Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KCHS 221453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND AIRMASS CHANGE HAS NOW PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REACH SAVANNAH AND WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO HELP SCATTER IT OUT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND LOW 80S FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...AN AREA OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-27 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS STRONG PUNCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS...AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RAISED. INSTEAD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLID
20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES OTHER THAN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH SEAS UP TO
4 OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 5 FT BEYOND INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221453
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1053 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THINKING FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY. COOLER AND DRIER HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY CONTINUES TO BRIDGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS
AND BUILD INTO THE REGION. THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MAIN
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE AND AIRMASS CHANGE HAS NOW PUSHED FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH TO REACH SAVANNAH AND WILL REACH THE ALTAMAHA IN THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. WE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES INTO THE AFTERNOON UNTIL WE CAN GET ENOUGH SURFACE HEATING
TO HELP SCATTER IT OUT. HIGHS WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...WITH HIGHS TOPPING OUT IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AND LOW 80S FOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

TONIGHT...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT KSAV...AN AREA OF MVFR LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS HAS DEVELOPED IN THE
LAST HOUR OR SO. THIS WILL PERSIST AS THE PREVAILING CONDITION
THROUGH ABOUT NOON...THEN WILL BEGIN TO LIFT AND SCATTER OUT
THEREAFTER. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE NORTHEAST SURGE CONTINUES TO WORK ITS WAY DOWN THE COAST
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS MORNING. THE SURGE HAS BEEN A BIT
STRONGER THAN EXPECTED...WITH SOME GUSTS INTO THE 25-27 KT RANGE
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT TIMES. THE STRONGEST WINDS APPEAR
TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE...AND THE GEORGIA WATERS
WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE THIS STRONG PUNCH IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS. IT STILL APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
RELATIVELY SHORT-LIVED...ON THE ORDER OF 2 HOURS...AND NO SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE RAISED. INSTEAD...HAVE GONE WITH A SOLID
20 KT FOR MUCH OF THE DAY ACROSS ALL ZONES OTHER THAN THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. CHOPPY CONDITIONS WILL EXIST WITH SEAS UP TO
4 OUT TO 20 NM...AND UP TO 5 FT BEYOND INTO THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

TONIGHT...THE TIGHTER GRADIENT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS SHOULD WAVER
FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221131
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
731 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST AREA
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY AT KCHS/KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS REACHING 20 KT
WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS SOUTH FROM THE
WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY AROUND DAYBREAK BEFORE DIMINISHING
LATER THIS MORNING TO 15-20 KT. WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST
CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE
BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL
COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS OVER THE INTRA- COASTAL
WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20
KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE
MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220806
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
406 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH TODAY...GRADUALLY
SHIFTING INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT
WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...HIGH MAINLY THIN CLOUDS WERE INCREASING OVER THE REGION
FROM WEST TO EAST ASSOCIATED WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER
JET SEGMENT TRAVERSING GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS. A COLD FRONT WILL
BE PASSING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
WINDS VEERING TO THE NORTH...INITIALLY OVER SE SOUTH CAROLINA PRIOR
TO 6 AM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME INCREASE IN STRATOCU OVER THE
CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA PRIOR TO DAYBREAK. TEMPS WILL BE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S MOST AREAS SHORTLY BEFORE DAWN.

TODAY...HIGH PRES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD EAST AND SOUTH OVER THE FORECAST
AREA IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND OFFSHORE LOW. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE OVER THE MID ATLC REGION TONIGHT...GENERALLY BLANKETING JUST
ABOUT ALL OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

925 MB TEMPS THAT WERE RUNNING IN THE MID 70S YESTERDAY ARE PROGGED
TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S TODAY. THE PUSH OF LOWER LEVEL COOLER
AIR WILL STRENGTHEN THE INVERSION BETWEEN 3 AND 7 KFT. MOST OF THE
00Z MODELS INDICATE A THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE WILL RESIDE UNDER THIS
INVERSION THIS MORNING...MOST NOTABLY ACROSS INLAND AREAS NORTH OF I-
16. THESE MORNING STRATOCU AND HIGH CLOUDS THE FIRST PART OF THE DAY
COULD BE FACTORS THAT COULD KEEP TEMPS FROM REACHING 80 DEGREES IN
SOME AREAS NORTH OF I-16 TODAY. OVERALL WE MADE MINOR CHANGES TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH TEMP TRENDS BUT LOWERED A FEW NORTHERN ZONES DOWN JUST
A TAD AS SUNSHINE THIS AFTERNOON IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS TONIGHT AS WINDS DECOUPLE AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLAND AND LOWS FALL INTO THE MID/UPPER 50S
INLAND UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MANY COASTAL AREAS EAST OF U.S. 17 WILL
FALL TO AROUND 60 WITH MILDER CONDITIONS RIGHT AT THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UNSEASONABLY DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE AREA FROM THE
NORTH SATURDAY WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVERHEAD. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUNDAY INTO MONDAY
THOUGH THE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD. WE WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO INITIATE ANY CONVECTION SATURDAY OR SUNDAY GIVEN SUCH
MEAGER MOISTURE PROFILES AND STRONG CAPPING. WE INCLUDED A SLIGHT
CHANCE POP ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES ON MONDAY WHERE PWATS
INCREASE TO AROUND 1.6" AND AFTERNOON TEMPS RISE INTO THE UPPER 80S.
COVERAGE SHOULD STILL BE QUITE LIMITED DUE TO SUCH WARM MID-LEVELS.
TEMPS WILL SHOW A WARMING TREND DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRONG DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL REMAIN THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE
DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD. INCREASING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUPPORT A WARMING TREND WITH TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONG MID-LEVEL CAP WILL MINIMIZE RAIN
CHANCES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BEGIN TO ERODE
THE RIDGE FROM THE WEST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...POTENTIALLY ALLOWING
FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO MOVE INTO INLAND AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SIGNIFICANT BUT BRIEF SURGE FROM THE NNE IS ON TAP THIS MORNING
AS STRONG SURFACE PRES RISES BUILD OVER THE WATERS IN THE WAKE OF
DEPARTING LOW PRES OFF THE MID ATLC COAST. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH NEAR 20 KT WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS AS THE SURGE BUILDS
SOUTH FROM THE WATERS OFF CHARLESTON SHORTLY JUST BEFORE DAYBREAK.
WE OPTED TO KEEP FORECAST CONDITIONS BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA FOR NOW GIVEN THE BREVITY OF THE BEST SURGING CONDITIONS
ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL COOLER AIR ADVECTION. CHOPPY CONDITIONS
OVER THE INTRA-COASTAL WATERS ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING TO THE
NORTH OF SAVANNAH AND 15-20 KT IN THE CHS HARBOR WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ON THE OUTSIDE DURING THE MAX SURGE AROUND MID MORNING.

THE TIGHTER GRADIENT TONIGHT WILL RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN GEORGIA
WATERS BY TONIGHT AND WITH A BETTER FETCH GEORGIA WATERS...SEAS
SHOULD WAVER FROM 4-5 FT OVER GEORGIA WATERS BEYOND 20 NM.

A LONG EAST-NORTHEAST FETCH WITH SLIGHTLY ENHANCED GRADIENT WILL
EXIST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FROM THE MID-
ATLANTIC REGION. WITH THE PREVAILING ONSHORE FLOW AND WARM LAND
TEMPS WE EXPECT A ROBUST AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOTH DAYS.
ADDITIONALLY...SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD AND WE COULD SEE 6 FT SEAS
OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220526
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
126 AM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
AREA. IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN
WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-
FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED
MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY
FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220239
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1039 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WILL MOVE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND
REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT
MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...33/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220237
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220237
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
LATE THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WITH
A TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA.
THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG
PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER
AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY TO THE
NORTHEAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN WAKE OF THE
FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND SPEEDS UPWARDS OF
8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY. RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. LOWS ARE FORECAST
TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/JAQ/33





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220004
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
804 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE SHIFTING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...WITH A
TRAILING COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST NORTH
CAROLINA AND NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A NOTABLE AIRMASS
CHANGE BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH STRONG PRESSURE RISES...NORTHERLY
WINDS AND SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MASS IN ITS WAKE.

TONIGHT...AS THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO PULL NORTHEAST AWAY FROM
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST...ITS TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MAINLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONT...STRONG PRESSURE RISES WILL MAINTAIN WIND
SPEEDS UPWARDS OF 8-12 MPH WHILE WINDS VEER NORTHERLY.
RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES GIVEN
LIMITED MOISTURE. GIVEN THE UPSTREAM AIR MASS...HAVE ADJUSTED
LOWS DOWNWARD A BIT WITH THE FORECAST NOW REFLECTING LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 60S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY AT KCHS AND KSAV.
A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT CAUSING
WINDS TO VEER NORTHERLY...WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE FRIDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE MOVING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE
FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A
MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL MARINE ZONES VERY LATE
TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT POSSIBLE. SEAS
WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2- 3 FT WITHIN 20
NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES OF
NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211944
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
344 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT MOVES INTO AND SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
REST OF THE AFTERNOON...SKIES ARE TOTALLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED DIURNAL CUMULUS ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY
REGION. EVEN THESE WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
THE LOW LEVELS DRY OUT EVEN FURTHER. DEW POINTS HAVE MIXED OUT
NICELY AND CONTINUE TO FALL INTO THE MID TO LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY TOP OUT IN THE LOW 90S OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

TONIGHT...THE WEAK SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA WILL PULL AWAY TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL FINALLY DRAG ITS
TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
NOTABLE AIRMASS CHANGE AS COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE
NORTH. THE FORECAST IS DRY WITH LOWS FALLING INTO THE LOW 60S
INLAND...RANGING TO THE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WINDS WILL
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT...IN THE 8-12 MPH RANGE...SHIFTING
AROUND BE MORE NORTHERLY WITH TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...LARGE SCALE TROUGH OVER THE EAST BEGINS TO WEAKEN AND LIFT
OUT...GIVING WAY TO QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT LOCALLY. MEANWHILE AT THE
SURFACE WE FIND AN ABNORMALLY LATE SEASON COLD FRONT EXITING TO THE
SE OVER THE ATLANTIC THAT GIVES WAY TO A COOLER AND DRIER AIR MASS
FROM THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. THIS WILL SUPPLY THE FORECAST
REGION WITH CONDITIONS THAT ARE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF LATE
SEPTEMBER OR OCTOBER RATHER THAN LATE MAY. 850 MB TEMPS DROP SOME 8C
FROM TODAY DOWN TO 10-12C...WITH EQUATES TO MAX TEMPS ABOUT 8-12F
LOWER THAN TODAY ALONG WITH MUCH LOWER HUMIDITY. THE CORE OF THE
CANADIAN AIR MASS ARRIVES FRIDAY NIGHT AND AS WINDS DECOUPLED
QUICKLY WITH SUNSET TEMPS WILL PLUNGE WITHIN THE DRY REGIME.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL HIT THE MID AND UPPER 50S INLAND FROM US-
17...MID AND UPPER 60S ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS WITH A LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING WILL PREVAIL ATOP THE
FORECAST DISTRICT...BECOMING MORE AMPLIFIED WITH CLIMBING HEIGHTS THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND. THIS COINCIDES WITH ROBUST SURFACE HIGH
COVERING THE EASTERN SEABOARD SATURDAY THAT PULLS INTO THE ATLANTIC
BY SUNDAY AND EXTENDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA. DRY AND STABLE
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE CAP...AND WITH
PWATS THAT ARE DOWN BETWEEN 1 ANS 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL
THE RISK FOR SHOWERS IS VIRTUALLY NON-EXISTENT. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION WILL TRANSPIRE AS THE HIGH MOVES INTO THE OCEAN AND
TEMPS WILL PEAK A COUPLE DEGREES HIGHER EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR. LOW END RISK OF SHRA/TSRA WITH
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA WILL PUSH OFF TO
THE NORTHEAST AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTHWARD ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHWESTERLY AND EVENTUALLY
NORTHEASTERLY WITH TIME BEHIND THE FRONT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BEHIND THE FRONT AND A MODEST NORTH TO NORTHEAST SURGE WILL
TAKE PLACE. WINDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE ACROSS ALL
MARINE ZONES VERY LATE TONIGHT...WITH SOME OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25
KT POSSIBLE. SEAS WILL INCREASE IN RESPONSE TO THE WINDS BECOMING 2-
3 FT WITHIN 20 NM...AND UP TO 4 FT NEAR 20 NM OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS...AND 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. THE CHANCES
OF NEEDING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAINS LOW.

FRIDAY...AN ANOMALOUS LATE SPRING COLD FRONT WILL PULL FURTHER AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS EARLY IN THE DAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK SHOT OF
COOL ADVECTION AND PRESSURE RISES ALMOST 1 MILLIBAR AN HOUR THROUGH
LATE MORNING. AS A RESULT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL TOP OUT AT 15 OR 20
KT. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO 25 KT FROM ABOUT 09-15Z...BUT
THEIR AREAL COVERAGE AND FREQUENCY IS LOW ENOUGH WHERE WE DO NOT
FEEL AN SCA IS NECESSARY. WINDS WILL TIP AROUND TO THE NE THEREAFTER
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NW ALLOWING FOR SPEEDS TO DROP
A FEW KNOTS. SEAS HOLD FAIRLY STEADY AROUND 2-3 FT NEAR THE COAST
AND 3-5 FT FURTHER OUT THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...A HUGE 1030 MB HIGH WILL BUILD OUT OF
THE OHIO VALLEY EARLY ON...REACHING THE DELMARVA EARLY
SATURDAY...THEN PULLING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS IT ALIGNS ITSELF MAINLY
EAST-WEST BY SUNDAY. THERE IS DECENT PINCHING SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY WHERE EASTERLY WINDS WILL BE AS STRONG AS 15 OR 20 KT AND 3-5
FOOT SEAS. THIS BEARS WATCHING FOR PERHAPS A MARGINAL SCA SHOULD THE
GRADIENT ACTUALLY BECOME TIGHTER.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE
MARINE COMMUNITY. AND ALTHOUGH THERE IS A DECENT GRADIENT...IT
DOESN/T LOOK TO BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GENERATE ANY ADVISORY
CONDITIONS.

MARINERS ARE STRONGLY ADVISED TO BOAT SMART THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

RIP CURRENTS...IT/S A BIG WEEKEND WITH THE OFFICIAL START OF THE
SUMMER SEASON DUE TO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY AND THE BEACH WEATHER
LOOKS GRAND. HOWEVER...A STEADY ONSHORE FLOW AND BUILDING SURF MAY
RESULT IN AN ENHANCED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
PROBABILITIES THOUGH ARE NOT YET SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO ADD MENTION TO
THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND INSTEAD WE WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...33
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...BSH/33





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS BEING LIMITED TO
COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD...CONVECTION IS FIRING CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS BEING LIMITED TO
COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD...CONVECTION IS FIRING CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211751
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
151 PM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...NO CHANGE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DIURNAL CUMULUS BEING LIMITED TO
COLLETON COUNTY AND THE TRI-COUNTY REGION WITH CLEAR SKIES
ELSEWHERE FURTHER SOUTH. STILL A VERY MINUTE CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING...BUT THE OVERALL LIKELIHOOD IS TOO LOW TO
MENTION IN THE FORECAST. INSTEAD...CONVECTION IS FIRING CLOSER TO
THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW ALONG THE NC/SC STATE LINE.
TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED NICELY INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOW
90S...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THEN TURN NORTHWEST AND MORE
NORTHERLY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 211426
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1026 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATE THIS MORNING...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT FORECAST OR
FORECAST REASONING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVE ALOFT QUICKLY MOVING THROUGH IN THE FAST WEST FLOW WITH
MUCH DRIER AIR IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS NOW PUSHING INTO THE SOUTH
CAROLINA UPSTATE AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. MEANWHILE...SURFACE OBS SHOW
THE CENTER OF A SURFACE LOW SITTING UP AROUND THE SPARTANBURG AREA
WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE ACROSS MOST OF THE CAROLINAS. THE SURFACE
LOW WILL PUSH EASTWARD TODAY AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE BEST FOCUSING
OF FORCING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TAKE PLACE ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA. THERE IS A SMALL WINDOW FOR
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CLOSER TO THE SANTEE
RIVER...BASICALLY FROM AROUND NOW THROUGH ABOUT 1 PM.
THEREAFTER...SOUNDINGS SHOW THE COLUMN DRYING RAPIDLY WITH WARMING
TEMPERATURES AROUND 800 MB. THE FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND THIS IS
SUPPORTED BY MODEL DATA OUTPUT. THE MAIN STORY WILL BE THE WARM
TEMPERATURES. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE WESTERLY AND KEEP THE SEA
BREEZE PINNED ALONG THE COAST. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT
HIGHS AROUND 95/96 THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH...HIGHS HAVE BEEN
WARMED A DEGREE OR TWO AND SOLIDLY INTO THE MID 90S EVERYWHERE.
RECORD HIGHS ARE IN THE 98/99 DEGREE RANGE SO IT DOES NOT APPEAR
WE WILL THREATEN THOSE VALUES.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...BSH
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE HOLD...
MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS. PWATS WILL BE FALLING BELOW 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST AND THIS
SPELLS SOARING TEMPS INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP MORE SOLIDLY TO THE MID
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RECORDS AT KCHS/KCHL/KSAV CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES...SO RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY UNLIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS
UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING
DEVELOPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...SURFACE LOW PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY DAYBREAK. A
BAND OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 850MB-500MB RH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LIFT OR MID LEVEL OMEGA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD CROP UP
ACROSS THE REGION BUT KEEPING POPS SILENT UNTIL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SOMETHING DIFFERENT. MOST AREAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DAWN
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE HOLD...
MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS. PWATS WILL BE FALLING BELOW 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST AND THIS
SPELLS SOARING TEMPS INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP MORE SOLIDLY TO THE MID
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RECORDS AT KCHS/KCHL/KSAV CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES...SO RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY UNLIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210816
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
416 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CAROLINAS TODAY WILL MOVE
OFFSHORE TONIGHT DRAGGING A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...SURFACE LOW PRES ANALYZED ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA
FOOTHILLS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SE TO NEAR CHARLOTTE BY DAYBREAK. A
BAND OF SOMEWHAT HIGHER 850MB-500MB RH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT INTO
THE FORECAST AREA BY DAWN BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT IN THE WAY OF
UPPER LIFT OR MID LEVEL OMEGA. ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD CROP UP
ACROSS THE REGION BUT KEEPING POPS SILENT UNTIL RADAR TRENDS SHOW
SOMETHING DIFFERENT. MOST AREAS CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH DAWN
READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH INTO SE NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WHILE A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO EXIT
INTO EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA DURING THE DAY. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND
SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN
BEGINNING LATE MORNING WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPING AND
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY SPOTTY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE HOLD...
MAINLY PRIOR TO 15Z. WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST BUT CERTAINLY CANNOT
RULE OUT BRIEF SHOWERS THROUGH MID MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AS THE MIXED
LAYER DEEPENS. PWATS WILL BE FALLING BELOW 1.2 INCHES AND SURFACE
DEW POINTS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE LOWER/MID 60S AND WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER 50S BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. THE OFFSHORE
FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PIN THE SEA BREEZE TO THE COAST AND THIS
SPELLS SOARING TEMPS INTO THE 90S ONCE AGAIN. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY
OF CUMULUS AROUND THIS AFTERNOON BUT THERE COULD BE A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS PASSING THROUGH. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP MORE SOLIDLY TO THE MID
90S ALONG AND EAST OF I-95. RECORDS AT KCHS/KCHL/KSAV CLOSER TO
100 DEGREES...SO RECORD HIGH TEMPS TODAY UNLIKELY.

OVERNIGHT...THE DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. LOWS WILL REACH CLOSE TO 60 DEGREES WELL
INLAND AND THE MID 60S ALONG THE U.S. 17 CORRIDOR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...AT DAYBREAK THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
NORTH/NORTHEAST FLOW WILL BRING COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR INTO THE
AREA. A PRONOUNCED CAP NOTED IN MODEL SOUNDINGS AND PWATS UNDER AN
INCH WILL KEEP A DRY FORECAST IN TACT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...RANGING FROM THE UPPER
70S/AROUND 80 IN THE NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MID 80S SOUTH. FRIDAY
NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER
50S/LOW 60S AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...WITH UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE
SUBSIDENCE AND LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL KEEP POPS
CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE CLOSER TO NORMAL
WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW/MID 80S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH MID WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WILL BE QUITE LIMITED AS STRONG
UPPER RIDGE HOLDS FIRM OVER THE SOUTHEAST...HOWEVER AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE TOWARDS THE MIDDLE OF WEEK MAY ALLOW SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION TO FIRE IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. FORECAST
WILL FEATURE NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
W TO SW SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL BACK TO PURE SW THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SPEEDS 15 KT OR LESS. IT SHOULD BECOME GUSTY ALONG A PINNED
RESULTANT SEA BREEZE IN COASTAL CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON
AND WE MENTIONED SOME GUSTS TO NEAR 20 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE
CHARLESTON HARBOR. COOLER AND DRIER AIR MOVING OVER THE WATERS
LATER TONIGHT WILL ENHANCE THE MEAN LOW LEVEL MIXING/JETTING
ENVIRONMENT AND GUIDANCE WAS NOW PAINTING 20 KT JETTING FLOW AT
GRAYS REEF AS WINDS VEER AHEAD OF A LATE NIGHT WIND SHIFT TO THE
NORTH. WE TRENDED A BIT HIGH ON WIND SPEEDS LATER TONIGHT TO
ACCOUNT FOR LATEST TRENDS. SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY IN THE 2 TO
3 FT RANGE...INCREASING TO 3 TO 4 FT BEYOND 10-15 NM OFF THE COAST
LATE.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE WATERS WILL BE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
DEPARTING COLD FRONT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT DAYBREAK FRIDAY. NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15-20 KT WILL
QUICKLY SUBSIDE IN THE MORNING AS THE HIGH PUSHES THE FRONT FURTHER
AWAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND...VEERING WINDS TO THE EAST. A PINCHED PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE OUTER GA WATERS...HOWEVER CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS
WILL BE 15 KT OR LESS WITH SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRES OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
NORTH OF I-16 OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SWAY SILENT POPS AS
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
ALONG THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRES OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
NORTH OF I-16 OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SWAY SILENT POPS AS
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
ALONG THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210529
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 AM EDT THU MAY 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
OVERNIGHT...EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS LOW PRES OVER
THE WESTERN CAROLINAS WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTH OVER COASTAL
SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS
THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE
NORTH OF I-16 OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ENOUGH TO SWAY SILENT POPS AS
MOST WILL REMAIN DRY. SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY EXCEPT
ALONG THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY THIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS DEEPER MIXING DEVELOPS

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY
STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN GENERAL...SOUTHERLY
FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE SEAS ARE NO HIGHER
THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210240
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1040 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...LATE-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF LATE EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORT WAVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS DEEP MIXING
OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210240
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1040 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...LATE-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF LATE EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORT WAVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS DEEP MIXING
OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210240
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1040 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...LATE-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE
MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
IS SLOWLY SHIFTING ACROSS THE AREA ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A SOMEWHAT FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HAS
RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA AND
ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AS OF LATE EVENING. THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD PUSH OFFSHORE WITH THE SHORT WAVE...BRINGING AN
END TO THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION OVER THE AREA.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE
LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EAST OF THE
TERMINALS BY MIDNIGHT...BRINGING AN END TO THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
CONVECTIVE IMPACTS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY AS DEEP MIXING
OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
801 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM
BRIEFLY BECOMING STRONG WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY PARTS OF
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGHLATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT KSAV THROUGH
02Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL AMEND AS TRENDS BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED. IF ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEY SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
801 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM
BRIEFLY BECOMING STRONG WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY PARTS OF
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGHLATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT KSAV THROUGH
02Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL AMEND AS TRENDS BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED. IF ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEY SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
801 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM
BRIEFLY BECOMING STRONG WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY PARTS OF
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGHLATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT KSAV THROUGH
02Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL AMEND AS TRENDS BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED. IF ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEY SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 210001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
801 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...MID-EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A NEARLY STATIONARY
FRONT SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. IN THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...A SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE IS SHIFTING
ACROSS THE MIDLANDS ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A SOMEWHAT
FLATTENED RIDGE TO THE SOUTH.

THE APPROACHING SHORT WAVE COMBINED WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS WILL MAINTAIN ISOLATED TO PERHAPS EVEN SCATTERED
CONVECTION THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING. IT APPEARS THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER HAS ENDED...ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A STORM
BRIEFLY BECOMING STRONG WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE.

THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD COME TO AN END BY LATE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER WILL MAINTAIN A
20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR MAINLY PARTS OF
THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH STRENGTHENS AND ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSES
THROUGHLATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S
INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW THAT ANY WILL IMPACT
THE TERMINALS. HAVE ONLY INCLUDED VICINITY SHOWERS AT KSAV THROUGH
02Z BASED ON LATEST RADAR TRENDS...AND WILL AMEND AS TRENDS BECOME
BETTER ESTABLISHED. IF ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WERE TO
OCCUR...THEY SHOULD ONLY BE BRIEF. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY. GUSTY
WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON THURSDAY
AS DEEP MIXING OCCURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 202034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER PEE DEE REGION.
ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A FLATTENED MID LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE TRI-COUNTY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE/MULTICELL TYPE CONVECTION INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND/OR
DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH WHILE ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV. CHANCES OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN GENERALLY WEAKEN
OR DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 202034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER PEE DEE REGION.
ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A FLATTENED MID LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE TRI-COUNTY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE/MULTICELL TYPE CONVECTION INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND/OR
DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH WHILE ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV. CHANCES OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN GENERALLY WEAKEN
OR DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 202034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER PEE DEE REGION.
ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A FLATTENED MID LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE TRI-COUNTY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE/MULTICELL TYPE CONVECTION INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND/OR
DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH WHILE ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV. CHANCES OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN GENERALLY WEAKEN
OR DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 202034
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY DEVELOP NORTH OF THE AREA
TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS IT SITS OVER THE ATLANTIC. A WEAK COLD FRONT
MAY APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND LOWER PEE DEE REGION.
ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES CONTINUE TO ROUND THE
NORTHERN FRINGE OF A FLATTENED MID LVL RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE
PATTERN WILL FAVOR EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS DEEP
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE TRI-COUNTY.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 95
IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE/MULTICELL TYPE CONVECTION INTO
EARLY EVENING HOURS WITH A FEW THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN AND/OR
DISSIPATE FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS OF SUNSET DUE TO THE
LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. HOWEVER...A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AS
A SFC LOW SLOWLY STRENGTHENS TO OUR NORTH WHILE ANOTHER H5
SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATE. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN THE UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOWER 70S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX ASSOCIATED
WITH A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. AT THE SURFACE...THE CENTER OF THE AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE SOMEWHERE NEAR THE CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA/SOUTH
CAROLINA STATE LINE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH INTO EASTERN NORTH
CAROLINA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODEL TIME HEIGHTS AND SOUNDINGS
SHOW PRONOUNCED DRYING THROUGH THE COLUMN BEGINNING LATE MORNING AND
THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY WITH A SUBSIDENCE INVERSION SHOWING UP
IN THE AFTERNOON AS WELL. IT APPEARS IF THERE IS GOING TO BE ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IT WILL BE BEFORE THESE FEATURES TAKE
HOLD...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. MODELS ARE QUITE DRY...AND THE
CONSENSUS FAVORS A DRY FORECAST. HAVE HELD ONTO A SMALL AREA OF
SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MORNING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...THEN DRY
EVERYWHERE IN THE AFTERNOON. ANOTHER LIMITING FACTOR TO POPS WILL BE
THE PREVAILING WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW...WHICH WILL ALSO HELP RESULT
IN A RATHER WARM DAY WITH NICE MIXING OUT OF DEW POINTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. IT WILL BE ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS REACHING THE LOW
90S IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. OVERNIGHT...THE
DRYING WILL CONTINUE AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN. LOWS WILL REACH
THE LOW 60S WELL INLAND...RANGING TOT HE MID/UPPER 60S ALONG THE
COAST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...A LARGE AREA OF NVA ALOFT WILL OVERSPREAD
THE AREA AS RIDGING BUILDS UP THE CENTRAL CONUS AND INTO THE UPPER
MIDWEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL ROTATE NORTH OF THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AND TOWARD EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.
FRIDAY WILL BE DRY AND COOLER...WITH A PRONOUNCED SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IN AREA SOUNDINGS. SATURDAY LOOKS SIMILAR...THOUGH THERE
ARE SOME HINTS OF CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA IN THE AFTERNOON.
THE FORECAST IS DRY AND HIGHS EACH DAY WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND GUSTY
WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV. CHANCES OF
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE
EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT NEARSHORE
COASTAL WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...THEN GENERALLY WEAKEN
OR DISSIPATE AROUND SUNSET. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS TONIGHT AS AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS INLAND AND NORTH OF THE WATERS. IN
GENERAL...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 10-15 KTS WHILE
SEAS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA
WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF INLAND LOW PRESSURE WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST AND OFF THE COAST THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THEREAFTER FROM THE NORTH.
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO NORTH AND NORTHEAST AS THE HIGH BUILDS
IN ON FRIDAY AND WILL SURGE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE. AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WINDS WILL BECOME MORE
EASTERLY WITH TIME...WITH SOME PERIODS OF STRONGER FLOW PERHAPS UP
TO 15-20 KT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED...THOUGH
THEY CAN/T BE TOTALLY RULED OUT EITHER. THIS GENERAL EAST TO
SOUTHEAST FLOW REGIME WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SITS TO THE EAST. SEAS WILL INCREASE WITH THE ASSOCIATED
WINDS...REACHING AS HIGH AS 4 FT IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS AT
TIMES...UP TO 5 FT OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A WARM DAY WILL
REMAIN ON TAP OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV.
CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A WARM DAY WILL
REMAIN ON TAP OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV.
CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A WARM DAY WILL
REMAIN ON TAP OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV.
CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201800
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
200 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
DOWNBURSTS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL. A WARM DAY WILL
REMAIN ON TAP OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT EITHER TERMINAL
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...PRODUCING PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS...HEAVY
RAINFALL AND LOWER VSBYS. TEMPO GROUPS INCLUDING THUNDER AND
GUSTY WINDS HAVE BEEN ADDED UNTIL 21Z AT CHS AND 20Z AT SAV.
CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS SHOULD DECREASE AT BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE EVENING AS ACTIVITY WEAKENS/DIMINISHES WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201723
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS AND PWATS NEAR 2.0
INCHES. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT THE CHS
TERMINAL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201723
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS AND PWATS NEAR 2.0
INCHES. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT THE CHS
TERMINAL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201723
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 PM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
THIS AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO
THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR DEEPENING
MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA AND SOUTH ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. EXPECT PULSE TYPE CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHEST COVERAGE DURING
PEAK DIURNAL HEATING. LOWER POPS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST OVER
INLAND AREAS IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF A
WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME
MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW
THIS AFTERNOON GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND POOR MID LVL LAPSE
RATES. HOWEVER...MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS AND PWATS NEAR 2.0
INCHES. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE
LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT THE CHS
TERMINAL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
WELL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS AS A WEAK
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE
OVERALL PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR
BELOW 10-15 KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SEAS WILL BE NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE
GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1107 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS
AND LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEPENING MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

A CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON...BUT STRONG SFC HEATING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CAP...ALLOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER
THE TRI-COUNTY AREA FIRST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PIN THE SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER POPS OVER INLAND GEORGIA
WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MOST ACTIVITY FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS AND PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT THE CHS
TERMINAL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR BELOW 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201507
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1107 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK COLD FRONT SITUATED OVER THE MIDLANDS
AND LOWER PEE DEE REGION. ALOFT...A SERIES OF SUBTLE H5 SHORTWAVES
WILL CONTINUE TO ROUND THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF A FLATTENED MID LVL
RIDGE TO OUR SOUTH. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR DEEPENING MOISTURE OVER
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

A CAPPING INVERSION NOTED ON THE 12Z CHS SOUNDING WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH NOON...BUT STRONG SFC HEATING
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THE CAP...ALLOWING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE AREA BY EARLY
AFTERNOON. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES MOST ACTIVITY INITIATING OVER
THE TRI-COUNTY AREA FIRST WHERE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS GREATEST
BETWEEN A DEVELOPING SEABREEZE AND THE FRONT TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST.
FURTHER SOUTH...THE PREVAILING FLOW WILL BE MORE WESTERLY...WHICH
WILL LIKELY PIN THE SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.
FOR THIS REASON...HAVE MAINTAINED LOWER POPS OVER INLAND GEORGIA
WHERE THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
STRONGER SFC HEATING AND SOME MIXING OUT OF LOW LVL MOISTURE.
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE SHOULD BE GREATEST DURING PEAK
DIURNAL HEATING MID/LATE AFTERNOON...WITH MOST ACTIVITY FOCUSED
OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND ALONG THE GEORGIA COASTLINE.
SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR
ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...MULTI-CELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE
LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN WEAK WIND FIELDS AND PWATS
NEAR 2.0 INCHES. A WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP...WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH
12Z THURSDAY. HOWEVER...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS.
BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD OCCUR AT THE CHS
TERMINAL...WHERE A TEMPO GROUP WILL BE MAINTAINED IN THE FORECAST.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL WATERS TODAY AS A WEAK AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS INLAND ALONG A STALLING FRONT. THE OVERALL
PATTERN WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY FLOW THAT REMAINS AT OR BELOW 10-15
KTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD...BUT INLAND THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALTER NEARSHORE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SEAS WILL BE
NO HIGHER THAN 2-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OUT TRANQUIL BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON THE KCLX RADAR WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS SOME
PARTS OF SE GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A
VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS
A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE SE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF I-16 EAST TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES AS BOUNDARY
LAYER... 925 MB...850 MB PROGS ALL POINT TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AS PWATS POOL NEAR 2 INCHES DURING THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING
JUST AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CSRA.

A STRONG EARLY MORNING CAP AROUND 4C IS FORECAST TO BREAK INITIALLY
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO TANGLE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA PERHAPS
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AS
TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. ACROSS SE GEORGIA...
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SB CAPES ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CHANCES WEST
TOWARD CLAXTON...HINESVILLE AND REIDSVILLE.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES DURING THE DAY WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. OUR THINKING IS WHILE TSTMS PULSE AND
TRANSLATE INTO MULTICELL...THE SEVERE RISK IS MAINLY LOW GIVEN
THE WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL OR
SPORADIC LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS AND SOME PROPENSITY TO BACK-BUILD SOME OF TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER. WE FOCUSED LIKELY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN A TRIANGLE FROM ALLENDALE TO JUST NORTH OF
SAVANNAH...NORTHEAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF U.S. HIGHWAY 17.

IN SE GEORGIA TO S OF I-16...DCAPES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUR ALTAMAHA ZONES IF STORMS WERE TO MULTICELL.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP...WE RAISED SOME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BETWEEN SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON WEST TO THE CSRA PRIOR TO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. 06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AROUND KCHS AND TEMPO THUNDER WAS MAINTAINED THERE.
AT KSAV...WILL WILL OPT TO WAIT FOR AFTER THE MORNING SOUNDING
BEFORE COMMITTING TO PREVAILING CONVECTION OR EVEN VCTS GIVEN
A SLIGHTLY PINNED SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND TODAY ALONG A
STALLING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND IN MOST
CASES...LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. INLAND TSTMS COULD ALTER
THESE NEAR SHORE WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY 2 FT WITH A 3 FT SEAS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 201125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OUT TRANQUIL BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON THE KCLX RADAR WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS SOME
PARTS OF SE GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A
VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS
A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE SE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF I-16 EAST TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES AS BOUNDARY
LAYER... 925 MB...850 MB PROGS ALL POINT TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AS PWATS POOL NEAR 2 INCHES DURING THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING
JUST AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CSRA.

A STRONG EARLY MORNING CAP AROUND 4C IS FORECAST TO BREAK INITIALLY
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO TANGLE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA PERHAPS
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AS
TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. ACROSS SE GEORGIA...
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SB CAPES ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CHANCES WEST
TOWARD CLAXTON...HINESVILLE AND REIDSVILLE.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES DURING THE DAY WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. OUR THINKING IS WHILE TSTMS PULSE AND
TRANSLATE INTO MULTICELL...THE SEVERE RISK IS MAINLY LOW GIVEN
THE WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL OR
SPORADIC LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS AND SOME PROPENSITY TO BACK-BUILD SOME OF TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER. WE FOCUSED LIKELY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN A TRIANGLE FROM ALLENDALE TO JUST NORTH OF
SAVANNAH...NORTHEAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF U.S. HIGHWAY 17.

IN SE GEORGIA TO S OF I-16...DCAPES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUR ALTAMAHA ZONES IF STORMS WERE TO MULTICELL.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP...WE RAISED SOME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BETWEEN SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON WEST TO THE CSRA PRIOR TO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. 06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AROUND KCHS AND TEMPO THUNDER WAS MAINTAINED THERE.
AT KSAV...WILL WILL OPT TO WAIT FOR AFTER THE MORNING SOUNDING
BEFORE COMMITTING TO PREVAILING CONVECTION OR EVEN VCTS GIVEN
A SLIGHTLY PINNED SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND TODAY ALONG A
STALLING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND IN MOST
CASES...LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. INLAND TSTMS COULD ALTER
THESE NEAR SHORE WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY 2 FT WITH A 3 FT SEAS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 201125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY WILL START OUT TRANQUIL BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE
ACTIVE AFTERNOON ON THE KCLX RADAR WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF
CONVECTIVE RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS SOME
PARTS OF SE GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A
VERY GOOD ENVIRONMENT FOR BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS
A SURFACE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE SE MIDLANDS AND
LOWER PEE DEE REGIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO THE
NORTH OF I-16 EAST TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES AS BOUNDARY
LAYER... 925 MB...850 MB PROGS ALL POINT TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE
AS PWATS POOL NEAR 2 INCHES DURING THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING
JUST AFTER EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CSRA.

A STRONG EARLY MORNING CAP AROUND 4C IS FORECAST TO BREAK INITIALLY
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO TANGLE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA PERHAPS
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AS
TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. ACROSS SE GEORGIA...
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SB CAPES ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CHANCES WEST
TOWARD CLAXTON...HINESVILLE AND REIDSVILLE.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES DURING THE DAY WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. OUR THINKING IS WHILE TSTMS PULSE AND
TRANSLATE INTO MULTICELL...THE SEVERE RISK IS MAINLY LOW GIVEN
THE WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL OR
SPORADIC LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS AND SOME PROPENSITY TO BACK-BUILD SOME OF TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER. WE FOCUSED LIKELY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN A TRIANGLE FROM ALLENDALE TO JUST NORTH OF
SAVANNAH...NORTHEAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF U.S. HIGHWAY 17.

IN SE GEORGIA TO S OF I-16...DCAPES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUR ALTAMAHA ZONES IF STORMS WERE TO MULTICELL.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP...WE RAISED SOME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BETWEEN SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON WEST TO THE CSRA PRIOR TO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. 06Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE BEST CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE AROUND KCHS AND TEMPO THUNDER WAS MAINTAINED THERE.
AT KSAV...WILL WILL OPT TO WAIT FOR AFTER THE MORNING SOUNDING
BEFORE COMMITTING TO PREVAILING CONVECTION OR EVEN VCTS GIVEN
A SLIGHTLY PINNED SEA BREEZE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND TODAY ALONG A
STALLING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND IN MOST
CASES...LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. INLAND TSTMS COULD ALTER
THESE NEAR SHORE WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY 2 FT WITH A 3 FT SEAS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200815
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ALONG A STALLED FRONT ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY...AND EVENTUALLY PUSH OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...A WEAK SHORT WAVE RIDGE HAS SETTLED OVER THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT AND CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY THROUGH 6 AM.
SKIES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LIGHT TO NEAR
CALM WINDS. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHY FOG IN A FEW SPOTS BUT NOT
EXPECTING ANY VSBY PROBLEMS GIVEN THE WARM SYNOPTIC SCENARIO AND
LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

TODAY WILL START OUT TRANQUIL BUT WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE ACTIVE
AFTERNOON ON THE KCLX RADAR WITH INCREASING COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE
RAINS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AND PERHAPS SOME PARTS OF SE
GEORGIA LATER IN THE DAY. THE SYNOPTIC SETUP FAVORS A VERY GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR BROAD LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE AS A SURFACE
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT HANGS UP ALONG THE SE MIDLANDS AND LOWER PEE
DEE REGIONS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO THE NORTH OF
I-16 EAST TO THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL ZONES AS BOUNDARY LAYER...
925 MB...850 MB PROGS ALL POINT TO INCREASING CONVERGENCE AS PWATS
POOL NEAR 2 INCHES DURING THE PEAK OF DIURNAL HEATING JUST AFTER
EARLY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHES
FROM CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CSRA.

A STRONG EARLY MORNING CAP AROUND 4C IS FORECAST TO BREAK INITIALLY
WHERE THE SEA BREEZE BEGINS TO TANGLE WITH THE VARIOUS BOUNDARIES
ALONG THE WEAK SURFACE FRONTAL TROUGH IN SE SOUTH CAROLINA PERHAPS
SHORTLY BEFORE 18Z. COVERAGE SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AS
TO THE NORTH OF I-16 AS THE AFTERNOON GOES ON. ACROSS SE GEORGIA...
BETTER CONVERGENCE AND SB CAPES ARE INITIALLY EXPECTED ALONG THE
SEA BREEZE THROUGH MID AFTERNOON WITH DECREASING CHANCES WEST
TOWARD CLAXTON...HINESVILLE AND REIDSVILLE.

FORECAST CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA
TODAY ARE FAIRLY UNIMPRESSIVE WITH WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
INCREASING DEEP MOISTURE PROFILES DURING THE DAY WITH DOWNDRAFT
CAPES BELOW 500 J/KG. OUR THINKING IS WHILE TSTMS PULSE AND
TRANSLATE INTO MULTICELL...THE SEVERE RISK IS MAINLY LOW GIVEN
THE WEAK WIND FIELDS BUT CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SMALL HAIL OR
SPORADIC LOCALIZED WET MICROBURSTS IN STRONGER STORMS. WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS AND SOME PROPENSITY TO BACK-BUILD SOME OF TSTMS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS AND STANDING WATER. WE FOCUSED LIKELY
POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN A TRIANGLE FROM ALLENDALE TO JUST NORTH OF
SAVANNAH...NORTHEAST TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND W OF U.S. HIGHWAY 17.

IN SE GEORGIA TO S OF I-16...DCAPES ARE MUCH HIGHER AND A FEW HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS HINT THAT SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS ALONG OUR ALTAMAHA ZONES IF STORMS WERE TO MULTICELL.
ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP...WE RAISED SOME MAX TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
BETWEEN SAVANNAH AND CHARLESTON WEST TO THE CSRA PRIOR TO THE
SHOWERS AND STORMS.

TONIGHT...THERE IS STILL A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE REGION TONIGHT BUT WE CONTINUED TO TREND DOWNWARD TO 10-20
POPS OVERNIGHT PER FORECAST PERSISTENCE. NO CHANGES TO LOWS IN
THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
CAROLINAS AT DAYBREAK. ALOFT...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
VORT MAX WILL BE SHIFTING EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC EARLY IN THE DAY.
CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW AND THE SEA BREEZE WILL KICK OFF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCES CLOSER TO THE COAST. SHEAR LESS THAN 20
KT...MARGINAL CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND UNIMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL KEEP SEVERE THREAT LIMITED...HOWEVER BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS GIVEN DCAPE VALUES OF AROUND 500-750
J/KG...STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER AIR.
DEEP WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES TO THE LOW 90S
MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE
MID 80S. ANY LINGERING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT OFF THE COAST
IN THE EVENING AS A MORE POTENT VORT MAX DIVES ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC AND SENDS THE SURFACE LOW/FRONT INTO THE WATERS. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY AND THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE ALOFT...SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL GRADUALLY BUILD OVER THE
SOUTHEAST. LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE AND DECREASING MOISTURE WILL KEEP
POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. BUILDING HEIGHTS AND CLEARING SKIES
WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE
NEAR NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S NORTHWEST...TO UPPER 60S SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC WILL PERSIST
THROUGH MID WEEK WHILE STRONG UPPER RIDGE SITS OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE PRETTY
CAPPED THROUGH EARLY WEEK WITH POPS LIMITED TO 15 PERCENT OR LESS.
AFTERNOON RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE SEA BREEZE WILL RETURN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS MOISTURE LEVELS INCREASE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AT KCHS AND WILL TEMPO SOME THUNDER IN THERE. AT KSAV...WILL WILL
OPT TO WAIT FOR LATER GUIDANCE AND THE MORNING SOUNDING BEFORE
COMMITTING TO PREVAILING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP INLAND TODAY ALONG A
STALLING COLD FRONT. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW WILL FAVOR A SOUTHERLY
COMPONENT THROUGH TONIGHT BUT SPEEDS LESS THAN 15 KT AND IN MOST
CASES...LESS THAN 10 KT THROUGH TONIGHT. INLAND TSTMS COULD ALTER
THESE NEAR SHORE WIND FIELDS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
SEAS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY 2 FT WITH A 3 FT SEAS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM WATERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
INLAND ON THURSDAY. THE LOW AND ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL PUSH EAST
ACROSS THE WATERS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ITS
WAKE. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL
RESULT IN A BRIEF INCREASE IN NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CHARLESTON COUNTY WATERS. AT THIS
TIME...CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THE
SURFACE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AS IT SHIFTS INTO THE ATLANTIC
ON SATURDAY...RESULTING IN ANOTHER SURGE IN WINDS AND SEAS LATE
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. RATHER BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. EAST/SOUTHEAST WINDS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN 15 KT OR LESS. SEAS 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATE.

WE HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...
NOT TO TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AT KCHS AND WILL TEMPO SOME THUNDER IN THERE. AT KSAV...WILL WILL
OPT TO WAIT FOR LATER GUIDANCE AND THE MORNING SOUNDING BEFORE
COMMITTING TO PREVAILING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTHWEST WIND GRADUALLY VEER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3
TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200457
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1257 AM EDT WED MAY 20 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATE.

WE HAVE REMOVED ALL MENTION OF RESIDUAL CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...
NOT TO TOTALLY RULE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER BUT DRY WEATHER SHOULD
PREVAIL. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT
WHERE RAINFALL OCCURRED EARLIER. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST. WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS. 00Z GUIDANCE INDICATES BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE
INITIATION IN A POCKET OF DEEPER MOISTURE AND MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
AT KCHS AND WILL TEMPO SOME THUNDER IN THERE. AT KSAV...WILL WILL
OPT TO WAIT FOR LATER GUIDANCE AND THE MORNING SOUNDING BEFORE
COMMITTING TO PREVAILING CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTHWEST WIND GRADUALLY VEER DURING THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 10 TO 15
KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3
TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 200228
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURRED EARLIER. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTHWEST WIND GRADUALLY VEER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 200228
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1028 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA LATE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE GENERALLY DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DIURNAL HEATING...HOWEVER COULD STILL SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
WHERE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR THROUGH ABOUT MIDNIGHT. THERE
WILL BE A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE RAINFALL
OCCURRED EARLIER. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND DURATION IS TOO LOW
TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS
WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH
TERMINALS...BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTHWEST WIND GRADUALLY VEER
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 192358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA
LATE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND WITHIN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MID-
EVENING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
LOW GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE
RAINFALL IS EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...LOW
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. BRIEF/TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KSAV WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT
01-02Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 192358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA
LATE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND WITHIN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MID-
EVENING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
LOW GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE
RAINFALL IS EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...LOW
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. BRIEF/TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KSAV WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT
01-02Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 192358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA
LATE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND WITHIN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MID-
EVENING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
LOW GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE
RAINFALL IS EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...LOW
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. BRIEF/TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KSAV WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT
01-02Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 192358
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
758 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA
LATE.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REMAINED LIMITED IN COVERAGE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE AND WITHIN BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. COVERAGE HAS BEEN AND
SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED FOR THE MOST PART THROUGH MID-
EVENING...EXCEPT PERHAPS SCATTERED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH COASTAL
GEORGIA. AT THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN
LOW GIVEN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
INTERACT WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL
HEATING...EXPECT LINGERING CONVECTION TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS
EVENING.

THERE WILL ALSO A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT WHERE
RAINFALL IS EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN COVERAGE AND
DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME. WARM
AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN GENERAL...LOW
TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND KSAV
THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. BRIEF/TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE AT KSAV WITHIN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT
01-02Z. ADDITIONAL SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND COULD IMPACT BOTH TERMINALS...BUT WILL
NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST UNTIL CONFIDENCE IN
TIMING/COVERAGE INCREASES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB/JAQ
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...JAQ/BSH
MARINE...DPB/BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 191959
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA
LATE. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY
TO OCCUR IN THE TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE ENHANCING UPLIFT ALONG A SEABREEZE. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
EVENING HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE EVENTUALLY PUSHES INLAND LATE. AT
THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE
FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WILL ALSO A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAINFALL IS EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE HIGHEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 191959
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AND STALL NEAR
THE AREA TONIGHT. A BROAD AND WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN
DEVELOP ALONG THE LINGERING FRONT ON WEDNESDAY...AND WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY...SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST...THEN STALLS NEAR THE AREA
LATE. A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
INTO EARLY TONIGHT AS WEAK H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ROUNDS THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF A MID LVL RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTH. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY
TO OCCUR IN THE TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE ENHANCING UPLIFT ALONG A SEABREEZE. WE
COULD ALSO SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION DRIFT INTO SOUTHERN AREAS ALONG
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
EVENING HOURS AS THE SEABREEZE EVENTUALLY PUSHES INLAND LATE. AT
THIS TIME...THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN A
WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...A STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CAN
NOT BE RULED OUT WHERE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS INTERACT WITH THE
SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY WEAKEN AND/OR DISSIPATE
FOR MOST AREAS WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. THERE WILL ALSO A RISK FOR FOG TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT WHERE RAINFALL IS EXPERIENCED THIS EVENING. CONFIDENCE IN
COVERAGE AND DURATION IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST TONIGHT. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S AT THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LARGER SCALE PATTERN ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE TO FEATURE NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS ZONAL FLOW IS AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE AND
ASSOCIATED VORT MAX THAT IS CURRENTLY HELPING TO KICK OFF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN ALABAMA AND WESTERN GEORGIA. MODELS
DEPICT THIS SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...THE FEATURE ALOFT
WILL HELP TO DEVELOP A BROAD AND WEAK SURFACE LOW IN THE AFTERNOON
POSITIONED OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL HELP PROMOTE A PROGRESSIVE SEABREEZE WHICH
SHOULD SERVE TO PROMOTE ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE DURING THE
TIME OF PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING. MODELS SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN MOST
OF THE SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA/SOUTH CAROLINA...AND POPS HAVE BEEN INCREASED INTO THE 50
PERCENT RANGE FOR MANY AREAS. THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE GREAT FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...BUT A FEW
STRONGER STORMS COULD BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARIES INTERACT. ANOTHER
WARM DAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S.
OVERNIGHT...RAIN CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE ASSOCIATED WITH LINGERING
AFTERNOON/EVENING CONVECTION WHICH WILL BECOME MORE CONFINED TO THE
ATLANTIC WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE MILD...ONLY FALLING
INTO THE UPPER 60S.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ALOFT WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON
HOURS. ZONAL FLOW WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A NOTABLE
AREA OF NVA SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. ON THURSDAY...THE WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO PUSH OFFSHORE TO THE NORTH AND EAST.
IT MAY LINGER IN THE VICINITY LONG ENOUGH TO KICK OF ADDITIONAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION THURSDAY AFTERNOON...PRIMARILY
ALONG COASTAL GEORGIA NEAR THE SEABREEZE AND SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER. SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY...THE
THURSDAY THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WILL BE QUITE MARGINAL THOUGH
THERE MAY BE A BIT MORE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AS THE 500 MB FLOW
INCREASES. THE SEVERE POTENTIAL REMAINS LOW...THOUGH A FEW STRONG
STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. BY
FRIDAY...A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION IS NOTED IN SOUNDINGS AND THE
FORECAST IS DRY. WARM TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN
THE UPPER 80S AND LOW IN THE UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BETWEEN 20Z-22Z DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE HIGHEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THIS
EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES FOR DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS AS SOUTH WINDS BECOME SOUTHWEST
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. IN GENERAL..WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN
10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 FT IN NEARSHORE
WATERS AND 3 TO 4 FT IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
INLAND ON WEDNESDAY ALONG A LINGERING FRONT AND WILL SLOWLY PUSH OFF
THE SOUTHEAST COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
IN FROM THE NORTH ON FRIDAY AND WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. CONDITIONS WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET THROUGH THURSDAY
WITH WINDS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS LESS THAN 3 FT. WINDS
MAY BE LOCALLY STRONGER ALONG THE LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEABREEZE. FRIDAY/S WINDS WILL BE A BIT ENHANCED IN THE
INCREASING NORTHEAST FLOW AS THE HIGH BUILDS IN...BECOMING 15-20 KT.

THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND.
PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE
IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...BSH/DPB
MARINE...BSH/DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 191744
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LVL RIDGE FLATTENS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. MODELS HINT AT TWO
PRIMARY SHORTWAVES BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
THEY ENCOUNTER A PINNED SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST. LATEST VIS SAT
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH COULD FURTHER PROMOTE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS IN THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS
THE SEABREEZE MAKES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROGRESS OVER
INLAND AREAS.

A WEST FLOW OFF THE SFC WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC HEATING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF
HEATING...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -4C...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. SHOULD A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OCCUR...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN TANDEM WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY THIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK. A PASSING VORT
MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING
LOW AND SEA BREEZE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS MARGINAL...PEAKING
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE
UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SEEMS FAIRLY LIMITED
HOWEVER GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN 20 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

THURSDAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...ABSORBING THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA. LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DECREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BETWEEN 19Z-22Z DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE HIGHEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ALL WATERS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OCCURS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
A SOLID 15 KT ALONG THE BEACHES AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND. SEAS WILL
BE NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL SURGING LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE
MOVEMENT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. REGARDLESS...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 191744
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LVL RIDGE FLATTENS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. MODELS HINT AT TWO
PRIMARY SHORTWAVES BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
THEY ENCOUNTER A PINNED SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST. LATEST VIS SAT
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH COULD FURTHER PROMOTE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS IN THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS
THE SEABREEZE MAKES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROGRESS OVER
INLAND AREAS.

A WEST FLOW OFF THE SFC WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC HEATING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF
HEATING...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -4C...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. SHOULD A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OCCUR...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN TANDEM WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY THIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK. A PASSING VORT
MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING
LOW AND SEA BREEZE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS MARGINAL...PEAKING
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE
UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SEEMS FAIRLY LIMITED
HOWEVER GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN 20 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

THURSDAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...ABSORBING THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA. LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DECREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...THERE COULD BE A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
BETWEEN 19Z-22Z DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. CHANCES
OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE HIGHEST AT THE CHS TERMINAL THIS
AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ALL WATERS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OCCURS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
A SOLID 15 KT ALONG THE BEACHES AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND. SEAS WILL
BE NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL SURGING LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE
MOVEMENT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. REGARDLESS...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 191714
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LVL RIDGE FLATTENS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. MODELS HINT AT TWO
PRIMARY SHORTWAVES BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
THEY ENCOUNTER A PINNED SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST. LATEST VIS SAT
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH COULD FURTHER PROMOTE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS IN THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS
THE SEABREEZE MAKES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROGRESS OVER
INLAND AREAS.

A WEST FLOW OFF THE SFC WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC HEATING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF
HEATING...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -4C...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. SHOULD A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OCCUR...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN TANDEM WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY THIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK. A PASSING VORT
MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING
LOW AND SEA BREEZE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS MARGINAL...PEAKING
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE
UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SEEMS FAIRLY LIMITED
HOWEVER GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN 20 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

THURSDAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...ABSORBING THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA. LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DECREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA PINS KCHS FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 19-22Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MARGINAL MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA DURING THIS TIME. WILL KEEP TSRA OUT
OF KSAV FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ALL WATERS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OCCURS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
A SOLID 15 KT ALONG THE BEACHES AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND. SEAS WILL
BE NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL SURGING LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE
MOVEMENT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. REGARDLESS...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 191714
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON
AND STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY...PUSHING THE FRONT
SOUTH OF THE AREA. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE
WEEKEND AND PREVAIL THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THIS AFTERNOON...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST AND A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE EVENING. THE PATTERN SHOULD FAVOR MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS AS A MID LVL RIDGE FLATTENS
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. MODELS HINT AT TWO
PRIMARY SHORTWAVES BEING RESPONSIBLE FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION AS
THEY ENCOUNTER A PINNED SEABREEZE NEAR THE COAST. LATEST VIS SAT
IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS A LOW PRESSURE FEATURE IN THE LOW LVLS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WHICH COULD FURTHER PROMOTE LIFTING OVER NORTHERN
AREAS. THIS SCENARIO REMAINS IN THE LATEST FORECAST...WITH
HIGHEST CHANCE POPS OVER THE TRI-COUNTY AREA IN SOUTH CAROLINA
AND CLOSER TO THE COAST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE AS
THE SEABREEZE MAKES LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING PROGRESS OVER
INLAND AREAS.

A WEST FLOW OFF THE SFC WILL RESULT IN STRONG SFC HEATING THROUGH
MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. 1000-850 MB THICKNESS VALUES SUPPORT MAX
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST. GIVEN THIS AMOUNT OF
HEATING...WE COULD SEE A FEW STRONGER PULSE TYPE THUNDERSTORMS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AS SBCAPES RANGE BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG AND LIFTED
INDEX VALUES APPROACH -4C...ESPECIALLY IF CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS
CONTINUE TO INTERACT WITH THE INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. SHOULD A
STRONGER THUNDERSTORM OCCUR...THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE STRONG WIND
GUSTS. HOWEVER...MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE GIVEN A
LACK OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ON A WEAKENING
TREND LATE EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TONIGHT...SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY WILL LINGER INTO THE MID-EVENING
HOURS BEFORE DIMINISHING IN TANDEM WITH DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
DEBRIS CLOUDINESS WILL GRADUALLY THIN WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RISK FOR MORE CONCENTRATED
AREAS OF FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING IN AREAS THAT SEE RAIN TODAY.
IT WILL BE WARM AND HUMID NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 60S INLAND WITH LOWER 70S AT THE COAST.

WEDNESDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE ORIENTED NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA AT DAYBREAK. A PASSING VORT
MAX WILL ALLOW FOR A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
FRONT...WHICH WILL THEN REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CONVERGENCE ALONG STALLED BOUNDARY/DEVELOPING
LOW AND SEA BREEZE WILL TRIGGER THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. FORECAST CAPE IS MARGINAL...PEAKING
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG...BUT VARIOUS BOUNDARY COLLISIONS MAY ENHANCE
UPDRAFTS AT TIMES. OVERALL SEVERE THREAT SEEMS FAIRLY LIMITED
HOWEVER GIVEN 0-6 KM SHEAR OF LESS THAN 20 KTS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL...WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S/LOW 90S AWAY FROM
THE COAST WHERE HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE MID 80S. LOWS EXPECTED TO
BE IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

THURSDAY...THE GENERAL PATTERN WILL CHANGE VERY LITTLE WITH STALLED
BOUNDARY STILL IN THE VICINITY. AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE GIVEN ELEVATED MOISTURE WITH THE FORECAST
CURRENTLY FEATURING LOW END CHANCE POPS. TEMPERATURES YET AGAIN WILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 80S/AROUND 90. THURSDAY NIGHT...A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC...ABSORBING THE STALLED BOUNDARY.
THIS WILL ALLOW SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST
AND FINALLY PUSH THE FRONT OFF THE COAST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE
IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND 70.

FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND OVER THE AREA. LACK
OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND DECREASING DEEP LAYERED MOISTURE WILL
KEEP POPS CAPPED BELOW 15 PERCENT. CLEARING SKIES AND BUILDING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL HELP OFFSET COOL AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE
FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED TO REACH NEAR NORMAL IF NOT
A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE. HIGHS WILL BE MID TO UPPER 80S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE NORTH WILL SLIDE INTO THE ATLANTIC ON
SATURDAY AND PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. BUILDING UPPER
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST WILL RESULT IN LARGE SCALE SUBSIDENCE...
ULTIMATELY LEADING TO LIMITED RAIN CHANCES. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
CONVECTION WOULD BE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WHERE BEST MOISTURE WILL RESIDE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR
ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR. HIGH RESOLUTION DATA PINS KCHS FOR THE BEST CHANCES FOR TSTMS
THIS AFTERNOON...ROUGHLY 19-22Z. WILL INCLUDE A TEMPO GROUP FOR
MARGINAL MVFR VSBYS IN TSRA DURING THIS TIME. WILL KEEP TSRA OUT
OF KSAV FOR NOW.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS FOR ALL WATERS AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OCCURS ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY REMAIN IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE...BUT WILL INCREASE TO
A SOLID 15 KT ALONG THE BEACHES AND IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR LATER
IN THE AFTERNOON AS A SEABREEZE BEGINS TO SHIFT INLAND. SEAS WILL
BE NO HIGHER THAN 1-3 FT...HIGHEST IN OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

TONIGHT...SOUTH WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS WILL AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH LOCALIZED
PERIODS OF NOCTURNAL SURGING LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-4 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST OVER OR IN THE VICINITY OF THE COASTAL WATERS
ON WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE RELATIVELY LITTLE
MOVEMENT ON THURSDAY. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT...WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE QUITE TRICKY. REGARDLESS...WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW HEADLINE CRITERIA. THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST HELPING TO PUSH THE
FRONT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE WATERS. THE HIGH WILL THEN SHIFT EAST
INTO THE ATLANTIC OVER THE WEEKEND. PRESSURE RISES AND A TIGHTENED
GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WINDS AND SEAS...AND A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ECT
LONG TERM...ECT
AVIATION...DPB/ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities