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000
FXUS62 KCHS 300452
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1252 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST LOOKING FINE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING. NO CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF VERY MINOR INITIALIZATION TWEAKS. READINGS FALLING INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S IN
COOLER WELL INLAND SPOTS WHERE CLOUDS CAN REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE AREA GETTING RAIN IS QUITE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300452
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1252 AM EDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FORECAST LOOKING FINE OVERNIGHT. AREAS OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES
WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSISTING. NO CHANGE TO OUR FORECAST
OUTSIDE OF VERY MINOR INITIALIZATION TWEAKS. READINGS FALLING INTO
THE 60S MOST AREAS WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH SOME LOWER TO MID 60S IN
COOLER WELL INLAND SPOTS WHERE CLOUDS CAN REMAIN FEW TO SCATTERED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 00Z TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV. ISOLATED CONVECTION
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SPOTTY SHOWERS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING BUT POTENTIAL FOR ANY ONE AREA GETTING RAIN IS QUITE LOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300132
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. A LONE
SHOWER WAS ABLE TO POP OVER DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND THE MOUTH OF
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 11
PM.

THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT 250 HPA JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BAGGY
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT/CALM WINDS COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL YIELD A
FAIRLY STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THE
STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE NO IMPACTS
FROM THE WARMER ATLANTIC WILL BE FELT. DID NOT NUDGE TEMPERATURES
DOWN QUITE AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFS-BASED COOP
GUIDANCE...BUT THERMAL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY
THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WATERWAYS...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
UPSTREAM RADARS AT KGSP/KRAX/KMRX AND KFCX REMAIN PPINE WHERE
GUIDANCE DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...SO THESE
SOLUTIONS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRY...SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 300132
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. A LONE
SHOWER WAS ABLE TO POP OVER DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON AND THE MOUTH OF
THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. THIS SHOWER SHOULD DISSIPATE PRIOR TO 11
PM.

THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT 250 HPA JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BAGGY
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT/CALM WINDS COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL YIELD A
FAIRLY STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THE
STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE NO IMPACTS
FROM THE WARMER ATLANTIC WILL BE FELT. DID NOT NUDGE TEMPERATURES
DOWN QUITE AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFS-BASED COOP
GUIDANCE...BUT THERMAL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY
THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WATERWAYS...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
UPSTREAM RADARS AT KGSP/KRAX/KMRX AND KFCX REMAIN PPINE WHERE
GUIDANCE DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...SO THESE
SOLUTIONS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRY...SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 292319
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT 250 HPA JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BAGGY
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT/CALM WINDS COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL YIELD A
FAIRLY STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THE
STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE NO IMPACTS
FROM THE WARMER ATLANTIC WILL BE FELT. DID NOT NUDGE TEMPERATURES
DOWN QUITE AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFS-BASED COOP
GUIDANCE...BUT THERMAL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY
THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WATERWAYS...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
UPSTREAM RADARS AT KGSP/KRAX/KMRX AND KFCX REMAIN PPINE WHERE
GUIDANCE DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...SO THESE
SOLUTIONS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRY...SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS IN PLACE. LOWERED GRIDDED POPS TO ZERO FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 292319
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST
AND A STATIONARY FRONT WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO
THE APPROACH OF A POTENT 250 HPA JET STREAK ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE LONG WAVE TROUGH. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SOMEWHAT BAGGY
PRESSURE PATTERN ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH SUNRISE...WHICH WILL ALLOW THE BOUNDARY LAYER TO
DECOUPLE RATHER QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. LIGHT/CALM WINDS COMBINED
WITH CLEARING SKIES AFTER THE LOSS OF DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL YIELD A
FAIRLY STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THE
STRONG RADIATIONAL REGIME THAT WILL BE IN PLACE...HAVE LOWERED
OVERNIGHT LOWS BY 1-2 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND AREAS WHERE NO IMPACTS
FROM THE WARMER ATLANTIC WILL BE FELT. DID NOT NUDGE TEMPERATURES
DOWN QUITE AS COLD AS SUGGESTED BY THE LATEST GFS-BASED COOP
GUIDANCE...BUT THERMAL TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CAREFULLY
THIS EVENING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S INLAND TO THE
MID 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND WATERWAYS...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP AND MOVE
INTO AREAS NORTH OF THE I-26 CORRIDOR WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT IN
RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE UPPER JET.
UPSTREAM RADARS AT KGSP/KRAX/KMRX AND KFCX REMAIN PPINE WHERE
GUIDANCE DEPICTED SCATTERED SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY...SO THESE
SOLUTIONS LOOK TOO AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE DRY...SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT
THAT IS IN PLACE. LOWERED GRIDDED POPS TO ZERO FOR THE OVERNIGHT
PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS
NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291950
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STATIONARY FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
BEFORE MOVING BACK TOWARD THE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. GUIDANCE HINTS AT
NORTHEAST WINDS PUSHING STRATOCUMULUS LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION ESPECIALLY COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AS
WINDS OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGESTS THAT
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTH
CAROLINA COASTAL COUNTIES/COASTAL WATERS LATE. WHILE THE
DRY/SUBSIDING AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION SUGGESTS THAT THE
CHANCE FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL REMAINS VERY LOW...ONGOING POPS AS
HIGH AS AROUND 10 PERCENT ESPECIALLY NORTHERN COUNTIES/COASTAL
WATERS LATER TONIGHT ARE NOT UNREASONABLE.

BY DAYBREAK...LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 60S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST WE WILL
RETAIN A ZONAL FLOW WHILE DRY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS AT THE SURFACE.
DUE TO THE MID-LEVEL SUBSIDENCE...MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A PRONOUNCED
CAP AROUND 600 MB WHICH SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIP.
NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE MODELS ARE INDICATING SOME RAIN SHOWERS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO WEAK CONVERGENCE WITH A
COASTAL TROUGH. WITH DEWPOINTS MIXING INTO THE LOW/MID 60S THIS DOES
NOT SEEM LIKELY SO WE ARE MAINTAINING A DRY FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS
WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND WITH MID/UPPER 80S NEAR THE COAST
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE DROPS TEMPERATURES IN THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS...WITH MID-LEVEL FLOW BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AND SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVING INTO THE FORECAST
AREA. HOWEVER IN LOW-LEVELS A RIDGE WILL REMAIN JUST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST WITH ENE FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID-LEVEL CAP
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY ON THURSDAY WHILE PWATS INCREASE. THE SEA
BREEZE SHOULD GET GOING EARLIER IN THE DAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
TSTMS POSSIBLE BY THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S.

ON FRIDAY THE UPPER TROUGH FURTHER DEEPENS WHILE THE STATIONARY
FRONT JUST OFFSHORE PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST. INCREASING SW FLOW
ABOVE 850 MB AND EASTERLY FLOW BELOW THAT WILL SUPPORT PWATS
INCREASING TO AROUND 2 INCHES. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THE CAP
ESSENTIALLY GONE...SO AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES WE SHOULD
SEE INCREASING COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. THE SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO
COME INTO PLACE...IN ADDITION TO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE
FRONT. WE MAINTAINED 40 POPS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR INTO THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS NEARBY.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL TRANSLATE TO A TRANQUIL
NIGHT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. VARIABLE WINDS INCLUDING THE
EARLY SEA BREEZE SHOULD GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM NORTHEAST WINDS
10 KT OR LESS TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE DIFFERS REGARDING THE
OVERNIGHT WIND DIRECTION. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1-2 FT
WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS TO 2-3 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

A MODEST E TO NE FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.
SPEEDS WILL BE INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY DUE TO A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT THOUGH WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE. WINDS WILL VEER IN
RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4 FT
SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291652
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1252 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES/AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER
TROUGH...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL TOP OUT IN THE UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S. UNUSUALLY LOW DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE 60S WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR INTO THURSDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE LATE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND AS A
STATIONARY FRONT MEANDERS CLOSE TO THE SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY ONSHORE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING. NE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT WITHIN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT BEYOND
20 NM.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST
PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND
SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TUESDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GREAT SHAPE AND
DID NOT REQUIRE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS.

TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE/SOUTH OF THE REGION
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE 12Z
KCHS RAOB ALREADY DEPICTED PWATS CLOSE TO AN INCH...AND THIS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S/E THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP BASED AROUND 750 MB AS SHOWN BY THE KCHS
MORNING SOUNDING WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. FURTHERMORE...
THE LOW HEIGHTS ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. WHILE EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S WILL PRODUCE MUCH LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AS COMPARED WITH
RECENT DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOLID VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONGOING POST-COLD FROPA SURGE OF N/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT
AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS
WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES...AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT. TONIGHT...THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME NE WITH TIME. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 2-4 FT
THIS MORNING TO 1-2 FT MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST
PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND
SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
949 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OFFSHORE TODAY THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK... BRINGING MORE
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TUESDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED IN GREAT SHAPE AND
DID NOT REQUIRE ANY NOTABLE ADJUSTMENTS.

TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL
REMAIN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE/SOUTH OF THE REGION
AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...THE 12Z
KCHS RAOB ALREADY DEPICTED PWATS CLOSE TO AN INCH...AND THIS DRY
AIR WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD S/E THIS AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP BASED AROUND 750 MB AS SHOWN BY THE KCHS
MORNING SOUNDING WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY. FURTHERMORE...
THE LOW HEIGHTS ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES TODAY. WHILE EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO
LOWER 90S ARE CLOSE TO NORMAL...ANOMALOUS DEWPOINTS MAINLY IN THE
60S WILL PRODUCE MUCH LOWER HEAT INDEX VALUES AS COMPARED WITH
RECENT DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOLID VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
THE ONGOING POST-COLD FROPA SURGE OF N/NE WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT
AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT WILL GIVE WAY TO MUCH MORE TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES THIS AFTERNOON. WITHIN THIS
WEAKENING PRESSURE PATTERN WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE AT TIMES...AND THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT. TONIGHT...THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME NE WITH TIME. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE FROM 2-4 FT
THIS MORNING TO 1-2 FT MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST
PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND
SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND AN INCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. QUITE A CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES THAT WERE 105-110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOLID VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SURGE OF NORTH/NE
WINDS UP AS HIGH AS 15 KT THIS MORNING...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS ON
TAP AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TODAY...THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...STARTING OFF THE DAY 2-4 FT AND BECOMING
1-2 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS
HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
722 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND AN INCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. QUITE A CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES THAT WERE 105-110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SOLID VFR THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SURGE OF NORTH/NE
WINDS UP AS HIGH AS 15 KT THIS MORNING...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS ON
TAP AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TODAY...THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...STARTING OFF THE DAY 2-4 FT AND BECOMING
1-2 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS
HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291046
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND AN INCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. QUITE A CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES THAT WERE 105-110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SURGE OF NORTH/NE
WINDS UP AS HIGH AS 15 KT THIS MORNING...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS ON
TAP AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TODAY...THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...STARTING OFF THE DAY 2-4 FT AND BECOMING
1-2 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS
HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291046
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
646 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND AN INCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY. QUITE A CHANGE FROM RECENT DAYS WITH
HIGHS WELL INTO THE 90S AND HEAT INDICES THAT WERE 105-110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...AND THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE TO NOSE IN
FROM THE EAST. THIS ALLOWS FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE SURFACE
TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A SE
AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID AND
UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF
THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT.
TEMPS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER
RAIN CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...ASIDE FROM SOME LINGERING SURGE OF NORTH/NE
WINDS UP AS HIGH AS 15 KT THIS MORNING...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS ON
TAP AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT TODAY...THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK. WINDS
WILL LIKELY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH THE PREVAILING
DIRECTION WILL INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS
WILL DIMINISH WITH TIME...STARTING OFF THE DAY 2-4 FT AND BECOMING
1-2 FT BY LATE TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS
HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND AN INCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE
SURFACE TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A
SE AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID
AND UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT. TEMPS
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY...THE
PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME...STARTING OFF THE DAY 2-3 FT AND BECOMING 1-2 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS
HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33






000
FXUS62 KCHS 290753
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
353 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND WILL BECOME STATIONARY
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT
WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER TO THE LOCAL AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO TAKE
HOLD ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. AS IT DOES...THE TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG WITH 500 MB HEIGHTS BECOMING 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH A BIT FURTHER OFFSHORE AS MUCH DRIER AIR WORKS INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. IN FACT...PWATS WILL DROP TO AROUND AN INCH THIS
AFTERNOON. THE DRY MOISTURE PROFILES AND A STRONG CAP AROUND 700 MB
WILL KEEP THE FORECAST DRY TODAY. FURTHERMORE...THE LOW HEIGHTS
ALOFT MEAN WE WILL SEE MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY.
LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WHICH IS A COUPLE OF
DEGREES BELOW CLIMATOLOGY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...THE FORECAST WILL REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH THE COLD FRONT
WELL OFFSHORE AND VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS. THE PRESSURE FIELD WILL
BECOME A BIT NEBULOUS AND WEAK...RESULTING IN NEAR CALM CONDITIONS
IN MANY AREAS. MUCH COOLER LOWS ARE ON TAP AS WELL...WITH VALUES
EXPECTED TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

A DEEP LAYERED GYRE WILL REMAIN SPINNING NEAR JAMES BAY IN CANADA
DURING THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK...WITH AN ANOMALOUS
TROUGH TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
SIMULTANEOUSLY AT THE SURFACE WE/LL FIND A STATIONARY FRONT
STRETCHING FROM OFF NEW ENGLAND TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT BEGINS TO TREK BACK TOWARD THE SE COAST
ON FRIDAY. THERE COULD EVEN BE A WEAK WEDGE THAT ATTEMPTS TO FORM
WELL INLAND AS THE FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SE LATE IN THE WEEK.

MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY BEGIN ITS RETURN WEDNESDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC
FLOW VEERS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE. FORCING FROM THE SEA BREEZE
LOOKS TO BE THE ONLY MECHANISM FOR A FEW SHOWERS OR T-STORMS TO POP.
BUT A STRONG CAP REMAINS IN PLACE...SO WE HAVE HELD OFF ON ANY
MENTIONABLE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY BETTER RAIN CHANCES TO OCCUR THURSDAY AS THE
INFLUX OF MARITIME AIR CONTINUES TO INCREASE AND OUR CAP IS WEAKER.
WE/LL SHOW NO HIGHER THAN 20 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD...ALTHOUGH THERE
ARE HINTS OF SOME MID LEVEL FORCING THAT COULD RESULT IN SLIGHTLY
GREATER COVERAGE.

OUR BEST CHANCE OF RAINFALL FOR THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL COME
FRIDAY...AS THE CAP HAS ERODED AND THERE IS A CONTINUED FEED OF
MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC IN THE LOW LEVELS. ADDITIONALLY THE FLOW
ALOFT BACKS MORE TO THE SW WITH SOME RETROGRESSION TO THE LONG WAVE
TROUGH IN THE EAST. THIS PROVIDES FOR A FEED OF GULF MOISTURE...AND
ALSO ALLOWS THE STATIONARY FRONT TO LIFT BACK CLOSER TO THE SE
COAST. WE/LL BUMP POPS INTO THE SOLID CHANCE RANGE AS A RESULT.

THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COMBINED WITH A FETCH OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES WILL HOLD DAYTIME TEMPS DOWN A BIT BELOW
LATE JULY/EARLY AUGUST NORMS. NIGHT TIME LOWS WILL AVERAGE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LATTER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS TO BE RATHER
UNSETTLED WITH THE MEAN LONG WAVE TROUGH POSITION ALOFT TO SHIFT A
HAIR FURTHER WEST...ALLOWING FOR THE STATIONARY FRONT AT THE
SURFACE TO SET UP OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM IN COURTESY OF A
SE AND SOUTH FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A RICH SW FEED IN THE MID
AND UPPER REACHES OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FORCING DUE TO THE PROXIMITY
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE NECESSARY LIFT TO GENERATE
AT LEAST A SOLID CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE THROUGHOUT. TEMPS
WILL BE HELD IN CHECK DUE TO PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND THE HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.

THERE ARE FORTUNATELY STILL NO INDICATIONS THAT ANY SORT OF TROPICAL
OR SUB-TROPICAL LOW WILL FORM ON THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY SINCE IT
LOOKS TO HAVE TOO MUCH INTERACTION WITH THE NEARBY LAND MASS OF THE
SE. HOWEVER...THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC HAS A HIGH
PROBABILITY OF DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE. BUT THIS FEATURE
LOOKS TO CURVE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC...TURNING AWAY FROM CONUS BEFORE
IT GETS MUCH FURTHER WEST THAN ABOUT 70-75 DEGREES AND TO THE NE OF
THE BAHAMAS. SHOULD IT BECOME A NAMED SYSTEM IT WOULD BE BERTHA. IN
2008 BERTHA WAS BOTH THE LONGEST LIVED AND EASTERNMOST DEVELOPING
JULY TROPICAL CYCLONE ON RECORD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY...AND POSSIBLE EVEN
INTO THURSDAY. THEN OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
LATE IN THE WEEK AS A STATIONARY FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT CLOSER TO THE
SE COAST.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...A VERY QUIET PERIOD IS ON TAP AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES EAST OF THE WATERS. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT TODAY...THE
PRESSURE FIELD WILL BECOME QUITE WEAK. WINDS WILL LIKELY BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT TIMES. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS WELL...THOUGH THE PREVAILING DIRECTION WILL
INCREASINGLY BECOME NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. SEAS WILL DIMINISH WITH
TIME...STARTING OFF THE DAY 2-3 FT AND BECOMING 1-2 FT BY LATE
TONIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE FAIRLY
BENIGN WITH A LAX NE TO EAST PRESSURE PATTERN. WE LOOK FOR WINDS
HELD UNDER 10 OR 12 KT AND SEAS MAINLY AROUND 2 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND THE
STATIONARY FRONT TO THE SE LIFTING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD THE AREA WILL
ALLOW FOR A SMALL INCREASE IN THE LOCAL GRADIENT. WINDS AND SEAS
WILL CLIMB A TAD...BUT REMAINING WELL BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO
THE WATERS...PERHAPS EVEN MOVING ONSHORE OF THE SE. WINDS WILL VEER
IN RESPONSE...BUT STILL NOTHING MORE THAN ABOUT 12-18 KT AND 3 OR 4
FT SEAS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290544
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE OUTER REACHES OF OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER SOME
OF THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20
KT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES BY LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEED
DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...WMS/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 290544
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...LINGERING SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
HAS BECOME CONFINED TO THE OUTER REACHES OF OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. MUCH DRIER AIR IS BEGINNING TO FILTER IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT WILL BE QUIET. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST WITH THIS UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER SOME
OF THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20
KT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES BY LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEED
DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...WMS/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 290126
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
926 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 9 PM.

AS OF MID-EVENING...THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WAS SHIFTING INTO
NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SC MIDLANDS AND
CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA /CSRA/. A DEEPENING MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA AND OFFSHORE DURING THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

MAINLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD
FRONT...WITH ANY LINGERING CONVECTION PUSHING OFF THE COAST DURING
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THEN...A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AS WINDS VEER
NORTHWESTERLY. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69
TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR...COVERAGE HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND
BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT NEITHER WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. THEREFORE...I
HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY TIGHT OVER SOME
OF THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THIS
GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20
KT...MAINLY IN THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...THROUGH THE EVENING.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES BY LATE
TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND SPEED
DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...JAQ/WMS/DPB/







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282343
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
743 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT
AS SCHEDULED.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 K/JG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE INLAND ZONES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF BOTH EXISTING
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR...COVERAGE HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND
BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT NEITHER WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. THEREFORE...I
HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282343
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
743 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT
AS SCHEDULED.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 K/JG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE INLAND ZONES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF BOTH EXISTING
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE BIGGEST IMMEDIATE CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT
FROM THUNDERSTORMS. SO FAR...COVERAGE HAS BEEN QUITE ISOLATED AND
BASED ON WHAT IS CURRENTLY UPSTREAM OF THE TERMINALS...THE
EXPECTATION IS THAT NEITHER WILL TAKE A DIRECT HIT. THEREFORE...I
HAVE KEPT VCTS FOR A FEW HOURS. THEREAFTER...SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO VEER AROUND TO BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
NORTHWESTERLY WITH TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL TROUGH
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 282303
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
703 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
HEAT INDEX VALUES HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THIS
EVENING...AND HAVE ALLOWED THE HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM EDT
AS SCHEDULED.

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE
COVERAGE AND STRENGTH OF CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
UNSEASONABLY ROBUST COLD FRONT. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES AROUND 4000 K/JG ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME
DESTABILIZATION THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND
HUMID AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE
BASE OF THE ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO
SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE
HAIL IS ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG
AND AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST
OF THE INLAND ZONES. THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF BOTH EXISTING
STORMS AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN. OVERALL CONSENSUS IS THAT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL GENERALLY SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE
PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL THEN
DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES
BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE
DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO
MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE MAINTAINED TEMPO GROUPS TO NARROW
DOWN PERIODS OF TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO TO THREE
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACCORDING TO
CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE AREA TO THE
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH VFR
WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO 04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 282029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAD BEEN MITIGATING THE STRENGTH OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME HAS EFFECTIVELY BEEN BROKEN...AND CONVECTION HAS
QUICKLY INTENSIFIED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 5000 K/JG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME DESTABILIZATION
THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON
HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE INLAND
ZONES. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAT INDICES STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE BY 4 PM EDT. ANY AREAS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID COOLING. OUTSIDE
OF THESE LOCATIONS...THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM EDT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES
FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE INDICATED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH
04Z...WITH EARLIER IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE MAINTAINED
TEMPO GROUPS TO NARROW DOWN PERIODS OF TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
JUST TWO TO THREE HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 282029
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE CAPPING INVERSION THAT HAD BEEN MITIGATING THE STRENGTH OF
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON
TIME FRAME HAS EFFECTIVELY BEEN BROKEN...AND CONVECTION HAS
QUICKLY INTENSIFIED ACCORDINGLY. LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES
IMPRESSIVE SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 5000 K/JG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA...INDICATIVE OF THE EXTREME DESTABILIZATION
THAT HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE THROUGH THE HOT AND HUMID AFTERNOON
HOURS. MID LEVEL WINDS OF 40 TO 45 KT WITHIN THE BASE OF THE
ANOMALOUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CREATE AMPLE SHEAR TO SUPPORT DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS WITHIN STRONGEST THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A
POTENTIAL HAZARD WITHIN DEEP UPDRAFTS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA UNTIL 9 PM EDT TO
ACCOUNT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG CONVECTION ALONG AND AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT JUST TO THE WEST/NORTHWEST OF THE INLAND
ZONES. EXPECT CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO PEAK LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...GENERALLY SHIFTING
EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONTAL PROGRESSION. SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WILL THEN DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST TOWARD
MIDNIGHT...WITH RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15 PERCENT FOR ALL LAND AREAS
BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.

LATEST SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE HEAT INDICES STILL WITHIN THE
ADVISORY RANGE BY 4 PM EDT. ANY AREAS IMPACTED BY THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL EXPERIENCE RAPID COOLING. OUTSIDE
OF THESE LOCATIONS...THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY LOOKS ON TRACK TO
CONTINUE UNTIL 7 PM EDT. WIND DIRECTIONS WILL STEADILY VEER TO
NORTHWEST/NORTH BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT LATE TONIGHT...AND
EXPECT NOTABLY COOLER CONDITIONS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS NIGHT.
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM AROUND 69 TO 70 DEGREES
FAR INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS OVER THE AREA BEHIND A COLD
FRONT THAT BECOMES STATIONARY WELL SOUTH OF THE REGION. ALOFT...A
BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FOR MID SUMMER
WILL SET UP OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR
COOLER CONDITIONS THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST. HIGH TEMPS COULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS A LIGHT ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS NORTH OF WHAT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE RETURN
OVER THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A
SHOWER AND/OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT
ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OCCURS ALONG A
SEABREEZE.

THURSDAY...THE STATIONARY FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH THROUGHOUT THE DAY WHILE TRANSITIONING INTO A COASTAL TROUGH
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS
MOISTURE DEEPENS WITH PWATS APPROACHING 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES IN
RESPONSE TO THIS FEATURE. COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST NEAR THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATION ALONG THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST.
GIVEN THE LIKELIHOOD OF INCREASING CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT ONSHORE
WINDS DURING PEAK HEATING...OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST AWAY FROM THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED
SHRA/TSRA WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND POSSIBLY LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.
HAVE INDICATED VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH
04Z...WITH EARLIER IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE MAINTAINED
TEMPO GROUPS TO NARROW DOWN PERIODS OF TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO
JUST TWO TO THREE HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED ACCORDING TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY
STRONGER WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT
THE AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK AS A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS
THE MARINE ZONES AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4
FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL THEN SHIFT THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES
BY LATE TONIGHT...ALLOWING WINDS TO VEER TO THE NORTHWEST AND
SPEED DIMINISH.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WINDS EVENTUALLY
VEERING AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW AND REMAINING AT OR BELOW 10 TO
12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A COASTAL TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS LATE THURSDAY OR FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL
WATERS INTO THE WEEKEND. WE WILL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF
THIS SURFACE FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME
EASTERLY COMPONENT AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO
THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281818
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.
THESE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR
MID/LATE SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED
HAVE THE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THUS THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INLAND AREAS
WITHIN BRISK WEST FLOW HAS STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN...EVIDENCE THAT
THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE BY 2 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN
STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS AT
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE ALSO NARROWED DOWN THE ONGOING
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION ARE TOO LOW TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281818
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
218 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE
AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST.
THESE STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR
MID/LATE SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED
HAVE THE ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS. THUS THE ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY
REMAINS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. INITIAL CONVECTION MOVING INTO THE INLAND AREAS
WITHIN BRISK WEST FLOW HAS STRUGGLED TO STRENGTHEN...EVIDENCE THAT
THE CAP IS STILL IN PLACE BY 2 PM EDT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME
TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE
GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD
BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN
STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT BOTH TAF
SITES OUTSIDE OF LATE DAY AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS. WEST WINDS AT
KCHS AND KSAV HAVE BEEN BREEZY TO GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE APPALACHIAN REGION. EXPECT GUSTS
UP TO 25 KT AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA
WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY LATE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. HAVE INDICATED
VCTS AT BOTH TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 20Z THROUGH 04Z...WITH EARLIER
IMPACTS POSSIBLE AT KCHS. HAVE ALSO NARROWED DOWN THE ONGOING
TEMPO GROUP FOR TSRA AND MVFR CONDITIONS TO JUST TWO
HOURS...HOWEVER ADJUSTMENTS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AS CONVECTIVE
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE NOTABLY STRONGER
WINDS AND LOWER FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE
AREA TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WITH THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT...WITH VFR WEATHER AND STEADILY VEERING WINDS AFTER 03Z TO
04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE IN TIMING
AND DURATION ARE TOO LOW TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281523
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. THESE STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR MID/LATE
SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED HAVE THE
ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. DESPITE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS THE
ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN
EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT LATER TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH ENOUGH
TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 22Z THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH AT BOTH
SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS...CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD HAVE BEEN
AVERAGED FOR BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE CLARITY AS
NEEDED. ESSENTIALLY VFR WEATHER WILL AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25 KT
AT TIMES...BUT PREFER NOT TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281523
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1123 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS
THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK...BRINGING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LATEST MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE APPALACHIAN REGION BY LATE THIS MORNING...WITH A
PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHED ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE NORTH WILL STEADILY LIFT
THROUGH THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGE AMPLIFYING
UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ENTIRE EAST COAST. THESE STRONG
SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES ARE QUITE ANOMALOUS FOR MID/LATE
SUMMER...AND THUS THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL INDEED HAVE THE
ENERGY TO EVENTUALLY PROGRESS INTO AND SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOLID WEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL
MAINTAIN DRY MID LAYER AIR AND SUPPORT A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
LINGERING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO
THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 DEGREES INLAND AND LOW 90S NEAR THE
COAST DUE TO THE WARM WEST FLOW...A PINNED SEABREEZE...AND EVEN
SOME PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION EFFECTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TO MID 70S DURING PEAK HEATING...AND WHEN COMBINED WITH THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110
DEGREES FOR MANY LOCATIONS LATER TODAY. DESPITE LINGERING DEBRIS
CLOUDS FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN TENNESSEE
VALLEY...HOURLY TEMPERATURES ARE UNAFFECTED AT THIS TIME. THUS THE
ONGOING HEAT ADVISORY IS ON TRACK.

THE NEXT MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE STEADILY APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THE MID LEVEL CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME QUITE UNSTABLE BEFORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY INITIATES. THESE SOUNDINGS ARE OFTEN
DESCRIBED AS HAVING A LOADED GUN SIGNATURE...WITH NOTABLE
INSTABILITY ABOVE THE CAPPING INVERSION...THAT ONCE BROKEN WILL
ALLOW ACCESS TO A HIGHLY UNSTABLE AND CONVECTIVELY CONDUCIVE
ENVIRONMENT. ALTHOUGH THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES IN HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE
BULK OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COULD BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE
AFTERNOON...POSSIBLY AFTER 4 OR 5 PM...WHEN STRONGER DYNAMICS CAN
EFFECTIVELY BREAK THE CAPPING INVERSION.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED A SLIGHT RISK OVER THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TODAY...TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE UNSEASONABLY
STRONG FORCING AND DYNAMICS ACCOMPANYING THIS FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE
CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL AND UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF
THE AREA...YET CONSIDERING 40 TO 45 KT MID LEVEL WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...DAMAGING
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE STRONGEST STORMS. LARGE HAIL IS
ALSO A POTENTIAL HAZARD...AS HAIL CAPE VALUES REACH OR EXCEED 1000
J/KG BY 5 PM EDT. THIS COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITY AND WIND
SHEAR WILL LEAD TO A MULTICELLULAR CONVECTIVE MODE WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE CONVECTION DEVELOPS
AND SPREADS IN COVERAGE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...THE SEVERE THREAT
WILL CONTINUE AS STORMS PROGRESS EAST/SOUTHEAST WITH THE COLD
FRONT AND EVENTUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE
COASTLINE TOWARD THE EVENING HOURS DUE TO INTERACTION WITH THE
PINNED SEABREEZE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE THIS EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. RAIN
CHANCES DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT...AND
A DRY FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND
DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT. EXPECT LOWS
IN THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON...WITH
SURFACE WINDS TO QUICKLY INCREASING AND BECOMING GUSTY THROUGH
THE DAY. WINDS WILL PEAK AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT LATER TODAY.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH COULD IMPACT BOTH
KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH ENOUGH
TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 22Z THROUGH 03Z TO 04Z...WITH A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH AT BOTH
SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS...CONDITIONS COULD BE WORSE
THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND GUSTS FROM ANY
DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD HAVE BEEN
AVERAGED FOR BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE CLARITY AS
NEEDED. ESSENTIALLY VFR WEATHER WILL AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS COULD GUST TO NEAR 25 KT
AT TIMES...BUT PREFER NOT TO RAISE ANY ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3 TO 5 FT
BEYOND. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS
FROM THE LAND TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO QUICKLY CLIMB AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21-22Z THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH EVEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THROUGH AT
BOTH SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS THERE EVEN MIGHT BE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ARE AN
AVERAGE FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE
CLARITY AS NEEDED. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VFR WEATHER WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE START THE 12Z TAF CYCLE WITH VFR CONDITIONS AND EXPECT SURFACE
WINDS TO QUICKLY CLIMB AND BECOME GUSTY THROUGH THE DAY. THIS WILL
BE TRIGGERED BY STRONG HEATING AND DEEP MIXING. WINDS WILL PEAK
DURING THE AFTERNOON AT AROUND 20 OR 25 KT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE TOWARD THE TERMINALS LATE IN THE
DAY AND PUSH INTO THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL
PRECEDE AND ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...SOME OF WHICH LOOK TO IMPACT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV. CONFIDENCE AND PROBABILITIES ARE THUS HIGH
ENOUGH TO SHOW VCTS FROM ABOUT 21-22Z THROUGH 03-04Z...WITH EVEN A
PERIOD OF MVFR CONDITIONS AS THE CONVECTION MOVES ON THROUGH AT
BOTH SITES. DEPENDING UPON FUTURE TRENDS THERE EVEN MIGHT BE WORSE
CONDITIONS THAN NOW IN THE FORECAST...INCLUDING STRONGER WIND
GUSTS FROM ANY DIRECT IMPACTS DUE TO THE SHRA/TSRA.

CONDITIONS FOR THE LATER PART OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD ARE AN
AVERAGE FOR THE SAKE OF BREVITY...AND LATER SHIFTS CAN ADD MORE
CLARITY AS NEEDED. BUT THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT VFR WEATHER WILL
AGAIN PREVAIL AFTER 03-04Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 281048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
648 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT
LAKES AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING
SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT
SLIDES INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO
CROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY
FOCUSES ON TWO MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING
HEAT ADVISORY...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100
IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL HAVE
FAILED TO FALL BELOW 80 THIS MORNING. THESE FORECAST HIGHS
COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WILL RESULT IN HEAT
INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. THE HEAT
ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE. THE ONLY THING TO
WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE OVERNIGHT
UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS
A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST. REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL
BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT THE LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280745
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
345 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT AND
BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK...BRINGING WITH IT THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME UNSETTLED
WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS CONTINUES TO DECREASE IN INTENSITY AS IR SATELLITE
CLOUD TOPS ARE WARMING AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY DIMINISHES. MODELS ALL
SHOW ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPSTREAM
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH SUNRISE AS A RESULT. THE ONLY IMPACT FROM THIS
UPSTREAM ACTIVITY IS INCREASING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS WHICH MAY
EVENTUALLY PLAY A ROLE IN THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.

TODAY...THE VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED CLOSED LOW EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE EASTERN CONUS LONGWAVE WILL TRACK EAST OF THE GREAT LAKES
AS THE OVERALL LONGWAVE DIGS FURTHER SOUTHWARD. A DEEPENING SURFACE
LOW WILL MOVE INTO NEW ENGLAND AS ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES
INTO THE LEE OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND BEGINS TO CROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THE FORECAST FOR TODAY FOCUSES ON TWO
MAIN IMPACTS...WARM TEMPERATURES AND A RESULTING HEAT ADVISORY...AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND JUST
AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD FRONT. FIRST REGARDING THE HEAT...NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST WHICH CONTINUES TO
FEATURE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100 IN SOME AREAS. WE WILL GET A
WARM START AS MANY AREAS WILL FAIL TO FALL BELOW 80 BEFORE SUNRISE.
THESE FORECAST HIGHS COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S
WILL RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES AT 110 FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
AFTERNOON. THE HEAT ADVISORY AND ITS VALID TIME IS IN GOOD SHAPE.
THE ONLY THING TO WATCH IS THE CHANCE THAT LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE OVERNIGHT UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY LIMIT INSOLATION JUST
ENOUGH TO KEEP HIGHS A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE FORECAST.
REGARDLESS IT WILL STILL BE VERY HOT AND HUMID.

FINALLY...THE OVERALL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON
TRACK. AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS AFTERNOON...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT.
THE SUITE OF MODELS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND ALSO
SEEMS TO AGREE ON A CONVECTIVE INITIATION TIME AROUND 21Z. WHEN
CONVECTION DOES BEGIN TO DEVELOP IT WILL LIKELY START RIGHT OVER THE
FORECAST AREA OR PERHAPS ALONG THE BORDER WITH THE MIDLANDS. WHEN
THESE STORMS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...THE NEAR STORM ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE PRETTY IMPRESSIVE FOR LATE JULY. MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT STEEP LAPSE RATES AND EVEN THE PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED
LAYER. CAPE VALUES ARE PROGGED TO BE IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE
WITH LIFTED INDICES AROUND -9. HAIL CAPES AND DCAPES ARE EXPECTED TO
EXCEED 1000...LEADING TO THE THREAT FOR BOTH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS. FURTHERMORE...A 40-45 KT MID LEVEL SPEED MAX COINCIDENT
WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT WILL RESULT IN 0-6KM SHEAR ON THE
ORDER OF 25-30 KNOTS. THIS COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
LEAD TO THE FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE BEING MULTICELLS WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES. ONCE STORM STORMS DEVELOP
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...THE SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING AS THESE STORMS MOVE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST AND
EVENTUALLY OFFSHORE. THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS SOLIDLY WITHIN THE
DAY 1 SLIGHT RISK FROM SPC WITH INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF BOTH A
WIND AND HAIL THREAT. A FEW ROTATING STORMS CANNOT BE RULED
OUT...ESPECIALLY AS STORMS GET CLOSER TO THE COAST AND INTERACT WITH
THE PINNED SEA BREEZE...BUT THE OVERALL TORNADO THREAT APPEARS LOW.
THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT FOR THE SEVERE RISK REVOLVES
AROUND THE AFOREMENTIONED LINGERING DEBRIS HIGH CLOUDS. THIS COULD
POSSIBLY REDUCE THE SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY AND LOWER THE COVERAGE
AND STRENGTH OF STORMS. THE THINKING THOUGH IS THAT ANY LINGERING
HIGH CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY IN THE MORNING PRIOR TO PEAK
HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE AT ITS PEAK IN
INTENSITY AND COVERAGE IN THE EVENING BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. POPS
DROP OFF QUICKLY FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND A DRY
FORECAST IS IN PLACE BY LATE TONIGHT. NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR
WILL WORK ITS WAY IN BEHIND THE FRONT. LOOK FOR LOWS IN THE UPPER
60S FAR INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST.

A BROAD AND HIGHLY ANOMALOUS TROUGH FOR MID SUMMER WILL SET UP OVER
THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...ONE THAT IS MORE THAN 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THIS SENDS THE COLD FRONT OFF
THE EASTERN SEABOARD AS IT STALLS OUT ROUGHLY FROM BERMUDA TO
EXTREME SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

TUESDAY...INITIALLY THERE IS A BREAK FROM OUR HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS OF LATE WITH A VERY NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN AIR MASS. THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ABOVE 8-10K FT WITH PWATS POSSIBLE DROPPING
TO AROUND 1 INCH...OR EVEN MORE THAN 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW
NORMAL. SUFFICE TO SAY THERE IS NO RISK FOR SHOWERS AND T-STORMS.
ADDITIONALLY...QUITE A BIT OF COOLER AIR ARRIVES IN WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT AS 850 MB TEMPS DOWN TO AROUND 14-16C. THIS EQUATES TO TEMPS
SOME 6-10 DEGREES LOWER THAN TODAY AND LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT GETTING
DOWN INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S MOST LOCALES INLAND FROM US-17.

WEDNESDAY...AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
THERE IS A SUBTLE RISE IN MOISTURE FROM OFF THE OCEAN. THIS MIGHT BE
ENOUGH TO POP A COUPLE OF SHOWERS ON THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY...BUT
SINCE THERE IS STILL A FAIRLY SUBSTANTIAL SUBSIDENCE CAP IN PLACE
THIS SUPPORTS POPS NO MORE THAN A SILENT 14 PERCENT. SIMILAR 850 MB
TEMPS AND LOW LEVEL THICKNESS TO THE PREVIOUS DAY...SO LITTLE CHANGE
IN TEMPS.

THURSDAY...THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE SW ATLANTIC WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT A LITTLE BACK TOWARD THE SE STATES AS IT STARTS ITS TRANSITION
INTO A COASTAL TROUGH. THERE IS A FURTHER INFLUX OF MARITIME
MOISTURE WITHIN AN EAST-SE SYNOPTIC FLOW...BOOSTING PWATS BACK UP TO
WHAT IS MORE TYPICAL. FORCING FROM THIS NEARBY SURFACE FEATURE AND
THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE ENOUGH TO TRIGGER 20-30 POPS...HIGHEST OVER
EASTERN SECTIONS WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE
REALIZED. AN INCREASE IN BOTH CLOUD COVER AND RAIN CHANCES WILL
KNOCK TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE NEARBY ATLANTIC WILL HAVE ALLOWED FOR A
WELL PRONOUNCED COASTAL TROUGH TO SET UP NEAR OR JUST EAST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS LATE IN THE WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN UNUSUALLY MID-SUMMERTIME HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE
COULD ATTEMPT TO SET UP SHOP INLAND. UPSTAIRS THE PROMINENT AND
PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL AMPLIFY A BIT
FURTHER...CAUSING SW TRAJECTORIES TO ADVECT MOISTURE IN OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO. THESE FACTORS WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS LATE IN THE WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WHICH IN
TURN WILL KEEP MAX TEMPS DOWN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. AT
PRESENT THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF ANY SORT OF LOW DEVELOPING ON
THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT THERE ARE HINTS THAT THE TROPICAL WAVE
CURRENTLY IN THE EASTERN ATLANTIC MAY HAVE DEVELOPED INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS IT TURNS NORTH OF THE
CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND STAYS WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WITH THE
EASTERN TROUGH STILL ANCHORED IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AT LEAST
OCCASIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL RETURN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK AS
SHRA/TSRA MOVE BACK INTO THE AREA WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH TO DEVELOP
OFF THE SE COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TO TIGHTEN ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. THE
TIGHTENING GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ELEVATED SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE THROUGH THE EVENING. IN FACT...MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WATERS AND THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS MAY GUST TO NEAR 25 KT AT
TIMES...BUT WILL NOT HOIST ANY ADVISORIES WITH THIS PACKAGE. SEAS
WILL GENERALLY BE 2-4 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 3-5 FT BEYOND. STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE WATERS FROM THE LAND
TONIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND DIMINISH IN SPEED.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MARINE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE RELATIVELY
QUIET DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...WITH WINDS TO EVENTUALLY VEER
AROUND TO AN EASTERLY FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY UNDER 10 OR 12 KT
AND SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AN INVERTED TROUGH /ALSO KNOWN AS A
COASTAL TROUGH/ WILL HAVE DEVELOPED NEARBY EITHER LATE THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY AND WILL PERSIST CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS INTO THE
WEEKEND. WE/LL PROBABLY STAY ON THE WEST SIDE OF THIS SURFACE
FEATURE...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT WINDS WILL BE SOME EASTERLY COMPONENT
AT LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE SEAS WILL BE
HELD AT OR BELOW 3 FT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL HAVE
RETURNED FOR LATE IN THE WEEK DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE TROUGH AND
THE ONSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...33
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...33/BSH
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 280553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR. THE ONLY THING OF REAL NOTE IS
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS BEEN ON A DISSIPATING
TREND AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS SUPPORTING BY THE MODELS AND
NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE MILD OUT EVEN FOR LATE JULY. RIGHT
NOW MANY AREAS ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
WHICH IS STILL GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS62 KCHS 280553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...ALL IS QUIET ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WITH NO
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON RADAR. THE ONLY THING OF REAL NOTE IS
THE INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. THE CONVECTION ITSELF HAS BEEN ON A DISSIPATING
TREND AS NOTED BY WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND DECREASING LIGHTNING
ACTIVITY. THIS DIMINISHING TREND IS SUPPORTING BY THE MODELS AND
NONE OF IT IS EXPECTED TO SURVIVE AND IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE STILL QUITE MILD OUT EVEN FOR LATE JULY. RIGHT
NOW MANY AREAS ARE STILL REPORTING TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S
WHICH IS STILL GIVING US HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE THROUGH SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH
06Z TUESDAY. THE BIGGEST FORECAST CONCERN WITH THIS SET OF TAFS IS
THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS FROM THE
LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. I HAVE NOT MADE MUCH CHANGE
FROM THE 00Z TAFS...AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE GUSTY
WESTERLY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
VICINITY STARTING IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. I STILL HAVE VCTS
STARTING AROUND 21Z-22Z...AND THEN ENDING AROUND 02Z-03Z. GIVEN
THAT THE COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SCATTERED...DID NOT FEEL
COMFORTABLE ADDING TEMPO GROUPS FOR DIRECT IMPACTS AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR GAZ087-088-099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING
     FOR SCZ040-042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND THE SOLID WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...BUT WILL
SHOW A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A VERY MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY NOW WITH SO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1017 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING INTO THE UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA LATE THIS
EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE
NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE STRONG INVERSION DEPICTED ON THE
00Z KCHS SOUNDING AND THE SOLID WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN
PLACE. AS A RESULT WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-FREE FORECAST...BUT WILL
SHOW A NON-ZERO PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT.
CONSIDERABLE HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION WILL SHIFT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AND HAVE
ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER FORECAST ACCORDINGLY.

A VERY MILD NIGHT IS ON TAP...ESPECIALLY NOW WITH SO MUCH IN THE
WAY OF DEBRIS CLOUDINESS EXPECTED. THE FORECAST SHOWS TEMPERATURES
ONLY FALLING TO LOWS IN THE UPPER 70S...WITH LOWER 80S CLOSER TO
THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH
MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280018
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE SOLID
WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280018
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
818 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS FLAT UPPER RIDGING
EXTENDING SOUTH OF THE REGION FROM A STRONG RIDGE CENTERED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION/SOUTHERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND THIS WILL
AMPLIFY THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES LATER TONIGHT. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION TONIGHT...WHILE ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS
WITHIN THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH.

HIGHER RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODES INDICATE THAT THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION CROSSING THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WILL CONTINUE TO
DROP SOUTH AND EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH BEFORE
REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...GIVEN THE SOLID
WEST/NORTHWEST DEEP LAYER FLOW IN PLACE...WILL MAINTAIN A RAIN-
FREE FORECAST. HOWEVER DO EXPECT HIGH LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM
THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION
BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT WINDS
UPWARDS OF 30-35 KT AT 2 KFT BY 06Z. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS APPEAR
TO FALL JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUDING LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
IN THE FORECAST SINCE WINDS AT THE SURFACE WILL NOT DECOUPLE.
THESE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO MIX TO THE SURFACE IN THE
FORM OF HIGHER GUSTS UPWARDS OF 18-23 KT WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY...GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT LATE IN THE DAY
MONDAY...AND HAVE INCLUDED VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH
TERMINALS AFTER 21Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...WMS/DPB
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272043
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
443 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY AND BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST
COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART
OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 272028
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272028
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
428 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A FLAT UPPER RIDGE
STRETCHING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A ROBUST LOW SYSTEM
PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND REGIONS. AT THE
SURFACE...THE INLAND TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY ALONG THE EAST COAST
AHEAD OF A POTENT COLD FRONT FAR UPSTREAM.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SOLID WESTERLY DEEP LAYER FLOW PERSISTING
THROUGH THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD...MAINTAINING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE THUS INDICATED RAIN CHANCES AT ZERO
PERCENT AND ONLY A FEW HIGH CLOUDS FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS TO THE
NORTH. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GRADUALLY
MODERATE AFTER SUNSET...YET TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE
UPPER 70S INLAND TO THE LOWER 80S ALONG THE COAST. THESE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINIMUMS FOR JULY 28TH. REFER TO THE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WELL AHEAD
OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR NORTH AND NORTHWEST THROUGHOUT
THE DAY. STRONG SFC HEATING UNDER A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IN
ADDITIONAL TO COMPRESSIONAL HEATING ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL
FAVOR SOME OF THE WARMEST TEMPS WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS YEAR...WITH
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 90S AWAY FROM
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WE COULD SEE A FEW LOCATIONS HIT 100 DEGREES WHILE
SKIES REMAIN MOSTLY SUNNY UNDER A MODERATELY STRONG CAPPING INVERSION.
THIS AMOUNT OF HEATING ALONG WITH SFC DEWPTS REMAINING IN THE LOW/MID
70S UNDER THE CAP SUPPORTS HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-110 DEGREES
OVER A LARGE PORTION OF THE CWA. A HEAT ADVISORY WILL THEREFORE BE
IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA BETWEEN 11 AM TO 7 PM. ONCE WE GET INTO MID
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS...THE MAIN CONCERN IN THE FORECAST
WILL SWITCH OVER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FOR SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE
AREA AS WE HEAD INTO MID AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE CAP BREAKS
OVER THE REGION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. INVERTED-V
SOUNDINGS...SBCAPES BETWEEN 3000-4000 J/KG...LIFTED INDEX VALUES
NEAR -10 C...FAVORABLE LOW AND MID LVL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS HAIL
CAPE AND DCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG SUPPORT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS BY MONDAY
EVENING. COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED INITIALLY...BUT IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER INTENSIFICATION AND
COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS SEEMS APPARENT AS A LARGE MID LVL TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE DIGS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS IN RESPONSE TO A H25
JET AND SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE DIGGING
TROUGH WILL FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT SOUTH/SOUTHEAST INTO PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR SUNSET...THEN INTO SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...THE LARGEST COVERAGE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WOULD OCCUR BETWEEN 7 PM AND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE RISK LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER COASTAL GEORGIA. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES
ALONG WITH THE MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND EVENT. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AS PWATS APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE
FROPA OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO LOW/MID
70S...COOLEST BEHIND THE FRONT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MUCH MORE QUIET INTO
MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS
BY TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 ON TUESDAY...HIGHEST AWAY FROM
THE COAST. BY WEDNESDAY...WE COULD SEE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS DEVELOP
NORTH OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE SETUP SHOULD FAVOR SLIGHTLY MORE MOISTURE OVER
THE REGION...A DRY FORECAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE. HOWEVER...A SHOWER
OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN NOT BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT ALONG THE
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THE LOW LEVEL JET
WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY
06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING. CONSIDERING THAT SURFACE WINDS WILL NOT
DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA
FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF AN INTENSIFYING LOW SYSTEM FAR TO THE
NORTH...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE APPALACHIANS...WILL
SUPPORT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.
THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE TO 25 TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT
ACCORDINGLY...HOWEVER EXPECT ONLY A PORTION OF THESE WINDS TO MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE WITHIN A STRONG WARM ADVECTION REGIME. HAVE
THUS INDICATED SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS
TONIGHT...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 4 TO 5 FT IN THE OFFSHORE ZONES.
ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS UP TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA
ZONES...CONFIDENCE IN THE FREQUENCY OF THESE WINDS IS TOO LOW TO
ISSUE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS BETWEEN 15-20 KTS AND SEAS AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT.
HOWEVER...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT THROUGH
THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS...RESULTING IN WHAT WILL LIKELY
BE SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS OVER THE WATERS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR GAZ087-088-
     099>101-114>119-137>141.
SC...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 7 PM EDT MONDAY FOR SCZ040-042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...DPB/WMS
MARINE...DPB/WMS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271757
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...CONFINING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOLID
WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ADDITIONALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. WILL INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL
LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. TRENDS WILL
STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY
SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND HUMID TO
WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY 06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM FROM 2 TO
4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271757
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
157 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE THE
DOMINANT FEATURE ALOFT FOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...CONFINING ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SOLID
WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION
WILL ADDITIONALLY SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL FALL BELOW 1.5
INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT
BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE
ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. WILL INDICATE
HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER
80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST
THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT
INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL
LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES. TRENDS WILL
STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY
SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.
EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY HOT AND HUMID TO
WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. DECENT MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SUPPORT BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 20 KT THROUGH
SUNSET. THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL FURTHER INCREASE OVERNIGHT AND
SUPPORT 25 TO 30 KT WINDS AT 2 KFT BY 06Z EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
CONSIDERING THAT WINDS WILL NOT DECOUPLE TONIGHT...WIND SHEAR
VALUES WILL FALL SHORT OF CRITERIA FOR INCLUSION IN THE TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM FROM 2 TO
4 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST STRETCHING DOWN TOWARD LAKE MARION...INITIATED BY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LIKELY CONFINING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD SHIFT INTO NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT. SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL OTHERWISE SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING
FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST...AND THUS PREFER TO MAKE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. WILL INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY
ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING
WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES. TRENDS WILL STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
HOT AND HUMID TO WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE
TO THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO 15 TO 20 KT WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND
SHEAR...WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1 TO 2 KFT
AFTER 05Z TO 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271501
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1101 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE
REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND
SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY
MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE MORNING RADAR TRENDS SHOW ISOLATED CONVECTION JUST TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST STRETCHING DOWN TOWARD LAKE MARION...INITIATED BY
PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY RAPIDLY SHIFTING TOWARD THE EAST
COAST. FLAT UPPER RIDGING CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL
MAINTAIN CONTROL OF MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA TODAY...LIKELY CONFINING THE BULK OF SHOWER ACTIVITY NORTH
OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE CORE OF THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY. ALTHOUGH
AN ISOLATED SHOWER COULD SHIFT INTO NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY
DURING THE NEXT HOUR...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN RAIN CHANCES BELOW 15
PERCENT. SOLID WEST FLOW IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS AND A STRONG
CAPPING INVERSION WILL OTHERWISE SUPPRESS SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL
FALL BELOW 1.5 INCHES BY LATE AFTERNOON ACCORDING TO MODEL
FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH...LENDING
FURTHER CONFIDENCE IN THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE FORECAST.

THE MAIN CONCERN FOR TODAY WILL BE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS UNDER
THE DEEP OFFSHORE FLOW AND RISING THICKNESS VALUES. HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS ARE CURRENTLY ON TRACK WITH THE
FORECAST...AND THUS PREFER TO MAKE NO CHANGES WITH THE LATE
MORNING UPDATE. WILL INDICATE HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. NEARLY
ALL GUIDANCE SOURCES SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MIXING
WITHIN OFFSHORE FLOW TO ALLOW DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S DURING THE TIME OF PEAK HEATING THIS
AFTERNOON. THUS...HEAT INDICES OF 105 TO 108 DEGREES WILL FALL
JUST SHORT OF THE LOCAL LATE-SEASON HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES. TRENDS WILL STILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS...AS ANY SLIGHT VARIATION IN TEMPERATURES OR
DEWPOINTS...ESPECIALLY IF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLS IN CONJUNCTION
WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...COULD BRING CONDITIONS INTO HEAT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. EITHER WAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE SUFFICIENTLY
HOT AND HUMID TO WARRANT EXTRA CAUTION WHEN OUTSIDE THIS
AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY TO NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE.
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND ALONG WITH A
SPARSE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE...SUGGESTS A CONTINUATION OF RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS. CONSIDERING A BUILD UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME
HEAT...ALONG WITH AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO ONLY FALL INTO THE MID OR
UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. IN
ADDITION...THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS COULD BE MORE ABUNDANT...FURTHER EVIDENCE OF A VERY WARM
NIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES MUCH OF THE NIGHT REMAINING ABOVE 80
DEGREES. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS FOR
JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE
TO THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TAPPING INTO 15 TO 20 KT WINDS
WITHIN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AND ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND
SHEAR...WINDS OF 30 TO 35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1 TO 2 KFT
AFTER 05Z TO 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME LOCATED WITHIN A FAIRLY
TIGHT GRADIENT BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL
ATLANTIC RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS AVERAGING 12 TO 17
KT...WITH EVEN SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2 TO 4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AND PARTS OF
CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT IS ANTICIPATED IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE- ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND SHEAR...WINDS OF
30-35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1-2K FT AFTER 05-06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT WE ANTICIPATE IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON WITH DEEP MIXING TO TAP INTO 15-20 KT WINDS WITHIN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER. ALTHOUGH NOT TECHNICALLY WIND SHEAR...WINDS OF
30-35 KT WILL BE OBSERVED DOWN NEAR 1-2K FT AFTER 05-06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES.
GEOSTROPHIC WINDS TOP OUT AT 25-30 KT...BUT GIVEN THE WARM
ADVECTION REGIME ONLY A PORTION OF THIS WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SURFACE OF THE WATER. WHAT WE ANTICIPATE IS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB
THROUGH THE NIGHT...UP TO SOME 17-22 KT. GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY
REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT THEIR FREQUENCY AND
SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FLAGS. LATER FORECAST SHIFTS WILL RE-ADDRESS THIS
SITUATION TO SEE IF ANY ADVISORIES WOULD BE NECESSARY. SEAS WILL
CLIMB ANOTHER FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
HELP TO ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271056
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
656 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX SYSTEMS IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND OHIO VALLEY WOULD
BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR TO PREVENT THE FORECAST AREA FROM
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING MID AND UPPER 90S INLAND FROM THE BARRIER
ISLANDS...WITH EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW
SPOTS OF THE SW INTERIOR OF THE CWFA COULD HIT THE CENTURY MARK!
DEW POINTS WILL MIX OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE
TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK
HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT
QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110 DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER
SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY. SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR
DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN
CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY
WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH
WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCE THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF THE EXTREME DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER
NEVER FULLY DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER
THAN THE MID OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST.
PLUS THERE IS THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
COULD BE IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR
IT TO BE A VERY WARM NIGHT...WITH MUCH OF THE NIGHT TO REMAIN
ABOVE 80 DEGREES! THESE TEMPS WILL BE CLOSE TO RECORD HIGH MINS
FOR THE JULY 28TH. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 13Z...VFR
WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z MONDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV DUE TO
THE ABSENCE OF CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...MOST ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES
HELP TO ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 27TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 2005.
KCXM...82 SET IN 2005.
KSAV...80 SET IN 1885.

RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPS FOR JULY 28TH...
KCHS...79 SET IN 1981.
KCXM...83 SET IN 1999.
KSAV...81 SET IN 1878.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT/S AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY START TO
THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S IF NOT HIGHER...AND
SIMILAR DEW POINT VALUES. LIGHT FOG WILL BE AROUND...BUT WITH
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADDING
TO THE FORECAST. WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH MINS AT
CHARLESTON /79 SET IN 2005/ AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /82 SET IN
2005/.

TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WOULD BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING 95-100 INLAND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH
EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS WILL MIX
OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX
HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER
WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS
EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID
OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS WITH READINGS SUCH AS THIS...CHARLESTON
AIRPORT OF 79 SET IN 1981...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH 83 SET IN
1999 AND THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT WITH 81 SET IN 1878. PLUS THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD BE IN
GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR IT TO BE A
VERY WARM NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO ENHANCE
SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 270803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
TODAY...THEN GIVE WAY TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL APPROACH
FROM THE NW AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY. THE FRONT WILL BECOME
STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK...THEN SLOWLY MOVE BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST AS A
COASTAL TROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...IT/S AN EXTREMELY WARM AND MUGGY START TO
THE DAY...WITH TEMPS IN THE MID OR UPPER 70S IF NOT HIGHER...AND
SIMILAR DEW POINT VALUES. LIGHT FOG WILL BE AROUND...BUT WITH
VISIBILITIES NO LOWER THAN 2-3 MILES THIS DOES NOT WARRANT ADDING
TO THE FORECAST. WE COULD FLIRT WITH THE RECORD HIGH MINS AT
CHARLESTON /79 SET IN 2005/ AND IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON /82 SET IN
2005/.

TODAY...WE/LL BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF FLAT RIDGING ALOFT AS A
CLOSED LOW DIGS SE THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN GREAT
LAKES. AT THE SURFACE A LEE SIDE TROUGH IS PREVALENT...WHILE THE
SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IS YET AGAIN FAR TO THE SOUTH ACROSS
SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE KEYS.

A CROSS-SECTION OF THE ATMOSPHERE FINDS AN OFFSHORE WEST/NW FLOW
THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE VERTICAL RESULTING IN A STRONG DOWNSLOPE
FLOW OFF THE APPALACHIANS. THIS ALONG WITH AN EXPANSION OF LOW
LEVEL THICKNESS AND 850 MB TEMPS THAT LOOK TO PEAK AROUND 22-23C
SUPPORTS AN EXTREMELY HOT DAY...MAYBE EVEN OUR HOTTEST DAY OF THE
SUMMER SO FAR FOR MANY OF US. DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN THE VIRGINIA/S AND KENTUCKY EARLY THIS
MORNING WOULD BE THE ONLY NEGATIVE FACTOR FROM THE FORECAST AREA
ACHIEVING MAX TEMPS SUPPORTED BY THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS SCHEME.
THUS WE ARE SHOWING 95-100 INLAND FROM THE BARRIER ISLANDS...WITH
EVEN UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S AT THE BEACHES. DEW POINTS WILL MIX
OUT ENOUGH INLAND WITH THE OFFSHORE TRAJECTORIES...DOWN IN THE
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS EQUATES TO MAX
HEAT INDICES OF 105-108 DEGREES...NOT QUITE TO OUR CRITERIA OF 110
DEGREES THIS LATE INTO THE SUMMER SEASON FOR A HEAT ADVISORY.
SHOULD TEMPS CLIMB EVEN HIGHER AND/OR DEW POINTS NOT FALL AS
LOW...ESPECIALLY IF THEY POOL IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE RESULTANT
SEA BREEZE...THEN A HEAT ADVISORY WOULD BECOME NECESSARY. EITHER
WAY IT/LL BE HOT AND HUMID ENOUGH WHERE OUTDOOR CAUTION IS
EXTREMELY ADVISED.

A CAP REMAINS IN PLACE AROUND 5-7K FT...THERE IS EVEN LESS
MOISTURE THAN YESTERDAY /WHEN WE ONLY HAD ISOLATED COVERAGE OF
CONVECTION/ AND A LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE LFC AND LCL. THIS LOOKS
TO EASILY PREVENT SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM DEVELOPING TODAY...A RARE
OCCURRENCES THIS TIME OF YEAR.

TONIGHT...A BROAD AND AMPLIFYING TROUGH WILL START TO CARVE OUT
OVER THE EASTERN STATES...CAUSING A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TO MOVE
INTO THE NE STATES. THIS WILL SEND A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
OHIO VALLEY TO THE NEAR THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN LATE. CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AND THAT ALONG WITH A SPARSE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE SUGGESTS THAT WE/LL REMAIN RAINFREE. A BUILD
UP OF DAYTIME HEAT AND THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER NEVER FULLY
DECOUPLING WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM GETTING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID
OR UPPER 70S INLAND AND THE LOWER 80S AT THE COAST. WE/LL BE CLOSE
TO RECORD HIGH MINS WITH READINGS SUCH AS THIS...CHARLESTON
AIRPORT OF 79 SET IN 1981...DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH 83 SET IN
1999 AND THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT WITH 81 SET IN 1878. PLUS THERE IS
THE CHANCE THAT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD BE IN
GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST...ANOTHER REASON FOR IT TO BE A
VERY WARM NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BECOME FURTHER SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH AS AN ANOMALOUSLY DEEP TROUGH
CARVES OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. HEIGHTS WILL STEADILY FALL AS
THE PRIMARY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. THIS
TROUGH WILL DRIVE A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW THROUGH NEW ENGLAND
WITH A STRONG TRAILING COLD FRONT THAT WILL CROSS THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DISTINCT CAP
IN PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING AND MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE DAY DRY. CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED IN
THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT MOVES
THROUGH THE MIDLANDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SPREAD INTO AND
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE EVENING. THE LACK OF
CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE DAY WILL ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF INSOLATION
AND WITH VERY WARM LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES AND COMPRESSIONAL HEATING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A VERY WARM DAY IS EXPECTED. IN FACT...LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE WESTERLY FOR MOST OF THE DAY AND HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO SOAR INTO THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 IN MANY AREAS.
WITH THESE KIND OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID
70S...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND 110 DEGREES FOR A FEW
HOURS. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MENTIONED IN THE HWO.

REGARDING THE SEVERE THREAT...THE TREMENDOUS SURFACE HEATING WILL
RESULT IN SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES IN THE 3000-4000 J/KG RANGE BY
LATE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH IT WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE NEAR
STORM ENVIRONMENT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE DYNAMICS AND
THERMODYNAMICS. THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING WITH IT
30-40 KNOTS OF FLOW AT 500 MB...RESULTING IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES
OF AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW INDICATIONS OF THE
PRESENCE OF AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER WHICH WILL SERVE TO STEEPEN
LAPSE RATES AND PROVIDE ENOUGH MID LEVEL DRY AIR TO PRODUCE DCAPE
VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG. HAIL CAPES ARE ALSO QUITE IMPRESSIVE
AND THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY THERE...AS WELL AS
STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. OVERALL COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
SCATTERED...BUT WHATEVER DOES DEVELOP HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE QUITE
STRONG. GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY AND PRESENCE OF SHEAR...THE
MODE OF CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BE DISCRETE AND SOME COMBINATION OF
MULTICELLS WITH SOME SUPERCELL CHARACTERISTICS. THE TIME PERIOD OF
GREATEST SEVERE THREAT CONTINUES TO BE THE SAME...AS EARLY AS 4-5 PM
CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. ONE POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT
FOR BOTH THE HEAT ADVISORY AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR DEWPOINTS TO MIX OUT MORE THAN ADVERTISED IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THIS WOULD REDUCE HEAT INDICES AND FURTHER REDUCE
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. IT IS SOMETHING WORTH WATCHING WITH SUBSEQUENT
MODEL RUNS. WE CONTINUE TO BE IN THE SPC SLIGHT RISK FOR MONDAY AND
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT HWO MENTION.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A MUCH COOLER PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH
MID WEEK BEHIND THE DEPARTING COLD FRONT. WITH THE ANOMALOUSLY DEEP
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...HEIGHTS WILL
CONTINUE TO FALL AND HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE
UPPER 80S IN MANY AREAS...WHICH WOULD BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.
TUESDAY LOOKS MAINLY DRY BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE
ACTIVITY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE MODELS SHOW MORE CONVECTIVE RESPONSE IN
THE DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE DEEP EASTERN CONUS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT SOME OF THE
MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH STRENGTHENING FURTHER AND DEVELOPING A CLOSED
LOW ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...THE REMNANT COLD
FRONT OFFSHORE MAY ACTUALLY DRIFT BACK WESTWARD AS A COASTAL TROUGH
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. IF THIS WERE TO OCCUR DEEP MOISTURE WOULD
INCREASE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE APPEARS LIKELY BY THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW CLIMO THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND FOG AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...MOST
ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO ENHANCE
SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA
MONDAY EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIE WITHIN A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT
BY JULY STANDARDS...SITUATED BETWEEN THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC
RIDGE TO THE SE AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IN THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SW WINDS AVERAGING A GOOD 12-17 KT...WITH EVEN
SOME HIGHER GUSTS. THIS IN TURN WILL KEEP SEAS UP AT 2-4
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS AND PARTS OF AMZ350.

TONIGHT...THERE IS A FURTHER PACKING OF THE ISOBARS IN RESPONSE TO
THE NORTHERN STATES LOW INTENSIFYING AND A COLD FRONT HEADING
TOWARD THE APPALACHIANS. IN FACT THERE IS AS MUCH AS A 3 MB SPREAD
FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THAT DEVELOPS ACROSS OUR MARINE ZONES. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SW WINDS TO CLIMB EVEN HIGHER...UP TO SOME 16-21 KT.
GUSTS WILL OCCASIONALLY REACH AROUND 25 KT...BUT FOR THE MOMENT
THEIR FREQUENCY AND SPATIAL COVERAGE IS NOT ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY
HOISTING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FLAGS. SEAS WILL CLIMB ANOTHER
FOOT OR SO FROM TODAY...CAPPED AT 4 OR 5 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE...WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
NOT EXPECTED. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
THROUGH THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING HOURS. BEHIND THE FRONT...THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX CONSIDERABLY. WINDS WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS AND
WILL TAKE ON A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM...NO LOWER THAN 75-80
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGH MIN AT KCHS FOR JULY 27TH WHICH IS 79 SET IN 2005.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES...THUS NO NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO
ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 12-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND AROUND 10 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 270514
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE PREVAILING
INLAND. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH AND CROSS THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND BECOME STATIONARY SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY DISSIPATE OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER OFFSHORE...WITH
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A SWATH OF DRY AIR ALOFT SPREADING
OVER THE SOUTHEAST COAST IN ITS WAKE. OTHER THAN SOME THIN HIGH
CLOUDS FROM DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION IN THE OHIO VALLEY...SKIES WILL
BE MAINLY CLEAR. LOWS WILL BE RATHER WARM...NO LOWER THAN 75-80
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...WARMEST ALONG THE COAST. COULD BE CLOSE TO
THE RECORD HIGH MIN AT KCHS FOR JULY 27TH WHICH IS 79 SET IN 2005.
THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FOG IN SOME LOCATIONS...BUT VISIBILITIES
ARE NOT EXPECTED ANY LOWER THAN ABOUT 2 OR 3 MILES...THUS NO NEED
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL START OFF THE WEEK AS THE
AREA REMAINS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INLAND. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A
WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS OFF THE SFC...RESULTING IN A DOWNSLOPING WIND
COMPONENT DURING STRONG SFC HEATING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES
SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 90S...WARMEST INLAND.
THESE TEMPS IN COMBINATION WITH SFC DEWPTS IN THE LOW 70S SUPPORT
HEAT INDEX VALUES BETWEEN 105-108 DEGREES FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE
COAST...WHICH FALLS JUST SHORT OF HEAT ADVISORY CONDITIONS. SHOULD
SFC TEMPS OR DEWPTS INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO...HEAT ADVISORIES COULD
BE NEEDED DURING PEAK HEATING SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. DESPITE
STRONG SFC HEATING DURING THE AFTERNOON...A CAPPING INVERSION WILL
LIMIT OVERALL CONVECTION OVER THE AREA. A DRY FORECAST WILL
THEREFORE REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT TEMPS WILL
REMAIN MILD...IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80 ALONG THE COAST.

MONDAY...HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY WELL AHEAD OF A SFC COLD FRONT POSITIONED TO OUR
NORTH/NORTHWEST. CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
INCREASE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING AS H25 WINDS AND A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND CAUSE IT TO DIG
SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THE DIGGING PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO
FORCE THE SFC COLD FRONT TO THE AREA MONDAY EVENING AND
NIGHT...BRINGING EVEN HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN QUITE UNSTABLE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
ADVANCING FRONT...ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS AS LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -9.0 C AND SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 3000-4000
J/KG. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
MOST FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST NORTH/NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. DESPITE A LATER ARRIVAL...CONDITIONS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN WARM AND MOIST UNTIL COLD FROPA...AND
STRONGER/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE GREATEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL OCCUR AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE
REGION LATE MONDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST
TIMING OF COLD FROPA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE POSSIBLE LATE
MONDAY EVENING UNTIL MIDNIGHT OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
INLAND GEORGIA...WITH A LINGERING RISK OVER COASTAL GEORGIA BEFORE
DAYBREAK TUESDAY. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW/SHEAR PROFILES ALONG WITH THE
MENTIONED PARAMETERS ABOVE SUGGEST PRIMARILY A LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND EVENT. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AS PWATS
APPROACH 2.0 INCHES ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ONCE FROPA
OCCURS...THE OVERALL THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD DIMINISH
QUICKLY. LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST BEHIND
THE FRONT.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE OVER THE AREA BEHIND A
SFC COLD FRONT ADVANCING FURTHER SOUTH OF THE REGION. AS A
RESULT...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON THE
DECLINE THROUGH THE DAY AS COOLER AND DRYER AIR SETTLES OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS SHOULD OCCUR OVER ALL AREAS BY
TUESDAY EVENING. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESSES SUPPORT OVERALL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S...HIGHEST AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PATTERN IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE ANOMALOUSLY
DEEP MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE LOWERING
HEIGHTS AND THICKNESS VALUES WILL RESULT IN A MUCH COOLER PERIOD
WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST WHICH WILL RESULT
IN AN EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION WILL START OFF LOWER WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE SLOWLY
THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST WITH A DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH IN
THE VICINITY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THERE COULD BE A LITTLE GROUND AT THE TERMINALS FROM ABOUT
09-13Z...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF
CONVECTION. WINDS WILL BECOME A LITTLE GUSTY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES HELP TO
ENHANCE SPEEDS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...PRIMARILY VFR. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE MONDAY...WHICH COULD RESULT IN CEILING
AND VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS AS THUNDERSTORMS PASS OVER THE AREA MONDAY
EVENING AND MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE MARINE ZONES WILL BE LOCATED BETWEEN AN INLAND
TROUGH AND THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE TO THE SE. SW WINDS WILL AVERAGE
AROUND 12-18 KT SUSTAINED WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS OVER THE OPEN
ATLANTIC...AND AROUND 10 KT IN CHARLESTON HARBOR. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...EARLY IN THE PERIOD THE SETUP WILL
FEATURE A TIGHTENING SOUTHWEST GRADIENT ACROSS THE WATERS AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL
CROSS THE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT...LIKELY ACCOMPANIED WITH STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. DURING THIS SUNDAY/MONDAY TIME PERIOD...THE GRADIENT
WILL SUPPORT SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT TIMES.
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
PERIODICALLY...ESPECIALLY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT.
THEN FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GRADIENT WILL
SLACKEN AND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME. WINDS
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








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