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000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010525
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
125 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WHILE WE HAVE MAINTAINED VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY AT THE
TERMINALS...THERE IS A LOW END CHANCE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE
TO STRATUS AND/OR FOG FROM ABOUT 10-14Z. SINCE WE/RE ONLY
FORECASTING ISOLATED COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA ALONG THE INLAND
PENETRATING SEA BREEZE AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE TERMINALS AROUND
18-20Z WE HAVE KEPT ANY CB CLOUDS AND VCTS OUT OF THE 06Z TAF
CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 010449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010449
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1249 AM EDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LAND BASED CONVECTION HAS FOR THE MOST PART COME TO AN END...WITH
NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION/COOLING TO PROMOTE LARGE SCALE CINH.
INSTEAD WE MIGHT SEE A FEW STRAY SHOWERS FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
SKIRT THE IMMEDIATE SC COASTAL ZONES...BUT COVERAGE IS HELD TO 10
PERCENT. OTHERWISE...PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS WILL THIN
OUT AND/ DISSIPATE WITH TIME. THIS SHOULD NEGATE ANY SIGNIFICANT
COVERAGE OF FOG...ALTHOUGH PATCHY LOW STRATUS CAN OCCUR CLOSER TO
DAYBREAK. ON AVERAGE LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
70S...WITH SOME UPPER 70S ON THE ISLAND COMMUNITIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
UNDER THE CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE.
THERE WILL BE SOME SUBTLE LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010232
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1032 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW MANAGED TO
OVERCOME THE CAP AND RESULTED IN CONVECTION EARLIER THIS EVENING
ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA. OTHER
THAN SOME LINGERING SHOWERS OVER PARTS OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST GA
NEAR THE ALTAMAHA RIVER...THE CONVECTION HAS GENERALLY DISSIPATED.
ANY REMAINING SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AROUND MIDNIGHT...OR
SHORTLY THEREAFTER. THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 010017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW
HAS MANAGED TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
STORMS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HAS KEPT COASTAL
AREAS RAIN-FREE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 010017
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
817 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING DEPICTS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED JUST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST. MEANWHILE THE LATEST
MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE
EASTERN SC MIDLANDS INTO SOUTHEAST GA...WHERE A WEAK MESO-LOW
APPEARS TO BE SITUATED ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

SYNOPTIC FORCING ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH AND NEAR THE MESO-LOW
HAS MANAGED TO OVERCOME THE CAP AND CONVECTION CONTINUES THIS
EVENING ACROSS FAR INLAND SOUTHEAST SC AND MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GA.
THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND HOWEVER...AND
THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EVENING AS
STORMS EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE. CLOSER TO THE COAST...THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AND A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING HAS KEPT COASTAL
AREAS RAIN-FREE AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY SHOWERS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE COASTAL CORRIDOR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS AND CONTINUE THROUGH
DAYBREAK.

TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR
OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY FOR SUB-VFR CONDITIONS IN LOW
STRATUS AND/OR PATCHY FOG TOWARD DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...BUT
OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS
AND KSAV THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 311921
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
321 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL
STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED
BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND. A STRONGER COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE MAIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON HAS DEVELOPED WELL
WEST OF INTERSTATE 95 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FAR INLAND ZONES.
LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A MESO-LOW FEATURE TO THE SOUTHWEST
OF THE FORECAST AREA THAT IS LIKELY PROVIDING SUFFICIENT
CONVERGENCE TO OVERCOME AN OTHERWISE CAPPED ENVIRONMENT UNDER DEEP
LAYER RIDGING. THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE APPEARS TO BE STEADILY
DECREASING. MODEL SOLUTIONS INSTEAD SUGGEST THAT THE ONGOING
INLAND ACTIVITY WILL PROVIDE THE MOST COVERAGE DURING THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS AND POSSIBLY PERSIST BEYOND SUNSET DUE TO ITS
NON-DIURNAL FORCING MECHANISM. WILL MAINTAIN JUST SLIGHT RAIN
CHANCES FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA...EXCEPT FOR CHANCE
POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST ZONES WHERE COVERAGE IS CURRENTLY
HIGHEST. WILL ADVERTISE THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
LINGER UNTIL MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE
GEORGIA AREAS...HOWEVER SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS MAY END MENTION OF
RAIN EARLIER IF TRENDS DICTATE. THE BEST SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL EVENTUALLY TRANSITION TO THE MARINE ZONES AFTER
MIDNIGHT AND THROUGH DAYBREAK MONDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW TO MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A TYPICAL LATE SUMMER PATTERN WILL
PREVAIL. THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND
ON THE PERIPHERY OF A SPRAWLING ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE.
ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EACH
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ALONG THE PROGRESSIVE SEA BREEZE AND
NEAR AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. PWATS AROUND 2
INCHES COULD WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITHIN
SLOW-MOVING THUNDERSTORMS. IN GENERAL...THE CAP ASSOCIATED WITH THE
UPPER RIDGE COULD LIMIT DEPTH/PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOIST
UPDRAFTS...IN TURN LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.
HOWEVER...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST OR TWO
WHERE CELL/BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS OCCUR.

HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
100-105F WILL BE COMMON EACH AFTERNOON. SUBTLE THICKNESS TRENDS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHTLY LONGER DURATION OFFSHORE FLOW SUGGEST
THAT TUESDAY COULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. NIGHTTIME LOWS
IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S...EXCEPT NEAR 80F ON THE BEACHES...WILL
PREVAIL.

A WEAKENING COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH COULD ENHANCE
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE PROGRESS OF THE FRONT IS INSUFFICIENT TO
JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT FORECAST CHANGES. OTHERWISE...BECAUSE DEPARTURES
FROM THIS PERSISTENCE SCENARIO WILL OCCUR ON THE MESOSCALE AND
SHOULD REMAIN SUBTLE...MOST ADJUSTMENTS WILL OCCUR WITHIN NEAR TERM
FORECAST UPDATES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW CHANCES EXIST FOR EARLY MORNING
FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER THE
CONTINUED INFLUENCE OF A SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL
BE SOME NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JETTING THAT INCREASES SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS UP TO 10 TO 15 KT...WHILE SEAS REMAIN AROUND 2
OR 3 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND DURING NOCTURNAL SURGING OF S/SW. SEAS WILL
GENERALLY BE 1-3 FT...HIGHEST BEYOND 20 NM.

EACH MORNING ESPECIALLY MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A WEAK PRESSURE
PATTERN/LIGHT WINDS INCLUDING A LAND BREEZE COULD PROMOTE MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY FORMATION WHICH IN TURN COULD SUPPORT WATERSPOUTS.

A COLD FRONT SHOULD STALL AND DISSIPATE NORTH OF THE WATERS DURING
THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIME FRAME AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE/NO IMPACT ON
WINDS/SEAS. HOWEVER...THE EVENTUAL POSITION OF THE FRONT REMAINS
SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT...INTRODUCING SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY LATE THIS
WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN ACTIVITY BY 1 PM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESO-LOW WITHIN BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE LATEST TRENDS FOLLOW FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO
103 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311749
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
149 PM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE
SEABREEZE IN NORTHERN CHARLESTON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON...THE
MAIN ACTIVITY BY 1 PM IS JUST SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WHERE MESOANALYSIS HINTS AT A MESO-LOW WITHIN BETTER
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THESE LATEST TRENDS FOLLOW FORECAST RAIN
CHANCES WELL...AND WILL CONTINUE TO INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS/WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH BETTER SCATTERED COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A STRONG INFLUENCE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN
RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER
DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO
103 DEGREES IN MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN
JUST OUTSIDE OF THE TAF SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS...PREFER TO MAINTAIN AN OPTIMISTIC
FORECAST WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. SOUTH
WINDS INITIATING WITH THE SEABREEZE THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT AND LIKELY REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH LATE MORNING MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW 10 KT
OR LESS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN SEABREEZE CIRCULATION.
MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311504
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1104 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CUMULUS CLOUDS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI
COUNTY REGION AND DOWN THE COAST INTO THE SAVANNAH METRO AREA BY
LATE MORNING...EVIDENCE OF THE TREND FOR INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. CONVERGENCE PROVIDED BY BOTH THE INLAND PENETRATING
SEABREEZE AND BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE...SHOULD ALLOW FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WEAK
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY AFTERNOON. FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR
RAIN WILL BE ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...EVENTUALLY
SHIFTING FARTHER INLAND AND BECOMING A BIT MORE CONCENTRATED
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHWEST ZONES. DEEP LAYER RIDGING WILL REMAIN A
STRONG INFLUENCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES...AND THUS ANY
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHALLOW. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE WELL ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY
COOLER COASTLINE. CONSIDERING HIGHER DEWPOINTS THIS
AFTERNOON...HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL APPROACH 100 TO 103 DEGREES IN
MANY LOCATIONS.

TONIGHT...NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL
ACTIVITY COULD ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND KEEP
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO INITIATE AGAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND
AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY
LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER
AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY FALL
INTO THE LOW AND MID 70S INLAND FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME
UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS CURRENT THINKING IS THAT ANY ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL
REMAIN JUST INLAND OF THE TAF SITES. THERE IS ONLY A SMALL
POTENTIAL FOR SOME LATE NIGHT FOG AND/OR STRATUS. AS A
RESULT...ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT BOTH KCHS AND
KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL COVER MUCH OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND
EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LATE
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MOSTLY GENTLE SOUTHEAST FLOW THIS
AFTERNOON WITHIN THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. MUCH OF THE WAVE
ENERGY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF 2 TO 3 FT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING WILL DISSIPATE
BY THE AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS
FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES SUGGEST SOME POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN UNDER A CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE WILL BE
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
WINDS UP TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT.
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 311138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS. THUS WE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
ABOUT NOONTIME...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE AREN/T ANY NOTICEABLE CLOUD
LINES EARLY THIS MORNING SO WE/RE NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BOUNDARIES FORM OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT EITHER WAY.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311138
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO RISK FOR ANY SHRA OR TSRA AT THE AIRFIELDS TODAY AND
TONIGHT...WITH ONLY SMALL PROBABILITIES OF SOME LATE NIGHT FOG
AND/OR STRATUS. THUS WE ANTICIPATE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT
BOTH KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THROUGH
ABOUT NOONTIME...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH
THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...THERE AREN/T ANY NOTICEABLE CLOUD
LINES EARLY THIS MORNING SO WE/RE NOT INCLINED TO ISSUE A MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENT AT THIS TIME. IF ANY BOUNDARIES FORM OVER THE
MARINE AREA LATER THIS MORNING WE/LL HAVE TO RE-EVALUATE THE
SITUATION. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN ON THE ALERT EITHER WAY.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 311057
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. WE/LL WAIT TO GET A PEAK
AT THE 12Z RADIOSONDE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 311057
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
657 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE SYNOPTIC FLOW HAS VEERED A
LITTLE TOO MUCH TOWARD AN OFFSHORE FETCH...THAT ANY
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL STAY OVER THE ATLANTIC. FURTHER TO THE WEST
WE FIND WEAKENING CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN ONGOING ALL NIGHT IN AN
AREA OF CONVERGENCE IN PARTS OF THE COLUMBIA AND PEACHTREE CITY
FORECAST ZONES. THIS CONVECTION WILL DIE BY MID-MORNING AND SHOULD
STAY OUTSIDE THE CWFA. WE THEN LOOK FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA
WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER 3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL
THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY
LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-103 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. WE/LL WAIT TO GET A PEAK
AT THE 12Z RADIOSONDE DATA AND THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE
BEFORE DECIDING WHETHER OR NOT TO ISSUE A MARINE WEATHER
STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310801
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STATIONARY NORTH OF THE REGION LATE
IN THE WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A SPRAWLING BERMUDA-AZORES SURFACE HIGH WILL EXTEND WEST
ACROSS THE REGION...WHILE A NEARLY VERTICAL STACKED ANTICYCLONE
PERSISTS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE REST OF THE TROPOSPHERE. FOR THE
MOST PART THIS WILL KEEP ANY SHORT WAVE FEATURES OUT OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH A WEAK CAPPING MECHANISM TO PREVAIL. DESPITE
THIS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE WITHIN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE...AND THE TYPICAL MESO-SCALE BOUNDARIES SUCH AS THE
SEA BREEZE...LAKE BREEZES AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARIES.
THIS COMBINATION WILL HAVE AMPLE INSTABILITY TO HELP TRIGGER
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
THE BEST CHANCES /AROUND 20 PERCENT/ WILL BE OVER CHARLESTON AND
FAR EASTERN BERKELEY COUNTY THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
INFLUX OF MARINE AIR WITHIN THE BEST SOUTHERLY CONVERGENT FLOW.
THEN ISOLATED CONVECTION LOOKS TO FORM ALONG THE SEA BREEZE DURING
THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE
US-17 CORRIDOR...BEFORE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FORM DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR SE GA WHERE 30 POPS WILL BE COMMON AFTER
3 OR 4 PM. SINCE THE OVERALL THERMODYNAMICS AREN/T THAT IMPRESSIVE
ANY SEVERE RISK IS EXTREMELY LOW...BUT NOT ZERO.

AS THE MORNING CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM THIN OUT AND
DISSIPATE WE LOOK FOR ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY...WITH 850
TEMPS UP NEAR 18-19C AND THE 1000-850 MB THICKNESS AS MUCH AS
1425-1435 METERS. THIS SUPPORTS MAX TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE
90S...GREATEST TO THE WEST OF I-95 IN SC AND WEST OF US-301 IN
GA. AN ONSHORE SYNOPTIC FLOW AND THE SEA BREEZE INFLUENCES WILL
HOLD COASTAL TEMPS DOWN TO THE MID AND UPPER 80S. ASSOCIATED HEAT
INDICES WON/T BE UNBEARABLE...BUT STILL PEAKING AT 100-105 DEGREES.

TONIGHT...THE NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION AND COOLING EFFECTS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR CONVECTION IN THE EVENING TO WANE. HOWEVER...CONVECTION
MAY ARRIVE FROM SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER AND THIS COULD KEEP
SHOWERS/T-STORMS GOING UNTIL MIDNIGHT TO 1 AM ACROSS PARTS OF SE
GA. LATE NIGHT ATLANTIC SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD AGAIN OCCUR IN
ASSOCIATION WITH SOUTHERLY TRAJECTORIES AND AMPLE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE. NOT YET SOLD ON ANY LATE NIGHT FOG...GIVEN THAT
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS COULD LINGER AND THE SOIL TEMPS ARE STILL
SO WARM. WE/LL ONLY BE ABLE TO MUSTER LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S INLAND
FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHILE SOME UPPER 70S WILL BE COMMON ON THE
BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE WEST/EAST ORIENTED
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE POSITIONED DIRECTLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST
COAST THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PLACE THE AREA BETWEEN THE
BEST OF WESTERLIES AND AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTHWEST AND A
TUTT-LIKE FEATURE TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE SURFACE
PATTERN WILL BE THE DEFINITION OF TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS WITH
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE LACK OF ANY
LARGER SCALE FEATURES TO HANG ONTO MEANS THAT PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY MESOSCALE PROCESSES...PRIMARILY THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO BE UNIMPRESSIVE
WITH SOME WEAK CAPPING NOTED AND ONLY 1000-1500 J/KG OF CAPE. MODELS
HAVE LIMITED COVERAGE OF DIURNAL CONVECTION AND AS SUCH POPS HAVE
BEEN LIMITED TO THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...FAVORING SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
WHERE SOME SLIGHTLY BETTER MOISTURE PROFILES WILL RESIDE.
OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING EVENING CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AND BECOME CONFINED TO FAR INLAND AREAS.
OTHERWISE...THE FORECAST IS DRY. LOOK FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S
AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL NOT UNDERGO ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE WILL EVOLVE A BIT...PERHAPS WEAKENING A BIT OVER THE
AREA ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL BEGIN TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD BACK TO THE
EAST BY WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE...THE EXPANSIVE SUBTROPICAL HIGH
OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN THE MOST NOTEWORTHY FEATURE AS
IT CONTINUES TO EXTEND WESTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST WHICH STILL FEATURES DIURNAL
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NO NOTABLE CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST AS THE
PATTERN CONTINUES TO FAVOR TYPICAL SUMMERTIME CONDITIONS.
ALOFT...THE PRIMARY FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE LARGE MID/UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE CONUS. SIMILARLY...AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE. THE FORECAST REFLECTS DIURNAL ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. FORECAST
HIGHS ARE PRIMARILY IN THE LOW 90S AND LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH 06Z
MONDAY AT THE AIRFIELDS. THUS VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...A LARGE BERMUDA AZORES HIGH COVERS MUCH OF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AND WILL EXTEND WEST ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. AFTER LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING...THE ANTICYCLONIC CURVATURE TO
THE ISOBARS AND THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WILL GENERATE MOSTLY
GENTLE SE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. MUCH OF THE WAVE ENERGY WILL BE IN
THE FORM OF 2-3 FOOT SWELLS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/T-STORMS
THIS MORNING WILL COME TO AN END FOR THE AFTERNOON.

WATERSPOUTS...CONDITIONS APPEAR QUITE GOOD FOR WATERSPOUTS THIS
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...DUE TO LIGHT WIND FIELDS...AMPLE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...PLUS FAVORABLE LAPSE RATES AND
DOWNDRAFT STRENGTH THAT ISN/T TOO STRONG. HOWEVER...WE PREFER TO
WAIT UNTIL WE RECEIVE EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGES TO SEE IF WE
HAVE ANY DEFINED BOUNDARIES RATHER THAN JUST ISOLATED CONVECTION
FOR THE SPOUTS TO DEVELOP UPON...BEFORE ADDRESSING THIS SITUATION
IN A MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT.

TONIGHT...NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH CONTINUED
INFLUENCE FROM THE SUB-TROPICAL ATLANTIC RIDGE. THERE IS HOWEVER
SOME NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING THAT BUMPS SOUTH AND SW WINDS UP
TO 10-15 KT...BUT SEAS STILL HOLD AROUND 2 OR 3 FT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL REDEVELOP OVERNIGHT.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE PATTERN WILL FEATURE A PERSISTENT AREA
OF SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE DRIVING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LESS THAN 15
KT...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY STRONGER PERIODS POSSIBLE MAINLY WITH THE
AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND NOCTURNAL SURGING. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE
UP TO 2 FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
121 AM EDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD REVOLVES AROUND TWO MAIN WEATHER
PHENOMENON. THE FIRST IS SOME MARINE BASED SHOWERS/T-STORMS THAT
WILL ATTEMPT TO ADVECT ONSHORE WITHIN THE SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW INTO CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTIES. WE HAVE CARRIED 20
POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE ATLANTIC
AND MOVES ONSHORE. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS SKIRTING
THE REST OF THE COASTAL ZONES...RAIN CHANCES ARE HELD UNDER 15
PERCENT IN THESE LOCATIONS. THE SECOND WEATHER CONCERN WOULD BE
THE POSSIBILITY OF FOG CLOSER TO SUNRISE. THE GROUND IS STILL TOO
WARM AND WE HAVEN/T HAD MUCH RAINFALL THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS.
THUS WE WILL REFRAIN FROM ADDING ANY AT THIS TIME AND MAINTAIN A
WEATHER WATCH.

WARM AND MUGGY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE ONSHORE FETCH WILL
HOLD TEMPS SEVERAL DEGREES SEASONAL NORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE FOG AND/OR STRATUS CLOSE TO
DAYBREAK AT THE TERMINALS...ODDS FAVOR BOTH KCHS AND KSAV TO
REMAIN VFR THROUGH 06Z MONDAY. LITTLE TO NO CHANCE FOR ANY IMPACTS
FROM SHRA/TSRA THROUGH THE VALID TAF CYCLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TONIGHT...SE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE
SOUTHERLY...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...HIGHEST ACROSS AMZ374. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND T-STORMS WILL PREVAIL AS THEY DRIFT NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 310227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 310227
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1027 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
THE FOCUS FOR ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSITION
TO OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 302356
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
756 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION
TONIGHT...WHILE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS AT THE SURFACE.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FOCUS FOR ANY
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD TRANSITION TO OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO ADVECT INLAND ALONG SOME OF
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA...TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH THE
INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID TO LOW 70S AWAY
FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED BENEATH AN INVERSION
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...AND COULD LEAD TO THE FORMATION
OF LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG. MOS GUIDANCE IS MOST PESSIMISTIC AT
KSAV WHERE THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
FROM 08-13Z...BUT PREFER TO KEEP KCHS VFR AND JUST HINT AT SOME
REDUCED 6SM VISIBILITIES AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS IN THE SAME
08-13Z TIME FRAME UNTIL CONFIDENCE INCREASES. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z
MONDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW WILL STEADILY VEER TO MORE SOUTHERLY
OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT. SEAS WILL RANGE
FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ/WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 301918
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY
AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
16 IN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHT ENHANCED...BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ALL LAND AREAS NO LATER THAN
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAKING A RUN FOR THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID
TO LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY FURTHER
ACTIVITY WILL BE TRACKING WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE INLAND-
PROGRESSING SEABREEZE. AFTER ANY WEAK CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH
SUNSET...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER SREF AND NAM MODEL VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING COVERAGE. WILL ADD 6SM BR AND SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS IN BOTH TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z...ALLOWING SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS TO BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC AND INCLUDE ACTUAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IF TRENDS DICTATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY VEER TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT
HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR/BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 301918
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
318 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD DISSIPATE OVER OR NEAR THE REGION LATE
NEXT WEEK...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY DRIVEN BY DIURNAL HEATING/INSTABILITY
AND SEABREEZE CONVERGENCE WILL GENERALLY DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET.
THERE COULD BE A FEW MORE PERSISTENT SHOWERS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
16 IN GEORGIA WHERE MOISTURE IS SLIGHT ENHANCED...BEFORE RAIN
CHANCES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ALL LAND AREAS NO LATER THAN
MIDNIGHT. THE BEST RAIN POTENTIAL WILL THEN TRANSITION TO THE
MARINE ZONES DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH PERHAPS AN
ISOLATED SHOWER MAKING A RUN FOR THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY. INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BECOME
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION WITHIN CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SHALLOW AND PATCHY AT BEST. LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO TREND MORE MILD...REACHING THE MID
TO LOW 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UNDER DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE...TYPICALLY HOT AND HUMID
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. MARINE MOISTURE
COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
COASTAL COUNTIES EACH MORNING...THEN DIURNAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FIRE EACH AFTERNOON PRIMARILY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN DISSIPATE PER DIURNAL COOLING/STABILIZATION EACH NIGHT.

DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...LIMITED POPS TO
SLIGHT/CHANCE/CHANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD. 30/12Z GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
THAT THIS RIDGE COULD WEAKEN SLIGHTLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...PERHAPS
SUPPORTING SOMEWHAT GREATER SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE. HOWEVER...
THESE CHANGES ARE SUBTLE...AND GIVEN THE PERSISTENT CAP DEPICTED BY
MODEL SOUNDINGS SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER POPS ARE NOT JUSTIFIED MONDAY
AND TUESDAY.

AS PWATS INCREASE TOWARD 2 INCHES...THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN WILL INCREASE...ESPECIALLY MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD REMAIN LOW THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OTHERWISE...DAILY HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
UPPER 60S TO MID 70S WILL PRODUCE HEAT INDEX VALUES AROUND 100F EACH
DAY. NIGHTTIME TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE 70S MOST
LOCATIONS...PERHAPS REMAINING AROUND 80F ON THE BEACHES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY FURTHER
ACTIVITY WILL BE TRACKING WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE INLAND-
PROGRESSING SEABREEZE. AFTER ANY WEAK CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH
SUNSET...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER SREF AND NAM MODEL VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING COVERAGE. WILL ADD 6SM BR AND SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS IN BOTH TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z...ALLOWING SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS TO BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC AND INCLUDE ACTUAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IF TRENDS DICTATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW LATE THIS AFTERNOON WILL STEADILY VEER TO
MORE SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT...WHILE SPEEDS REMAIN IN THE 5 TO 10 KT
RANGE. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT...EXCEPT FOR SOME BRIEF 4 FT
HEIGHTS BEYOND 40 NM.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY THRESHOLDS.

SUNDAY...CONDITIONS COULD ONCE AGAIN BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE MORNING. OTHERWISE...LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS
INCLUDING THE LAND BREEZE WILL GIVE WAY TO S/SE WINDS LESS THAN 15
KT AS THE SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS WILL TURN TOWARD
THE S/SW AT 10-15 KT. MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...S/SW WINDS WILL
PREVAIL. ENHANCED BY THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AS HIGH AS 15 KT AND
BY NOCTURNAL SURGES AS HIGH AS 15-20 KT. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 1-3
FT ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND AS HIGH AS 3-4 FT FOR THE OUTER
WATERS.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR/BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THE
12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVING
RECOVERED TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES AND MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB. AS A RESULT...ABUNDANT CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND INLAND
OF THE SEABREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
ISOLATED AND RATHER BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED GENERALLY ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...WITH A FEW MARINE SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTLINE. HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER
RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. THUS EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY FURTHER
ACTIVITY WILL BE TRACKING WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE INLAND-
PROGRESSING SEABREEZE. AFTER ANY WEAK CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH
SUNSET...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER SREF AND NAM MODEL VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING COVERAGE. WILL ADD 6SM BR AND SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS IN BOTH TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z...ALLOWING SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS TO BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC AND INCLUDE ACTUAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IF TRENDS DICTATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WITHIN ANY LINES OF CONVERGENCE AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY SHORT-FUSED CONCERNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THE
12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVING
RECOVERED TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES AND MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB. AS A RESULT...ABUNDANT CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND INLAND
OF THE SEABREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON WITHIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW.
ISOLATED AND RATHER BRIEF SHOWERS HAVE INITIATED GENERALLY ALONG
AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE...WITH A FEW MARINE SHOWERS APPROACHING
THE SOUTHERN GEORGIA COASTLINE. HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY
AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE CONFINED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE
FORECAST AREA...AWAY FROM THE STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER
RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER
COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. THUS EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN BRIEF AND LIGHT THIS
AFTERNOON...AND CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT ANY FURTHER
ACTIVITY WILL BE TRACKING WEST OF THE TERMINALS WITH THE INLAND-
PROGRESSING SEABREEZE. AFTER ANY WEAK CONVECTION DIMINISHES WITH
SUNSET...THE NEXT AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL
DEVELOPMENT OF LOW STRATUS OR FOG. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER SREF AND NAM MODEL VISIBILITY SOLUTIONS ARE
UNIMPRESSIVE REGARDING COVERAGE. WILL ADD 6SM BR AND SCATTERED
MVFR CLOUDS IN BOTH TAFS BETWEEN 06Z AND 13Z...ALLOWING SUBSEQUENT
FORECASTS TO BECOME MORE PESSIMISTIC AND INCLUDE ACTUAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS IF TRENDS DICTATE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT.
THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WITHIN ANY LINES OF CONVERGENCE AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY SHORT-FUSED CONCERNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 301454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THE
12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVING
RECOVERED TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES AND MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SKY COVER IS EVIDENT IN LATE MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST WITHIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN
INITIATED AS EARLY AS 10 AM EDT IN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...LIKELY ALONG A SUBTLE LINE OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN
SPREAD ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID
90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. THUS EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE ADDING EXPLICIT
MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WITHIN ANY LINES OF CONVERGENCE AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY SHORT-FUSED CONCERNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 301454
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1054 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST AREA OBSERVATIONS INDICATE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY
RUNNING SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THE
12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVING
RECOVERED TO ABOUT 1.2 INCHES AND MORE NOTABLE MOISTURE BELOW 800
MB. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SKY COVER IS EVIDENT IN LATE MORNING
SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH CUMULUS CLOUDS SPREADING FROM EAST TO
WEST WITHIN A LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW. A FEW SHOWERS HAVE EVEN
INITIATED AS EARLY AS 10 AM EDT IN SOUTH CAROLINA ZONES WEST OF
INTERSTATE 95...LIKELY ALONG A SUBTLE LINE OF CONVERGENCE. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS/BRIEF
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST...AND THEN
SPREAD ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE BEST INSTABILITY AND DEEPER MOISTURE WILL LIKELY BE
CONFINED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE FORECAST AREA...AWAY FROM THE
STRONGEST INFLUENCE OF DEEP LAYER RIDGING. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
ONCE AGAIN RISE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID
90S AWAY FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE.

TONIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
WITH SUNSET. THUS EXPECT MAINLY DRY WEATHER OVERNIGHT...WITH
PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS
AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE ADDING EXPLICIT
MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL GUIDANCE IS AGAIN
HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER
MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD THIS SCENARIO WITH
LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A RELATIVELY LIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LINGER OVER THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT. A LIGHT AND MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
PREVAIL AT LESS THAN 15 KT...WITH SEAS RANGING FROM 2 TO 3 FT. THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...WHEN COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT
LIGHT WINDS...WILL SUPPORT A SMALL POTENTIAL FOR WATERSPOUTS
WITHIN ANY LINES OF CONVERGENCE AND/OR SHOWER ACTIVITY. MARINE
WEATHER STATEMENTS WILL ADDRESS ANY SHORT-FUSED CONCERNS.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...WMS/BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 301205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO
GENERATE MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD INITIATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAIN SHIFTS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES...RISING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE
ADDING EXPLICIT MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 301205
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
805 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO
GENERATE MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND
PERHAPS A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND
BETTER INSTABILITY IS POSITIONED FROM SOUTHWEST GEORGIA TO
NORTHEAST FLORIDA AND MAINLY SOUTH OF THE ALTAMAHA RIVER
REGION...WITH CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ACROSS THE LOCAL FORECAST AREA
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD INITIATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST...BEFORE THE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAIN SHIFTS
INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
20 PERCENT RANGE. WARMEST TEMPERATURES WILL BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA
ZONES...RISING SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER...WITH PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER AT
THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH SEABREEZE AND
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS...COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AT BOTH
TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...PREFER TO MONITOR RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY TO DETERMINE TIMING AND COVERAGE POTENTIAL BEFORE
ADDING EXPLICIT MENTION OF ANY IMPACTS TO EITHER TAF. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS AGAIN HINTING AT THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG
DEVELOPMENT AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND WILL CONSIDER TRENDING TOWARD
THIS SCENARIO WITH LATER TAF ISSUANCES.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
EXPECT LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SOUTHEAST FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND
SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS/
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...WMS/
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA NEARING DAYBREAK.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLUX MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME MORE IN THE
WAY OF DAYBREAK CUMULUS ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO GENERATE
MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
IS POSITIONED FROM SW GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION...CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAINS SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO OUR
POP/TEMP SCHEMES IN OUR FORECAST TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS OVER INLAND
GEORGIA ZONES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
350 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...MAINLY CLEAR SKIES MAY GIVE WAY TO SOME PATCHES OF STRATUS
AND FOG ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INLAND FORECAST AREA NEARING DAYBREAK.
WEAK LOW LEVEL ONSHORE FLUX MAY BEGIN TO GENERATE SOME MORE IN THE
WAY OF DAYBREAK CUMULUS ALONG THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS.

WHILE THE EXPANSIVE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE HOLDS FIRM TODAY AND TONIGHT
THE ATTENTION TURNS TO THERMODYNAMICS AND THE MESOSCALE TO GENERATE
MAINLY SHALLOW SEA BREEZE AND BOUNDARY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A FEW TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER INSTABILITY
IS POSITIONED FROM SW GEORGIA TO NE FLORIDA AND MAINLY S OF THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER REGION...CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE ACROSS OUR REGION IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN MAINLY ISOLATED. THE WEAK ONSHORE TRAJECTORIES
AND ONSET OF THE SEA BREEZE LATE MORNING COULD KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BEFORE RISK FOR SPOTTY RAINS SHIFT INLAND
DURING THE AFTERNOON. WE MADE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO OUR
POP/TEMP SCHEMES IN OUR FORECAST TODAY. WARMEST TEMPS OVER INLAND
GEORGIA ZONES SOLIDLY IN THE MID 90S. POPS GENERALLY IN THE 20
PERCENT RANGE.

TONIGHT...MAINLY DRY WEATHER ON TAP...PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER
AT THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND ANOTHER CHANCE
FOR PATCHY FOG ACROSS INLAND AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE CENTER OF THE UPPER RIDGE ALOFT AND
ASSOCIATED ANTICYCLONE WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND REMAIN NEARLY RIGHT
ON TOP OF THE FORECAST AREA. SIMILARLY...THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL
FEATURE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE EAST AND
CONTROLLING THE LOW LEVELS. MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL CONTINUE
TO SEE VERY DRY MID/UPPER LEVELS...THOUGH BETTER MOISTURE WILL EXIST
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. SOUNDINGS
SHOW A NOTABLE CAP IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER ACROSS THE SOUTH CAROLINA
ZONES. I HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO THE POP FORECAST...WHICH STILL
FEATURES CHANCES POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND ALONG THE
SAVANNAH RIVER...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ELSEWHERE DURING PEAK
HEATING. OVERNIGHT...ANY LINGERING ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH IN THE
EVENING WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCES OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. LOOK
FOR HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN QUITE TYPICAL OF
SUMMERTIME WITH RIDGING ALOFT AND ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE. THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK PERIOD...THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY WEST/EAST ORIENTED AS IT RETROGRADES A BIT BACK TO THE
WEST. THE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE AREA...AS WELL
AS ANY EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL GRADUALLY BE LESS
HOSTILE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AS MOISTURE IMPROVES ACROSS THE
REGION. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE LACK OF LARGER SCALE
FORCING...PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL LARGELY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE AND SURFACE HEATING
PROCESSES. THIS WILL KEEP THE COVERAGE IN THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RANGE EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT IS QUITE
LOW DURING THIS TIME...BUT AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DUE TO MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS
IN THE MID/UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE GOING FORECAST IN THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE SOUTHEAST REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE
RIDGE ALOFT...WHICH WILL ACTUALLY EXPAND BACK EASTWARD AND
STRENGTHEN IN THE MID/LATE TIME FRAME. ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
STILL BE THE PRIMARY SURFACE FEATURE AS IT EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT A FRONT WILL
ATTEMPT TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE PERIOD...BUT GIVEN
THE OVERALL PATTERN THE EXPECTATION IS FOR IT TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE
AREA. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO...LOW
CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A CONTINUATION OF FAIRLY TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY AND TONIGHT.
LIGHT MOSTLY ONSHORE SE FLOW LESS THAN 15 KT AND SEAS 2 TO 3 FT.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED TO THE
EAST OF THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL DRIVE A PERSISTENT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL
BE LESS THAN 15 KT. THEY COULD INCREASE INTO THE 15-20 KT RANGE AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE ALONG THE LAND/SEA
INTERFACE AND IN NOCTURNAL SURGES. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE 2 FT
ACROSS THE NEARSHORE WATERS AND 2-3 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS. OVERALL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300500
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
100 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PATCHES OF STRATOCU...
STRATUS...AND CIRRUS.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT REMAINS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE
RECENT SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG ALONG
THE NW TIER...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3 FT...MAINLY
IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300157
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA
RAINFREE AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SPUR A FEW LOW
TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONES. FOR NOW
WE HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS...THUS NO MENTION IN
THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

A FEW MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE.
BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG ALONG
THE NW TIER...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 300157
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
957 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE WILL
PREVAIL...WHICH LOOKS TO KEEP THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE CWFA
RAINFREE AGAIN TONIGHT. HOWEVER...A LIGHT SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC
FLOW MAY PRODUCE JUST ENOUGH COASTAL CONVERGENCE TO SPUR A FEW LOW
TOPPED MARINE SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ALONG OUR COASTAL ZONES. FOR NOW
WE HAVE LIMITED POPS TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS...THUS NO MENTION IN
THE CURRENT GRIDDED FORECAST.

A FEW MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS WILL ADVECT ONSHORE
AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS MAY ARRIVE NEAR
THE ALTAMAHA RIVER FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE.
BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE
SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTENED SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM FRIDAY MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE DENSE POCKETS OF FOG ALONG
THE NW TIER...BUT AREAL EXTENT IS NOT GREAT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE AT
THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV WILL BE
VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW STRATUS
AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH TERMINALS
FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS LOOK TO STAY
INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW.
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON SATURDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE. BUT THERE IS
NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 15 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 292324
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS
CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW AND PATCHY STRATUS SETS IN LATE. BUT ON
AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE VALID 24 HOUR TAF CYCLE AT KCHS AND KSAV
WILL BE VFR THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. COULD SEE A FEW HOURS OF LOW
STRATUS AND/OR FOG WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS AT EITHER OR BOTH
TERMINALS FROM ABOUT 08-13Z SATURDAY. BUT THE WORST CONDITIONS
LOOK TO STAY INLAND FROM THE AIRSTRIPS WITH A SE AND SOUTH
SYNOPTIC FLOW. ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA MAY POSE A BRIEF CONCERN ON
SATURDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE INLAND PENETRATING SEA BREEZE.
BUT THERE IS NO JUSTIFICATION TO INCLUDE ANYTHING AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 292219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW. BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 292219
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
619 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
MODEST INSTABILITY OVER DORCHESTER AND BERKELEY COUNTIES HAS
TRIGGERED A FEW SHOWERS NEAR AND IN ADVANCE OF THE SEA
BREEZE...WHICH HAS INTERACTED WITH A PRE-EXISTING CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY ALIGNED EAST-WEST FROM THE ATLANTIC. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
FADE WITH SUNSET AS INCREASING CINH TAKES OVER AND NOCTURNAL
COOLING SETS IN. HOWEVER...WEAK CONVERGENCE OFF THE ATLANTIC
OVERNIGHT WITHIN THE SE TO SOUTH SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD AGAIN SPUR A
FEW COASTAL SHOWERS. BUT POPS HAVE BEEN HELD TO 10 PERCENT OR LESS.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DEEP-LAYERED RIDGING AND ITS ASSOCIATED
SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW DIURNAL CUMULUS OVER LAND TO DISSIPATE THIS
EVENING. A FEW NOCTURNAL MARINE CUMULUS AND/OR STRATOCUMULUS CAN
ADVECT ONSHORE AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A LITTLE CONVECTIVE DEBRIS
CLOUDS CAN ARRIVE FROM THE SW. BUT ON AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR OR
PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WILL BE SUFFICIENT.

THE AIR MASS HAS CERTAINLY MOISTEN SINCE YESTERDAY AND LOWS
TONIGHT WON/T BE AS LOW AS RECENT NIGHTS AS A RESULT. LOOK FOR
UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S INLAND...AND MIDDLE 70S NEAR THE INTRA-
COASTAL AND ON THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

CONFIDENCE ON FOG DEVELOPMENT IS FAR FROM IDEAL GIVEN THE RECENT
SPELL OF DRY CONDITIONS...THE WARM GROUND AND MANY AREAS
STRUGGLING TO ACHIEVE THEIR CROSS-OVER TEMP. BUT FAVORABLE
CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS...FOG STABILITY INDICES DOWN IN THE
TEENS IN MANY LOCALES...PERSISTENCE FROM THIS MORNING AND THE
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SUPPORTS AT LEAST PATCHY FOG INLAND
FROM US-17. WE WILL RE-EVALUATE LATER THIS EVENING TO SEE IF WE
NEED TO HIT THE FOG IN GREATER COVERAGE AND OR AT LEAST SOME
PATCHY DENSE FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A RIDGE OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHED ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS WILL BECOME ABSORBED BY A STRONGER 1027 MB HIGH
MOVING OFF NEW ENGLAND LATE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SOME FLUCTUATIONS
IN SE AND SOUTH WINDS THROUGH THE NIGHT...BUT ON AVERAGE NO HIGHER
THAN ABOUT 10 OR 12 KT. SEAS WILL BE NO MORE THAN 2 OR 3
FT...MAINLY IN EASTERLY SWELLS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291930
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PREVAIL THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. A COLD
FRONT COULD APPROACH OR ADVANCE THROUGH THE REGION LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
DIURNAL CUMULUS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG AND INLAND OF THE SEABREEZE
THIS AFTERNOON...EVIDENCE OF THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND SLIGHT
INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TODAY. A PERSISTENT E-W ORIENTED LINE
OF CONVERGENCE COMBINING WITH THE SEABREEZE HAS SUPPORTED ISOLATED
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CHARLESTON AND BERKELEY COUNTY...AS
WELL AS OVER THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. ALTHOUGH THE SHOWERS ARE
GENERALLY SHORT-LIVED DUE TO SUBSIDENCE AND SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR IN
THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...INITIATION OF LIGHT ACTIVITY HAS BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY CONSISTENT TO JUSTIFY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON FOR NORTHERN BERKELEY AND CHARLESTON COUNTIES. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ALL OTHER LOCATIONS UNDER STRONG UPPER
RIDGING.

ANY SCATTERED SKY COVER SHOULD DISSIPATE RATHER QUICKLY WITH THE
LOSS OF HEATING AFTER SUNSET. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOMING
TRAPPED BENEATH THE INVERSION...WHEN COMBINED WITH MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS...COULD SUPPORT AT LEAST PATCHY FOG ACROSS
INLAND AREAS DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S FAR INLAND TO THE LOW 70S CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE REGION WILL RESIDE ON THE PERIPHERY OF
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC AND BENEATH DEEP
LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY NUT STEADILY
INCREASE THROUGH THE PERIOD...BEGINNING WITH LOW LEVELS BUT
EVENTUALLY THROUGH THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE. AS A RESULT...THE
POTENTIAL FOR DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...AND HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL
VALUES FOR LATE AUGUST/EARLY SEPTEMBER.

SATURDAY MORNING...A REPEAT OF THE FRIDAY MORNING SCENARIO IS
POSSIBLE...WITH ENHANCED LOW LEVEL/MARINE MOISTURE POSSIBLY
SUPPORTING A FEW SHALLOW SHOWERS OVER COASTAL COUNTIES/ADJACENT
COASTAL WATERS. THEN...THE FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
WILL SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG/WEST OF I-95. GIVEN THE CAP STILL
EVIDENT IN MODEL SOUNDINGS...CAPPED POPS AT SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS
AREA.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS...PERHAPS BRUSHING COASTAL COUNTIES. OF
INTEREST...THE 29/12Z NAM DEPICTS INLAND CONVECTION PERSISTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WHILE WE CANNOT COMPLETELY DISCOUNT THIS
SOLUTION...PER TYPICAL DIURNAL TRENDS POPS TAPER TO LESS THAN 15
PERCENT INLAND WITH NO MENTION OF PRECIPITATION DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. ALSO OF NOTE...LIGHT WINDS/LOW LEVEL MOISTURE COULD SUPPORT
PATCHY FOG LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY...BUT FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A MENTION WITHIN PUBLIC
FORECASTS.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND MAX
MLCAPES COULD POTENTIALLY SURGE TO AT LEAST 2500-3500 J/KG...
SUPPORTED BY HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. THIS REGIME SHOULD SUPPORT DIURNAL SHOWERS/
THUNDERSTORMS PERHAPS ACCOMPANIED BY A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
AND A LOW-END THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO FLATTEN MONDAY...SLIGHTLY STRONGER LOW-MID LEVEL
WINDS COULD SUPPORT MULTICELL THUNDERSTORMS AND A SLIGHTLY GREATER
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN
SHIFT OVER COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SUBTLE CAP PRODUCED BY THE UPPER RIDGE/DEPICTED BY MODEL
SOUNDINGS...CAPPED HIGHEST POPS AT 30-40 PERCENT INLAND SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AFTERNOONS. EVENTUALLY...LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD BE
REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STRATUS TO DEVELOP LATE
TONIGHT AND TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF A FEW
STRATUS AND SLIGHT VSBY REDUCTIONS TO TREND INTO THE FORECAST.
PREFER TO WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE
IS HIGHER IN TIMING AND COVERAGE...ESPECIALLY SINCE MVFR OR IFR
CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN.
HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND
AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...LOW CHANCES OF DIRECT IMPACTS FROM
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. ALSO...LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG/STRATUS THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL SUPPORT
WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS.
SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...DEEP LAYERED HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL.
SE WINDS SATURDAY WILL VEER TOWARD THE S/SW SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LESS THAN 15 KT.
HOWEVER...LOCAL WINDS COULD APPROACH 20 KT DUE TO THE DAILY SEA
BREEZE CIRCULATION AND A NOCTURNAL SURGE DEPICTED BY MODELS SUNDAY
NIGHT. SEAS WILL RANGE FROM 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.
SUNDAY NIGHT...3 FT SEAS COULD PUSH INTO NEARSHORE WATERS AND SEAS
AS HIGH AS 4-5 FT COULD BRIEFLY DEVELOP BEYOND 20 NM. HOWEVER...ODDS
ARE HIGH THAT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE REQUIRED THROUGH
MID WEEK.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...WMS/SPR
MARINE...WMS/SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A BRIEF SHOWER MOVED ONSHORE OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE TAF HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291740
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
140 PM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A BRIEF SHOWER MOVED ONSHORE OVER
CHARLESTON COUNTY BUT HAS SINCE DISSIPATED. THIS SHOULD BE THE
CASE WITH ANY OTHER ACTIVITY THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
ONGOING FORECAST WAS IN GOOD SHAPE SO ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO
HOURLY T/TD GRIDS WERE MADE. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH MUCH OF THE VALID TAF PERIOD.
THERE IS A POSSIBILITY FOR FOG/STATUS TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT AND
TOWARDS SUNRISE...SO HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION IN THE TAF HOWEVER
WILL WAIT TO INTRODUCE ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS UNTIL CONFIDENCE IS
HIGHER. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH
THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A
FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291423
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1023 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE COULD DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...THE 12Z CHARLESTON SOUNDING SHOWS A LAYER OF VERY SHALLOW
MOISTURE IN THE LOWEST LEVELS...WITH SIGNIFICANT DRY AIR JUST
ABOVE AND THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE PROFILE. DEWPOINT
TEMPERATURE TRENDS ARE INDICATIVE OF SLIGHTLY HIGHER MOISTURE IN
THESE LOWEST LAYERS...WITH DEWPOINTS CURRENTLY SEVERAL DEGREES
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. THUS EXPECT MORE SKY COVER THAN
SEEN EARLIER IN THE WEEK...WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES DEVELOPING
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE SEABREEZE CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
NOTABLE SUBSIDENCE AND CAPPING WITHIN THE PERSISTENT DEEP LAYER
RIDGE PATTERN WILL STILL SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION
TODAY. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED BRIEF SHOWER COULD BUBBLE ALONG THE
SEABREEZE...THE OVERALL CHANCE FOR ANY RAIN REMAINS BELOW 15
PERCENT. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOW TO MID 90S AWAY FROM
THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTLINE...SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS FOR LATE AUGUST.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES...WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT...AND WHILE THE MENTION OF FOG COULD EVENTUALLY BE
PUT INTO THE FORECAST...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION WAS NOT
HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL THEN INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...AND HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN. HOWEVER...FOG
STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND MOISTURE
PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL OF THE PATTERN WILL
SUPPORT WEAK GRADIENTS...THUS EXPECT LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR
LESS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...WMS
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE
FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS
HINTED BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS
MAINLY BELOW 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOWEVER THE EARLY
LOOK AT FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND
MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







000
FXUS62 KCHS 291125
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
725 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A
POCKET OF ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z
MODELS INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE
FROM WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL
LIKELY BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS
HINTED BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT
TOTALLY RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS
MAINLY BELOW 10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND
GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR FOG WILL INCREASE
LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK SATURDAY MORNING...WE HAVE INTRODUCED
SOME 6SM BR AND FEW CLOUDS BELOW 1 KFT. MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS ARE
NOT TYPICALLY EXPECTED WITH THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN HOWEVER THE EARLY
LOOK AT FOG STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST A FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL WIND AND
MOISTURE PROFILE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR DAYBREAK
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS THANKS TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY PROBLEMS
AS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW COOLER RURAL INLAND SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MINS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FROM
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS HINTED
BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS MAINLY BELOW
10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290754
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
354 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND
PERSIST INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
MAY DEVELOP IN THE MID WEEK TIME PERIOD.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...UPPER RIDGING DOMINATING SE GEORGIA AND SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AROUND FOR DAYBREAK
WITH PATCHY FOG IN A FEW AREAS THANKS TO SOME INCREASED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION AND LINGERING DRIER AIR IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AT THIS TIME...NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT VSBY PROBLEMS
AS THE FOG SHOULD REMAIN SHALLOW IN NATURE. TEMPS RUNNING A BIT
WARMER THIS MORNING WITH A FEW COOLER RURAL INLAND SPOTS PERHAPS
DIPPING TO THE LOWER 60S FOR MINS.

DEEP LAYERED RIDGING WILL HOLD FIRM THROUGH TONIGHT WITH DRY WEATHER
PREVAILING. THE ONLY FEATURE OF NOTE THIS MORNING IS A POCKET OF
ENHANCED MOISTURE BELOW 800 MB OFF THE COAST...THE 00Z MODELS
INITIALIZED THIS FEATURE WELL...BUT THE ONLY CONSEQUENCE FROM
WEAK MOISTURE ADVECTION ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST WILL LIKELY
BE A BIT MORE IN THE WAY OF AFTERNOON CUMULUS/STRATOCU AS HINTED
BY FORECAST CLOUD COVER PROGS FROM THE NAM/GEM. WE CANNOT TOTALLY
RULE OUT A BRIEF SHOWER ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BUT POPS MAINLY BELOW
10 PERCENT GIVEN THE WEALTH OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE.

TONIGHT...QUIET WEATHER LINGERS WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS. THE POSSIBILITY OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT FOG EXISTS
ONCE AGAIN. WHILE THE MENTION MAY EVENTUALLY WORK IT/S WAY INTO
OUR FORECAST PRODUCTS LATER TODAY...CONFIDENCE IN EXTENT AND LOCATION
WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH FOR INCLUSIONS JUST YET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...ALOFT THE REGION WILL BE SOLIDLY UNDER
THE CENTER OF AN EXPANSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED
ANTICYCLONE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL START THE DAY POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT MOVES
EASTWARD OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC. THIS WILL PLACE THE REGION UNDER
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH COVERING MUCH OF THE ATLANTIC FOR
THE FIRST OF THE WEEKEND. PWATS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
APPEAR QUITE DRY...GENERALLY LESS THAN 1.5 INCHES. THIS LACK OF
MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH THE RIDGE ALOFT AND A SUBSTANTIAL
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION NOTED IN THE 700-800 MB LAYER WILL KEEP THE
BULK OF THE AREA DRY. THERE IS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE PROGGED ACROSS
SOUTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...SO THE FORECAST CONTAINS A SMALL SLIVER
OF SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE ALTAMAHA. HIGHS WILL RUN IN THE LOW
TO MID 90S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID
70S. THESE TEMPERATURES ON AVERAGE WOULD BE ABOUT 2-4 DEGREES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY FOR LATE AUGUST.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED
THOUGH THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL MORPH A BIT AS IT BECOMES A BIT MORE
NARROW AND MORE WEST/EAST ORIENTED WITH TIME. THE FORECAST AREA WILL
ALSO REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL PRIMARILY BE DRIVEN BY
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARY
INTERACTIONS. MODEL SOUNDINGS STILL LOOK QUITE UNIMPRESSIVE WITH A
CAPPING INVERSION PRESENT EACH AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH A LARGE RIDGE
ALOFT AND THE PRESENCE OF THE CAP...I HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP POPS IN
THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE EACH AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL QUITE
SIMILAR TO SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THE LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE
TO INFLUENCE THE AREA. THE RIDGE WILL UNDERGO A TRANSITION IN THE
MID/LATE WEEK TIME PERIOD AS IT RETROGRADES BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS
THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLY IN RESPONSE TO A TROUGH MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CANADA. THE PATTERN IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL STILL
FEATURE THE INFLUENCE OF THE ATLANTIC HIGH...THOUGH THERE ARE
INDICATIONS THAT AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP IN
THE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME. AS THIS OCCURS...THE COVERAGE OF
AFTERNOON/EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY TICK UPWARD A BIT.
THE FORECAST FEATURES SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS EACH AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE RIDGE
ALOFT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY. THE PROBABILITY FOR PATCHY GROUND FOG WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT/AROUND DAYBREAK THIS MORNING...BUT THE CHANCE
FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS REMAINS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE WITHIN 06Z
TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. VERY LOW CHANCES
OF DIRECT HITS FROM ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS WEEKEND THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALSO LOW CHANCES FOR EARLY MORNING FOG THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRES IN CONTROL AND WEAK GRADIENTS...
LIGHT WINDS MOSTLY 10 KT OR LESS. SEAS GENERALLY 2 TO 3 FT TODAY
AND TONIGHT...MAINLY IN SWELL.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...OVERALL CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY QUIET AS
THE PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE SOUTHERLY AND 15 KT OR LESS...STRONGEST ALONG THE
LAND/SEA INTERFACE WITH THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE. AS A RESULT...SEAS
WILL BE 1-2 FT WITHIN 20 NM AND 2-3 FT BEYOND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH







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