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000
FXUS62 KCHS 130244
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
944 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
13/02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 1009 HPA LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 NM
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC COLD PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND A STRONG POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ENSUES.
ALREADY SEEING PRESSURE RISES OF +3-5 HPA/HR OVER SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ALOFT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES
TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AS WELL AS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

SOME GROUND FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONAL THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. VSBYS AT
KNBC AND KARW HAVE BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT THE FOG SEEMS TO FAIRLY SHALLOW AS THERE HAS
YET TO BE ANY INDICATIONS OF IT IN GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...BUT THE RISK FOG WILL QUICKLY END
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND WINDS INCREASE.

FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS 1-2 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER GOING
  SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED NEAR TERM WIND GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
  THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT GOING
  OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 130244
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
944 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
13/02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 1009 HPA LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 NM
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC COLD PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND A STRONG POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ENSUES.
ALREADY SEEING PRESSURE RISES OF +3-5 HPA/HR OVER SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ALOFT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES
TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AS WELL AS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

SOME GROUND FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONAL THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. VSBYS AT
KNBC AND KARW HAVE BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT THE FOG SEEMS TO FAIRLY SHALLOW AS THERE HAS
YET TO BE ANY INDICATIONS OF IT IN GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...BUT THE RISK FOG WILL QUICKLY END
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND WINDS INCREASE.

FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS 1-2 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER GOING
  SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED NEAR TERM WIND GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
  THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT GOING
  OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 130244
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
944 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
13/02Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED 1009 HPA LOW PRESSURE ABOUT 200 NM
EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO
FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT BECOMES QUASI-STATIONARY.
THIS FRONT WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE
BECOMING ABSORBED IN THE RAPIDLY APPROACHING ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WHICH IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WESTERN SOUTH CAROLINA
MIDLANDS AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 20 MPH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS THE ARCTIC COLD PUSHES
OFFSHORE AND A STRONG POST-FRONTAL ISALLOBARIC RESPONSE ENSUES.
ALREADY SEEING PRESSURE RISES OF +3-5 HPA/HR OVER SOUTHERN
TENNESSEE...NORTHERN GEORGIA AND NORTHERN ALABAMA...WHICH WILL
TRANSLATE EAST WITH TIME AS COLD AIR ADVECTION INTENSIFIES ALOFT.
SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM
THE LOWER 30S ACROSS PORTIONS OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES
TO THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST AS WELL AS INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF LIBERTY...LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. WIND CHILLS WILL
DROP INTO THE MID 20S NORTH TO THE MID 30S SOUTH.

SOME GROUND FOG APPEARS TO HAVE DEVELOPED WITHIN THE STATIONARY
FRONTAL ZONAL THIS EVENING WHERE WINDS HAVE GONE CALM. VSBYS AT
KNBC AND KARW HAVE BEEN WAVERING BETWEEN 1/2 AND 2 MILES OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO...BUT THE FOG SEEMS TO FAIRLY SHALLOW AS THERE HAS
YET TO BE ANY INDICATIONS OF IT IN GOES-EAST FOG PRODUCTS. THIS
WILL BE MONITORED CAREFULLY...BUT THE RISK FOG WILL QUICKLY END
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE
AND WINDS INCREASE.

FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* LOWERED OVERNIGHT LOWS 1-2 DEGREES FOR MOST AREAS PER GOING
  SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.
* ADJUSTED NEAR TERM WIND GRIDS TO BETTER HANDLE THE EVOLUTION OF
  THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA FOR THE
  NEXT FEW HOURS.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS TO REFLECT GOING
  OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT TERM MODEL TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 122337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH ITS TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN REACHES OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF LONG...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE
  WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY SKY COVER TO REFLECT
  QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
* ZEROED OUT ALL GRIDDED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 122337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH ITS TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN REACHES OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF LONG...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE
  WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY SKY COVER TO REFLECT
  QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
* ZEROED OUT ALL GRIDDED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 122337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE IS NOW EAST OF CAPE HATTERAS WITH ITS TRAILING
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA. THE FRONT WILL GRADUALLY SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS AS THE LOW PUSHES FARTHER OFFSHORE. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IS FORECAST TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING. EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH CLEAR SKIES. SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER
OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WILL GRADUALLY MIX OUT OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND THE GRIDDED FORECASTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED
TO REFLECT THIS. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS
NORTHERN REACHES OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES TO THE LOWER
40S ACROSS FAR SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA...COASTAL GEORGIA AND
INLAND PORTIONS OF LONG...LIBERTY AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES.

FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO CAPTURE
  WARMER TEMPERATURES SOUTH OF THE STATIONARY FRONT.
* SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO HOURLY SKY COVER TO REFLECT
  QUICKER THAN EXPECTED CLEARING.
* MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND DIRECTIONS TO BETTER CAPTURE THE
  EXPECTED MOVEMENT OF THE STATIONARY FRONT LATER THIS EVENING.
* ZEROED OUT ALL GRIDDED POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT..LOW PRESSURE OFF THE OUTER BANKS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHEAST TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE
WATERS EARLY SATURDAY. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING COLDER AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER
THE WARMER OFFSHORE WATERS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS FOR
THE EXPECTED DEVELOPMENT OF GUSTY WINDS TO 25 KT. SEAS WILL
AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEARSHORE WATERS AND 3-5 FT OFFSHORE WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 11 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 122104
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
404 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...FOLLOWED BY
AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LIGHT PRECIP WILL TAPER OFF OVER SC ZONES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE FAR EASTERN SC COAST SHIFTS FARTHER
OFFSHORE. A REINFORCING DRY COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE
AREA LATER TONIGHT WITH CLEARING SKIES AND INCREASING WINDS FROM
THE NW. ONCE THE COLD ADVECTION INITIATES LATER TONIGHT...TEMPS
WILL PLUMMET INTO THE 30S MOST AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION IN THE MORNING. STRONG SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL USHER IN MUCH
COLDER AIR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. DESPITE PLENTIFUL
SUNSHINE...NORTHWEST FLOW AND STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
DOMINATE. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH THE MID/UPPER 40S
(ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE LOWERS 50S (ACROSS THE SAVANNAH
METRO AREA). TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET SATURDAY NIGHT THE HIGH
MOVES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES DUE TO
NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY,
LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER WILL ASSIST IN THE COOLING. TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL INTO THE LOW/MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BEACHES. THE SOUTH CAROLINA BEACHES WILL BE
NEAR 30 DEGREES WHILE THE GEORGIA BEACHES WILL BE IN THE MID 30S.
WINDS WILL BE 5-10 MPH. THIS WILL EQUATE TO WIND CHILL VALUES IN
THE MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS MOST OF OUR SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES
AND THE LOWER TO MID 20S ACROSS MOST OF OUR GEORGIA COUNTIES. THIS
IS AN INCREASE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THE GEORGIA COUNTIES
BECAUSE MODELS TRENDED SLIGHTLY "WARMER" WITH THE MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHTLY LOWER WITH THE WINDS. A WIND CHILL
ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...THE MOST LIKELY PLACES BEING THE SOUTH CAROLINA COASTAL
ZONES.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. COLD AIR ACROSS THE REGION
ALONG WITH NORTHEAST WINDS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO BARELY REACH
THE LOWER 40S (ACROSS THE TRI-COUNTY) AND THE MID 40S (ACROSS THE
SAVANNAH METRO AREA). OUR SOUTHERNMOST GEORGIA COUNTIES MIGHT
REACH 50 DEGREES. THE PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFF OF THE NORTHEAST U.S. COAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER DUE TO MORE OF AN ONSHORE WIND. IN
GENERAL...LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE 30S...COLDEST FAR
INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS SOME CONCERN
REGARDING FROZEN PRECIPITATION BEFORE DAYBREAK. MODELS SHOW
PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ALONG THE COAST NEAR THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE IN THE UPPER 30S ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST AND THE LOWER 40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OVER THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. FOR NOW...KEPT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. THOUGH...THE TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. POPS INCREASE IN THE
AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH THAT SKIRTS
THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE 60S.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER LAKE MOULTRIE
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY DUE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGING RAIN TO
THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SC/NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST
TONIGHT BEFORE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. INCREASING N WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BRING COLDER
AIR OVER THE WATERS...ENHANCING MIXING PROFILES OVER THE WARMER
OFFSHORE WATERS. WE ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER MIDNIGHT
FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS AND LATE TONIGHT FOR THE CHARLESTON
NEARSHORE WATERS MAINLY DUE TO 25 KT GUSTS.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. CONDITIONS SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS
A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL
QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND
THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG LOW LVL
WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL/MS
MARINE...JRL/MS





000
FXUS62 KCHS 121750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 121750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 121750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS AT BOTH TAF SITES WILL LIFT TO VFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AS THE FRONT SHIFTS OFFSHORE. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THEREAFTER. GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY SATURDAY BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 121559
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1059 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FRONT WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY
WHILE A SURFACE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TAKES SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
MYRTLE BEACH. THUS FAR THE PRECIP HAS BEEN VERY LIMITED AND ONLY
OVER THE SC MIDLANDS THOUGH SKY COVER HAS BEEN EXTENSIVE SINCE
EARLY THIS MORNING. WE LOWERED POPS THIS MORNING BUT MAINTAINED
SLIGHT CHANCE OVER SOUTHERN SC AND THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON WHEN
BETTER ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP AS THE SURFACE LOW
STRENGTHENS.

TEMPS ARE A CHALLENGE DUE TO THE FRONT IN PLACE AND POSSIBILITY OF
PARTIAL CLEARING OVER INLAND AREAS LATE. FAR NORTHERN AREAS WILL
REMAIN COOLER BUT MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE WARM
SECTOR WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER SKIES
CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE GEORGIA INCLUDING KSAV ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NE TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WITH KCHS LIKELY TO BECOME MVFR
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PER 06Z VERTICAL MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INVERSION PROFILES. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINS ARE SLIM. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED SCATTERED OUT FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 121210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CONSOLIDATING WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE TODAY MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ZIPS
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE A FAIR AMOUNT
OF UPPER DIFLUENCE AND 850 MB TO 500 OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA BUT
TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR JUST SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE DID EXTEND SOME LOWER POPS ACROSS MOST
OF SE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
SUGGEST THERE WILL MAY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS DEVELOPING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE SPARSE.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
GOING WARMER ONCE AGAIN IN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-16. WE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER AT CHARLESTON BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER UP AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES WHERE THE PATTERN STAYS
MORE WEDGED. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING SHOULD BE AFTER SUNSET MANY
AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95...PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
GEORGIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER
SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ACROSS SE GEORGIA INCLUDING KSAV ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
NE TODAY ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT WITH KCHS LIKELY TO BECOME MVFR
BY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON PER 06Z VERTICAL MOISTURE AND
LOW LEVEL INVERSION PROFILES. SPOTTY SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR BUT CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAINS ARE SLIM. CIGS
ARE EXPECTED SCATTERED OUT FROM SW TO NE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT AFTER 00Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 120948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY VARIABLE AND
TRANSIENT PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN NORTHERN ZONES...TEMPS THAT FELL TO THE MID AND UPPER
30S LAST EVENING HAVE WARMED UNDER CLOUDINESS TO THE MID 40S BUT
MAY FALL BACK A BIT BY DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS ARE IN AND OUT. DRY
WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH 6 AM AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN.

A CONSOLIDATING WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE TODAY MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ZIPS
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UPPER DIFLUENCE AND 850 MB TO 500 OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA
BUT TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE DID EXTEND SOME LOWER POPS
ACROSS MOST OF SE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL MAY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
GOING WARMER ONCE AGAIN IN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-16. WE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER AT CHARLESTON BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER UP AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES WHERE THE PATTERN STAYS
MORE WEDGED. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING SHOULD BE AFTER SUNSET MANY
AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95...PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
GEORGIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER
SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT DATA
SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE AT KCHS
WHILE AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV THIS MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO
MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 120948
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
448 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE REGION TODAY WHILE A
STALLED FRONT LINGERS TO THE NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE EARLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A SECONDARY
ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. DRY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN RETURN AND PERSIST MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...OVERNIGHT CLOUDS HAVE BEEN EXTREMELY VARIABLE AND
TRANSIENT PROVIDING FLUCTUATING SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA. IN NORTHERN ZONES...TEMPS THAT FELL TO THE MID AND UPPER
30S LAST EVENING HAVE WARMED UNDER CLOUDINESS TO THE MID 40S BUT
MAY FALL BACK A BIT BY DAYBREAK AS CLOUDS ARE IN AND OUT. DRY
WEATHER ON TAP THROUGH 6 AM AS MOISTURE AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT
NOT ENOUGH TO PRODUCE MEASURABLE PCPN.

A CONSOLIDATING WAVE OF LOW PRES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ALIGNED
JUST NORTH OF THE SAVANNAH RIVER THIS MORNING WILL SLOWLY DEEPEN
OFFSHORE TODAY MOVING WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATER
TODAY. THE BULK OF THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL RESIDE TO THE NORTH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS A RIBBON OF CHANNELED VORTICITY ZIPS
OVER NORTH GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. THERE WILL BE A FAIR
AMOUNT OF UPPER DIFLUENCE AND 850 MB TO 500 OMEGA ACROSS THE AREA
BUT TODAY CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE A CANDIDATE FOR JUST SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE BOARD. WE DID EXTEND SOME LOWER POPS
ACROSS MOST OF SE GEORGIA THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR LOWER
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE TRAILING FRONT WHILE HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST THERE WILL MAY A NARROW BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS
DEVELOPING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE
SPARSE.

TEMPS WILL BE A CHALLENGE TODAY AS THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR READINGS
GOING WARMER ONCE AGAIN IN GEORGIA AND COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND WE
HAVE BUMPED HIGHS INTO THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 SOUTH OF I-16. WE
ALSO TRENDED A BIT HIGHER AT CHARLESTON BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN
COOLER UP AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES WHERE THE PATTERN STAYS
MORE WEDGED. MODELS INDICATE CLEARING SHOULD BE AFTER SUNSET MANY
AREAS ALONG AND E OF I-95...PERHAPS LATE AFTERNOON OVER INLAND
GEORGIA.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH TONIGHT AFTER
SKIES CLEAR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY WHILE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION EARLY...REINFORCING A COLD AIR MASS ALREADY IN
PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. TEMPS WILL STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S EARLY...THEN BEGIN A COOLING TREND
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DOMINATES ANY DOWNSLOPING
WIND COMPONENT ALOFT. TEMPS WILL BE QUITE CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT AS
COLDER AIR CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH INTO THE AREA WITH LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER ALOFT. TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 20S IN COMBINATION WITH 5-10
MPH WINDS WILL SUPPORT WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR 15 DEGREES OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY COULD BE NEEDED
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER DRY COLD DAY IS EXPECTED AS PREVAILING NORTHEAST
WINDS OCCUR ALONG HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS ANCHORED OVER THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD ONLY PEAK AROUND 40 DEGREES IN
NORTHERN AREAS...AND MID 40S IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. A TRANSITION IN
THE PATTERN SHOULD THEN BEGIN SUNDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTH. TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE WARMER THAN THE
PREVIOUS NIGHT AS A MORE ONSHORE WIND DEVELOPS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. IN GENERAL...LOW TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
30S...COLDEST INLAND.

MONDAY...THE DAY WILL START OFF CHILLY AND THERE IS A SOME CONCERN
OF FROZEN PRECIP BEFORE DAYBREAK SHOULD DRIZZLE DEVELOP IN RESPONSE
TO ISENTROPIC ASCENT. HOWEVER...LATEST GUIDANCE DOES NOT DEPICT
PRECIP ACCUMULATION OVER THE AREA AND TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
QUICKLY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS WELL AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACKING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. CHANCES OF PRECIP
INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL TROUGH
THAT SKIRTS THE COAST. AFTERNOON HIGHS SHOULD APPROACH THE MID/UPPER
50S OVER MOST AREAS. A FEW AREAS COULD SEE TEMPS IN THE LOWER 60S IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK OVER THE DEEP SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHEAST STATES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...LEADING TO RAIN/SHOWERS
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN LOW DURING THIS
PERIOD...THUS THUNDER REMAINS OUT OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER...A 50 TO
60 KT LOW LVL JET WILL ACCOMPANY THE SYSTEM...LIKELY LEADING TO
GUSTY WIND CONDITIONS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. RAIN/SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO QUICKLY SHIFT OFFSHORE BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.
OVERALL HIGH TEMPS SHOULD RANGE IN THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 ON
TUESDAY...THEN GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE LOW/MID 60S BY THE WEEKEND.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NOTICEABLY WARMER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...IN THE
LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT DATA
SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE AT KCHS
WHILE AT KSAV...MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT KSAV THIS MORNING...BUT
PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF
LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO
MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD
LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITHIN RAIN/SHOWERS THAT OCCUR WITH A PASSING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
LOW PRES WILL DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS MORNING
AND MOVE WELL TO THE NE TODAY WHILE A TRAILING STATIONARY FRONT
LINGERS THROUGH THE NORTHERN WATERS. A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THIS EVENING FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRES BUILDING IN TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL VARY FROM LIGHT ONSHORE OFF CHARLESTON COUNTY THIS
MORNING TO VARIABLE OFF THE FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST
TO SW OVER GEORGIA WATERS. WE MAINTAINED A MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY FOR WATERS 40-60 NM OFFSHORE OF GEORGIA TODAY BUT EXPECT
LIGHTER WINDS OVER THE CHILLY SHELF WATERS.

OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SURGE IN THE WAKE OF COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN STRENGTHEN TO ADVISORY LEVELS AGAIN
BEYOND 20 NM OVERNIGHT. TONIGHT STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND
STRONG PRES RISES COULD INCITE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR PARTS OF
THE NEAR WATERS...ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED JETTING AREAS SUCH AS
GRAYS REEF AND SEAWARD FROM TYBEE ISLAND. SEAS WILL BUILD LATE
TONIGHT TO 4-6 FT OFFSHORE WITH A CHOPPY 2-3 FT ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES TO BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE
EARLY SATURDAY WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION OVER COASTAL WATERS.
WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A SECONDARY
SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT...LIKELY PRODUCING SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS
SHOULD BRIEFLY IMPROVE MONDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...BUT WILL QUICKLY DETERIORATE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY AS A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE
DEEP SOUTH AND THEN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST COAST. STRONG
LOW LVL WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR ALL WATERS AND POTENTIALLY GALE CONDITIONS OVER
WARMER WATERS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 120617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

TEMPERATURES HAVE LEVELED OFF AND HAD RISEN IN SOME AREAS. THERE
REMAINS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN HOURLY TEMPERATURE FORECASTS AS ANY
CHANGE IN EXTENT OF THE CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON
THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. CURRENT
DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER SUNRISE
FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 10Z-11Z
TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS STILL LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES REMAIN TOO LOW TO JUSTIFY
AN INCLUSION. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR
KCHS LATE TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED
GIVEN THE DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS
BY LATE AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A FAIRLY POTENT LOW PRES AREA IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AS IT PASSES THROUGH
THE REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY DAWN.
MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE EASTERLY
ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 120230
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
930 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST ALONG
A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP OFF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. GOES-EAST IR IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUDS
BEGINNING TO QUICKLY FILL IN AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO
SEE SOME LIGHT SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE
STRENGTHEN OF THE ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS
KEEP A VERY DRY 5000 FT SUB-CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT WITH CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50
MB ALONG THE 285-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING THIS EVENING WITHIN A LIGHT
WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO LEVEL OFF AND
POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS SOON AS CLOUD EXPAND AND THICKEN. HAVE
ALREADY OBSERVED STATIONS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL GEORGIA EXHIBIT AS
MUCH AS A 3-5 DEG RISE AS CLOUDS FORM. THE UPDATED LOW TEMPERATURE
FORECAST SHOWS LOWS RANGING FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS
OF DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH UPPER 40S ACROSS MUCH OF
LIBERTY...LONG AND MCINTOSH COUNTIES. THERE REMAINS MUCH
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOW TEMPERATURE AND HOURLY TEMPERATURE
FORECASTS AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT OF THE
EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE TEMPERATURE
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 112322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATER
THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A VERY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE THAT IS ROUGHLY 5000 FT DEEP WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50 MB ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE...
BUT WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOME AREAS MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THICKENING CLOUD
COVER. ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A
BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT
OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCHS 112322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATER
THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A VERY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE THAT IS ROUGHLY 5000 FT DEEP WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50 MB ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE...
BUT WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOME AREAS MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THICKENING CLOUD
COVER. ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A
BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT
OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 112322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
622 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ALABAMA WILL TRANSLATE EAST
TONIGHT ALONG A WEST-EAST ORIENTED STATIONARY FRONT AND REDEVELOP
OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FRIDAY MORNING. CLEAR SKIES THAT ARE
CURRENTLY IN PLACE WILL QUICKLY GIVE WAY TO CLOUDY SKIES LATER
THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING SURFACE LOW. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME LIGHT
SPRINKLES DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT GIVEN THE STRENGTHEN OF THE
ISENTROPIC LIFT...HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS KEEP A VERY DRY SUB-
CLOUD LAYER IN PLACE THAT IS ROUGHLY 5000 FT DEEP WITH
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS HOLDING IN EXCESS OF 50 MB ALONG
THE 290-295K SURFACES. THIS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO KEEP ANY
PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS AS VIRGA AND THUS NON-MEASURABLE...
BUT WILL WATCH THIS CAREFULLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR SOME AREAS MAY BE CONSIDERED WITH THE
LATE EVENING UPDATE.

PINNING DOWN OVERNIGHT LOWS IS PROVING EXTREMELY TRICKY AS STRONG
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING WITHIN A
LIGHT WIND/CLEAR SKY REGIME BEFORE THE ONSET OF THICKENING CLOUD
COVER. ONCE CLOUDS BEGIN TO DEVELOP...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
LEVEL OFF AND POSSIBLY RISE IN SOME AREAS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE
OPTED TO NUDGE OVERNIGHT LOWS UP 1-2 DEGREES IN MANY AREAS GIVEN
THE EXPECTED TIMING OF THE CLOUD COVER...BUT THERE IS CERTAINLY A
BIG BUST POTENTIAL HERE AS ANY CHANGE IN THE TIMING AND/OR EXTENT
OF THE EXPECTED CLOUD CANOPY WILL HAVE A BIG IMPACT ON THE
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURE FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS EARLY THIS EVENING WITH
CEILINGS BECOMING ESTABLISHED AND THEN LOWERING BY LATE EVENING.
CURRENT DATA SUPPORT CIGS DROPPING TO MVFR THRESHOLDS AFTER
SUNRISE FRIDAY...WHILE AT KSAV MVFR CIGS LOOK TO SETTLE IN BY 09Z
TONIGHT. ATTM THE BEST CHANCES FOR IFR CIGS LOOK TO OCCUR AT
KSAV FRIDAY MORNING...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW THIS FAR OUT
TO JUSTIFY AN INCLUSION. WILL LIMIT CIGS TO BKN012 WITH SCT008 TO
TREND. PATCHES OF LIGHT RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NEAR KCHS LATE
TONIGHT...BUT NO MEANINGFUL VSBY REDUCTIONS ARE EXPECTED GIVEN THE
DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER. VFR WILL RETURN TO BOTH TERMINALS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES AWAY FROM THE AREA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...THERE ARE NO CONCERNS WITH A GREATER
THAN 30 PERCENT PROBABILITY ATTM.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCHS 112059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS AL/MS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER BUT
THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SC WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A BIT...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS
GA...AS CLOUDS THICKEN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SC WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID 40S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 112059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS AL/MS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER BUT
THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SC WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A BIT...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS
GA...AS CLOUDS THICKEN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SC WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID 40S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 112059
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
359 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT. THE LOW
WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA FRIDAY...THEN AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION. MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS AL/MS IS EXPECTED TO
SHIFT EASTWARD ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT THAT RUNS THROUGH SOUTHEAST
GA AS A SHORTWAVE MOVES SOUTHEAST FROM THE MS VALLEY INTO THE TN
VALLEY. MEANWHILE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC/CAROLINAS WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS SHOULD
DEVELOP THIS EVENING AS ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASES...WITH CLOUDS
LOWERING TOWARD DAYBREAK. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT RAIN
AND SPRINKLES AFTER MIDNIGHT WE THINK MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED
ENOUGH TO PREVENT MUCH MEASURABLE RAIN UNTIL CLOSER TO DAYBREAK.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE TRICKY AS MUCH DEPENDS ON THE CLOUD COVER BUT
THINK THAT TEMPS WILL FALL FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS SC WHERE THE AIR MASS IS DRIER. THEN TEMPERATURES COULD
STABILIZE OR EVEN RISE A BIT...MAINLY IN COASTAL AREAS AND ACROSS
GA...AS CLOUDS THICKEN. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SC WITH LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE EXCEPT MID 40S GENERALLY
SOUTH OF I-16.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE BISECTED BY A WEST TO EAST COLD
FRONT WHILE WEAK LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT JUST OFF THE SC
COAST. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...SOME ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL
DEVELOP AROUND DAYBREAK ACROSS SOUTHERN SC AS THE FRONTAL ZONE
TIGHTENS UP AND THE LOW STRENGTHENS. WE INTRODUCED SLIGHT CHANCE
OF RAIN OVER OUR SC AND FAR EASTERN GA ZONES DURING FRIDAY
DAYTIME. THE FRONT WILL PRODUCE A WIDE RANGE OF HIGH TEMPS ON
FRIDAY WITH UPPER 60S FAR SOUTH TO UPPER 40S FAR NORTH.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID 30S INLAND TO LOWER 40S SOUTH.

COLD ADVECTION ON SATURDAY WILL BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY EVENING...RESULTING IN BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND. SATURDAY HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S.

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING NNE WINDS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL NOT ONLY DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOW
TO MID 20S...BUT WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE IN THE TEENS. WE
CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS
SUNDAY MORNING. SUNDAY WILL ONLY SHOW HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
LOW/MID 40S.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN
THE LONG TERM WHICH IS A SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE
MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A
SHARPENING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE INLAND THROUGH CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY
NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS
TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT
PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH
LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS
TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND
THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS
THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW
NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO
NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER
CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...WEAK LOW PRESSURE ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR THE
SAVANNAH RIVER WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS FROM THE WEST BY
DAWN. MOSTLY SOUTHERLY WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BACK TO MORE
EASTERLY ACROSS THE SC WATERS AND VEER TO THE SOUTHWEST AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN BECOME SOUTHWEST FOR MOST OF THE WATERS EXCEPT
CLOSER TO THE SANTEE RIVER TOWARD DAYBREAK. WINDS COULD GUST NEAR
25 KT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE BUT DO NOT EXPECT AN ADVISORY
FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SEAS TO BUILD A BIT...UP TO 4 FT NEAR
THE GULF STREAM BUT MAINLY 2 FT OR LESS WITHIN 20 NM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...WESTERLY WINDS INCREASE ON FRIDAY OVER
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE MARINE AREA DUE TO LOW-LEVEL JETTING
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AN 8 TO 10 HOUR WINDOW OF 25 KT GUSTS IS
EXPECTED OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS SO WE
ISSUED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THAT ZONE DURING FRIDAY DAYTIME.

ONCE THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ON
FRIDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST BEHIND A
SECONDARY SURGE SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE INTO MONDAY
WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 6 PM EST FRIDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 111829
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
129 PM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE...ALTHOUGH WE DID RAISE HIGH TEMPS A TAD FOR MOST AREAS WITH
LOWER 60S NOW EXPECTED SOUTH OF I-16. PROBABLY SEEING SOME
COMPRESSIONAL WARMING EFFECTS ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR
SKIES FOR MOST OF THE DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS LATE. LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NEAR THE
SANTEE RIVER TO AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. LIGHT WEST
WINDS EARLY WILL SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH ABOUT 09Z FRIDAY BEFORE VFR CIGS LOWER TO
AT LEAST MVFR BY ABOUT 10Z AT KSAV AND BY ABOUT 12Z AT KCHS. CIGS
WILL LIKELY EVENTUALLY REACH IFR/LIFR LEVELS. THERE COULD ALSO BE
SOME LIGHT RAIN BUT DUE TO LOW CHANCES/IMPACTS WE ARE NOT
INCLUDING IN THE TAFS YET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT
OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 111506
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WITH THE LATEST
UPDATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WITH A FEW CLOUDS LATE. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS
SUGGEST HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NEAR THE SANTEE RIVER TO
AROUND 60 NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER. LIGHT WEST WINDS EARLY WILL
SHIFT MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A
SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS.
W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW
SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL
TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 111219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE
COLD READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES
REGION. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO
52-53 DEGREES WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE
BIGGER FACTOR WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY
SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 700 AM EST WE LOWERED ALL REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER
THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 111219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE
COLD READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES
REGION. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO
52-53 DEGREES WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE
BIGGER FACTOR WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY
SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 700 AM EST WE LOWERED ALL REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER
THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 111219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
719 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE
REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE
COLD READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING
THE AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS
WILL WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN
GEORGIA TO AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES
REGION. A WEAK DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO
52-53 DEGREES WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE
BIGGER FACTOR WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS
AVERAGING ONLY AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW
MID/HIGH CLOUDS LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY
SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. SMALL CHANCES FOR MVFR CIGS
AT BOTH TERMINALS IN THE 08Z-12Z TIME FRAME TONIGHT AS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE A LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS POTENTIAL IN A WARM
AIR ADVECTION REGIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 700 AM EST WE LOWERED ALL REMAINING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AS
WINDS CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE. THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS
RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER
THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY
THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS OVER THE NEAR SHORE
WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 110911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAD NESTLED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE A LINGERING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT HAS KEPT LIGHT
BREEZES STIRRING FROM AREAS NORTH OF I-16 INCLUDING MOST OF SE
SOUTH CAROLINA. SHELTERED TEMPS IN RURAL AREAS TENDING TO RUN
QUITE A BIT COLDER WHILE MORE URBAN AND EXPOSED SITES HAD BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT WEST BREEZE FOR COASTAL AREAS NEARING DAWN...SOUTHERN AND
INLAND ZONES SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH TO SEE LOW TEMPS OCCUR
DURING THE DAYBREAK HOUR...MANY AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE COLD
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION. A WEAK
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO 52-53 DEGREES
WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE BIGGER FACTOR
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING ONLY
AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 330 AM EST WE LOWERED ADVISORIES FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF EDISTO BEACH AND EXPECT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE NEAR SHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS WILL BE READY TO COME DOWN BY DAYBREAK AS WILL
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 110911
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
411 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THIS LOW WILL PULL AWAY FROM
THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY
NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.
MORE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN THEREAFTER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE HAD NESTLED OVER SOUTH GEORGIA EARLY THIS
MORNING WHILE A LINGERING LOW LEVEL PRES GRADIENT HAS KEPT LIGHT
BREEZES STIRRING FROM AREAS NORTH OF I-16 INCLUDING MOST OF SE
SOUTH CAROLINA. SHELTERED TEMPS IN RURAL AREAS TENDING TO RUN
QUITE A BIT COLDER WHILE MORE URBAN AND EXPOSED SITES HAD BEEN
BOUNCING AROUND THE FREEZING MARK OVERNIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND A
LIGHT WEST BREEZE FOR COASTAL AREAS NEARING DAWN...SOUTHERN AND
INLAND ZONES SHOULD DECOUPLE JUST ENOUGH TO SEE LOW TEMPS OCCUR
DURING THE DAYBREAK HOUR...MANY AREAS SHOULD BE DOWN TO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S.

TODAY A SURFACE HIGH PRES RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE FORECAST AREA
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE. TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO MODERATE FROM THE COLD
READINGS ON WEDNESDAY THAT WERE STUCK IN THE LOWER 40S DURING THE
AFTERNOON MANY AREAS. LOW LEVEL THICKNESS PROGS SUGGEST HIGHS WILL
WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S TO THE SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA TO
AROUND 50 DEGREES AROUND THE SANTEE COOPER LAKES REGION. A WEAK
DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT MAY PUSH HIGHS AT CHARLESTON TO 52-53 DEGREES
WHILE SAVANNAH LIKELY REACHES THE MID 50S. THE BIGGER FACTOR
WILL BE MUCH LESS WIND THAN YESTERDAY WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING ONLY
AROUND 10 MPH. SUNSHINE MAY BE PUNCTUATED BY A FEW MID/HIGH CLOUDS
LATER IN THE DAY BUT NOT ENOUGH TO ALTER A MAINLY SUNNY FORECAST.

TONIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SPUR A
SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE WAVES THAT WILL TRAVERSE A POORLY DEFINED
BAROCLINIC REGION ACROSS THE SE STATES. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
BELOW 10K FT RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF CLOUDINESS OVER THE
REGION OVERNIGHT BUT WITH 00Z MODELS PAINTING HIGH 850 MB TO 500
MB CONDENSATION PRES DEFICITS...WE MAINTAINED A DRY FORECAST
TONIGHT ALTHOUGH A FEW BRIEF SPRINKLES LATE CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND LOW LEVEL DEW POINTS SHOULD SPELL OUT A
MILDER OVERNIGHT...TEMPS THIS EVENING MAY BE TRICKY DEPENDING ON
WHAT TIME CLOUDS INCREASE. WE GRADUATED LOWS FROM THE MID 30S N TO
THE LOWER 40S S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT. THE MORNING WILL START OFF WITH A WEAK AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SITUATED JUST OFF THE COAST AND POISED TO PULL AWAY
FROM THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY WILL
BRING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES BEFORE CLEARING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN QUICKLY BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM. MODELS ARE
IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ALMOST ALL OF THE PRECIPITATION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL STAY JUST OFFSHORE...THOUGH THERE IS
SOME VERY LIGHT QPF IN THE MORNING. THE FORECAST MAINTAINS THE FEW
HOURS OF SLIGHT CHANCE POP ACROSS EASTERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON
COUNTIES...BUT LITTLE TO NO MEASURABLE RAINFALL IS EXPECTED.
TEMPERATURES WILL DEPEND GREATLY ON HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS ERODE AND
INSOLATION CAN BEGIN. CLOUDS WILL LIKELY HANG ON IN THE EAST THE
LONGEST SO WE MAY END UP WITH QUITE A TEMPERATURE GRADIENT. THE
FORECAST FEATURES HIGHS FROM THE MID 60S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA TO THE
LOW TO MID 50S FOR THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. OVERNIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN AND COLD NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL. LOWS
WILL DIP INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S INLAND...WITH LOW 40S AT THE
COAST.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WEEKEND WILL BE DEFINED BY A STRONG
ARCTIC COLD FRONT POISED TO CROSS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTH/NORTHWEST LATE SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE RESULT WILL BE
A VERY COLD WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SATURDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE
FROM AROUND 50 TO THE LOW/MID 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. SATURDAY
NIGHT WILL BE A COLD AND BLUSTERY NIGHT WITH LOWS DIPPING INTO THE
LOW 20S IN MANY AREAS...WITH MID TO UPPER 20S COMMON. WITH ELEVATED
WINDS SUNDAY MORNING...WIND CHILL VALUES WILL FALL INTO AT LEAST THE
LOW TO MID TEENS NORTH OF I-16 WITH UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S FURTHER
SOUTH. A WIND CHILL ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED AND WE WILL MAINTAIN THE
MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FINALLY FOR SUNDAY...HIGHS
WILL BE 20 DEGREES OR MORE BELOW NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE
TO REACH 40 AROUND THE CHARLESTON AREA...WITH MID 40S AROUND
SAVANNAH AND POINTS SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT REMAINS GOOD REGARDING THE MAIN FORECAST IN THE LONG
TERM WHICH IS SYSTEM EXPECTED TO PUSH THROUGH LATE MONDAY THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY. THE PERIOD WILL START OFF WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER NEW
ENGLAND AND A STRENGTHENING WEDGE INLAND AND A SHARPENING COASTAL
TROUGH OFFSHORE. LOW PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO MOVE INLAND THROUGH
CENTRAL GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT. THE BEST TIME PERIOD
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE DURING THIS TIME AS THE DEEP MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM DOES NOT PRECEDE IT BY MUCH. MODEL
AGREEMENT IS GOOD ENOUGH TO GO WITH LIKELY POPS...THOUGH IT
SHOULDN/T BE A LONG DURATION EVEN THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE
OF THE MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...DRY HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN. TEMPERATURES LOOK AS THOUGH THEY WILL MODERATE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...STARTING OFF BELOW NORMAL MONDAY WITHIN THE
WEDGE...THEN INCREASING THEREAFTER TO NEAR NORMAL BY MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
AT 330 AM EST WE LOWERED ADVISORIES FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS SOUTH
OF EDISTO BEACH AND EXPECT THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE NEAR SHORE
CHARLESTON WATERS WILL BE READY TO COME DOWN BY DAYBREAK AS WILL
THE OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS.

THIS MORNING...OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS A SURFACE
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS RELAXING THE PRES GRADIENTS. W FLOW
WILL FALL BELOW 10 KT LATER THIS MORNING THEN THE FLOW SHOULD BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL FALL TO 2 FT OR LESS
OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WEAK LOW PRES WILL SHIFT INTO THE WATERS BY DAWN ON FRIDAY...THE
FLOW SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY LIGHT AND CHAOTIC AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES OVERNIGHT. WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL RE-ESTABLISH A
STRONGER LOW LEVEL INVERSION TONIGHT BUT AN INCREASING SW JET
OVER WARMER OUTER GEORGIA WATERS CLOSER TO THE GULF STREAM SHOULD
INCITE AN UPTICK IN SW FLOW BEYOND 40 NM OFFSHORE BUT WINDS AND
SEAS LIKELY WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE LOCAL WATERS ON FRIDAY AND COULD LEAD TO A SHORT PERIOD OF
NEAR SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.
BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT AND HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL RESULT IN A
PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE
SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN SOLID SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS WHICH WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE INTO MONDAY WHEN A COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND
EVENTUALLY LIFT NORTHWARD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 110553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 110553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 110553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT. SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID 20S WITH LOWER
30S AT THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR AT KCHS/KSAV THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY AS A NORTHWARD
EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. THE
COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS WILL NECESSITATE
KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 110223
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL IMPACT MAINLY INLAND
AREAS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MIX OUT IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL AFTER 2-3 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOW DROPPING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION IS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MAINLY INLAND AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY INSOLATION EFFECTS FROM
THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER. STILL ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLEAR
ENOUGH A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO REACH FORECAST MINIMUMS.
WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 110223
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL IMPACT MAINLY INLAND
AREAS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MIX OUT IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL AFTER 2-3 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOW DROPPING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION IS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MAINLY INLAND AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY INSOLATION EFFECTS FROM
THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER. STILL ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLEAR
ENOUGH A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO REACH FORECAST MINIMUMS.
WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 110223
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
923 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION.

CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY CROSSING THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS IS RAPIDLY APPROACHING THE INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA ZONES LATE THIS EVENING. IT NOW APPEARS THAT AT
LEAST A FEW HOURS OF MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL IMPACT MAINLY INLAND
AREAS AS WELL AS THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA BEFORE CLOUDS BEGIN TO
MIX OUT IN THE LEE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. STILL EXPECT CLEAR SKIES TO
PREVAIL AFTER 2-3 AM FOR THE ENTIRE AREA AND SKY COVER GRIDS HAVE
BEEN UPDATED TO REFLECT THIS THINKING.

IT WILL STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOW DROPPING
INTO THE MID-UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES...ALTHOUGH A
SLIGHT MODIFICATION IS NEEDED TO HOURLY TEMPERATURES ACROSS
MAINLY INLAND AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR LIKELY INSOLATION EFFECTS FROM
THE APPROACHING CLOUD COVER. STILL ANTICIPATE SKIES WILL CLEAR
ENOUGH A FEW HOURS PRIOR TO SUNRISE TO REACH FORECAST MINIMUMS.
WIND CHILLS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
CHARLESTON HARBOR.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 102310
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
610 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL
STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOW DROPPING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. WIND CHILLS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A THICK MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CLOUD DECK MOVING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER AND
BECOME DOWNSLOPE DOMINATED. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH BY LATE EVENING TO
DROP THE ADVISORY THERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 102310
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
610 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL
STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOW DROPPING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. WIND CHILLS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A THICK MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CLOUD DECK MOVING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER AND
BECOME DOWNSLOPE DOMINATED. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH BY LATE EVENING TO
DROP THE ADVISORY THERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 102310
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
610 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY
NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL
UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE
REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL
PROPAGATE EAST OVERNIGHT...REACHING CENTRAL FLORIDA BY SUNRISE. A
NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF THE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH FULL DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS
UNLIKELY GIVEN A CONTINUATION OF WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. IT WILL
STILL BE A CHILLY NIGHT FOR THE REGION WITH LOW DROPPING INTO THE
MID-UPPER 20S WITH LOWER 30S AT THE BEACHES. WIND CHILLS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

A THICK MID-LEVEL NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST ORIENTED CLOUD DECK MOVING
ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE IN THE LEE
OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AS MID-LEVEL TRAJECTORIES VEER AND
BECOME DOWNSLOPE DOMINATED. THIS WILL KEEP SKIES CLEAR THROUGH THE
NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE NIGHT
AS A NORTHWARD EXTENSION OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM
THE WEST. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY CONDITIONS AND ELEVATED SEAS
WILL NECESSITATE KEEPING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN PLACE THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL MARINE LEGS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CHARLESTON
HARBOR WHERE CONDITIONS SHOULD SUBSIDE ENOUGH BY LATE EVENING TO
DROP THE ADVISORY THERE.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
OFFSHORE WINDS WILL PRODUCE LOW OUT TIDES AROUND LOW TIDE EARLY
THURSDAY REACHING NEAR -1.0 FT MLLW IN CHARLESTON HARBOR AND -1.5
FT MLLW AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 102040
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCALES WITH EVEN IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TOWARD THE MIDLANDS/CSRA...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ELSEWHERE. SUCH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE TO SLOWLY IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS. WE RECENTLY CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING BEYOND
20 NM ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
NEAR 35 KT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY AROUND 20
NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL...DROPPING
BELOW 6 FT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOONER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR -1.0 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND -1.5 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 102040
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCALES WITH EVEN IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TOWARD THE MIDLANDS/CSRA...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ELSEWHERE. SUCH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE TO SLOWLY IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS. WE RECENTLY CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING BEYOND
20 NM ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
NEAR 35 KT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY AROUND 20
NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL...DROPPING
BELOW 6 FT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOONER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR -1.0 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND -1.5 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 102040
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
340 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN
THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD FROM THE WEST WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. A
DECENT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY
EVENING BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. LOW TEMPERATURES
SHOULD DROP INTO THE MID 20S FOR MOST LOCALES WITH EVEN IMMEDIATE COASTAL
AREAS SEEING FREEZING TEMPERATURES. WIND CHILLS WILL LIKELY BOTTOM
OUT IN THE UPPER TEENS TOWARD THE MIDLANDS/CSRA...SLIGHTLY WARMER
ELSEWHERE. SUCH VALUES WILL BE ABOVE ADVISORY LEVELS.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE THROUGH THIS EVENING DUE TO WIND GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ON THURSDAY THE UPPER LONGWAVE FLATTENS OUT WITH LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESSES INCREASING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. A WEAK SURFACE
FRONT WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON...BRINGING A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRATOCUMULUS LATE IN THE DAY. OTHERWISE MOST
AREAS WILL SEE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE DAY WITH
REBOUNDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 50S.

THURSDAY NIGHT A CHANNELED VORT WILL DROP INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
SPUR A WEAK SURFACE WAVE TO DEVELOP OFF THE SC COAST ALONG THE
TRAVERSING FRONT. SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING SKY COVER OVER
SOUTHEAST GA WILL KEEP LOW TEMPS IN THE LOWER 40S THOUGH COLD
ADVECTION IN NORTHERN AREAS WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE MIDDLE 30S.
THE ONLY APPRECIABLE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
AND FAR EASTERN LAND AREAS WHERE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND
LIFT ALONG THE FRONT TO PRODUCE PATCHY LIGHT RAIN.

THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY WHILE A
RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW PERSISTS ALOFT. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL
START THE DAY BUT WE EXPECT DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SLIGHT WARM ADVECTION OVER SOUTHEAST GA AND SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SUN SHOULD PRODUCE HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.
ELSEWHERE THE HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

AN EXPANSIVE 1044 MB HIGH WILL BUILD FROM CANADA INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS SATURDAY MORNING...PUSHING AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
LOCAL FORECAST AREA. AFTERNOON COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP
SATURDAY HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTH TO MIDDLE 50S SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND
THE FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS
START OFF SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON BEHIND THE ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO
MID 20S...AND ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS
FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY
MORNING. INCLUDED MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE
ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL CHANCES WILL IMPACT
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST
AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS
LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ON
SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
COULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH...OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A DECREASE IN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL TRANSLATE TO SLOWLY IMPROVING
MARINE CONDITIONS. WE RECENTLY CANCELLED THE GALE WARNING BEYOND
20 NM ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW MARGINAL GALE FORCE GUSTS
NEAR 35 KT THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE NIGHT...MAINLY AROUND 20
NM OFFSHORE AND BEYOND. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE AS WELL...DROPPING
BELOW 6 FT TOWARD THE GULF STREAM LATE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR ALL WATERS THROUGH THE NIGHT...EXCEPT FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR WHERE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE SOONER.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...RELATIVELY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE COASTLINE FRIDAY MAY PRODUCE A BRIEF
PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS AND/OR SEAS OVER THE OFFSHORE
GA WATERS. OTHERWISE THE NEXT MAIN SURGE WILL BE LATE SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT. WINDS/SEAS WILL
INCREASE DRASTICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE NECESSARY FOR PORTIONS OF THE WATERS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING NEAR -1.0 FEET
MEAN LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND -1.5 FEET MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER AT FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354-374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 101836
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF TODAY...AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA. A BATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S
MOST LOCALES. HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE 30S DUE TO
BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. PEOPLE SHOULD BE
ALERT WHILE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND ALSO FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK TREES COMING DOWN DUE TO THE WET SOIL.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE
REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
MPH OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AROUND 25 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING BELOW -1.0 FT MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 101836
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF TODAY...AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA. A BATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S
MOST LOCALES. HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE 30S DUE TO
BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. PEOPLE SHOULD BE
ALERT WHILE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND ALSO FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK TREES COMING DOWN DUE TO THE WET SOIL.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE
REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
MPH OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AROUND 25 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING BELOW -1.0 FT MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 101836
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
136 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
REST OF TODAY...AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN WEST
OF THE AREA. A BATCH OF STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE CHARLESTON AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 40S
MOST LOCALES. HOWEVER...IT WILL FEEL MORE LIKE THE 30S DUE TO
BREEZY WEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO AROUND 35 MPH. PEOPLE SHOULD BE
ALERT WHILE DRIVING HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES AND ALSO FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME WEAK TREES COMING DOWN DUE TO THE WET SOIL.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE
REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY WEST WINDS ANTICIPATED THROUGH ABOUT 23Z...TOPPING OUT
NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
MPH OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AROUND 25 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING BELOW -1.0 FT MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER AT CHARLESTON AND FORT PULASKI.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 101604
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE COUNTRY TODAY AS THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TONIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS WELL BELOW FREEZING...DOWN NEAR -11C ACROSS MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA...WILL YIELD A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING
INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A FEW STRATOCU
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST SC MAINLY THIS MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING DUE TO THE DRYING DOWNSLOPE WEST FLOW. A TIGHT
PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL LEAD TO BREEZY
CONDITIONS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 35 MPH. SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WE
CHOSE NOT TO ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY AS OUR CRITERIA IS 40 MPH BUT
CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS NEAR 40 MPH AND POSSIBLY
EVEN SOME WEAK TREES COMING DOWN DUE TO THE WET SOIL.

TONIGHT...VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE
REGION UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE FROM AROUND 280 DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH GUSTS UP TO AROUND 35
MPH OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AROUND 25 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE NEAR BLOW OUT TIDES AROUND
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT...REACHING BELOW -1.0 FT MEAN
LOWER LOW WATER.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 101151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY AS THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TONIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -11C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
YIELD A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A FEW STRATOCU WILL MAKE IT INTO INLAND
ZONES THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN DOWNSLOPE. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONDITIONS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE FROM 270 TO 280 DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 25-27 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 101151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY AS THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TONIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -11C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
YIELD A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A FEW STRATOCU WILL MAKE IT INTO INLAND
ZONES THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN DOWNSLOPE. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONDITIONS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE FROM 270 TO 280 DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 25-27 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 101151
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
651 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY AS THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TONIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -11C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
YIELD A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A FEW STRATOCU WILL MAKE IT INTO INLAND
ZONES THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN DOWNSLOPE. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONDITIONS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS IN THE 25-30 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON. SUSTAINED WINDS SHOULD TOP OUT IN THE
15-20 KT RANGE FROM 270 TO 280 DEGREES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS NEARING THE GULF
STREAM. LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT
OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS
APPEAR GOOD FOR JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL
BE ON THE WANE TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES
FOR AMZ374 THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3
FT CLOSE TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 25-27 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 100915
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST FROM THE LOWER GULF COAST REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ON THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO A WEAK AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AN
ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION BY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN REMAIN IN CONTROL UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN THE NEXT FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH DAYBREAK WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP WINDS ELEVATED WITH WIND CHILLS POISED TO DROP INTO THE UPPER
TEENS AND LOWER 20S IN SOME AREAS.

A CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR MASS BLANKETS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTRY TODAY AS THE BASE OF A DEEP UPPER TROUGH BOTTOMS OUT
ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS BEFORE LIFTING OUT TONIGHT.
850 MB TEMPS OF -7 TO -11C ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
YIELD A COLD DAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
40S UNDER SUNNY SKIES. A FEW STRATOCU MAY MAKE IT INTO INLAND
ZONES THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING IN DOWNSLOPE. A TIGHT PRES
GRADIENT AND 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH POTENTIAL FOR A
RATHER DEEP MIXED LAYER THIS AFTERNOON WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY
ACROSS THE AREA. THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN CONDITIONS
BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

VERY DRY AND COLD AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PRESIDE OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT UNDER CLEAR SKIES. THERE WILL STILL BE GOOD PRES GRADIENT
BUT THERE ARE SIGNS THAT IT MAY TEND TO DECOUPLE A BIT LATE TO THE
SOUTH OF I-16 IN GEORGIA AND WE LOWERED MIN TEMPS A FEW DEGREES
THERE. WIND CHILLS WILL DIP INTO THE UPPER TEENS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS SE SOUTH CAROLINA.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE INTO THIS EVENING AND THE ADVISORY
SHOULD BE ABLE TO COME DOWN FOR THE OVERNIGHT AS GUSTS SUBSIDE.
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW GUSTS TO 30 KT ON OPEN LAKE WATERS TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN
CONSISTENT AND FEATURE A PROMINENT LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL GET
REINFORCED OVERNIGHT BY ADDITIONAL APPROACHING ENERGY. AT THE
SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE CAUGHT IN THE WEAKNESS BETWEEN
HIGH PRESSURE OVER FLORIDA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST.
THE DAY WILL BE RELATIVELY QUIET WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS LATE
AND COOL TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM AROUND 50 TO THE NORTH TO UPPER
50S ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. OVERNIGHT...AS CHANNELED VORT ENERGY
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST ALOFT...A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND TRACK EASTWARD TO THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. BY LATE IN THE NIGHT...MODELS SHOW VARYING
PRECIPITATION RESPONSE WITH THE SYSTEM. THE BULK OF THE SOLUTIONS
KEEP LAND AREAS PRIMARILY DRY WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE RAINFALL
OVER THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE THE MAIN
HOLDOUT BY SPREADING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. HAVE FAVORED THE CONSENSUS SOLUTIONS AND KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS OFFSHORE. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN THROUGH THE NIGHT AND LOWS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOW 30S NORTH TO THE LOW 40S SOUTH.

FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY
FROM THE REGION FRIDAY MORNING AND THEN FOCUS TURNS TO THE MONSTER
AREA OF COLD 1046 MB HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM CANADA AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS HIGH WILL PUSH A STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONT INTO
THE REGION ON SATURDAY. PLENTIFUL DRY AIR WILL ENCOMPASS THE REGION
INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. FRIDAY HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND LOW
60S SOUTH TO THE LOW/MID 50S ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD IS REASONABLY GOOD AND THE
FORECAST IS PRETTY QUIET UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD. THINGS START OFF
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON BEHIND THE
ARCTIC COLD FRONT. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S...AND
ELEVATED OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN WIND CHILLS FALLING INTO THE
LOW TO MID TEENS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WILL INTRODUCE
A MENTION OF POSSIBLE WIND CHILL ADVISORY CONDITIONS IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THEREAFTER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE THE
PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND NOTEWORTHY RAINFALL
CHANCES WILL IMPACT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND PUSHES A DEVELOPING SYSTEM THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE MONDAY. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE WELL
BELOW NORMAL ON SUNDAY...WITH A MODERATING TREND TO NEAR NORMAL
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH...OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY WITH GALES
OVER OFFSHORE WATERS ATOP WARMER OCEAN TEMPS. LATEST GUIDANCE
SHOWS THAT GUSTS MAY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT OVER 20-60 NM GEORGIA
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND WHILE CONDITIONS APPEAR GOOD FOR
JETTING...WE SUSPECT FREQUENT GUSTS TO GALES WILL BE ON THE WANE
TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES FOR AMZ374
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM A CHOPPY 3 FT CLOSE
TO SHORE TO 5 TO 8 FT BEYOND 20 NM.

DESPITE A DECREASE IN COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...WINDS WILL STILL
FAVOR GOOD OFFSHORE JETTING AND WE MAINTAINED ADVISORIES THROUGH THE
NIGHT FOR ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AN ADVISORY FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS WILL ALSO BE IN EFFECT ONCE THE GALE WARNING IS LOWERED.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE
REGION ON THURSDAY AND A WEAK ARE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH THROUGH
THE WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY. OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE QUIET THROUGH
THIS TIME...THOUGH WINDS COULD APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS FRIDAY AS THE LOW PULLS
AWAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE STRONG ARCTIC
COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
BEHIND THE FRONT AND ADVISORIES WILL ALMOST CERTAINLY BE NEEDED
SATURDAY THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH 30 TO 35 MPH
GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY AS LOW
AS 25-27 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATED FUEL MOISTURE
WAS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING AND WE HAVE OPTED TO
FOREGO ANY FIRE DANGER STATEMENTS AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE BRIEF
WINDOW FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT CONDITIONS ALONG WITH THE DAMP/COLD
FUELS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 100558
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP RATHER BRISK WINDS IN PLACE WITH WIND CHILLS POISED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ATTM IT APPEARS WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE BOTH OUR INLAND AND COASTAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 25 KT
GUSTS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING BLAST OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WILL
YIELD A COLD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S DURING THE DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WITHOUT THE
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH 5-6,000 FT MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 2OS. POSITIVE LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO JUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING PEAK HEATING.

AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST ALONG THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID CLOUDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
THE EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MIXING. A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TEMPS THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE
NEXT TUESDAY.

AN ARCTIC BLAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT TRAVERSES THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A 1048 MB HIGH PUNCHES
SOUTH/SE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CORE
OF THE HIGH REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...THEN PULLS INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EITHER
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE STARTING TO WANE SUNDAY NIGHT. WE/RE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN ON THE DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...BUT
IT/LL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH WHERE HARD FREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FORTUNATE TO EVEN REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S...IF THAT.
WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD FLIRT WITH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER...BUT ALSO THE RISK FOR SOME
PRECIP.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND UP TO 40 KT BEYOND 20 NM. THUS...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR NEAR
SHORE WATERS WITH GALE WARNINGS BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT BEYOND 40 NM NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MARGINAL GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR 34 KT GUSTS...
WHILE ALL OTHER WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BY EARLY FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POWERFUL 1040-1045 MB OR GREATER HIGH THAT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY. WE/LL
MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS YET
AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH 30 TO
35 MPH GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AS LOW AS 25-28 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATE FUEL
MOISTURE IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 100558
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP RATHER BRISK WINDS IN PLACE WITH WIND CHILLS POISED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ATTM IT APPEARS WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE BOTH OUR INLAND AND COASTAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 25 KT
GUSTS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING BLAST OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WILL
YIELD A COLD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S DURING THE DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WITHOUT THE
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH 5-6,000 FT MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 2OS. POSITIVE LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO JUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING PEAK HEATING.

AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST ALONG THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID CLOUDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
THE EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MIXING. A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TEMPS THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE
NEXT TUESDAY.

AN ARCTIC BLAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT TRAVERSES THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A 1048 MB HIGH PUNCHES
SOUTH/SE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CORE
OF THE HIGH REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...THEN PULLS INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EITHER
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE STARTING TO WANE SUNDAY NIGHT. WE/RE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN ON THE DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...BUT
IT/LL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH WHERE HARD FREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FORTUNATE TO EVEN REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S...IF THAT.
WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD FLIRT WITH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER...BUT ALSO THE RISK FOR SOME
PRECIP.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND UP TO 40 KT BEYOND 20 NM. THUS...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR NEAR
SHORE WATERS WITH GALE WARNINGS BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT BEYOND 40 NM NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MARGINAL GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR 34 KT GUSTS...
WHILE ALL OTHER WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BY EARLY FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POWERFUL 1040-1045 MB OR GREATER HIGH THAT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY. WE/LL
MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS YET
AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH 30 TO
35 MPH GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AS LOW AS 25-28 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATE FUEL
MOISTURE IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 100558
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1258 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF REINFORCING COLD FRONTS WILL CROSS THE REGION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EARLY THURSDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO
ANOTHER COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL THEN
MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY. A FRONTAL SYSTEM COULD
IMPACT THE REGION NEXT MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CLEAR SKIES WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING FROM THE
UPPER 20S INLAND TO LOWER 30S BEACHES. THE COMBINATION OF AN
ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT AND ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL
KEEP RATHER BRISK WINDS IN PLACE WITH WIND CHILLS POISED TO DROP
INTO THE UPPER TEENS BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. ATTM IT APPEARS WIND
CHILL VALUES WILL REMAIN ABOVE BOTH OUR INLAND AND COASTAL WIND
CHILL ADVISORY CRITERIA.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE 25 KT
GUSTS ACROSS LAKE MOULTRIE OVERNIGHT. A LAKE WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. A REINFORCING BLAST OF
COLD AIR WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BEHIND A
DRY COLD FRONT. 850 MB TEMPS OF -8 TO -10C ACROSS SOUTHERN SC WILL
YIELD A COLD MORNING ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS ONLY WARMING INTO THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S DURING THE DAY UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WITHOUT THE
DOWNSLOPE WIND COMPONENT...HIGHS WOULD STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF
THE 30S. 30-35 KT GEOSTROPHIC WINDS WITH 5-6,000 FT MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL RESULT IN A WINDY DAY ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH THE CURRENT
FORECAST KEEPS CONDITIONS BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 2OS. POSITIVE LOW-LEVEL
THICKNESS ADVECTION ON THURSDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW
TEMPS TO JUMP INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S DURING PEAK HEATING.

AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE WILL DROP TOWARD THE AREA LATE THURSDAY
NIGHT...PUSHING A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF OUR COAST ALONG THE FRONT. THERE MAY BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING MAINLY OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS TO
SUPPORT LIGHT RAIN FRIDAY MORNING. ELSEWHERE THERE WILL BE
ABUNDANT LOW AND MID CLOUDS BUT LITTLE CHANCE FOR RAIN. THURSDAY
NIGHT LOW TEMPS ARE TRICKY BASED ON THE EXACT LOCATION OF THE LOW
AND TIMING OF THE FRONT. WE BUMPED TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
THE EXPECTATION OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND DECENT LOW-LEVEL
MIXING. A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW ON FRIDAY WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE
TEMPS THOUGH THE CLOUDS WILL SOMEWHAT LIMIT SURFACE HEATING. HIGHS
WILL RANGE FROM LOWER 50S FAR NORTH TO LOWER 60S FAR SOUTH.

LAKE WINDS...CONDITIONS FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF THE LAKE WIND
ADVISORY ON LAKE MOULTRIE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE LARGE SCALE EAST COAST TROUGH WILL PERSIST INTO EARLY
SUNDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE RIDGE LATER SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH AGAIN THE EAST COAST TROUGH IN PLACE
NEXT TUESDAY.

AN ARCTIC BLAST IS STILL EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEHIND AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT THAT TRAVERSES THE REGION SATURDAY...AS A 1048 MB HIGH PUNCHES
SOUTH/SE FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CORE
OF THE HIGH REACHES THE CAROLINAS ON SUNDAY...THEN PULLS INTO THE
ATLANTIC ON MONDAY...GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM EITHER
MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION ARRIVES LATER SATURDAY AND CONTINUES INTO
SUNDAY...BEFORE STARTING TO WANE SUNDAY NIGHT. WE/RE STILL NOT
COMPLETELY CERTAIN ON THE DEGREE OF MAGNITUDE OF THE COLD AIR...BUT
IT/LL CERTAINLY BE COLD ENOUGH WHERE HARD FREEZES ARE ANTICIPATED
MOST INLAND SECTIONS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGHS ON SUNDAY
WILL BE FORTUNATE TO EVEN REACH THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S...IF THAT.
WIND CHILLS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD FLIRT WITH WIND
CHILL ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

WARM ADVECTION IN ADVANCE OF THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL
ALLOW FOR A LITTLE WARMER WEATHER...BUT ALSO THE RISK FOR SOME
PRECIP.

LAKE WINDS...ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
LAKE MOULTRIE THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER LAKE WIND ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR. GUSTY OFFSHORE SURFACE WINDS ANTICIPATED TODAY AFTER MID
MORNING UNTIL NEAR SUNSET. GUSTS TOPPING 25 KT AT TIMES ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...VERY POOR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DUE TO A STRONG
PRESSURE GRADIENT...LOW-LEVEL JETTING AND COLD ADVECTION. WINDS
WILL BE WESTERLY GUSTING UP TO 30 KT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS
AND UP TO 40 KT BEYOND 20 NM. THUS...ADVISORIES CONTINUE FOR NEAR
SHORE WATERS WITH GALE WARNINGS BEYOND 20 NM. SEAS WILL GENERALLY
BE 4-6 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND UP TO 10 FT BEYOND 40 NM NEAR THE GULF
STREAM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
ACROSS THE MARINE COMMUNITY WITH A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN
LOW PRESSURE OFF NEW ENGLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO. A MARGINAL GALE WARNING WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS...PRIMARILY FOR 34 KT GUSTS...
WHILE ALL OTHER WATERS HAVE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MUCH OF
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MUCH BETTER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ON THURSDAY...THEN GIVES WAY TO A COLD FRONT
AND WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BY EARLY FRIDAY. FOR THE MOST PART WINDS
AND SEAS WILL BE BELOW ANY ADVISORY LEVELS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY A POWERFUL 1040-1045 MB OR GREATER HIGH THAT
BUILDS FROM THE PLAINS SATURDAY TO THE EASTERN STATES SUNDAY. WE/LL
MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE AT LEAST SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS YET
AGAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN WEDNESDAY WITH 30 TO
35 MPH GUSTS OVER INTERIOR PORTIONS AND MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AS LOW AS 25-28 PERCENT. FIRE WEATHER AGENCIES INDICATE FUEL
MOISTURE IS TOO HIGH TO WARRANT A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WEDNESDAY.
HOWEVER LATER SHIFTS MAY CONSIDER A FIRE DANGER STATEMENT IF
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CLOSE TO RED FLAG CRITERIA.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW WILL PRODUCE BLOW OUT TIDES NEAR AND DURING
EACH LOW TIDE CYCLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR SCZ045.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR AMZ350-352-
     354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





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