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000
FXUS62 KCHS 292324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE. BUT ON
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV
WILL BE VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH
TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS
LOOK TO STAY INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH
SYNOPTIC FLOW. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON
SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
BUT THERE IS NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 292219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW. BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW. BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291930
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENCE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. A PERSISTENT E-W ORIENTED LINE
OF CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THE SEABREEZE HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY...AS
WELL AS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE
GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...INITIATION OF LIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY CONSISTENT TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER STRONG UPPER
RIDGING.

ANY SCATTERED SKY COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHEN COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A BRIEF SHOWER MOVED ONSHORE OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE TAF HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A BRIEF SHOWER MOVED ONSHORE OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE TAF HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE
FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS
HINTED BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS
MAINLY BELOW 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOWEVER THE EARLY
LOOK AT FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND
MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE
FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS
HINTED BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS
MAINLY BELOW 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOWEVER THE EARLY
LOOK AT FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND
MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR DAYBREAK
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS THANKS TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY PROBLEMS
AS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW COOLER RURAL INLAND SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MINS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FROM
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS HINTED
BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS MAINLY BELOW
10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR DAYBREAK
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS THANKS TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY PROBLEMS
AS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW COOLER RURAL INLAND SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MINS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FROM
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS HINTED
BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS MAINLY BELOW
10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AT MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ELEVATED FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS...WEATHER REMAINS QUITE TRANQUIL.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM SSW ACROSS CHARLESTON WATERS TO SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AT MIDNIGHT. SURFACE DEW POINTS
ELEVATED FROM PREVIOUS MORNINGS...WEATHER REMAINS QUITE TRANQUIL.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM SSW ACROSS CHARLESTON WATERS TO SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KCHS RAOB DEPICTED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE
AUGUST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID
70S ON THE BEACHES.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS
UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM S/SW ACROSS SC WATERS TO E/SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 290216
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1016 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KCHS RAOB DEPICTED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE
AUGUST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID
70S ON THE BEACHES.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE...JOINED BY THE 00Z NAM...DEPICTS
INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT. GIVEN DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S
TO NEAR 70F ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG INLAND LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY FRIDAY. HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AND
THE EVENTUAL COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG REMAINS
UNCLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM S/SW ACROSS SC WATERS TO E/SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE 00Z KCHS RAOB DEPICTED AN UNUSUALLY DRY AIRMASS FOR LATE
AUGUST. UNDER CLEAR SKIES/WITH LIGHT WINDS THIS AIRMASS WILL
SUPPORT EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. BY DAYBREAK...LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 60S AT MOST INLAND LOCATIONS TO THE LOWER/MID
70S ON THE BEACHES.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS INLAND FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...AS OF LATE THURSDAY EVENING NOT CONVINCED
THAT COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY RADIATION FOG JUSTIFIES A MENTION
WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS...PERHAPS
WE WILL NEED TO ADD A MENTION OF PATCHY FOG LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD HOLD WINDS BELOW 15 KT OVERNIGHT. INITIAL WIND DIRECTION
WILL RANGE FROM S/SW ACROSS SC WATERS TO E/SE ACROSS GA WATERS.
WINDS WILL VEER WITH TIME...AND BY DAYBREAK THE LAND BREEZE WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO W/SW MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-3
FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 3-4 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SEA STATE WILL
BE DOMINATED BY A 9-10 SECOND PERIOD SWELL.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 282233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
633 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE
AND REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR/WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
633 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THURSDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GOOD SHAPE
AND REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH FRIDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK FRIDAY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR/WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/RJB/







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281952
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
352 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE COMBINATION OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND STRONG RIDGING
ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS...AS
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS CREATE AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL INTO THE MID 60S
INLAND TO THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70 DEGREES NEAR THE COASTLINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL SET UP SHOP ABOVE THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE WE FIND AN ATLANTIC
RIDGE AROUND 28-30 DEGREES NORTH FRIDAY...THAT BECOMES ABSORBED BY A
STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH THAT PUSHES EAST/SE OFF NEW ENGLAND OVER THE
WEEKEND.

A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AND THE CONTINUED LACK OF MOISTURE ON
FRIDAY...WITH PWATS DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL...WILL MAINTAIN OUR CURRENT STRETCH OF RAIN-FREE WEATHER. WE
CAN/T ENTIRELY RULE OUT SOMETHING SNEAKING IN FROM SOUTH OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER LATE IN THE DAY...BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10
PERCENT OR LESS. FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY LESS THAN 70 DEGREES...SO THE HUMIDITY STILL WON/T BE
HARSH. TEMPS THOUGH WILL BE QUITE WARM...PEAKING IN THE LOWER OR
MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL AND WARMEST WEST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR.

MOISTURE WILL STEADILY BE ON THE INCREASE BOTH SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AND THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BECOME MORE
TYPICALLY UNSTABLE AS A RESULT. WITH A MID LEVEL 5930-5940 METER
ANTICYCLONE OVERHEAD THROUGH THE PERIOD THERE IS NOT REALLY MUCH
TRIGGERING MECHANISM OTHER THAN THE SEA BREEZE ON SATURDAY...AND
THE SEA BREEZE AND MAYBE A LEE SIDE TROUGH ON SUNDAY. THUS WE ARE
RELUCTANT TO CARRY ANY COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND T-STORMS GREATER
THAN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED...HIGHEST OVER THE WEST/SW SECTIONS
WHERE ANY BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS MAY OCCUR. STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY
NON-EXISTENT SATURDAY AND NO MORE THAN 5-10 KT SUNDAY...AND WHEN
COMBINED WITH PWATS BACK UP NEAR NORMAL SATURDAY AND APPROACHING 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY SUPPORTS A RISK FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS PRIOR TO ANY RAINFALL
WILL HIT THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND AND THE MID OR UPPER 80S
AT THE BEACHES DUE TO A SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FETCH AND THE SEA BREEZE.
WHEN COMBINED WITH DEW POINTS UP NEAR OR GREATER THAN 70 BOTH
DAYS...THE STICKY CONDITIONS WILL HAVE RETURNED.

CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS ARE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG SATURDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY INLAND. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE LACK OF RECENT RAINS
AND MANY LOCATIONS STRUGGLING TO REACH THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMPS WE
HAVE NOT YET ADDED ANY MENTION IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS IN
MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR DURING THE PRE
DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE
PERIOD. LOW END PROBABILITIES OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA
SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH LOW TO MODERATE POTENTIAL FOR
SUB-VFR WEATHER IN FOG AROUND DAYBREAK SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS WILL
MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE ONLY MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL 2 TO 3 FT SWELL ACROSS MAINLY THE OUTER
WATERS IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL...THE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
MARINE LOCALES WILL BE RATHER NON-EVENTFUL AND UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WEAK OFFSHORE WINDS EARLY FRIDAY WILL
THEN BE FOLLOWED BY LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS
THE BALANCE OF THE VALID PERIOD...WITH SEAS ON AVERAGE NO MORE
THAN 2 TO 3 FT. EVENTUALLY A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP DURING THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT
AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/RJB/








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES REMAIN UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS A PARTICULARLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE LOW AT LESS THAN ONE
INCH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE...WHILE JUST A FEW CUMULUS OR CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OR
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AFTER 19Z...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR
DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL SWELL IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL. A 4 TO 5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO DECREASE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES REMAIN UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS A PARTICULARLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE LOW AT LESS THAN ONE
INCH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT ZERO
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE...WHILE JUST A FEW CUMULUS OR CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OR
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.
VARIABLE FLOW EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME SOUTH WITH
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AFTER 19Z...OTHERWISE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE ARE SOME
INDICATIONS IN MODEL GUIDANCE THAT PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD OCCUR
DURING THE PRE DAWN HOURS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORMATION AND ANY NOTABLE IMPACTS ARE TOO LOW TO
INCLUDE IN THE 18Z TAF ISSUANCE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL SWELL IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL. A 4 TO 5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO DECREASE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...RJB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE
THIS WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL LATE THIS MORNING AS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED
STATES REMAIN UNDER DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z CHARLESTON
SOUNDING ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS A PARTICULARLY DRY ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES QUITE LOW AT LESS THAN
ONE INCH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE WILL SUPPORT
ZERO RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL
STEADILY WARM INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE...WHILE JUST A FEW CUMULUS OR CIRRUS CLOUDS DEVELOP OR
PASS THROUGH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES WILL
MIX DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S ACROSS INLAND
AREAS...MAINTAINING UNSEASONABLY LOW HUMIDITY TODAY.

CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT...WITH LOW
TEMPERATURES FALLING BACK INTO THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY
AND MAINTAIN FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN MARINE
CONCERN WILL BE RESIDUAL SWELL IN THE WAKE OF DISTANT HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL. A 4 TO 5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY TODAY WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. ACROSS THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS...EXPECT A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD SWELL TO DECREASE TO 2 FT
OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...WMS/RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. PWATS
STILL BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW COASTAL CUMULUS
AND CIRRUS POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO THE
WEST OF I-95.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND W INTO OUR COASTAL
WATERS ENSURING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS THE RESIDUAL SWELL WAVE COMPONENT. LATEST WAVE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THE SWELL TODAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE. WE RECENTLY LOWERED OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS EVIDENCE THAT SEAS WERE NOW CLOSER TO
5 FT OUT THERE...OTHERWISE 4-5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE...A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
730 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. PWATS
STILL BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AFTERNOON DEW
POINTS EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN INLAND FROM THE
COASTAL CORRIDOR. SUNSHINE WILL PREVAIL WITH ONLY A FEW COASTAL CUMULUS
AND CIRRUS POSSIBLE. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS
WITH LOWER TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO THE
WEST OF I-95.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND W INTO OUR COASTAL
WATERS ENSURING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS THE RESIDUAL SWELL WAVE COMPONENT. LATEST WAVE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THE SWELL TODAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE. WE RECENTLY LOWERED OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS EVIDENCE THAT SEAS WERE NOW CLOSER TO
5 FT OUT THERE...OTHERWISE 4-5 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY WILL
SUBSIDE TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE...A 2 TO 3 FT LONG PERIOD
SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
348 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS BY
DAYBREAK CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES IN FAR INLAND RURAL LOCATIONS TO
THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. PWATS STILL
BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WITH LOWER
TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO THE WEST OF I-95.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND W INTO OUR COASTAL
WATERS ENSURING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS THE RESIDUAL SWELL WAVE COMPONENT. LATEST WAVE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THE SWELL TODAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE. WE MAINTAINED OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS UNTIL DAYBREAK THIS MORNING GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE 4-6 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY WILL
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE...A 2 TO 3 FT LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
348 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD OVER THE AREA LATE THIS
WEEK AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPS BY
DAYBREAK CLOSER TO 60 DEGREES IN FAR INLAND RURAL LOCATIONS TO
THE 70S ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING AND DRY AIR IN PLACE AGAIN TODAY. PWATS STILL
BELOW 1 INCH FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA AND AFTERNOON DEW POINTS
EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE 50S ONCE AGAIN INLAND FROM THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST HIGH TEMPS WITH LOWER
TO MID 90S EXPECTED WITH THE WARMEST READINGS TO THE WEST OF I-95.

CLEAR SKIES CONTINUE TO PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING BACK INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD KEEPING RAIN CHANCES FAIRLY
LOW OVERALL AND TEMPERATURES MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. FRIDAY SHOULD BE
DRY GIVEN THE LINGERING DRY AIR MASS IN PLACE BUT BY THE WEEKEND
SOME MOISTURE RETURNING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH COULD HELP
SPARK A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IN PRETTY DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING THE RIDGING
OVER THE REGION WEAKENING SLIGHTLY TOWARD MID WEEK AS A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH. BY THURSDAY A BIT MORE
MOISTURE AND THIS WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD LEAD TO SLIGHTLY
GREATER RAIN CHANCES. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MOSTLY VFR ALTHOUGH MVFR VSBYS POSSIBLE
IN FOG NEAR DAYBREAK EACH DAY THROUGH AT LEAST LATE WEEK. ALSO...LOW
PROBS OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
AS HIGH PRES BUILDS OVER THE WESTERN ATLC IN THE WAKE OF HURRICANE
CRISTOBAL...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL EXPAND W INTO OUR COASTAL
WATERS ENSURING MAINLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST
PROBLEM TODAY IS THE RESIDUAL SWELL WAVE COMPONENT. LATEST WAVE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DAMPEN THE SWELL TODAY WHICH IS IN LINE WITH
OUR FORECAST PERSISTENCE. WE MAINTAINED OUR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
FOR OUTER GEORGIA WATERS UNTIL DAYBREAK THIS MORNING GIVEN LATEST
GUIDANCE...OTHERWISE 4-6 FT SWELL WAVE BEYOND 20 NM EARLY WILL
SUBSIDING TO 3 TO 4 FT BY TONIGHT. NEAR SHORE...A 2 TO 3 FT LONG
PERIOD SWELL WILL DECREASE TO 2 FT OR LESS BY LATER TONIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CONCERNS WITH ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WINDS MAINLY S/SW 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 3 FT
OR LESS...ALTHOUGH SOME SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST EACH AFTERNOON AND OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...
MARINE...RJB







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280459
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1259 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EQUATING TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S INLAND...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLEST SPOTS OF THE NW TIER. NOT QUITE RECORDS BUT SOME
4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO HOLD BARRIER ISLAND TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW THE STICKY WEATHER WOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...LOCATED
SOME 450-500 MILES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ONCE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES DROP OFF THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SET IN...BEFORE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND AND WARMER WATERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO SW AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL HOLD AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE STILL CHURNED UP FROM BACK SWELLS
FROM CRISTOBAL...STILL AS HIGH AS 4 OR 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO
6 FT OR SO ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL ABOUT A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ374.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280459
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1259 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES...MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS
WILL SUPPORT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EQUATING TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S INLAND...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLEST SPOTS OF THE NW TIER. NOT QUITE RECORDS BUT SOME
4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO HOLD BARRIER ISLAND TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW THE STICKY WEATHER WOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...LOCATED
SOME 450-500 MILES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ONCE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES DROP OFF THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SET IN...BEFORE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND AND WARMER WATERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO SW AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL HOLD AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE STILL CHURNED UP FROM BACK SWELLS
FROM CRISTOBAL...STILL AS HIGH AS 4 OR 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO
6 FT OR SO ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL ABOUT A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ374.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WEST OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
AND DEEP- LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. CLEAR
SKIES...MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EQUATING TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S INLAND...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLEST SPOTS OF THE NW TIER. NOT QUITE RECORDS BUT SOME
4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO HOLD BARRIER ISLAND TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW THE STICKY WEATHER WOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...LOCATED
SOME 450-500 MILES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ONCE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES DROP OFF THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SET IN...BEFORE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND AND WARMER WATERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO SW AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL HOLD AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE STILL CHURNED UP FROM BACK SWELLS
FROM CRISTOBAL...STILL AS HIGH AS 4 OR 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO
6 FT OR SO ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL ABOUT A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ374.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THURSDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
FORECAST LOOKS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE
WITH THE LATEST FORECAST. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WEST OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL
AND DEEP- LAYERED RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER
UNSEASONABLY COOL NIGHT BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. CLEAR
SKIES...MOSTLY CALM WINDS AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL
SUPPORT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL COOLING...EQUATING TO LOWS IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S INLAND...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE
NORMALLY COOLEST SPOTS OF THE NW TIER. NOT QUITE RECORDS BUT SOME
4-8 DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH
MIXING TO HOLD BARRIER ISLAND TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW THE STICKY WEATHER WOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...LOCATED
SOME 450-500 MILES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ONCE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES DROP OFF THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SET IN...BEFORE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND AND WARMER WATERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO SW AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL HOLD AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE STILL CHURNED UP FROM BACK SWELLS
FROM CRISTOBAL...STILL AS HIGH AS 4 OR 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO
6 FT OR SO ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL ABOUT A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ374.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272258
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
658 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WEST OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. CLEAR SKIES...MOSTLY CALM WINDS
AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EQUATING TO LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
INLAND...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST SPOTS
OF THE NW TIER. NOT QUITE RECORDS BUT SOME 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO HOLD BARRIER
ISLAND TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW THE STICKY WEATHER WOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...LOCATED
SOME 450-500 MILES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ONCE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES DROP OFF THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SET IN...BEFORE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND AND WARMER WATERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO SW AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL HOLD AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE STILL CHURNED UP FROM BACK SWELLS
FROM CRISTOBAL...STILL AS HIGH AS 4 OR 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO
6 FT OR SO ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL ABOUT A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ374.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272258
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
658 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WEST OF HURRICANE CRISTOBAL AND DEEP-LAYERED
RIDGING WILL PROVIDE THE REGION WITH ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY COOL
NIGHT BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS. CLEAR SKIES...MOSTLY CALM WINDS
AND AN EXTREMELY DRY AIR MASS WILL SUPPORT OPTIMAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING...EQUATING TO LOWS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S
INLAND...MAYBE EVEN A FEW UPPER 50S IN THE NORMALLY COOLEST SPOTS
OF THE NW TIER. NOT QUITE RECORDS BUT SOME 4-8 DEGREES BELOW
CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMS. THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MIXING TO HOLD BARRIER
ISLAND TEMPS TO THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S AWAY FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW THE STICKY WEATHER WOULD EVENTUALLY
RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST IN WAKE OF THE
DEPARTING CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CRISTOBAL...LOCATED
SOME 450-500 MILES AWAY TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. ONCE SEA BREEZE
INFLUENCES DROP OFF THIS EVENING A SOUTHERLY SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL
SET IN...BEFORE LAND BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WITH A LARGE SPREAD
BETWEEN THE COOLER LAND AND WARMER WATERS DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT
ALLOWING FOR WINDS TO VEER TO SW AND WEST. SPEEDS WILL HOLD AT OR
BELOW 10 KT THROUGHOUT. SEAS ARE STILL CHURNED UP FROM BACK SWELLS
FROM CRISTOBAL...STILL AS HIGH AS 4 OR 5 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO
6 FT OR SO ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SEAS WILL FALL ABOUT A FOOT
LATER TONIGHT. UNTIL THEN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR AMZ374.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS
STEADILY COOL AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER COASTLINE ACTUALLY SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW EVENTUALLY IT WOULD RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FAR IN THE ATLANTIC WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL
THUS STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTING HURRICANE. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL AWAY FROM THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LATE THIS WEEK AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...AS THE FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. DRY
CONDITIONS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT AN IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT OVERNIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THUS
STEADILY COOL AFTER SUNSET...WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO
MID 60S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY WARMER COASTLINE ACTUALLY SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP-LAYERED AND FORMIDABLE ANTICYCLONE WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AND
ATOP THE LOCAL AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE
SURFACE AN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN LATER THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BEFORE IT STRENGTHENS AS IT MERGES WITH AN EVEN STRONGER
HIGH MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY.

A VERTICAL SNAPSHOT OF THE TROPOSPHERE SHOWS A CONTINUED LACK OF
MOISTURE THURSDAY...WITH PWATS STILL DOWN NEAR 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY IT/LL BE HARD-PRESSED TO SE ANYTHING
MORE THAN A FEW FLAT CUMULUS HUMILIS CLOUDS IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS
IN ADVANCE OF THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE WILL PEAK IN THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S INLAND FROM THE ISLANDS.

ON FRIDAY THERE IS A SUBTLE INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS THE DRY AIR
INITIALLY ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BECOMES SQUASHED FROM BOTH THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. BUT CONTINUED POOR LAPSE RATES...WEAK INSTABILITY
AND A SUBSIDENCE CAP WILL LIKELY KEEP US RAIN-FREE ONE MORE DAY. WE
CAN/T RULE OUT SOMETHING POPPING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE AND/OR
SNEAKING IN FROM THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WE HAVE HELD POPS
TO LESS THAN 12 PERCENT. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN COMMON AWAY
FROM THE BEACHES AND IT LOOKS TO BE THE LAST DAY WITH SUB-70 DEW
POINTS.

SATURDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN RETURNS TO A MORE TYPICAL LATE AUGUST
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH A MORE NOTED RETURN OF MOISTURE WITH
A SOUTH TO SW LOW LEVEL FLOW TOPPED BY AN EAST-SE FLOW ALOFT. THIS
WILL ALLOW FOR AT LEAST A SMALL RETURN OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS...MOST
ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. BUT WITH THE LACK OF ANY LARGE SCALE
FORCING WE ARE HESITANT TO GO ANYTHING MORE THAN 20-30
POPS...GREATEST SOUTH AND SW SECTIONS OF THE CWFA WHERE THE BEST
THETA-E ADVECTION IS FOUND. LOWER AND MIDDLE 90S ARE AGAIN THE RULE
PRIOR TO ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S DEW POINTS WILL YIELD SOME HEAT INDICES OF
100-105. OH WELL...YOU KNEW EVENTUALLY IT WOULD RETURN AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED TO PERHAPS
SCATTERED AND MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION WITH BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FAR IN THE ATLANTIC WILL STEADILY
WEAKEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAYTIME HOURS. WINDS WILL
THUS STEADILY DIMINISH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD...HOWEVER SEAS
WILL STILL REMAIN ELEVATED DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS FROM THE
DEPARTING HURRICANE. WILL THEREFORE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...FOR THE MOST PART CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY QUIET INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...GENERALLY
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. EVEN WITH
REGULAR AFTERNOON/EVENING SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND SLIGHT
NOCTURNAL SURGES OUR WINDS WILL HOLD AT OR LESS THAN 10 TO 15 KT.
WITH SMALL BACK SWELL FROM CRISTOBAL THURSDAY THERE WILL STILL BE
SOME 5-FOOTERS ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. BUT OTHERWISE...SEAS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL MAINLY BE LESS THAN 3 OR 4 FT. OUR HIATUS
FROM SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL COME TO AN END LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR
SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED COVERAGE OF CONVECTION
EXPECTED THEREAFTER.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE ABSENCE OF ANY RIP CURRENT REPORTS THE PAST
2 DAYS AND WANING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WE/LL GO WITH A LOW RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SINCE SMALL BACK SWELL FROM
CRISTOBAL WILL PERSIST...WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE SITUATION
CAREFULLY AGAIN COME EARLY THURSDAY MORNING TO SEE IF AN ELEVATED
RISK MIGHT BE A BETTER WAY TO GO.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271748
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
148 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
TODAY...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE ONGOING FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITHIN A QUIET WEATHER
PATTERN...AND LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON
UPDATE. CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AS THE
SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER
RIDGING. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT CHARLESTON REVEALED A CONSIDERABLY
DRY PROFILE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BELOW 1 INCH QUITE
UNSEASONABLY LOW FOR LATE AUGUST. DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES HAVE
ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE LOW 60S TO UPPER 50S MANY AREAS THIS
AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING LOW HUMIDITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES REACH
SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND SURFACE HIGH
AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST. NORTH
WINDS WILL THUS BECOME MORE ONSHORE WITHIN A LIGHT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND
KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
HIGH PRESSURE AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FAR IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS FROM THE DEPARTING
HURRICANE...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20
NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE
NORTH FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE WITHIN A WEAK SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271505
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1105 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH MID WEEK...AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE REGION
THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS
GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS DURING THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE
MORNING...AS THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES REMAINS UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. THE 12Z SOUNDING AT CHARLESTON
REVEALED A CONSIDERABLY DRY PROFILE...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES BELOW 1 INCH UNSEASONABLY LOW FOR LATE AUGUST. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE 50S ACROSS INLAND AREAS
THIS AFTERNOON...SUPPORTING LOW HUMIDITY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACH SEASONAL AVERAGES IN THE LOW 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE INLAND SURFACE
HIGH AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WELL OFFSHORE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN
AS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO DEPART TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST.
NORTH WINDS WILL THUS BECOME MORE ONSHORE WITHIN A LIGHT SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND
HIGH PRESSURE AND HURRICANE CRISTOBAL FAR IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. SEAS WILL STILL REMAIN
ELEVATED DUE TO LINGERING SWELLS FROM THE DEPARTING
HURRICANE...AND WILL CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY BEYOND 20
NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY. MODERATE
NORTH FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT ONSHORE WITHIN A WEAK SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...MAKING IT QUITE PLEASANT FOR
LATE AUGUST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AROUND 90...FOR MOST LOCALES BUT WARMEST INLAND. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD TIP ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATE WITH A LAZY SEA
BREEZE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL MAKE FOR
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRES
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...MAKING IT QUITE PLEASANT FOR
LATE AUGUST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AROUND 90...FOR MOST LOCALES BUT WARMEST INLAND. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD TIP ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATE WITH A LAZY SEA
BREEZE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL MAKE FOR
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRES
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270807
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...MAKING IT QUITE PLEASANT FOR
LATE AUGUST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AROUND 90...FOR MOST LOCALES BUT WARMEST INLAND. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD TIP ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATE WITH A LAZY SEA
BREEZE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/28. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE LATE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LAZILY PUSHES THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL MAKE FOR
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRES
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270807
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
407 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS DRY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND WESTWARD
OVER GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...DEEP HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR AN UNSEASONABLY DRY AIR
MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE. IN FACT...WE COULD SEE DEWPOINTS FALL
INTO THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON INLAND...MAKING IT QUITE PLEASANT FOR
LATE AUGUST. SUNNY SKIES WILL PREVAIL AND TEMPS SHOULD BE CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AROUND 90...FOR MOST LOCALES BUT WARMEST INLAND. NORTH
WINDS SHOULD TIP ONSHORE NEAR THE COAST LATE WITH A LAZY SEA
BREEZE.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE WITH DRY CONDITIONS. LIGHT
WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES WILL MAKE FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
ALLOWING TEMPS TO GET DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND
MOSTLY LOWER 70S AT THE COAST GIVEN THE COOLER OFFSHORE
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BLANKET THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
FROM LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. IN THE MID LEVELS...THE RIDGE WILL
BECOME CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. IN THE
LOWER LEVELS AND AT THE SURFACE...IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL TAKE UNTIL
SATURDAY BEFORE ENOUGH MOISTURE ADVECTION POSES A REAL RISK FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION.

DRY WARM WEATHER EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AS A BONE DRY DEEP LAYERED
MOISTURE COLUMN RESIDES OVER THE REGION. HIGH TEMPS MANY AREAS SHOULD
REACH THE MID 90S WITH LIGHT AND VRBL SURFACE WINDS PRIOR TO THE
LATE DAY SEA BREEZE. ON FRIDAY...DEEPER MOISTURE IS NOTED BOTH NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT DRY LAYERS HANG ON FOR SOUTHERN
SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER SE GEORGIA. ENOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT AND POOR
INSTABILITY TO KEEP POPS OUT OF THE FORECAST BUT A SPOTTY LATE DAY
SHOWER CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT ALONG THE SEA BREEZE OR NEAR THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER AREA.

ON SATURDAY...THE RIDGE EXPANDS NORTHWARD AND A SE TO S SYNOPTIC
FLOW COMPONENT WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO BUILD NORTHWARD WITH TIME.
WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE TYPICAL
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. SOME CHANCE POPS WERE
ALSO MAINTAINED ACROSS INLAND GEORGIA ZONES AND LOCALES TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S WITH MAX HEAT INDICES
RETURNING TO THE 100-105 DEGREE RANGE IN SOME AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND AN INLAND
SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALLOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND CONVERGENCE TO
SUPPORT A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPS
SHOULD GENERALLY RUN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS
LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/28. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE LATE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LAZILY PUSHES THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR. AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION
POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL MAKE FOR
DIMINISHING WINDS AND IMPROVING CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH SEAS WILL
REMAIN ELEVATED GIVEN THE SWELLS FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL. WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY BEYOND 20 NM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING JUST BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS IN THE NEAR SHORE WATERS
WITH SLOW IMPROVEMENT THROUGH THE DAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL PRES
GRADIENTS OVER THE WATERS SUGGEST A FAIRLY TRANQUIL PERIOD FOR THE
WATERS LATE WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. RESIDUAL
LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE ON THURSDAY AS 4-5 FT
SEAS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS LINGER BUT MAINLY 2-3 FT
WITHIN 20 NM. LIGHT DAYTIME WINDS AND 10-15 KT NOCTURNAL SURGES
FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD TYPIFY THE WEEKEND WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TODAY AS
A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING SWELLS
FROM HURRICANE CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB/
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. ONCE CRISTOBAL DEPARTS BY LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
DESPITE A LITTLE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL STEADILY SHIFT
NORTH ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION/REDEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY PERIOD...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW MOISTURE
PROFILES LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL THEN INTRODUCE JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
AT SEASONAL NORMALS...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/28. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE LATE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LAZILY PUSHES THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN ENHANCED BUT GRADUALLY RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS AMZ374...ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND
SEAS 5-8 FT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON WEDNESDAY...AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTH WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THUS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING
2 TO 3 FT 10 SECOND SWELLS BEHIND CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. ONCE CRISTOBAL DEPARTS BY LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
GENERALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT WITH UNSEASONABLY COOL TEMPERATURES
DESPITE A LITTLE NORTH/NORTHEAST BREEZE. LOWS GENERALLY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL STEADILY SHIFT
NORTH ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION/REDEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY PERIOD...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW MOISTURE
PROFILES LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL THEN INTRODUCE JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
AT SEASONAL NORMALS...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z/28. NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS WILL SHIFT ONSHORE LATE
TODAY AS THE SEA BREEZE LAZILY PUSHES THROUGH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN ENHANCED BUT GRADUALLY RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS AMZ374...ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND
SEAS 5-8 FT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON WEDNESDAY...AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTH WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THUS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING
2 TO 3 FT 10 SECOND SWELLS BEHIND CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...RJB/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. ONCE CRISTOBAL DEPARTS BY LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...LOW TEMPERATURES 70-75F
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL STEADILY SHIFT
NORTH ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION/REDEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY PERIOD...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW MOISTURE
PROFILES LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL THEN INTRODUCE JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
AT SEASONAL NORMALS...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH WED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN ENHANCED BUT GRADUALLY RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS AMZ374...ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND
SEAS 5-8 FT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON WEDNESDAY...AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTH WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THUS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING
2 TO 3 FT 10 SECOND SWELLS BEHIND CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL TRACK NORTH WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST THROUGH MID WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH. ONCE CRISTOBAL DEPARTS BY LATE WEEK...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SETTLE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE
TO STREAM OVER THE REGION FROM THE NW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TEMPERATURES BY DAYBREAK WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
UNSEASONABLY COOL LOWER TO MID 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS INLAND FROM
THE BEACHES. ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...LOW TEMPERATURES 70-75F
WILL BE COMMON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BECOME CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES MID TO LATE WEEK. HURRICANE CRISTOBAL WILL STEADILY SHIFT
NORTH ALONG ITS PERIPHERY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...REMAINING WELL
AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION/REDEVELOPMENT OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY. THIS DEEP LAYER RIDGING REGIME WILL SUPPORT AN
UNSEASONABLY DRY PERIOD...AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND LOW MOISTURE
PROFILES LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. HAVE MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WILL THEN INTRODUCE JUST
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BY
FRIDAY...DUE TO A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S ON WEDNESDAY WILL BE RIGHT
AT SEASONAL NORMALS...THEN EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND INTO THE
LOW TO MID 90S FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AS A RESULT OF CLEAR SKIES
AND LIGHT WINDS AT NIGHT...RANGING GENERALLY FROM THE MID TO UPPER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE. A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION TO SUPPORT A MORE
TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN...WITH A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH WED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT AN ENHANCED BUT GRADUALLY RELAXING SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVERNIGHT. NE WINDS 10-20 KT AND SEAS 3-5 FT WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT. ACROSS AMZ374...ONGOING
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS ON TRACK WITH NE WINDS 20-25 KT AND
SEAS 5-8 FT EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SUBSIDE
ON WEDNESDAY...AS CRISTOBAL LIFTS NORTH WELL OFF THE CAROLINA COAST
AND RAPIDLY DEPARTS TO THE NORTHEAST THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL
BE WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA BY WEDNESDAY...ELEVATED
SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL THUS
REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL LATE WEEK THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALLOWING A SOUTHERLY FLOW TO BECOME ESTABLISHED...WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 4 FT.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE INTO
WEDNESDAY AS A RESULT OF SOME ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND LINGERING
2 TO 3 FT 10 SECOND SWELLS BEHIND CRISTOBAL.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS








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