352-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/RJB
MARINE...BSH/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. HIGH CLOUDS HAVE INCREASED AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING MID/UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S AND ANY ADDITIONAL
WARMING SHOULD BE LIMITED THANKS TO THE INCREASING CLOUDS.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE REST OF
THE DAY AND INTO MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AND BRING WITH IT A NARROW RIBBON
OF MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUDS. GUIDANCE HINTS AT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR A SMALL TIME WINDOW WITHIN WHICH CEILINGS COULD
LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE. ANY CEILING REDUCTIONS THAT DO OCCUR
WILL BE SHORTLIVED AND WILL LIKELY BE BEST HANDLED WITH TEMPO
GROUPS CLOSER TO THE TIME. AS A RESULT THE FORECAST HAS BEEN KEPT
VFR THROUGHOUT. THERE WILL ALSO BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN AT KCHS. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO DEVELOP ARE EXPECTED TO BE WEAK ENOUGH TO NOT PRODUCE ANY
VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY MORNING AND WILL BE GUSTY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS
APPEAR BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291602
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1102 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY. HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SLIP OFF THE COAST. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE. TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN INTO THE UPPER 40S AND LOW 50S IN MOST LOCATIONS...AND
FORECAST HIGHS STILL LOOK ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT
SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS
APPEAR BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH/DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291213
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
713 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY AND LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION TUESDAY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS EARLIER...BUT SHOULD WARM UP
QUICKLY ONCE A VERY SHALLOW INVERSION IS BROKEN WITH DAYTIME
HEATING. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE AREA WILL
THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE ADVECTING TO THE
REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL FORCING
EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. A PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA WITH A FEW SHOWERS. CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS APPEAR
BEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
433 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...TEMPS WILL START OFF CHILLY THIS MORNING FROM A FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER
THE AREA WILL THEN SLOWLY SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE...A SOUTHWEST WIND WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE AREA WITH ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE
ADVECTING TO THE REGION. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW/MID LVL
FORCING EARLY...RAINFREE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
EVENING. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS IN COMBINATION WITH MID LVL RIDGING
EXPANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY WARM INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S IN NORTHERN AREAS TO AROUND
60 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CIRRUS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER HEATING
POTENTIAL LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING AS THE NOSE OF A H25
JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA.

TONIGHT...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST LATE
EVENING...BUT CLOUD COVER WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE ALOFT. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT ADVANCES
THROUGH THE AREA LATE...WITH BEST CHANCES OF MEASURABLE PRECIP
EXPECTED IN NORTHERN AREAS. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL REMAIN MUCH MORE
MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER CLOUD
COVER. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 40S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST...THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A PASSING
COLD FRONT LATE TONIGHT. WIND SPEEDS WILL ALSO INCREASE BEHIND
THE FRONT...WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND
ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH QUICKLY FOLLOWING IN
ITS WAKE. ANY RAIN LINGERING ALONG THE COASTLINE DURING THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WILL RETREAT FARTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AS THE
MORNING PROGRESSES. COLD AND DRY SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING
CLEARING SKIES AND RAIN CHANCES FALLING TO ZERO. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL ONLY BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...AS
COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT IS MITIGATED BY THE WARMING
EFFECTS OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND INCREASING SUNSHINE. EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE UPPER 50S...SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER REFLECT THE COOLER AIR MASS
IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS WINDS DIMINISH AND SUPPORT DECENT
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BELOW FREEZING MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE COASTLINE AND CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...AS THE SURFACE HIGH STEADILY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE EAST
COAST...LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER MORE NORTH/NORTHEAST. THE LOSS
OF THE MORE SOLID DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...RANGING FROM THE LOW 50S NORTH TO THE
UPPER 50S SOUTH. SOME MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY
INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WHILE RAIN CHANCES REMAIN AT ZERO. THE INSULATING EFFECTS
OF THICKENING SKY COVER WILL SUPPORT TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...MID 30S FAR INLAND TO LOW 40S EAST AND
SOUTH.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE SLIPPED OFF THE COASTLINE BY THE
MORNING TIME FRAME...WITH THE PATTERN RAPIDLY TRANSITIONING AND
BECOMING MORE UNSETTLED THROUGH THE DAY. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE
STILL INDICATING A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH BRIEFLY DEVELOPING ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COASTLINE IN THE MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH THEN
QUICKLY MOVES INLAND AND TRANSITIONS INTO MORE OF A WARM FRONTAL
FEATURE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH AHEAD OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...THE FORECAST AREA WILL LIKELY FALL WITHIN A PRECIPITATION
GAP BETWEEN THE LIFTING COASTAL TROUGH/WARM FRONT AND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST. WILL THUS CAP RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 30 PERCENT UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL SUPPORT WARMER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...PEAKING
IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THERE REMAINS SOME DIFFERENCES
IN MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS REGARDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT...AS WELL AS THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
HELPING TO DRIVE ITS DEVELOPMENT. A BLENDED SOLUTION WILL SHOW THE
LOW SYSTEM DEEPENING ALONG THE VIRGINIA/CAROLINA COASTLINE BY
MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE TRAILING COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST BY EARLY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE SHORTWAVE WILL FOLLOW THE
SURFACE FRONT QUICKLY OFFSHORE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING
HOURS...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST/NORTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT. WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE THE
HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...COINCIDENT
WITH TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. HAVE REMAINED SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE WITH ACTUAL POPS...CAPPING RAIN CHANCES AT 50 PERCENT
OR LESS...DUE TO SOME HINTS IN BOTH ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS OF A
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION MINIMUM OVER THE AREA. RAIN CHANCES WILL
DECREASE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON MONDAY...FALLING BELOW 10
PERCENT BY MONDAY EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN TEMPORARY
AGREEMENT THAT THE MAJORITY OF THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUESDAY WILL
BE DRY...AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
AND QUICKLY PROGRESSES TOWARD THE COASTLINE. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
THEN SERIOUSLY DIVERGE REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE
IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE TUESDAY INTO MID WEEK. THE DIFFERENCES
ARE NOT SUBTLE...WITH THE MORE AGGRESSIVE ECMWF SOLUTIONS DEPICTING
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND BRINGING
NOTABLE RAINFALL TO THE AREA FOR EARLY TO MID WEEK. THE WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE IS CONSIDERABLY DELAYED AND MORE SUBTLE IN THE
GFS...LEAVING LITTLE OPPORTUNITY TO REASONABLY BLEND THE TWO
SOLUTIONS. PREFER TO MAINTAIN SOME PERSISTENCE...AND WILL JUST
INDICATE SLIGHT TO LOW RAIN CHANCES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY WEATHER POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES EACH AFTERNOON WILL BE JUST A FEW DEGREES BELOW
SEASONAL NORMALS. LOW TEMPERATURES COULD ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR
A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE OVER THE WATERS AS IT SLOWLY
SHIFTS OFFSHORE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WELL IN ADVANCE OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. EXPECT WINDS/SEAS
TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BECOME
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...BUT WILL LIKELY REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS.

TONIGHT...THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BEHIND IT. WINDS WILL QUICKLY BECOME
WEST/NORTHWEST POST FROPA AND INCREASE AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS OVER
THE WATERS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED STARTING AT
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT FOR NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. AT THIS TIME...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS FOR REMAINING WATERS...BUT A LOW CHANCE OF WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS REMAINS FOR WATERS BEYOND 10 NM INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WILL MAINTAIN ENOUGH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT
TO KEEP SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN STEADILY
BUILD INTO THE REGION AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
WEEKEND. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE ELEVATED THROUGH
SATURDAY...YET LIKELY REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STRENGTHENING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY...WITH ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES MONDAY AFTERNOON. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST FLOW IN ITS WAKE...COULD SUPPORT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES
BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY
     FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290616
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO MATCH
CURRENT DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHT RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A H5 JET...TEMPS WILL ALREADY
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOW TO MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
OVER WARMER WATERS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT IN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290616
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE TODAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT AND WILL
BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A ANOTHER COLD FRONT
PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN TO THE
REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AS SKIES REMAIN CLEAR AND WINDS ARE CALM. HAVE MADE
ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OVERNIGHT LOW TEMP POTENTIAL TO MATCH
CURRENT DEWPT TRENDS OVER THE AREA. OTHERWISE...EXPECT DRY AND COLD
CONDITIONS AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA AND
SLIGHT RIDGING OCCURS ALOFT. ALTHOUGH WE COULD SEE SOME CIRRUS
ARRIVE LATER TONIGHT ALONG THE NOSE OF A H5 JET...TEMPS WILL ALREADY
HAVE BOTTOMED OUT IN THE MID 20S OVER INLAND AREAS...AND LOW TO MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z FRIDAY. HOWEVER...EXPECT INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SETTLED JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST...RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS
MAINLY AT OR BELOW 15 KTS. WE COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS
OVER WARMER WATERS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS AND BEYOND 15 NM IN
NORTHERN SC WATERS. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT IN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN LATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TO PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
20S AWAY FROM THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ONGOING FORECAST
WAS IN A GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE AND MID LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SLIDES EAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA. BESIDES A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS THAT MAY MOVE IN LATE...SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH LIGHT/NEARLY CALM WINDS TO PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN A
QUICK DROP IN TEMPERATURES AND LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE MID/UPPER
20S AWAY FROM THE COAST STILL LOOK REASONABLE. ONGOING FORECAST
WAS IN A GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
LATEST TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE
VALID TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
I MADE AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. 18Z GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
MEANINGFUL CIRRUS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
624 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
I MADE AN EARLY EVENING UPDATE TO LOWER TEMPS A BIT OVERNIGHT IN
THE GRIDS. 18Z GUIDANCE TRENDED LOWER...AND IT LOOKS LIKE ANY
MEANINGFUL CIRRUS WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL AFTER DAYBREAK. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...DPB/WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...BSH/JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THEN SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN A LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND
FIELDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282115
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN TO THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST AND
OVER THE REGION. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES.

CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT THEN SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO SPILL OVER THE APPROACHING RIDGE AXIS
RESULTING IN A LATE NIGHT INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS. LIGHT WIND
FIELDS AND CLEAR SKIES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE NIGHT WILL RESULT
IN EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO PLUMMET INTO THE MID AND UPPER 20S FOR LOWS AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT WILL QUICKLY TRANSLATE EASTWARD THURSDAY MORNING AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH ADVANCING INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THIS SHORTWAVE
WILL THEN CROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND
MOVE INTO THE LEE OF THE MOUNTAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL START
THE DAY CENTERED ALONG MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS AND WILL STEADILY
SLIP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON BETWEEN THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST AND THE
HIGH TO THE SOUTHEAST. THURSDAY WILL GENERALLY BRING QUIET WEATHER
WITH JUST INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS. THE FORECAST IS RAIN FREE AND THE
HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 IN MOST AREAS. THE COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. AS IT
DOES...THERE IS A BIT OF MOISTURE RETURN NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS
AND TIME HEIGHTS...COINCIDENT WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND
PVA ALOFT. THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT WETTER FOR LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND IT SEEMS REASONABLE THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH COVERAGE
OF SHOWERS TO WARRANT A SLIGHT CHANCE POP. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL BE LIGHT AND ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH WOULD BE
EXPECTED. LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 40S.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE FOLLOWED BY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH WELL OFFSHORE FRIDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE OVER OR NEAR
THE AREA ON SATURDAY. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT QUICKLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE FRONT DEPARTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE IS EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY MORNING IN THE WAKE
OF THE FRONT AS MIXING BEGINS. GUSTY CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE GRADIENT RELAXES. MUCH OF
THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE NEGATED BY DOWNSLOPE
FLOW THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING HIGHS TO STILL REACH THE MID/UPPER
50S. FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE CHILLY WITH LOWS AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING
FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SATURDAY WILL BRING HIGHS LOW TO MID
50S...OR ABOUT 6-8 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

LAKE WINDS...WINDS WILL TURN WEST AND THEN NORTHWEST BEHIND A
PASSING COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WIND
SPEEDS WILL INCREASE AND FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
TERMINALS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE FOR A
PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE JUST INLAND FROM THE COAST...
RESULTING IN A NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WITH WIND SPEEDS LESS THAN 15
KT. SEAS OF 2-3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL SUBSIDE BY A FOOT OR SO AS THE NIGHT PROGRESSES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OUT OVER THE
ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH SATURDAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE STEADILY. IN FACT...IT LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST SOME OF THE WATERS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THEREAFTER...WINDS WILL
BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN AND REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE
AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA
MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS
POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE
MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...JAQ/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST
SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 PM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE
MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST
SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE
COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL
CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE
UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI- COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH WINDS WILL GUST
AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS 25 KTS IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON.
WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...JAQ/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281447
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REFLECT LATEST TRENDS...OTHERWISE NO
SIGNFICANT CHANGES NEEDED LATE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH
AND NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH
SLIGHT MID LVL RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE
MID/UPPER TROUGH SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
FROM THE NORTH WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281212
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
712 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMP TRENDS DURING LATE MORNING HOURS.

TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURRING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH WILL
CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW 50S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET. IN
GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID
30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN A PERIOD OF ENHANCED
WINDS OVER WATERS THROUGH LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. NORTH
WINDS WILL GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...WITH A FEW GUSTS AS HIGH AS
25 KTS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE
AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN CONTINUE TO DECREASE/SUBSIDE
TONIGHT AND REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL
COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABROAD WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER THE
AREA. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY AND
CONTINUE OFFSHORE BY THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
ITS WAKE THROUGH SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY
SUNDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT PASSING OVER THE
AREA MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST AS ITS CENTER SLIDES EASTWARD FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. ALOFT...A LARGE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST SEABOARD...WITH SLIGHT MID LVL
RIDGING OCCURING LATE. THE COMBINATION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
SHIFTING OFFSHORE AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTH
WILL CREATE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS REMAINING BELOW NORMAL. IN GENERAL...EXPECT
MAX TEMPS ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA TO LOW
50S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE AREA AS IT BECOMES
CENTERED ALONG THE EAST COAST. STRONGER WIND FIELDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE...ALLOWING
ANY CIRRUS THAT MAY HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON
TO SHIFT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A H25 JET MAXIMA. STRONG
RADIATIONAL COOLING IS THEREFORE EXPECTED UNDER CLEAR SKIES EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH WINDS DECOUPLING JUST AN HOUR OR TWO AFTER SUNSET.
IN GENERAL...TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO
LOW/MID 30S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...TRANSIENT UPPER RIDGING WILL TRACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
AND MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY IN THE DAY...BEFORE A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SLIPS FROM THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
AND CAROLINAS OVERNIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FOUND DIRECTLY OVER
THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING HOURS WILL THUS SHIFT OFF THE
COAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SHORTWAVE ENERGY. SURFACE FLOW WILL
GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...SUPPORTING SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S NORTH
TO THE LOW 60S SOUTH. THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY WITH THE
APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AND SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS NOT EXPECTED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE. WILL
CONTINUE TO INDICATE JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT
AND DAYBREAK FRIDAY MORNING. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTABLY MILDER
THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...RANGING FROM THE LOW TO MID 40S WITHIN
WARM SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND UNDER INSULATING THICK
CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...THE AXIS OF THE UPPER SHORTWAVE AND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE
RAPIDLY MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL BRING AN END TO RAIN CHANCES. COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE MITIGATED BY THE WARMING EFFECTS
OF DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...THUS EXPECT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO STILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 50S NORTH TO AROUND 60
DEGREES SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BETTER
REFLECT A COLDER AIR MASS IN PLACE...ESPECIALLY AS LIGHT NOCTURNAL
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SUPPORT RADIATIONAL COOLING.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S NORTHWEST ZONES TO THE UPPER
30S SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL HAVE STEADILY BUILT INTO THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES BY THE START OF THE WEEKEND. COOL
AND DRY NORTHEAST FLOW WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW 50S CHARLESTON TRI COUNTY TO UPPER 50S
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL STEADILY SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY SUNDAY. HAVE INTRODUCED RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO
THE FORECAST BY SUNDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INTRUSION OF SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE FROM THE COASTAL TROUGH THAT
WILL BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SHORELINE. A NEGATIVELY TILTING UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE RAPIDLY MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES MIDDAY
SUNDAY TOWARD THE APPALACHIAN REGION EARLY MONDAY...SUPPORTING THE
STEADY PROGRESSION OF A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
TRAILING COLD FRONT TOWARD THE EAST COAST. THE COASTAL TROUGH ON
SUNDAY WILL TRANSITION INTO A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH AHEAD OF THE
SYSTEM SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH RAIN CHANCES INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. HAVE
INDICATED HIGHEST POPS OF THE PERIOD FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...HOWEVER
NUMERICAL MODELS COULD SPEED UP OR SLOW DOWN FRONTAL PROGRESSION
THIS FAR IN ADVANCE...POSSIBLY SHIFTING THE WINDOW OF BEST RAIN
COVERAGE ACCORDINGLY.

MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THE INTENSIFYING SURFACE LOW
WILL LIFT OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON AND PULL THE
COLD FRONT OFF THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY EVENING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL INTRODUCE A PERIOD
OF DRY WEATHER LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. MODELS THEN DIVERGE
REGARDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND MONDAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO THE LOW/MID 60S SOUTH. COOLER THAN
NORMALS HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY PEAKING IN THE 50S.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN TO
AFFECT THE TERMINALS WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...RESULTING IN SOME ENHANCED WINDS
OVER WATERS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...NORTH WINDS SHOULD
GUST AS HIGH AS 15-20 KTS...MAINLY BEYOND 10 NM FROM THE
COAST...BEFORE SLOWLY IMPROVING LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS/SEAS WILL THEN
REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED ALONG THE EASTERN SEABROAD
WITH A MUCH WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT DIRECTLY OVER COASTAL WATERS.
IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST THURSDAY AND SUPPORT INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 15
KT WITH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT...BEFORE PASSING OFFSHORE EARLY FRIDAY.
WINDS WILL STEADILY VEER TO THE NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT ON
FRIDAY...HOWEVER THE PRESSURE GRADIENT DOES NOT TIGHTEN
SIGNFICANTLY...AND WINDS/SEAS APPEAR TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA. THE SURFACE HIGH WILL STEADILY TRACK OFFSHORE AND
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPING AND MOVING ONSHORE SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT TRAILING
FROM THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES BY MONDAY...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER PORTIONS OF THE MARINE ZONES AS A RESULT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...WMS
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280640
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT...THEN MIGRATE ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A COASTAL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM
SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS
TONIGHT AS IT BUILDS FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. HAVE MADE SLIGHT
ADJUSTMENTS INITIALLY TO TEMPERATURES INLAND...SINCE A 5-10 MPH
WIND WILL KEEP TEMPS FROM COOLING OFF QUICKLY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
EVENTUALLY DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOW/MID 30S CLOSER TO
THE COAST BEFORE DAYBREAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z THURSDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE LATEST FORECAST OVERNIGHT. WE
COULD SEE A SLIGHT SURGE OF WINDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS
A FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH THROUGH...BUT WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD FALL
JUST SHORT OF REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/FWA





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES THIS EVENING WERE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS AS THE CLEAR SKIES
AND THE QUICK DROP OF WINDS HAVE ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO COOL QUITE
QUICKLY. AT 9:15 PM...TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 30 AT GEORGETOWN AND
34 AT WALTERBORO. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FORECAST LOOK GOOD AS LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTATE
MOUNTAINS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES
DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES SINCE THE 7 PM UPDATE. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN NOTICABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT GRAYS REEF...AND EVEN A LITTLE AT THE
40 MILE BUOY. CANT RULE OUT A SURGE BACK UP A FEW KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AS FINAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT FEELING IS STILL THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...IF ONLY JUST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...FWA





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES THIS EVENING WERE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS AS THE CLEAR SKIES
AND THE QUICK DROP OF WINDS HAVE ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO COOL QUITE
QUICKLY. AT 9:15 PM...TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 30 AT GEORGETOWN AND
34 AT WALTERBORO. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FORECAST LOOK GOOD AS LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTATE
MOUNTAINS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES
DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES SINCE THE 7 PM UPDATE. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN NOTICABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT GRAYS REEF...AND EVEN A LITTLE AT THE
40 MILE BUOY. CANT RULE OUT A SURGE BACK UP A FEW KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AS FINAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT FEELING IS STILL THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...IF ONLY JUST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...FWA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES THIS EVENING WERE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS AS THE CLEAR SKIES
AND THE QUICK DROP OF WINDS HAVE ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO COOL QUITE
QUICKLY. AT 9:15 PM...TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 30 AT GEORGETOWN AND
34 AT WALTERBORO. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FORECAST LOOK GOOD AS LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTATE
MOUNTAINS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES
DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES SINCE THE 7 PM UPDATE. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN NOTICABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT GRAYS REEF...AND EVEN A LITTLE AT THE
40 MILE BUOY. CANT RULE OUT A SURGE BACK UP A FEW KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AS FINAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT FEELING IS STILL THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...IF ONLY JUST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...FWA




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ONLY CHANGES THIS EVENING WERE TO MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO THE
EVENING HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TRENDS AS THE CLEAR SKIES
AND THE QUICK DROP OF WINDS HAVE ALLOWED CONDITIONS TO COOL QUITE
QUICKLY. AT 9:15 PM...TEMPS ALREADY DOWN TO 30 AT GEORGETOWN AND
34 AT WALTERBORO. OTHERWISE...CLOUD FORECAST LOOK GOOD AS LOW
LEVEL DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD PREVENT ANY CLOUDS FROM THE UPSTATE
MOUNTAINS FROM MAKING IT INTO THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES
DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES SINCE THE 7 PM UPDATE. WINDS HAVE COME DOWN NOTICABLY
OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS AT GRAYS REEF...AND EVEN A LITTLE AT THE
40 MILE BUOY. CANT RULE OUT A SURGE BACK UP A FEW KNOTS LATE
TONIGHT AS FINAL FRONT PUSHES THROUGH...BUT FEELING IS STILL THAT
THE WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA...IF ONLY JUST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...FWA
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...FWA





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280008
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
700 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 700 PM TUESDAY...JUST A TWEAK TO THE SKY GRIDS AS CLOUDS HAVE
CLEARED A BIT MORE QUICKLY THAN FORECAST...LIKELY DUE TO THEIR
CONVECTIVE NATURE AND DAYTIME HEATING NOW OVER WITH. NO ADJUSTMENTS
TO TEMPS AS A LIGHT NNW WIND OF A FEW MPH TO PREVENT IDEAL RAD
COOLING...WHICH MOS NUMBERS USUALLY STRUGGLE WITH. ASSUMING NO RAD
COOLING GUIDANCE PROBABLY SERVING THE FORECAST WELL.

AS OF 300 PM...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WE STILL CAN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT OVER GA/SC
RELAXES. AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM
MOS NUMBERS AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. EVEN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S. PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW
SHOWERS DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST. VFR AND NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED AT KSAV AND KCHS OVERNIGHT. AFTER SUNRISE...SUNNY SKIES
DESPITE INCREASING CIRRUS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KTS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.


&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 7 PM TUESDAY...
THROUGH TONIGHT...LOWERED SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY QUITE A BIT EARLIER
THAN ANTICIPATED. WINDS STILL BEHAVING PER SE BUT THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORY HAS REALLY ALLOWED THE LARGER SEAS TO MOVE WELL AWAY FROM
SHORE. GRAYS REEF DOWN TO 3.5 FT AND EDISTO 4.5 FT. THE ABATING
TREND WILL BE MORE PRONOUNCED ESP ACROSS AMZ370 BETWEEN NOW AND 06Z.
NO OTHER CHANGES FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...MBB
SHORT TERM...JDW
AVIATION...MRR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WE STILL CAN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT OVER GA/SC
RELAXES. AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM
MOS NUMBERS AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. EVEN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S. PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE GA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. IN THE
0-20 NM NEARSHORE ZONES...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
SUBSIDE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GENERALLY 3-4 FT BECOMING 2-3 FT
TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN OVER THE
WATERS...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...










000
FXUS62 KCHS 272007
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
307 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST
TONIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MIGRATE ACROSS
THE CAROLINAS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES INTO THE WEEKEND. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH
AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WE STILL CAN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS
AROUND 10-15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH FOR THE REST OF TODAY...BUT
WINDS WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT OVER GA/SC
RELAXES. AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES
TO LIFT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER WILL DIMINISH WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. THERE IS VERY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE GFS/NAM
MOS NUMBERS AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING...UPPER 20S
TO LOWER 30S...AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES. EVEN THE
COASTAL ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 30S. PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS
THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 300 PM TUESDAY...LAST PIECE OF ENERGY EMBEDDED WITHIN A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES ON
WEDNESDAY...ACCOMPANIED BY COLD ADVECTION...AND WHILE WINDS WILL BE
DECREASING THROUGH THE DAY A CHILLY BUT SUNNY DAY IS IN STORE. 925MB
TEMPS FALL TO AROUND -2C THROUGH THE EVENING...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
BE THE DEPTH OF THE SHALLOW MIXED LAYER...AND THIS SUPPORTS HIGHS
RANGING FROM JUST THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
COUNTIES...TO THE LOWER 50S IN THE GEORGIA ZONES. THIS SURFACE HIGH
WILL MOVE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH
THE SHUT OFF OF COLD ADVECTION AS SHORTWAVE RIDGING DEVELOPS
OVERHEAD...WILL LEAD TO A VERY GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING NIGHT.
ALTHOUGH A BIT OF MOISTURE INCREASES ABOVE 700MB...DEWPOINT
DEPRESSIONS REMAIN GREATER THAN 10C AND THUS NO REDUCTION IN
LONGWAVE COOLING IS EXPECTED. THEREFORE...EXPECT MINS BY DAWN
THURSDAY TO BE A SOLID 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...WITH UPPER 20S
INLAND AND LOW 30S NEAR THE BEACHES.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL PERSIST THE FIRST HALF OF
THURSDAY...BUT THE MID LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS A VERY SHORT WAVELENGTH
AS ANOTHER VORTICITY IMPULSE DROPS ACROSS THE EAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL QUICKLY DRIVE THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OFFSHORE...AND A
BRIEF PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW WILL HELP DRIVE HIGHS THURSDAY TO MORE
SEASONABLE VALUES IN THE UPPER 50S...LOW 60S TOWARDS SAVANNAH. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT
WITH A RETURN TO COOL ADVECTION AND NW FLOW. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
A LITTLE LIGHT PRECIP WILL ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT. HOWEVER...THE
STRONGEST THETA-E RIDGING REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA...WHILE THE
BEST FORCING STAYS JUST TO THE NORTH. SREF PROBABILITIES PEAK AT
20-30 PERCENT THURSDAY NIGHT...NOT A SIGNAL TYPICALLY ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS. HAVE INHERITED VERY LOW-SCHC POP AND WILL LEAVE THIS
UNCHANGED...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL BE DRY THURSDAY NIGHT. MINS
WILL BE ELEVATED THURSDAY NIGHT AS COLD ADVECTION ONLY BEGINS VERY
LATE...AND EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE FROM ABOUT 42 WELL NW...TO AROUND 50
AT THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRIDAY...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE AREA BEHIND
THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN MAX
TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE GA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. EXPECT 4-6 FT SEAS IN THE ADVISORY
AREA WITH NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KT AND GUSTS UP TO 25 KT. IN THE
0-20 NM NEARSHORE ZONES...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. CONTINUED OFFSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW SEAS TO
SUBSIDE IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...GENERALLY 3-4 FT BECOMING 2-3 FT
TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST
OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN TIGHTEN OVER THE
WATERS...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH HIGHER
GUSTS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL START THE PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DOWN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BE 15-20 KTS EARLY...BUT WILL EASE AND VEER TO THE NE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WHEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE WILL DRIFT OFFSHORE EARLY THURSDAY...CREATING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RETURN FLOW AND SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 10 KTS OR LESS DURING
THE DAY. THURSDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW
CAUSING WINDS TO RISE TO 15-20 KTS FROM THE SW...BEFORE ABRUPTLY
TURNING TO THE NW LATE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. SEAS INITIALLY WILL
BE 3-4 FT ON THE GUSTY NW WINDS...WITH A FEW 5 FT WAVES STILL
EXPECTED IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THESE WILL FALL TO 1-3 FT
EVERYWHERE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DURING THURSDAY...BEFORE RISING
AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT.

A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON
SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE
WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE
TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING
COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY
NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR
SHORT TERM...JDW
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...











000
FXUS62 KCHS 271820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE
ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN
LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS BUMPING DOWN THE WINDS AND GUSTS A BIT BASED ON THE
LATEST SURFACE OBS. WE STILL CAN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT OVER GA/SC RELAXES. HIGHS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY...HIGHEST
OVER THE EASTERN GA COUNTIES. AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM MOS NUMBERS AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. EVEN THE COASTAL ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
30S. ADDITIONALLY...PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE SEAS AT
BUOY 41008 HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 3 FT...AND BUOY 41004 IS ONLY
REPORTING 4-5 FT SEAS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALSO FALLEN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY REMAINING MARINE HEADLINE
ATTM IS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...AND 25 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS. PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE...GENERALLY
3-4 FT TODAY BECOMING 2-3 FT TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...43
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 271820
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
120 PM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE DOWN INTO THE AREA FROM
THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE
ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN
LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE
REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 115 PM...MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM OVERHEAD THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
BROAD AND DEEP UPPER TROUGH. THE MOST NOTABLE CHANGE WITH THIS
UPDATE WAS BUMPING DOWN THE WINDS AND GUSTS A BIT BASED ON THE
LATEST SURFACE OBS. WE STILL CAN EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10-15
MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT WINDS WILL QUICKLY
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS THE GRADIENT OVER GA/SC RELAXES. HIGHS
ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MID 50S TODAY...HIGHEST
OVER THE EASTERN GA COUNTIES. AS STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW
ENGLAND COAST CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHWARD...CLOUD COVER WILL
DIMINISH WITH CLEAR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AFTER MIDNIGHT. CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING DOWN THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP
MAINTAIN N-NW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION OVERNIGHT. VERY GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM MOS NUMBERS AS LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
BELOW FREEZING...UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S...AT MOST LOCATIONS AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES. EVEN THE COASTAL ZONES WILL FALL INTO THE MID
30S. ADDITIONALLY...PERSISTENT NORTH WINDS THROUGH DAYBREAK WILL
CREATE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 20S EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
NEARSHORE MARINE ZONES HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. THE SEAS AT
BUOY 41008 HAVE SUBSIDED TO AROUND 3 FT...AND BUOY 41004 IS ONLY
REPORTING 4-5 FT SEAS AT THIS TIME. WIND GUSTS HAVE ALSO FALLEN
BELOW SCA CRITERIA. THEREFORE...THE ONLY REMAINING MARINE HEADLINE
ATTM IS THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE GA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...EXPECT NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT...AND 25 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS. PERSISTENT
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW SEAS TO SUBSIDE...GENERALLY
3-4 FT TODAY BECOMING 2-3 FT TONIGHT. AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES DOWN
FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT...THE GRADIENT WILL ONCE AGAIN
TIGHTEN OVER THE WATERS...MAINTAINING NORTHERLY FLOW 15-20 KT WITH
HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY OVER THE OUTER WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BJR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...43
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271645
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1144 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TWEAKED HIGHS BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND MORE SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CWA REMAINS POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE WELL
BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR
THE INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1030 AM...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE HARBOR INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE COME
DOWN TO 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41004...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
KT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM FOR THESE MARINE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE
MORNING AND MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE
RELAXED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND
BY 1 PM FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...43
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271645
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1144 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TWEAKED HIGHS BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND MORE SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CWA REMAINS POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE WELL
BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR
THE INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL SLOWLY PULL
AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. NORTH NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE
OBSERVED OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...ALONG WITH SCATTERED
MAINLY MID CLOUD. WINDS DIMINISH FOR DIURNAL REASONS THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH FALLING DEWPOINTS AND WEAK COLD AIR
ADVECTION...DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG FORMATION. WEDNESDAY...SUNNY SKIES
WITH WITH A MODERATE NORTHERLY WIND.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1030 AM...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE HARBOR INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE COME
DOWN TO 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41004...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
KT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM FOR THESE MARINE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE
MORNING AND MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE
RELAXED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND
BY 1 PM FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...43
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TWEAKED HIGHS BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND MORE SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CWA REMAINS POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE WELL
BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR
THE INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...RESULTING IN GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT AT
KSAV. GUSTS AT KCHS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ENERGY ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1030 AM...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE HARBOR INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE COME
DOWN TO 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41004...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
KT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM FOR THESE MARINE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE
MORNING AND MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE
RELAXED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND
BY 1 PM FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1031 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1030 AM...HAVE ADJUSTED SKY GRIDS AND TWEAKED HIGHS BASED ON
THE LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUD COVER LINGERS
OVER THE WESTERN ZONES...AND MORE SCT/BKN MID-LEVEL CLOUDS CAN BE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS THE CWA REMAINS POSITIONED UNDERNEATH A
LARGE UPPER TROUGH. STILL LOOKING FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE LOW TO
MID 50S TODAY...WARMEST ACROSS THE EASTERN GEORGIA COUNTIES. BASED
ON THE LATEST SURFACE OBS...THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY FOR LAKE
MOULTRIE WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SUSTAINED WINDS ARE WELL
BELOW THE 20 KT THRESHOLD.

RELEVANT PORTIONS OF PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR
THE INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...RESULTING IN GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT AT
KSAV. GUSTS AT KCHS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ENERGY ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1030 AM...WILL ALLOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR CHARLESTON
HARBOR TO EXPIRE AT 11 AM AS OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE HARBOR INDICATE
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS. WAVE HEIGHTS HAVE COME
DOWN TO 5-6 FT AT BUOY 41004...BUT STILL SEEING SOME GUSTS NEAR 25
KT WITHIN THE COASTAL WATERS. THEREFORE...WILL ALLOW THE SCA TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 1 PM FOR THESE MARINE ZONES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS FOLLOWS...
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE
MORNING AND MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE
RELAXED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND
BY 1 PM FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 271218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

LAKE WINDS...THERE IS STILL OPTIMAL MIXING ON LAKE MOULTRIE TO
MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL LATE MORNING. AT THAT TIME THE
COLD ADVECTION FADES AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES COME TO AN END
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...RESULTING IN GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT AT
KSAV. GUSTS AT KCHS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ENERGY ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND ALL COASTAL WATERS.

FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE
MORNING AND MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE
RELAXED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND
BY 1 PM FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

LAKE WINDS...THERE IS STILL OPTIMAL MIXING ON LAKE MOULTRIE TO
MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL LATE MORNING. AT THAT TIME THE
COLD ADVECTION FADES AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES COME TO AN END
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WILL OCCUR DURING THE LATE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. A LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE ENHANCED ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...RESULTING IN GUSTS UPWARDS OF 20-25 KT AT
KSAV. GUSTS AT KCHS SHOULD BE IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 4-6K FT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN
CONJUNCTION WITH ENERGY ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND ALL COASTAL WATERS.

FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE
MORNING AND MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE
RELAXED AND A SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR
SOME IMPROVEMENT IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND
BY 1 PM FOR THE 0-20 NM WATERS.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270854
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

LAKE WINDS...THERE IS STILL OPTIMAL MIXING ON LAKE MOULTRIE TO
MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL LATE MORNING. AT THAT TIME THE
COLD ADVECTION FADES AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES COME TO AN END
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET TUESDAY...AND
STRONGEST AT KSAV DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT DEPICTED IN THE 06Z TAFS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ENERGY ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A PINCHED CYCLONIC GRADIENT PREVAILS AROUND
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THAT ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE MIXING WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION...WILL HOLD WEST AND
NW WINDS UP AS HIGH AS 20-30 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS...AND 25-35 KT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS. AS A RESULT WE STILL
HAVE A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ374 UNTIL 7 AM...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE MORNING AND
MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE RELAXED AND A
SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND BY 1 PM FOR
THE 0-20 NM WATERS. ONCE THE GALES COME DOWN ON THE OUTER GA WATERS
IT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270854
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP BY LATE WEEKEND...THEN LIFT NORTH AHEAD OF A
STORM SYSTEM THAT PASSES OVER THE AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD OVER THE REGION INTO NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE POWERFUL SURFACE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF
LONG ISLAND AT DAYBREAK WILL OCCLUDE AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD THROUGH
THE DAY. IN WAKE OF THIS PRONOUNCED SYSTEM WE FIND DIGGING SHORT
WAVES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE SE...WHICH MAINTAINS THE
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE LONG WAVE TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE
ATLANTIC SEABOARD. ONE OF THESE MID LEVEL IMPULSES WILL ARRIVE
DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM THE NW AND WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED NEAR THE
INVERSION AROUND 4-6K FT IT WILL RESULT IN THE FORMATION OF
SCATTERED TO PERHAPS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS.

WE START OFF WITH CLOUDS SURROUNDING THE CWFA...BUT LATEST CONSENSUS
IS FOR THE CLOUDS SEEN ON SATELLITE IN NORTHERN GA TO ADVECT IN FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. WE/LL BEGIN THE DAY SUNNY...BUT
SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO PERHAPS EVEN MOSTLY CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS
AFTERNOON AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY COINCIDES WITH THE PASSAGE OF A
REINFORCING BUT FAIRLY NEBULOUS COLD FRONT. THE LACK OF
MOISTURE...THE ABSENCE OF CONVERGENCE...PLUS PLENTY OF SUBSIDENCE
WILL NEGATE THE NEED FOR ANY SHOWERS. THIS ALONG WITH A CONTINUED
FEED OF COLD AND DRY AIR FROM THE NW AND THE 850 MB 0C ISOTHERM
PENETRATING TO NEAR THE GA/FL BORDER...WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO
ONLY THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S.

DEEP MIXING WILL ALLOW FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...GREATEST
OVER SE GA...BUT LESS THAN YESTERDAY. ON AVERAGE NW WINDS WILL BE
10-20 MPH AND GUSTY UNTIL SUNSET APPROACHES.

LAKE WINDS...THERE IS STILL OPTIMAL MIXING ON LAKE MOULTRIE TO
MAINTAIN THE LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL LATE MORNING. AT THAT TIME THE
COLD ADVECTION FADES AND ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES COME TO AN END
AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS WILL TAKE HOLD.

TONIGHT...A TRANSITIONAL PATTERN DEVELOPS AS THE NW ATLANTIC LOW
PULLS TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND ALLOWS FOR COLDER CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. ANY
LINGERING CLOUDS IN THE EVENING WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEAR SKIES AS
THE DEEP LAYERED LARGE SCALE TROUGH SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
DRY NW AND NORTH TRAJECTORIES PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE VERTICAL.
THERE/S PROBABLY A LITTLE TOO MUCH MIXING TO OCCUR GIVEN THAT
RIDGE AXIS IS WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS. BUT DESPITE THE LACK OF
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING WE LOOK FOR AMPLE COLD ADVECTION TO
OCCUR...SENDING TEMPS DOWN TO THEIR COLDEST LEVELS IN MORE THAN 2
WEEKS. FREEZING TEMPS SHOULD REACH NEAR THE INTRA-COASTAL IN SC
AND CLOSE TO I-95 IN GA. ASSOCIATED WIND CHILLS WILL BE AS LOW AS
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S BY DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...COOL AND DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A
MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH POSITIONED OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD. IN
GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON TEMPS TO ONLY PEAK IN THE LOW 50S AND
OVERNIGHT TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

THURSDAY...A LARGE MID/UPPER LVL TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EASTERN
SEABOARD BY DAYBREAK WHILE SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE AREA EARLY...THEN SLIDES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF A FAST TRACKING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING OVER THE MIDWEST. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WARMER TEMPS UNDER MID LVL RIDGING AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT
DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE WESTERN EDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING
OFFSHORE AND THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL TO THE NORTH. IN
GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTH CAROLINA
TO LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
ADVANCE QUICKLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A TRAILING
COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE A FEW
SHOWERS BEFORE DAYBREAK FRIDAY...THUS HAVE MAINTAINED A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS. DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
AREA BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE WINDS QUICKLY BECOME NORTHWEST. TEMPS
SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER POST FROPA...BUT A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT ALONG WITH A FULL DAY OF INSOLATION SHOULD STILL RESULT IN
MAX TEMPS NEAR THE UPPER 50S OVER MOST LOCATIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
FAIRLY DRY AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. A COASTAL TROUGH IS THEN
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY SUNDAY...PRODUCING
CHANCES OF SHOWERS THAT SHIFT ONSHORE AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL
UNITED STATES TO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY MORE
MILD AS THE COASTAL TROUGH MAKES A SHIFT ONSHORE...WITH OVERALL
TEMPS PEAKING IN THE MID 50S NORTH TO LOW 60S SOUTH. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY ALONG WITH CLOUDY
CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS DRAWN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CONDITIONS SHOULD
RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA POST FROPA. A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE
CENTER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COULD RESULT IN A FEW SHOWERS
DRIFTING BACK NORTH AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET TUESDAY...AND
STRONGEST AT KSAV DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT DEPICTED IN THE 06Z TAFS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE SEVERAL
HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH IN CONJUNCTION WITH
ENERGY ALOFT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH EARLY WEEKEND...BUT A FEW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A PASSING COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
EARLY THIS MORNING...A PINCHED CYCLONIC GRADIENT PREVAILS AROUND
INTENSE LOW PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND. THAT ALONG WITH
CONSIDERABLE MIXING WITHIN THE COLD ADVECTION...WILL HOLD WEST AND
NW WINDS UP AS HIGH AS 20-30 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE 0-20 NM
WATERS...AND 25-35 KT ON THE OUTER GA WATERS. AS A RESULT WE STILL
HAVE A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ374 UNTIL 7 AM...AND SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.

FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY...COLD ADVECTION WANES BY LATE MORNING AND
MORE SO THIS AFTERNOON...AND THAT ALONG WITH A MORE RELAXED AND A
SLIGHTLY MORE ANTICYCLONIC GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT
IN WINDS AND SEAS. WE SHOULD BE ABLE TO DROP THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES BY LATE MORNING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND BY 1 PM FOR
THE 0-20 NM WATERS. ONCE THE GALES COME DOWN ON THE OUTER GA WATERS
IT WILL NEED TO BE REPLACED BY A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...AT LEAST
UNTIL LATE IN THE DAY.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND PULLS FURTHER AWAY AND STARTS
TO FILL...THE LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE NEARBY WATERS
WILL GIVE WAY TO CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE GREAT
LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. WHAT IMPROVEMENT WE EXPERIENCED FROM EARLIER
IN THE DAY WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS LARGER ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES
RETURN AND COLD ADVECTION REDEVELOPS. WE/LL BE VERY CLOSE TO
REQUIRING ANOTHER SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON AMZ350 AND AMZ374 AS WINDS
AND SEAS CLIMB AGAIN.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE WATERS
BEHIND A DEPARTING COLD FRONT...WITH MUCH QUIETER CONDITIONS OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...ENHANCING AND
CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
BEHIND IT. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT THERE IS A LOW CHANCE OF
CONDITIONS TOUCHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS AND NORTHERN SC WATERS. A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP JUST
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST ON SATURDAY...PRODUCING SHOWERS THAT
EVENTUALLY SHIFT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS. THE COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD
THEN LIFT NORTH AND ONSHORE ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM THAT STRENGTHENS WHILE TRACKING WELL NORTH OF THE AREA INTO
MONDAY. A SOUTHWARD EXTENDING COLD FRONT FROM THIS LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES...THEN OFFSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT...WITH WINDS/SEAS POSSIBLY
REACHING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270549
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TO THE
SE OF LONG ISLAND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS
/BOMBOGENESIS/ OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND THE DELMARVA AT THE
SURFACE...THE ANTICIPATED BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.

BEYOND THIS WE FIND CHANNELED VORTICITY WITHIN A 130 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET THAT STREAMS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE NW. BUT THE STRATOCUMULUS ARE FINALLY DONE WITH
FOR MOST OF US...HAVING ERODED WITHIN THE WEST/NW SYNOPTIC FLOW.

A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE DISTANT LOW AND A MID-
COUNTY RIDGE...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY WELL MIXED. BUT THE CONSTANT
FEED OF COLDER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MOST PLACES BY MORNING...WITH A FEW UPPER
30S AT THE COAST. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS IT WILL YIELD WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS THE MID AND UPPER 20S CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE MOULTRIE WATERS
WILL MIX EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT...AS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WAVES ARE 1 TO 2 FT. THUS OUR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ITS PASSAGE WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR IN THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET
TUESDAY...STRONGEST AT KSAV DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT DEPICTED IN THE 06Z TAFS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AT KSAV TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND IN THE EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NE. A TIGHT
GRADIENT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND AMPLE MIXING OF
THE 30-40 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT AMZ374...WHERE WE HAVE A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT. WEST AND NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE...25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 OR
40 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO 6 OR
7 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8 TO 9 FT 50-60 NM OFF THE COAST. WAVES
WILL BE UP TO 2 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WILL THEREFORE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
AND CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270549
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TO THE
SE OF LONG ISLAND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS
/BOMBOGENESIS/ OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND THE DELMARVA AT THE
SURFACE...THE ANTICIPATED BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.

BEYOND THIS WE FIND CHANNELED VORTICITY WITHIN A 130 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET THAT STREAMS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE NW. BUT THE STRATOCUMULUS ARE FINALLY DONE WITH
FOR MOST OF US...HAVING ERODED WITHIN THE WEST/NW SYNOPTIC FLOW.

A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE DISTANT LOW AND A MID-
COUNTY RIDGE...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY WELL MIXED. BUT THE CONSTANT
FEED OF COLDER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MOST PLACES BY MORNING...WITH A FEW UPPER
30S AT THE COAST. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS IT WILL YIELD WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS THE MID AND UPPER 20S CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE MOULTRIE WATERS
WILL MIX EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT...AS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WAVES ARE 1 TO 2 FT. THUS OUR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ITS PASSAGE WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR IN THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET
TUESDAY...STRONGEST AT KSAV DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

ALTHOUGH NOT DEPICTED IN THE 06Z TAFS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SEVERAL HOURS OF BROKEN CEILINGS AROUND 6K FT AT KSAV TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND IN THE EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NE. A TIGHT
GRADIENT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND AMPLE MIXING OF
THE 30-40 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT AMZ374...WHERE WE HAVE A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT. WEST AND NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE...25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 OR
40 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO 6 OR
7 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8 TO 9 FT 50-60 NM OFF THE COAST. WAVES
WILL BE UP TO 2 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WILL THEREFORE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
AND CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270311
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1011 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TO THE
SE OF LONG ISLAND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS
/BOMBOGENESIS/ OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND THE DELMARVA AT THE
SURFACE...THE ANTICIPATED BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.

BEYOND THIS WE FIND CHANNELED VORTICITY WITHIN A 130 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET THAT STREAMS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE NW. BUT THE STRATOCUMULUS ARE FINALLY DONE WITH
FOR MOST OF US...HAVING ERODED WITHIN THE WEST/NW SYNOPTIC FLOW.

A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE DISTANT LOW AND A MID-
COUNTY RIDGE...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY WELL MIXED. BUT THE CONSTANT
FEED OF COLDER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MOST PLACES BY MORNING...WITH A FEW UPPER
30S AT THE COAST. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS IT WILL YIELD WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS THE MID AND UPPER 20S CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE MOULTRIE WATERS
WILL MIX EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT...AS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WAVES ARE 1 TO 2 FT. THUS OUR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ITS PASSAGE WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR IN THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NE. A TIGHT
GRADIENT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND AMPLE MIXING OF
THE 30-40 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT AMZ374...WHERE WE HAVE A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT. WEST AND NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE...25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 OR
40 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO 6 OR
7 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8 TO 9 FT 50-60 NM OFF THE COAST. WAVES
WILL BE UP TO 2 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WILL THEREFORE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
AND CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270311
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1011 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTH AND NORTHEAST
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A STORM
SYSTEM WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TO THE
SE OF LONG ISLAND IS RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING INTENSE CYCLOGENESIS
/BOMBOGENESIS/ OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND THE DELMARVA AT THE
SURFACE...THE ANTICIPATED BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES.

BEYOND THIS WE FIND CHANNELED VORTICITY WITHIN A 130 KT OR GREATER
UPPER JET THAT STREAMS IN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND TENNESSEE
VALLEY. THIS WILL PRODUCE PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS AND CIRRUS CLOUDS
ARRIVING FROM THE NW. BUT THE STRATOCUMULUS ARE FINALLY DONE WITH
FOR MOST OF US...HAVING ERODED WITHIN THE WEST/NW SYNOPTIC FLOW.

A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE DISTANT LOW AND A MID-
COUNTY RIDGE...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY WELL MIXED. BUT THE CONSTANT
FEED OF COLDER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MOST PLACES BY MORNING...WITH A FEW UPPER
30S AT THE COAST. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS IT WILL YIELD WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS THE MID AND UPPER 20S CLOSER TO DAYBREAK
TUESDAY.

LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE MOULTRIE WATERS
WILL MIX EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT...AS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS
CONTINUE AT 20 TO 25 KT AND WAVES ARE 1 TO 2 FT. THUS OUR LAKE
WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN FORCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ITS PASSAGE WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR IN THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NORTH/NE. A TIGHT
GRADIENT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND AMPLE MIXING OF
THE 30-40 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT AMZ374...WHERE WE HAVE A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT. WEST AND NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE...25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 OR
40 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO 6 OR
7 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8 TO 9 FT 50-60 NM OFF THE COAST. WAVES
WILL BE UP TO 2 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WILL THEREFORE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
AND CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270058
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL RAPIDLY INTENSITY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TONIGHT. A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA
FRIDAY...WITH A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE ON SATURDAY. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL THEN AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL
ALOFT WITH A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE EAST. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR TRIGGERING INTENSE
CYCLOGENESIS OFF CAPE HATTERAS AND THE DELMARVA AT THE
SURFACE...THE ANTICIPATED BLIZZARD FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH STATES.

THERE IS A WEAKER...BUT STILL FAIRLY DECENT SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THIS EVENING WHICH WILL STILL PRODUCE A LITTLE LIGHT
SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL ABOUT
9 PM...WITH DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.

THE LARGE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE ATLANTIC STORM WILL EXTEND
ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH PREVENTS HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE GREAT PLAINS FROM MAKING MUCH EASTWARD PROGRESS.
THIS IN TURN LIMITS HOW MUCH DECREASE IN CLOUDINESS IS ABLE TO
OCCUR. A FAIRLY LARGE CLEAR SWATH AS FORMED OVER SOUTHERN
CHARLESTON...MUCH OF COLLETON AND PARTS OF ALLENDALE AND HAMPTON
COUNTIES. NOT YET SURE IF THIS IS ONLY TEMPORARY OR IF OTHER
CLOUDS WILL FILL BE BACK. EVEN SO...THE TREND SHOULD BE FOR A MORE
PRONOUNCED CLEARING TO DEVELOP OVER THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING
AND/OR OVERNIGHT AS THE SYNOPTIC FLOW VEERS NW AND THE DOWNSLOPE
OFF THE MOUNTAINS ERODES THE STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER.

A TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN THE DISTANT LOW AND THE MID-
COUNTY RIDGE...KEEPING THINGS PRETTY WELL MIXED. BUT THE CONSTANT
FEED OF COLDER AIR FROM THE WEST AND NW WILL SEND TEMPS DOWN TO
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 30S MOST PLACES BY MORNING...WITH A FEW UPPER
30S AT THE COAST. COMBINED WITH THE WINDS IT WILL YIELD WIND
CHILLS AS COLD AS THE MID AND UPPER 20S CLOSER TO DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

LAKE WINDS...COLD ADVECTION ACROSS THE WARMER LAKE MOULTRIE WATERS
WILL MIX EFFICIENTLY TONIGHT...AS WEST AND NORTHWEST WINDS REACH
20 TO 25 KT AND WAVES ARE 1 TO 2 FT. THUS OUR LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN FORCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A DEEP...VERTICALLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE...A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL DROP ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. GIVEN A DRY WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ITS PASSAGE WILL BE RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REACH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S ACROSS THE AREA. COLD AIR
ADVECTION AND CLEARING SKIES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL RESULT IN A COOL
NIGHT WITH LOWS AROUND 30 OR IN THE LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE
EAST COAST ON WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE OF A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING
THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST ON
WEDNESDAY...SETTLE OVER THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFT
OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. SUBSIDENCE AND A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CONDITIONS RAIN-FREE. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN
UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AND NIGHTTIME
LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S AWAY FROM THE COAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S FOR HIGHS
THURSDAY AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND A SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW
DEVELOPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ADVANCE OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DEEP MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING
DURING THE TIME OF FROPA...BUT ISOLATED SHOWERS APPEAR POSSIBLE
MAINLY THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY DRY AND SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS
ARE THEN ANTICIPATED ON SATURDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH. A STORM SYSTEM APPEARS TO SPREAD CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH AIRFIELDS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.
WEST/NW WINDS WILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES UNTIL SUNSET TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NASTY MARINE CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AS LOW PRESSURE OFF
THE DELMARVA RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES AS IT LIFTS NE. A TIGHT
GRADIENT...STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND AMPLE MIXING OF
THE 30-40 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB WILL SUPPORT SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL BUT AMZ374...WHERE WE HAVE A GALE WARNING
IN EFFECT. WEST AND NW WINDS WILL AVERAGE 20 TO 25 KT...WITH GUSTS
OF 30 KT WITHIN 20 NM OF SHORE...25 TO 30 KT WITH GUSTS OF 35 OR
40 KT OVER THE OUTER GA WATERS...AND 15 TO 25 KT IN CHARLESTON
HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST TO 6 OR
7 FT NEAR 20 NM OUT AND 8 TO 9 FT 50-60 NM OFF THE COAST. WAVES
WILL BE UP TO 2 FT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN WHILE LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
OF THE LOW...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS IN THE MORNING...WITH
SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE GRADIENT
WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE NEAR
SHORE WATERS WILL THEREFORE BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY LATE
MORNING...WITH CONDITIONS FALLING BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON. A
REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL THEN DROP THROUGH LATE TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH A NORTHERLY SURGE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. THERE
IS A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO BRIEFLY REACH BACK TO SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT
OVER THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY...SLIGHTLY ENHANCING
AND CHANGING A SOUTHERLY WIND TO NORTHERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN BEHIND IT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH COULD DEVELOP OFFSHORE ON
SATURDAY...WITH A STORM SYSTEM EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA LATE IN
THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ330-350-
     352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST TUESDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







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