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000
FXUS62 KCHS 311746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF
THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAINS ARE SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WHILE HIGH TIDE HAS
RECEDED...PONDING OF WATER REMAINS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING OCCURS WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER...SO WE HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS GENERAL AREA. THE TEMP CURVE MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMING DUE TO REMAINING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER... POPS...AND WINDS TO REFLECT A WEAKER OR NONEXISTENT
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
RE-EVALUATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR BY 22Z...SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO LOWERING STRATUS.

KSAV...MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WITH KCHS...SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP PRIOR
TO SUNRISE TOMORROW.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT COULD BECOME ONSHORE IF
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION OCCURS TO DEVELOP A SEABREEZE. SEAS ARE CAPPED
AT 5 FEET. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES S OR SW. SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND COULD
PERSIST TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 311746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF
THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAINS ARE SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WHILE HIGH TIDE HAS
RECEDED...PONDING OF WATER REMAINS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING OCCURS WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER...SO WE HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS GENERAL AREA. THE TEMP CURVE MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMING DUE TO REMAINING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER... POPS...AND WINDS TO REFLECT A WEAKER OR NONEXISTENT
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
RE-EVALUATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO
VFR BY 22Z...SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TOMORROW MORNING DUE TO LOWERING STRATUS.

KSAV...MVFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
EARLY THIS EVENING. AS WITH KCHS...SOME MVFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP PRIOR
TO SUNRISE TOMORROW.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AT BOTH TERMINALS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT COULD BECOME ONSHORE IF
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION OCCURS TO DEVELOP A SEABREEZE. SEAS ARE CAPPED
AT 5 FEET. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES S OR SW. SEAS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW
BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND COULD
PERSIST TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1131 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF
THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAINS ARE SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WHILE HIGH TIDE HAS
RECEDED...PONDING OF WATER REMAINS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING OCCURS WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER...SO WE HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS GENERAL AREA. THE TEMP CURVE MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMING DUE TO REMAINING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER... POPS...AND WINDS TO REFLECT A WEAKER OR NONEXISTENT
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
RE-EVALUATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT COULD BECOME ONSHORE IF
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION OCCURS TO DEVELOP A SEABREEZE. SEAS UP TO 6
OR 7 FOOTERS PERSIST OVER AMZ350 AND AMZ374 WATERS WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES S OR SW. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND COULD
PERSIST TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 311531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1131 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF
THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAINS ARE SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WHILE HIGH TIDE HAS
RECEDED...PONDING OF WATER REMAINS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING OCCURS WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER...SO WE HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS GENERAL AREA. THE TEMP CURVE MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMING DUE TO REMAINING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER... POPS...AND WINDS TO REFLECT A WEAKER OR NONEXISTENT
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
RE-EVALUATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT COULD BECOME ONSHORE IF
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION OCCURS TO DEVELOP A SEABREEZE. SEAS UP TO 6
OR 7 FOOTERS PERSIST OVER AMZ350 AND AMZ374 WATERS WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES S OR SW. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND COULD
PERSIST TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1131 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF
THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAINS ARE SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WHILE HIGH TIDE HAS
RECEDED...PONDING OF WATER REMAINS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING OCCURS WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER...SO WE HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS GENERAL AREA. THE TEMP CURVE MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMING DUE TO REMAINING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER... POPS...AND WINDS TO REFLECT A WEAKER OR NONEXISTENT
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
RE-EVALUATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT COULD BECOME ONSHORE IF
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION OCCURS TO DEVELOP A SEABREEZE. SEAS UP TO 6
OR 7 FOOTERS PERSIST OVER AMZ350 AND AMZ374 WATERS WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES S OR SW. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND COULD
PERSIST TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 311531
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1131 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF
THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
RAINS ARE SHIFTING NORTHEAST PAST THE AREA...SO HAVE ADJUSTED
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR EARLIER TRANSITION OUT OF THE AREA. LOCALIZED
FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN THE SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
RAINFALL FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WHILE HIGH TIDE HAS
RECEDED...PONDING OF WATER REMAINS. WE HAVE ADJUSTED WINDS TO
BETTER REFLECT THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW.

THE ENVIRONMENT BEHIND THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE COAST OF GEORGIA IF SUFFICIENT
HEATING OCCURS WITH DIMINISHING SKY COVER...SO WE HAVE UPDATED
POPS TO REFLECT THIS GENERAL AREA. THE TEMP CURVE MAY REQUIRE
ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT TO DELAY WARMING DUE TO REMAINING
CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER...WHICH WILL ALSO REQUIRE ADJUSTMENTS TO
SKY COVER... POPS...AND WINDS TO REFLECT A WEAKER OR NONEXISTENT
SEABREEZE. FOR NOW WE HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
RE-EVALUATION MAY BE REQUIRED WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

KSAV...IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO VFR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS
LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE AREA SHORTLY.
THE FLOW IS OFFSHORE BEHIND THE WAVE...BUT COULD BECOME ONSHORE IF
SUFFICIENT INSOLATION OCCURS TO DEVELOP A SEABREEZE. SEAS UP TO 6
OR 7 FOOTERS PERSIST OVER AMZ350 AND AMZ374 WATERS WHERE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW BECOMES S OR SW. ELEVATED SEAS WILL
DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS EXISTS TODAY AND COULD
PERSIST TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP
AGAIN NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN CANCELED. ANOTHER ONE MAY BE
NEEDED THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR HIGHER THAN NORMAL TIDES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311329
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG COASTAL SC AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE ONGOING SITUATION FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. RAINS
ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL
COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR FLOODING DUE TO RECENT/ONGOING RAINS AND
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE DURING MID MORNING. DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST
TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SOME
AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE ADJUSTED THE TEMP CURVE THIS MORNING
TO DELAY ANY WARMING DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
CONVECTIVE RAINS...BUT HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
WE/LL RE-EVALUATE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO  VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

KSAV...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
LATE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
TODAY. AN ABRUPT WIND CHANGE IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING WITH NORTH
WINDS 5-10 KT AT FT. SUMTER AND SOUTH 15-20 KT AT FOLLY BEACH.
WINDS WILL BE PINCHED NORTH OF THE WAVE WHERE 15-25 KT WILL OCCUR
ON THE AMZ350 WATERS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. 6 OR 7 FOOTERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVER AMZ374 WATERS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES S OR SW AND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATER TODAY.
ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311329
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG COASTAL SC AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES WILL SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY
THIS AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS STILL POSSIBLE GIVEN
THE ONGOING SITUATION FOR CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. RAINS
ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL
COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE
CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...THERE IS A
SIGNIFICANT CONCERN FOR FLOODING DUE TO RECENT/ONGOING RAINS AND
THE ASTRONOMICAL HIGH TIDE DURING MID MORNING. DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST
TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST.
THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SOME
AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE ADJUSTED THE TEMP CURVE THIS MORNING
TO DELAY ANY WARMING DUE TO CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
CONVECTIVE RAINS...BUT HAVE LEFT EARLIER HIGH TEMP FORECAST AS IS.
WE/LL RE-EVALUATE WITH FUTURE UPDATES.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. ALTHOUGH LOW STRATUS/FOG COULD BE A
CONCERN. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA AS SCATTERED
SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES AND A MID LEVEL VORT
AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...LINGERING MVFR CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO  VFR
FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE
TONIGHT.

KSAV...LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS BY
LATE. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE
COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR
TODAY. AN ABRUPT WIND CHANGE IS EVIDENT THIS MORNING WITH NORTH
WINDS 5-10 KT AT FT. SUMTER AND SOUTH 15-20 KT AT FOLLY BEACH.
WINDS WILL BE PINCHED NORTH OF THE WAVE WHERE 15-25 KT WILL OCCUR
ON THE AMZ350 WATERS WITH 5-6 FT SEAS. 6 OR 7 FOOTERS WILL ALSO
CONTINUE OVER AMZ374 WATERS WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ADVISORY REMAINS
IN EFFECT. THE GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FLOW
BECOMES S OR SW AND SPEEDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATER TODAY.
ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT
VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 311146
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CHANNEL IS PEGGED FROM EDISTO
ISLAND TO WEST ASHLEY TO NORTH CHARLESTON. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
7.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE MERGE AREA OF NORTH
CHARLESTON TO SHADOWMOSS. HEAVY RAIN COULD LAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
AND FLOODING IS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED BACK INTO
THE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO GEORGIA.

WITH THE ONGOING PULSE OF EXPANDING RAINFALL AND TRAINING ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WE EXPECT THE EVENT TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
WITH ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
AT LEST MID MORNING.

FAR INLAND AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS FROM THE SW IN THE WAKE OF THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.

WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ONGOING
SITUATION PRE-DAWN. IF RAINS ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE
AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED
FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH AND COASTAL
FLOODING WITHOUT ANY RAINS IS EXPECTED. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT TO NEED TO WATCHING HOUR BY
HOUR NEARING HIGH TIDE. DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH
TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

SINCE I-95 CORRIDOR SEPARATES CATEGORICAL FROM MUCH LESSES CHANCES
TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES
WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE
FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE GEORGIA AS SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE BUMPED HIGH
TEMPS UP MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUNSHINE BREAK OUT.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A MID LEVEL VORT AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR VSBYS IN TORRENTIAL RAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. IFR/MFVR
CIGS MAY FOLLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.

KSAV...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS TOUCHING NEAR 6 FT CLOSER TO 15-20
NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
ALSO CONTINUES TODAY.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME S OR SW AND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 311146
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CHANNEL IS PEGGED FROM EDISTO
ISLAND TO WEST ASHLEY TO NORTH CHARLESTON. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
7.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE MERGE AREA OF NORTH
CHARLESTON TO SHADOWMOSS. HEAVY RAIN COULD LAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
AND FLOODING IS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED BACK INTO
THE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO GEORGIA.

WITH THE ONGOING PULSE OF EXPANDING RAINFALL AND TRAINING ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WE EXPECT THE EVENT TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
WITH ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
AT LEST MID MORNING.

FAR INLAND AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS FROM THE SW IN THE WAKE OF THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.

WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ONGOING
SITUATION PRE-DAWN. IF RAINS ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE
AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED
FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH AND COASTAL
FLOODING WITHOUT ANY RAINS IS EXPECTED. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT TO NEED TO WATCHING HOUR BY
HOUR NEARING HIGH TIDE. DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH
TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

SINCE I-95 CORRIDOR SEPARATES CATEGORICAL FROM MUCH LESSES CHANCES
TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES
WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE
FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE GEORGIA AS SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE BUMPED HIGH
TEMPS UP MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUNSHINE BREAK OUT.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A MID LEVEL VORT AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR VSBYS IN TORRENTIAL RAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. IFR/MFVR
CIGS MAY FOLLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.

KSAV...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS TOUCHING NEAR 6 FT CLOSER TO 15-20
NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
ALSO CONTINUES TODAY.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME S OR SW AND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311146
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CHANNEL IS PEGGED FROM EDISTO
ISLAND TO WEST ASHLEY TO NORTH CHARLESTON. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
7.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE MERGE AREA OF NORTH
CHARLESTON TO SHADOWMOSS. HEAVY RAIN COULD LAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
AND FLOODING IS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED BACK INTO
THE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO GEORGIA.

WITH THE ONGOING PULSE OF EXPANDING RAINFALL AND TRAINING ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WE EXPECT THE EVENT TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
WITH ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
AT LEST MID MORNING.

FAR INLAND AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS FROM THE SW IN THE WAKE OF THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.

WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ONGOING
SITUATION PRE-DAWN. IF RAINS ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE
AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED
FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH AND COASTAL
FLOODING WITHOUT ANY RAINS IS EXPECTED. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT TO NEED TO WATCHING HOUR BY
HOUR NEARING HIGH TIDE. DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH
TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

SINCE I-95 CORRIDOR SEPARATES CATEGORICAL FROM MUCH LESSES CHANCES
TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES
WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE
FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE GEORGIA AS SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE BUMPED HIGH
TEMPS UP MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUNSHINE BREAK OUT.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A MID LEVEL VORT AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR VSBYS IN TORRENTIAL RAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. IFR/MFVR
CIGS MAY FOLLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.

KSAV...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS TOUCHING NEAR 6 FT CLOSER TO 15-20
NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
ALSO CONTINUES TODAY.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME S OR SW AND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 311146
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DEEP MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CHANNEL IS PEGGED FROM EDISTO
ISLAND TO WEST ASHLEY TO NORTH CHARLESTON. RADAR ESTIMATES OVER
7.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN FROM THE MERGE AREA OF NORTH
CHARLESTON TO SHADOWMOSS. HEAVY RAIN COULD LAST ANOTHER 1-2 HOURS
AND FLOODING IS BECOMING SIGNIFICANT. FOG HAS DEVELOPED BACK INTO
THE STABLE AIR ACROSS THE SAVANNAH RIVER INTO GEORGIA.

WITH THE ONGOING PULSE OF EXPANDING RAINFALL AND TRAINING ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WE EXPECT THE EVENT TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
WITH ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. FLOODING WILL CONTINUE
AT LEST MID MORNING.

FAR INLAND AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS FROM THE SW IN THE WAKE OF THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.

WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ONGOING
SITUATION PRE-DAWN. IF RAINS ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE
AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED
FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH AND COASTAL
FLOODING WITHOUT ANY RAINS IS EXPECTED. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT TO NEED TO WATCHING HOUR BY
HOUR NEARING HIGH TIDE. DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH
TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

SINCE I-95 CORRIDOR SEPARATES CATEGORICAL FROM MUCH LESSES CHANCES
TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES
WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE
FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE GEORGIA AS SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE BUMPED HIGH
TEMPS UP MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUNSHINE BREAK OUT.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A MID LEVEL VORT AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...IFR VSBYS IN TORRENTIAL RAIN UNTIL MID MORNING. IFR/MFVR
CIGS MAY FOLLOW FOR A SHORT PERIOD. BECOMING VFR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ONLY SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT.

KSAV...LIFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AND STRATUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS
AFTER MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THERE COULD BE SOME MVFR CIGS LATE TONIGHT AS DEEP
MOISTURE INCREASES ONCE AGAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS TOUCHING NEAR 6 FT CLOSER TO 15-20
NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
ALSO CONTINUES TODAY.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME S OR SW AND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310909
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
509 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLOODING CONCERNS UNDERWAY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 AS RAINFALL EXPANDS
DUE TO THE SHARPENING OF A SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE COAST AND
INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE...ENHANCED BY HIGH PWAT
VALUES AND A RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE AND MID LEVEL OMEGA
ALONG THE TAIL OF THE EJECTING UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE WESTERN
CAROLINAS. IT LOOKS AS IF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS DIMINISHED
AS LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS BETTER SHEAR PARAMETERS MOVING UP INTO
THE PEE DEE REGION.

WITH THE ONGOING PULSE OF EXPANDING RAINFALL AND TRAINING ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WE EXPECT THE EVENT TO PEAK LATER THIS MORNING AND
WITH ONGOING FLOOD ADVISORIES/WARNINGS. LOCALIZED FLOODING DOES
APPEAR TO BE A GOOD BET THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA.

FAR INLAND AREAS LIKELY TO REMAIN DRY WITH SOME PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG
AS DRIER AIR AND SUBSIDENCE ADVECTS FROM THE SW IN THE WAKE OF THE
EJECTING UPPER LOW.

WIDESPREAD RAINS AND FEW TSTMS ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 ARE EXPECTED
TO SHIFT NE AND OFFSHORE LATE MORNING AND CERTAINLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE ONGOING
SITUATION PRE-DAWN. IF RAINS ARE STILL ONGOING AROUND HIGH TIDE
AT MID MORNING...THEN COASTAL COUNTIES ARE IN RISK FOR EXACERBATED
FLOODING AS ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CYCLES ARE ALREADY HIGH AND COASTAL
FLOODING WITHOUT ANY RAINS IS EXPECTED. IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN THAT TO NEED TO WATCHING HOUR BY
HOUR NEARING HIGH TIDE. DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH...THE CONCERN BY HIGH
TIDE APPEARS LESS GIVEN LATEST TIMING PROGS FROM VARIOUS HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL OUTPUTS.

SINCE I-95 CORRIDOR SEPARATES CATEGORICAL FROM MUCH LESSES CHANCES
TO THE WEST THIS MORNING...WE SLOWLY DIMINISH POPS AS A LOW PRES
WAVE LIFTS UP THE COAST. THE ENVIRONMENT AFTER THE LOW WILL BE
FAIRLY BENIGN FOR A LOT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS
SE GEORGIA AS SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING OCCURS. WE BUMPED HIGH
TEMPS UP MANY AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AS SOME SUNSHINE BREAK OUT.

TONIGHT...A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH PARTLY CLOUDY
SKIES FOR MOST AREAS. AN EXCEPTION COULD BE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
AS SCATTERED SHOWERS REDEVELOP AS DEEP MOISTURE INCREASES
AND A MID LEVEL VORT AXIS POKES NORTH FROM FLORIDA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION
FROM THE SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...VORTICITY/ASSOCIATED ENHANCED MOISTURE
TRAPPED WITHIN THE RIDGE WILL DRIFT OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY MIDDAY INTO
THE EVENING. PER 850-500 MB MOISTURE PROGS...HIGHEST PM POP ARE
FOCUSED ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES...BUT THE NORTH/SOUTH POPS GRADIENT
REMAINS SUBTLE. ALSO...GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
TRACK/ORIENTATION OF VORTICITY...IN PART PROVIDED BY THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...AND THIS WILL IMPACT DAY TO DAY POP TRENDS. FOR
NOW...SLIGHTLY GREATER AFTERNOON/EVENING POPS ARE IN PLACE FOR
WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH AS 40-50 PERCENT...AS COMPARED WITH TUESDAY AND
THURSDAY. DESPITE THE PREVALENCE OF CLOUDS...DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S EACH DAY.

EACH NIGHT...POPS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER LAND/AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS...WHILE POPS COULD INCREASE OVER
COASTAL WATERS EACH NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL REMAIN
COMMON EACH NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO ADVANCE INTO THE REGION FROM
THE WEST LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...THIS FEATURE COULD BECOME CUT-OFF
OVER THE SOUTHEAST AS A BLOCKING PATTERN DEVELOPS NEXT WEEKEND
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY
BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH...PRODUCING A PERSISTENT/LONG
FETCH ONSHORE FLOW. BY LATE WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK...A COASTAL
TROUGH COULD DEVELOP. THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS...JUSTIFYING AT LEAST CHANCE POPS DURING THE DAY AND
PERSISTENT NIGHTTIME POPS ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST AND ACROSS
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS...AS WELL SLIGHTLY COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING TAFS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND PINNING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT KSAV LOOKS TO BE THROUGH DAYBREAK AFTER
WHICH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST. VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE REDUCED
DURING SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES. ONCE PRECIP ENDS THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND POSSIBLE
FOG AS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE LINGERS IN LOW-LEVELS AROUND DAWN. WE
MAINTAINED IFR VSBY/CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER MID MORNING.

AT KCHS...PRECIP FLARING UP THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS LATE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER ONCE THE
COASTAL TROUGH TIGHTENS AND A WEAK LOW STARTS MOVING UP THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR MAINLY WITHIN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS TOUCHING NEAR 6 FT CLOSER TO 15-20
NM OFFSHORE. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS
ALSO CONTINUES TODAY.

A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES WILL MOVE UP ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR TODAY
AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW ONSHORE FLOW TO BECOME S OR SW AND SPEEDS
WILL ALSO DIMINISH LATER TODAY. ELEVATED SEAS WILL DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS THE FLOW BECOMES SOMEWHAT VARIABLE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES THROUGH
AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO
WINDS/SEAS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. WINDS WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY THE SEA BREEZE EACH
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND BY THE LAND BREEZE EACH OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNING...MAINLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. SEAS WILL OF
2-4 FT TUESDAY WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT WEDNESDAY THROUGH LATE WEEK.
CONDITIONS COULD BEGIN TO DETERIORATE AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM
THE NORTH NEXT WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST
TUESDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD DEVELOP AGAIN NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA
COAST EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONSHORE FLOW STILL GOING STRONG AND
EXPECTATIONS OF A HIGH TIDE JUST ABOVE 7 FT MLLW AT DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON. A GREATER CONCERN WILL BE WHETHER HEAVY RAINS ARE
STILL ONGOING AROUND 9 OR 10 AM THIS MORNING. IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE
TIME OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO NOON EDT
     TODAY FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310543
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NNE ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING. TO ITS EAST...AN EXPANSIVE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. PWATS RANGE FROM 2-2.2"
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AT ADJACENT BUOYS.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA INITIALLY AND PERHAPS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO THE E OF I-95.

OF INTEREST HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TRAVELING ALONG I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST 90 MINUTES. THE STORM HAS HAD
PERSISTENT ROTATION AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN DORCHESTERCOUNTY.
THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO IS NON- ZERO AS THIS
RECYCLING CELL MOVES NNE INTO A REGION OF 200 SR HELICITY FROM 0-1
KM. THE ONLY THING HOLDING IT BACK WAS WEAK OVERALL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING TAFS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND PINNING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT KSAV LOOKS TO BE THROUGH DAYBREAK AFTER
WHICH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST. VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE REDUCED
DURING SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES. ONCE PRECIP ENDS THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND POSSIBLE
FOG AS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE LINGERS IN LOW-LEVELS AROUND DAWN. WE
MAINTAINED IFR VSBY/CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER MID MORNING.

AT KCHS...PRECIP MAY FLARE UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS LATE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER ONCE THE COASTAL
TROUGH TIGHTENS AND A WEAK LOW STARTS MOVING UP THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS
AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE
THAN NOW FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 310543
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 AM EDT MON AUG 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NNE ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING. TO ITS EAST...AN EXPANSIVE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. PWATS RANGE FROM 2-2.2"
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AT ADJACENT BUOYS.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ALONG I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA INITIALLY AND PERHAPS LATE TONIGHT ALONG THE
UPPER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST TO THE E OF I-95.

OF INTEREST HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT SUPERCELL TRAVELING ALONG I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA DURING THE PAST 90 MINUTES. THE STORM HAS HAD
PERSISTENT ROTATION AND WILL BE MOVING THROUGH NORTHERN DORCHESTERCOUNTY.
THE RISK OF AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO IS NON- ZERO AS THIS
RECYCLING CELL MOVES NNE INTO A REGION OF 200 SR HELICITY FROM 0-1
KM. THE ONLY THING HOLDING IT BACK WAS WEAK OVERALL INSTABILITY
PARAMETERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING TAFS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND PINNING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT KSAV LOOKS TO BE THROUGH DAYBREAK AFTER
WHICH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST. VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE REDUCED
DURING SHOWERS...POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES. ONCE PRECIP ENDS THERE
WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND POSSIBLE
FOG AS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE LINGERS IN LOW-LEVELS AROUND DAWN. WE
MAINTAINED IFR VSBY/CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER MID MORNING.

AT KCHS...PRECIP MAY FLARE UP AGAIN OVERNIGHT THOUGH COVERAGE
WILL PROBABLY BE LESS LATE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER ONCE THE COASTAL
TROUGH TIGHTENS AND A WEAK LOW STARTS MOVING UP THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS
AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE
THAN NOW FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310102
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
902 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NNE ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING. TO ITS EAST...AN EXPANSIVE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. PWATS RANGE FROM 2-2.2"
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AT ADJACENT BUOYS.

AN 80 KT JET STREAK CENTERED AROUND 250 MB IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN NC. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
INLAND SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE AND SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
JET SHIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY DIMINISHING ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL IN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...THEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE GA COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL SC AND THE ADJACENT WATERS LATE
TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...THOUGH MOST
PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT/MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING TAFS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND PINNING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT KSAV LOOKS TO BE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING
AFTER WHICH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST. VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE
REDUCED DURING MODERATE RAIN...POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES. ONCE
PRECIP ENDS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRATUS BUILD-
DOWN AND POSSIBLE FOG AS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE LINGERS IN LOW-LEVELS.
WE ADDED MVFR VSBY/CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER 15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
BUT WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FARTHER TO THE WEST.

AT KCHS...PRECIP MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS LATE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER ONCE THE
COASTAL TROUGH TIGHTENS AND A WEAK LOW STARTS MOVING UP THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS
AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE
THAN NOW FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/JRL
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310102
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
902 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NNE ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING. TO ITS EAST...AN EXPANSIVE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. PWATS RANGE FROM 2-2.2"
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AT ADJACENT BUOYS.

AN 80 KT JET STREAK CENTERED AROUND 250 MB IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN NC. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
INLAND SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE AND SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
JET SHIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY DIMINISHING ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL IN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...THEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE GA COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL SC AND THE ADJACENT WATERS LATE
TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...THOUGH MOST
PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT/MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING TAFS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND PINNING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT KSAV LOOKS TO BE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING
AFTER WHICH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST. VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE
REDUCED DURING MODERATE RAIN...POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES. ONCE
PRECIP ENDS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRATUS BUILD-
DOWN AND POSSIBLE FOG AS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE LINGERS IN LOW-LEVELS.
WE ADDED MVFR VSBY/CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER 15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
BUT WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FARTHER TO THE WEST.

AT KCHS...PRECIP MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS LATE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER ONCE THE
COASTAL TROUGH TIGHTENS AND A WEAK LOW STARTS MOVING UP THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS
AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE
THAN NOW FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/JRL
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 310102
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
902 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH
AND WEAKEN TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A
WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST
OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW IS LIFTING SLOWLY NNE ACROSS
NORTHERN GEORGIA EARLY THIS EVENING. TO ITS EAST...AN EXPANSIVE
PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STREAMING NORTH ACROSS FLORIDA AND
INTO EASTERN GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. PWATS RANGE FROM 2-2.2"
ACROSS COASTAL AREAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC WATERS. AT THE
SURFACE A PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH IS IN PLACE...WITH THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENING JUST OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BASED ON
ENHANCED SURFACE WINDS AT ADJACENT BUOYS.

AN 80 KT JET STREAK CENTERED AROUND 250 MB IS CURRENTLY LIFTING
THROUGH WESTERN NC. UPPER DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS IN PLACE OVER THE LOCAL
FORECAST AREA. THIS...COMBINED WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT ON THE
INLAND SIDE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND AMPLE MOISTURE AND SPEED
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COAST...HAS BEEN SUPPORTING FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD REDEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. AS THE UPPER
JET SHIFTS NE OVERNIGHT...THE GREATEST UPPER LEVEL LIFT WILL ALSO
SHIFT EAST...WITH RAIN CHANCES LIKELY DIMINISHING ACROSS INLAND
SOUTHEAST GA OVERNIGHT. WE MAY SEE A LULL IN RAIN ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA EARLY MON MORNING...THEN AS A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OFF
THE GA COAST AND MOVES NORTHEAST...WE MAY SEE ANOTHER BATCH OF
PRECIP AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL SC AND THE ADJACENT WATERS LATE
TONIGHT.

ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO POPS OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...THOUGH MOST
PRECIP HAS BEEN RELATIVELY LIGHT/MODERATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VERY CHALLENGING TAFS THIS EVENING DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG AND PINNING DOWN THE RAIN CHANCES. BEST CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT KSAV LOOKS TO BE THROUGH EARLY MON MORNING
AFTER WHICH THE BEST FORCING SHIFTS EAST. VSBYS WILL BRIEFLY BE
REDUCED DURING MODERATE RAIN...POTENTIALLY IFR AT TIMES. ONCE
PRECIP ENDS THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR STRATUS BUILD-
DOWN AND POSSIBLE FOG AS EXTENSIVE MOISTURE LINGERS IN LOW-LEVELS.
WE ADDED MVFR VSBY/CEILING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MON MORNING WITH
VFR RETURNING AFTER 15Z. CANNOT RULE OUT IFR CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT
BUT WE THINK THE BEST CHANCE FOR THIS WILL BE FARTHER TO THE WEST.

AT KCHS...PRECIP MAY PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT THOUGH
COVERAGE WILL PROBABLY BE LESS LATE. MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY LATER ONCE THE
COASTAL TROUGH TIGHTENS AND A WEAK LOW STARTS MOVING UP THE COAST.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE LATE MON MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP
CURRENTS AT THE BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS
AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE
THAN NOW FORECAST WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/JRL
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 302008
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN...HELPING TO SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHEAST SC/GA NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MEANS LESSENING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHERN SC WILL REMAIN IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND UPPER JET LONGER SO WE THINK RAIN WILL
BE MOST ABUNDANT THERE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
HAZARD ...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IF IT OCCURS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY WEST OF
SYLVANIA...STATESBORO AND REIDSVILLE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR
ARE LOCATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY POOR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS MORE THAN INDICATED. THE LOWEST CIGS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN THEY COULD BECOME LIFR. RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GREATEST AT KCHS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN GA COAST GIVEN ELEVATED SWELLS AND
ONSHORE WINDS...WITH A MODERATE RISK ALONG THE LOWER SC COAST.

WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE THAN NOW FORECAST
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 302008
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ACROSS GEORGIA WILL MOVE NORTH AND WEAKEN
TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK
INLAND HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR THE GEORGIA/ALABAMA LINE WILL CONTINUE
TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND WEAKEN...HELPING TO SHIFT THE DEEP MOISTURE
OVER SOUTHEAST SC/GA NORTHEASTWARD. THIS MEANS LESSENING RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GA...ALTHOUGH
SOUTHERN SC WILL REMAIN IN THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND AREA OF LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW AND UPPER JET LONGER SO WE THINK RAIN WILL
BE MOST ABUNDANT THERE. THIS IS ALSO WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IS THE MAIN
HAZARD ...WHICH COULD LEAD TO AT LEAST MINOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
IF IT OCCURS NEAR THE COAST DURING THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. WILL
ALSO HAVE TO WATCH FOR SOME STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY WEST OF
SYLVANIA...STATESBORO AND REIDSVILLE...THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WHERE THE BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR
ARE LOCATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...SUB-TROPICAL RIDGING WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA IN WAKE OF
THE MID/UPPER TROUGH LIFTING OFF TO THE DISTANT NORTH/NE. WHILE WE
LOSE MUCH OF THE DYNAMICAL FORCING THAT WE HAD SUNDAY...THERE IS
STILL A DEEP CONNECTION INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND GULF...AS THE WARM
CONVEYOR BELT AND IT/S ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS SOME 2-2.25 INCHES
/SOME 2-3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL/ CONTINUES TO FEED INTO
SECTIONS MAINLY EAST OF I-95 DURING THE MORNING. THIS WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED T-STORMS OVER EASTERN
SECTIONS THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY...ALONG WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL DUE TO TRAINING CELLS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC. WHILE AVERAGE
AMOUNTS WILL BE ANOTHER 1/2 TO 1 INCH...LOCALLY MORE INTENSE AMOUNTS
COULD OCCUR WHERE CELLS PERSIST. THIS COULD ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE BETWEEN 9 AND 11 AM...AND COULD POSE A SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK...ESPECIALLY TO DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND IMMEDIATE
COASTAL SECTIONS.

THE MAIN MOISTURE BELT SHIFTS FURTHER EAST/NE IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR IS ABLE TO PUNCH IN AS HEIGHTS BEGIN TO CLIMB ALOFT. AS A
RESULT OUR COVERAGE AND INTENSITIES OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL
DIMINISH FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE THE SECOND PART OF THE DAY.

TEMPS WILL HOLD IN THE 70S OVER MANY SECTIONS DURING THE MORNING DUE
TO THE EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/RAINFALL...BUT AT LEAST PARTIAL INSOLATION
WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP FOR THE AFTERNOON TO BUMP TEMPS INTO THE MID
AND UPPER 80S FOR MUCH US. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE PARTS OF
CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WHERE THICKER CLOUDS WILL PERSIST
LONGER TO HOLD READINGS TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT...HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO RISE AND EVEN DRIER AIR ALOFT IS
FORECAST TO BUILD DOWN THE VERTICAL COLUMN. WHILE THE MAIN MOISTURE
AXIS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE OFFSHORE IN THE ATLANTIC...IT REMAINS CLOSE
ENOUGH WHERE ANY WESTWARD DEVIATION WOULD BE MORE PROBLEMATIC. FOR
NO WE/LL TRIM BACK POPS WEST TO ISOLATED OR NOTHING...WITH GENERALLY
SCATTERED COVERAGE EAST. WITH THE WET SOILS AND THE DRYING ALOFT
THERE LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR BOTH A STRATUS BUILD-DOWN AND
THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG LATE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...PWATS ARE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS AND
CROSS-SECTIONS DEPICT THE ABSENCE OF MOISTURE IN THE LAYER FROM
ABOUT 700-400 MB. THAT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO CAUSE A DROP
OFF IN AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK SURFACE TROUGHINESS ACROSS THE REGION AND
TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES THIS LOOKS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. INSOLATION WILL BE IN BETTER SUPPLY THAN LATELY
AND WITH THE HIGHER HEIGHTS ALOFT AND AN EXPANSION OF LOW LEVEL
THICKNESS WILL SUPPORT TEMPS MODERATING BACK TO THE UPPER 80S OR
EVEN NEAR 90.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY POOR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH A LOW
CHANCE FOR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND REDUCE
CIGS/VSBYS MORE THAN INDICATED. THE LOWEST CIGS SHOULD OCCUR LATE
TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN THEY COULD BECOME LIFR. RAIN CHANCES
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GREATEST AT KCHS WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODS OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS APPEAR
LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND POSSIBLE LOW STRATUS/FOG. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO
LATE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH...BUT MUCH DEPENDS ON HOW
FAR NORTH THE LOW GETS. WE INDICATE SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20
KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 6 FT BEYOND 20 NM.
THUS...WE HAVE RAISED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR GEORGIA
WATERS FROM 20-60 NM. 6 FT SEAS COULD COME INTO THE NEAR SHORE SC
WATERS AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THERE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY
IN HOW THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD DISRUPT THE WIND
FIELDS. OTHERWISE...MARINERS SHOULD PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS.

MONDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN ACROSS THE WATERS IS SHOWING A LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH INLAND WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH TO THE EAST/NE THAT
EVENTUALLY STARTS TO EXPAND ACROSS THE AREA. BUT THE PINCHING
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES IS SIGNIFICANT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WINDS ON
THE SC WATERS UP TO 20 KT...WHILE A MORE RELAXING GRADIENT DEVELOPS
ON THE GA WATERS TO KEEP WINDS DOWN BELOW 15 KT. IN ADDITION...SEAS
WILL BE AS HIGH AS 5-6 FT...ESPECIALLY ON THE OUTER GA WATERS WHERE
WE HAVE A CONTINUATION OF THE PREVIOUS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. BUT
SHOULD THE PINCHING OVER AMZ350 BE GREATER THAN NOW FORECAST AND/OR
SOME OF THOSE 6 FOOTERS MAKE IT INTO THAT MARINE ZONE WE MIGHT NEED
AN ADVISORY THERE ALSO. MARINERS SHOULD ALSO BE ALERT FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS AND A FEW STRONGER STORMS...REDUCING VISIBILITIES AND
PRODUCING OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS AND LIGHTNING STRIKES.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A MORE SLACKENED GRADIENT WILL PREVAIL
WITH SUBTLE TROUGHINESS INLAND AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW ANY ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS...ALTHOUGH SUB-TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE COULD FROM OUR NEAR
BERMUDA DURING THE LATE WEEK TIME FRAME. SWELLS EMANATING FROM THAT
SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY FRIDAY...PERHAPS BUMPING SEAS BACK UP HIGHER
THAN NOW IN OUR FORECAST.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING ALONG THE NORTHERN GA COAST GIVEN ELEVATED SWELLS AND
ONSHORE WINDS...WITH A MODERATE RISK ALONG THE LOWER SC COAST.

WE/RE SOLIDLY IN THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS AT THE
BEACHES MONDAY GIVEN SMALL SWELLS...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE SWELLS BE WORSE THAN NOW FORECAST
WE COULD BE LOOKING AT A HIGH RISK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE AN ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE
PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS ALONG
THE COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER
SC AND NORTHERN GA COASTS FOR THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE. ALSO OF
NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE
EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND AN
ONSHORE FETCH COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES OF SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. THESE CONDITIONS CAN BE FURTHER AGGRAVATED
SHOULD HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT EDT
     TONIGHT FOR SCZ048>051.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM EDT MONDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33/SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 301732
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO
SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
MID AND UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW/INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR...WHICH COULD
PUSH TOWARD INLAND PORTIONS OF OUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...COOLEST AT THE COAST...BUT SOME PLACES COULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY POOR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS MORE THAN INDICATED. THE LOWEST CIGS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN THEY COULD BECOME LIFR.
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GREATEST AT KCHS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 301732
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO
SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
MID AND UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW/INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR...WHICH COULD
PUSH TOWARD INLAND PORTIONS OF OUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...COOLEST AT THE COAST...BUT SOME PLACES COULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY POOR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS MORE THAN INDICATED. THE LOWEST CIGS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN THEY COULD BECOME LIFR.
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GREATEST AT KCHS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 301732
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
132 PM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO
SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
MID AND UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW/INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR...WHICH COULD
PUSH TOWARD INLAND PORTIONS OF OUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...COOLEST AT THE COAST...BUT SOME PLACES COULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAINLY POOR CONDITIONS THROUGH 18Z MON WITH DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINING OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. EXPECT HIGH CHANCES OF SHOWERS WITH
A LOW CHANCE FOR TSTMS...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS MORE THAN INDICATED. THE LOWEST CIGS SHOULD
OCCUR LATE TONIGHT TOWARD DAYBREAK WHEN THEY COULD BECOME LIFR.
RAIN CHANCES OVERNIGHT SHOULD BE GREATEST AT KCHS WHERE THE BEST
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AND UPPER DIVERGENCE ARE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301508
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO
SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
MID AND UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW/INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR...WHICH COULD
PUSH TOWARD INLAND PORTIONS OF OUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...COOLEST AT THE COAST...BUT SOME PLACES COULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF TSTMS. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON MAY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE WITH
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WHERE DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING.

TONIGHT...RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT KSAV BUT
INCREASE AT KCHS AFTER 08Z AS DEEP MOISTURE PILES INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ENHANCED BY GOOD LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE AND A RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 301508
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1108 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
REGION MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER ALABAMA LIFT NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE WILL RESULT IN A
STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO
SOUTHERN SC AND SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM A
MID AND UPPER JET WILL LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY WILL BE MINIMAL...ALTHOUGH
SOME HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. WILL NEED TO WATCH BACK ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA CLOSER TO
THE UPPER LOW/INCREASED MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES/DRIER MID LEVEL AIR FOR
SOME STRONGER STORMS GIVEN THE STRONG BULK SHEAR...WHICH COULD
PUSH TOWARD INLAND PORTIONS OF OUT SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AREA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S...COOLEST AT THE COAST...BUT SOME PLACES COULD REMAIN IN THE
70S.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF TSTMS. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON MAY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE WITH
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WHERE DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING.

TONIGHT...RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT KSAV BUT
INCREASE AT KCHS AFTER 08Z AS DEEP MOISTURE PILES INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ENHANCED BY GOOD LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE AND A RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 301144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO
A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN AN STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE
2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 40-45 JET MAX AT 500 MB AND
STEADY UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CAUSE AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS.

A COMPLEX MESOSCALE WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENTS LAST NIGHT HAS GIVEN WAY TO RAINS MARCHING NORTH WITH SOME
THUNDER ALONG COASTAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...THE GFS AND RECENTLY
HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUTS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND NSSL ARW MODELS
SUGGEST THERE COULD ALSO BE A LULL IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN TSTMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA/CSRA AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST STEEPENING INLAND LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AT
LEAST 25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND AREAS TO WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE A
WINDOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF VERY WELL DEFINED DRIER SLOT BETWEEN 850 MB AND
500 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION ORGANIZE LATER
TODAY TO THE WEST OF I-95 AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG TO THE W OF I-95.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF TSTMS. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON MAY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE WITH
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WHERE DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING.

TONIGHT...RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT KSAV BUT
INCREASE AT KCHS AFTER 08Z AS DEEP MOISTURE PILES INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ENHANCED BY GOOD LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE AND A RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEK. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...SMALL SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE
AND FULL MOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 301144
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY OPEN INTO
A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS FEATURE
WILL RESULT IN AN STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE
2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT
FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 40-45 JET MAX AT 500 MB AND
STEADY UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS WILL CAUSE AT
LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OF
DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL DOWNPOURS.

A COMPLEX MESOSCALE WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENTS LAST NIGHT HAS GIVEN WAY TO RAINS MARCHING NORTH WITH SOME
THUNDER ALONG COASTAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...THE GFS AND RECENTLY
HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUTS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND NSSL ARW MODELS
SUGGEST THERE COULD ALSO BE A LULL IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN TSTMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA/CSRA AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST STEEPENING INLAND LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AT
LEAST 25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND AREAS TO WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE A
WINDOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF VERY WELL DEFINED DRIER SLOT BETWEEN 850 MB AND
500 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION ORGANIZE LATER
TODAY TO THE WEST OF I-95 AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL...ESPECIALLY ALONG TO THE W OF I-95.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE REMAINS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH TONIGHT WITH
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FAVORING PERIODIC SHOWERS WITH A CHANCE
OF TSTMS. GUIDANCE HINTS THAT MORE ACTIVE PERIODS OF CONVECTION
THIS AFTERNOON MAY LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS INTO MVFR RANGE WITH
POCKETS OF IFR VSBYS POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIER CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS WHERE DOWNPOURS ARE OCCURRING.

TONIGHT...RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AT KSAV BUT
INCREASE AT KCHS AFTER 08Z AS DEEP MOISTURE PILES INTO THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...ENHANCED BY GOOD LOW LEVEL SPEED
CONVERGENCE AND A RIBBON OF UPPER LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEK. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...SMALL SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE
AND FULL MOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...A HIGH RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT TYBEE ISLAND TODAY
GIVEN SWELL PERIODS WERE NOW OVER 10 SECONDS WITH OTHERWISE
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS INCLUDING PERSISTENCE FROM SATURDAY. SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST WILL HAVE A MODERATE RISK THROUGH THIS EVENING...
OTHERWISE AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO
EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-119-
     139-141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300857
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...QUITE A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SE
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COASTAL ENHANCING STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND
PUSHING SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA. A CLUSTER OF INTENSE RAINFALL PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTY BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ALONG AND PERHAPS WEAKENING
JUST A BIT AS IT SHIFTS INTO JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. BY
DAWN...CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES WHILE LIKELY OR
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF I-16 INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY OPEN
INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT ALSO ARRIVES
WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 40-45 JET MAX AT
500 MB AND STEADY UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS.

A COMPLEX MESOSCALE WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENTS LAST NIGHT HAS GIVEN WAY TO RAINS MARCHING NORTH WITH SOME
THUNDER ALONG COASTAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...THE GFS AND RECENTLY
HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUTS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND NSSL ARW MODELS
SUGGEST THERE COULD ALSO BE A LULL IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN TSTMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA/CSRA AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST STEEPENING INLAND LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AT
LEAST 25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND AREAS TO WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE A
WINDOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF VERY WELL DEFINED DRIER SLOT BETWEEN 850 MB AND
500 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION ORGANIZE LATER
TODAY TO THE WEST OF I-95 AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS A SWING TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE DAWN AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFTING PROCESSES
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAINS AND/OR TSTMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEK. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...SMALL SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE
AND FULL MOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY BE UPGRADED TO
HIGH RISK AT TYBEE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300857
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...QUITE A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SE
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COASTAL ENHANCING STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND
PUSHING SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA. A CLUSTER OF INTENSE RAINFALL PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTY BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ALONG AND PERHAPS WEAKENING
JUST A BIT AS IT SHIFTS INTO JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. BY
DAWN...CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES WHILE LIKELY OR
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF I-16 INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY OPEN
INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT ALSO ARRIVES
WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 40-45 JET MAX AT
500 MB AND STEADY UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS.

A COMPLEX MESOSCALE WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENTS LAST NIGHT HAS GIVEN WAY TO RAINS MARCHING NORTH WITH SOME
THUNDER ALONG COASTAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...THE GFS AND RECENTLY
HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUTS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND NSSL ARW MODELS
SUGGEST THERE COULD ALSO BE A LULL IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN TSTMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA/CSRA AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST STEEPENING INLAND LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AT
LEAST 25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND AREAS TO WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE A
WINDOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF VERY WELL DEFINED DRIER SLOT BETWEEN 850 MB AND
500 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION ORGANIZE LATER
TODAY TO THE WEST OF I-95 AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS A SWING TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE DAWN AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFTING PROCESSES
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAINS AND/OR TSTMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEK. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...SMALL SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE
AND FULL MOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY BE UPGRADED TO
HIGH RISK AT TYBEE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300857
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
457 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE...A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MEANDER OVER THE
SOUTHEAST MOST OF THIS WEEK. LATE THIS WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND...LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ATLANTIC WHILE WEAK INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE EXPANDS SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...QUITE A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE HAS BEEN ONGOING ACROSS SE
GEORGIA OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS VEERED TO SE OFF THE GEORGIA
COASTAL ENHANCING STRONG CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SAVANNAH RIVER AND
PUSHING SHOWERS AND TSTMS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN AND COASTAL SOUTH
CAROLINA. A CLUSTER OF INTENSE RAINFALL PASSING THROUGH EASTERN
CHATHAM COUNTY BUT IT SHOULD MOVE ALONG AND PERHAPS WEAKENING
JUST A BIT AS IT SHIFTS INTO JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES. BY
DAWN...CHANCE POPS REACHING INTO OUR FAR NW ZONES WHILE LIKELY OR
EVEN HIGHER CHANCES SOUTH OF I-16 INTO COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA.

THROUGH TONIGHT...AN ANOMALOUS MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY OPEN
INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN STEADY INFLUX OF DEEP MOISTURE WITH
PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT ALSO ARRIVES
WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 40-45 JET MAX AT
500 MB AND STEADY UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD. THIS
WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF RAINFALL
WITH POCKETS OF DEEP CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL
DOWNPOURS.

A COMPLEX MESOSCALE WITH UNSEASONABLY STRONG LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
GRADIENTS LAST NIGHT HAS GIVEN WAY TO RAINS MARCHING NORTH WITH SOME
THUNDER ALONG COASTAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. THERE SHOULD BE A GOOD
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...THE GFS AND RECENTLY
HIGH RESOLUTION OUTPUTS FROM BOTH THE HRRR AND NSSL ARW MODELS
SUGGEST THERE COULD ALSO BE A LULL IN HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL NORTH
OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS AFTERNOON BETWEEN TSTMS DEVELOPING
AHEAD OF THE EJECTING LOW ACROSS EAST CENTRAL GEORGIA/CSRA AND
COASTAL CONVERGENCE CONTINUING TO THE SOUTH OF THE SAVANNAH
RIVER. MODELS SUGGEST STEEPENING INLAND LAPSE RATES ALONG WITH AT
LEAST 25 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR ACROSS OUR INLAND ZONES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. INLAND AREAS TO WEST OF I-95 COULD SEE A
WINDOW FOR ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE TSTMS AS UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INCREASES AHEAD OF VERY WELL DEFINED DRIER SLOT BETWEEN 850 MB AND
500 MB. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE CONVECTION ORGANIZE LATER
TODAY TO THE WEST OF I-95 AND WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

TONIGHT...CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES AS THE UPPER LOW EJECTS BY AND
DRYING MID LEVELS EVENTUALLY SHUT DOWN RAINS ALONG AND WEST OF
I-95 BUT ATTENTION TURNS TO HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL
ENHANCE LIFT WHILE DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ENHANCES CONVECTIVE RAINS. WE RAMP POPS UP
TO CATEGORICAL ALONG THE CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA COAST LATE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...PERHAPS ISOLATED EXCESSIVE RAINFALL MAY
OCCUR ALONG CHARLESTON COUNTY IF THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE PANS
OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY MORNING...THE UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED FORCING FOR ASCENT
WILL HAVE ADVANCED NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER...FOCUSED
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF PWATS 2
TO 2.25 INCHES WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTH
CAROLINA COUNTIES. GIVEN ABOVE-AVERAGE MODEL AGREEMENT REGARDING
THIS SCENARIO...MONDAY MORNING FEATURES LIKELY/CATEGORICAL POPS
ALONG/EAST OF I-95...HIGHEST INTO SC COUNTIES INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. GIVEN ELEVATED PWATS AND HIGH
PRECIPITATION EFFICIENCY...INTRODUCED A MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN INTO
AREAS ALONG/EAST OF I-95. ALSO...AN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE WILL OCCUR
BETWEEN 900 AND 1100 AM...AND IF/WHERE HEAVY RAIN IS FALLING WITHIN
COASTAL COUNTIES LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS POTENTIAL
INCLUDED DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POPS BECOME LESS WELL DEFINED DUE TO THE UNKNOWN
IMPACT OF MORNING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR
SUBTLE DRYING TO OCCUR ACROSS NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES. EARLY
AFTERNOON POPS ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE
INLAND.

OTHERWISE...DUE TO CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...MONDAY HIGH TEMPS IN
THE LOWER/MID 80S SHOULD BE COMMON...SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST.

MONDAY NIGHT...A POOL OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN FOCUSED NEAR THE
COAST AND OVER COASTAL WATERS. INLAND POPS DECREASE FROM CHANCE TO
SLIGHT CHANCE WITH TIME INLAND...WHILE POPS NEAR THE COAST REMAIN IN
THE 50-60 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL
COUNTIES. LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE NEAR THE
COAST.

THE SCENARIO APPEARS SIMILAR TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHILE
SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR COULD INFILTRATE NORTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES...A
POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED BENEATH A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES AND ACROSS ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. POPS ARE DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY...WITH
HIGHEST/LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES. HIGH PWATS AND WEAK
STEERING FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPS WILL DEPEND ON CLOUD/PRECIPITATION COVERAGE.
HIGHS IN THE MID 80S WILL REMAIN COMMON BOTH DAYS. HOWEVER...
TEMPERATURES COULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER 80S IF/WHERE CLOUDS/SHOWERS
PERSIST...WHILE TEMPERATURES COULD RECOVER INTO THE UPPER 80S WHERE
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE IS REDUCED...ESPECIALLY INLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UNTIL LATE WEEK...SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WILL PERSIST BENEATH AN UPPER
RIDGE TO SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MIDDAY/EVENING HOURS AND ALONG THE COAST/OVER ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS. LATE THIS
WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST NEAR 37N/70W...AN
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PROMOTE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS...AND THIS
SYSTEM WILL EVOLVE INTO DEEP LAYERED/CUT-OFF LOW PRESSURE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRIVE THE UPPER RIDGE WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION...BUT THE
IMPACTS ON SENSIBLE WEATHER REMAIN UNCERTAIN. IF THE ATLANTIC TROUGH
PHASES WITH THE UPPER LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST...AN UNSETTLED
PATTERN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...IF THE SYSTEMS
REMAIN SEPARATE...SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THUS...POPS REMAIN PRETTY CLOSE TO
NORMAL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD...AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES REMAIN BELOW 90F THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY FOR WARMER TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
90S COULD INCREASE LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF DRIER
AIR CIRCULATES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS A SWING TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS WITH ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND STORMS BEFORE DAWN AT
BOTH KSAV AND KCHS. SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS NUMEROUS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MOISTURE AND DYNAMIC LIFTING PROCESSES
RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAINS AND/OR TSTMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THURSDAY...PERIODS OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGH EARLY WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR SHOULD BECOME MORE COMMON MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS GEORGIA WATERS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...PERHAPS 15-20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FROM
GRAYS REEF AND BEYOND. THIS COULD ASSIST SEAS BUILDING TO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER GEORGIA WATERS FROM 20-60 NM LATER
TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD RAINS AND OCCASIONAL TSTMS OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT WILL LOWER VSBYS BELOW 3 NM AT TIMES AND PRODUCE
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT. WE HAVE HELD OFF ON
ISSUING AN SCA FOR OUTER WATERS JUST YET UNTIL WE GET A BETTER
HANDLE ON CONVECTION PATTERNS WHICH MAY DISRUPT WINDS BUT
LOCALLY ENHANCE WAVES.

PERSISTENT SE WINDS COULD USHER A 6 FT SWELL INTO GA COASTAL WATERS
BEYOND 20-40 NM MONDAY. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS UNCERTAIN...THUS WILL
NOT YET RAISE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. OTHERWISE...SOUTHEAST WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT 15-20 KT AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 3-5 FT
THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...A WEAKENING ONSHORE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER WINDS...FREQUENTLY 10 KT OR
LESS...AND SEAS SHOULD SUBSIDE TO 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MEANWHILE...SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN COMMON OVER COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS WEEK. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND POOR VISIBILITY IN VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS
AND MARINE WEATHER STATEMENTS.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
AT LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE
WINDS...SMALL SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE
AND FULL MOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS AT AREA BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS MAY BE UPGRADED TO
HIGH RISK AT TYBEE ISLAND LATER THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE AN
ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY THIS WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING
HIGH TIDE TODAY...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL
BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE
SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL
COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN
SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...LINGERING ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE OF ADDITIONAL CYCLES
OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITH THE NIGHTTIME HIGH
TIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. ALSO OF CONCERN...
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS
WEEK...AND LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IF HEAVY RAIN
FALLS AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY
MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY ONGOING
FORECAST...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE APPLIED ON THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS A SWING TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS SHOWERS
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MOIST AND DYNAMIC LIFTING PROCESSES
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAINS AND/OR TSTMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH
AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN
COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR
DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE. LATEST RADAR TRENDS
ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SUPPORT SHORT
TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND
THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND POSSIBLY
MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY ONGOING
FORECAST...SO VERY FEW CHANGES WERE APPLIED ON THE MIDNIGHT
UPDATE.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL PICTURE IS A SWING TO GRADUALLY DETERIORATING
CONDITIONS AFTER SUNRISE WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES AS SHOWERS
AND BECOME MORE NUMEROUS BY LATE MORNING...CONTINUING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS DEEP MOIST AND DYNAMIC LIFTING PROCESSES
RESULT IN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE. PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING BOUTS OF HEAVIER RAINS AND/OR TSTMS TODAY...
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDDAY TO EARLY EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 KT WILL PREVAIL WITH SEAS 4 FT OR
LESS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH
AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY
RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN
COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR
DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300200
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY
ONGOING FORECAST...SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CANCELLED
AS WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 7.0 AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND
9.2 AT FORT PULASKI.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300200
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1000 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY
ONGOING FORECAST...SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THIS EVENING HAS BEEN CANCELLED
AS WATER LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 7.0 AT DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND
9.2 AT FORT PULASKI.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY
ONGOING FORECAST...SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON TOPPED OUT AT 7.26...WITH FORT
PULASKI REACHING 9.30. WATER LEVELS STILL ABOVE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY WELL
BEFORE THE 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY
ONGOING FORECAST...SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON TOPPED OUT AT 7.26...WITH FORT
PULASKI REACHING 9.30. WATER LEVELS STILL ABOVE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY WELL
BEFORE THE 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY
ONGOING FORECAST...SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON TOPPED OUT AT 7.26...WITH FORT
PULASKI REACHING 9.30. WATER LEVELS STILL ABOVE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY WELL
BEFORE THE 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 300150
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
950 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...AREA OF RAIN/SHOWERS ACROSS INTERIOR GEORGIA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE BY LATE EVENING.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS ACROSS FLORIDA AND OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
SUPPORT SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOR AN INCREASE IN CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT STARTING IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS AND THEN SPREADING MAINLY NORTH OVER THE WATERS AND
POSSIBLY MOVING/DEVELOPING INLAND. ALL THIS COVERED WELL BY
ONGOING FORECAST...SO ONLY COSMETIC CHANGES NEEDED.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON TOPPED OUT AT 7.26...WITH FORT
PULASKI REACHING 9.30. WATER LEVELS STILL ABOVE COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY LEVELS...BUT EXPECT TO BE ABLE TO DROP THE ADVISORY WELL
BEFORE THE 11 PM EXPIRATION TIME.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 292336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
736 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DISSIPATING BY 03Z OR 04Z AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ON THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE COAST. WE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
SALTWATER INUNDATION ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA COASTS DURING THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 292336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
736 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DISSIPATING BY 03Z OR 04Z AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ON THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE COAST. WE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
SALTWATER INUNDATION ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA COASTS DURING THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292336
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
736 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THIS UPDATE...TRIED TO ACCOUNT FOR WEAKENING COMPLEX OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS APPROACHING INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SEVERAL
MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW THIS AREA DISSIPATING BY 03Z OR 04Z AS IT
MOVES NORTH AND THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVE RECENT WEAKENING TREND...TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ON THIS UPDATE. OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. TIMING
IS UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH AFT 02Z AT KSAV AND AFTER 08Z
AT KCHS THROUGH LATE MORNING WHEN THE THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL
BE A BETTER THREAT FOR SHOWERS. EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE
THUNDERSTORMS...FOR NOW JUST WENT WITH A PREVAILING 6SM IN
SHOWERS.

GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY THE NAM IS SHOWING IFR CIGS DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT AND PERSISTING AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR MUCH OF SUNDAY.
BASED ON UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS TODAY AND THAT THE MODE OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL MAINLY BE CONVECTIVE...HAVE A HARD TIME SEEING
IFR OR NEAR IFR CONDITIONS ALL DAY AT BOTH TERMINALS. GENERALLY
FOLLOWED GFS GUIDANCE...BUT CERTAINLY WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE A PERIOD OR TWO OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL NOT TRY TO PIN DOWN THE TIMING OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS OR SUB VFR CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL
OCCUR THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE COAST. WE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
SALTWATER INUNDATION ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA COASTS DURING THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ117-
     119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/MTE
MARINE...33/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 292010
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
410 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH
TONIGHT BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
WILL PASS INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND
INTO THE REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE
REMNANTS OF ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR
MEANDER OVER OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST TO THE NORTH WHILE A STALLED
FRONT WILL LINGER OVER OR NEAR THE AREA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TO
THE WEST AND THUS RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE HIGHER THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF DAY. CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE LOW TO START THE NIGHT
BEFORE INCREASING GENERALLY FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS
SHORTWAVE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW ROTATES NORTHWARD INTO
THE AREA. COULD SEE A FEW WEAK THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY
INCREASES...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY NEAR THE COAST AND OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE THE BEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DEEPER MOISTURE ARE
ANTICIPATED. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE FROM ABOUT 70 INLAND TO MID
70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WE/RE IN STORE FOR A WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN DURING THE
EARLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...WITH A DEEP AND RICH FEED OF
TROPICAL-LIKE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND ATLANTIC OCEAN.
WHILE THIS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE AUGUST...IT
WILL RESULT IN THE POSSIBILITY FOR AT LEAST LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
MAYBE EVEN A FLASH FLOOD CONCERN IN PARTS OF THE CWFA.

FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...A MID AND UPPER LOW OVER THE WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AT DAYBREAK SUNDAY WILL LIFT NE AND GRADUALLY
OPENS INTO A WAVE AS IT HEADS TOWARD THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED/FOCUSED INFLUX OF CONSIDERABLE
MOISTURE WITH PWATS ABOVE 2 INCHES INTO SOUTHERN SC AND SE GA. IT
ALSO ARRIVES WITH DECENT FORCING FOR ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO A 55-65
JET MAX AND IT/S RESULTING UPPER DIVERGENCE AS IT PASSES OVERHEAD.
THIS WILL CAUSE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES EASTERN ZONES WHERE WE
FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT. GIVEN
THESE FACTORS...UPPER DYNAMICS AND AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL
SUPPORT DIURNALLY-DRIVEN RAINS HEAVY AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE REGION. RAIN CHANCE WILL STEADILY DIMINISH
INLAND AFTER DARK...WHILE CONTINUED CONVERGENCE AND AN INFLUX OF
MOISTURE RESULTS IN AT LEAST SCATTERED POPS NEARER THE COAST. THE
DAILY TEMP CURVE WILL BE INTERRUPTED BY RAIN-COOLED AIR...AND WE CAN
EXPECT THAT AT LEAST SOME SECTIONS WILL STRUGGLE TO HIT ABOVE 80F
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS WHERE PRECIPITATION LINGERS FOR AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...IN WAKE OF THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE TROUGH
AN EXPANDING SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE SE.
THIS LARGE SCALE SYSTEM WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR STEERING WHATEVER IS
LEFT OF ERIKA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT HEADS TO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. WHILE THERE ARE NO
SIGNIFICANT DYNAMICS THAT ARE NOTED ALOFT...WE STILL ANTICIPATE A
SOLID BAND OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT FROM THE
GULF AND ATLANTIC. THIS WILL GENERATE AT LEAST SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED T-STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST
PROBABILITIES SOUTH AND EAST WHERE AGAIN WE FIND THE BEST LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE. SIMILAR TO RECENT DAYS WHERE
PROLONGED RAINS PERSIST IT WILL MESS UP THE DIURNAL CURVE. AN
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE AND A WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL PROMOTE ERRATIC
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND EVEN AN INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING
ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
BUT A WEAKER SYSTEM COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW
DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL
POPS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH
CHANCE POPS ARE INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO
NORMAL...AND 90F TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD.
ASIDE FROM INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE
DIRECTLY IMPACTED BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS HIGH REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT
ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH...ALTHOUGH TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE VFR BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PERIODIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL OCCUR
THROUGH EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH OCCASIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
MAYBE DUE TO LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON
THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA...BUT AT LEAST SPORADIC FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS CAN OCCUR
IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A STATIONARY FRONT JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS WILL
LIKELY MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LEADING TO MORE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS LATE...ESPECIALLY OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT THIS EVENING STEADY NORTHEAST WINDS UP TO 20 KT WILL
PREVAIL BUT WITH SEAS 4 FT OR LESS WE DON`T ANTICIPATE REACHING
ADVISORY CONDITIONS. MARINERS SHOULD BE ADVISED THAT SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT...WITH
GUSTY WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SUNDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER CONTROL OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE...WITH MAYBE A LITTLE ENHANCEMENT FROM THE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR EASTERLY WINDS AT OR BELOW 15
KT...WITH A MIX OF SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND-DRIVEN WAVES TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT SEAS OF 2-4 FT.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE...WHILE THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA IS STEERED INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY IN THE WEEK.
WHATEVER FORM IT/S IN WILL LIKELY THEN HEAD INTO THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE...SOUTHERN GEORGIA AND/OR SOUTHERN ALABAMA DURING THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHILE THERE WILL BE OCCASIONAL SURGES OF
WINDS...THEY LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 15 OR 20 KT...WITH SEAS CAPPED AT
OR UNDER 5 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR EACH OF THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AND NIGHTS.
SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAINS
REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES AND WIND GUSTS UP TO AT
LEAST 30 KT WITH BRIEFLY HIGHER SEAS. REMEMBER TO MONITOR OUR
FORECASTS AND YOUR NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

RIP CURRENTS...WE RECEIVED REPORTS OF NUMEROUS RIP CURRENTS FROM
TYBEE BEACH SATURDAY AFTERNOON...SOME AS LARGE AS 30 YARDS WIDE BY
80 YARDS OUT. LIFEGUARDS ARE DIRECTING PEOPLE AWAY FROM REGION WHERE
THE RIP ARE OCCURRING. THUS A CONTINUATION OF A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING.

CONDITIONS WON/T BE MUCH DIFFERENT SUNDAY WITH ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM THE PERIGEE AND FULL MOON.
THIS WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES.

WHILE WE START TO LOSE THE ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AS WE GO THROUGH
THE WEEK...THERE IS STILL AN ONSHORE WIND COMPONENT AND POSSIBLE
SMALL SWELLS TO GENERATE A POSSIBLE ELEVATED RISK DURING AT LEAST THE
EARLY PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN SPRING
TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS
ALONG THE COAST. WE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR MINOR
SALTWATER INUNDATION ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTHERN
GEORGIA COASTS DURING THIS EVENING/S HIGH TIDE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND/OR DOWNTOWN SAVANNAH AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE...MORE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     GAZ117-119-139-141.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...33/RJB
MARINE...33/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
212 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT POP/TEMP TRENDS. LARGE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AND THUS LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW- LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
80S INLAND WHERE WE THINK THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ...AND
ONLY LOW/MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE COAST GIVEN THE HIGHER
RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE AND ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST
NORTHWARD AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD
AFTER 2 AM. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE. THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING
DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH...ALTHOUGH TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE VFR BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291812
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
212 PM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT POP/TEMP TRENDS. LARGE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AND THUS LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW- LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...LIKELY REACHING THE MID/UPPER
80S INLAND WHERE WE THINK THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ...AND
ONLY LOW/MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE COAST GIVEN THE HIGHER
RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE AND ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST
NORTHWARD AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD
AFTER 2 AM. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE. THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING
DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED DEEP MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM AN UPPER LOW
TO THE WEST AND AN UPPER JET WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES ABOVE NORMAL
MOST OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...TIMING IS
UNCERTAIN SO ADDRESSED WITH VCSH...ALTHOUGH TS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY LATE IN THE PERIOD. CIGS WILL MOSTLY BE VFR BUT
CAN/T RULE OUT SOME MVFR AT TIMES...ESPECIALLY LATE TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU... SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291517
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT POP/TEMP TRENDS. LARGE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AND THUS LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW- LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 80S
INLAND WHERE WE THINK THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ...AND ONLY
MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE COAST GIVEN THE HIGHER
RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE AND ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST
NORTHWARD AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD
AFTER 2 AM. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE. THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING
DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...SHOWERS WILL BE AT OR NEAR THE TERM MUCH OF THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS. CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT TIMING/COVERAGE SUGGEST
VCSH PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER AREAS.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WE HAVE STARTED A TREND WITH AN INTRODUCTION TO
VCSH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291517
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1117 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
ONCE TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER
OR CLOSE TO THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...ALTHOUGH TRIED
TO ACCOUNT FOR RECENT POP/TEMP TRENDS. LARGE MOISTURE GRADIENT
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEEPEST MOISTURE
AND THUS BEST RAIN CHANCES NEAR THE COAST...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF
EDISTO BEACH. SOME OF THE RAIN COULD BE HEAVY AND THUS LOCALIZED
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW- LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS WILL BE
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON CLOUD/RAIN COVERAGE...LIKELY REACHING THE UPPER 80S
INLAND WHERE WE THINK THE LOWEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ...AND ONLY
MID 80S SOUTH AND EAST TOWARD THE COAST GIVEN THE HIGHER
RAIN/CLOUD COVERAGE AND ONSHORE FLOW.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST
NORTHWARD AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD
AFTER 2 AM. A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS
TO INCREASE AS THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA
PANHANDLE LATE. THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING
DAWN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE
SOME DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...SHOWERS WILL BE AT OR NEAR THE TERM MUCH OF THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WITH MAINLY NO WORSE THAN MVFR CONDS. CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT BUT TIMING/COVERAGE SUGGEST
VCSH PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO GO FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER AREAS.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WE HAVE STARTED A TREND WITH AN INTRODUCTION TO
VCSH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD
OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...WE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
MCINTOSH COUNTY GEORGIA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE SUNRISE UPDATE. STRONG LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED
ALONG SOUTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SHOULD
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS LAND AREAS BEGIN TO WARM.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TODAY WHILE A WEAK WEDGED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE GEORGIA DESPITE
ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS ON TAP GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION RAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER THIS MORNING. AS
PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER 2 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. WE HAVE
SOLID LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY AND INCLUDED SOUTHERN
JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY POP SCHEME.

DIMINISHING PCPN RETURNS NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ALONG ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS...WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...POPS IN THE 20/30
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST NORTHWARD
AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD AFTER 2 AM.
A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING DAWN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH TODAY WITH AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
HAVE NOW INCLUDED THERE A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT TIMING/COVERAGE SUGGEST VCSH PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO
GO FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER AREAS.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WE HAVE STARTED A TREND WITH AN INTRODUCTION TO
VCSH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...WE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
MCINTOSH COUNTY GEORGIA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE SUNRISE UPDATE. STRONG LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED
ALONG SOUTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SHOULD
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS LAND AREAS BEGIN TO WARM.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TODAY WHILE A WEAK WEDGED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE GEORGIA DESPITE
ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS ON TAP GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION RAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER THIS MORNING. AS
PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER 2 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. WE HAVE
SOLID LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY AND INCLUDED SOUTHERN
JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY POP SCHEME.

DIMINISHING PCPN RETURNS NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ALONG ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS...WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...POPS IN THE 20/30
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST NORTHWARD
AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD AFTER 2 AM.
A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING DAWN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH TODAY WITH AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
HAVE NOW INCLUDED THERE A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT TIMING/COVERAGE SUGGEST VCSH PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO
GO FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER AREAS.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WE HAVE STARTED A TREND WITH AN INTRODUCTION TO
VCSH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 291152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...WE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
MCINTOSH COUNTY GEORGIA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE SUNRISE UPDATE. STRONG LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED
ALONG SOUTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SHOULD
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS LAND AREAS BEGIN TO WARM.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TODAY WHILE A WEAK WEDGED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE GEORGIA DESPITE
ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS ON TAP GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION RAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER THIS MORNING. AS
PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER 2 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. WE HAVE
SOLID LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY AND INCLUDED SOUTHERN
JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY POP SCHEME.

DIMINISHING PCPN RETURNS NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ALONG ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS...WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...POPS IN THE 20/30
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST NORTHWARD
AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD AFTER 2 AM.
A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING DAWN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH TODAY WITH AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
HAVE NOW INCLUDED THERE A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT TIMING/COVERAGE SUGGEST VCSH PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO
GO FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER AREAS.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WE HAVE STARTED A TREND WITH AN INTRODUCTION TO
VCSH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 291152
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
752 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...WE RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL THIS MORNING ACROSS
MCINTOSH COUNTY GEORGIA...OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO
THE SUNRISE UPDATE. STRONG LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE FOCUSED
ALONG SOUTH COASTAL GEORGIA THROUGH AT LEAST MID MORNING SHOULD
WEAKEN BY LATE MORNING AS LAND AREAS BEGIN TO WARM.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TODAY WHILE A WEAK WEDGED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE GEORGIA DESPITE
ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS ON TAP GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION RAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER THIS MORNING. AS
PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER 2 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY DURING
DIURNAL HEATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. WE HAVE
SOLID LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY AND INCLUDED SOUTHERN
JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY POP SCHEME.

DIMINISHING PCPN RETURNS NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ALONG ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS...WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...POPS IN THE 20/30
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST NORTHWARD
AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD AFTER 2 AM.
A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING DAWN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH TODAY WITH AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
HAVE NOW INCLUDED THERE A PREVAILING PERIOD OF SHOWERS FROM
MIDDAY INTO LATE AFTERNOON. CONTINUED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT BUT TIMING/COVERAGE SUGGEST VCSH PROBABLY THE BEST WAY TO
GO FOR NOW. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN SHOWER AREAS.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD THROUGH THIS EVENING...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. WHILE SHOWER CHANCES DO INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...WE HAVE STARTED A TREND WITH AN INTRODUCTION TO
VCSH.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION
CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH LAPS ANALYSIS AND RAP13 DATA INDICATES A NOSE OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY NOSING IN FROM THE ATLC ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD INCREASED IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER NORTH OF I-16 INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON AREA.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TODAY WHILE A WEAK WEDGED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE GEORGIA DESPITE
ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS ON TAP GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION RAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER THIS MORNING. AS
PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER 2 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON DURING
DIURNAL HEATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. WE HAVE
SOLID LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY AND INCLUDED SOUTHERN
JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY POP SCHEME.

DIMINISHING PCPN RETURNS NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ALONG ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS...WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...POPS IN THE 20/30
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST NORTHWARD
AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD AFTER 2 AM.
A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING DAWN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLC LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. WE LOWERED CIGS
TO BKN035 TO TREND GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHOWERS IN.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK
FOR ANY TSRA RISK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA WILL LIFT NORTH TONIGHT
BUT GRADUALLY DISSIPATE LATE. UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS
INLAND SUNDAY...THEN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE
REGION MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MID TO LATE WEEK...THE REMNANTS OF
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA COULD DRIFT NORTHEAST OR MEANDER OVER OR
CLOSE TO THE REGION. REFER TO THE LATEST ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED
BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A CLOSED UPPER LOW ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST REGION
CONTINUES TO PUMP DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO
INTO SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING.
BOTH LAPS ANALYSIS AND RAP13 DATA INDICATES A NOSE OF SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY NOSING IN FROM THE ATLC ALONG AND TO THE SOUTH
OF I-16. SCATTERED SHOWERS HAD INCREASED IN THIS REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK AS A WEAK UPPER SHORT WAVE LIFTS NORTH
ACROSS THE AREA. MAINLY DRY WEATHER NORTH OF I-16 INCLUDING THE
CHARLESTON AREA.

DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE ADVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SE GEORGIA
TODAY WHILE A WEAK WEDGED SURFACE PATTERN PERSISTS TO THE NORTH
ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTH CAROLINA. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS SE GEORGIA DESPITE
ONLY MODEST THERMODYNAMICS ON TAP GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION RAINS CLOSE TO THE COAST COULD REMAIN A
SHALLOW WARM-RAIN PROCESS WITH NOT MUCH THUNDER THIS MORNING. AS
PWATS REMAIN JUST OVER 2 INCHES...THERE IS A DECENT POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND SOME TSTM ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON DURING
DIURNAL HEATING JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ACROSS SE GEORGIA. WE HAVE
SOLID LIKELY POPS ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY AND INCLUDED SOUTHERN
JASPER AND BEAUFORT COUNTIES IN THE LIKELY POP SCHEME.

DIMINISHING PCPN RETURNS NORTHWARD AND IT SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY DRY
ALONG ZONES BORDERING THE CSRA AND SE MIDLANDS...WE HAVE ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS IN THIS REGION. ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY SEA BREEZE...
WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS CROP UP THIS AFTERNOON...POPS IN THE 20/30
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON LOFTING DEEP MOIST NORTHWARD
AND WE ANTICIPATE SHOWER CHANCES TO INCREASE NORTHWARD AFTER 2 AM.
A FEW TSTMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE AS INSTABILITY APPEARS TO INCREASE AS
THE CORE OF THE MID LEVEL LOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST
REGION SHIFTS NE INTO ALABAMA AND THE NW FLORIDA PANHANDLE LATE.
THIS SHOULD ENSURE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES NEARING DAWN. LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PROGS SUGGEST THERE COULD BE SOME
DOWNPOURS ALONG COASTAL ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL OPEN AND EJECT NORTHEAST ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS. SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THIS FEATURE WILL PROMOTE
INCREASED/FOCUSED LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WILL DRAW A
PLUME OF DEEP-LAYERED MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES
INTO THE REGION. MEANWHILE...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT AS DEPICTED
BY 500-300 MB Q VECTOR CONVERGENCE AND 400-200 MB DIVERGENCE WILL
CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...AT LEAST NUMEROUS
SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY...AND
LIKELY POPS ARE JUSTIFIED AT SOME POINT ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION.
LATER SUNDAY...DRY SLOTTING COULD SPREAD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST...AND POPS COULD DECREASE ACROSS SOUTHERN/INLAND COUNTIES.

PWATS EXCEEDING 2 INCHES...FORCING FOR ASCENT AND THE POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL SUNDAY.

EVEN AS THE UPPER TROUGH PULLS AWAY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AND AN
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...A NORTH/NORTHEAST TO SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND OVER THE REGION...ESPECIALLY OVER
COASTAL COUNTIES. THUS...POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE INLAND TO HIGH CHANCE AT THE COAST THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. HIGHER POPS COULD OCCASIONALLY BE REQUIRED WITHIN COASTAL
COUNTIES. ALSO OF NOTE...HIGH PWATS AND WEAKENING LOW/MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD PROMOTE ERRATIC SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM PROPAGATION AND
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

WHILE FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD REMAIN IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S...SOME LOCATIONS WHERE SHOWERS ARE ONGOING TO START
THE DAY AND/OR WHERE CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION PERSIST FOR AN EXTENDED
PERIOD OF TIME...TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO EXCEED THE LOWER
80S. LOW TEMPERATURES EACH NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S/LOWER
70S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE COAST. STRATUS/FOG COULD
DEVELOP AT ANY TIME DURING THE LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY WHERE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THIS PERIOD...FORECAST DETAILS INCLUDING POPS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE REMNANTS OF
ERIKA...WHICH COULD DRIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION OR MEANDER
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A STRONGER SYSTEM DRIFTING NORTH/NORTHEAST INTO
THE REGION COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND EVEN AN
INCREASED RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING ISOLATED TORNADOES FOR
AT LEAST SOME PART OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD...WHILE A WEAKER SYSTEM
COULD MEANDER OUTSIDE OF OUR AREA WITH FEW DIRECT IMPACTS. FOR
NOW...THE FORECAST MAINTAINS HIGHER THAN NORMAL POPS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WHEN CHANCE TO HIGH CHANCE POPS ARE
INDICATED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN CLOSE TO NORMAL...AND 90F
TEMPS ARE NOT INDICATED ANY DAY DURING THIS PERIOD. ASIDE FROM
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THE REGION WILL NOT BE DIRECTLY IMPACTED
BY A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH
REGARDING IMPORTANT FORECAST DETAILS. EXPECT ADJUSTMENTS WITHIN
SUBSEQUENT FORECAST PACKAGES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLC LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. WE LOWERED CIGS
TO BKN035 TO TREND GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHOWERS IN.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...DEEP LAYERED INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK
FOR ANY TSRA RISK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK THROUGH THU...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT
FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN A WEDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE
S AND SE...PRODUCING NE AND E WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS. A
MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR SIGNIFICANT
WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT WITH 3-5 FT SEAS BEYOND 20 NM...ESPECIALLY
EAST OF THE CHARLESTON PILOT BUOY.

A WEAK WARM FRONT COULD LIFT INTO THE GEORGIA WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN LATE. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT WITH SOMEWHAT WEAKER
FLOW THAN WHAT IS ONGOING EARLY TODAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
ONSHORE WINDS CAPPED AT 15-20 KT...HIGHEST BEYOND NEARSHORE
WATERS...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS
HIGH AS 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. MID TO LATE WEEK...ASSUMING THE
WEAKENING REMNANTS OF ERIKA REMAIN INLAND...A SLACKENING GRADIENT
COULD TRANSLATE TO WEAKENING ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 1-3
FT.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE MAINTAINED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
AT AREA BEACHES TODAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL SWELLS
AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES. IF WAVE PERIODS DO LENGTHEN JUST A BIT MORE...THE
RISK COULD BECOME HIGHER AT TYBEE TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THROUGH TONIGHT...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS ALONG THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THIS MORNINGS
HIGH TIDE...A BETTER CHANCE FOR COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE FORT
PULASKI AREA.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE PERIGEAN
SPRING TIDE PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE
LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE MORNING HIGH
TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER
FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE SUNDAY AND MONDAY.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT LEAST PARTS
OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY CRITERIA
FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA. ALSO OF NOTE...PERIODS
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
PERIOD. IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS IN COASTAL COMMUNITIES...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290539
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WAS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN THICKER
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS
SE SOUTH CAROLINA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC.
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAINS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLC LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. WE LOWERED CIGS
TO BKN035 TO TREND GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHOWERS IN.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN UNSTABLE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT E/NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
BY DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES/ . SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. WE LOWERED WINDS A BIT IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR GIVEN LATEST OBS/TRENDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS
OUTSIDE THE JETTIES.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290539
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. A WEAK SHORT WAVE
WAS LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA RESULTING IN THICKER
CLOUD COVER ACROSS SE GEORGIA WITH AREAS OF LAYERED CLOUDS ACROSS
SE SOUTH CAROLINA. THE BETTER CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL
BE ACROSS COASTAL SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH OF EDISTO BEACH SC.
GOOD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE SHOULD RESULT IN MAINLY LOW-
TOPPED CONVECTIVE RAINS. LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...MAINTAINED VCSH OVERNIGHT AS DEEP MOISTURE IN PLACE AND
LOW LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ATLC LAND/SEA INTERFACE.
THERE ARE SMALL CHANCE FOR MVFR CIGS LATER TONIGHT. INCREASING
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND MVFR CIGS ON SATURDAY. WE LOWERED CIGS
TO BKN035 TO TREND GIVEN SOME UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING SHOWERS IN.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW CLOUDS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY
SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN UNSTABLE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT E/NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
BY DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES/ . SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. WE LOWERED WINDS A BIT IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR GIVEN LATEST OBS/TRENDS. BETTER CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS
OUTSIDE THE JETTIES.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 290158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
958 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN DECENT SHAPE
AND REQUIRED MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS. MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND PUSH ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. CAPPED MAX POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AND MAYBE TSRA TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO SHOW ANYTHING
WORSE THAN VFR WEATHER. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. WE/LL
KEEP WATCH FOR IFR WEATHER AS WELL.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS/LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN UNSTABLE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT E/NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
BY DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES/ . SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CAN BE
LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
958 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY EVENING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN DECENT SHAPE
AND REQUIRED MAINLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS AND TEMPS. MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND PUSH ONSHORE INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES
OVERNIGHT. CAPPED MAX POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT...BUT LOCALLY HIGHER
POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES.

THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AND MAYBE TSRA TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO SHOW ANYTHING
WORSE THAN VFR WEATHER. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. WE/LL
KEEP WATCH FOR IFR WEATHER AS WELL.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS/LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND AN UNSTABLE
MARINE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL SUPPORT E/NE WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS.
BY DAYBREAK...WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH AS THE GRADIENT
RELAXES/ . SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND
4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM. SCATTERED CONVECTION OVERNIGHT CAN BE
LOCALLY STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND
FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY
THROUGH MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED
FOR AT LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE
ADVISORY CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AND MAYBE TSRA TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO SHOW ANYTHING
WORSE THAN VFR WEATHER. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. WE/LL
KEEP WATCH FOR IFR WEATHER AS WELL.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS/LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KTS
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CAN BE LOCALLY STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SC
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL BERKELEY FOR HIGH TIDE
AROUND 730-900 PM. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH AROUND 7.0 TO 7.2 FT
MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AND MAYBE TSRA TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO SHOW ANYTHING
WORSE THAN VFR WEATHER. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. WE/LL
KEEP WATCH FOR IFR WEATHER AS WELL.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS/LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KTS
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CAN BE LOCALLY STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SC
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL BERKELEY FOR HIGH TIDE
AROUND 730-900 PM. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH AROUND 7.0 TO 7.2 FT
MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282321
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
721 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...ISOLATED SHRA NEAR THE TERMINAL WILL END QUICKLY THIS
EVENING...WITH THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR SHRA AND MAYBE TSRA TO OCCUR
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. DIRECT
IMPACTS FROM THIS CONVECTION WILL RESULT IN PERIODIC FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO SHOW ANYTHING
WORSE THAN VFR WEATHER. HOWEVER...MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE TONIGHT/SATURDAY MORNING IN LOW STRATUS AND LIGHT FOG. WE/LL
KEEP WATCH FOR IFR WEATHER AS WELL.

KCHS...THE BULK OF CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
AIRFIELD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...THUS NOTHING MORE THAN VFR
CEILINGS TO PREVAIL. STILL...THERE IS A LOW END RISK FOR
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN LOW STRATUS/LIGHT FOG LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY AND IN ISOLATED SHRA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
AND IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR. TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KTS
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CAN BE LOCALLY STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SC
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL BERKELEY FOR HIGH TIDE
AROUND 730-900 PM. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH AROUND 7.0 TO 7.2 FT
MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282256
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BEFORE
RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. INDICATIONS
THAT KSAV WILL EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS. THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING
AT 5Z...THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KTS
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CAN BE LOCALLY STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SC
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL BERKELEY FOR HIGH TIDE
AROUND 730-900 PM. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH AROUND 7.0 TO 7.2 FT
MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282256
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY FROM EDISTO SOUTHWARD ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL
STEADILY FADE THIS EVENING. FURTHER OFFSHORE THE CONVECTION NEAR
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND WILL MAKE
A MOVE TOWARD THE COAST AND EVENTUALLY ONSHORE OVERNIGHT.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.
BUT THE TEMP CURVE HAS BEEN INTERRUPTED BY RECENT RAINS OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS...SO MODIFICATIONS HAVE BEEN MADE TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS IN THE HOURLY TEMP CURVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING...BEFORE
RETURNING TO VFR FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT. INDICATIONS
THAT KSAV WILL EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS. THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING
AT 5Z...THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15-20 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 15 KTS
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT. SCATTERED
CONVECTION LATE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT CAN BE LOCALLY STRONG
WITH GUSTY WINDS...REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL SC
COASTAL ZONES WITH THE EXCEPTION OF COASTAL BERKELEY FOR HIGH TIDE
AROUND 730-900 PM. TIDE LEVELS WILL REACH AROUND 7.0 TO 7.2 FT
MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OVER OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN LARGELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INLAND. CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN GEORGIA COULD ALSO BRING
SOME RAIN AND THUNDER TO COUNTIES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE CHANCE IS VERY LOW WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO COME INTO THE REGION.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.  INDICATIONS
THAT KSAV WILL EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS. THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING
AT 5Z...THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WHERE WINDS
WILL STAY 10-15 KTS...OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAVE
PUSHED A MODEST AMOUNT OF WATER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL LEVELS...WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AREAS THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS OF .1 TO .2 FT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
ARE EXPECTED. GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
AS WELL WITH THE COMING HIGH TIDE AROUND 8 PM...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE TREND OF RECENT TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE NOT REACHING AS HIGH AS
EXPECTED...DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT FT PULASKI SENSOR TO REACH THE
THE FLOODING THRESHOLD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CB/PM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE EAST AND SE
OF THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...AS A WEAK INLAND WEDGE REMAINS IN
PLACE. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN EXPAND ACROSS THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE STATIONARY FRONT HAS NOW MOVED SOUTH OF OUR LAND ZONES...BUT
REMAINS OVER OR NEAR OUR COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL REMAIN LARGELY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
INLAND. CONVECTION FOCUSED ALONG THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IN GEORGIA COULD ALSO BRING
SOME RAIN AND THUNDER TO COUNTIES ALONG THE ALTAMAHA THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SEVERE CHANCE IS VERY LOW WITH ANY STORMS THAT
DO COME INTO THE REGION.

HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL DECREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A SHORTWAVE
DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST
COAST. THIS...COMBINED WITH ENHANCED MOISTURE ALOFT FROM
CONVECTION UPSTREAM...WILL KEEP CLOUDY SKIES IN THE FORECAST THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. HIGH RES MODELS ARE PICKING UP ON A PLUME
OF ENHANCED MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR
GA OFFSHORE WATERS AND THE ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION LATE
TONIGHT...JUSTIFYING THE INTRODUCTION OF CHANCE POPS FOR THE AREA
FROM AROUND 4Z TO SUNRISE SATURDAY.

OVERCAST SKIES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN NORMAL
FOR THE REGION OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 70S
ALONG THE COAST TO LOWER 70S TO NEAR 70 FOR AREAS FURTHER INLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LOW IN THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE START OF THE
WEEKEND...EVENTUALLY WEAKENING AND STARTING TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTH/NE BY SUNDAY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE STEERED WEST/SW OF THE
LOCAL REGION BY A FORMIDABLE SUB-TROPICAL LOW AND MID-LEVEL RIDGE
CENTERED IN THE SW ATLANTIC ALONG ROUGH 30N. AT THE SURFACE WE FIND
THE THE REMAINS OF A STATIONARY FRONT OFF TO THE EAST/SE THAT WILL
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE...WHILE A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND SLOWLY
WEAKENS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WHILE THERE IS DECENT CAPPING AND LESS
MOISTURE OVER FAR NORTHERN ZONES...THERE IS A GOOD INFLUX OF SUB-
TROPICAL AIR ARRIVING WITHIN A DEEP SOUTH/SW FLOW FROM THE GULF.
PWATS WILL SURGE TO 2-2.25 INCHES OVER SOUTHERN ZONES...APPROACHING
2 INCHES CENTRAL AREAS...BUT LIMITED TO 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES NORTH. AS
A RESULT WE ANTICIPATE A SHARP NORTH-SOUTH GRADIENT IN REGARDS TO
CONVECTIVE RAINS. ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS WILL BE REQUIRED ONCE TRENDS
BECOME APPARENT...WE HAVE SHOWN 60 POPS SOUTH...30-50 POPS CENTRAL
SECTIONS AND 20 POPS NORTH. A SLUGGISH STORM MOTION AND THE
ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ALTHOUGH
SHOULD THE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR NEAR HIGH TIDE THE FLOODING RISK
COULD BE WORSE. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WILL WANE OVER MOST LAND
BASED COUNTIES DURING THE EVENING HOURS...BEFORE THE BEST
FORCING/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS OVER THE ATLANTIC AND ON THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE HELD TO THE MID OR UPPER
80S SATURDAY...THEN DROP TO THE LOWER AND MID 70S AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE GULF COAST LOW ALOFT WILL HAVE OPENED
INTO A WAVE AND CONTINUES TO HEAD NE NEAR THE SPINE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...ALLOWING FOR A DEEP-LAYERED SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO
EXPAND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. THIS PATTERN ALSO LOOKS TO
STEER ERIKA ON A MORE WEST/NW TRACK INTO PERHAPS THE GULF OF MEXICO.
EVEN SO A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE SE FROM BOTH THE ATLANTIC AND GULF OF
MEXICO AS PWATS ARE SOME 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. SUBTLE MID LEVEL PERTURBATIONS WILL STREAM OVERHEAD WITHIN
THE SOUTH/SW FLOW ALOFT...AND COMBINED WITH THE RICH MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO AT LEAST CHANCE TO LIKELY DAYTIME POPS AND SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE NIGHTTIME POPS. LIMITED STORM MOTION WILL AGAIN CAUSE
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...CAUSING A MORE SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING RISK SHOULD THE HEAVY RAINS OCCUR NEAR THE TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND THE WET ATMOSPHERE WILL HOLD DAYTIME
HIGHS BELOW NORMAL...WHILE TEMPS AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
CLIMO AT NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. RECENT FORECASTS DEPICT
THE SYSTEM NOW HEADING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...THEN PERHAPS COMING
ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE LATEST LOCAL FORECAST
STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS INCLUDING HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...MARINE HAZARDS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING AND
EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SEVERAL DIFFERENT POSSIBLE SCENARIOS OF
ERIKA...PENDING WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM SHIFTS INTO THE
GULF...MOVES INTO FLORIDA...STAYS EAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OR
EVEN FALLS APART COMPLETELY. SO LARGE UNCERTAINTIES STILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...ALTHOUGH A MORE WESTERN TRACK LEADS TO LESS IMPACTS THAN A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK. IN SPITE OF THE SHIFT IN TRACK...ALL SHOULD
CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM...STAYING
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING.  INDICATIONS
THAT KSAV WILL EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN
GUIDANCE...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF
RESTRICTIONS. THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING
AT 5Z...THOUGH LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL
HAVE TO BE REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND IN
LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/LIGHT FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WILL PERSIST THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK PRESSURE SURGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA NORTH OF A STATIONARY
FRONT STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. WINDS WILL BE BELOW 10 KTS
EVERYWHERE EXCEPT NEARSHORE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...WHERE WINDS
WILL STAY 10-15 KTS...OVERNIGHT. SEAS WILL BE MAINLY 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE SITUATED BETWEEN
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND THE REMNANTS OF A STATIONARY
FRONT TO THE EAST/SE...PRODUCING NE/EAST WINDS AT GENERALLY 15 KT
OR LESS. A MIX OF SWELLS AND WIND DRIVEN WAVES WILL COMBINE FOR
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE WATERS...WHICH SHOULD SHUNT
ERIKA FURTHER SOUTH/SW THEN ORIGINALLY ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL RESULT
IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS OF 15 KT OR LESS...AND SEAS WILL AGAIN
BE A MIXTURE OF LONG PERIOD SWELLS AND SHORTER PERIOD WIND DRIVEN
WAVES...AS THESE COMBINED SEAS HOLD AT OR BELOW 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. PLEASE STAY
TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND
OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...WE HAVE RAISED A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT
AREA BEACHES FOR SATURDAY GIVEN MODERATE ONSHORE WINDS...SMALL
SWELLS AND STRONG ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE ELEVATED
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES.

A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL
INFLUENCES WILL SUPPORT AN ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO AT
LEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK...PERHAPS EVEN LONGER PENDING THE FUTURE
EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF ERIKA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY HAVE
PUSHED A MODEST AMOUNT OF WATER INTO COASTAL AREAS.
THIS...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED ASTRONOMICAL TIDAL LEVELS...WILL
RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA
AREAS THIS EVENING. WATER LEVELS OF .1 TO .2 FT ABOVE FLOOD STAGE
ARE EXPECTED. GEORGIA COASTAL WATERS WILL BE CLOSE TO FLOOD STAGE
AS WELL WITH THE COMING HIGH TIDE AROUND 8 PM...BUT GIVEN THAT
THE TREND OF RECENT TIDAL DEPARTURES HAVE NOT REACHING AS HIGH AS
EXPECTED...DO NOT CURRENTLY EXPECT FT PULASKI SENSOR TO REACH THE
THE FLOODING THRESHOLD.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES DUE TO THE
PERIGEAN SPRING TIDES PLUS ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED
HIGH TIDE LEVELS AT AND NEAR THE COAST. WHILE WE WILL BE CLOSE TO
POSSIBLE SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING IN CHARLESTON HARBOR WITH THE
MORNING HIGH TIDES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...A BETTER CHANCE FOR
COASTAL FLOODING EXISTS WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EACH DAY THROUGH
MONDAY. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR AT
LEAST PARTS OF THE SC COAST...AND WE/LL BE CLOSE TO THE ADVISORY
CRITERIA FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE SAVANNAH AREA.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...ELEVATED TIDES COULD PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEK
PENDING WHAT BECOMES OF ERIKA. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE
CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
CB/PM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281759
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DECAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND GA COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CHARLESTON TO
SAVANNAH AND THEN FURTHER INLAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REPRESENT THE LOW END CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SC COAST EXPANDING TO HIGH END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA IN SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP INLAND SC AREAS DRY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
PERSISTED MOSTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GA. UPDATE NOW REPRESENTS THIS
DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE
LACK OF HEATING THERE WILL STILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY AND THUNDER
IS STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW. FINAL HIGH
TEMP TWEAK OF THE DAY ACCOUNTS FOR CLOUD COVER BY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER 80S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CLOUD DECK
HAS BEEN LESS DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD RE-FIRE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. WITH AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE
BEACHES...ESPECIALLY FROM HILTON HEAD SOUTH TO DARIEN AND SAPELO
ISLAND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE. 20-30 PERCENT POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AT THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND
WITH MID-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...28/00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO
COULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT.
ACCORDINGLY...MAXIMUM POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO
HIGH CHANCE SOUTH...AND LOCALLY HIGHER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THE SOUTH. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE...PERHAPS BREAKING DOWN INTO MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH COULD CROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY...THE
ONGOING NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT COULD PERSIST...THIS POPS
ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH.
MONDAY...THE INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION...AND POPS ARE
DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHERE PRECIPITATION PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. AS OF 5 AM EDT...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST SHIFTED A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER
WEST...RESULTING IN A LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NOTHING
STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM TRACKING NORTH OVER LAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE...MOST INVEST TRACKS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER WEST...AND OF PARTICULAR INTEREST 28/00Z
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEPICT AN EVEN WEAKER
SYSTEM PROGRESSING FARTHER W/NW...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THEN PERHAPS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS
INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, MARINE HAZARDS, SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AND EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS/EURO SCENARIO COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE
SUGGESTS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE
FROM LOWERING WIND SPEEDS OVER LAND...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT
REQUIRED FOR ONGOING WEATHER/POPS GRIDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CEILINGS AT KSAV HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TO VFR LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY. INDICATIONS THAT KSAV WILL
EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN GUIDANCE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS.
THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING AT 5Z...THOUGH
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A BIT OF AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL WORK DOWN
THE COAST TODAY. THE STRENGTH OF SURGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE
LATEST NAM SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE AND IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE MODEL/S DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT INDUCED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OR NOT...BUT THE NAM IS
REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS SIGNAL. WILL THEREFORE DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION AND BLEND THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO CONSTRUCT
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...10-15 KT BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS WITH
AROUND 10 KT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS SETTLING IN AROUND 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
E/NE WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND E/SE WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 6-7 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO AMZ374...WITH 4-5
FT SEAS SPREADING INTO NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK PUSHING A WEAKER SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...LOWERED WINDS/SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS COULD STILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...SLOWLY BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH
INCREASING COASTAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA APPROACHES THE REGION NEXT WEEK...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
COULD DEVELOP ON AREA BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY
AS STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HELP TO PILE WATER INTO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. EARLY MORNING SURGE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TIDE LEVELS TO SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGES...BUT THE
FORECASTED LEVELS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN PREVIOUS TIDAL TRENDS
AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. EVEN AFTER COMPENSATING FOR THIS...TIDE
LEVELS AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK 7.0-7.2
FT MLLW SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES...VALID FROM 6PM-10PM
TONIGHT. LEVELS AT FORT PULASKI ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY PEAK 9.0-9.2
FT MLLW...WHICH IS AT OR JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL GEORGIA. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANY
PORTION OF THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TIDE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS. THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE GEORGIA COAST. ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR...EVEN THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 7 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA HOLDS...WE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE TIDES
ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF COASTAL FLOODING.

WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR
OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281759
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DECAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND GA COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CHARLESTON TO
SAVANNAH AND THEN FURTHER INLAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REPRESENT THE LOW END CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SC COAST EXPANDING TO HIGH END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA IN SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP INLAND SC AREAS DRY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
PERSISTED MOSTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GA. UPDATE NOW REPRESENTS THIS
DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE
LACK OF HEATING THERE WILL STILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY AND THUNDER
IS STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW. FINAL HIGH
TEMP TWEAK OF THE DAY ACCOUNTS FOR CLOUD COVER BY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER 80S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CLOUD DECK
HAS BEEN LESS DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD RE-FIRE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. WITH AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE
BEACHES...ESPECIALLY FROM HILTON HEAD SOUTH TO DARIEN AND SAPELO
ISLAND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE. 20-30 PERCENT POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AT THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND
WITH MID-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...28/00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO
COULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT.
ACCORDINGLY...MAXIMUM POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO
HIGH CHANCE SOUTH...AND LOCALLY HIGHER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THE SOUTH. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE...PERHAPS BREAKING DOWN INTO MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH COULD CROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY...THE
ONGOING NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT COULD PERSIST...THIS POPS
ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH.
MONDAY...THE INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION...AND POPS ARE
DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHERE PRECIPITATION PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. AS OF 5 AM EDT...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST SHIFTED A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER
WEST...RESULTING IN A LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NOTHING
STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM TRACKING NORTH OVER LAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE...MOST INVEST TRACKS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER WEST...AND OF PARTICULAR INTEREST 28/00Z
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEPICT AN EVEN WEAKER
SYSTEM PROGRESSING FARTHER W/NW...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THEN PERHAPS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS
INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, MARINE HAZARDS, SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AND EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS/EURO SCENARIO COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE
SUGGESTS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE
FROM LOWERING WIND SPEEDS OVER LAND...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT
REQUIRED FOR ONGOING WEATHER/POPS GRIDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CEILINGS AT KSAV HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TO VFR LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY. INDICATIONS THAT KSAV WILL
EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN GUIDANCE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS.
THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING AT 5Z...THOUGH
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A BIT OF AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL WORK DOWN
THE COAST TODAY. THE STRENGTH OF SURGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE
LATEST NAM SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE AND IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE MODEL/S DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT INDUCED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OR NOT...BUT THE NAM IS
REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS SIGNAL. WILL THEREFORE DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION AND BLEND THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO CONSTRUCT
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...10-15 KT BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS WITH
AROUND 10 KT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS SETTLING IN AROUND 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
E/NE WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND E/SE WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 6-7 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO AMZ374...WITH 4-5
FT SEAS SPREADING INTO NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK PUSHING A WEAKER SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...LOWERED WINDS/SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS COULD STILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...SLOWLY BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH
INCREASING COASTAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA APPROACHES THE REGION NEXT WEEK...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
COULD DEVELOP ON AREA BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY
AS STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HELP TO PILE WATER INTO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. EARLY MORNING SURGE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TIDE LEVELS TO SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGES...BUT THE
FORECASTED LEVELS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN PREVIOUS TIDAL TRENDS
AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. EVEN AFTER COMPENSATING FOR THIS...TIDE
LEVELS AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK 7.0-7.2
FT MLLW SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES...VALID FROM 6PM-10PM
TONIGHT. LEVELS AT FORT PULASKI ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY PEAK 9.0-9.2
FT MLLW...WHICH IS AT OR JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL GEORGIA. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANY
PORTION OF THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TIDE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS. THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE GEORGIA COAST. ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR...EVEN THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 7 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA HOLDS...WE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE TIDES
ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF COASTAL FLOODING.

WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR
OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281759
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DECAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND GA COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CHARLESTON TO
SAVANNAH AND THEN FURTHER INLAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REPRESENT THE LOW END CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SC COAST EXPANDING TO HIGH END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA IN SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP INLAND SC AREAS DRY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
PERSISTED MOSTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GA. UPDATE NOW REPRESENTS THIS
DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE
LACK OF HEATING THERE WILL STILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY AND THUNDER
IS STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW. FINAL HIGH
TEMP TWEAK OF THE DAY ACCOUNTS FOR CLOUD COVER BY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER 80S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CLOUD DECK
HAS BEEN LESS DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD RE-FIRE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. WITH AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE
BEACHES...ESPECIALLY FROM HILTON HEAD SOUTH TO DARIEN AND SAPELO
ISLAND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE. 20-30 PERCENT POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AT THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND
WITH MID-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...28/00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO
COULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT.
ACCORDINGLY...MAXIMUM POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO
HIGH CHANCE SOUTH...AND LOCALLY HIGHER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THE SOUTH. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE...PERHAPS BREAKING DOWN INTO MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH COULD CROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY...THE
ONGOING NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT COULD PERSIST...THIS POPS
ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH.
MONDAY...THE INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION...AND POPS ARE
DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHERE PRECIPITATION PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. AS OF 5 AM EDT...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST SHIFTED A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER
WEST...RESULTING IN A LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NOTHING
STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM TRACKING NORTH OVER LAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE...MOST INVEST TRACKS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER WEST...AND OF PARTICULAR INTEREST 28/00Z
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEPICT AN EVEN WEAKER
SYSTEM PROGRESSING FARTHER W/NW...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THEN PERHAPS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS
INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, MARINE HAZARDS, SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AND EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS/EURO SCENARIO COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE
SUGGESTS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE
FROM LOWERING WIND SPEEDS OVER LAND...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT
REQUIRED FOR ONGOING WEATHER/POPS GRIDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CEILINGS AT KSAV HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TO VFR LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY. INDICATIONS THAT KSAV WILL
EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN GUIDANCE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS.
THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING AT 5Z...THOUGH
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A BIT OF AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL WORK DOWN
THE COAST TODAY. THE STRENGTH OF SURGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE
LATEST NAM SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE AND IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE MODEL/S DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT INDUCED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OR NOT...BUT THE NAM IS
REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS SIGNAL. WILL THEREFORE DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION AND BLEND THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO CONSTRUCT
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...10-15 KT BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS WITH
AROUND 10 KT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS SETTLING IN AROUND 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
E/NE WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND E/SE WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 6-7 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO AMZ374...WITH 4-5
FT SEAS SPREADING INTO NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK PUSHING A WEAKER SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...LOWERED WINDS/SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS COULD STILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...SLOWLY BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH
INCREASING COASTAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA APPROACHES THE REGION NEXT WEEK...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
COULD DEVELOP ON AREA BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY
AS STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HELP TO PILE WATER INTO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. EARLY MORNING SURGE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TIDE LEVELS TO SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGES...BUT THE
FORECASTED LEVELS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN PREVIOUS TIDAL TRENDS
AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. EVEN AFTER COMPENSATING FOR THIS...TIDE
LEVELS AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK 7.0-7.2
FT MLLW SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES...VALID FROM 6PM-10PM
TONIGHT. LEVELS AT FORT PULASKI ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY PEAK 9.0-9.2
FT MLLW...WHICH IS AT OR JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL GEORGIA. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANY
PORTION OF THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TIDE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS. THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE GEORGIA COAST. ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR...EVEN THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 7 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA HOLDS...WE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE TIDES
ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF COASTAL FLOODING.

WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR
OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281759
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
159 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE NEAR THE COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA COULD IMPACT THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. REFER TO THE LATEST
ADVISORY ON ERIKA ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE...STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
DECAY ACROSS THE NEARSHORE SC WATERS AND GA COASTAL COUNTIES.
SHOWER ACTIVITY THUS FAR HAS REMAINED FOCUSED ALONG THE
FRONT...THOUGH HIGH RES MODELS ARE HINTING THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS
COULD FORM ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM CHARLESTON TO
SAVANNAH AND THEN FURTHER INLAND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16. HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY TO REPRESENT THE LOW END CHANCE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE SC COAST EXPANDING TO HIGH END
CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA IN SOUTHEAST GA. HIGH PRESSURE
NOSING IN FROM THE NORTH SHOULD KEEP INLAND SC AREAS DRY THIS
AFTERNOON.

DIURNAL HEATING CONTINUED TO BE SLOWER THAN ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MORNING HOURS AS A STUBBORN LOW STRATUS CLOUD DECK HAS
PERSISTED MOSTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN GA. UPDATE NOW REPRESENTS THIS
DECK PERSISTING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE THE
LACK OF HEATING THERE WILL STILL BE MODEST INSTABILITY AND THUNDER
IS STILL POSSIBLE...THOUGH THE SEVERE RISK IS VERY LOW. FINAL HIGH
TEMP TWEAK OF THE DAY ACCOUNTS FOR CLOUD COVER BY KEEPING HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE MID 80S ALONG THE EAST OF THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR...WITH UPPER 80S WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 WHERE CLOUD DECK
HAS BEEN LESS DENSE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY THIS EVENING.
ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS COULD RE-FIRE OVER THE
ATLANTIC AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE WESTERN WALL
OF THE GULF STREAM. WITH AND EAST/NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW IN
PLACE...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE A RUN FOR THE
BEACHES...ESPECIALLY FROM HILTON HEAD SOUTH TO DARIEN AND SAPELO
ISLAND GIVEN THE ORIENTATION OF THE COASTLINE. 20-30 PERCENT POPS
WILL BE MAINTAINED OVERNIGHT AT THE COAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS WITH
DRY CONDITIONS INLAND. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S INLAND
WITH MID-UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES.

SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...28/00Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA...WHILE
THE UPPER LOW CENTERED WEST OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS SCENARIO
COULD SUPPORT A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT.
ACCORDINGLY...MAXIMUM POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT CHANCE NORTH TO
HIGH CHANCE SOUTH...AND LOCALLY HIGHER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE
REQUIRED ACROSS THE SOUTH. PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND WEAK STEERING
FLOW COULD SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW SHOULD OPEN AND GRADUALLY EJECT
NORTHEAST AS AN OPEN WAVE...PERHAPS BREAKING DOWN INTO MULTIPLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WHICH COULD CROSS THE REGION. THIS SCENARIO SHOULD
SUPPORT SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. SUNDAY...THE
ONGOING NORTH TO SOUTH MOISTURE GRADIENT COULD PERSIST...THIS POPS
ARE TAPERED FROM LIKELY ACROSS THE SOUTH TO CHANCE NORTH.
MONDAY...THE INCREASINGLY ILL-DEFINED MOISTURE GRADIENT SHIFTS TO A
WEST/NORTHWEST TO EAST/SOUTHEAST ORIENTATION...AND POPS ARE
DISTRIBUTED ACCORDINGLY WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S CANNOT BE
RULED OUT WHERE PRECIPITATION PERSISTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MANY FORECAST DETAILS DEPEND ON THE HIGHLY UNCERTAIN TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA NEXT WEEK. AS OF 5 AM EDT...THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST SHIFTED A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER
WEST...RESULTING IN A LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND NOTHING
STRONGER THAN A TROPICAL STORM TRACKING NORTH OVER LAND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALSO OF NOTE...MOST INVEST TRACKS HAVE
ALSO SHIFTED FARTHER WEST...AND OF PARTICULAR INTEREST 28/00Z
OPERATIONAL RUNS OF THE GFS AND EUROPEAN DEPICT AN EVEN WEAKER
SYSTEM PROGRESSING FARTHER W/NW...PUSHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO
THEN PERHAPS COMING ASHORE ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST. THE
LATEST FORECAST STILL OFFERS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME IMPACTS
INCLUDING HEAVY RAIN, GUSTY WINDS, MARINE HAZARDS, SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING AND EVEN A THREAT FOR TORNADOES AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THE GFS/EURO SCENARIO COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY AN INFLUX OF
ENHANCED TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST BUT OTHERWISE
SUGGESTS NO TROPICAL CYCLONE IMPACTS IN OUR FORECAST AREA. ASIDE
FROM LOWERING WIND SPEEDS OVER LAND...SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NOT
REQUIRED FOR ONGOING WEATHER/POPS GRIDS THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KSAV...CEILINGS AT KSAV HAVE CONTINUED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN
EXPECTED. MVFR CEILINGS NOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON BEFORE RISING TO VFR LEVELS LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
AS LOW LEVEL MIXING INCREASES SLIGHTLY. INDICATIONS THAT KSAV WILL
EXPERIENCE CEILING AND/OR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ONCE AGAIN
TONIGHT HAVE BEEN SEEN CONSISTENTLY IN GUIDANCE...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS CURRENTLY LOW IN THE EXTENT OF RESTRICTIONS.
THUS...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN INDICATED BEGINNING AT 5Z...THOUGH
LOWER CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE AND WILL HAVE TO BE
REFINED IN FUTURE FORECASTS.

KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS SHOULD GRADUALLY DESCEND TO THE MID LEVELS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS HEIGHTS ALOFT FALL DUE AS UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS COULD OCCUR WITH SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
IN LATE NIGHT/EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.
TUESDAY AND BEYOND...CONDITIONS REMAIN HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A BIT OF AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND SURGE WILL WORK DOWN
THE COAST TODAY. THE STRENGTH OF SURGE IS UNCERTAIN WITH THE
LATEST NAM SHOWING WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT FOR THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL WATERS. THIS IS HIGHER THAN ANY GUIDANCE AND IS
LIKELY DUE TO THE MODEL/S DEPICTION OF A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT INDUCED BY DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE. IT IS
UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS LOW WILL DEVELOP OR NOT...BUT THE NAM IS
REALLY THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING THIS SIGNAL. WILL THEREFORE DISCOUNT
THIS SOLUTION AND BLEND THE VARIOUS SHORT TERM MODELS TO CONSTRUCT
WINDS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. THIS YIELDS SPEEDS AROUND 15 KT
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS...10-15 KT BEAUFORT COUNTY WATERS WITH
AROUND 10 KT FOR THE GEORGIA WATERS. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

TONIGHT...THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL RELAX A BIT OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS SETTLING IN AROUND 10 KT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT OUT OF THE
EAST OR NORTHEAST. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-4 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ON THE PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
E/NE WINDS DURING THE LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS AND E/SE WINDS DURING
THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WILL AVERAGE NO MORE THAN 10-15 KNOTS.
SEAS OF 2-4 FT SATURDAY WILL GRADUALLY BUILD MAINLY DUE TO
INCREASING LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...AND BY LATE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY 6-7 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO AMZ374...WITH 4-5
FT SEAS SPREADING INTO NEARSHORE WATERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH MIDWEEK...WINDS/SEAS WILL DEPEND ON THE
UNCERTAIN TRACK AND INTENSITY OF TROPICAL STORM ERIKA. BASED ON THE
LATEST FORECAST TRACK PUSHING A WEAKER SYSTEM INLAND OVER THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...LOWERED WINDS/SEAS OVER COASTAL WATERS DURING
THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...WINDS/SEAS COULD STILL BECOME HAZARDOUS FOR
SMALL CRAFT.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

RIP CURRENTS...SLOWLY BUILDING EAST/SOUTHEAST SWELL COMBINED WITH
INCREASING COASTAL WINDS WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY. A PERSISTENT LONG PERIOD SWELL...
ONSHORE WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL LIKELY SUPPORT AN
ELEVATED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THIS WEEKEND. IF TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA APPROACHES THE REGION NEXT WEEK...DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS
COULD DEVELOP ON AREA BEACHES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THIS EVENING...EXPECT POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALIES TO INCREASE TODAY
AS STRENGTHENING EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS HELP TO PILE WATER INTO
THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA COAST. EARLY MORNING SURGE GUIDANCE
BRINGS TIDE LEVELS TO SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS AT BOTH
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGES...BUT THE
FORECASTED LEVELS LOOK A BIT TOO HIGH GIVEN PREVIOUS TIDAL TRENDS
AND EXPECTED WIND SPEEDS. EVEN AFTER COMPENSATING FOR THIS...TIDE
LEVELS AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR ARE STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK 7.0-7.2
FT MLLW SO WILL GO AHEAD AND HOIST A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR
ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES...VALID FROM 6PM-10PM
TONIGHT. LEVELS AT FORT PULASKI ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY PEAK 9.0-9.2
FT MLLW...WHICH IS AT OR JUST BELOW COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR COASTAL GEORGIA. CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR ANY
PORTION OF THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. TIDE TRENDS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES AND ONSHORE WINDS
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS. THE EVENING HIGH TIDES ARE
FORECAST TO EXCEED SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND SHOULD AT LEAST APPROACH COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING THE GEORGIA COAST. ON CHARLESTON
HARBOR...EVEN THE MORNING HIGH TIDES ARE FORECAST TO APPROACH 7 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER EACH DAY.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL
WANE. HOWEVER...IF THE LATEST FORECAST FROM NHC FOR ERIKA HOLDS...WE
WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT RISES IN THE TIDES
ALONG WITH SOME DEGREE OF COASTAL FLOODING.

WITH REGARDS TO POTENTIAL CONDITIONS NEXT WEEK...PLEASE STAY TUNED
TO THE LATEST FORECASTS FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND OUR
OFFICE CONCERNING ERIKA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     SCZ048>051.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...CEB/ST
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...CEB
MARINE...ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




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