Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KCHS 051743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND LOW CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051743
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
143 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR TO PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WED...ALTHOUGH THERE IS A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY AND LOW CLOUDS LATE IN THE PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 051512
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1112 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE TO CONTINUE TO THE NORTH AND EAST LEADING TO ONSHORE
WINDS WHICH WILL KEEP COASTAL LOCALES A BIT COOLER IN THE 70S.
INLAND HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL BE A BIT
BREEZY/GUSTY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS
AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME
OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY
OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND BREEZY WINDS WILL MAKE
FOR A SLIGHTLY ENHANCED RISK OF RIPS TODAY ALTHOUGH WE DECIDED TO
LEAVE THE RISK IN THE LOW CATEGORY FOR NOW...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
MUCH INCREASED RISK LATER THIS WEEK AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE
INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
WERE NEEDED. EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 051050
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
650 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMPS
WERE NEEDED. EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE
CONDITIONS AND HIGH TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA
ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS
THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL
CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS
STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...
BUT THE PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY
LOW AS STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN LOW CLOUDS AND/OR GROUND FOG AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 050800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS
COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE STARTS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THIS LOW
WILL SLOWLY DRIFT NORTHWARD ON THURSDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO PUSH
BACK TO THE WEST TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE LOW WILL THEN LINGER IN THE VICINITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND...AND COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXPECT YET ANOTHER DAY FEATURING RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS AND HIGH
TEMPS MAINLY IN THE LOWER 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON THE BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS. ONSHORE WINDS
COULD BECOME RATHER GUSTY...ESPECIALLY AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS
AND PUSHES INLAND THIS AFTERNOON. DIURNAL CUMULUS SHOULD REMAIN
SCATTERED...AND THE PLUME OF CIRRUS STREAMING FROM THE SOUTH
SHOULD REMAIN PRIMARILY OFFSHORE.

SOME HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE DEPICTS ISOLATED SHOWERS PUSHING
ONSHORE INTO FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THE
PROBABILITY FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL SHOULD REMAIN VERY LOW AS
STRONG SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER RAIN-FREE NIGHT WITH NEAR NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ON THE
COAST. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LOW CLOUDS
TO DEVELOP LATE...PERHAPS IMPACTING LATE-NIGHT TEMPERATURE
TRENDS. WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
CONTINUE TO EXTEND INTO THE FORECAST AREA AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. WEDNESDAY
SHOULD BE ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE MODEL SOUNDINGS AND TIME
HEIGHTS SHOW CONSIDERABLE MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AS WELL AS WARM
MID LEVELS THAT KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE SUFFICIENTLY CAPPED. AS
SUCH...THE FORECAST IS DRY FOR INLAND AREAS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL OUT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS...BUT EVEN THIS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR WEST
THE LOW DEVELOPS AND WHAT ITS INITIAL TRACK WILL BE. HIGHS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL...WITH LOW 80S IN MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...NOT MUCH
CHANGE AND THE FORECAST IS DRY THANKS TO THE ATLANTIC LOW BEING SO
FAR OFFSHORE ACCORDING TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. LOWS WILL FALL INTO
THE LOW 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...ATTENTION FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK
CONTINUES TO BE CLOSELY TIED TO THE ATLANTIC LOW THAT DEVELOPS AND
ITS EVENTUAL MOVEMENT BACK TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST. MODEL RUN TO
RUN CONSISTENCY CONTINUES TO LACK AND THE MODEL CONSENSUS IS
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT THAN 24...OR EVEN 12 HOURS AGO. WITH THE 00Z
GUIDANCE...THE OVERALL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO DRIFT
NORTHWARD...WELL OFF THE COAST...THROUGH THURSDAY AND THEN PUSH BACK
TO THE WEST TOWARD THE COAST BEGINNING FRIDAY. THIS FURTHER EAST
CONSENSUS FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT WOULD ACT TO AT THE
VERY LEAST DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL MAINLY THE WEEKEND. THE
ECMWF/GFS ARE SIMILAR WITH A FURTHER OFFSHORE SOLUTION...WHILE THE
NAM IS MUCH STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST. MODEL PHASE ANALYSES
CONTINUE TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR THE LOW TO TAKE ON MORE TROPICAL
OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AS IT DEVELOPS AND EVOLVES. AS
SUCH...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THE SYSTEM TO ACQUIRE SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. GIVEN
THE CURRENT MODEL TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS ANY
NOTABLE IMPACTS WILL BE DELAYED INTO THE WEEKEND. THE FORECAST HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE CURRENT MODELS...WHICH
RESULTS IN LOWER POPS...WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND DIMINISHED WINDS.
PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE LATEST
INFORMATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE OFFSHORE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...AND ESPECIALLY ITS PROXIMITY TO THE COAST. THE
CLOSER TO THE COAST THE LOW TRACKS...THE MORE POTENTIAL THERE IS FOR
IMPACTS SUCH AS RIP CURRENTS...SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING...AND HIGH
SURF. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS FAVORS A SLOWER AND MORE OFFSHORE
SOLUTION...THOUGH THE LACK OF RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH THE MODELS
PREVENTS FORECAST CONFIDENCE IN BEING TOO HIGH. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FORECAST CONFIDENCE BECOMES EVEN LOWER DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE MODELS HANDLE THE SYSTEM VERY DIFFERENTLY. THE GFS TAKES THE LOW
INLAND THEN ALLOWS IT TO LINGER OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE
END OF THE FORECAST. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE ECMWF DOES NOT PUSH THE
LOW INLAND AND ACTUALLY LIFTS IT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST BY TUESDAY.
GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...THE FORECAST FEATURES A WARMING TREND FOR
TEMPERATURES AND POPS NO HIGHER THAN THE CHANCE RANGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
IN GROUND FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN AROUND DAYBREAK WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN LATE IN THE WEEK AND DURING THE WEEKEND...THE
LOW IS EXPECTED TO PUSH WESTWARD TOWARD THE COAST. DEPENDING ON HOW
CLOSE THE LOW COMES TO THE COAST AND ITS STRENGTH...THERE COULD BE
INCREASING CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
AS THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION AUGMENTS SYNOPTIC EAST/NORTHEAST
WINDS...EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS 5-15 KNOTS THIS MORNING WILL INCREASE
TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON. SEAS 2-4 FT
WILL PREVAIL...PERHAPS AS HIGH AS 5 FT BEYOND 20 NM LATE.

AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP WELL SOUTH OF THE WATERS...WINDS
WILL BACK TOWARD THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AVERAGING LESS THAN 20
KT. SEAS OF 3-5 FT ARE EXPECTED...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE FORECAST FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS REMAINS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
TRACK...INTENSITY...AND PROXIMITY TO THE COAST OF THE OFFSHORE LOW
THAT DEVELOPS STARTING ON WEDNESDAY. FORECAST MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR
RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WHICH RESULTS IN A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST.
THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS SEEMS TO FAVOR A WEAKER AND FURTHER
OFFSHORE SOLUTION WHICH WOULD DELAY ANY POTENTIAL IMPACTS UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. REGARDLESS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
STARTING LATE WEDNESDAY AS INCREASING SWELL ENERGY DRIVES SEAS
HIGHER. WINDS WOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES
BACK TO THE WEST AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AROUND THE LOW.
ALSO OF NOTE...MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POSSIBILITY FOR
THE SYSTEM TO TAKE ON SOME TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS.
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER GIVES THE SYSTEM A LOW CHANCE TO
DEVELOP...AND MARINERS ARE URGED TO MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES FOR THE
LATEST INFORMATION.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS CONTINUES TO LOOK
LIKELY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR
THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 050509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A PLUME OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH...BUT THICKEST CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE WINDS 10-15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 050509
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
109 AM EDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST THROUGH
FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND REQUIRED FEW ADJUSTMENTS.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST OVERNIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. A PLUME OF HIGH
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH...BUT THICKEST CLOUDS SHOULD
REMAIN OFFSHORE. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES
A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL
BE POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...AN EASTERLY GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT ONSHORE WINDS 10-15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 050229
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1029 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STRENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. THERE COULD BE SOME
THIN HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC...BUT SKIES
SHOULD GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLEAR. A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP
LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE
FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 50S INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE
LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 042341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 042341
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
741 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING GRADUALLY STENGTHENS
ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH A LACK OF MOISTURE WILL
MAINTAIN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ANY LINGERING
CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT.
A MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY. A FEW PATCHES OF STRATUS AND SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL BE
POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV...BUT NO FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. GUSTY E-SE WINDS SHOULD DEVELOP AT
THE TERMINALS TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS
WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/DPB
MARINE...ECT/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST IN TACT. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST IN TACT. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 041936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST IN TACT. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041936
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
336 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN TONIGHT...AS THE UPPER RIDGE
STRENGTHENS ALOFT. LACK OF FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL KEEP A DRY
FORECAST IN TACT. DIURNAL CU FIELD WILL DIE OFF FAIRLY QUICKLY
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT.
MODERATING AIR MASS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD
THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS DESPITE FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND...TO LOW/MID 60S AT THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
PREVAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY...EXPECT A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. MOST
AREAS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE DAY...BUT A
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE
REGION AND RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS DRIFTING ONSHORE
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT. LATEST 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 80S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 70S NEAR THE
COAST. OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO MID
60S ALONG THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE MAIN CONCERN FOR THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME
WILL DEAL WITH THE TRACK AND INTENSITY OF A SFC LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE EAST FLORIDA COAST/NORTHERN BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
CONTINUES TO IMPROVE...BUT NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN REGARDS TO
THE ACTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW THAT DEVELOPS ON
WEDNESDAY...THEN SHIFTS NORTH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH
THURSDAY.

AT THIS TIME...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER HAS INDICATED A 30
PERCENT CHANCE OF CYCLONE FORMATION OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THURSDAY
OR FRIDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW UNTIL THE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
SOMETIME ON WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS OF A TROPICAL VS SUBTROPICAL
STORM...THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM SUCH SYSTEM WILL REMAIN HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AS IT
APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY. SHOULD THE TRACK BE MORE
EAST...HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO COASTAL
WATERS AND THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS
WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO
NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW AS IT TRACKS NORTH. SHOULD THE TRACK
OF THE LOW BE MORE WEST...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND
INCREASED WINDS WILL EXIST. GIVEN A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTWARD CONSENSUS
FOR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...HAVE INCREASED CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY AND MAINTAINED SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...AROUND
80 INLAND AND MID/UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD DUE
TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SFC LOW NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH
THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THERE ARE STILL
SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE
FORECAST. DUE TO A SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE WILL REVOLVE AROUND
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. MARINE IMPACTS WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY AND STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM
NEAR THE COAST. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO
ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE
SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON
THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL BUILD DURING THE LATTER PART OF
THE WEEK DUE TO STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY WEST...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS...AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED LATER
THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES NEAR THE COAST.
INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 041655
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041655
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 041655
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041655
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1255 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC WILL
ALLOW EASTERLY ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 041407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

WITH THIS UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD GRIDS AS CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

WITH THIS UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD GRIDS AS CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 041407
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1007 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
TODAY. A FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS HINT AT A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A STRONG SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
ALOFT AND WITH LIMITED MOISTURE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP A DRY FORECAST
IN PLACE. IF AN ISOLATED SHOWER DOES DEVELOP...IT WILL BE QUITE
BRIEF WITH VERY LITTLE QPF. OTHERWISE...A DECENT DIURNAL CU FIELD
EXPECTED. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES FROM KCHS 12Z RAOB SUPPORTS
HIGHS IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

WITH THIS UPDATE...MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY T/TD GRIDS AS CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS WERE RUNNING A FEW DEGREES HIGHER.

EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE QUITE
NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A RIDGE THAT
EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. AT THE
SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND INTO GEORGIA
AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AND
COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE COAST. LAND AREAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO PLENTY OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHOWERS
OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME WEAK SURFACE
CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY AND THE
DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY
QUIET. TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE
PREVAILING EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT
IN THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR
UPPER 50S TO LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARDS
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...BSH/ECT/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
642 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS...MAINLY
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ALTOCUMULUS OVER SC COUNTIES.

AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE ONSHORE
AND A POOL OF VORTICITY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BECOMES
CUT-OFF OVER THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
NON-ZERO POPS ARE REASONABLE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH A
DECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SPREAD OUT UNDER THE
INVERSION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH NO EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID
80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON AREA BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE. WHILE FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY
AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY QUIET.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARD
THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
642 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS...MAINLY
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ALTOCUMULUS OVER SC COUNTIES.

AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE ONSHORE
AND A POOL OF VORTICITY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BECOMES
CUT-OFF OVER THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
NON-ZERO POPS ARE REASONABLE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH A
DECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SPREAD OUT UNDER THE
INVERSION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH NO EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID
80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON AREA BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE. WHILE FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY
AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY QUIET.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARD
THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 041042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
642 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS...MAINLY
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ALTOCUMULUS OVER SC COUNTIES.

AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE ONSHORE
AND A POOL OF VORTICITY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BECOMES
CUT-OFF OVER THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
NON-ZERO POPS ARE REASONABLE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH A
DECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SPREAD OUT UNDER THE
INVERSION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH NO EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID
80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON AREA BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE. WHILE FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY
AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY QUIET.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARD
THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 041042
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
642 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...ONGOING FORECASTS REMAINED ON TRACK AND
REQUIRED ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY PARAMETERS...MAINLY
CLOUD COVER TO ACCOUNT FOR ALTOCUMULUS OVER SC COUNTIES.

AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE ONSHORE
AND A POOL OF VORTICITY NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BECOMES
CUT-OFF OVER THE REGION UNDER A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HIGH
RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE
NON-ZERO POPS ARE REASONABLE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN SHALLOW SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD-PRESSED TO DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH A
DECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SPREAD OUT UNDER THE
INVERSION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH NO EXPLICIT
MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID
80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON AREA BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE. WHILE FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY
AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY QUIET.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG TOWARD
THE END OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM REVOLVES
AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST
COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL MARINE
IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT
THE SYSTEM COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN
THE WEEK. REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LEADING TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS.
GALES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE
LOW. SEAS WILL RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS
TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE
LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER
TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040827
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TO START...PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT AND IS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM. AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE ONSHORE AND A POOL OF VORTICITY NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BECOMES CUT-OFF OVER THE REGION UNDER A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NON-ZERO POPS ARE REASONABLE...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DEPICTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN SHALLOW
SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH A DECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SPREAD
OUT UNDER THE INVERSION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH
NO EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID
80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON AREA BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE. WHILE FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY
AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY QUIET.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
REVOLVES AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL
MARINE IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING
TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL
RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040827
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
427 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY. AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY...AND LIFT NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE LOW COULD THEN MEANDER BACK TOWARD THE COAST
THROUGH FRIDAY...AND LINGER NEARBY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TO START...PATCHY GROUND FOG THROUGH DAYBREAK SHOULD REMAIN
LIMITED IN COVERAGE AND IMPACT AND IS NOT INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE NOTED EARLY MONDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS BEYOND 20 NM. AS ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH
SHALLOW MARINE MOISTURE ONSHORE AND A POOL OF VORTICITY NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BECOMES CUT-OFF OVER THE REGION UNDER A
BUILDING UPPER RIDGE...HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT
ISOLATED/DIURNAL SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AND DISSIPATE ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE NON-ZERO POPS ARE REASONABLE...STRONG
SUBSIDENCE DEPICTED BY MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGESTS THAT EVEN SHALLOW
SHOWERS WITH MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN HARD-PRESSED TO
DEVELOP...ALTHOUGH A DECENT DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD SHOULD SPREAD
OUT UNDER THE INVERSION. THUS...HELD POPS BELOW 10 PERCENT WITH
NO EXPLICIT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE COMMON AWAY FROM THE
COAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND A FEW INLAND SPOTS COULD REACH THE MID
80S. ONSHORE WINDS WILL MAINTAIN COOLER TEMPERATURES MAINLY
IN THE LOWER/MID 70S ON AREA BEACHES/SEA ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EXPECT ANOTHER TRANQUIL NIGHT AS ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES
ONSHORE ACROSS THE REGION. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S
INLAND TO MID 60S ON THE COAST. PATCHY GROUND FOG COULD ONCE AGAIN
DEVELOP LATE. WHILE FOG HAS NOT YET BEEN INCLUDED WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS...

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
BE QUITE NEBULOUS AND SUMMERLIKE WITH THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A
RIDGE THAT EXTENDS NORTH AND NORTHWEST BACK TOWARD THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL
EXTEND INTO GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS LEADING TO A PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH THE DAY. OVERNIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP
TO THE SOUTH AND COASTAL TROUGH BECOMES BETTER DEFINED ALONG THE
COAST. LAND AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DRY ON TUESDAY...THANKS TO
PLENTY OF MID/UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR AND WARM MID LEVELS. THERE MAY BE
ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF THE COASTAL WATERS WITHIN SOME
WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE...BUT ANY ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. OVERNIGHT...MUCH OF THE COLUMN REMAINS QUITE DRY
AND THE DEVELOPING LOW IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH.
THEREFORE...LAND AREAS ARE DRY AND THE FORECAST IS GENERALLY QUIET.
TUESDAY HIGHS WILL BE HELD IN CHECK THANKS TO THE PREVAILING
EASTERLY FLOW AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO TOP OUT IN THE LOW
80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...LOOK FOR UPPER 50S TO
LOW 60S.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF A
SURFACE LOW THAT DEVELOPS OFF THE FLORIDA EAST COAST/NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT HAS IMPROVED SIGNIFICANTLY...THOUGH
NOTABLE DIFFERENCES REMAIN WITH REGARDS TO PROXIMITY TO THE COAST
AND POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM THE SYSTEM. THERE HAS BEEN A CLEAR
WESTWARD TREND...FIRST IN THE LOCATION OF SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPMENT...SECOND IN THE TRACK PROXIMITY TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST.
THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF OFFER THREE DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS...WITH THE GFS
BEING THE FURTHEST WEST AND THE ECMWF BEING THE FURTHEST EAST. IN
FACT...THE 00Z GFS TAKES THE CENTER OF THE LOW TO JUST OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST BY LATE THURSDAY. IT ALSO REMAINS UNCLEAR IF
CONDITIONS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF THIS SYSTEM TRANSITIONING TO
SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE EARLY MAY SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S WITHIN THE GULF STREAM AND BEYOND. THE
NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
OF THE SYSTEM ACQUIRING SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. BASED ON THE
WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODELS...THE FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO
FEATURE HIGHER POPS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES.
AT THE VERY LEAST...IT APPEARS WE WILL BE DEALING WITH AN INCREASED
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BEACH EROSION WITH
THE PERSISTENT NORTHEAST TO NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND THE LOW. STAY
TUNED FOR FORECAST UPDATES ESPECIALLY AS MODEL AGREEMENT HOPEFULLY
INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE LONG
TERM PERIOD THANKS TO THE PRESENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW
NEAR THE COAST. THOUGH THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT
THERE ARE STILL SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES THAT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT
IMPACT ON THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE WESTWARD TREND IN THE MODEL
GUIDANCE...POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED BUT CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW
ENOUGH TO KEEP POPS IN THE CHANCE RANGE AT BEST. OTHER THAN THE
GFS...THE CONSENSUS IS FOR THE LOW TO PULL AWAY TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR A WARMING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR DIURNAL
CONVECTION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THEN INCREASE AS AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NEAR THE COAST THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN AND LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO START
WILL GIVE WAY TO ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED TO SOME DEGREE BY THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LESS THAN 15
KT...ACCOMPANIED BY SEAS 2-4 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EAST WINDS LESS THAN 20 KT AND SEAS 2-4 FT ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM
REVOLVES AROUND AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFF THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA ON WEDNESDAY AND TRACK NORTH THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK...EVENTUALLY DRAWING CLOSER TO THE COAST. EVENTUAL
MARINE IMPACTS WILL ULTIMATELY BE DETERMINED BY THE PROXIMITY TO THE
COAST AND THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO...THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES TO ADVERTISE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE THAT THE SYSTEM
COULD ACQUIRE SOME SUBTROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS LATE IN THE WEEK.
REGARDLESS...BEGINNING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
FRIDAY...THE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS LEADING
TO AT LEAST LIKELY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS. GALES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL...DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY OF THE LOW. SEAS WILL
RAMP UP DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK THANKS TO THE
STRENGTHENING WINDS AND SWELL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED FURTHER WESTWARD RECENTLY...AND FURTHER TRENDS WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED IN THE COMING DAYS.

RIP CURRENTS... AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED
ESPECIALLY LATER THIS WEEK AND THIS WEEKEND AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
NEAR THE COAST. INCREASING SWELL ENERGY AND COASTAL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE LOW WILL BE THE MAIN CAUSES FOR THE INCREASED RIP CURRENT
RISK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...BSH/SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...BSH/SPR
MARINE...BSH/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE
NIGHT...WITH ONLY PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS IMPACTING OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT
SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
GIVEN CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND
RATHER DRY MOISTURE PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE
NIGHT...WITH ONLY PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS IMPACTING OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT
SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
GIVEN CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND
RATHER DRY MOISTURE PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040535
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
135 AM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG
SUBSIDENCE AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE
NIGHT...WITH ONLY PATCHY ALTOCUMULUS IMPACTING OTHERWISE MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES. EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT
SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
GIVEN CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND
RATHER DRY MOISTURE PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE LOWER/MID 50S INLAND TO
THE LOWER/MID 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL
MAINTAIN MILDER TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.
VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR BRIEF VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN GROUND FOG
AROUND DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL KEEP SE WINDS 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS AROUND 2 FT WILL
PREVAIL.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ/SPR
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040221
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE NIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
GIVEN CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND
RATHER DRY MOISTURE PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/RFM
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040221
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1021 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE NIGHT...WITH
GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING
THAT SHALLOW GROUND FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT
GIVEN CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND
RATHER DRY MOISTURE PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT
MENTION OUT OF THE FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/RFM
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 032346
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE NIGHT...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE EVENING AS THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATES. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT SHALLOW GROUND
FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT GIVEN CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND RATHER DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/RFM
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 032346
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE NIGHT...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE EVENING AS THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATES. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT SHALLOW GROUND
FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT GIVEN CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND RATHER DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/RFM
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 032346
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE NIGHT...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE EVENING AS THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATES. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT SHALLOW GROUND
FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT GIVEN CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND RATHER DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/RFM
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032346
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
746 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WHILE RIDGING STRENGTHENS ALOFT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE
AND LIMITED MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A RAIN-FREE NIGHT...WITH SKIES
BECOMING CLEAR BY LATE EVENING AS THE DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD
DISSIPATES. THERE ARE SOME MODELS INDICATING THAT SHALLOW GROUND
FOG COULD TRY TO DEVELOP TOWARD DAYBREAK...BUT GIVEN CROSS-OVER
TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL LIKELY NOT BE MET AND RATHER DRY MOISTURE
PROFILES JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE HAVE LEFT MENTION OUT OF THE
FORECAST. FORECAST LOWS REMAIN ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS...GENERALLY RANGING
FROM THE MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER 50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST
WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A BIT MILDER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ/RFM
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
COUPLE MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...HOWEVER CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE. TRENDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AGAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
COUPLE MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...HOWEVER CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE. TRENDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AGAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
COUPLE MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...HOWEVER CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE. TRENDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AGAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND COULD MEANDER
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...QUIET AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS THE FORECAST AREA
REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. DIURNAL CUMULUS FIELD WILL QUICKLY DIE OFF
AFTER SUNSET...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. A
COUPLE MODELS HINT AT SOME LIGHT FOG DEVELOPING TOWARDS
SUNRISE...HOWEVER CROSSOVER TEMPS WILL NOT BE REACHED AND
SOUNDINGS REMAIN QUITE DRY IMMEDIATELY ABOVE THE SURFACE. TRENDED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE AGAIN GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM MID 50S INLAND TO UPPER
50S/LOW 60S ALONG THE COAST WHERE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES A BIT MORE MILD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY...A VERY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL BE OVER THE REGION FOR MUCH
OF THE DAY...WHILE AT THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
CENTERED NORTHEAST OF THE AREA OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE IS ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED TO BE INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT ANY POP
MENTION. LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL VEER TO EASTERLY BY AFTERNOON...WHICH
WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPS A LITTLE COOLER AT THE COAST IN THE MID 70S.
AWAY FROM THE COAST...EXPECT HIGHS AROUND 80 TO THE LOWER 80S.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...A DEEP LAYER RIDGE AXIS SETS UP
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA ACROSS NORTH CAROLINA AND TENNESSEE. THIS
WILL RESULT IN GENERALLY EASTERLY WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE
PLEASANT WITH HIGHS AROUND 80 AND LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S
INLAND...AND LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST. CHANCES FOR RAINFALL WILL
REMAIN LESS THAN 15% GIVEN LACK OF ANY UPPER FORCING AND DEEP LAYER
MOISTURE.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS START TO DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS DURING THIS
TIME FRAME CONCERNING THE POTENTIAL FOR A LOW TO DEVELOP NORTH OF
THE BAHAMAS.  BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP ANY LOW DEVELOPMENT AND
ASSOCIATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS
PERIOD. THE GFS CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER AND MORE WEST WITH THE
LOW THAN THE ECMWF...BUT STILL WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA. THE NHC
ISSUED A SPECIAL OUTLOOK ON THIS SYSTEM...GIVING IT A 30% CHANCE TO
BECOME TROPICAL THROUGH 5 DAYS.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THE SYSTEM BECOMES TROPICAL...ITS
EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND POSITION WILL DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS OUR AREA
RECEIVES. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST FORECASTS AND STATEMENTS FROM OUR
OFFICE AND THE NHC ON THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SYSTEM TO DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THIS WEEK. THE GLOBAL MODELS
CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A LOW PRESSURE CENTER MOVING SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. IF THE SYSTEM MOVES
FURTHER WEST/CLOSER TO OUR COAST...THEN IMPACT ON FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY...ESPECIALLY BY LATER
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BECOMES ANCHORED OVER THE MID ATLANTIC. WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL KEEP WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT. SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL EVENTUALLY
BACK MORE TO THE EAST NEAR DAYBREAK. SEAS ON AVERAGE WILL BE
AROUND 2 FEET IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS...3 FEET IN THE OUTER
PORTIONS.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED AS A DEEP LAYER
RIDGE SETS UP NORTH OF THE REGION OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. THIS
WILL RESULT IN EASTERLY FLOW OF GENERALLY 15 KTS OR LESS AND SEAS OF
4 FT OR LESS.

BY WEDNESDAY...MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE ON THE STRENGTH AND POSITION
OF THE LOW THAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS.
LATEST WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE TRIES TO BRING IN 6-7 FOOT SEAS BY LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS. HOWEVER...
THIS GUIDANCE IS BASED OFF OF THE GFS SOLUTION...WHICH IS CURRENTLY
THE STRONGEST WITH THE LOW AND FARTHEST NORTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CAPPED
WINDS AROUND 6 FT...WHICH IS STILL LOW END SCA FOR THE OFFSHORE GA
WATERS.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE FORECAST WILL HINGE ENTIRELY ON THE
STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING IN FROM THE
SOUTH. FOR NOW...HAVE CONTINUED A SLOW RAMP UP IN WINDS AND SEAS AS
THE AREA WILL POSSIBLY BE AT LEAST ON THE WEST/NORTHWEST SIDE OF A
DEVELOPING LOW CENTER...WHICH NHC HAS RECENTLY PUT A 30% CHANCE OF
BECOMING TROPICAL IN NATURE. THEREFORE...EXPECT THAT SCA OR HIGH
WINDS/SEAS WILL BECOME MORE LIKELY BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...RIP CURRENTS CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN AS WE PROGRESS
THROUGH THE WEEK. HOWEVER...THE RISK WILL DEPEND VERY MUCH ON THE
EVENTUAL EVOLUTION OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. FOR
NOW...EXPECT THAT RIP RISKS WILL INCREASE BY MID AND LATE WEEK AS
SOME HIGHER SWELL AND POSSIBLY INCREASING WINDS MOVE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031651
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM 12Z KCHS RAOB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. WITH THIS
UPDATE...TRENDED DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST
OBS. OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOW FOR A HUGE REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME FROM BACK
SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031651
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM 12Z KCHS RAOB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. WITH THIS
UPDATE...TRENDED DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST
OBS. OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOW FOR A HUGE REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME FROM BACK
SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031651
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM 12Z KCHS RAOB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. WITH THIS
UPDATE...TRENDED DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST
OBS. OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOW FOR A HUGE REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME FROM BACK
SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031651
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1251 PM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM 12Z KCHS RAOB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. WITH THIS
UPDATE...TRENDED DEW POINTS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES BASED ON LATEST
OBS. OTHERWISE...ONGOING FORECAST WAS ON TRACK.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOW FOR A HUGE REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME FROM BACK
SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031402
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM 12Z KCHS RAOB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. ONGOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOW FOR A HUGE REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME FROM BACK
SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031402
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD MAINTAINS
CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE
ATLANTIC THROUGH THE DAY...ALLOWING LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW TO DEVELOP.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF MOISTURE
WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN PLACE. SOME DIURNAL CU IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL QUICKLY WANE AFTER SUNSET.
1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES FROM 12Z KCHS RAOB SUPPORTS HIGHS IN
THE LOW 80S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. ONGOING
FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE...SO VERY LITTLE CHANGE WAS NEEDED WITH
THIS UPDATE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE WELL OUT IN THE ATLANTIC WILL
PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOW FOR A HUGE REGION OF
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME FROM BACK
SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14 SECOND
PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY
ON WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WITH A MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS
TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH
MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY
ON WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WITH A MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS
TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH
MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY
ON WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WITH A MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS
TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH
MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031118
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY
ON WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY
WITH A MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A
LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED
AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS
TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH
MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE SHORE.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL IMPACT A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...MARSHES...OPEN FIELDS AND LOW-LYING RURAL
AREAS. OTHERWISE WE/RE OFF TO ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON
WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH A
MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN
ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-
82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG TIL 13Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL IMPACT A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...MARSHES...OPEN FIELDS AND LOW-LYING RURAL
AREAS. OTHERWISE WE/RE OFF TO ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON
WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH A
MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN
ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-
82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG TIL 13Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL IMPACT A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...MARSHES...OPEN FIELDS AND LOW-LYING RURAL
AREAS. OTHERWISE WE/RE OFF TO ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON
WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH A
MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN
ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-
82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG TIL 13Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031022
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL IMPACT A FEW
LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...MARSHES...OPEN FIELDS AND LOW-LYING RURAL
AREAS. OTHERWISE WE/RE OFF TO ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH
TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON
WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH A
MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN
ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-
82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG TIL 13Z THIS MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030756
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
356 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WATERS TODAY WILL SHIFT FURTHER OFFSHORE
TONIGHT AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND
COULD MEANDER OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST MID WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...PATCHY SHALLOW GROUND FOG WILL DEVELOP AND
IMPACT LOCATIONS NEAR RIVERS...MARSHES AND LOW-LYING RURAL AREAS.
OTHERWISE WE/RE OFF TO ANOTHER COOL START TO THE DAY...WITH TEMPS
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE.

TODAY...A SHORT WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS EARLY ON
WILL GIVE WAY WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGING THE BALANCE OF THE DAY WITH A
MODEST RISE OF HEIGHTS ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE A HUGE RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE COVERS MUCH OF THE REGION EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER...AS BUILDS EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC BEHIND A FILLING CYCLONE
ABOUT 1000 NM OFF THE DELMARVA. PWATS REMAIN LIMITED WITHIN A LARGE
SCALE SUBSIDENT REGIME...BUT THERE IS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE AND STEEP
LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES TO GENERATE FEW-SCATTERED AFTERNOON CUMULUS IN
ADVANCE OF AN INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
TO MODIFY WITH INCREASING 1000-850 MB TEMPS TO SUPPORT MAX TEMPS 80-
82 INLAND FROM THE INTRA-COASTAL...WITH MID AND UPPER 70S CLOSER TO
THE COAST.

TONIGHT...SHORT WAVE RIDGING UPSTAIRS WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING MID LEVEL PERTURBATION CROSSING THE APPALACHIANS OF NC
LATE. THIS CAUSES THE SURFACE HIGH TO START TILTING INTO AN EAST/NE
TO WEST/SW ORIENTATION AS IT SLIDES FURTHER INTO THE ATLANTIC AND
EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE LOCAL DISTRICT. DIURNAL CLOUDS WILL FADE
WITH SUNSET...BUT THERE IS A LITTLE ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE 295K
SURFACE THAT MAY PRODUCE A FEW CLOUDS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT. AS DEW POINTS CONTINUE THEIR CLIMB IT WILL LEAD TO SOME
FOG POTENTIAL...BUT GIVEN LARGE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS AND
TEMPS HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME ACHIEVING THEIR CROSS-OVER VALUES...WE
HAVE NO REASON TO ADD ANY FOG TO THE FORECAST. AT A MINIMUM THERE
WILL BE SOME GROUND FOG. THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND SHALLOW ONSHORE
FLOW WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM FALLING ANY LOWER THAN THE MID-UPPER
50S INLAND AND LOWER-MID 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED DIURNAL SHOWER DURING ANY AFTERNOON
DURING THIS PERIOD DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW AND A POOL OF VORTICITY OVER
THE REGION...CUT-OFF WITHIN A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE. HOWEVER...GIVEN
DRY/CAPPED MODEL SOUNDINGS...MAINTAINED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT AND A
RAIN-FREE FORECAST THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 80S WILL BE
COMMON AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...AND MID 80S ARE ATTAINABLE
EACH DAY WELL INLAND. LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S TO LOWER/MID 60S
WILL PREVAIL. ALSO OF NOTE...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT PATCHY GROUND FOG EACH LATE NIGHT/EARLY
MORNING. HOWEVER...THE PROBABILITY AND POTENTIAL COVERAGE/IMPACTS DO
NOT JUSTIFY A MENTION OF FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ATTENTION CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS BY MID-WEEK. SINCE THE SURFACE
AND UPPER LOWS WILL RESIDE WITHIN A REX BLOCK PATTERN...BLOCKED BY
THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH...SLOW AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT OF THE SURFACE
LOW APPEARS LIKELY LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. IN FACT...LATEST
GUIDANCE EXHIBITS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD REGARDING THE STRENGTH...TRACK
AND RELATIVE TROPICAL/EXTRATROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF THE LOW...AND
THIS TRANSLATES TO A HIGH DEGREE OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION ONE CHOOSES...
DISCOUNTING THE 03/00 UTC CANADIAN SCENARIO A SIGNIFICANT/HIGH
IMPACT SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY.

THE POTENTIAL FOR MOISTURE TO PUSH ONSHORE IS SUFFICIENT TO JUSTIFY
LOW POPS ESPECIALLY ALONG/EAST OF INTERSTATE 95 FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW EVEN REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. THE ONGOING RAIN-FREE REGIME COULD
PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND ESPECIALLY IF A WEAK LOW/TROUGH REMAINS
FARTHER OFFSHORE. OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN MAYBE A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG FROM 10-13Z THIS
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...DEEP BUT WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE OUT IN THE ATLANTIC NEAR
36N/60W WILL PULL FURTHER INTO THE OPEN OCEAN AND ALLOWS FOR A HUGE
REGION OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES AND
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THIS WILL RESULT IN A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS...AS GENTLE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS FORM
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON. MORE OF A CONCERN WILL COME
FROM BACK SWELL PROPAGATING FROM THE ATLANTIC LOW...PRODUCING 12-14
SECOND PERIOD SWELLS OF 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE PULLS A LITTLE FURTHER SEAWARD AS ITS
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SETS LIFTS NORTH OF THE MARINE COMMUNITY. THIS
WILL GENERATE SE WINDS OF 10 KT OR LESS THAT BACK MORE EASTERLY
LATE. SOME OF THE SWELL ENERGY WILL START TO DISSIPATE LATE...SO
SEAS WON/T BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN
SYNOPTIC SCALE ONSHORE FLOW THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE BAHAMAS AND DRIFTS ERRATICALLY OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST MID TO LATE WEEK...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL TRANSLATE TO INCREASING WINDS...AND A BUILDING SWELL SHOULD
SPREAD INTO THE WATERS. 03/00 UTC WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BASICALLY
DOUBLED SEAS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
GIVEN THE HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
POSITION OF THE SURFACE LOW DURING THIS PERIOD...MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS
ARE NOT JUSTIFIED. EVEN SO... THE TIGHT GRADIENT AND INCREASING
FETCH BETWEEN THE SURFACE LOW/TROUGH AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
SHOULD PUSH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SEAS AND PERHAPS SCA WINDS INTO AT
LEAST PART OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WEEK.

RIP CURRENTS...WE/RE SHOWING A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AT AREA
BEACHES TODAY...THE RESULT OF SMALL BUT LONG PERIOD SWELLS...SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND THE FULL MOON. ALWAYS SWIM NEAR A LIFE
GUARD.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REGARDING MANY ASPECTS OF OFFSHORE LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS HIGH. HOWEVER...ODDS STILL FAVOR A BUILDING SWELL
REACHING BEACHES AND INCREASING THE RIP CURRENT RISK MID/LATE WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP
CURRENT POTENTIAL WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030516
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL BRING A
FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN SPOTS...BUT
OTHERWISE WE LOOK FOR CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LIMITED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAS SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
BUT THEY ARE BEING OFFSET SOME BY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND A LIGHT SW
FLOW IN THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WON/T BE NEARLY
AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW EARLY MAY NORMS. ANY
FOG THAT IS ABLE TO FORM WILL BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT
BEST...MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND MARSHES AND IN LOW-LYING RURAL
SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN MAYBE A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG FROM 10-13Z SUNDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH LAND
BREEZE INFLUENCES. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY IN 12-14 SECOND SWELLS FROM THE EAST AND SE.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 030516
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
116 AM EDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA WILL BRING A
FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS/ALTOCUMULUS CLOUDS IN SPOTS...BUT
OTHERWISE WE LOOK FOR CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. LIMITED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH
LIGHT/CALM WINDS HAS SET UP GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS.
BUT THEY ARE BEING OFFSET SOME BY HIGHER DEW POINTS AND A LIGHT SW
FLOW IN THE PLANETARY BOUNDARY LAYER. TEMPERATURES WON/T BE NEARLY
AS COOL AS LAST NIGHT...BUT STILL A BIT BELOW EARLY MAY NORMS. ANY
FOG THAT IS ABLE TO FORM WILL BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT
BEST...MAINLY NEAR RIVERS AND MARSHES AND IN LOW-LYING RURAL
SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OTHER THAN MAYBE A LITTLE SHALLOW GROUND FOG FROM 10-13Z SUNDAY
MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
06Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY WITH LAND
BREEZE INFLUENCES. SEAS WILL BE 2-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER
WATERS...MAINLY IN 12-14 SECOND SWELLS FROM THE EAST AND SE.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA COULD BRING A
FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH IT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIMITED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS A RESULT...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE RANGING FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA COULD BRING A
FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH IT...BUT FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT
CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
LIMITED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP
GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS A RESULT...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE ON THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE RANGING FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE
MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...ECT/RFM




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 022344
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
744 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION TONIGHT. A FEW
LINGERING DIURNAL CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL DISSIPATE BY MID-EVENING
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...GENERALLY LEADING TO CLEAR
SKIES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. THE CLEAR SKIES COMBINED
WITH LIGHT/CALM WINDS WILL SET UP NEARLY IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP RATHER QUICKLY AS A
RESULT...WITH LOWS FORECAST TO BE ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE
RANGING FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER 50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...ECT/RFM





000
FXUS62 KCHS 021947
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
347 PM EDT SAT MAY 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT. THE HIGH
OVER THE REGION SUNDAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD OFFSHORE AND WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE BAHAMAS...AND THEN
MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY MID TO LATE
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TONIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTS OVERHEAD. A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST FLOW AND CROSS SOUTH CAROLINA TONIGHT. MOISTURE IS
QUITE LIMITED SO NO MORE THAN A FEW CLOUDS EXPECTED. AFTER
SUNSET...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF FAIRLY QUICK GIVEN MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT/CALM WINDS. WITH IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS...HAVE OPTED TO GO ON THE COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM NEAR 50 INLAND...TO THE MID/UPPER
50S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...WEAK UPPER LEVEL WNW FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE DAY. AT
THE SURFACE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED ACROSS THE
MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS HIGH WILL MOVE TO JUST
OFFSHORE BY LATE DAY. THIS WILL ALLOW VERY LIGHT WINDS IN THE
MORNING TO BECOME ESE 5-10 MPH BY AFTERNOON. DESPITE SOME WEAK UPPER
TROUGHING BY LATE DAY...MEAN RH VALUES WILL BE GENERALLY 50% OR
LESS. THUS...WILL CONTINUE A DRY FORECAST. MODEL CROSS SECTIONS SHOW
A BAND OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHICH MAY RESULT
IN MORE FILTERED SUN IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 80 TO THE VERY LOW 80S. HOWEVER...WITH
SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES AROUND 50 IT WILL FEEL VERY PLEASANT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE
RIDGE REMAINS OFFSHORE OVER THE ATLANTIC. DEEP LAYER RH STILL TOO
LOW TO WARRANT ANY MENTION OF PRECIP. WITH LIGHT WINDS...MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S...EXPECT
MIN TEMPERATURES TO RADIATE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 50S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WEAK UPPER TROUGHING WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE PERIOD WITH AN ATLANTIC RIDGE CENTERED WELL EAST OF THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW GENERALLY EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WITH SOME RETURN OF MOISTURE...BUT NOT ENOUGH DEEP LAYER MOISTURE TO
ALLOW MENTION OF PRECIP OVER LAND.

FURTHER SOUTH...ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A SURFACE CIRCULATION
NEAR/JUST NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY LATER TUESDAY. ANY MOISTURE WITH
THIS DEVELOPING LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL SOUTH OF THE
REGION THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY AROUND 80 TO THE
LOWER 80S BOTH DAYS. LOWS MONDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BY MID WEEK...A SUBTROPICAL/HYBRID LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVER/NEAR THE BAHAMAS. 02/00 UTC GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES
THAT THE DEVELOPING LOW WILL INITIALLY TRACK TOWARD THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. HOWEVER...THE PROGRESS OF THE LOW
WILL REMAIN SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE POSITIONED TO THE
NORTH...AND ERRATIC MOVEMENT INCLUDING A SHIFT CLOSER TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. NEVERTHELESS...AS OF EARLY SATURDAY MORNING NO AVAILABLE
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE DEPICTS THE LOW PUSHING ONSHORE ALONG OUR
SC/GA COAST BETWEEN ALTAMAHA SOUND AND THE SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.
FURTHER...MODEL UNCERTAINTY PRECLUDES ANY MENTION OF RAIN ALONG THE
COAST...BUT THIS COULD CHANGE BASED ON GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.  OTHERWISE...HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS IN THE 60S
SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD...PROVIDING
QUIET CONDITIONS OVER THE MARINE ZONES. SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10
KT OR LESS WILL VEER TO THE WEST BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. SEAS WILL BE
1-3 FEET...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER WATERS.

NO HIGHLIGHTS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK/WEDNESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE AREA SUNDAY WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE INTO THE
ATLANTIC MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN EAST-
NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY...VEERING TO EAST-SOUTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH
MIDWEEK.

ALL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP
NEAR/NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS BY MID WEEK. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THIS SYSTEM LATER
NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GENERAL MODEL TRENDS
SEEM TO BE FOR A LOW CENTER TO SLOWLY DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTH-
NORTHEAST TO OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST BY LATE IN THE WORK WEEK.
THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TO SETUP...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFFSHORE AS LARGER SEAS/SWELLS POSSIBLY WORK INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

RIP CURRENTS...GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A STORM SYSTEM TO MOVE UP
FROM THE SOUTH BY MID TO LATE WEEK...EXPECT THAT THE RIP CURRENT
RISK WILL INCREASE TOO. HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...THERE IS
STILL MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVENTUAL STRENGTH AND PATH OF THIS
SYSTEM. THUS...WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE RIP POTENTIAL WITHIN
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND MONITOR THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE
MODEL SOLUTIONS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...RFM
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...ECT/RFM




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities