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000
FXUS62 KCHS 222146
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
546 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK. A
DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY MORE
HIGH PRESSURE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO
THE REGION FROM THE NORTH AROUND THE LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH DEEP DRY AIR SKIES
WILL REMAIN CLEAR AND THE FORECAST IS VERY QUIET THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE CONTINUES TO BE LOW
TEMPERATURES. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ONLY BE ABOUT 2 MB ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROMOTE GOOD RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS AIDED BY A WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE FLOW. EXPECT
LOWER 40S INLAND WITH MID TO UPPER 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE RELAXED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 3 TO 5 FT WAVES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...DPB/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 221857
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
257 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...AS THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS WEDGED BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
MIDWEST...NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE. AS A RESULT...COOL AND
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE
PERIOD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN
THE UPPER 60S WHILE A FEW LOCATIONS HAVE MANAGED TO REACH 70
DEGREES. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB ONLY A FEW MORE
DEGREES...OVERALL CRESTING IN THE LOWER 70S.

THIS EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS...WINDS WILL
DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS
WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES
WILL CREATE CONDITIONS IDEAL FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING...ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S
INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
TO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL MAINTAIN NORTHWEST FLOW AND FAIR WEATHER
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S ON THU. LOWS WILL CONTINUE RUNNING BELOW NORMAL...
FALLING INTO THE MID 40S INLAND AND UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS
PWAT VALUES REMAIN BELOW 0.5 INCHES. UPPER RIDGE WILL FLATTEN ON FRI
AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES OVERHEAD LATE IN THE DAY WITHIN THE CONTINUED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS...NO SENSIBLE WEATHER
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE. FRI WILL FEATURE MORE SEASONABLE HIGH
TEMPS IN THE MID 70S. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACQUIRES A MORE WESTERLY
COMPONENT...HIGHS ON SAT WILL CLIMB INTO THE UPPER 70S. LOWS ON FRI
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER/MID 50S ALONG
THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 300 PM WEDNESDAY...WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE AND A HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO THE AREA...EXPECT
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BECOME MORE RELAXED THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING HOURS...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS TO DECREASE
TO AROUND 10 TO 15 KTS...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE AT
TIMES. AS FOR SEAS...EXPECT 3 TO 5 FT WAVES.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...EXPECT MAINLY 2-3 FT SEAS ON THU WITH
NORTH WINDS 10-15 KT. COULD SEE SOME 3-4 FT SEAS IN THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THU. AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES FRI INTO SAT...
SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 1-2 FT WITH LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY...THEN SHIFT
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA BY MON. NO HEADLINES OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...BJR.ILM
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...BJR.ILM











000
FXUS62 KCHS 221644
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE...AS WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
WEDGED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PERSIST. AS A RESULT...COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ATTM HAVE WARMED UP TO
THE LOWER 60S...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST...THUS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-20 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RFM.CHS
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...DPB/RFM.CHS








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221644
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1244 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST FOR THIS UPDATE...AS WEATHER CONDITIONS REMAIN FAIRLY
QUIET. WITH A COLD FRONT WELL OFFSHORE...THE FORECAST AREA REMAINS
WEDGED BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST AND HIGH
PRESSURE ACROSS THE MIDWEST...ALLOWING FOR NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW TO
PERSIST. AS A RESULT...COOL AND DRY AIR IN PLACE WILL CONTINUE TO
INFILTRATE INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WITH NEARLY CLEAR
SKIES AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...TEMPERATURES ATTM HAVE WARMED UP TO
THE LOWER 60S...WITH SOME AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE MID TO
UPPER 60S. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY CLIMB A FEW MORE DEGREES THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON MAKING HIGHS FOR TODAY IN THE LOWER 70S.

INTO THE EVENING HOURS...WINDS WILL DECREASE TO LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ALONG THE COAST WHILE INLAND AREAS WILL SEE NEARLY CALM WINDS. THIS
COMBINED WITH NEARLY CLEAR SKIES...CONDITIONS WILL BE IDEAL FOR
RADIATIONAL COOLING ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO COOL QUICKLY
OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWER 40S INLAND...WITH MID TO UPPER 40S TO
LOWER 50S AS YOU MOVE TOWARDS THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THE ONLY
ISSUE WILL BE WINDS THROUGH ABOUT SUNSET WITH NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15
KT AND GUSTS AOA 20 KT.  WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO ABOUT 5 KT AFTER
SUNSET.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...
AS OF 1230 PM WEDNESDAY...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE GOING
FORECAST...THUS PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-20 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SGL.ILM
SHORT TERM...RFM.CHS
LONG TERM...RFM.CHS
AVIATION...RN.ILM
MARINE...SGL.ILM...DPB/RFM.CHS








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221315
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
915 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND A
COLD FRONT OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN FAVORS HIGH TEMPS
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. DESPITE A FULL DAY OF SUN...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK IN
THE LOW 70S...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS
EVENING BUT LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE
NIGHT RIGHT ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH
SOME NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN
ON THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE THIS MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED
THROUGH LATE MORNING WITH NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS RANGING BETWEEN
15-20 KTS AND SEAS BETWEEN 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS. THERE IS A CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL 25 KT
WIND GUSTS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS AND OFFSHORE WATERS THROUGH LATE
MORNING...BUT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED. WINDS AND
SEAS WILL STEADILY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT WHILE THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT SLIGHTLY RELAXES OVER THE WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 221132
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
732 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND
THEN DOMINATE INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
A DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY WITH SUNSHINE ON TAP. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N TO NNW WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIR MASS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF AFTERNOON
TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST TODAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH NNW WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE NIGHT RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH SOME
NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES SOUTHWARD
TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE SURFACE...LIGHT
NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA BREEZE RIGHT AT THE
COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND
TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF 20 KT SURGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS FROM 09Z TO 15Z BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO RAISE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AT THIS STAGE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT CAPPED
SEAS BELOW 6 FT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THE SURGE WILL BEGIN TO
EBB AFTER 18Z WITH ENOUGH PRES AND THERMAL GRADIENT TONIGHT TO
SUPPORT A SOLID 15 KT FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 220803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
402 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA TODAY AND THEN
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A DRY COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA WITH
LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED TO DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. SKIES WERE CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION.

IN THE WAKE OF THE OVERNIGHT FRONTAL PASSAGE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND
A DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR MASS WILL ENCOMPASS GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY WITH SUNSHINE ON TAP. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE N TO NNW WILL USHER
IN A COOLER AIR MASS...LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF
AFTERNOON TEMPS NEARLY 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN ON TUE. NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S WITH NNW WINDS
10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH AT TIMES THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON.

INLAND AREAS SHOULD DECOUPLE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING BUT
LIGHT NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS COULD KEEP GOING INTO THE NIGHT RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST...INCLUDING BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WEST OF U.S. 17 WITH SOME
NORMALLY COLDER RURAL/INLAND AREAS NEARING 40 DEGREES BY DAWN ON
THURSDAY. LOW MOST AREAS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AWAY FROM THE
OCEAN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE...CENTERED FROM THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTHWARD TO THE GULF COAST...WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE. AT THE
SURFACE...LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS.THERE COULD BE A WEAK SEA
BREEZE RIGHT AT THE COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES OF THIS PERIOD WITH HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER 50S AT THE COAST.

FRIDAY...GLOBAL MODELS ALREADY HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES WITH THE
EVOLUTION OF THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES DOWN IN THE UPPER
LEVEL NORTHWEST FLOW. THE ECMWF SEEMS TO BE THE OUTLIER WITH
PRODUCING A MUCH STRONGER SHORT WAVE THAT APPROACHES THE REGION BY
LATE DAY...WITH THE NAM AND THE GFS MUCH WEAKER/BROAD AND FURTHER NORTH.
HAVE GONE WITH THE WEAKER SOLUTIONS AND KEPT OUT ANY MENTION OF
PRECIP. AGAIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE LIGHT NORTHWEST...WITH A LATE
DAY SEA BREEZE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST. NOTE: SEA BREEZES ARE
GETTING MORE DIFFICULT GIVEN TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE
LAND AND WATER ARE BECOMING LESS...EVEN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
FRIDAY NIGHT...LIGHT NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE RIDGE
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA OVER THE TN RIVER VALLEY. EXPECT TEMPS TO
RADIATE DOWN TO THE MID 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S COAST.

SATURDAY...CONTINUED BROAD NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW WITH A SURFACE
RIDGE CENTERED WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE AREA. UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS/TEMPS
MODERATE SOME. THUS...EXPECT SLIGHTLY WARMER MAX TEMPS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY THEN START TO
DIVERGE. A SPRAWLING DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY
AND THEN MOVES JUST OFF SHORE BY LATER MONDAY AS AN ANOTHER UPPER
TROUGH TAKES SHAPE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS NEXT TROUGH IS WHERE
THE MODELS DIVERGE. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER AND MORE FULL LATITUDE IN
ITS EXTENT BY TUESDAY...WHILE THE GFS IS WEAKER AND FASTER...HOLDING
THE BULK OF THE ENERGY WELL NORTH OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ODDLY...
MODELS COME BACK TO CLOSER AGREEMENT BY WEDNESDAY AS BOTH SHOW A
BROAD TROUGH/NEARLY ZONAL FLOW OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S. AND A
DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEPARTING OVER THE ATLANTIC. THROUGH THIS
PERIOD...GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE MAIN TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH TD9...CURRENTLY OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WELL SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE LARGELY DOMINATES. MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...LOW LEVEL FLOW
VEERS TO SOUTHEAST...WHICH WILL HELP TO ADVECT BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. THUS...HAVE CONTINUED TREND OF SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS OVER MAINLY THE COASTAL AND ATLANTIC WATERS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE
DIMINISHING AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND FOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV.

&&

.MARINE...
COLDER LOW LEVEL AIR WILL ADVECT OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WITH
SURFACE WINDS VEERING NORTHERLY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT
OVERNIGHT. A BRIEF 20 KT SURGE IS ANTICIPATED THIS MORNING WITH
OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS FROM 09Z TO 15Z BUT THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
EVIDENCE IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS TO RAISE ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
AT THIS STAGE. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 3 TO 4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE GEORGIA COAST LATER THIS MORNING BUT CAPPED
SEAS BELOW 6 FT OUT NEAR THE GULF STREAM. THE SURGE WILL BEGIN TO
EBB AFTER 18Z WITH ENOUGH PRES AND THERMAL GRADIENT TONIGHT TO
SUPPORT A SOLID 15 KT FOR TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NORTHWEST OF
THE REGION THROUGH SUNDAY THEN SHIFT TO NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
BY LATER MONDAY. NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITH WINDS 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 4 FT OR LESS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...RFM








000
FXUS62 KCHS 220529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50
ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17
CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCOMING NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BEING RIGHT ON
THE CUSP OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE 15-20 KT...THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE 06-08Z WINDOW AND WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH AROUND 12Z. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3-5 FT LATE
TONIGHT...GREATEST ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KT
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 220529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING. A COLD FRONT WAS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION WITH
SURFACE WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH. COOLER AIR WILL INFILTRATE THE
FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50
ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17
CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY FROM MID MORNING TO EARLY
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER MID AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
INCOMING NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW WINDS BEING RIGHT ON
THE CUSP OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NO ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE 15-20 KT...THOUGH A FEW
GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
THE 06-08Z WINDOW AND WILL BE STRONGEST THROUGH AROUND 12Z. SEAS
WILL BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3-5 FT LATE
TONIGHT...GREATEST ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KT
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 220306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1106 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...NO CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE GOING FORECAST.
THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO APPROACH AND WILL BEGIN TO INFILTRATE
THE FORECAST AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
CONTINUES BELOW.

TONIGHT...AS A ROBUST AND DEEP-LAYERED GYRE NEAR KPIT THIS EVENING
WILL DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA LATE AND SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WITH AT MOST A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN SC.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH THE VERTICAL VOID OF ANY
MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z WITHIN
A DEEP NW AND NORTH FLOW...AND WE LOOK FOR A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50 ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
LATE THIS EVENING...INCOMING NEW MODEL DATA CONTINUES TO SHOW
WINDS BEING RIGHT ON THE CUSP OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY. NO
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED AND THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO FEATURE
15-20 KT...THOUGH A FEW GUSTS APPROACHING 25 KT CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. WINDS WILL PICK UP IN THE 06-08Z WINDOW AND WILL BE STRONGEST
THROUGH AROUND 12Z. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING
TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 212349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...AS A ROBUST AND DEEP-LAYERED GYRE NEAR KPIT THIS EVENING
WILL DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA LATE AND SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WITH AT MOST A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN SC.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH THE VERTICAL VOID OF ANY
MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z WITHIN
A DEEP NW AND NORTH FLOW...AND WE LOOK FOR A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50 ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS MAY BE A BIT GUSTY WEDNESDAY
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING...PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A DECENT NW
TO NORTH POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR AS COLD ADVECTION MIXES A
GOOD PART OF THE 25 GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS. WE DELIBERATED LONG AND
HARD ON WHETHER OR NOT TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS...BUT PRESSURE RISES
OF 1-2 MB FROM ABOUT 09-12Z AND ONLY AROUND AN 8-10 DEGREE SPREAD OF
THE COOLER AIR ATOP THE WARMER WATERS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW THE REQUIRED SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...RFM
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...33/DPB






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...AS A ROBUST AND DEEP-LAYERED GYRE NEAR KPIT THIS EVENING
WILL DROP TOWARD THE DELMARVA LATE AND SEND A MODEST COLD FRONT INTO
THE AREA THIS EVENING...BEFORE IT SLIDES INTO THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT WILL COME THROUGH DRY...WITH AT MOST A FEW
ALTOCUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY IN SC.
OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CRYSTAL CLEAR WITH THE VERTICAL VOID OF ANY
MOISTURE. COLD ADVECTION STARTS IN EARNEST AFTER ABOUT 03-05Z WITHIN
A DEEP NW AND NORTH FLOW...AND WE LOOK FOR A GOOD DROP IN TEMPS
OVERNIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM 47-50 ALONG THE NW TIER...TO THE
LOWER OR MIDDLE 50S NEAR THE US-17 CORRIDOR...TO THE UPPER 50S ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...MUCH COOLER AND DRYER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION
BEHIND A COLD FRONT WELL OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE
SOME 8-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A
BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW 70S...COOLEST
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE
THE COOLEST OF THE WEEK...WITH PERHAPS SOME CONTRIBUTION FROM
RADIATIONAL COOLING INLAND. IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE
LOW/MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS
TO THE DRY WEATHER PATTERN...BUT WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BACK TO
NORTHWEST LATE WEEK. A FULL SUN ALONG WITH A MORE FAVORABLE
DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT EACH DAY SUPPORTS GRADUALLY WARMING
TEMPS...WITH LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUGGESTING OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 70S ON THURSDAY...THEN MID/UPPER 70S ON
FRIDAY. THURSDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL ALSO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE MID/UPPER 40S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY NORTH/NW WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS WITH VFR WEATHER TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING...PASSING THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT. A DECENT NW
TO NORTH POST-FRONTAL SURGE WILL OCCUR AS COLD ADVECTION MIXES A
GOOD PART OF THE 25 GEOSTROPHIC WIND FIELDS. WE DELIBERATED LONG AND
HARD ON WHETHER OR NOT TO HOIST THE SCA FLAGS...BUT PRESSURE RISES
OF 1-2 MB FROM ABOUT 09-12Z AND ONLY AROUND AN 8-10 DEGREE SPREAD OF
THE COOLER AIR ATOP THE WARMER WATERS SUGGEST THAT CONDITIONS WILL
STAY JUST BELOW THE REQUIRED SCA CRITERIA LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
BUILD FROM NEAR 2 FT THIS EVENING TO 3-5 FT LATE TONIGHT...GREATEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EAST OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURRING
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST.
AS A RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
IN GENERAL...NORTH/NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD RANGE BETWEEN 15-20 KTS
WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.
THERE IS A LOW CHANCE WE COULD SEE A PERIOD OF MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS OVER NORTHERN SC WATERS WHEN COLD AIR ADVECTION
IS STRONGEST WEDNESDAY MORNING.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
NORTHWEST OF THE REGION THROUGH LATE WEEK AND IS THEN REINFORCED
SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 211721
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND SHIFTS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY NORTH/NW WINDS WEDNESDAY MORNING AT KSAV AND KCHS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW
BREEZES TO BECOME MORE SW BY LATE AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 211702
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND SHIFTS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW
BREEZES TO BECOME MORE SW BY LATE AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 211407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND BACKS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW BREEZES
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 211407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF A CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AROUND A PROMINENT
CUT OFF AND DEEP LAYERED LOW OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES...WE/RE
ALSO IN A REGION OF NVA BEHIND THE SHORT WAVE OF LATE LAST NIGHT.
GIVEN THIS SCENARIO AND DRY AIR MASS WE/RE IN STORE FOR A GORGEOUS
AUTUMN DAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH
DURING TONIGHT. COMPRESSIONAL HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...DOWNSLOPE WEST/NW TRAJECTORIES DOWN THE APPALACHIANS AND
BRILLIANT SUNSHINE WILL BOOST TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH FAIRLY UNIFORM 850 MB TEMPS OF 12-13C OUR TEMPS
WILL PEAK IN THE LOWER 80S. EVEN THE BEACHES WILL BE CLOSE TO 80
BEFORE A WEAK RESULTANT SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS LATE AND BACKS WINDS
ON THE IMMEDIATE SHORELINE TO SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...AWESOME BOATING CONDITIONS...WITH GENTLE WEST/NW BREEZES
TO BACK A LITTLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A RESULTANT SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION ATTEMPTS TO BUCKLE THE DOMINANT OFFSHORE SYNOPTIC
FLOW. EVEN SO WINDS WILL REACH NO MORE THAN AROUND 10 KT...AND
SEAS OF 1 OR 2 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 211044
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
644 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ADDED A MENTION OF PATCHY DENSE FOG AND ISSUED A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR AREAS THAT SAW RAIN OVERNIGHT. DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WITH SUNRISE APPROACHING...BUT
TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY AND PUSH
OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING AHEAD OF A
PRONOUNCED SURFACE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH
CAROLINA... SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA WILL BE WELL OFFSHORE BY
SUNRISE AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS OFF THE COAST. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
RAPIDLY DRY OUT IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH AS THE TAIL END OF ITS
SUPPORTING SHORT WAVE PIVOTS OFF TO THE NORTH. DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY UNDER MAINLY SUNNY SKIES.
SOLID WESTERLY FLOW NECESSITATES GOING SLIGHTLY ABOVE GUIDANCE TO
FOR HIGHS TODAY GIVEN GUIDANCE TENDS TO RUN A BIT TOO COOL IN
WESTERLY FLOW REGIMES. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY TOP OUT IN THE LOWER
80S...EVEN ALL THE WAY TO THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE
PINNED NEAR OR JUST OFFSHORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL RAPIDLY APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS
EVENING AS A FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PUSHES OFFSHORE.
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO CLEAR THE COAST BY LATE EVENING WITH
MODEST POST-FRONTAL COLD AIR ADVECTION SETTING IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
ALTHOUGH SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDINESS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...
EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE FOR MUCH
OF THE NIGHT WITH LOWS BOTTOMING OUT IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL BE QUITE AMPLIFIED WITH A DEEP
CLOSED UPPER LOW OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND A NARROW DEEP LAYER RIDGE
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE SOUTHERN MS RIVER VALLEY. OUR REGION
WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW WITH UPPER LEVEL
NORTHWEST FLOW. AT THE SURFACE...A POLAR RIDGE WILL BUILD FROM THE
NORTHWEST BEHIND A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA BY
AFTERNOON. STILL EXPECT THIS FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH DRY DUE TO
LIMITED DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...MAX TEMPS
ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST...BUT THE CENTER WILL STILL
BE WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION OVER THE OH RIVER VALLEY. THUS...NOT
PERFECT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...BUT GUIDANCE STILL SHOWING
THIS PERIOD TO BE THE COOLEST FOR THE WEEK...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER
40S INLAND TO MID 40S TO AROUND 50 COAST.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP UPPER LOW MOVES ONLY SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST TO JUST
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND BY LATE DAY. THE UPSTREAM RIDGE STARTS TO
FLATTEN/WEAKEN WITH A PRETTY WEAK LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
THE REGION. TEMPS WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY INTO THE MID 70S MOST AREAS
/NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL/. GIVEN THE LIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT...MAY SEE A LATE DAY SEA BREEZE NEAR THE COAST. THURSDAY
NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...REPLACING THE WEAK RIDGE. THIS WILL VEER LOW LEVEL WINDS
TO WESTERLY...AND ALONG WITH SOME MIXING DUE TO THE SHORT
WAVE...EXPECT LOWS TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S COAST.

FRIDAY..THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S...BUT WITH RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS...NO PRECIP EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WESTERLY
WITH AN AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL HELP MODERATE
MAX TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S...NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODELS HAVE COME INTO FAIR AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...BUT
THEN START TO DIVERGE BY TUESDAY. FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A WEAK
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OFFSHORE BUT IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED
BY A SHARPER SHORT WAVE MOVING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW.
THIS SHORT WAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST NEAR THE REGION SATURDAY...BUT
MODELS DIFFER SLIGHTLY ON ITS TRACK. IF THIS FEATURE REMAINS AS
SHARP AS MODELS CURRENTLY SHOW...AND MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA..WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED IF LATER FORECASTS NEED TO ADD AT LEAST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR FIRST PART OF SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A
BROAD/DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS UPPER RIDGE IS SLOWER TO MOVE EAST IN THE ECMWF THAN GFS ON
TUESDAY.

GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH NO POPS MENTIONED THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME
MARGINAL DEEP LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS TO RETURN LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH LOW LEVEL EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW. THIS HAS PROMPTED
MENTION OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL /ESPECIALLY MAX TEMPS/ THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...NO CONCERNS.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY AS A SURFACE TROUGH PUSHES
OFFSHORE AROUND SUNRISE AND REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE 10 KT OR LESS WITHS SEAS 1-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WESTERLY WINDS WILL TURN NORTH LATE AS A COLD FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH THE LOCAL MARINE AREA. A POST FRONTAL SURGE LOOKS
DECENT WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT BY SUNRISE THURSDAY. SEAS
WILL BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 2-4 FT...BUT WILL BE MITIGATED SOMEWHAT BY
THE STRONG OFFSHORE FETCH.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ANOTHER POLAR COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KT JUST
BEHIND THE FRONT. CONDITIONS STILL TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING. IF WINDS DO REACH SCA
LEVELS...LOOKS LIKE IT WOULD BE FOR A SHORT DURATION...MOST LIKELY
ENDING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED
LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SATURDAY...WHICH BECOMES REINFORCED SATURDAY AFTERNOON
BEHIND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210424
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE PER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. 20/30 POPS IN THIS AREA LOOK ON TRACK WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM
WEST-EAST LATE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SWINGS THROUGH. LOWS
FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S COAST LOOK
FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 210424
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1224 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE PER CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND
MESOSCALE GUIDANCE. BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE IN THE
REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT CORRIDOR...GRADUALLY SHIFTING TO THE COAST
THROUGH SUNRISE. 20/30 POPS IN THIS AREA LOOK ON TRACK WITH NON-
MENTIONABLE POPS ELSEWHERE. THE RISK FOR SHOWERS WILL END FROM
WEST-EAST LATE AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY MOVING
THROUGH THE UPSTATE AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA SWINGS THROUGH. LOWS
FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S COAST LOOK
FINE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS...MAINLY AT KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210230
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE FOR ANY INLAND PRECIP
BY LATER TONIGHT.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE N/E IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING/ AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS
ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...BUT POPS DROP OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO
INLAND AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATER TONIGHT.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 210230
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE FOR ANY INLAND PRECIP
BY LATER TONIGHT.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE N/E IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING/ AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF
AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS
ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL
COASTAL LOCATIONS AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
ELSEWHERE. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST...BUT POPS DROP OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO
INLAND AFTER THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATER TONIGHT.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210226
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PER ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING ACROSS INLAND COUNTIES...EXPANDED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THESE AREAS FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT.
ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR WILL END THE CHANCE FOR ANY INLAND PRECIP
BY LATER TONIGHT.

LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 210201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 210201
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1001 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
LATE MONDAY EVENING...ISOLATED SHOWERS HAD DEVELOPED SOUTH OF I-16
AND WEST OF I-95...NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE COINCIDED WITH A PLUME OF ELEVATED SURFACE-850 MB
THETA-E/SURFACE LIFTED INDICES AROUND ZERO. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION
GUIDANCE HAS CONVERGED ON A SOLUTION SUGGESTING THAT THESE SHOWERS
WILL EXPAND IN COVERAGE TOWARD THE E/NE IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING/
AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALOFT AND THE PASSAGE OF AN ASSOCIATED
SURFACE TROUGH OVERNIGHT. FINE-TUNED POPS ACCORDINGLY...TAPERED
FROM CHANCE FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL LOCATIONS AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST...WITH POPS DROPPING OFF TO VIRTUALLY ZERO INLAND.

THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION BASED AROUND 800 MB AS DEPICTED BY
THE 00Z KCHS AND KJAX SOUNDINGS WILL WEAKEN AS THE UPPER SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES...BUT THIS FEATURE WILL PERSIST SUFFICIENTLY TO
LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF MOIST UPDRAFTS. THUS...A MENTION OF
THUNDER IS NOT JUSTIFIED OVER LAND.

MEANWHILE...PRECIPITATION WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE LATE
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAK
SURFACE WAVE COULD DEVELOP OVER THE GULF STREAM LATE TONIGHT. THIS
FEATURE COULD PROLONG SHOWERS OVER COASTAL WATERS AND PERHAPS EVEN
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S MOST AREAS
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS W/NW WINDS PUSH DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION IN
THE WAKE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE. ON THE BEACHES...
TEMPERATURES COULD HOLD IN THE 60S MOST OF THE NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 03Z-06Z UNTIL 09-12Z...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT LIMITED
MENTION TO VCSH WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...SE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS AND S/SW WINDS OVER SC WATERS...MAINLY LESS
THAT 15 KT....WILL VEER WITH TIME AND WILL EVENTUALLY TURN TOWARD
THE W/NW AS THE SURFACE TROUGH PASSES LATE TONIGHT. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND
2-3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED...WITH GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF AMZ350...AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT LATE ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 202257
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA AND WILL MOVE OFF THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A TRANQUIL EVENING...AN AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH WILL PUSH A
A SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED FORCING
FOR ASCENT WAS ALREADY PRODUCING SHOWERS UPSTREAM OVER THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...AND THIS REGIME WILL SHIFT TOWARD THE
COAST OVERNIGHT. TO VARYING DEGREES...LATEST GUIDANCE DEPICTS
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ESPECIALLY OVER COASTAL COUNTIES AND ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS AS FORCING FOR ASCENT INTERACTS WITH AN AIRMASS
FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S/60S. MAINTAINED ONGOING SLIGHT
CHANCE/CHANCE POPS FROM LATE EVENING/AROUND MIDNIGHT THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING MAINLY EAST OF I-95...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW
SHOWERS FARTHER INLAND. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO ASSESS THE
POTENTIAL FOR GREATER COVERAGE AND EVEN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT AS DEPICTED BY THE MORE AGGRESSIVE/MORE UNSTABLE 18Z NAM.

MEANWHILE...CLOUDS...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED DEWPOINTS WILL
LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES UP UNTIL LATE TONIGHT WHEN OFFSHORE WINDS
WILL USHER DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION AND WILL PUSH COOLER TEMPS IN
THE 50S INTO THE REGION AND TOWARD THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TUESDAY. LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHOWERS/BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS 04Z-06Z UNTIL 10-12Z...BUT LIMITED MENTION TO VCSH
WITHIN 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SURFACE TROUGH/ON THE PERIPHERY
OF HIGH PRESSURE RETREATING OFFSHORE/AWAY FROM THE COAST...THE
REMNANT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SW WINDS AS HIGH
AS 15 KT. THEN...WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE W/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS
AS THE TROUGH PASSES LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2-3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CANNOT BE
RULED OUT ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201943
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
343 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PULL EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC TONIGHT AS A WEAK
TROUGH MOVES OFF THE COAST OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE
THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WARM CONDITIONS WITH AN EXTENSIVE BUT MOSTLY
FLAT CUMULUS FIELD...AS THE SEA BREEZE CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK
INLAND AND REACHES NEAR OR WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR BY SUNSET.

TONIGHT...MUCH OF THE DAYTIME CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL FADE WITH SUNSET.
FOR AWHILE WE SHOULD TRANSITION BACK TO PARTLY CLOUDY...BEFORE THE
ARRIVAL OF THE TAIL END OF A LOW TO MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE DURING THE
LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. THIS FEATURE IS UPSTREAM ACROSS
THE OHIO VALLEY TO THE MID MS VALLEY AS OF LATE AFTERNOON AND WILL
TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC WATERS AFTER MIDNIGHT. IN RESPONSE FROM ABOUT 10 PM
TO 3 AM THE FLOW IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER BACKS A LITTLE SOUTH/SW AND
PULLS UP SOME MOISTURE FROM THE ATLANTIC AND OUT OF THE GULF. THIS
ALONG WITH INCREASING ALBEIT WEAK ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ATOP THE
SURFACE TROUGH...A 80-90 KT UPPER JET MAX AND PVA IN RESPONSE TO THE
SHORT WAVE MAY SPUR A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES. THE
BULK OF THE SHOWERS THOUGH WILL STAY OFFSHORE AND THERE WILL BE FINE
LINE BETWEEN WHERE IT DOES RAIN AND WHERE IT DOESN/T...AND LITTLE
QPF IS ANTICIPATED. AS THE PERTURBATION ALOFT AND SURFACE TROUGH
PULL FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC LATE TONIGHT ANY SHOWERS WILL
END...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR FROM WEST/SW TO EAST/NE.

WITH SUBTLE WARM TO NEUTRAL ADVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WE
DON/T FORESEE TEMPS GETTING ANYWHERE NEAR AS LOW AS THEY WERE THIS
MORNING. BUT ONCE CLOUDS MOVE OUT LATE AND THE SYNOPTIC FLOW BECOMES
NW WE LOOK FOR LOWS TO RANGE FROM AROUND 50 IN ALLENDALE TO PARTS OF
SCREVEN AND JENKINS...LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S MOST ELSEWHERE
INLAND...WITH UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST AND
FURTHER OFFSHORE FROM THE AREA EARLY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A
PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SLOWLY SHIFTS OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST.
WEST/NORTHWEST FLOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL
HELP PRODUCE FAIRLY WARM TEMPS AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHING
THE AREA LATE. LATEST 1000-850MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS NEAR 80S DEGREES AND GIVEN A DOWNSLOPING WIND COMPONENT
ALONG WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES...HAVE MAINTAINED HIGH TEMPS IN THE
LOWER 80S FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...A DRY COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LITTLE TO NO
IMPACT OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN REGARDS TO PRECIP. HOWEVER...COOLER
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONT AS A NORTH/NORTHWEST
FLOW DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SIDE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MIDWEST. TUESDAY NIGHT TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOW/MID
50S FOR MOST AREAS...BUT TEMPS COULD DIP INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND
WHERE FROPA OCCURS EARLIEST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE SOME 5-10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW
PERSISTS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MIDWEST AND A BROAD
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN GENERAL...HIGH
TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW/MID 70S...COOLEST OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. WEDNESDAY NIGHT LOWS SHOULD ALSO BE THE COOLEST OF THE
WEEK...WITH PERHAPS A SMALL CONTRIBUTION FROM RADIATIONAL COOLING.
IN GENERAL...LOWS SHOULD DIP INTO THE MID 40S INLAND TO LOW 50S NEAR
THE COAST.

THURSDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IS ANTICIPATED IN REGARDS TO THE DRY
WEATHER PATTERN...BUT SFC WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY BACK TO NORTHWEST
OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THIS SUPPORTS A GRADUAL MODIFICATION OF
TEMPS...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS 1-2 DEGREES WARMER THAN WEDNESDAY...BUT
STILL IN THE LOW/MID 70S OVER MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY
AND MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND MID LEVEL
IMPULSE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AS THE BULK OF
ANY RAIN AND SUB-VFR WEATHER STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF BOTH
TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH CHS
AND SAV TERMINALS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING...LIGHT SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND CLOCKWISE
FLOW AROUND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE THE WATERS WITH SE
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS AND SEAS OF 3 FT OR LOWER.

TONIGHT...A WEAK TROUGH WILL FORM OVER OR NEAR THE MARINE AREA AS A
1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CORE NEAR 38N AND 88W PULLS FURTHER AWAY TO
THE EAST AND NE. THE TROUGH WILL ALSO FOLLOW BEHIND THE RIDGE AND BY
LATE THERE REMAINS LITTLE IF ANY EVIDENCE OF THE TROUGH AS LAND
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS DEVELOP. THE RESULT WILL BE FOR SE AND SOUTH
WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS EARLY ON...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW
OF 15 KT OR LESS LATE. SEAS WILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT...GREATEST
ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORECAST AFTER 9 OR 10 PM.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TUESDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO SLOWLY SHIFT OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. IN
GENERAL...WESTERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO
HIGHER THAN 3 FT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH THE AREA AND
SHIFT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TUESDAY
NIGHT...RESULTING IN A FAIR AMOUNT OF COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER THE
WATERS WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. AS A
RESULT...WINDS/SEAS WILL BE ENHANCED POST FROPA LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS. IN GENERAL...WEST WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH BETWEEN
15-20 KTS BEHIND THE FRONT WHILE SEAS BUILD TO 3-4 FT...HIGHEST IN
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS FEATURE
WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL NOT EXPECTING
WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 201728
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AS THE
BULK OF ANY RAIN AND SUB-VFR WEATHER STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201728
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
128 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CEILINGS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY SHOWER
ACTIVITY AND MVFR CEILINGS ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AND
MID LEVEL IMPULSE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AS THE
BULK OF ANY RAIN AND SUB-VFR WEATHER STAYS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST
OF BOTH TERMINALS. CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR WILL RETURN TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 201654
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...









000
FXUS62 KCHS 201654
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1254 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS TO THE TEMP
CURVE WE HAVE BUMPED MAX TEMPS UP A DEGREE OR TWO MOST PLACES.
THUS UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80 WILL BE FAIRLY UNIFORM...HIGHEST NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. SHORELINE COMMUNITIES WILL BE HELD IN CHECK BY
THE SEA BREEZE...BUT STILL IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S. THIS WILL
BE TEMP SWING OF AT LEAST 25-30 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

CUMULUS AND STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE SEA BREEZE AND ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTH...CREATING PARTLY
SUNNY CONDITIONS SOUTH AND SE...BUT MOSTLY SUNNY FOR MUCH OF THE
AFTERNOON TO THE NORTH AND NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC OFF THE OUTER BANKS OF NC...WHILE THE SW PORTION OF THE
RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. A LAX PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION TO VEER
WINDS AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE AT SPEEDS NO MORE THAN 10 OR 12 KT
ON AVERAGE. SEAS WILL OBTAIN NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...HIGHEST
ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 201428
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND
ALTHOUGH THE SURGING TREND WILL SLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PLUS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALL SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHORELINE.

WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ACTUALLY LOWERED
PERCENT SKY COVER INLAND. ON AVERAGE WE/LL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES..ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE SW PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 201428
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH DIGGING THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT LAKES...OHIO VALLEY AND THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY WILL
FORCE HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE OUTER BANKS OF NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.
THE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THIS SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN LOCALLY
THROUGH THE DAY AS A VERY WEAK COASTAL TROUGH TRIES TO FORM ACROSS
THE NEARBY WATERS BY LATE DAY. A SMALL AMOUNT OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR AN INCREASE IN CUMULUS
AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD COVER TO DEVELOP AND/OR ADVECT
ONSHORE...BUT A PROMINENT SUBSIDENCE CAP AROUND 850 MB AND THE
OVERALL LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY MARINE BASED SHOWERS
FROM REACHING THE LAND ZONES. TEMPS ARE RAPIDLY RISING AND
ALTHOUGH THE SURGING TREND WILL SLOW BY EARLY AFTERNOON...A DECENT
AMOUNT OF INSOLATION PLUS WARM ADVECTION WILL ALLOW FOR MAX TEMPS
TO PEAK IN THE MID AND UPPER 70S ALL SECTIONS AWAY FROM THE
SLIGHTLY COOLER SHORELINE.

WE HAVE DELAYED THE INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...AND ACTUALLY LOWERED
PERCENT SKY COVER INLAND. ON AVERAGE WE/LL START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY...WITH SKIES TRENDING TO PARTLY SUNNY AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES..ESPECIALLY SOUTH AND SE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A 1021 MB HIGH WILL SLIDE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AS
THE SW PORTION OF THE RIDGE EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A LAX PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALLOW FOR A GENTLE SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION TO DEVELOP AS WINDS VEER AROUND TO THE EAST AND SE
THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHEST WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS MORNING WILL
DROP TO 10 KT OR LESS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CLOCK AROUND TO AN OFFSHORE FLOW AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 201034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER TRENDS.

WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
634 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE...MAINLY
TO ACCOUNT FOR SKY COVER TRENDS.

WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT CONFIDENCE LEVEL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST TODAY AND
TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WORKING OFF LIMITED MODEL DATA THIS MORNING DUE TO A COMMUNICATIONS
OUTAGE AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TELECOMMUNICATIONS GATEWAY.
THANKFULLY...THE WEATHER IS POISED TO REMAIN QUIET AND VERY FALL-
LIKE ACROSS THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE AS CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD.

THE CENTER OF THE ANTICYCLONE WILL EVENTUALLY SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH
WINDS TURNING MORE ONSHORE AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME FROM SUNDAY/S
READINGS...BUT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE 70S TODAY...
RANGING FROM MID 70S NORTH TO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE DEGREE OF CLOUD COVER
IS A BIT UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE LACK OF MODEL DATA THIS MORNING. THE
NAM SEEMS A BIT BULLISH ON THE VARIOUS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING
SKIES BECOMING CLOUDY LATER THIS MORNING...BUT GIVEN EARLY MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY DOES SHOW EXTENSIVE STRATOCUMULUS POISED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AS AN AREA OF WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT PUSHES INLAND...
EXPECT AT LEAST MOSTLY TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TO OCCUR. THE
PROSPECT FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS LOW GIVEN THE MEAGER MEAN RH
VALUES IN PLACE...BUT A LIGHT/BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO MOVING
ONSHORE CAN NOT COMPLETELY RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON. POPS AT THE
COAST WILL GENERALLY BE CONFINED TO 5 PERCENT OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...A DIFFUSE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS PROGGED TO PUSH OFF THE
COAST EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. ANY MARINE BASED SHOWER ACTIVITY
THAT CAN DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WILL LIKELY REMAIN
OFFSHORE GIVEN THIS FLOW REGIME AND ANTICIPATE RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS TO DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN OVER LAND AREAS. VARYING DEGREES
OF CLOUD COVER WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING...WITH A CLEARING LINE
PROGGED TO SLOWLY WORK ITS WAY FROM WEST-EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 50S INLAND TO THE UPPER 50S/LOWER
60S AT THE COAST.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL
BE A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW THAT WILL MOVE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES STATES TUESDAY EASTWARD TO JUST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST BY
THURSDAY. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL
TUESDAY...FALLING TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND THE NEXT POLAR COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...A FULL LATITUDE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE FROM ALOFT TO
THE SURFACE WILL DOMINATE THE ENTIRE U.S. EAST COAST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL HAVE A DOWNSLOPE
COMPONENT THAT WILL HELP WARM TEMPS TO ABOUND 80 TO LOWER 80S
UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. BY TUESDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER POLAR COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AGAIN...DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE IS LACKING. THUS...THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO COME
THROUGH DRY. LOWS BY MORNING IN THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO THE LOWER
50S ELSE WHERE.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
STATES WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SOUTHEAST INTO OUR REGION...WHILE
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL MOVE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW AND WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION
ALL DAY. EXPECT HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S UNDER FULL SUN...WHICH
IS A FEW DEGS BELOW NORMAL. THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL
REMAIN WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHICH WILL
KEEP ENOUGH PRESSURE GRADIENT TO MAINTAIN LIGHT NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...WHICH MAY BE ENOUGH TO HOLD RADIATIONAL
CONDITIONS TO LESS THAN PERFECT. STILL COOL HOWEVER...WITH LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 40S...EXCEPT LOWER 50S AT THE COAST UNDER
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

THURSDAY...THE DEEP LAYER LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL BE JUST OFF THE
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST WHILE A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE OH RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST STATES.
THIS WILL RESULT IN RELATIVELY LIGHT AFTERNOON LOW LEVEL NORTHWEST
FLOW WITH HIGHS AGAIN COOL IN THE LOWER 70S WITH SUNNY SKIES.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GLOBAL MODEL SOLUTIONS NOW VERY DIFFERENT FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATER
PART OF THE PERIOD. THE LATEST SOLUTIONS NOW SHOW THE DEEP/CLOSED
UPPER LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TO CONTINUE SLOWLY MOVING
EASTWARD FRIDAY AS A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. STATES BY FRIDAY. BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...A SHORT WAVE UPPER
TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...TO OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST BY SATURDAY. THEN A DEEP LAYER RIDGE BUILDS EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST STATES SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THIS IS
DRASTICALLY DIFFERENT FROM SOLUTIONS 24 HOURS AGO...WHICH
FEATURED AN UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF STATES AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW MOVING UP FROM THE GULF ACROSS FL THEN INTO THE SOUTHWEST
ATLANTIC. THIS NEWER SOLUTION IS MUCH DRIER AND WARMER THAN
PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. GIVEN THE EXTREME UNCERTAINTY...MADE ONLY MINOR
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...GENERALLY HOLDING THEM
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. DID INTRODUCE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR
MONDAY WITH SOME MOISTURE RETURN ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE RIDGE...BUT
CONFIDENCE QUITE LOW FOR POPS GIVEN ABOVE DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
SPEEDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW 10 KT WITH SEAS 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SHIFT OFFSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A
PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH PUSHES OFF THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT...GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 1-3 FT.

TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH AND WEST OF THE WATERS WITH PREVAILING
WESTERLY FLOW OF 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 3 FT OR LESS. TUESDAY
NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. COLD ADVECTION
AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE WINDS TO
15 TO 20 KT WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS AND SEAS 3 TO 5 FEET. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS SEEM TOO MARGINAL TO GO WITH A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY. BY LATER WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ANY HIGHLIGHTS AS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. BY SATURDAY...AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.
THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE THE NORTHWEST WINDS...BUT STILL
NOT EXPECTING WINDS/SEAS TO REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
STRATOCUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASSENT IS BEGINNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE...LIKELY SPREADING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...BUT ITS FORMATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY TO INCLUDE MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL SEND A
POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENN VALLEYS AT NIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN NC AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AN ILL-DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS...BUT STAYS OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE AN NOTED INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDINESS. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ADVECTING ASHORE...PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT HOLDS IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND AFTER A
COOL/CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIGHT EVEN HIT 80 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IF
INSOLATION IS IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST. THE BEACHES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO OCCUR. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH
INSULATING EFFECTS OF MORE CLOUDS AND A MODIFIED AIR MASS. MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE GROUND FOG LATE...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE NE
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SENDS A MODERATING POLAR
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST AND NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE MIGHT FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WE/LL SEE A
SWING IN TEMPS OF AS MUCH AS 25-30 DEGREES COLDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM WHAT DAY TIME HIGHS WERE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE DELMARVA TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND...PULLING BEHIND IT RISING PRESSURES FROM OUT OF
SOUTHERN AND SE CANADA THAT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED
STATES. DOWNWARD MOTION AND A DEEP WEST/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA
VOID OF ANY RAIN...WITH AT MOST A LITTLE DEVELOPING FLAT CUMULUS
AND/OR COOL WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 4-5K FT. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE AS COOL AS 6C
NORTH TO 9C SOUTH...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM ACHIEVING MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70 FAR NORTH TO 75 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM WPC IS FOR A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE UKMET
SUGGESTS. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE DEVELOPMENT/POSITION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SC WATERS AND NE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE UNIFORM E/NE FLOW
OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...DOMINATED BY A 12-14 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE E/NE AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORGANIZING UPSTREAM THAT
SWEEPS EAST/SE AND APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC A
VERY SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND NE. NE
AND EAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE DAY...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT...WITH SEAS AT NO HIGHER THAN 2
OR 3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT WEST OR SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
ADVECTION...SMALL BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER
MIXING PROFILES. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB /OR WHAT IS
CONSIDERED A SOMEWHAT FRICTIONLESS LAYER SIMILAR TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE/ NO MORE THAN 20 OR 25 KT WE FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY
JUST BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MIGHT BUMP US INTO THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR
NOW WE/LL RIDE WITH A LOW RISK SINCE WE/RE NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH
SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST






000
FXUS62 KCHS 200441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE.
STRATOCUMULUS IS INCREASING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WERE WEAK
ISENTROPIC ASSENT IS BEGINNING. THESE CLOUDS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR
THE COAST THROUGH SUNRISE...LIKELY SPREADING THROUGH AT LEAST THE
COASTAL COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. FOG IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
INLAND...BUT ITS FORMATION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS AND UPDATE IF NECESSARY TO INCLUDE MENTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL SEND A
POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENN VALLEYS AT NIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN NC AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AN ILL-DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS...BUT STAYS OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE AN NOTED INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDINESS. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ADVECTING ASHORE...PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT HOLDS IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND AFTER A
COOL/CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIGHT EVEN HIT 80 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IF
INSOLATION IS IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST. THE BEACHES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO OCCUR. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH
INSULATING EFFECTS OF MORE CLOUDS AND A MODIFIED AIR MASS. MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE GROUND FOG LATE...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE NE
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SENDS A MODERATING POLAR
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST AND NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE MIGHT FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WE/LL SEE A
SWING IN TEMPS OF AS MUCH AS 25-30 DEGREES COLDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM WHAT DAY TIME HIGHS WERE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE DELMARVA TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND...PULLING BEHIND IT RISING PRESSURES FROM OUT OF
SOUTHERN AND SE CANADA THAT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED
STATES. DOWNWARD MOTION AND A DEEP WEST/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA
VOID OF ANY RAIN...WITH AT MOST A LITTLE DEVELOPING FLAT CUMULUS
AND/OR COOL WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 4-5K FT. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE AS COOL AS 6C
NORTH TO 9C SOUTH...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM ACHIEVING MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70 FAR NORTH TO 75 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM WPC IS FOR A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE UKMET
SUGGESTS. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV/KCHS EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE DEVELOPMENT/POSITION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SC WATERS AND NE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE UNIFORM E/NE FLOW
OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...DOMINATED BY A 12-14 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE E/NE AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORGANIZING UPSTREAM THAT
SWEEPS EAST/SE AND APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC A
VERY SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND NE. NE
AND EAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE DAY...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT...WITH SEAS AT NO HIGHER THAN 2
OR 3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT WEST OR SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
ADVECTION...SMALL BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER
MIXING PROFILES. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB /OR WHAT IS
CONSIDERED A SOMEWHAT FRICTIONLESS LAYER SIMILAR TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE/ NO MORE THAN 20 OR 25 KT WE FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY
JUST BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MIGHT BUMP US INTO THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR
NOW WE/LL RIDE WITH A LOW RISK SINCE WE/RE NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH
SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
958 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS/ASSOCIATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND MOST HOURLY FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS ADDRESSED THIS ISSUE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER LAND BETWEEN CHS AND SAV WAS SUPPORTING A DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS. INLAND...TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING STEADILY THROUGH THE
50S. THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING NEARLY CALM TO LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL COUNTIES...PUSHING TEMPS IN THE 50S
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WERE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES.

HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD SUPPORT MARINE STRATOCUMULUS...AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADVECT ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL COUNTIES LATE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS STEADY OR SUPPORT RISING TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS.

GIVEN LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIGHT WINDS...CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE TONIGHT. AS OF LATE SUNDAY EVENING...POTENTIAL COVERAGE/
IMPACTS OF FOG REMAIN LIMITED AND DO NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN
PUBLIC FORECASTS.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE GEORGIA SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL SEND A
POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENN VALLEYS AT NIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN NC AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AN ILL-DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS...BUT STAYS OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE AN NOTED INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDINESS. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ADVECTING ASHORE...PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT HOLDS IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND AFTER A
COOL/CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIGHT EVEN HIT 80 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IF
INSOLATION IS IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST. THE BEACHES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO OCCUR. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH
INSULATING EFFECTS OF MORE CLOUDS AND A MODIFIED AIR MASS. MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE GROUND FOG LATE...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE NE
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SENDS A MODERATING POLAR
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST AND NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE MIGHT FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WE/LL SEE A
SWING IN TEMPS OF AS MUCH AS 25-30 DEGREES COLDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM WHAT DAY TIME HIGHS WERE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE DELMARVA TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND...PULLING BEHIND IT RISING PRESSURES FROM OUT OF
SOUTHERN AND SE CANADA THAT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED
STATES. DOWNWARD MOTION AND A DEEP WEST/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA
VOID OF ANY RAIN...WITH AT MOST A LITTLE DEVELOPING FLAT CUMULUS
AND/OR COOL WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 4-5K FT. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE AS COOL AS 6C
NORTH TO 9C SOUTH...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM ACHIEVING MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70 FAR NORTH TO 75 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM WPC IS FOR A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE UKMET
SUGGESTS. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATE TONIGHT OR MON AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE DEVELOPMENT/POSITION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SC WATERS AND NE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE UNIFORM E/NE FLOW
OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...DOMINATED BY A 12-14 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE E/NE AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORGANIZING UPSTREAM THAT
SWEEPS EAST/SE AND APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC A
VERY SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND NE. NE
AND EAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE DAY...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT...WITH SEAS AT NO HIGHER THAN 2
OR 3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT WEST OR SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
ADVECTION...SMALL BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER
MIXING PROFILES. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB /OR WHAT IS
CONSIDERED A SOMEWHAT FRICTIONLESS LAYER SIMILAR TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE/ NO MORE THAN 20 OR 25 KT WE FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY
JUST BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MIGHT BUMP US INTO THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR
NOW WE/LL RIDE WITH A LOW RISK SINCE WE/RE NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH
SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 200158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
958 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT WILL SHIFT INTO THE
ATLANTIC AND WILL SUPPORT A WARMING TREND MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
DEWPOINTS/ASSOCIATED RELATIVE HUMIDITY WERE RUNNING HIGHER THAN
EXPECTED LATE SUNDAY EVENING...AND MOST HOURLY FORECAST
ADJUSTMENTS ADDRESSED THIS ISSUE. OTHERWISE...THE OVERALL FORECAST
SCENARIO HAS NOT CHANGED OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE INITIALLY
CENTERED OVER LAND BETWEEN CHS AND SAV WAS SUPPORTING A DECOUPLED
BOUNDARY LAYER/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS MOST
LOCATIONS. INLAND...TEMPERATURES WERE FALLING STEADILY THROUGH THE
50S. THE HIGH WAS PRODUCING NEARLY CALM TO LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS
OVER NORTHERN/CENTRAL COASTAL COUNTIES...PUSHING TEMPS IN THE 50S
VERY CLOSE TO THE COAST...WHILE LIGHT ONSHORE WINDS WERE HOLDING
TEMPS IN THE 60S OVER SOUTH COASTAL COUNTIES.

HIGH CLOUDS OF VARYING THICKNESS WILL STREAM ACROSS NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT WILL HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON TEMPS OVERNIGHT. AS THE
CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS TOWARD THE EAST...A WEAK SURFACE
TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT. MASS/MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE
SHOULD SUPPORT MARINE STRATOCUMULUS...AND LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO ADVECT ONSHORE ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN/COASTAL COUNTIES LATE.
THESE CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPS STEADY OR SUPPORT RISING TEMPS IN
THESE AREAS.

GIVEN LOW TEMP/DEWPOINT SPREADS AND LIGHT WINDS...CANNOT RULE OUT
PATCHY/SHALLOW GROUND FOG ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATE TONIGHT. AS OF LATE SUNDAY EVENING...POTENTIAL COVERAGE/
IMPACTS OF FOG REMAIN LIMITED AND DO NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION WITHIN
PUBLIC FORECASTS.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER/MID 40S WELL
INLAND TO THE LOWER 60S ON THE GEORGIA SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A PROGRESSIVE AND HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN
WILL PREVAIL ALOFT AS A DEEPENING TROUGH DROPS EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY. THIS PROMINENT FEATURE WILL SEND A
POLAR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MIDWEST MONDAY AND THROUGH THE OHIO AND
TENN VALLEYS AT NIGHT. CLOSER TO HOME...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER
EASTERN NC AT DAYBREAK MONDAY WILL BE FORCED INTO THE ATLANTIC IN
ADVANCE OF THE UPSTREAM TROUGH AND COLD FRONT. AN ILL-DEFINED
INVERTED TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEARBY COASTAL
WATERS...BUT STAYS OFFSHORE AND EVENTUALLY PULLS FURTHER AWAY. WEAK
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ABOVE THE COASTAL TROUGH AND SOME RETURN FLOW
AROUND THE RIDGE WILL GENERATE AN NOTED INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS
AND CUMULUS CLOUDINESS. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW LOW-TOPPED
SHOWERS EITHER DEVELOPING OR ADVECTING ASHORE...PROBABILITIES HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO A SILENT 10 PERCENT SINCE THERE IS STILL A DECENT
SUBSIDENCE CAP THAT HOLDS IN PLACE AROUND 850 MB. WARM ADVECTION
WILL HELP IN NEGATING THE GREATER CLOUD COVER...AND AFTER A
COOL/CHILLY START TO THE DAY WILL BOOST MONDAY AFTERNOON TEMPS INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 70S. MIGHT EVEN HIT 80 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER IF
INSOLATION IS IN GREATER SUPPLY THAN NOW FORECAST. THE BEACHES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER WITH ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW TO OCCUR. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE SOME 6-10 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT WITH
INSULATING EFFECTS OF MORE CLOUDS AND A MODIFIED AIR MASS. MIGHT SEE
A LITTLE GROUND FOG LATE...BUT NOTHING SUBSTANTIAL.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE WELL PRONOUNCED TROUGH IN THE NE
WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT DROPS SE FROM THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE
DELMARVA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS SENDS A MODERATING POLAR
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA BY LATE TUESDAY...BEFORE IT PUSHES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT. WEST AND NW FLOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE
TROPOSPHERE IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED
COMPRESSIONAL HEATING AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT MAX TEMPS
NEAR OR ABOVE 80 JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE...BEFORE A RESULTANT SEA
BREEZE MIGHT FORM ALONG THE BARRIER ISLAND COMMUNITIES. THE BEST
DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE STAYS WELL NORTH OF THE REGION...AND THAT
ALONG WITH THE LACK OF FORCING SUGGESTS THAT THE FRONT WILL COME
THROUGH DRY BETWEEN ABOUT 00Z AND 04Z WEDNESDAY. COLD ADVECTION WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER AIR IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND WE/LL SEE A
SWING IN TEMPS OF AS MUCH AS 25-30 DEGREES COLDER BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING FROM WHAT DAY TIME HIGHS WERE TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...THE CLOSED LOW SPINS OFF THE DELMARVA TO THE SOUTH OF
LONG ISLAND...PULLING BEHIND IT RISING PRESSURES FROM OUT OF
SOUTHERN AND SE CANADA THAT HEADS INTO THE SOUTHERN AND SE UNITED
STATES. DOWNWARD MOTION AND A DEEP WEST/NW FLOW WILL KEEP THE AREA
VOID OF ANY RAIN...WITH AT MOST A LITTLE DEVELOPING FLAT CUMULUS
AND/OR COOL WEATHER STRATOCUMULUS WITH CROSS-SECTIONS SHOWING SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED AROUND 4-5K FT. 850 HPA TEMPS ARE AS COOL AS 6C
NORTH TO 9C SOUTH...WHICH WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM ACHIEVING MUCH
HIGHER THAN 70 FAR NORTH TO 75 FAR SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A DEEP/CLOSED UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
A SHALLOW DEEP LAYER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL
PROVIDE GENERALLY LOW LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW WITH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THURSDAY...THEN A GRADUAL MODERATION
TO NEAR NORMAL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY AROUND FRIDAY AS MODELS DIFFER IN
THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH EVOLUTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING CLOSED LOW OVER
NEW ENGLAND. THE GFS KEEPS A MORE OPEN AND PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
THAT MOVES INTO THE SE U.S. BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF
DROPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE GFS KICKS A STRONG
SURFACE LOW /LIKELY TROPICAL IN NATURE/ OUT OF THE YUCATAN REGION
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN FL EARLY SATURDAY...THEN WELL OFFSHORE
OF OUR COAST SUNDAY. THE ECMWF KEEPS A WEAK/BROAD SURFACE LOW IN THE
GULF THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALTHOUGH BOTH SOLUTIONS ARE QUITE
DIFFERENT...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FROM WPC IS FOR A SCENARIO
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THESE TWO EXTREMES...OR CLOSE TO WHAT THE UKMET
SUGGESTS. FOR NOW THIS KEEPS PRECIP/MOISTURE OUT OF OUR REGION
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THUS...KEPT MENTION OF ANY PRECIP OUT OF THIS
FORECAST FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. LOW PROB OF MVFR CIGS AT KSAV LATE TONIGHT OR MON AS LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE PUSHES ONSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW END RISK OF MVFR CONDITIONS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY...OTHERWISE VFR THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TRANSLATE TO WINDS
MAINLY 10 KT OR LESS. WIND DIRECTION WILL DEPEND ON THE ORIENTATION
OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ON THE DEVELOPMENT/POSITION OF A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH. VARIABLE/OFFSHORE WINDS OVER SC WATERS AND NE
WINDS OVER GA WATERS SHOULD TRANSITION TO A MORE UNIFORM E/NE FLOW
OVER ALL WATERS...BUT GIVEN THE WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE REGARDING WIND DIRECTION REMAINS LESS THAN IDEAL. SEAS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 FT...DOMINATED BY A 12-14 SECOND PERIOD
SWELL FROM THE E/NE AND HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A 1021 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE OUTER
BANKS OF NC EARLY IN THE FORECAST CYCLE WILL SLIDE EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT ORGANIZING UPSTREAM THAT
SWEEPS EAST/SE AND APPROACHES THE APPALACHIANS BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY.
ON THE SW PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC A
VERY SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL FORM IN OR NEAR THE LOCAL WATERS BY
LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS IT GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH AND NE. NE
AND EAST WINDS EARLY MONDAY WILL VEER AROUND TO EAST AND SE THROUGH
THE DAY...CLOCKING AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT.
SPEEDS WILL HOLD NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT...WITH SEAS AT NO HIGHER THAN 2
OR 3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A LIGHT WEST OR SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL OUT
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT TUESDAY...BEFORE THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS FOLLOWED BY A NORTHERLY SURGE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING...IN CONJUNCTION WITH COLD
ADVECTION...SMALL BUT STEADY ISALLOBARIC PRESSURE RISES AND BETTER
MIXING PROFILES. WITH GEOSTROPHIC WINDS AT 1000 MB /OR WHAT IS
CONSIDERED A SOMEWHAT FRICTIONLESS LAYER SIMILAR TO THE OCEAN
SURFACE/ NO MORE THAN 20 OR 25 KT WE FEEL THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY
JUST BELOW ANY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...CONTINENTAL HIGH PRESSURE WILL
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE LOCAL WATERS...WITH CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
STAY BELOW ANY ADVISORY CRITERIA.

RIP CURRENTS...ANY SLIGHT DEVIATION FROM THE LATEST FORECAST FOR
MONDAY MIGHT BUMP US INTO THE MODERATE RANGE OF RIP CURRENTS. FOR
NOW WE/LL RIDE WITH A LOW RISK SINCE WE/RE NOT SURE ON HOW MUCH
SWELL ENERGY WILL REMAIN.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...33/SPR
MARINE...33/SPR








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