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000
FXUS62 KCHS 281719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
119 PM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST
OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT
THE SFC...A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...THEN SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST
FLOW OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS INTO THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER
INLAND...MOISTURE LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0
INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK
HEATING AHEAD OF A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. LATEST
RADAR TRENDS AND MESOSCALE ANALYSIS INDICATE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOP REMAIN ON TRACK EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE BULK OF H5
SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS
PRECIP CHANCES WILL REMAIN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES WELL OFFSHORE AND A
SEABREEZE DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME
MORE EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS. SEAS
SHOULD BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE
COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER INLAND...MOISTURE
LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF A
WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE BULK OF H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE AND A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD
BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281445
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1045 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES WHILE A MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS
POSITIONED DOWNSTREAM OFF THE NORTHEAST COAST. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A
BOUNDARY POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN
SLOWLY LIFT NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF LIGHT EAST/NORTHEAST FLOW
OCCURRING ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER INLAND...MOISTURE
LEVELS CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 1.8 TO 2.0 INCHES SHOULD SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS DURING PEAK HEATING AHEAD OF A
WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE THAT BEGINS TO ROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST. THE BULK OF H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS PRECIP CHANCES HAVE
BEEN CAPPED AT 20 PERCENT WITH COVERAGE MAINLY WEST OF INTERSTATE
95.

OVERALL TEMPS WILL BE QUITE WARM THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SHOULD BE
LIMITED A DEGREE OR TWO DUE TO CIRRUS CLOUDS ALOFT. EXPECT MAX TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 80S/LOWER 90S NEAR COASTAL LOCATIONS AND MID/UPPER
90S INLAND. HEAT INDICES WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT CHS AND SAV TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT. FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT
EITHER TERMINAL DUE TO FOG LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW
MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFFSHORE AND A SEABREEZE
DEVELOPS ALONG THE COAST. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10 KTS. SEAS SHOULD
BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKES TIDE LEVELS NEAR
7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH TIDE THIS
EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING FOR
THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST. EVEN IF TIDE
LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...SOME
VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN SOME OF THE
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...ASSUMING
LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS EVENING/S HIGH
TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
907 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...SPR/ST
MARINE...SPR/ST
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281026
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAMS AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-16 TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS ARE OBSERVING DENSE FOG
ATTM...CEILINGS AROUND 100 FT SUGGEST VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST AT KSAV UNTIL ABOUT 13Z WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281026
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
626 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF I-16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...WEBCAMS AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THE
DENSE FOG HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD ENOUGH SOUTH OF I-16 TO ISSUE A
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALTHOUGH NOT ALL AREAS ARE OBSERVING DENSE FOG
ATTM...CEILINGS AROUND 100 FT SUGGEST VISIBILITIES WILL DROP
QUICKLY OVER THE NEXT HOUR. THE ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DENSE FOG WILL PERSIST AT KSAV UNTIL ABOUT 13Z WITH RAPID
IMPROVEMENT THEREAFTER. VFR FOR BOTH KCHS/KSAV FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES
OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS
AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ114>119-
     137>141.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280719
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
319 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN SITUATED BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK.
THEN...BROAD LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND WILL PERSIST OVER THE
REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING
WHERE WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AFFECTED MUCH OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA. SATELLITE DATA SHOW HIGH CLOUDS POISED TO CLEAR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA VERY SOON...WHILE DEBRIS CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED
WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN FOOTHILLS OF NORTH
CAROLINA IS BEGINNING TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA. THE LATEST RAP AND NAM12 1000MB CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICIT PROGS SUGGEST THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG TO
FORM WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF THE I-16
CORRIDOR. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN THE LACK OF CLOUD COVER AND
THERE ARE ALREADY SIGNALS OF LOW STRATUS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP.
WHILE SOME FOG IS LIKELY ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...INCOMING
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS COULD TEMPER THE COVERAGE THERE SOMEWHAT. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG IN THE GRIDDED AND TEXT
FORECASTS THROUGH SUNRISE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL BE
NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE AREA OVER THE COMING HOURS.

THE KCLX RADAR IS PINNING LIGHT RETURNS OFF THE SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY MILITARY CHAFF AND NOT
HYDROMETEORS PER DUAL-POL MULTI-LAYER CORRELATION COEFFICIENT
PRODUCTS. ISOLATED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PERCOLATE OFF THE GEORGIA
COAST NEAR WEAK LOW PRESSURE.

TODAY...THE REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE FAR EASTERN PERIPHERY OF
A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH AN
ADJACENT MID-LEVEL TROUGH POSITIONED WELL OFFSHORE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST ATLANTIC. AS THE SURFACE...DUAL LOW PRESSURE AREAS ARE
NOTED ALONG A BROAD SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN
GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO THE GULF STREAM
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA/GEORGIA COASTS. THE LOW CENTERS WILL REMAIN
ILL-DEFINED TODAY AND LIKELY DISSIPATE AT SOME POINT DURING THE
NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SURFACE TROUGH LINGERS. IT WILL BE ANOTHER
HOT AND MUGGY DAY FOR THE LOWCOUNTRY AND COASTAL EMPIRE WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL BE RATHER WEAK SO ANY
CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP FARTHER INLAND COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON. TWENTY PERCENT POPS LOOK REASONABLE IN THIS SYNOPTIC
REGIME AND MAINLY CONFINED TO AREAS WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 90S INLAND TO THE UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. HEAT INDICES
WILL APPROACH 103-106 IN A FEW LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON WHICH IS
BELOW THE HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 110.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET WITH ONLY
CIRRUS EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE SKY THROUGH THE NIGHT. SOME
STRATOCUMULUS WILL LIKELY LINGER OVER THE COAST WITH THE ONSHORE
FLOW. SOME FOG AND STRATUS IS LIKELY FORM AGAIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...BUT ITS POTENTIAL SEVERITY IS A BIT UNKNOWN THIS FAR
OUT...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PERFORMING WELL BELOW
AVERAGE ON CAPTURE FOG TRENDS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S/NEAR 80 AT THE
BEACHES AND DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WEDNESDAY MORNING...ANY FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS. THEN...ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A CHANNEL OF
VORTICITY/DEFORMATION ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN INLAND UPPER
RIDGE INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. POPS ARE GRADUATED FROM SLIGHT
CHANCE NEAR THE COAST TO CHANCE ALONG/WEST OF I-95 WHERE HIGHER
PWATS WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER
LAND...ALTHOUGH THE GFS MAINTAINS CONVECTION NEAR THE COAST INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MEANWHILE...MODEL SOUNDINGS AND THE 28/00Z NAM PROG
OF 1000 MB PRESSURE CONDENSATION DEFICITS SUGGESTS THAT FOG/STRATUS
COULD DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S INLAND AND 75-80F CLOSE TO THE COAST.

EXPECT A SIMILAR REGIME THURSDAY. ANY MORNING FOG/STRATUS WILL GIVE
WAY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKIES...AND ISOLATED/SCATTERED DIURNAL
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN DEVELOP ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ACCOUNTING FOR THE EAST/WEST MOISTURE
GRADIENT WHICH SHOULD PERSIST ACROSS THE REGION...POPS ARE TAPERED
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE COAST TO CHANCE INLAND. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S INLAND AND 80S ON THE
BEACHES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS/FOG COULD DIMINISH THURSDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...DIURNAL/EVENING CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE.
DESPITE THE 28/00Z GFS DEPICTION OF PERSISTENT CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT WITH NO MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION OVER LAND AFTER MIDNIGHT.

PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS...FRIDAY SHOULD PROVE TO BE THE MOST
CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH AT THE
SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE REGION...AND A
PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE FEATURING PWATS WELL OVER 2 INCHES/1 TO 2
STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WILL SAG INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH. THIS REGIME SHOULD READILY SUPPORT AT LEAST SCATTERED/
NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. IN GENERAL...LATEST
GUIDANCE POINTS TO HIGHEST POPS ACROSS INTERIOR/NORTHERN
COUNTIES...THUS INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS THERE FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THIS SCENARIO WILL LIKELY CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
MEANWHILE...FRIDAY TEMPERATURES ARE TRICKY DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE TIMING OF CONVECTION INITIATION. THUS...DID NOT MAKE
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO ONGOING TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER/MID 90S
INLAND AND 80S ALONG THE COAST...BUT CONVECTION/ASSOCIATED CLOUD
COVER COULD GREATLY ALTER MIDDAY/AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER/LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL APPEARS
LIMITED WITHIN DIURNAL CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
FRIDAY...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD INCREASE...ALTHOUGH
FORECAST INSTABILITY IS NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE. OF GREATER
CONCERN...HIGH PWATS AND WEAK TROPOSPHERIC FLOW COULD PROMOTE
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEGINNING FRIDAY. IN PARTICULAR...
IF HEAVY RAIN FALLS ALONG THE COAST DURING ELEVATED HIGH TIDES...
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING COULD BE ENHANCED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UNSETTLED REGIME FEATURING ABOVE NORMAL POPS AND BELOW NORMAL
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS A DEEP TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE/AN ASSOCIATED PLUME OF ENHANCED MOISTURE/HIGH PWATS
RESIDES OVER THE REGION. SEVERAL FACTORS REDUCE CONFIDENCE REGARDING
FORECAST DETAILS...MAINLY RELATED TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA
HIGH AND THE INTERACTION OF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE WITH THE TROUGH OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. IF THE ATLANTIC RIDGE DOES NOT STRENGTHEN...THE
TROUGH AND DEEPEST MOISTURE REMAIN OVER THE REGION OR EVEN PUSH
SLIGHTLY OFFSHORE AS DEPICTED BY THE 28/00Z OPERATIONAL EUROPEAN. ON
THE OTHER HAND...IF THE BERMUDA HIGH EXPANDS...THE TROUGH AND DEEPER
MOISTURE COULD BE SHUNTED INLAND...SUPPORTING A SUBTLE
WARMING/DRYING TREND ESPECIALLY EARLY NEXT WEEK. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND THE USUAL MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING CONVECTION EVOLUTION...CONTINUED TO CAP MAXIMUM POPS
AROUND 50 PERCENT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. EVENTUALLY...
PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF
THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE
00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
STRATUS/FOG WEDNESDAY MORNING. A LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS EXISTS WITHIN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS/ASSOCIATED FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WILL INCREASE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR THIS
MORNING. APPROACHING DEBRIS CLOUDINESS SHOULD KEEP THE FOG IN
CHECK...BUT TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED. A MORE UNIFORM EAST FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPS AND WEAK LOW PRESSURE PASSES OFF TO THE EAST. WINDS LOOK
TO REMAIN 10 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS AVERAGING 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...EAST WINDS WILL TIP BACK TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT WITH
SPEEDS AROUND 5 KT. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT...EXCEPT 1-2 FT OVER
THE GEORGIA NEARSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ONSHORE WINDS WILL PERSIST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OCCURRING DURING
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN
AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER THAN 2-4 FT...HIGHEST
BEYOND 20 NM. AFTER A TRANSITION THROUGH A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST BY
THIS WEEKEND...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH
THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN BETWEEN 2-4 FT NEARSHORE AND 4-5 FT BEYOND 20 NM THIS
WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCAL HAZARDS AND COULD
GREATLY ALTER SYNOPTIC WINDS ESPECIALLY LATE WEEK THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD FAIRLY STEADY FOR THE NEXT
12 HOURS OR SO. CURRENT EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE TAKE TIDE
LEVELS VERY NEAR 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR HIGH
TIDE THIS EVENING...WHICH IS THE THRESHOLD FOR SHALLOW COASTAL
FLOODING FOR THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
IF THIS TREND CONTINUES...BUT THE EVENT LOOKS MARGINAL AT BEST.
EVEN IF TIDE LEVELS DO NOT REACH 7.0 FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR...SOME VERY MINOR SALT WATER INUNDATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
IN SOME OF THE NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS OF DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON...
ASSUMING LEVELS SURPASS 6.8 FT MLLW. THERE ARE NO CONCERNS FOR
SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST WITH THIS
EVENING/S HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

ELEVATED HIGH TIDE LEVELS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THIS WEEKEND/INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK DUE TO THE UPCOMING JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUGUST 2
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS. EXTRATROPICAL SURGE GUIDANCE
CONTINUES TO FORECAST A SERIES OF SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE TIMES OF THE EVENING HIGH TIDES.
EVENING HIGH TIDES COULD ATTAIN COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY LEVELS ALONG
THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AND ALONG
THE GEORGIA COAST WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY THROUGH AT LEAST THIS
WEEKEND. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING/COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1256 AM EDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CAREFULLY MONITORING TRENDS FOR FOG EARLY THIS MORNING. CIRRUS IS
STEADILY THINNING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE.
CONDITIONS APPEAR SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT. LATEST NAM12 1000 HPA
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT PROGS FAVOR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG...MOST LIKELY AS SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS MAY MOVE INTO PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN IS FOG/STRATUS THROUGH SUNRISE. CONDITIONS
APPEAR SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY MORNING WHERE DENSE FOG WAS FAIRLY
WIDESPREAD. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE FAVORS KSAV FOR THE
HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR IFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS PRIOR TO
SUNRISE...ASSUMING A BATCH OF MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVES INTO THE KCHS
AREA AS EXPECTED. WILL GO AHEAD AND SHOW PREVAILING LOW-END MVFR
VSBYS 09-1330Z WITH TEMPO IFR FROM 10-12Z...BUT WILL NOT ESTABLISH
CIGS ATTM. AT KCHS...WILL KEEP CONDITIONS LOW-END MVFR. AMENDMENTS
WILL MOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS
TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. VFR WILL PREVAIL ONCE ANY FOG/STRATUS
MIXES OUT BY 13-14Z.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1018 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED AROUND SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
ARE NOW SEEING HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN SC AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER LAND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WE DO ANTICIPATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. INLAND WINDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST WE ARE STILL SEEING
5-7 KT OF FLOW. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER COASTAL AREAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE SUBSIDES AND GEOSTROPHIC
FLOW DROPS TO 5 KT OR LESS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY END UP PREVENTING A REPEAT
OF LAST NIGHT`S DENSE FOG. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL
DUE TO WEAKENING RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT 02Z THE TEMPS WERE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS PRIOR AND THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AS WELL. A MORE GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG LOOK LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280218
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1018 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF CLEAR SKIES OCCURRED AROUND SUNSET...HOWEVER WE
ARE NOW SEEING HIGH CIRRUS SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH ALONG WITH
SOME MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM SHORTWAVE. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHERN SC AND OFF THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION OVER LAND SHOULD DISSIPATE
BEFORE REACHING THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA...THOUGH WE DO ANTICIPATE
A FEW SHOWERS AND TSTMS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS OVERNIGHT.

THE MAIN CHALLENGE OVERNIGHT IS THE FOG POTENTIAL. INLAND WINDS
HAVE DROPPED OFF THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST WE ARE STILL SEEING
5-7 KT OF FLOW. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER COASTAL AREAS BY
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SEA BREEZE SUBSIDES AND GEOSTROPHIC
FLOW DROPS TO 5 KT OR LESS. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
ABUNDANT...THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MAY END UP PREVENTING A REPEAT
OF LAST NIGHT`S DENSE FOG. SURFACE TEMPS WILL BE SLOWER TO COOL
DUE TO WEAKENING RADIATIONAL COOLING. AT 02Z THE TEMPS WERE 2-3
DEGREES WARMER THAN 24 HRS PRIOR AND THE ONSHORE FLOW HAS
DEWPOINTS SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER AS WELL. A MORE GRADUAL COOLING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD PRODUCE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT BUT
THE CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG LOOK LOWER THAN THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272349
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY TUE MORNING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO
FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR THE DEWPOINT LATER TONIGHT. THE WEAK
NORTHEAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE FAVOR FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPING
INLAND AND PUSHING SOUTH TOWARD THE COAST. THE GUIDANCE REMAINS
VERY CONSERVATIVE REGARDING FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS...THUS FAR NO
WORSE THAN MVFR LATE TONIGHT. THE SHORT-RANGE ENSEMBLE IS ALSO
SHOWING PRACTICALLY NO REDUCTIONS IN CATEGORY. QUITE A BIT OF
CIRRUS IS HEADING FOR THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...POTENTIALLY
THROTTLING THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING ENOUGH TO PREVENT A
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG EVENT. AT THIS POINT...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT SOME FOG AND STRATUS WILL DEVELOP...AM NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH TO DEVIATE SIGNIFICANTLY FROM THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE UNTIL SOME TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. THUS WE
MAINTAINED VERY SIMILAR FORECAST FROM THE 18Z TAFS...MVFR VSBY AT
BOTH TERMINALS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID TUESDAY MORNING.

ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS EXPECTED TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
COVERAGE TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY ANY MENTION IN THE 00Z TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATERS. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/JRL
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 272009
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. CONFINED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE IN GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER THIS EVENING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES INCLUDING IT IN THE
FORECAST. SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO JUST
SHOWERS...BUT MAINTAINED A MENTIONED OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
UNTIL POPS ARE DROPPED.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THREAT FOR IMPACTS BY SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS IS VERY LOW AS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED. SO...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATING GENERALLY LIGHT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
FROM 3-5 MILES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT
14Z WEDNESDAY. WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT AND
EVEN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG COULD BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. FOR NOW
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT
FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY
EVEN AS LOW AS LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS WE AGAIN REDEVELOP AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FOG BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATER. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/MTE
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DPB/MTE




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272009
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. CONFINED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE IN GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER THIS EVENING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES INCLUDING IT IN THE
FORECAST. SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO JUST
SHOWERS...BUT MAINTAINED A MENTIONED OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
UNTIL POPS ARE DROPPED.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THREAT FOR IMPACTS BY SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS IS VERY LOW AS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED. SO...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATING GENERALLY LIGHT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
FROM 3-5 MILES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT
14Z WEDNESDAY. WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT AND
EVEN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG COULD BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. FOR NOW
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT
FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY
EVEN AS LOW AS LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS WE AGAIN REDEVELOP AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FOG BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATER. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/MTE
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DPB/MTE





000
FXUS62 KCHS 272009
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
409 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
PRECIPITATION AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT DEVELOPED EARLIER
ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IS DIMINISHING QUICKLY AS THE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WEAKENS. CONFINED MENTIONABLE RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE IN GEORGIA THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A
BRIEF SHOWER THIS EVENING ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN SOUTH
CAROLINA...BUT LIMITED COVERAGE PRECLUDES INCLUDING IT IN THE
FORECAST. SO FAR THE CONVECTION HAS BEEN LIMITED TO JUST
SHOWERS...BUT MAINTAINED A MENTIONED OF AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
UNTIL POPS ARE DROPPED.

CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT BY MORNING IN MOST
AREAS. FOR NOW INCLUDED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST...BUT BASED
ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT COMBINED WITH THE EXPECTED LIGHTER
WINDS TONIGHT...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME DENSE FOG
DEVELOP. LATER FORECASTS MAY NEED TO ADD SOME DENSE FOG TO THE
FORECAST AND IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT DENSE FOG ADVISORIES
MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR SOME AREAS. LOWS TONIGHT WILL
MAINLY BE FROM THE LOWER 70S FAR INLAND TO THE MID TO EVEN UPPER
70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A LARGE MID LVL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE A RELATIVELY FLAT MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...A
SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE WAVES WILL DEVELOP ALONG/NEAR A BOUNDARY
POSITIONED OVER FLORIDA AND OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...THEN LIFT
NORTH/NORTHEAST OFFSHORE. THESE WEAK AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE
THE PRIMARY DRIVER OF PRECIPITATION ALONG COASTAL AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. FURTHER
INLAND...SLIGHTLY MORE COVERAGE ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO
OVERALL CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ROUNDS
THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO OUR WEST AND
ENCOUNTERS AMPLE MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2.0 INCHES
OVER THE SOUTHEAST. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL THEREFORE REMAIN
THE FORECAST FOR INLAND AREAS ON TUESDAY...BEFORE CHANCES OF PRECIP
OCCUR ON WEDNESDAY. A MORE SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL THEN BEGIN TO SET
UP ON THURSDAY BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS. ONCE
AGAIN...CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S NEAR
THE COAST AND MID 90S OVER INLAND LOCATIONS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
REMAIN IN THE MID 70S INLAND TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST.&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THREAT FOR IMPACTS BY SHOWERS TO THE TERMINALS IS VERY LOW AS MUCH
OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY DIMINISHED. SO...VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT. OUR
ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER TONIGHT. MAV
AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATING GENERALLY LIGHT FOG WITH VISIBILITIES
FROM 3-5 MILES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT
14Z WEDNESDAY. WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT AND
EVEN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...HAVE CONCERNS THAT THE FOG COULD BE
MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE GUIDANCE IS ADVERTISING. FOR NOW
GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS QUITE LIKELY THAT
FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REDUCE THE VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY
EVEN AS LOW AS LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS WE AGAIN REDEVELOP AROUND 14Z
WEDNESDAY AS THE FOG BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TONIGHT...DIFFICULT WIND FORECAST IN TERMS OF DIRECTION FOR
TONIGHT...BUT THE IMPACTS WILL BE MINIMAL SINCE THE WINDS WILL BE
AOB 10 KNOTS FOR ALL WATER. SEAS ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 2 FEET IN
MANY AREAS. GUIDANCE SHOWS SEAS INCREASING SOME OVERNIGHT UP INTO
THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE...BUT EVEN IF THAT OCCURS THE WATERS WILL BE
QUITE TRANQUIL TONIGHT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS DURING THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...ONSHORE
WINDS WILL PERSIST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT
OCCURRING DURING AFTERNOON SEABREEZE CIRCULATIONS. IN
GENERAL...WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15 KTS WITH SEAS NO HIGHER
THAN 3 FT. WINDS SHOULD THEN BECOME SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN SOME AREAS WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
BETWEEN 2-4 FT THIS WEEKEND...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
HIGH TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING SHOULD REMAIN WELL BELOW COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORY CRITERIA

PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW
SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF EVENING HIGH TIDES
STARTING TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE
THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS
SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2
PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE
GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING
HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC
COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT
THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DPB/MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...SPR
AVIATION...DPB/MTE
MARINE...DPB/MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...DPB/MTE




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON THIS UPDATE...RAISED POPS AND CLOUDS ALONG SEA BREEZE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON PER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WIND...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A
FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING
INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT KCHS
THROUGH ABOUT 20 OR 21Z. SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
COULD ALSO OCCUR AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON...BUT RIGHT NOW IT DOES
NOT APPEAR QUITE AS IMMANENT AS AT KCHS. AFTER THE SEABREEZE
MOVES THROUGH AND WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...ANY THREAT FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY THIS EVENING.
OUTSIDE OF PRECIPITATION WHERE MVFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR...VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF TONIGHT.
OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG LATER TONIGHT.
MAV AND MET GUIDANCE INDICATING GENERALLY LIGHT FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES FROM 3-5 MILES DEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT AND
PERSISTING UNTIL ABOUT 14Z WEDNESDAY. WITH SIMILAR SYNOPTIC
CONDITIONS AS LAST NIGHT AND EVEN LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS...HAVE
CONCERNS THAT THE FOG COULD BE MORE SIGNIFICANT THAN THE GUIDANCE
IS ADVERTISING. FOR NOW GENERALLY FOLLOWED GUIDANCE...BUT IT IS
QUITE LIKELY THAT FOLLOWING SHIFTS WILL NEED TO REDUCE THE
VISIBILITIES...POSSIBLY EVEN AS LOW AS LIFR. VFR CONDITIONS WE
AGAIN REDEVELOP AROUND 14Z WEDNESDAY AS THE FOG BURNS OFF.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271702
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON THIS UPDATE...RAISED POPS AND CLOUDS ALONG SEA BREEZE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON PER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WIND...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A
FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING
INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS AND KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A TSTMS WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271702
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
102 PM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ON THIS UPDATE...RAISED POPS AND CLOUDS ALONG SEA BREEZE THROUGH
MID AFTERNOON PER RADAR AND SATELLITE IMAGES AND TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO WIND...TEMPERATURES AND
DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO
UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A
FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING
INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS AND KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A TSTMS WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271516
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1116 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE SEA BREZE IN GEORGIA.
THINK THAT THIS LARGE OF COVERAGE WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINAL TODAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT RADAR LOOP. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON. LOWERED SEAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN BLENDED THIS INTO PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON SEAS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271516
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1116 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
QUICK UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS ALONG THE SEA BREZE IN GEORGIA.
THINK THAT THIS LARGE OF COVERAGE WILL NOT LAST MORE THAN A FEW
HOURS.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINAL TODAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT RADAR LOOP. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON. LOWERED SEAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN BLENDED THIS INTO PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON SEAS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY ERODING.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH IN THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FURTHER INLAND FURTHER SOUTH A BIT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THINK
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...BUT COULD NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINAL TODAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT RADAR LOOP. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON. LOWERED SEAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN BLENDED THIS INTO PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON SEAS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY ERODING.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH IN THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FURTHER INLAND FURTHER SOUTH A BIT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THINK
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...BUT COULD NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINAL TODAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT RADAR LOOP. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON. LOWERED SEAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN BLENDED THIS INTO PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON SEAS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY ERODING.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH IN THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FURTHER INLAND FURTHER SOUTH A BIT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THINK
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...BUT COULD NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINAL TODAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT RADAR LOOP. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON. LOWERED SEAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN BLENDED THIS INTO PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON SEAS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271435
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1035 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FOG HAS LIFTED AND THE LOW STRATUS DECK IS QUICKLY ERODING.
LOWERED TEMPERATURES A TOUCH IN THOSE AREAS IMPACTED BY THE CLOUD
COVER FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING. RADAR IMAGERY SUPPORTS EXPANDING
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO AREAS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH. MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FURTHER INLAND FURTHER SOUTH A BIT LATER INTO THE AFTERNOON. THINK
CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS...BUT COULD NOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. AT THE PRESENT TIME THINKING IS
THAT ISOLATED SHOWER AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSHOWER WILL REMAIN EAST
OF THE TERMINAL TODAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A TSTMS
WILL BE AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPANDED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MAINLY SHOWERS ACROSS ALL
WATERS INTO EARLY AFTERNOON PER RECENT RADAR LOOP. CANNOT RULE OUT
A THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY AFTER 12 NOON. LOWERED SEAS BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND THEN BLENDED THIS INTO PREVIOUS
AFTERNOON SEAS FORECAST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MTE
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271119
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS CEASED NOW THAT THE SUN IS COMING UP.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON
DEVELOPING SHOWER/TSTMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AN INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KSAV...SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH A RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR
UNTIL 9 AM. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM TO
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER
HARBOR...MAINLY NORTH OF THE RAVENEL BRIDGE.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271119
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS CEASED NOW THAT THE SUN IS COMING UP.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON
DEVELOPING SHOWER/TSTMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AN INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KSAV...SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH A RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR
UNTIL 9 AM. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM TO
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER
HARBOR...MAINLY NORTH OF THE RAVENEL BRIDGE.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271119
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE SUNRISE UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
THE FOG AND STRATUS HAS CEASED NOW THAT THE SUN IS COMING UP.
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG CONTINUES ACROSS MUCH OF THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY AREA. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS HAVE BEEN INSISTENT ON
DEVELOPING SHOWER/TSTMS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. HAVE
GONE AHEAD AN INTRODUCED A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR MOST AREAS ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POP ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO
FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND TRANSIENT. HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S- LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH
MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR
INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON
LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
KCHS...DENSE FOG WILL LINGER AT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 13Z
WITH CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVING THEREAFTER AS MIXING HEIGHTS
INCREASE. EXPECT VFR TO PREVAIL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF
PERIOD.

KSAV...SO FAR FOG HAS BEEN REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL...ALTHOUGH IFR CIGS HAVE DEVELOPED. LATEST RAP SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST IFR CIGS WILL LINGER THROUGH ABOUT 14Z WITH A RAPID
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR EXPECTED THEREAFTER. VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL BE
AROUND THE TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES
INLAND. DIRECT IMPACTS ARE UNLIKELY GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
THE CONVECTION. WILL NOT INTRODUCE A MENTION OF SHRA OR TSRA WITH
THIS TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR
UNTIL 9 AM. EXPECT AREAS OF DENSE FOG WITH VSBYS LESS THAN 1 NM TO
PREVAIL DURING THIS TIME. THE LOWEST VSBYS WILL OCCUR IN THE UPPER
HARBOR...MAINLY NORTH OF THE RAVENEL BRIDGE.

TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG SPREADING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INTO SCREVEN-EFFINGHAM COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WEBCAMS OUT OF CHARLESTON INDICATE THE FOG IS
PRETTY THICK TO ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR...BUT IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF OOZING TO THE COAST. MOST OF BEAUFORT COUNTY IS ONLY
SEEING LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY IS
SOCKED IN PER WEBCAMS OUT OF THAT AREA. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY INTO INLAND CHATHAM COUNTY...BUT NEED TO SEE THE KSAV
AIRPORT SHOW A REDUCTION BEFORE DOING SO.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG SPREADING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INTO SCREVEN-EFFINGHAM COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WEBCAMS OUT OF CHARLESTON INDICATE THE FOG IS
PRETTY THICK TO ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR...BUT IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF OOZING TO THE COAST. MOST OF BEAUFORT COUNTY IS ONLY
SEEING LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY IS
SOCKED IN PER WEBCAMS OUT OF THAT AREA. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY INTO INLAND CHATHAM COUNTY...BUT NEED TO SEE THE KSAV
AIRPORT SHOW A REDUCTION BEFORE DOING SO.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG SPREADING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INTO SCREVEN-EFFINGHAM COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WEBCAMS OUT OF CHARLESTON INDICATE THE FOG IS
PRETTY THICK TO ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR...BUT IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF OOZING TO THE COAST. MOST OF BEAUFORT COUNTY IS ONLY
SEEING LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY IS
SOCKED IN PER WEBCAMS OUT OF THAT AREA. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY INTO INLAND CHATHAM COUNTY...BUT NEED TO SEE THE KSAV
AIRPORT SHOW A REDUCTION BEFORE DOING SO.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
617 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG SPREADING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...EXPANDED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY TO THE LOWER
SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND INTO SCREVEN-EFFINGHAM COUNTIES IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. WEBCAMS OUT OF CHARLESTON INDICATE THE FOG IS
PRETTY THICK TO ABOUT THE HIGHWAY 17 CORRIDOR...BUT IS SHOWING
SIGNS OF OOZING TO THE COAST. MOST OF BEAUFORT COUNTY IS ONLY
SEEING LOW CEILINGS...BUT THE NORTHERN PART OF THE COUNTY IS
SOCKED IN PER WEBCAMS OUT OF THAT AREA. MAY NEED TO EXPAND THE
ADVISORY INTO INLAND CHATHAM COUNTY...BUT NEED TO SEE THE KSAV
AIRPORT SHOW A REDUCTION BEFORE DOING SO.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ088-101.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-047>052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
533 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS AND DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH
AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS OUT OF COLLETON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH VERY LOW
VSBYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM. THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS
SHOW THE FOG STEADILY EXPANDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
533 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS AND DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH
AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS OUT OF COLLETON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH VERY LOW
VSBYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM. THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS
SHOW THE FOG STEADILY EXPANDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
533 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

...DENSE FOG RAPIDLY EXPANDING WEST AND SOUTH THIS MORNING...

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...STRATUS AND DENSE FOG CONTINUE TO EXPAND SOUTH
AND WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. REPORTS OUT OF COLLETON AND BERKELEY
COUNTIES INDICATE DENSE FOG IS BECOMING WIDESPREAD WITH VERY LOW
VSBYS. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALLENDALE-HAMPTON-
COLLETON-DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES UNTIL 9 AM. THE ADVISORY
MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE COAST AND POSSIBLY INTO PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVER THE NEXT HOUR AS GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS
SHOW THE FOG STEADILY EXPANDING IN THAT DIRECTION.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST
OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE
NORTHEAST FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD
TO DARIEN CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING.
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z.
THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE
COMPARED TO THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN
PLACE...BUT FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP
HOLDING THROUGH THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN
PLACE AND 850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE
DAY...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR
TWO POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA
RIVER. ANY SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT-LIVED AND
TRANSIENT...THUS GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE
THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-
LOWER 90S AT THE COAST WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER
90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND
NORTH OF A METTER-HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM
THE MASSIVE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS WILL BE THE GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ040-
     042>045-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
THROUGH SUNRISE. WEBCAM DATA OUT OF THE CHARLESTON AREA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM KMKS-KDYB-KLRO INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY
ONGOING. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IF
THE STRATUS BUILDS DOWN LOW ENOUGH. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH SEEM
A BIT LOW GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. TRENDS WILL BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED AND THE FORECAST WILL UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS NEEDED.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST
FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN
CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE AND
850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POPS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FROM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT- LIVED AND TRANSIENT...THUS
GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AT THE COAST
WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-
HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THROUGH SUNRISE...RAP SOUNDINGS SUGGEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL
POOL SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT LOW STRATUS AND POSSIBLY SOME FOG
THROUGH SUNRISE. WEBCAM DATA OUT OF THE CHARLESTON AREA AND
OBSERVATIONS FROM KMKS-KDYB-KLRO INDICATE THIS PROCESS IS ALREADY
ONGOING. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT SOME DENSE FOG COULD DEVELOP IF
THE STRATUS BUILDS DOWN LOW ENOUGH. THE LATEST SREF PROBABILITIES
FOR VSBYS LESS THAN 1 MILE ARE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS...WHICH SEEM
A BIT LOW GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT. TRENDS WILL BE CAREFULLY
MONITORED AND THE FORECAST WILL UPDATED ACCORDINGLY AS NEEDED.

TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE REMNANTS
OF AN OLD FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE
COMBINED WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST
FETCH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN
CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE AND
850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POPS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FROM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT- LIVED AND TRANSIENT...THUS
GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AT THE COAST
WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-
HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270659
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN
CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE AND
850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POPS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FROM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT- LIVED AND TRANSIENT...THUS
GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AT THE COAST
WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-
HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270659
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN
CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE AND
850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POPS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FROM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT- LIVED AND TRANSIENT...THUS
GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AT THE COAST
WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-
HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270659
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN
CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE AND
850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POPS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FROM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT- LIVED AND TRANSIENT...THUS
GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AT THE COAST
WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-
HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270659
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
259 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH UNTIL LATE THIS WEEK. THEN...BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN NOSED IN ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS
TODAY AS ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG OR JUST OFFSHORE
THE FLORDIA WEST COAST REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE REMNANTS OF AN OLD
FRONT. THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE TROUGH JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED
WITH COASTAL SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE FAVORABLE NORTHEAST FETCH
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN
CORRIDOR AT JUST ABOUT ANYTIME THROUGH MID-MORNING. SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS LOOK REASONABLE FOR THIS AREA THROUGH 14-15Z. THERE ARE
SIGNALS THAT THE SEA BREEZE COULD BE A BIT MORE ACTIVE COMPARED TO
THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS IN PLACE...BUT
FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT A WEAKENING CAP HOLDING THROUGH
THE DAY. STILL...WITH A HIGHER DEWPOINT REGIME IN PLACE AND
850-700 HPA THETA-E PROGGED TO POOL THROUGH THE DAY...WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO POPS ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AREAS AS WELL AREAS NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. ANY SHOWERS
THAT DO FROM WILL LIKELY BE SHORT- LIVED AND TRANSIENT...THUS
GRIDDED POPS WILL REMAIN BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE MID 90S INLAND TO UPPER 80S-LOWER 90S AT THE COAST
WITH MID 80S AT THE BEACHES. A FEW UPPER 90S COULD OCCUR ACROSS
ACROSS FAR INTERIOR AREAS...ROUGHLY ALONG AND NORTH OF A METTER-
HAMPTON LINE...WHERE LINGERING INFLUENCES FROM THE MASSIVE MID-
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BE THE
GREATEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CUMULUS WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
LOSS OF INSOLATION...BUT THE RISK FOR MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS
MOVING INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN FOR THE COASTAL
COUNTIES. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE DESPITE THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SURFACE TROUGH/FRONTAL REMNANTS DRAWING A BIT
CLOSER TO THE COAST AS A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG
IT. IF THE LOW DRAWS CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED...THE INTRODUCTION OF MENTIONABLE POPS AND INCREASED
CLOUD COVER MAY BE NEEDED. LOW CONFIDENCE ON THE EXACT TRACK ANY
LOW THAT FORMS WILL TAKE. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 70S
INLAND...MID 70S AT THE COAST WITH UPPER 70S AT THE BEACHES AND
DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON.

WHILE WE SHOULD ENTER A SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE CONVECTIVE REGIME
DURING THIS PERIOD...AS COMPARED WITH RECENT DAYS...THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER APPEARS QUITE LOW. EXPECT HIGHS EACH DAY IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S INLAND/MID 80S ON THE BEACHES AND LOWS IN THE LOWER
TO MID 70S INLAND/MID TO UPPER 70S AT THE COAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

TUESDAY...27/00Z GUIDANCE DEPICTS AN ILL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED DEEPER MOISTURE BEGINNING TO SPILL INTO THE REGION FROM
THE NORTH AND INTERACTING WITH THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE AFTERNOON.
WHILE GUIDANCE HAS OFFERED VERSIONS OF THIS SCENARIO FOR THE PAST
FEW DAYS...RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY HAD REMAINED RATHER POOR
ESPECIALLY REGARDING QPF. THE 27/00Z RUNS OF THE NAM AND EUROPEAN
DEPICT A FAIR AMOUNT OF CONVECTION COVERAGE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHILE THE GFS PRODUCES VIRTUALLY NO CONVECTIVE
QPF DURING THIS PERIOD. SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE POPS ARE JUSTIFIED
ESPECIALLY INLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES AND DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY 805-500 MB AIR AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP TO REMAIN OVER THE REGION.

WEDNESDAY...MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS...HIGHEST WEST
OF I-95...AS A WEAK SHORTWAVE PUSHES THROUGH THEN SOUTH OF THE
REGION AND INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE.

PER PROGS OF 850-500 MB RH AND OF K/SHOWALTER INDICES...DRY AIR
ALOFT IS PROGGED TO SURGE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST INTO THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SEPARATING POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE/
ENHANCED PWATS TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
THE GFS HOLDS THIS DRY AIR OFFSHORE...DUE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...WHILE THE NAM AND EUROPEAN PUSH THIS
DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA. MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE/LOW CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT THESE POPS
COULD PROVE TO BEE TOO HIGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A POCKET OF RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED AIR COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION
FRIDAY...PERHAPS LIMITING CONVECTION COVERAGE SOMEWHAT EVEN AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE SOUTHEAST AT THE SURFACE AND
ALOFT. THEN...A TRANSITION TO A WETTER REGIME WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND...AND THIS
UNSETTLED PATTERN COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LATEST
FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS THIS WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY COMMON TO MEDIUM RANGE FORECASTS OF
CONVECTION...CAPPED MAXIMUM POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. EVENTUALLY...PERIODS OF HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW PROBABILITY FOR FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IN EARLY MORNING STRATUS/FOG AND WITHIN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...EAST/NORTHEAST WIND REGIME WILL HOLD IN PLACE TODAY AS THE
AREA REMAINS WEDGED IN BY HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE COAST AND A
SURFACE TROUGH OFFSHORE. SPEEDS WILL BE MODEST FOR LATE JULY...10-15
KT WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SPEEDS IN THE HARBOR AND ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE AS THE SEA BREEZE MOVES INLAND. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT.

TONIGHT...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE TRICKY TO PIN DOWN AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE OFFSHORE TROUGH.
EXPECT NORTHEAST WINDS TO LINGER OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST
FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH DIRECTIONS BACKING NORTH OR EVEN
NORTHWEST FOR THE REMAINING PARTS OF THE MARINE AREA AS THE LOW
PASSES OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. SPEEDS LOOK TO BE AROUND 10 KT WITH
SEAS 2-3 FT.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...WINDS SHOULD TURN
TOWARD THE S/SW FRIDAY-SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT IN
SOME AREAS WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND WITH NOCTURNAL SURGES.
SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND
BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDAL DEPARTURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY RISE TODAY AS WATER LOADS
INTO THE MARSHES AND WATERWAYS DUE TO THE INFLUENCES OF THE
ONGOING EAST/NORTHEAST WIND SURGE AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON
AND PERIGEE. TIDE LEVELS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO COASTAL FLOOD
ADVISORY CRITERIA ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE...BUT THE LATEST SET OF
SURGE MODELS KEEP LEVELS JUST SHY OF THE ADVISORY BENCHMARK OF 7.0
FT MLLW IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. TIDES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOUT
0.50-0.75 FT BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA AT FORT PULASKI ALONG THE
NORTH GEORGIA COAST.

THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AND LIKELY INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL. WHILE THE PROBABILITY FOR A SERIES OF
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE DRAW CLOSER TO
THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO PERSISTENT
EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE
MODEL CONTINUES TO DEPICT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW
COASTAL FLOODING LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-
WEDNESDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT
WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOLID NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN CORRIDOR
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GIVEN
THESE TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME MORE AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THEY ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. OVERNIGHT SEAS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOLID NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN CORRIDOR
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GIVEN
THESE TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME MORE AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THEY ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. OVERNIGHT SEAS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOLID NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN CORRIDOR
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GIVEN
THESE TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME MORE AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THEY ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. OVERNIGHT SEAS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 AM EDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
SOLID NORTHEAST WINDS ARE PRODUCING WEAK SPEED CONVERGENCE ALONG
THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS EARLY THIS
MORNING. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA SETS ARE SIMILAR IN SHOWING ISOLATED
SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE HILTON HEAD TO DARIEN CORRIDOR
THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS GIVEN
THESE TRENDS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR. STRATOCUMULUS LIKELY TO MOVE INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
AND IMPACT THE TERMINALS THROUGH SUNRISE. EXPECT SCATTERED CLOUDS
AROUND 1000 FT...BUT DO NOT EXPECT CIGS TO BECOME ESTABLISHED.
TRENDS WILL BE WATCHED CAREFULLY. SOME LIGHT FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE...ESPECIALLY AT KCHS WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE VERY
HIGH. MAINTAINED 4SM BR 10-12Z AT KCHS AND INTRODUCED 6SM BR FOR
THE SAME TIME PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME MORE AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THEY ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. OVERNIGHT SEAS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270220
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1020 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DRIFT INTO MOST AREAS...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BE THIN OVERNIGHT. FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH A
MODEST INCREASE IN OPAQUE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST WHERE SOME STRATCUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN ONLY
MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADDED A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO THE KCHS TAF LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH AND
THAT ANY STATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SO THAT SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLOSE CALL AT KSAV AS
WELL...BUT THINKING THERE IS THAT WINDS MIGHT NOT DECOUPLE QUITE
AS MUCH AS AT KCHS. CANNOT RULE OUT A 10-20 THOUSAND FOOT DECK OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MONDAY AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME MORE AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THEY ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. OVERNIGHT SEAS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270220
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1020 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
SOME HIGH THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS STARTING TO DRIFT INTO MOST AREAS...BUT
EXPECT IT TO BE THIN OVERNIGHT. FORECAST STILL ON TRACK WITH A
MODEST INCREASE IN OPAQUE CLOUD COVER...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
GEORGIA COAST WHERE SOME STRATCUMULUS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AGAIN ONLY
MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST ON THIS UPDATE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADDED A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO THE KCHS TAF LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH AND
THAT ANY STATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SO THAT SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLOSE CALL AT KSAV AS
WELL...BUT THINKING THERE IS THAT WINDS MIGHT NOT DECOUPLE QUITE
AS MUCH AS AT KCHS. CANNOT RULE OUT A 10-20 THOUSAND FOOT DECK OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MONDAY AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS OVERNIGHT
WITH SPEEDS DROPPING OFF SOME MORE AND MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT
RANGE. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHERN
WATERS WHERE THEY ARE STILL RUNNING NEAR 4 FEET...ESPECIALLY
BEYOND 20 NM OFF THE COAST. OVERNIGHT SEAS SHOULD MAINLY BE IN THE
2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262345
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CU FIELD ALONG SEA BREEZE QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ON THIS UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADDED A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO THE KCHS TAF LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH AND
THAT ANY STATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SO THAT SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLOSE CALL AT KSAV AS
WELL...BUT THINKING THERE IS THAT WINDS MIGHT NOT DECOUPLE QUITE
AS MUCH AS AT KCHS. CANNOT RULE OUT A 10-20 THOUSAND FOOT DECK OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MONDAY AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN AND
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH VELOCITIES
DECREASING TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS AND SEAS MAINLY DROPPING INTO
THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262345
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CU FIELD ALONG SEA BREEZE QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ON THIS UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADDED A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO THE KCHS TAF LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH AND
THAT ANY STATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SO THAT SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLOSE CALL AT KSAV AS
WELL...BUT THINKING THERE IS THAT WINDS MIGHT NOT DECOUPLE QUITE
AS MUCH AS AT KCHS. CANNOT RULE OUT A 10-20 THOUSAND FOOT DECK OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MONDAY AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN AND
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH VELOCITIES
DECREASING TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS AND SEAS MAINLY DROPPING INTO
THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262345
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CU FIELD ALONG SEA BREEZE QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ON THIS UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADDED A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO THE KCHS TAF LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH AND
THAT ANY STATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SO THAT SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLOSE CALL AT KSAV AS
WELL...BUT THINKING THERE IS THAT WINDS MIGHT NOT DECOUPLE QUITE
AS MUCH AS AT KCHS. CANNOT RULE OUT A 10-20 THOUSAND FOOT DECK OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MONDAY AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN AND
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH VELOCITIES
DECREASING TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS AND SEAS MAINLY DROPPING INTO
THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 262345
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
745 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
CU FIELD ALONG SEA BREEZE QUICKLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING THIS EVENING. ONLY MINOR COSMETIC CHANGES TO THE FORECAST
ON THIS UPDATE AS PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND WITH
MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ADDED A 3 HOUR PERIOD OF LIGHT FOG TO THE KCHS TAF LATE TONIGHT.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH AND
THAT ANY STATUS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE JUST EAST OF THE TERMINAL
SO THAT SOME LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE. CLOSE CALL AT KSAV AS
WELL...BUT THINKING THERE IS THAT WINDS MIGHT NOT DECOUPLE QUITE
AS MUCH AS AT KCHS. CANNOT RULE OUT A 10-20 THOUSAND FOOT DECK OF
STRATUS LATE TONIGHT INTO THE FIRST FEW HOURS OF MONDAY AT EITHER
TERMINAL...BUT CURRENT THINKING IS THAT IT IS FAIRLY UNLIKELY TO
OCCUR. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS MOST NEARSHORE WATERS
THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN AND
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND SPEEDS
LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH VELOCITIES
DECREASING TO 10-15 KT MOST AREAS AND SEAS MAINLY DROPPING INTO
THE 2-3 FT RANGE.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...MTE
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MTE
MARINE...MTE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR MVFR/IFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z
MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261933
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
333 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. THE NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP PUSH SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BACK INTO THE COAST
WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP TEMPS A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND COULD
LEAD TO SOME STRATOCUMULUS LATE. SHOWERS SHOULD STAY CONFINED TO
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BUT COULD IMPACT COASTAL AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK.
INLAND AREAS LOOK TO BE THE COOLEST AND HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
STAYING CLOUD FREE...THUS THERE IS ALSO A RISK OF SOME LIGHT FOG
GENERALLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. LOWS MAINLY AROUND 70 INLAND
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN CENTERED TO THE WEST DURING THE
PERIOD. A FAIRLY STRONG CAP WILL EXIST ON MONDAY...GRADUALLY
WEAKENING TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS 500 MB TEMPS COOL AND SOME
SHORTWAVE ENERGY APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE WEDNESDAY. MOISTURE
WILL BE FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY GIVEN THE HIGHEST PWATS NORTH AND
SOUTH OF THE REGION. THE DRY AIR BELOW 500 MB AND MID-LEVEL CAP
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY DAYTIME CONVECTION. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL OCCUR TUESDAY...WHICH ALONG WITH THE
COOLING TEMPS ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON. WE HAVE 20-30 POPS ON WEDNESDAY WHERE SOME UPPER
VORT ENERGY WILL INTERACT WITH PWATS EXCEEDING 2.0 INCHES. A SLIGHT
COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED THOUGH HIGHS WILL REMAIN IN THE 90S
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH
COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR MVFR/IFR CIGS TOWARD 12Z
MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL PERSIST MONDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD REMAIN 2-4 FT
THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261706
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR MVFR/IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261706
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR MVFR/IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261706
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
106 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MAINLY VFR...ALTHOUGH COULD SEE MVFR VSBYS IN LIGHT FOG AND/OR MVFR/IFR
CIGS TOWARD 12Z MON AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES OFF THE ATLANTIC.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261438
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261438
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1038 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH WITH WEAK LOW PRESSURE
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. NORTHEAST TO EAST FLOW BETWEEN THESE
SYSTEMS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO
MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL ALSO BE A BIT
LOWER THAN NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS. THE BEST
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND MAYBE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WHERE THE BEST MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS
EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE RAIN ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261028
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE.

CONTINUED DRY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR LATE JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO
COULD BRUSH THE MIDDLE GEORGIA COAST/ALTAMAHA SOUND AREA AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE TRANSIENT AND
VERY BRIEF NATURE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY NECESSITATES KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND
LOW 700 HPA THETA VALUES WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
LATER TODAY AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER SHALLOW
CUMULUS FIELD... ROUGHLY IN A REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT-DARIEN CORRIDOR.
STILL EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER-MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAT AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261028
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
628 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO CHANGES WERE MADE WITH THE SUNRISE UPDATE.

CONTINUED DRY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR LATE JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO
COULD BRUSH THE MIDDLE GEORGIA COAST/ALTAMAHA SOUND AREA AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE TRANSIENT AND
VERY BRIEF NATURE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY NECESSITATES KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND
LOW 700 HPA THETA VALUES WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
LATER TODAY AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER SHALLOW
CUMULUS FIELD... ROUGHLY IN A REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT-DARIEN CORRIDOR.
STILL EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER-MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAT AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260712
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED DRY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR LATE JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO
COULD BRUSH THE MIDDLE GEORGIA COAST/ALTAMAHA SOUND AREA AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE TRANSIENT AND
VERY BRIEF NATURE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY NECESSITATES KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND
LOW 700 HPA THETA VALUES WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
LATER TODAY AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER SHALLOW
CUMULUS FIELD... ROUGHLY IN A REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT-DARIEN CORRIDOR.
STILL EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER-MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAT AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260712
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
312 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND
LOW PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THIS WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
CONTINUED DRY TODAY WITH BELOW NORMAL AFTERNOON HUMIDITY LEVELS
FOR LATE JULY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEDGED IN ACROSS THE
EASTERN CAROLINAS AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS OFFSHORE ALONG THE
REMNANTS OF AN OLD STATIONARY FRONT. A VERY BRIEF SHOWER OR TWO
COULD BRUSH THE MIDDLE GEORGIA COAST/ALTAMAHA SOUND AREA AT JUST
ABOUT ANY TIME TODAY WHERE LOW-LEVEL SPEED CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN
ENHANCED IN THE NORTHEAST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BUT THE TRANSIENT AND
VERY BRIEF NATURE OF ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY NECESSITATES KEEPING
POPS BELOW MENTIONABLE THRESHOLDS. STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING AND
LOW 700 HPA THETA VALUES WILL KEEP SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
MOST OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA DRY. DEWPOINTS WILL BEGIN TO CREEP UP
LATER TODAY AS WINDS TURN ONSHORE IN RESPONSE TO HIGH PRESSURE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY SUPPORT ANOTHER SHALLOW
CUMULUS FIELD... ROUGHLY IN A REIDSVILLE-BEAUFORT-DARIEN CORRIDOR.
STILL EXPECT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUN WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE
LOWER-MID 90S INLAND WITH UPPER 80S AT THE COAT AND MID 80S AT THE
BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PASS WELL OFFSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OLD FRONTAL REMNANTS. AS THE LOW PASSES
BY...MID-LEVEL DRY AIR WILL SURGE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN. THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL LIKELY DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH SKIES BECOMING CLEAR.
ONCE AGAIN FAVORED THE COOLER SIDE OF THE 26/00Z GUIDANCE ENVELOP
WITH LOWS FROM THE UPPER 60S/NEAR 70 INLAND TO THE MID 70S AT THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS A LITTLE MORE CLOUD COVER WILL
AFFECT COASTAL PORTIONS OF MCINTOSH AND BRYAN COUNTIES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS A BATCH OF MARINE-BASED STRATOCUMULUS PUSHES ONSHORE.
WILL SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES ELSEWHERE.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN A
RELATIVELY DRY/CAPPED ENVIRONMENT WHICH SEPARATES RESERVOIRS OF
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION.
INDEED...MODEL SOUNDINGS REVEAL A STABLE...UNSEASONABLY DRY AND
CAPPED ENVIRONMENT MONDAY FOLLOWED BY ONLY A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY TUESDAY. THUS...LOWERED POPS BELOW 15 PERCENT
WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...AND LIMITED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE MAINLY INLAND TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE...ASIDE FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT EXPECT TYPICAL TEMPERATURES FOR
LATE JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE REGION COULD REMAIN SITUATED WITHIN A RELATIVELY DRY ENVIRONMENT
BETWEEN POOLS OF DEEPER MOISTURE TO THE NORTH/WEST AND SOUTH/SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THURSDAY...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL POPS AND NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THEN...WE EXPECT TO TRANSITION TO A WETTER PATTERN
WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES AS BROAD LOW PRESSURE
AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPS LATE WEEK THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THE LATEST FORECAST DEPICTS ABOVE-NORMAL POPS FRIDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...ALTHOUGH THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE TIMING
OF THIS TRANSITION. OWING TO THE TIMING UNCERTAINTY AND THE
UNCERTAINTY INHERENT IN MOST CONVECTION FORECASTS...CAPPED MAXIMUM
POPS AT AROUND 50 PERCENT FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT SOME
POINT...HIGHER POPS WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR SOME OR ALL OF THE
FORECAST AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...ANOTHER MODEST NORTHEAST WIND SURGE IS AFFECTING THE
WATERS THIS MORNING WITH WINDS 15-20 KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH ONLY
SLIGHTLY TODAY TO VEER MORE EASTERLY AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO
NUDGE OFFSHORE. WINDS WILL REMAIN NEAR 15 KT WITH SEAS 2-4 FT
NEARSHORE WATERS AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST SKY OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BACK TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE NEARSHORE
WATERS THIS EVENING AS LAND-MARINE THERMAL DIFFERENTIALS TIGHTEN
AND ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES BY TO THE EAST. WIND
SPEEDS LOOK TO BE A BIT WEAKER THAN THE PAST TWO NIGHTS WITH
VELOCITIES AVERAGING 10-15 KT AND SEAS 2-3 FT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS...ENHANCED BY THE
DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION BUT CAPPED AT AROUND 15 KT...WILL
PERSIST UNTIL LATE WEEK. THEN...WINDS COULD TURN TOWARD THE S/SW AS
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER OR CLOSE TO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES BY LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD. SEAS SHOULD
REMAIN 2-4 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD...HIGHEST AT 20 NM AND BEYOND.

RIP CURRENTS...MODEST EAST/NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND EASTERLY GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR
RIP CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES AGAIN TODAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON...PERIGEE AND PERSISTENT ONSHORE WINDS COULD
CONTRIBUTE TO SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING AROUND THE TIMES OF
EVENING HIGH TIDES TUESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. WHILE THE PROBABILITY
FOR A SERIES OF COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EVENTS SHOULD INCREASE AS WE
DRAW CLOSER TO THE JULY 31 FULL MOON/AUG 2 PERIGEE...DUE TO
NORTHEAST WINDS FORECAST BY THE GFS THE EXTRATROPICAL SURGE MODEL
DEPICTS THE EVENING HIGH TIDE EXCEEDING SHALLOW COASTAL FLOODING
LEVELS ALONG THE SC COAST AS EARLY AS TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. WILL
HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR SHALLOW SALT WATER FLOODING WITHIN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS SOME INLAND
AREA PER 26/04Z OBSERVATION. TEMPERATUERS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
FALL WITHIN A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOLID RADIATIONAL
REGIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE MARINE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS SOME INLAND
AREA PER 26/04Z OBSERVATION. TEMPERATUERS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
FALL WITHIN A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOLID RADIATIONAL
REGIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE MARINE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260441
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1241 AM EDT SUN JUL 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS SOME INLAND
AREA PER 26/04Z OBSERVATION. TEMPERATUERS CONTINUE TO STEADILY
FALL WITHIN A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY LAYER AND SOLID RADIATIONAL
REGIME. SHOWER ACTIVITY OFFSHORE WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO THE
GEORGIA OFFSHORE MARINE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING OBSERVATIONS AT QUITE A FEW REPORTING SITES INDICATED
NEAR CALM WINDS...THUS A SOLID DECOUPLING TREND HAS SET IN AWAY
FROM THE COAST. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR A FEW STRATOCUMULUS REACHING FAR SOUTH
COASTAL GEORGIA WITH JUST OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS AROUND THE
REGION. FORECAST OVERNIGHT ON TRACK WITH RECENT UPDATES MAKING
ONLY A FEW INITIALIZATION TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING OBSERVATIONS AT QUITE A FEW REPORTING SITES INDICATED
NEAR CALM WINDS...THUS A SOLID DECOUPLING TREND HAS SET IN AWAY
FROM THE COAST. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR A FEW STRATOCUMULUS REACHING FAR SOUTH
COASTAL GEORGIA WITH JUST OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS AROUND THE
REGION. FORECAST OVERNIGHT ON TRACK WITH RECENT UPDATES MAKING
ONLY A FEW INITIALIZATION TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING OBSERVATIONS AT QUITE A FEW REPORTING SITES INDICATED
NEAR CALM WINDS...THUS A SOLID DECOUPLING TREND HAS SET IN AWAY
FROM THE COAST. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR A FEW STRATOCUMULUS REACHING FAR SOUTH
COASTAL GEORGIA WITH JUST OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS AROUND THE
REGION. FORECAST OVERNIGHT ON TRACK WITH RECENT UPDATES MAKING
ONLY A FEW INITIALIZATION TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260145
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
945 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MID EVENING OBSERVATIONS AT QUITE A FEW REPORTING SITES INDICATED
NEAR CALM WINDS...THUS A SOLID DECOUPLING TREND HAS SET IN AWAY
FROM THE COAST. DEEP LAYERED DRY AIR SHOULD MAINTAIN CLEAR SKIES
OVERNIGHT WITH THE RISK FOR A FEW STRATOCUMULUS REACHING FAR SOUTH
COASTAL GEORGIA WITH JUST OCCASIONAL THIN CIRRUS AROUND THE
REGION. FORECAST OVERNIGHT ON TRACK WITH RECENT UPDATES MAKING
ONLY A FEW INITIALIZATION TWEAKS TO TEMP TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A FAIRLY TIGHT GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN SURFACE
HIGH PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST AND WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRES ALONG
A STALLED FRONT ACROSS FLORIDA. WE INITIALIZED ALL WATERS 15-20 KT
WITH SEAS 3 TO 4 FT WITHIN 20 NM THIS EVENING WITH ONLY A SLOW
DIMINISHING TREND LATE. THERE COULD BE A FEW 6 FT WAVES WELL OFF
THE GEORGIA COAST CLOSE TO THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINTAINED AN
AVERAGE OF 4-5 FT SEAS IN THE 20-60 NM WATERS OVERNIGHT.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 252307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME LATE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GA COAST NEAR SAPELO ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY 15 KT OR
LESS BUT SOME AREAS CLOSER TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AVERAGING UP TO 4 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT
IN THE 20-60 NM GA OFFSHORE WATERS.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 252307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME LATE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GA COAST NEAR SAPELO ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY 15 KT OR
LESS BUT SOME AREAS CLOSER TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AVERAGING UP TO 4 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT
IN THE 20-60 NM GA OFFSHORE WATERS.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 252307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME LATE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GA COAST NEAR SAPELO ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY 15 KT OR
LESS BUT SOME AREAS CLOSER TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AVERAGING UP TO 4 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT
IN THE 20-60 NM GA OFFSHORE WATERS.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 252307
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
707 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANGE ON THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...ONLY MINOR TEMP
ADJUSTMENTS FOR THE MOST PART.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME LATE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GA COAST NEAR SAPELO ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z ECMWF DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT
OVER THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER
REGIME AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE
LATEST FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE
SOLUTIONS...FEATURING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A
BROAD/DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND
MODEL AGREEMENT ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND
BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND
STALLS...PERHAPS ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH IN TURN WILL HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BRISK NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY 15 KT OR
LESS BUT SOME AREAS CLOSER TO 15-20 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
ELEVATED...AVERAGING UP TO 4 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT
IN THE 20-60 NM GA OFFSHORE WATERS.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 252000
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME LATE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GA COAST NEAR SAPELO ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER REGIME
AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST
FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...FEATURING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MODEL AGREEMENT
ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND STALLS...PERHAPS
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IN TURN WILL
HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED...AVERAGING UP TO 4 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT IN THE 20-60 NM GA OFFSHORE WATERS.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 252000
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
400 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REGION WILL REMAIN BETWEEN WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WILL THEN SETTLE OVER THE REGION MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH AND WEST AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SINKS FARTHER SOUTH INTO FLORIDA. MOSTLY CLEAR/CLEAR SKIES
AND GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING WITH LOWS LIKELY NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S INLAND AND LOWER TO MID 70S
NEAR THE COAST. COULD SEE SOME LATE ATLANTIC SHOWERS PUSH TOWARD
THE CENTRAL GA COAST NEAR SAPELO ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...THE AREA REMAINS UNDER DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WITH A DRIER
THAN NORMAL BOUNDARY LAYER EXTENDING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE MIDDLE
90S FAR INLAND THOUGH CLOSER TO THE COAST AN ACTIVE AFTERNOON SEA
BREEZE WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING OUT OF THE MID/UPPER
80S. AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WILL MIX DOWN INTO THE LOW/MID 60S INLAND.
THE DRIER LOW-LEVELS COMBINED WITH FAIRLY STRONG MID-LEVEL CAPPING
SHOULD PRECLUDE MUCH OF ANY CONVECTION. THE EXCEPTION COULD BE
SOMETHING THAT BRIEFLY POPS ALONG THE SEA BREEZE IN THE COASTAL
CORRIDOR. WE MAINTAINED POPS LESS THAN 15 PERCENT WHICH WILL NOT
APPEAR IN MOST OF OUR TEXT-BASED PRODUCTS.

MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS BEGINS A SLOW RETROGRADE
WHICH WILL ALLOW INCREASING SHORTWAVE ENERGY TO DROP IN FROM THE
NNW. MEANWHILE THE DRIER SURFACE HIGH THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA
WILL WEAKEN AS BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS. THIS WILL KEEP
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS CLOSER TO 70 IN MANY SPOTS. ALTHOUGH MONDAY
STILL SHOWS DECENT CAPPING...BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD
SUPPORT ISOLATED AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND TSTMS. SLIGHTLY
BETTER COVERAGE IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY DUE TO BETTER UPPER LEVEL VORT
ENERGY AND WEAKER CAPPING. HIGH TEMPS WILL REACH THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S BOTH DAYS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL TEMPER
VALUES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS PERIOD BEGINS WITH CONSIDERABLE FORECAST UNCERTAINTY. THE
25/00Z GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS DEPICT THE POOL OF ENHANCED MOISTURE
WHICH HAD PASSED THROUGH THE REGION MONDAY-TUESDAY BEING SHUNTED TO
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION AS SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR SPREADS
INTO THE REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST...HOLDING DEEPER TROPICAL
MOISTURE WELL SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION. IF THIS SCENARIO
VERIFIES...EXPECT NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND BELOW NORMAL POPS
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HOWEVER...THE 25/00Z EUROPEAN DEPICTS AN
EARLY TRANSITION TO BROAD LOW PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST BY MID WEEK...PULLING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND SUPPORTING A MUCH WETTER REGIME
AND BELOW-NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THIS PERIOD. THE LATEST
FORECAST SEEKS THE MIDDLE GROUND BETWEEN THESE SOLUTIONS...FEATURING
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL POPS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. THEN...THE GFS ALSO TRANSITIONS TO A BROAD/DEEP LAYERED
CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME OVER THE SOUTHEAST...AND MODEL AGREEMENT
ACTUALLY IMPROVES REGARDING ABOVE-NORMAL POPS AND BELOW-NORMAL
TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. FURTHER...A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT IS PROGGED TO PUSH INTO THIS REGIME AND STALLS...PERHAPS
ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WHICH IN TURN WILL
HOLD DOWN TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR. SOME GUSTS IN THE UPPER TEENS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY AT
KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GA AROUND SUNRISE TUESDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY MAY AFFECT EITHER TERMINAL...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...BRISK EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS TO CONTINUE...MAINLY 15 KT
OR LESS. SEAS WILL BE ELEVATED...AVERAGING UP TO 4 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND UP TO 5 FT IN THE 20-60 NM GA OFFSHORE WATERS.

SYNOPTIC ONSHORE FLOW WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...
ENHANCED BY THE DAILY SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION...AND WINDS/SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FORECAST
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES LATE IN THIS FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS/SEAS
WILL DEPEND ON THE RELATIVE POSITIONS OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
NORTH...A STATIONARY FRONT OVER OR CLOSE TO THE WATERS AND BROAD LOW
PRESSURE WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE REGION.

RIP CURRENTS...INCREASING NORTHEAST WINDS COMBINED WITH A 2 FT
10-12 SECOND GROUND SWELL WILL YIELD A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP
CURRENTS FOR ALL BEACHES TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB





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