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000
FXUS62 KCHS 260147
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
947 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES DOWN 1-2
DEGREES PER GOING THERMAL TRENDS...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-16 WHERE
TEMPS WERE RUNNING ABOUT 4-6 DEGS COLDER THAN 24 HOURS AGO. NO
OTHER CHANGES WERE MADE.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAK LEE-SIDE TOUGHING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS LATE...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LOOKS TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RECOUPING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY CHILLIER AREAS...BUT
THE GENERAL FLAVOR OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S TO THE UPPER 40S-MID 50S AT THE
COAST WITH UPPER 50S-AROUND 60 ALONG THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES...INCLUDING PINOPOLIS. ITS
INTERESTING TO SEE THAT MONKS CORNER DROPPED TO 46 THIS MORNING
WHILE PINOPOLIS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY ONLY DROPPED TO 59--A
TESTAMENT TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS OF LAKE
MOULTIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COOLING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AT THE BEACHES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT
BAY. ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE MORNING FOG...WHICH
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
INCREASE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALUES OF MID 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NICE SURFACE INVERSION TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG...
MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME W/NW LATE AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS LOOK TO GO NO
HIGHER THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 252249
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT-CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE SOLID RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ATOP THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS WILL LIKELY INDUCE WEAK LEE-SIDE TOUGHING ACROSS THE
FOOTHILLS LATE...BUT THE NOCTURNAL INVERSION LOOKS TOO STRONG TO
SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT RECOUPING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESPITE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST WAS UPDATED TO SHOW SOME SLIGHTLY
COLDER TEMPERATURES IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY CHILLIER AREAS...BUT
THE GENERAL FLAVOR OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS MAINTAINED. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S TO THE LOWER-MID 50S AT THE
COAST WITH UPPER 50S-AROUND 60 ALONG THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES...INCLUDING PINOPOLIS.
ITS INTERESTING TO SEE THAT MONKS CORNER DROPPED TO 46 THIS
MORNING WHILE PINOPOLIS JUST A FEW MILES AWAY ONLY DROPPED TO
59--A TESTAMENT TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WARMER LAKE WATERS OF
LAKE MOULTIRE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COOLING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AT THE BEACHES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT
BAY. ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE MORNING FOG...WHICH
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
INCREASE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALUES OF MID 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NICE SURFACE INVERSION TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITIES FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG...
MAINLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME W/NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS SLIGHTLY ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS LOOK TO GO NO HIGHER THAN 10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 251937
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
337 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH AND WEST BUT REMAIN WELL
TO THE NORTH. PRETTY DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OUTSIDE
OF A SLIGHT INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WINDS. SO NOT EXPECTING QUITE AS
COLD AS THIS MORNING...MAINLY UPPER 40S INLAND AND MID/UPPER 50S
AROUND THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER DURING THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WITH ABOVE NORMAL NORMAL TEMPS IN THE 80S EXPECTED
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNDER PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE. WINDS WILL
BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE COOLING
TEMPERATURES DOWN AT THE BEACHES BY SEVERAL DEGREES. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES WILL BE BELOW 1 INCH...KEEPING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AT
BAY. ONLY POTENTIAL WEATHER PROBLEM WILL BE MORNING FOG...WHICH
COULD BECOME DENSE IN SPOTS TUESDAY MORNING AS LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS
INCREASE TO THE CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED VALUES OF MID 50S INLAND TO
NEAR 60 AT THE COAST. CLEAR SKIES AND NEARLY CALM WINDS WILL ALLOW
FOR A NICE SURFACE INVERSION TO SET UP.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD PREVAIL... ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME MORNING GROUND FOG
THAT WOULD RESTRICT VSBYS FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE PRE-DAWN
THROUGH MID MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
MORNINGS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WELL TO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL APPROACH
LEADING TO A BIT MORE OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT BUT STILL EXPECT
WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER
SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND
SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...FWA
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...FWA/RJB
MARINE...FWA/RJB








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251716
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON CRUISE CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BACKS TO
A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT SURGES
FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251716
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 PM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST ON CRUISE CONTROL THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S WARMING INTO THE UPPER 70S MOST LOCALES AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BACKS TO
A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT SURGES
FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST IN PRETTY GOOD SHAPE SO NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN A BIT OVER THE AREA TODAY BUT HEIGHTS
WILL BUILD ALOFT AS THE CUTOFF UPPER LOW JUST OFFSHORE CONTINUES
TO MOVE SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA. THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING
INDICATES A VERY DRY AIR MASS SO WE EXPECT A RAIN AND EVEN CLOUD-FREE
DAY WITH FAIRLY SEASONAL TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 70S EXCEPT LOWER/MID
70S AT THE COAST.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH
PRESSURE EXERTS MORE OF AN INFLUENCE. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BACKS TO
A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT SURGES
FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO 3 FT
THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION AND EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AND THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND TODAY
WILL BE A FEW WISPY THIN CIRRUS LATER TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS
SEAWARD PRIOR TO MID MORNING...10 TO 15 KT TOPS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT
SURGES FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 251103
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST
REGION AND EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT.
DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AND THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND TODAY
WILL BE A FEW WISPY THIN CIRRUS LATER TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND
LIGHT WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S
ACROSS THE REGION.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS
SEAWARD PRIOR TO MID MORNING...10 TO 15 KT TOPS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT
SURGES FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 250809
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THURSDAY AND OFF THE COAST BY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES PREVAIL THIS MORNING IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
STARVED MID LEVEL COLD POOL/VORTICITY MAXIMA WHICH MOVED OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST AFTER 07Z. TEMPS SHOULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S AROUND
NORTH CHARLESTON AND THE WESTERN HALF OF CHATHAM COUNTY BY DAYBREAK.
EVEN COOLER TEMPS FURTHER INLAND WITH MILDER READINGS TOWARD THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

SURFACE HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN ANCHORED ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION
AND EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS THROUGH TONIGHT. DEEP
LAYERED DRY AIR WILL PERSIST AND THE ONLY CLOUDS AROUND TODAY WILL
BE A FEW WISPY THIN CIRRUS LATER TODAY. FULL SUNSHINE AND LIGHT
WINDS WITH HIGH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID/UPPER 70S ACROSS THE
REGION.

QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT WITH JUST ENOUGH OF A BOUNDARY LAYER GRADIENT
TO KEEP RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS FROM BEING PERFECT. LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID/UPPER 40S COLDER INLAND AREAS TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE U.S.
17 CORRIDOR. SURFACE WINDS MOST AREAS WILL BE LIGHT TO NEAR CALM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE
DURING THE PERIOD. WARM LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND FULL SUNSHINE EACH
DAY WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. THE SURFACE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S. A
RETURN FLOW BY MONDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 50S MOST
AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE UPPER RIDGE FINALLY BREAKS DOWN DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN UNITED STATES. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOW IN BETTER AGREEMENT
ON A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY. DUE TO
THE RELATIVELY FLAT UPPER TROUGH...MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF THE
FRONT WILL BE MARGINAL SO WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE MORE THAN ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONT THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE MODELS
DIVERGE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...THOUGH THE TREND IS TOWARD A
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN LATE WEEK OR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK NORTHERLY SURGE FROM THE CHARLESTON/SAVANNAH PILOT BUOYS
SEAWARD PRIOR TO MID MORNING...10 TO 15 KT TOPS. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW
BACKS TO A MORE W OR OFFSHORE COMPONENT TONIGHT WITH LOCAL 15 KT
SURGES FROM JETTING EFFECTS BEYOND 10 NM AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 1 TO
3 FT THROUGH TONIGHT.

A BROAD HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DOMINATE THE MARINE WEATHER SUNDAY
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS GENERALLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS
NO HIGHER THAN 3 FT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 250522
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
122 AM EDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE WAS SHIFTING OFF THE SE GEORGIA COAST AND
STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT WAS EXPANDING OVER THE FORECAST AREA WITH
CLOUDS IN COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA CLEARING RAPIDLY. LOWS WILL RANGE
FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S JUST INLAND FROM
THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON
AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
1-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 250129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
929 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THERE IS NO CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. DID SLOW THE
CLEARING JUST A BIT PER GOING SATELLITE TRENDS...WHICH ALSO
NECESSITATED A SLIGHTLY ADJUSTMENT TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING A
LARGE BATCH OF ALTOFORM AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TAIL END OF THIS CLOUDINESS
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST AT 40 KT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
ONCE THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING FAST IN THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD UP SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS CLOUDS BRIEFLY PUSH THROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD
NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN A
NUMBER OF AREAS TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
1-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 242255
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
655 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A POTENT SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST IS ENHANCING A
LARGE BATCH OF ALTOFORM AND CIRRIFORM CLOUDS ACROSS THE MIDLANDS
AND PEE DEE EARLY THIS EVENING. THE TAIL END OF THIS CLOUDINESS
WILL SKIRT THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS AS IT MOVES EAST AT 40 KT. EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO PREVAIL
ONCE THESE CLOUDS MOVE OFFSHORE.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS ALREADY DECOUPLED AND TEMPERATURES ARE
FALLING FAST IN THE NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL ENVIRONMENT.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE HELD UP SOME FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTH AS CLOUDS BRIEFLY PUSH THROUGH...BUT THIS SHOULD
NOT AFFECT OVERNIGHT LOWS. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY IN A
NUMBER OF AREAS TO TRY TO ACCOUNT FOR MESOSCALE INFLUENCES...BUT
OVERALL THE LOW TEMPERATURE SCHEME WAS NOT CHANGED TOO MUCH. LOWS
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 40S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 40S JUST
INLAND FROM THE COAST WITH LOWER-MID 50S AT THE BEACHES...DOWNTOWN
CHARLESTON AND AROUND THE SANTEE LAKES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LIGHT WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH AND INCREASE TO 5-10 KT
OVERNIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY PUSHES THROUGH. SEAS WILL AVERAGE
1-3 FT.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 241936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/APPROACH THE REGION AND WILL
SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE/THICKNESS...WITH POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST AND HEADING OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EARLY WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S AFTER
SUNSET/THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...FEATURING A RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S AT THE CHILLIEST INLAND LOCALES TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TO START...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCLUDING AN EARLY...WEAK/LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTED A STRENGTHENING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. THIS
FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY/APPROACH THE REGION AND WILL
SUPPORT HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING COVERAGE/THICKNESS...WITH POTENTIAL
CLOUD COVER RANGING FROM CLEAR/MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY
TONIGHT. BY 12Z SATURDAY...THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS WILL BE NEAR
THE COAST AND HEADING OFFSHORE.

TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S EARLY WILL FALL THROUGH THE 50S AFTER
SUNSET/THIS EVENING. BY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM
OUT IN THE 40S AT MOST LOCATIONS...FEATURING A RANGE FROM THE LOWER
40S AT THE CHILLIEST INLAND LOCALES TO THE LOWER 50S ON THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT BEGINS TO
APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST BUT THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT NEARS
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN MONDAY. ALL IN
ALL DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE.
THIS WILL LEAD TO BIG DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGES...GENERALLY 25-30
DEGREES BETWEEN OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR 50/LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 80S. THE ONSHORE FLOW MONDAY SHOULD KEEP TEMPS BELOW
THE RECORD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S AT KCHS/KSAV AND MID 80S AT KCXM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TO START...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCLUDING AN EARLY...WEAK/LOCALIZED SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
BETWEEN THE INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ENE
THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN SOMEWHAT
OVERNIGHT. THUS...NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10-15
KT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WILL SLIDE
OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
WILL LEAD TO OFFSHORE WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE MONDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...RJB/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241649
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SATURDAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THE LEAD SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SWATH
OF HIGH CLOUDS WAS PUSHING OFFSHORE. ADDITIONAL HIGH CLOUDS WILL
SPILL INTO THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING. IN BETWEEN...EXPECT SUNNY/MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES. TEMPS SHOULD TOP IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON...CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241414
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1014 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A DRY
COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FRIDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED
ONLY MINOR HOURLY ADJUSTMENTS.

AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG AN UPPER TROUGH INTO THE SOUTHEAST...
HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STEAM ACROSS THE REGION.
LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THICKER CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH
A LEAD SHORTWAVE...AT AND ABOVE 400 MB/25 KFT AGL PER THE 12Z KCHS
SOUNDING WHICH ALSO REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB...WILL GIVE
WAY TO INCREASING SUNSHINE FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE ADVANCES OFFSHORE...THEN ADDITIONAL THICKER HIGH CLOUDS
COULD ACCOMPANY THE NEXT SHORTWAVE INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING.

THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING REVEALED VERY DRY AIR BELOW 400 MB.

THICKER CLOUDS COULD SLOW TEMPERATURE RECOVERY A BIT THIS MORNING
BUT HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 70S ARE STILL EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY/...
THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTHERLY WINDS AS HIGH AS 10-15 KT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHTER WINDS
INCLUDING A WEAK SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AS HIGH PRESSURE EXPANDS
EAST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS THIS AFTERNOON/THIS EVENING.
SEAS OF 1-3 FT WILL PERSIST...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH
WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY
APPROACH 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM
THE NORTH NEAR SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 241110
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE
THE PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH
PWATS 1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
HIGHEST COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE
TONIGHT OVER EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS
ROLLS THROUGH.

TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE
MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER
70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15
KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR
SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WERE INCREASING ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING SE INTO THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION.
PATCHES OF THICKER CIRROSTRATUS NOTED ON 3.9 MICRON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY MAY BE ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY FURTHER EARLY
THIS MORNING AND IN A FEW INSTANCES...READINGS MAY RISE A DEGREE
OR TWO.

A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING
AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES DIG OUT UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
GULF...FLORIDA/GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BY LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE THE
PVA THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS BONE DRY THROUGH DEEP LAYERS WITH PWATS
1/2 INCH OR LESS. BOUTS OF HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHEST
COVERAGE THIS MORNING AND PERHAPS FOR A SHORT WHILE TONIGHT OVER
EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA AS THE STRONGER OF THE VORTS ROLLS THROUGH.

TODAY...DIFFICULT TO TELL IF HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL BE ENOUGH
TO TAKE A DEGREE OR SO OFF HIGH TEMPS DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT WE
MAINTAINED A FORECAST HIGH TEMP SCHEME OF MID 70S WITH SOME UPPER
70S POSSIBLE. A WEAK PRES PATTERN AT THE SURFACE WITH LIGHT WINDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

THIS EVENING...POSITIVE 700 MB OMEGA AND ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL
SHORT WAVE WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME POCKETS OF MID LAYERED CLOUD
COVER ACROSS EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA WITH BUILDING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
OVERNIGHT AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS. THERE
COULD BE A SLUGGISH DIURNAL CURVE TO TEMPS DURING THE EVENING BUT
READINGS SHOULD BEGIN TO FALL AT A BETTER CLIP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SPREAD OVER THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN STATES DURING THE PERIOD WHILE AT THE SURFACE DRY HIGH
PRESSURE PREVAILS. AS THE 850 MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHEAST
STATES ON SUNDAY...A WEAK...DRY FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE AREA.
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND A DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT WILL
YIELD A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO
THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. SUNDAY MORNING LOWS
WILL AGAIN BE IN THE 40S...THEN WITH THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTING EAST
WE WILL SEE LOWER TO MIDDLE 50S LOWS MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE EXPANSIVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST WHILE A BROAD
TROUGH PATTERN DEVELOPS MID-WEEK. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY SET UP
OFF THE GA COAST TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. LARGE MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
REGARDING AN UPPER VORT DROPPING TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION.
THERE ARE HINTS AT A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE CAROLINAS THURSDAY
AND MOVING OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE LOW AND MID
LEVELS DO NOT LOOK VERY MOIST SO WE CURRENTLY ONLY SHOW SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. FAIRLY WARM TEMPS WILL
CONTINUE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN
THE 50S. A COOL DOWN IS EXPECTED FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS TODAY AS A WEAK PRES PATTERN RESIDES OVER THE
WATERS. WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. IN
RESPONSE TO AN UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVING OFFSHORE TONIGHT WITH WEAK
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION...A LATE NIGHT SURGE MAY APPROACH 15
KT BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE WITH SPEEDS 10 TO 15 KT FROM THE NORTH NEAR
SHORE NEARING DAYBREAK.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH OFFSHORE
WINDS BECOMING ONSHORE. SPEEDS WILL GENERALLY BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH
SEAS 3 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY LAST EVENING UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIAL TEMPS WITH SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS
RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST LOWS AT MIDNIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES FELL QUICKLY LAST EVENING UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. MINOR TWEAKS TO INITIAL TEMPS WITH SOME RURAL INLAND AREAS
RUNNING COLDER THAN FORECAST LOWS AT MIDNIGHT. READINGS SHOULD
LEVEL OUT AND PERHAPS RISE A BIT LATE AS HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
N TO NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 240139
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
939 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE FALLING QUICKLY UNDER IDEAL RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS IS LIKELY TO END SOON AS FAIRLY THICK
CIRRUS IS QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AHEAD OF A POTENT
SHORTWAVE. HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW WARMER
OVERNIGHT LOWS WHICH HAS BEEN A TREND FOR SEVERAL RUNS NOW...SO
OUR LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. IT
WILL STILL BE A RATHER COOL NIGHT WITH LOWS FROM THE MID-UPPER 40S
INLAND WITH LOWER-MID 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST...BUT IT
SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THESE VALUES ARE STILL ABOUT A FULL CATEGORY
LOWER THAN THE LATEST RUNS OF THE RAP AND H3R MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER AND DIMINISH OVER THE WATERS THIS
EVENING. N/NW WINDS OF 5-10 KT WITH SEAS 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 232257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE PEAKED FOR THE AREA JUST BEFORE SUNSET
AND IT WAS SPECTACULAR. NOW THAT THE SUN HAS SET...EXPECT A RAPID
DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP QUICKLY
THIS EVENING UNDER NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS...BUT
THERE IS SOME CONCERN UPSTREAM CIRRUS WILL BE THICK ENOUGH TO
DISRUPT THE RADIATIVE PROCESS FROM MIDNIGHT ON AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SUPPORT
INCREASING CLOUD COVER TO PARTLY CLOUDY FROM ROUGHLY 2 AM UNTIL
SUNRISE FRIDAY...SO OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY ACTUALLY BE A BIT TOO COOL
BASED ON THIS DATA. WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST JUST YET...BUT LOWS MAY VERY WELL NEED TO BE
RAISED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE AFTER A FEW MORE HIGH
RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE RECEIVED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-2 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 231922
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH LOW TEMPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOUD-FREE SKY...WHICH LIKELY SUPPORTS DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT AND FAIR TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S INLAND WHERE DECOUPLING IS ANTICIPATED FIRST...AND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231922
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
322 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION THIS
WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER
THE REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER
OFF THE NORTHEASTERN SEABOARD. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS
ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.

THE MAIN ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL DEAL WITH LOW TEMPS. MODEL SOUNDINGS
ARE HINTING AT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SOME MID AND/OR HIGH CLOUDS
THROUGH THE NIGHT...WHICH COULD MAINTAIN SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS THAN
IN THE CURRENT FORECAST. HOWEVER...LATEST TRENDS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
CLOUD-FREE SKY...WHICH LIKELY SUPPORTS DECOUPLING WINDS EARLY
TONIGHT AND FAIR TO STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE THEREFORE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE
LOW 40S INLAND WHERE DECOUPLING IS ANTICIPATED FIRST...AND INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S NEAR THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
POPS REMAIN ESSENTIALLY ZERO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AT THE SURFACE...WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WHILE 23/12Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS A
DEEPENING/ POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER TROUGH...LOW/MID LEVELS REMAIN
VERY DRY. THUS...THE TROUGH SHOULD CROSS THE REGION WITH NOTHING
MORE THAN HIGH CLOUDS. OTHERWISE...TEMPS FRIDAY WILL TOP OUT CLOSE
TO NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...IN THE MID 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
GIVEN THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN IDEAL.
EVEN SO...LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO MID 50S ON THE BEACHES.

IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SATURDAY...HEIGHTS WILL RISE ALOFT
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND INTO THE REGION. LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS AND SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS A BIT ABOVE
NORMAL...IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S.

SATURDAY NIGHT...EXPECT TYPICALLY COOL LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
UPPER 50S...WARMEST ON THE BEACHES. GUIDANCE DEPICTION OF LOW/MID
LEVEL THICKNESS TRENDS HINTS AT A WEAKENING/DRY COLD FRONT SLIPPING
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN GULF
WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND NORTHEAST INTO THE REGION. THUS...THIS WEAK
COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE IN THE VICINITY BY SUNDAY. OFFSHORE
LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND SUNSHINE WILL ONCE AGAIN SUPPORT SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE
WATERS. NORTHWEST FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL BECOME MORE
NORTHERLY TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES
EASTWARD TO OUR NORTH. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE
NIGHT...RANGING BETWEEN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL BE
PRIMARILY MODULATED BY THE POSITION...STRENGTH AND ORIENTATION OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS. NORTH
WINDS 10 KT OR LESS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD BRIEFLY SURGE TO
10-15 KT SATURDAY MORNING AS AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHES OFFSHORE AND THE
SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS INTO THE REGION. A WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY PM INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH OFFSHORE WINDS
10 KT OR LESS GIVING WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS AS THE HIGH EXPANDS NORTH
OF THE WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231715
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
115 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE REGION
AS A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS FURTHER OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED
IN REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
BACK TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK
HEATING HOURS ALONG WITH A WEAK DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
SUPPORTS HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER
THE WATERS FROM THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE A STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT
FIELD REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA NEAR A CUTOFF LOW POSITIONED OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH
A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN
CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB/RFM
MARINE...DPB/RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231430
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...COOL/DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE
REGION WHILE A CUTOFF MID/UPPER LVL LOW SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE
NORTHEAST COAST. AS A RESULT...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN
REGARDS TO A DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK
TO NORTHWEST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A FULL SUN DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS ALONG WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT SUPPORTS TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY. LATEST
1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGEST OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW
70S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17
WITH SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY
DAWN ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM
THE OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SETTLE OVER THE WATERS FROM
THE NORTHWEST. IN GENERAL...NORTH FLOW AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WILL
GRADUALLY BECOME NORTHWEST AND WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS AN ENHANCED
PRESSURE GRADIENT FIELD SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA WITH A CUTOFF LOW
THAT BECOMES POSITIONED FURTHER OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. SEAS WILL
RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO RELAX TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRESSURE PATTERN
IN PLACE AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 231107
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
706 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO BE
DICTATED BY THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW PRES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...A FLATTENING
UPPER RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED
BY AN APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE
GULF COAST REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. A DEEP LAYERED DRY
ATMOSPHERE IS ON TAP TODAY WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS
PRODUCING SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70
DEGREES...REACHING MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS.
A FEW THIN HIGH CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING IN BY LATE DAY PERHAPS
PRODUCING SOME NICE SUNSETS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT WE THINK MOST OF THE CLOUDS COULD BE THIN.
RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS LOOK STRONG BUT WITH THE QUESTION
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OPACITY...WE MADE FEW/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR
LOW TEMP SCHEME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING ONGOING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH 15 KT OF
WIND FROM A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS MORNING. N
FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT RANGE
WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRES PATTERN
DEVELOPING AND SURFACE HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THERE IS BIT A LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IN SOME AREAS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND KEEPING TEMPS FROM
RADIATING LIKE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. BY DAWN...MOST AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS NOTED WELL
INLAND.

THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO BE DICTATED
BY THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW PRES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE GULF
COAST REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. A DEEP LAYERED DRY ATMOSPHERE IS
ON TAP TODAY WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PRODUCING
SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...REACHING
MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING IN BY LATE DAY PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME NICE
SUNSETS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT WE THINK MOST OF THE CLOUDS COULD BE THIN.
RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS LOOK STRONG BUT WITH THE QUESTION
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OPACITY...WE MADE FEW/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR
LOW TEMP SCHEME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING ONGOING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH CLOSE TO
15 KT OF WIND FROM A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. N FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRES PATTERN DEVELOPING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A WEAK
AND DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SATURDAY... FOLLOWED BY
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING WITH SURFACE HIGH PRES OVER THE TENNESSEE
AND OHIO VALLEYS GRADUALLY BUILDING INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS.
THERE IS BIT A LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS
MORNING AND IN SOME AREAS...A LIGHT NORTHERLY WIND KEEPING TEMPS FROM
RADIATING LIKE MORE SHELTERED LOCATIONS. BY DAWN...MOST AREAS WILL
BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S WITH LOCALLY COLDER SPOTS NOTED WELL
INLAND.

THE UPPER PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD CONTINUES TO BE DICTATED
BY THE DEEP CUT-OFF LOW PRES OFF OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT. FOR GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...A FLATTENING UPPER RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS OVER THE REGION TODAY FOLLOWED BY AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH LATE TONIGHT...REACHING THE GULF
COAST REGION BY DAYBREAK ON FRI. A DEEP LAYERED DRY ATMOSPHERE IS
ON TAP TODAY WITH A MODIFIED CONTINENTAL AIR MASS PRODUCING
SUNSHINE AND AFTERNOON TEMPS WARMING TO NEAR 70 DEGREES...REACHING
MAX VALUES IN THE LOWER 70S AT MOST LOCATIONS. A FEW THIN HIGH
CLOUDS COULD BE MOVING IN BY LATE DAY PERHAPS PRODUCING SOME NICE
SUNSETS ACROSS THE REGION.

MODELS INDICATE AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH BUT WE THINK MOST OF THE CLOUDS COULD BE THIN.
RADIATIONAL COOLING PARAMETERS LOOK STRONG BUT WITH THE QUESTION
OF HIGH CLOUD COVER OPACITY...WE MADE FEW/MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO OUR
LOW TEMP SCHEME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A SHALLOW/WEAK RIDGE WILL START THE DAY...THEN AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT/TROUGH WILL MOVE IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE DAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE
CONSISTENTLY BEEN A LITTLE DIFFERENT WITH THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF THIS FEATURE. EITHER WAY...EXPECT THIS UPPER TROUGH TO
COME THROUGH DRY DUE TO VERY LITTLE AVAILABLE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE.
HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH LIGHT NORTH TO
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW. WITH THE SHORT WAVE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE PERFECT FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...BUT GUIDANCE STILL GOING MID 40S INLAND TO LOWER 50S
COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH
WEST-NORTHWEST LOW LEVEL FLOW. CONTINUED DRY WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIP. TEMPERATURES NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SUNDAY NIGHT...A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC WITH SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS...SHOULD GET MINS BACK DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE DEEP LAYER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL SETUP LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW AND A GRADUAL
RETURN OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
ATLANTIC WATERS AND THEN MAINLY NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY. HIGHS BOTH DAYS
ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL
U.S. AND THEN SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD TOWARD THE REGION BY THURSDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HANDLE THE PROGRESSION AND STRENGTH OF THIS
TROUGH DIFFERENTLY. HAVE NOT BEEN ABLE TO SEE THE ECMWF SOLUTION
THIS MORNING...SO MAINLY GOING WITH GFS. THE GFS NOW LOOKS WETTER
THURSDAY AS IT DEEPENS THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE WEST AND DRAWS IN
BETTER DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE FRONT. HAVE KEPT
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS BOTH DAYS FOR NOW GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. TEMPERATURES
A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS
IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF
THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
DECENT MIXING ONGOING OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH CLOSE TO
15 KT OF WIND FROM A GENERALLY NORTHERLY COMPONENT EARLY THIS
MORNING. N FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING IN THE 10 TO 15 KT
RANGE WITH SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS AND SEAS WILL
CONTINUE TO RELAX INTO TONIGHT WITH A WEAKER PRES PATTERN DEVELOPING
AND SURFACE HIGH PRES IN CONTROL.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR
LESS AND SEAS 3 TO 4 FT OR LESS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE GENERALLY
NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH NORTH TO
NORTHWEST FLOW. A SLIGHT SURGE IN THE WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY SATURDAY BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND WEAK COLD FRONT.
BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC WITH
LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 230514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...NO NOTEWORTHY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GOING
FORECAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE REGION
FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POSITIONED
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW TEMPERATURES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. LOWS HAVE BEEN
NUDGED DOWN IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS BASED ON THE COOP
MOS. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME ORIENTED NORTH/SOUTH BETWEEN
THE HIGH AND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL CONTINUE TO MAINLY BE IN THE 10-15 KT
RANGE...EXCEPT A SOLID 15 KT BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS 2-3 FT WITHIN 20
NM AND 3-4 FT BEYOND.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...








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