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000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040834
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
434 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE PERSISTENT LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES TODAY...AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
ROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH. HOWEVER...IT DOES APPEAR THAT
ATLANTIC RIDGING MAY BE ABLE TO EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD INTO THE
REGION AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES/DEEPENS TO THE WEST. THIS MAY BE
SUFFICIENT TO KEEP THE GREATEST FORCING JUST NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
WITH EACH PASSING SHORT WAVE. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THE
REGION WILL REMAIN ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE WHILE A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

OVERALL...THE INDEPENDENCE DAY FORECAST IS NOT VERY CLEAR CUT IN
TERMS OF PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL. RADAR MOSAICS INDICATE A SERIES
OF CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES LINED UP ACROSS NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA
AND GEORGIA IN ASSOCIATION WITH EACH SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE. WHILE
THE BUILDING RIDGE SHOULD GENERALLY STEER THESE COMPLEXES JUST
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SHOW A
GOOD POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ALONG
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SOUTHEAST DUE TO COLD POOLING.
THIS CONVECTION COULD ORGANIZE INTO MULTI-CELLULAR CLUSTERS AS IT
ADVANCES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION APPEARS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE
NORTHEAST FLORIDA/SOUTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN
AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...THEN LIFT NORTHWARD
INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND THIS EVENING. ALL OF THIS SEEMS
TO SUPPORT INCREASED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE AREA
AND HAVE RAISED POPS ACCORDINGLY. THE FORECAST GENERALLY SHOWS
RAIN CHANCES AROUND 40 PERCENT...BUT THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE
RAISED AS TRENDS BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME
SEVERE...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES RISING TO 2500-3000 J/KG
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION...DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF
750-1000 J/KG AND INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A DAMAGING WIND
THREAT. GIVEN THESE FACTORS...WILL ADD MENTION TO THE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE LOWERED HIGHS FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED
CLOUD COVER. THE FORECAST NOW INDICATES HIGHS OF 92-94 ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE UPPER 80S TOWARD THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...THE UPPER RIDGE MAY BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN A BIT...WITH THE LOWERING HEIGHTS AND SOME PASSING
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES SUPPORTING LOW CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE NEAR THE
COAST. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY A CONTINUATION OF THE SAME PATTERN WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE ATLANTIC AND LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING
OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ALOFT WHICH WILL BE THE MAIN FORCING FOR
CONVECTION.

SUNDAY...CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH DEEP
MOISTURE WILL MEAN ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES...HIGHEST INLAND CLOSER
TO POSSIBLE ORGANIZED CONVECTION UPSTREAM. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE
LOWER 90S...MAINLY NEAR AND WEST OF I-95. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID
70S.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CLOSER TO 90. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW GIVEN
REDUCED INSTABILITY/SHEAR.

TUESDAY...SCATTERED CONVECTION AGAIN ALTHOUGH PROBABLY NOT QUITE AS
MUCH AS THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS AND HIGH PRESSURE EXERTS MORE
INFLUENCE. HIGHS A BIT WARMER CLOSER TO NORMAL IN THE LOWER 90S AWAY
FROM THE LOCALLY COOLER COASTAL AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING MORE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING. ANOTHER TROUGH COULD RETURN
LATE IN THE WEEK. SHOULD SEE LOW RAIN CHANCES THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY...MAINLY EACH AFTERNOON/EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND
LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...AND COULD RESULT IN TEMPORARY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
AND GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/COVERAGE
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE MENTION IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE FOUND BETWEEN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE AND A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA WILL BEGIN TO RELAX SOME THIS
MORNING...RESULTING IN DIMINISHING WINDS OVER THE WATERS. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON COUNTY NEAR
SHORE WATERS AND THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BUT ARE SET TO EXPIRE
AT 7 AM AS CONDITIONS IMPROVE. LOOK FOR SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
TO THEN PREVAIL WITH SPEEDS UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL MAY SUBSIDE A BIT AS WINDS DIMINISH...BUT
OVERALL SHOULD RANGE FROM 2-4 FT...HIGHEST IN THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURDSAY...EXPECT A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
SUPPORT A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA BEACHES TODAY. IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM
SOUTH ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A
HIGH-END LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ350-
     374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040554
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
154 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A LINGERING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS
MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...AIDED BY FORCING FOR
ASCENT FROM AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. THIS
CONVECTION COULD PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD A BIT ALONG NEW DEVELOPING
OUTFLOW/COLD POOLING...THUS HAVE RAISED POPS CONSIDERABLY ACROSS
NORTH/NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH DAYBREAK.
INSTABILITY IS ALSO FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE FOR THIS TIME OF
NIGHT...WITH SURFACE BASED CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG AND
DOWNDRAFT CAPE VALUES OF 800-900 J/KG...THUS THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF GENERATING SOME GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 40-50 MPH WITH
THE STRONGER CELLS. LOWS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTHWARD
TOWARD THE TERMINAL EARLY THIS MORNING...AND HAVE INCLUDED A
TEMPO GROUP THROUGH 08Z FOR THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY/ERRATIC WINDS
AND SOME FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS. RADAR TRENDS MAY DICTATE EXTENDING
THE TEMPO GROUP THROUGH LATER IN THE MORNING DUE TO ADDITIONAL
UPSTREAM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE THEN GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH
06Z SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ350-374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 040159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
959 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND STICKY THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT
WITHIN A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. LATEST THINKING IS THAT ANY UPSTREAM
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN GA AND EASTERN AL IN CONJUNCTION WITH A
SHORT WAVE WILL GENERALLY STAY WEST OF THE FORECAST ZONES. BUT WE
HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE NW TIER AFTER 3 OR 4 AM
JUST IN CASE SOME IS ABLE TO SURVIVE THIS FAR EAST.

SKIES WILL BE CLEAR OR PARTLY CLOUDY EARLY...GIVING WAY TO SOME
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM UPSTREAM LATE. A LITTLE LATE NIGHT
STRATUS AND FOG IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCURRED
IN SC ON FRIDAY. LOWEST TEMPS ON AVERAGE WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND
MIDDLE 70S...MAYBE A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE BARRIER ISLANDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PERSIST BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT S-SW WINDS OF
15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT. WINDS WILL DROP ABOUT 5 KT OR SO LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 032316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LURKING
JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD DEVELOP
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ADJUSTED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED TO KEEP
CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT GREAT.
WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 032316
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
716 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LURKING
JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM COULD DEVELOP
ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THE
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP CONVECTION. ADJUSTED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. FARTHER
NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY OVERTURNED TO KEEP
CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST
ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY SOUTHERN SOUTH
CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS NOT GREAT.
WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DISTANT UPSTREAM CONVECTION FROM AL/GA IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH
THE TERMINALS TONIGHT...AND THE RISK FOR ANY SHRA/TSRA SATURDAY
IS CURRENTLY FORECAST TO STAY AWAY FROM THE TERMINALS. THUS WE
ARE SHOWING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LURKING JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVERTURNED TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT GREAT. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032158
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
558 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A QUICK UPDATE HAS BEEN ISSUED TO TAKE CURRENT MESOSCALE TRENDS
INTO ACCOUNT. KCLX REFLECTIVITY DATA CLEARLY SHOW AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY LURKING JUST SOUTH OF I-16. THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSTM
COULD DEVELOP ALONG/SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY...SATELLITE TRENDS
SUGGEST THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS TOO CAPPED TO SUPPORT DEEP
CONVECTION. ADJUSTED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE IN THIS AREA FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. FARTHER NORTH...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN SUFFICIENTLY
OVERTURNED TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM REDEVELOPING. HIGH RESOLUTION
MODELS SUGGEST ANOTHER AREA OF CONVECTION COULD MOVE ACROSS MAINLY
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA AFTER MIDNIGHT...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS
NOT GREAT. WILL SHOW SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 032111
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
511 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT
ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
SETUP COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A
WEST-EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH DCAPES AT OR
ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NOTED AREA.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 032111
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
511 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT
ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT
TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE
SETUP COULD HELP PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF A
WEST-EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR
AND SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH DCAPES AT OR
ABOVE 1000 J/KG SHOULD SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD THEY DEVELOP WITHIN THE NOTED AREA.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PART OF
TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KTS. WINDS SHOULD IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS LATER
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
EXPECTED. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT
CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY
BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031951
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH
DCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WEST-
EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST...AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE CHS HARBOR LATER THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER REMAINING WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE. WINDS/SEAS
COULD VARY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031951
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
351 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL
WATERS. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
COUNTIES ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
FOR NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE
ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID
ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A
PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC.
THE SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY
OVER AREAS WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS UNTAPPED IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE WITH
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES INDICATES AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS SOUTH OF
A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY SHIFTING OFF THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500 KT ALONG WITH
DCAPES AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...MAINLY SOUTH OF A WEST-
EAST EXTENDING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY NEAR INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.
LOCATIONS NEAR AND SOUTH OF THIS LINE WILL REMAIN IN A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
OVERNIGHT...BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER INTO
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERVIEW: THE PATTERN WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY LONG WAVE TROUGHING
ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. WITH THE SOUTHEAST STATES
POSITIONED ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED WELL OFFSHORE. DIURNAL CONVECTION IS LIKELY THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH COVERAGE BEING DETERMINED BY THE POSITION OF THE UPPER
RIDGE CENTERED JUST OFFSHORE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE THAT
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY.

SATURDAY...SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE THE LEAST ACTIVE DAY THROUGH THE MID
RANGE WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING HOLDING FIRM. PWATS WILL REMAIN
ELEVATED AND JUXTAPOSED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE HIGHER PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURABLE RAINFALL LOOKS TO
OCCUR ACROSS COASTAL GEORGIA WHERE CONVECTION COULD MOVE NORTHEAST
OUT OF NORTHERN FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WHERE LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED BY A POSSIBLE MERGING OF THE ATLANTIC
AND GULF SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS. MESOSCALE BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS
ARE DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THIS FAR OUT...SO POPS OF 20-30 PERCENT
WILL BE MAINTAINED /HIGHEST ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST/...BUT LOCALLY
HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. THERE ARE SIGNALS THAT
CONVECTION COULD LINGER THROUGH THE NIGHT AS UPPER LEVEL RIDING
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN...BUT DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SHOULD KEEP THIS
ACTIVITY FAIRLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE
NOCTURNAL JETTING COULD SUPPORT MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL
RANGE FROM THE LOWER-MID 90S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID
70S.

SUNDAY...MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN THE DEPICTION OF AN UPPER LOW CUTTING
OFF OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS POTENT SHORTWAVE ENERGY CUTS OFF FROM
THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES. SIMILARLY...THE PREVAILING UPPER
RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BREAKDOWN AND SHIFT EAST OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S.
COAST. DEEP MOISTURE CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES FUNNELED
BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES COUPLED WITH SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND
DPVA INDUCED BY WAVES OF PASSING VORTICITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED
SHOWERS/TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. POPS AROUND 50 PERCENT LOOK
REASONABLE THIS FAR OUT...ALTHOUGH HIGHER POPS MAY EVENTUALLY BE
NEEDED. CONVECTION COULD VERY WELL LINGER WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. HIGHS WILL WARM INTO THE LOWER 90S AWAY FROM THE COAST WITH
OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

MONDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND EJECT OUT OF THE
TENNESSEE VALLEY MONDAY AFTERNOON AS STRONGER SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIGS
INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...LINGERING TROUGHING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COUPLED WITH RICH MOISTURE WILL KEEP A RISK FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE REGION. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT AROUND
90 WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
PERSIST BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT 15-20 KT
WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR...WATERS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY
COAST...AND FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS DUE TO FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25
KTS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH OVER THE CHS HARBOR LATER THIS
EVENING...FOLLOWED BY IMPROVING CONDITIONS OVER REMAINING WATERS
LATER TONIGHT. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE
OUTER GEORGIA WATERS...BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING LATE. WINDS/SEAS
COULD VARY WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...THE COMBINATION OF LINGERING LUNAR INFLUENCES...AN
EASTERLY SWELL OF 2 FT EVERY 9 SECONDS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL SUPPORT
A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF CHARLESTON
COUNTY. ATTM IT APPEARS SLIGHTLY LOWER WINDS FROM EDISTO BEACH SOUTH
ALONG GEORGIA COAST WILL LIMIT THE RIP CURRENT RISK TO A HIGH-END
LOW CATEGORY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...ST
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/ST
MARINE...DPB/ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031746
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
146 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING
WILL CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL
LIKELY APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG GIVEN THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN
THE SETUP...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES
APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000 J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS...VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEFORE A LINE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z
THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN
INCLUDED BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND 20-30 KT
WIND GUSTS THAT ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORM. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH A PART OF THE EVENING...BUT VFR CIGS/VSBYS
WILL LIKELY RETURN BY 23Z-01Z THIS EVENING...THEN PERSIST INTO
OVERNIGHT AND LATE MORNING HOURS SATURDAY.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18-19Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT IMPACT THE TERMINAL. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
RETURN EARLY TONIGHT...THEN PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS
SATURDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031717
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THIS AFTERNOON...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS RECOVERED
FROM EARLIER MORNING CONVECTION. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-2500
J/KG ALONG WITH FORCING FROM A 30-40 KT LOW LVL JET DEPICTED ON THE
LATEST CHS SPECIAL SOUNDING...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED
CONVECTION IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY
OVER INLAND AREAS. THIS LINE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD TOWARD
THE COAST FOR THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL
CONTINUE UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY
APPROACH 3000-3500 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN
THE POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL PEAK AROUND 90 FOR MOST AREAS IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER WITH APPROACHING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION WILL
IMPACT THE TERMINAL STARTING BETWEEN 18-19Z THIS AFTERNOON. A TEMPO
GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS NOW BEEN INCLUDED FOR 19Z-23Z WITH
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO 18Z. TEMPO MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE THEN POSSIBLE BETWEEN 19Z-23Z WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN EARLY TONIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL
TIGHTEN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL
SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS.
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-
AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL
WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS.
WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE
TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5
FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS. WINDS/SEAS COULD VARY
WITHIN STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...DPB/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

TODAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
REMAIN MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO HOW WELL NORTHERN AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL REBOUND FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT AT LEAST
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN POCKETS OF SUN NOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
FORCING FROM THE LOW LVL JET AND H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY TO CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH
2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031521
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1121 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY EVENING FOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR ALL AREAS
UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING.

TODAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS
REMAIN MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT ROUNDS
ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG OR SEVERE...IN THE FORM
OF A LINE CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON RADAR IMAGERY OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA.

SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN IN REGARDS TO HOW WELL NORTHERN AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA WILL REBOUND FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION
EARLIER THIS MORNING...BUT MODEL CONSENSUS INDICATES THAT AT LEAST
PARTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER RECOVERY WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF A 30-40 KT LOW
LVL JET SHIFTING INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. THIS SEEMS
PLAUSIBLE GIVEN POCKETS OF SUN NOW REACHING THE SFC IN THE TRI-
COUNTY AREA. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH
FORCING FROM THE LOW LVL JET AND H5 SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY POSITIONED
TO OUR NORTH/NORTHWEST...SHOULD FAVOR A ROUND OF ENHANCED CONVECTION
IN THE FORM OF LINE...AS CURRENTLY SEEN VIA RADAR IMAGERY TO OUR
WEST. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS THAT ENTER
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. GIVEN
AMPLE SHEAR/HELICITY AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AS
WELL. FURTHER SOUTH...STRONG SFC HEATING WILL OCCUR UNDER MOSTLY
SUNNY TO CLEAR SKIES. AS A RESULT...SBCAPES WILL LIKELY APPROACH
2000-3000 J/KG. HOWEVER...SHEAR WILL NOT BE AS STRONG GIVEN THE
POSITION OF THE LOW LVL JET TO THE NORTH. GIVEN THE SETUP...THE
PRIMARY CONCERN WITH THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY AS DCAPES APPROACH AT OR ABOVE 1000
J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...BUT SHOULD BE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER IN
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR
CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN
FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD
DIMINISH IN THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST
OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...DPB/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 031153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 031153
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
753 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS
PORTIONS OF MAINLY SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA THIS MORNING. THE
FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE CHANCE TO
LIKELY CATEGORY IN THE AFFECTED AREAS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE STORMS
MOVING THROUGH. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME SEVERE
GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
COULD AFFECT THE TERMINAL THROUGH ABOUT 16Z...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME AS STORMS HAVE GENERALLY BEEN
WEAKENING AS THEY APPROACH THE TERMINAL. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS
INCREASING THAT STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A
TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM 20-24Z WITH FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE EVENING.

KSAV...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. CONVECTION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO
PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST
UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE APPARENT. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS WERE
TO OCCUR...IT WOULD MOST LIKELY BE IN THE 20-24Z TIME FRAME AND
BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 030836
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA EASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
INDICATES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE STORMS MOVING THROUGH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS TRENDS BECOME
FURTHER ESTABLISHED. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 11-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

KSAV...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL DUE
TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH
CLOUDS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINAL IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 030836
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
436 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES...WHILE AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD
IN FROM THE ATLANTIC AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA.

THIS MORNING...AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE LONG WAVE TROUGH HAS GENERATED AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL MOVE FROM EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA EASTWARD
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. THE FORECAST
INDICATES A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ACCOUNT FOR
THESE STORMS MOVING THROUGH...AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT RAINFALL
PROBABILITIES WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED FURTHER AS TRENDS BECOME
FURTHER ESTABLISHED. THESE STORMS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SEVERE GIVEN LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH THE ATMOSPHERE HAVING BEEN
SUFFICIENTLY WORKED OVER WITH LAST EVENINGS CONVECTION. SKIES WILL
GENERALLY BE MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A MIX OF LOW STRATUS AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AFFECTING THE AREA...BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE
LATE THIS MORNING.

THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...ANOTHER IN A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA...SPARKING
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA MAINLY
NORTH OF THE I-16 CORRIDOR. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS SUCH
AS THE HRRR AND NSSL-WRF INDICATE THIS CONVECTION ORGANIZING INTO
ANOTHER MCS AS IT MOVES THROUGH FROM MID-AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING. THE FORECAST INDICATES SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING
LIKELY FROM COLLETON COUNTY NORTH...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
SOUTHWARD TO I-16...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH TO THE
ALTAMAHA RIVER.

MODIFIED SOUNDINGS SHOW SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOPING GIVEN SOME
DIURNAL HEATING...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RISING
POTENTIALLY AS HIGH AS 2500-3000 J/KG. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ANY
SEVERE CONVECTION WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS GIVEN IMPRESSIVE
WIND FIELDS ALOFT FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. HOWEVER...FREQUENT
LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL ARE ALSO EXPECTED. ANY BACKING
OF THE LOW LEVEL WIND FIELD COULD YIELD AN ISOLATED TORNADO...BUT
THE TREAT IS VERY LOW. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MOST OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA IN A SLIGHT RISK...WITH A MARGINAL RISK
DOWN TO I-16...WHICH SEEMS PRUDENT GIVEN THIS SETUP.

DAYTIME HIGHS SHOULD REACH THE LOWER 90S MOST AREAS BEFORE THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION MOVES IN. EXPECT SOUTHWEST WINDS TO INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BECOMING RATHER GUSTY AT TIMES.

LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...SOME LINGERING SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF
I-16...BEFORE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE LATE. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE AND INLAND LOW
PRESSURE TO PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE TIMING OF UPPER
SHORTWAVES BEING KEY TO RAIN CHANCES.

SATURDAY...INCREASED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING FROM THE EAST SHOULD KEEP
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS...WITH THE
HIGHEST CHANCES LIKELY COMING LATER IN THE DAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND DEEPER MOISTURE AFFECT THE AREA. HIGHS
LIKELY AT OR JUST ABOVE NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S.

SUNDAY...SHOULD BE BETTER RAIN COVERAGE WITH THE UPPER TROUGH A BIT
CLOSER. SEVERE RISK APPEARS LOW OVERALL BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH HOW
ORGANIZED UPSTREAM CONVECTION BECOMES AS IT PUSHES EAST TOWARD THE
COAST. HIGHS LIKELY SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL LINGER INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY...SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AGAIN WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS LIKELY HELPING KEEP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH MID WEEK
INDICATING THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EAST COAST WILL BREAK DOWN AND
GIVE WAY TO HIGH PRESSURE. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE
GREATEST COVERAGE LIKELY TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 11-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
STRONGER CONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

KSAV...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL DUE
TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH
CLOUDS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINAL IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE
POSSIBLE IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCES BEGINNING SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.


&&

.MARINE...
TODAY AND TONIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE ATLANTIC. UNUSUALLY STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT COMBINED
WITH THE TIGHT GRADIENT WILL SUPPORT WINDS UPWARDS OF 15-20 KT
OVER MUCH OF THE WATERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
AS NOCTURNAL JETTING DEVELOPS. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING MID-AFTERNOON FOR CHARLESTON HARBOR AND THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS...THEN FOR THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS BY EARLY THIS EVENING AS FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THESE WATERS. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH IN
THE HARBOR DURING THE EVENING...THEN LATE TONIGHT OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 3-5 FT...HIGHEST OVER THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS.

SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXPECTED. A
TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN
ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD LARGELY
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT
COULD REACH 5 FT AT TIMES MOSTLY BEYOND 20 NM.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE LOWER SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST TODAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD
THEN PERSIST INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 5 AM EDT
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...RJB
LONG TERM...RJB
AVIATION...JAQ/RJB
MARINE...JAQ/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030544
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN/DISSIPATE...BUT LOW STRATUS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR DUE TO
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUE
TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THE FORECAST
INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RESULT. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EITHER FILL IN WITH
DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST...THUS KEEPING SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 11-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
STRONGERCONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

KSAV...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL DUE
TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH
CLOUDS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINAL IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15-20 KTS DURING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030544
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
144 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
EARLY THIS MORNING...THE EARLIER CONVECTION HAS SHIFTED WELL
OFFSHORE WITH RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS CONTINUE TO THIN/DISSIPATE...BUT LOW STRATUS IS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP WHERE BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER OCCUR DUE TO
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CONDITIONS. ISOLATED CONVECTION ACROSS THE
UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA CONTINUE
TO TRACK TOWARD THE AREA.

THROUGH DAYBREAK...THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY SHIFT
INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST TOWARD DAYBREAK AND THE FORECAST
INDICATES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS A
RESULT. ANY BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EITHER FILL IN WITH
DEVELOPING LOW STRATUS OR HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS SHIFTING IN FROM THE
WEST...THUS KEEPING SKIES AT LEAST MOSTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEARLY STEADY OR ONLY SLOWLY FALL BY ANOTHER DEGREE OR
TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
KCHS...HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE ISOLATED SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD AFFECT THE
TERMINAL IN THE 11-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE
MENTION AT THIS TIME. THEN...CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT
STRONGERCONVECTION COULD IMPACT THE TERMINAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING AND THE FORECAST HAS A TEMPO GROUP FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM 19-23Z WITH FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND GUSTY
WINDS LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS. LINGERING SHOWERS ARE
THEN EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE EVENING.

KSAV...SOME PATCHY LOW STRATUS HAS DEVELOPED AT THE TERMINAL DUE
TO LINGERING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND PARTIAL CLEARING OF HIGH
CLOUDS. IT IS VERY POSSIBLE THAT A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR CEILINGS
COULD OCCUR THROUGH 14Z AND AMENDMENTS MAY BE NECESSARY BASED ON
SATELLITE TRENDS. HIGH RESOLUTION MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE
ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COULD
AFFECT THE TERMINAL IN THE 10-14Z TIME FRAME...THUS HAVE ADDED A
TEMPO GROUP FOR LIGHT SHOWERS DURING THAT PERIOD. A THUNDERSTORM
IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE AS WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO
INCLUDE MENTION AT THIS TIME. CONVECTION LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY THIS EVENING IS EXPECTED TO PRIMARILY REMAIN NORTH OF THE
TERMINAL SO HAVE NO MENTION IN THE FORECAST...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE REEVALUATED WITH EACH FORECAST UPDATE AS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15-20 KTS DURING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JAQ
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 030122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED BUT A BATCH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...MAYBE A BIT LONGER
AT KCHS...AS A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. VFR
CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS THEREAFTER UNTIL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AFFECTS THE TERMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15-20 KTS
DURING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 030122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED BUT A BATCH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...MAYBE A BIT LONGER
AT KCHS...AS A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. VFR
CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS THEREAFTER UNTIL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AFFECTS THE TERMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15-20 KTS
DURING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 030122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED BUT A BATCH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...MAYBE A BIT LONGER
AT KCHS...AS A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. VFR
CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS THEREAFTER UNTIL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AFFECTS THE TERMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15-20 KTS
DURING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 030122
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
922 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS ENDED BUT A BATCH OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL LINGER FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE FURTHER OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...CAN/T
COMPLETELY RULE OUT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND EVEN THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY REMAINS ALOFT. LOW TEMPS
WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS TO CONTINUE THROUGH ABOUT 02Z...MAYBE A BIT LONGER
AT KCHS...AS A BATCH OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN MOVES THROUGH. VFR
CONDS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS THEREAFTER UNTIL
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS LIKELY AFFECTS THE TERMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
CHARLESTON COUNTY COASTAL WATERS THROUGH ABOUT 10 PM. ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. IN
GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW 15-20 KTS
DURING NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4
FT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022259
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT MAINTAINS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS
ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW HIRES
MODELS...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
LINE AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
UNTIL 9 PM.

STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE ARE HINTS WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING EVENING
HOURS...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER
TERMINAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP OF IFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 23-01Z AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-45 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022259
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT MAINTAINS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS
ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR A PERIOD OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY SHIFTING OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA THIS EVENING.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE HOURS AS A H5 SHORTWAVE SLOWLY SHIFTS EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS
THE AREA THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT. AS SUGGESTED BY A FEW HIRES
MODELS...A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING
THROUGH THE AREA WITH STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 2000-3000
J/KG AHEAD OF THE LINE ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STRONG AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THIS
LINE AS IT SHIFTS TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST COAST. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
UNTIL 9 PM.

STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
BEGINNING A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE ARE HINTS WE COULD
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
WITH SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT PASSES OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE. A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEREFORE
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW
TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE DURING EVENING
HOURS...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER
TERMINAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP OF IFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 23-01Z AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-45 KTS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY CONCERN...ESPECIALLY IN NEARSHORE COASTAL WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 022008
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT MAINTAINS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS
ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FAVOR
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL COME WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK WHILE
THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS INDICATE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SBCAPES RANGING
BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE SEABREEZE. GIVEN THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
UNTIL 9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE
ARE HINTS WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH REMAINING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT PASSES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THEREFORE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER
TERMINAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22-01Z AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO LATE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR




000
FXUS62 KCHS 022008
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT MAINTAINS DEEP MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS AROUND 2.0 INCHES. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS
ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL FAVOR
A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST OF THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL COME WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT IS
CURRENTLY DEPICTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER THE UPSTATE OF
SOUTH CAROLINA. EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK WHILE
THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO SHIFT EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS INDICATE
PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD THROUGH THE AREA. SBCAPES RANGING
BETWEEN 2000-3000 J/KG ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL
SUPPORT STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY WHEN ENCOUNTERING THE SEABREEZE. GIVEN THE
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS NOW IN
EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
UNTIL 9 PM. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. STRONGER CONVECTION SHOULD GRADUALLY
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET...BUT THERE
ARE HINTS WE COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LINGER INTO
THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD WITH REMAINING SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY THAT PASSES
MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS LATE. A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE THEREFORE BEEN INCLUDED IN THE LATEST
FORECAST THROUGH MUCH OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. LOW TEMPS WILL
RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THIS PERIOD WILL FEATURE MAINLY SUBTLE CHANGES WHICH WILL TRANSLATE
IN VARYING THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FRIDAY. ELEVATED LOWER/MID
TROPOSPHERIC WINDS...VORTICITY MAXIMA EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH...INSTABILITY AND MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES WILL SUPPORT MULTICELL
CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PROPAGATE FROM EAST TO WEST.
PER 02/12Z GUIDANCE MAINTAINED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING POPS
GRADUATED FROM LIKELY NORTH TO CHANCE SOUTH/WEST. THE COMBINATION OF
ELEVATED WINDS/SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/SPORADIC EPISODES OF SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.

POPS GRADUALLY DECREASE/RETREAT TOWARD THE COAST/ADJACENT COASTAL
WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT. THEN...DURING THE FOURTH OF JULY THE ATLANTIC
RIDGE SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE REGION AS THE UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES/SHARPENS UPSTREAM. THUS...LIMITED POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND TEMPERATURES WILL RECOVER INTO THE
LOWER/MID 90S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL PRESS
E/SE TOWARD THE REGION...NUDGING THE ATLANTIC RIDGE OFFSHORE. THIS
COULD PROMOTE THUNDERSTORMS...EITHER DEVELOPING IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION OR ONGOING/UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE COMPLEXES PROPAGATING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA AS EARLY AS LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. ACCORDINGLY...RAISED
POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD
BECOME QUITE ACTIVE AS ONE OR MORE MULTICELL CLUSTERS OF
THUNDERSTORMS WITH AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT PUSH INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. RAISED MAX POPS INTO THE 45-50 PERCENT RANGE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT LOCALLY GREATER POPS COULD EVENTUALLY BE REQUIRED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS THROUGH 22Z.
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER
TERMINAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A TEMPO GROUP OF MVFR VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 22-01Z AT BOTH CHS AND SAV
TERMINALS. IN ADDITION...STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 01Z AT BOTH TERMINALS. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO LATE
MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT
OR BELOW 15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AS A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHIFTS OFFSHORE
SHORTLY AFTER NIGHTFALL. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH
DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...A PERSISTENT PATTERN FEATURING ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE AND AN INLAND SURFACE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE WITH ONLY
MINOR FLUCTUATIONS. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ELEVATED WINDS/SEAS THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
AMZ350 AND AMZ374...FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET
ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE
WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ELEVATED S/SW WINDS AND ASTRONOMICAL FACTORS WILL
CONTINUE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST FRIDAY.
THUS...WILL ONCE AGAIN INDICATE A MODERATE RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS
HERE FRIDAY. AN ELEVATED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS COULD THEN PERSIST
INTO THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...SPR
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB/SPR
MARINE...DPB/SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 021750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
150 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN TWO ROUNDS...THE FIRST
BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A SEABREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TYPE IN NATURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF
THE HIRES MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE SEABREEZE. THE
MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LINGER LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 21-01Z. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING NEAR A SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20
KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021750
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
150 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN TWO ROUNDS...THE FIRST
BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A SEABREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TYPE IN NATURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS
TO SHIFT OVER THE AREA LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF
THE HIRES MODELS SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING
MID/LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME
STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE SEABREEZE. THE
MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THESE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LINGER LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CIGS/VSBYS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH TERMINALS FOR THE NEXT HOUR
OR TWO. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS...PRODUCING A PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS AT EITHER TERMINAL. HAVE MAINTAINED A PERIOD OF MVFR
VSBYS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BETWEEN 21-01Z. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON. VFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL LIKELY RETURN AT BOTH
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND PERSIST INTO LATE MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING NEAR A SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20
KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 021714
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN TWO ROUNDS...THE FIRST
BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A SEABREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TYPE IN NATURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE AREA DURING MAXIMUM SFC HEATING. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG
WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
WHEN ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE SEABREEZE. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LINGER LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 17Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21-01Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING NEAR A SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20
KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 021714
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
114 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5
SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN BASE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH
INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL
FAVOR A WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA
WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN TWO ROUNDS...THE FIRST
BEING ASSOCIATED WITH A SEABREEZE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA
AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COASTLINE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD REMAIN PULSE TYPE IN NATURE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BUT
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED STRONG AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. THE SECOND
ROUND OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY BE ASSOCIATED WITH A H5 SHORTWAVE THAT
SHIFTS OVER THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT
PRECIP COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK WHILE THIS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS
OVER THE AREA DURING MAXIMUM SFC HEATING. A FEW OF THE HIRES MODELS
SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING MID AFTERNOON
THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG ALONG
WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY
WHEN ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS THE SEABREEZE. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

TONIGHT...CONVECTION WILL LINGER LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SHOULD
GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING EARLY TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 17Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21-01Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS AFTERNOON...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED
INLAND. IN GENERAL...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW
15-20 KTS...HIGHEST NEAR A SEABREEZE CIRCULATION AND DURING
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING. SEAS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 2-4 FT. WINDS
AND SEAS WILL VARY WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH ARE CURRENTLY
ONGOING NEAR A SEABREEZE ALONG THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. A
FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS
BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT
TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW
LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20
KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL
BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST THIS AFTERNOON THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. THIS COMBINED WITH
MODEST SWELL AND ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A
MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.


&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1056 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS
CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MOISTURE
LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN TWO ROUNDS TODAY...MAINLY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF TWO DISTINCT H5 SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED WHILE THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED. THE
SECOND AND SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA DURING MAXIMUM SFC HEATING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS AN INLAND
MOVING SEABREEZE. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST.
CONVECTION WILL THEN LINGER LATE THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 17Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21-01Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 021456
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1056 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL EXPAND OVER MUCH
OF THE EASTERN CONUS WITH A SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A
WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS
CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON. THESE MOISTURE
LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH
CENTERED TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR A PERIOD OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE BULK OF PRECIP ACTIVITY SHOULD COME IN TWO ROUNDS TODAY...MAINLY
WITH THE ARRIVAL OF TWO DISTINCT H5 SHORTWAVES. THE FIRST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...BUT FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND COVERAGE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED WHILE THE AREA REMAINS CAPPED. THE
SECOND AND SLIGHTLY MORE POTENT SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT OVER
THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. EXPECT PRECIP
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY TO PEAK AS THIS SHORTWAVE SHIFTS OVER THE
AREA DURING MAXIMUM SFC HEATING...POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT PUSH EASTWARD INTO THE AREA DURING MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING HOURS. SBCAPES RANGING BETWEEN
1500-2000 J/KG ALONG WITH 20-30 KT LOW LVL WINDS WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME STRONGER AND/OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING...ESPECIALLY WHEN ACTIVITY ENCOUNTERS AN INLAND
MOVING SEABREEZE. THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG OR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY PEAK IN THE LOWER 90S THIS
AFTERNOON...WARMEST OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AWAY FROM THE COAST.
CONVECTION WILL THEN LINGER LATE THIS EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL RANGE IN
THE LOW TO MID 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 17Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21-01Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...DPB
MARINE...DPB/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 021149
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST TODAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...THE
FIRST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCATED UPSTREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILDFIRES...WILL PUT A SLIGHT
DAMPER ON OUR DIABATIC HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90-92F
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
NONETHELESS BE IN PLACE AS THE FLOW BACKS BELOW 500 MB. PWATS ARE
PROGGED AT RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES IN POCKETS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS.

WE COULD SEE THE FIRST CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND SC EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE ARE
THINKING THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE DAY AS INDICATED
BY THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL. WE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT LATE
IN THE DAY IN COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GA.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 17Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21-01Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 021149
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
749 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST TODAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...THE
FIRST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCATED UPSTREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILDFIRES...WILL PUT A SLIGHT
DAMPER ON OUR DIABATIC HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90-92F
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
NONETHELESS BE IN PLACE AS THE FLOW BACKS BELOW 500 MB. PWATS ARE
PROGGED AT RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES IN POCKETS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS.

WE COULD SEE THE FIRST CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND SC EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE ARE
THINKING THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE DAY AS INDICATED
BY THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL. WE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT LATE
IN THE DAY IN COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GA.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME CONVECTION
DEVELOPING EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF KCHS...WITH A
GREATER POTENTIAL AT BOTH TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
THIS EVENING AS A MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. THE FORECAST WILL REFLECT VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS
BEGINNING AT 17Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM
21-01Z. CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED IN
CONVECTION AT LEAST TEMPORARILY...BUT VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. IN ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020829
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST TODAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...THE
FIRST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCATED UPSTREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILDFIRES...WILL PUT A SLIGHT
DAMPER ON OUR DIABATIC HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90-92F
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
NONETHELESS BE IN PLACE AS THE FLOW BACKS BELOW 500 MB. PWATS ARE
PROGGED AT RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES IN POCKETS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS.

WE COULD SEE THE FIRST CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND SC EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE ARE
THINKING THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE DAY AS INDICATED
BY THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL. WE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT LATE
IN THE DAY IN COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GA.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AT BOTH
SITES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE
HINTS THAT KCHS WILL EXPERIENCE A STORM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
VS LATE AFTERNOON FOR KSAV. AT THIS POINT WE SIMPLY MAINTAINED
THE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILING ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020829
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST TODAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...THE
FIRST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCATED UPSTREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILDFIRES...WILL PUT A SLIGHT
DAMPER ON OUR DIABATIC HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90-92F
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
NONETHELESS BE IN PLACE AS THE FLOW BACKS BELOW 500 MB. PWATS ARE
PROGGED AT RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES IN POCKETS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS.

WE COULD SEE THE FIRST CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND SC EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE ARE
THINKING THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE DAY AS INDICATED
BY THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL. WE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT LATE
IN THE DAY IN COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GA.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AT BOTH
SITES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE
HINTS THAT KCHS WILL EXPERIENCE A STORM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
VS LATE AFTERNOON FOR KSAV. AT THIS POINT WE SIMPLY MAINTAINED
THE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILING ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 020829
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST TODAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...THE
FIRST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCATED UPSTREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILDFIRES...WILL PUT A SLIGHT
DAMPER ON OUR DIABATIC HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90-92F
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
NONETHELESS BE IN PLACE AS THE FLOW BACKS BELOW 500 MB. PWATS ARE
PROGGED AT RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES IN POCKETS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS.

WE COULD SEE THE FIRST CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND SC EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE ARE
THINKING THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE DAY AS INDICATED
BY THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL. WE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT LATE
IN THE DAY IN COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GA.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AT BOTH
SITES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE
HINTS THAT KCHS WILL EXPERIENCE A STORM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
VS LATE AFTERNOON FOR KSAV. AT THIS POINT WE SIMPLY MAINTAINED
THE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILING ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 020829
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE
LINGERS INLAND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER PATTERN WILL EXIST TODAY AS A BROAD
UPPER TROUGH RESIDES ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. A SERIES OF
UPPER SHORTWAVES ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA...THE
FIRST MOVING INTO SOUTHERN SC EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY A
MORE POTENT VORT MOVING INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
CONSIDERABLE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS LOCATED UPSTREAM EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL SLIDE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS...ALONG WITH
RESIDUAL SMOKE FROM WESTERN CANADA WILDFIRES...WILL PUT A SLIGHT
DAMPER ON OUR DIABATIC HEATING AND KEEP HIGH TEMPS IN THE 90-92F
RANGE AWAY FROM THE COAST. HOWEVER...A JUICY AIRMASS WILL
NONETHELESS BE IN PLACE AS THE FLOW BACKS BELOW 500 MB. PWATS ARE
PROGGED AT RIGHT AROUND 2 INCHES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHICH
WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SURFACE BASED CAPES WILL BE BETWEEN 1500
AND 2000 J/KG ACROSS THE BOARD WITH HIGHER VALUES IN POCKETS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE OCCURS.

WE COULD SEE THE FIRST CONVECTION ACROSS INLAND SC EARLIER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE AREA. WE ARE
THINKING THERE IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA LATER IN THE AFTERNOON AS A MORE
POTENT SHORTWAVE MOVES INTO AN AREA WITH GREATER INSTABILITY AND
850 MB WINDS INCREASE TO 30 KT. IT IS POSSIBLE AN MCS MAY DEVELOP
UPSTREAM AND MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST GA LATE IN THE DAY AS INDICATED
BY THE 00Z NSSL WRF MODEL. WE INCREASED POPS TO 50 PERCENT LATE
IN THE DAY IN COASTAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST GA.

CONVECTION WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE EVENING...GRADUALLY
TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PERSIST
ALOFT...WHILE AT THE SURFACE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS
A PIEDMONT TROUGH LINGERS JUST INLAND. THE RESULTING DEEP SOUTHWEST
FLOW WILL ALLOW ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RISING TO JUST ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE
MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT ROUNDING THE BASE OF
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE BEST
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA DUE TO ITS CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND GREATER ENERGY ALOFT...WITH THE FORECAST
REFLECTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY HERE...WITH A DIMINISHING
CHANCE FARTHER SOUTH INTO SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST WELL INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE
DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME STRONG OR SEVERE...ESPECIALLY IF ANY
ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR...WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING DAMAGING
WINDS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGES LITTLE...BUT
THERE APPEARS TO BE A BIT LESS IN THE WAY OF SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT
AND MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW.
WHILE THIS SHOULD RESULT IN LESS COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...WILL STILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE IN THE FORECAST
GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE PIEDMONT TROUGH AND TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SEA BREEZE. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE
LOWER TO MID 90S ON SATURDAY AND AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S ON
SUNDAY. LOWS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE LONG
TERM PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEEPEN OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES AND PERSIST THROUGH MID-WEEK. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL AS A PIEDMONT TROUGH PERSISTS
INLAND. THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE
LIKELY TO OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE
NEAR NORMAL...WITH HIGHS AROUND 90 OR IN THE LOWER 90S AND LOWS IN
THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AT BOTH TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON
AND POTENTIALLY LINGERING INTO EARLY EVENING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED AT LEAST TEMPORARILY AT BOTH
SITES. ALTHOUGH THERE IS FAIRLY STRONG UPPER FORCING TO SUPPORT
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THERE ARE
HINTS THAT KCHS WILL EXPERIENCE A STORM EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON
VS LATE AFTERNOON FOR KSAV. AT THIS POINT WE SIMPLY MAINTAINED
THE VICINITY THUNDERSTORMS AT BOTH SITES. NO SIGNIFICANT
RESTRICTIONS IN VSBY OR CEILING ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE CONVECTION.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TUESDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...WINDS WILL BE A BIT STRONGER ALONG THE CHARLESTON
COUNTY COAST TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH MODEST SWELL AND
ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS TODAY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020155
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
955 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE INLAND TROUGH
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM MCS HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPUR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
INTO THE 40-50 PERCENTILE FROM PEMBROKE AND STATESBORO TO TATTNALL
AND CANDLER COUNTIES. THIS IS SURROUNDED BY 20-30 POPS FROM
BEAUFORT TO SAVANNAH AND LUDOWICI AND NW TO RIDGEVILLE AND
HAMPTON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM. DCAPES ARE
STILL AS HIGH AS 1200-1300 J/KG AND MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING CINH...A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT INTO THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AS MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
RIDES TOWARD COASTAL SC. THAT ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A SW SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM ABOUT 1-4 AM.

SMOKEY CONDITIONS ALOFT ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...GIVING THE SKY THE
APPEARANCE OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AND ODD COLORS TO THE FULL
MOON. BUT ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THE RESULT OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON AVERAGE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...BUT A FEW
PLACES COULD HIT 70 WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE RECENTLY ADJUSTED THE KSAV TAF TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VCTS
DUE TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING NEAR THE AIRFIELD FROM 03-05Z.
IF A DIRECT IMPACT WERE TO OCCUR THAN A PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE NECESSARY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS.

ODDS FAVOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING
KCHS TONIGHT. BUT WE/LL AMEND IF NECESSARY.

FOR THURSDAY...PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
AND CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ARRIVE. SHOULD DIRECT
IMPACTS OCCUR THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A TEMPORARY BURST OF
HIGH WINDS WOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 10-15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2-4 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE. A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE
OFFSHORE WILL BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 020155
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
955 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE INLAND TROUGH
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM MCS HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPUR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
INTO THE 40-50 PERCENTILE FROM PEMBROKE AND STATESBORO TO TATTNALL
AND CANDLER COUNTIES. THIS IS SURROUNDED BY 20-30 POPS FROM
BEAUFORT TO SAVANNAH AND LUDOWICI AND NW TO RIDGEVILLE AND
HAMPTON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM. DCAPES ARE
STILL AS HIGH AS 1200-1300 J/KG AND MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING CINH...A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT INTO THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AS MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
RIDES TOWARD COASTAL SC. THAT ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A SW SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM ABOUT 1-4 AM.

SMOKEY CONDITIONS ALOFT ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...GIVING THE SKY THE
APPEARANCE OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AND ODD COLORS TO THE FULL
MOON. BUT ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THE RESULT OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON AVERAGE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...BUT A FEW
PLACES COULD HIT 70 WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE RECENTLY ADJUSTED THE KSAV TAF TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VCTS
DUE TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING NEAR THE AIRFIELD FROM 03-05Z.
IF A DIRECT IMPACT WERE TO OCCUR THAN A PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE NECESSARY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS.

ODDS FAVOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING
KCHS TONIGHT. BUT WE/LL AMEND IF NECESSARY.

FOR THURSDAY...PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
AND CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ARRIVE. SHOULD DIRECT
IMPACTS OCCUR THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A TEMPORARY BURST OF
HIGH WINDS WOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 10-15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2-4 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE. A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE
OFFSHORE WILL BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 020155
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
955 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE INLAND TROUGH
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM MCS HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPUR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
INTO THE 40-50 PERCENTILE FROM PEMBROKE AND STATESBORO TO TATTNALL
AND CANDLER COUNTIES. THIS IS SURROUNDED BY 20-30 POPS FROM
BEAUFORT TO SAVANNAH AND LUDOWICI AND NW TO RIDGEVILLE AND
HAMPTON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM. DCAPES ARE
STILL AS HIGH AS 1200-1300 J/KG AND MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING CINH...A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT INTO THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AS MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
RIDES TOWARD COASTAL SC. THAT ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A SW SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM ABOUT 1-4 AM.

SMOKEY CONDITIONS ALOFT ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...GIVING THE SKY THE
APPEARANCE OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AND ODD COLORS TO THE FULL
MOON. BUT ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THE RESULT OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON AVERAGE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...BUT A FEW
PLACES COULD HIT 70 WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE RECENTLY ADJUSTED THE KSAV TAF TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VCTS
DUE TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING NEAR THE AIRFIELD FROM 03-05Z.
IF A DIRECT IMPACT WERE TO OCCUR THAN A PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE NECESSARY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS.

ODDS FAVOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING
KCHS TONIGHT. BUT WE/LL AMEND IF NECESSARY.

FOR THURSDAY...PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
AND CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ARRIVE. SHOULD DIRECT
IMPACTS OCCUR THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A TEMPORARY BURST OF
HIGH WINDS WOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 10-15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2-4 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE. A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE
OFFSHORE WILL BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 020155
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
955 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ZONE...WHAT LOOKS TO BE THE INLAND TROUGH
AIDED BY OUTFLOW FROM DECAYING UPSTREAM MCS HAS SHIFTED INTO THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY ALOFT AND
UPPER DIFLUENCE WILL CONTINUE TO SPUR SCATTERED CONVECTION MAINLY
TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. WE HAVE ADJUSTED POPS
INTO THE 40-50 PERCENTILE FROM PEMBROKE AND STATESBORO TO TATTNALL
AND CANDLER COUNTIES. THIS IS SURROUNDED BY 20-30 POPS FROM
BEAUFORT TO SAVANNAH AND LUDOWICI AND NW TO RIDGEVILLE AND
HAMPTON. THIS SCENARIO IS WELL DEPICTED BY THE 18Z NAM. DCAPES ARE
STILL AS HIGH AS 1200-1300 J/KG AND MLCAPES OF 2000-2500 J/KG.
DESPITE THE NOCTURNAL ENVIRONMENT AND INCREASING CINH...A FEW OF
THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THROUGH 11 PM OR MIDNIGHT.
STRONG DOWNBURSTS OF WIND WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARD...ALONG WITH
FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS.

COVERAGE WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...BUT WILL ATTEMPT TO
SHIFT INTO THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA AS MID LEVEL PERTURBATION
RIDES TOWARD COASTAL SC. THAT ALONG WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM
COASTAL CONVERGENCE WITHIN A SW SYNOPTIC FLOW COULD TRIGGER
ISOLATED SHOWERS/T-STORMS FROM ABOUT 1-4 AM.

SMOKEY CONDITIONS ALOFT ORIGINATING FROM WESTERN CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NIGHT...GIVING THE SKY THE
APPEARANCE OF CIRRIFORM CLOUDINESS AND ODD COLORS TO THE FULL
MOON. BUT ACTUAL CLOUD COVER WILL GENERALLY BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
CLOUDY...THE RESULT OF SCATTERED TO BROKEN CUMULIFORM CLOUDS AND
SCATTERED TO OVERCAST MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS.

ON AVERAGE LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S...BUT A FEW
PLACES COULD HIT 70 WHERE HEAVIER RAINS OCCUR.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WE HAVE RECENTLY ADJUSTED THE KSAV TAF TO INCLUDE MENTION OF VCTS
DUE TO UPSTREAM CONVECTION REACHING NEAR THE AIRFIELD FROM 03-05Z.
IF A DIRECT IMPACT WERE TO OCCUR THAN A PERIOD OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS WOULD BE NECESSARY. STAY TUNED FOR POSSIBLE
AMENDMENTS.

ODDS FAVOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING
KCHS TONIGHT. BUT WE/LL AMEND IF NECESSARY.

FOR THURSDAY...PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
AND CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ARRIVE. SHOULD DIRECT
IMPACTS OCCUR THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A TEMPORARY BURST OF
HIGH WINDS WOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 10-15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 2-4 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE. A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE
OFFSHORE WILL BE STRONG OR EVEN SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 35 OR 40 KT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012326
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
726 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
OUR ATTENTION THIS EVENING IS FOCUSED ON A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS THAT IS
SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ALSO THAT HAS WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING FURTHER REMOVED FROM ITS STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL DWINDLE BEFORE
GETTING INTO OUR CWFA. HOWEVER...MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONFLUENT
ZONE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER SE GA TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH. THAT
ALO0NG WITH A LATE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FROM
THE SW WILL SPUR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SE GA THIS
EVENING. THEN LATER THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT 10PM-2AM THERE IS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DECAYING MCS
THAT ARRIVES. THIS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THIS FORECAST THOUGH IS BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GA WANING WITH NOCTURNAL EFFECTS. SHOULD
THAT ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WOULD
BE REQUIRED.

A VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON IS ONGOING...NOT ONLY LOCALLY BUT
ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE REGION FROM WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SE AND THEN RECURVING
NORTHWARD TO OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE SMOKE ALOFT IN
RESPONSE TO HUGE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS HAS BEEN GIVING THE SKY
A DIRTY APPEARANCE...AND THAT ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS AND
OPAQUENESS TO CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THAT WILL LIMIT HOW LOW TEMPS GET TONIGHT...AND WE/RE
BANKING ON LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...MAYBE A FEW
PLACES NEAR 70 IN NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ODDS FAVOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING
EITHER KSAV OR KCHS TONIGHT. BUT WE/LL AMEND IF NECESSARY.

FOR THURSDAY...PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
AND CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ARRIVE. SHOULD DIRECT
IMPACTS OCCUR THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A TEMPORARY BURST OF
HIGH WINDS WOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 OR 20 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-5 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 012326
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
726 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
OUR ATTENTION THIS EVENING IS FOCUSED ON A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS THAT IS
SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ALSO THAT HAS WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING FURTHER REMOVED FROM ITS STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL DWINDLE BEFORE
GETTING INTO OUR CWFA. HOWEVER...MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONFLUENT
ZONE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER SE GA TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH. THAT
ALO0NG WITH A LATE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FROM
THE SW WILL SPUR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SE GA THIS
EVENING. THEN LATER THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT 10PM-2AM THERE IS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DECAYING MCS
THAT ARRIVES. THIS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THIS FORECAST THOUGH IS BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GA WANING WITH NOCTURNAL EFFECTS. SHOULD
THAT ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WOULD
BE REQUIRED.

A VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON IS ONGOING...NOT ONLY LOCALLY BUT
ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE REGION FROM WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SE AND THEN RECURVING
NORTHWARD TO OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE SMOKE ALOFT IN
RESPONSE TO HUGE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS HAS BEEN GIVING THE SKY
A DIRTY APPEARANCE...AND THAT ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS AND
OPAQUENESS TO CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THAT WILL LIMIT HOW LOW TEMPS GET TONIGHT...AND WE/RE
BANKING ON LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...MAYBE A FEW
PLACES NEAR 70 IN NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
ODDS FAVOR THE UPSTREAM CONVECTION FALLING APART BEFORE REACHING
EITHER KSAV OR KCHS TONIGHT. BUT WE/LL AMEND IF NECESSARY.

FOR THURSDAY...PROBABILITIES ARE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO INCLUDE VCTS
AND CB CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH STRONGER
VERTICAL WIND FIELDS AND MID LEVEL ENERGY TO ARRIVE. SHOULD DIRECT
IMPACTS OCCUR THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS AND A TEMPORARY BURST OF
HIGH WINDS WOULD OCCUR...MAINLY IN THE 18-23Z TIME FRAME.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 OR 20 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-5 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 012247
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
647 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
OUR ATTENTION THIS EVENING IS FOCUSED ON A LINE OF CONVECTION THAT
HEADING THROUGH CENTRAL GA IN ASSOCIATION WITH MCS THAT IS
SHRINKING IN AREAL COVERAGE AND ALSO THAT HAS WARMING CLOUD TOPS.
THIS FEATURE IS BECOMING FURTHER REMOVED FROM ITS STRONGER MID
LEVEL FLOW AND THUS WE ANTICIPATE THAT IT WILL DWINDLE BEFORE
GETTING INTO OUR CWFA. HOWEVER...MESO-ANALYSIS REVEALS A CONFLUENT
ZONE ORIENTED EAST-WEST OVER SE GA TO THE WEST OF SAVANNAH. THAT
ALO0NG WITH A LATE PUSH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SEA BREEZE FROM
THE SW WILL SPUR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER SE GA THIS
EVENING. THEN LATER THIS EVENING FROM ABOUT 10PM-2AM THERE IS A
SUBTLE MID LEVEL IMPULSES IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE DECAYING MCS
THAT ARRIVES. THIS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ADDITIONAL ISOLATED
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. THIS FORECAST THOUGH IS BASED ON THE UPSTREAM
CONVECTION IN CENTRAL GA WANING WITH NOCTURNAL EFFECTS. SHOULD
THAT ACTIVITY HOLD TOGETHER LONGER THAN HIGHER RAIN CHANCES WOULD
BE REQUIRED.

A VERY INTERESTING PHENOMENON IS ONGOING...NOT ONLY LOCALLY BUT
ACROSS A LARGE SWATH OF THE REGION FROM WESTERN AND SOUTHERN
CANADA THROUGH THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE SE AND THEN RECURVING
NORTHWARD TO OFF NEW ENGLAND. THIS WOULD BE SMOKE ALOFT IN
RESPONSE TO HUGE CANADIAN WILDFIRES. THIS HAS BEEN GIVING THE SKY
A DIRTY APPEARANCE...AND THAT ALONG WITH VARYING AMOUNTS AND
OPAQUENESS TO CIRRUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT IN PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
SKIES. THAT WILL LIMIT HOW LOW TEMPS GET TONIGHT...AND WE/RE
BANKING ON LOWER AND MIDDLE 70S MOST COMMUNITIES...MAYBE A FEW
PLACES NEAR 70 IN NORMALLY COOLER SPOTS IF CLOUDS THIN OUT ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT FROM ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS RATHER LOW...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF. WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY OCCUR AFTER THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE REMAINS A DECENT GRADIENT BETWEEN SUB-TROPICAL
RIDGING TO THE SE AND SOUTH AND A PRONOUNCED TROUGH INLAND TO THE
NW AND NORTH. THIS ALONG WITH NOCTURNAL JETTING WILL KEEP SW
WINDS ELEVATED NEAR 15 OR 20 KT IN THE ATLANTIC AND 15 KT IN
CHARLESTON HARBOR FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...BEFORE LAND BREEZE
INFLUENCES CLOCK WINDS AROUND MORE TO THE WEST AT LOWER SPEEDS
LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 2-3 FT NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND 3-5 FT
FURTHER OUT...DROPPING ABOUT A FOOT LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY
DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A
PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE TWO FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH
THE PERIOD. IN FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH
MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE
WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATIONS AND NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY
AT TIMES IN FAVORED LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON
AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY
A FEW MODELS...HOWEVER NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD GENERALLY
HELP THIS ACTIVITY DECREASE IN COVERAGE...SO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE BLANKETING
THE AREA WHICH HAS MOVED ALL THE WAY FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA. THE SMOKE IS LOCATED IN THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THIS COULD SLIGHTLY
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT FROM ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS RATHER LOW...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF. WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY OCCUR AFTER THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011957
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
357 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN. THE
FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH SITUATED INLAND. A WEAK
SHORTWAVE WILL ROUND THE BASE OF A MID LEVEL TROUGH SITTING OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...PUSHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME PRECIPITATION TO MOVE INTO
OUR INLAND ZONES THIS EVENING AND LINGER INTO TONIGHT AS SHOWN BY
A FEW MODELS...HOWEVER NOCTURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD GENERALLY
HELP THIS ACTIVITY DECREASE IN COVERAGE...SO NO HIGHER THAN SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ARE FEATURED IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A THICK LAYER OF SMOKE BLANKETING
THE AREA WHICH HAS MOVED ALL THE WAY FROM WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN
CANADA. THE SMOKE IS LOCATED IN THE UPPER PARTS OF THE ATMOSPHERE
SO NO MAJOR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER THIS COULD SLIGHTLY
LIMIT RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
TO BE A COUPLE DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...MAINLY IN THE LOW TO MID
70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...A BROAD MID LVL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH LATE WEEK WITH A
SERIES OF H5 SHORTWAVES THAT ROUND ITS SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE SFC...THE AREA WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR A SOUTHWEST FLOW THAT BUILDS DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE AREA WITH PWATS CHARACTERIZED AROUND 2.0 INCHES EACH
DAY. THESE MOISTURE LEVELS ALONG WITH FORCING ALONG THE BASE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE TROUGH CENTERED WELL TO OUR NORTH WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD
ALSO BE STRONG OR SEVERE WHEN H5 SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A 20-30 KT LOW LVL JET SHIFTS OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
WE COULD SEE A SIMILAR RISK OF STRONGER TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON
FRIDAY AS THE PIEDMONT TROUGH MAKES A SLIGHT SHIFT TOWARD THE COAST
IN RESPONSE TO LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.
THE MAIN THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S EACH DAY.
HOWEVER...TEMPS COULD BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST ON THURSDAY DUE TO SMOKE FROM FIRES ORIGINATING IN CANADA.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 70S AWAY FROM THE COAST
EACH NIGHT.

SATURDAY...WEAK LOW PRESSURE SHOULD REMAIN OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...RESULTING IN STRONGER LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ALONG A SEABREEZE ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY.
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN IN THE FORECAST
FOR MOST AREAS...BUT EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY IN NORTHERN AREAS ALONG AN
INLAND MOVING SEABREEZE. IN GENERAL...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOW
90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR DIRECT IMPACT FROM ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS
IS RATHER LOW...SO HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF. WILL
AMEND IF NEEDED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ON
THURSDAY...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD LARGELY OCCUR AFTER THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

RIP CURRENTS...ASTRONOMICAL INFLUENCES FROM A FULL MOON ALONG WITH
SWELL OF 2 FT WITH A PERIOD OF 8-9 SECONDS WILL LEAD TO AN ENHANCED
PERIOD OF RIP CURRENTS ON THURSDAY. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
IS THEREFORE POSSIBLE ALONG THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...ECT
MARINE...DPB/ECT





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011710
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
110 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
COULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5
INCHES SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE BAND OF SMOKE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ALOFT
DUE TO THE WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS SHOWING UP
NICELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS INHIBITED THE NORMALLY QUICK
WARM UP...THUS HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS UPDATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS
KSAV. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011710
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
110 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
COULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5
INCHES SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE BAND OF SMOKE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ALOFT
DUE TO THE WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS SHOWING UP
NICELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS INHIBITED THE NORMALLY QUICK
WARM UP...THUS HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS UPDATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS
KSAV. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011710
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
110 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
COULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5
INCHES SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE BAND OF SMOKE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ALOFT
DUE TO THE WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS SHOWING UP
NICELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS INHIBITED THE NORMALLY QUICK
WARM UP...THUS HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS UPDATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS
KSAV. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011710
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
110 PM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF
THE AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE
WILL DROP INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES
COULD ALLOW FOR AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5
INCHES SHOULD KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED.

ALSO OF NOTE IS THE BAND OF SMOKE STREAMING INTO THE AREA ALOFT
DUE TO THE WILDFIRES ACROSS WESTERN CANADA...WHICH IS SHOWING UP
NICELY ON SATELLITE IMAGERY. THIS HAS INHIBITED THE NORMALLY QUICK
WARM UP...THUS HAVE TRENDED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES WITH
THIS UPDATE. HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH AROUND 90/LOW
90S.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH
THE BEST CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS
KSAV. HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE MENTION OUT IN THE TAF DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE IN DIRECT IMPACT AND WILL AMEND IF NEEDED. GUSTY SW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011437
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5 INCHES SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LITTLE RELIEF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN THE SEA BREEZE CREEPS INLAND.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011437
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5 INCHES SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LITTLE RELIEF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN THE SEA BREEZE CREEPS INLAND.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011437
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1037 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE OVERALL WEATHER
PATTERN AS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN
U.S. AT THE SURFACE...THE FORECAST AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH INLAND.
LITTLE COVERAGE IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON AS SUBSIDENCE TAKES PLACE BEHIND A DEPARTING SHORTWAVE.
LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP
INTO WESTERN SC/GA...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN THE TROUGH OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE INLAND. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES MAY ALLOW FOR
AN UPTICK IN ACTIVITY...HOWEVER PWATS OF ONLY 1.5 INCHES SHOULD
KEEP COVERAGE FAIRLY LIMITED. HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH LITTLE RELIEF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN THE SEA BREEZE CREEPS INLAND.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...ECT
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011137
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
737 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD SUBSIDENCE
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER COLUMN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. FAIRLY UNSEASONABLE PWATS BELOW 1.5" WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO GA/SC FROM THE NW. LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
EVEN SO...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
LITTLE RELIEF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN THE
SEA BREEZE CREEPS INLAND. WE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW TODAY...MAINLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 011137
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
737 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD SUBSIDENCE
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER COLUMN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. FAIRLY UNSEASONABLE PWATS BELOW 1.5" WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO GA/SC FROM THE NW. LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
EVEN SO...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
LITTLE RELIEF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN THE
SEA BREEZE CREEPS INLAND. WE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW TODAY...MAINLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 011137
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
737 AM EDT WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE ACROSS THE AREA WHILE A TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE PERSISTS INLAND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A RELATIVELY ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING
SHORTWAVE. THIS DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL PRODUCE BROAD SUBSIDENCE
AND MAINTAIN A DRIER COLUMN FOR AT LEAST THE FIRST PART OF THE
DAY. FAIRLY UNSEASONABLE PWATS BELOW 1.5" WILL SUPPORT MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES THIS MORNING AND LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION. LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON A SHORTWAVE WILL DROP INTO GA/SC FROM THE NW. LOW
AND MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BACK IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE...PRODUCING
SOMEWHAT MORE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION.
EVEN SO...THE SEA BREEZE WILL REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE COAST BY THE
WESTERLY FLOW. THUS ANY CONVECTION WOULD LIKELY BE LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON OR EARLY THIS EVENING ONCE THE SHORTWAVE GETS CLOSER TO
THE AREA AND POTENTIALLY INTERACTS WITH THE SEA BREEZE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE LOW TO MIDDLE 90S WITH
LITTLE RELIEF ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST UNTIL LATE DAY WHEN THE
SEA BREEZE CREEPS INLAND. WE KEPT POPS FAIRLY LOW TODAY...MAINLY
20 TO 30 PERCENT WITH HIGHEST VALUES ACROSS SOUTHEAST GA AND THE
COASTAL WATERS.

DUE TO THE SHORTWAVE IN THE PROXIMITY THIS EVENING...SOME
CONVECTION COULD LINGER AFTER DARK. HOWEVER WITH THE LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING...THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD STABILIZE RELATIVELY
QUICKLY AND BRING PRECIPITATION TO AN END OVER LAND AREAS. SOME
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD LINGER OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
HOWEVER. LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...THE REGION WILL BE POSITIONED ALONG
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WHILE AT THE
SURFACE A PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF THE AREA AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. DEEPENING
MOISTURE PROFILES DUE TO A SOUTHWEST FLOW COMBINED WITH A
DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A
GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...MAINLY
DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR A FEW OF THE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE...AS IT APPEARS THAT SOME
ORGANIZED CONVECTION COULD TRANSLATE INTO THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
UPPER DISTURBANCE. THE PRIMARY THREAT APPEARS TO BE DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS AND MENTION WILL BE ADDED TO THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.
HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 90S WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S INLAND FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A LACK OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL
LIMIT THE COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT CONTINUED DEEP
MOISTURE PROFILES...THE SEA BREEZE AND THE NEARBY PROXIMITY OF THE
PIEDMONT TROUGH WILL STILL SUPPORT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE AREA. THE BEST COVERAGE SHOULD BE UP IN THE CHARLESTON
TRI-COUNTY AREA. WHILE CONVECTION WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...CANNOT RULE OUT ISOLATED COVERAGE
PERSISTING WELL INTO THE NIGHT...WITH A GREATER FOCUS OVER THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM INTO THE LOWER TO
MID 90S FOR HIGHS...WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S.

SATURDAY...THE SEA BREEZE APPEARS TO BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR ANY
CONVECTION...WITH THE STRONGEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA WHERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
ELSEWHERE...CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE ISOLATED IN COVERAGE AT BEST.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 90S FOR MOST AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE WEEKEND WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE AN INLAND TROUGH AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE ATLANTIC. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE RATHER MINIMAL ON SUNDAY WITH
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT. BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MODELS ARE TRENDING A BIT WETTER AS THEY INDICATE MORE IN THE
WAY OF TROUGHING ALOFT. THIS WILL NOT ONLY SUPPORT AT LEAST
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...BUT COULD ALSO RESULT
IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT KCHS AND KSAV THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.
THE POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS APPEARS FAIRLY LOW TODAY THOUGH THE BEST
CHANCE WOULD BE LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING ACROSS KSAV.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE
IN MAINLY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH MONDAY...ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY DOMINATE
THE WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH A PIEDMONT TROUGH
SITUATED INLAND. A TIGHTENED PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO
FEATURES WILL KEEP WINDS FAIRLY ELEVATED THROUGH THE PERIOD. IN
FACT...IT APPEARS THAT CONDITIONS COULD REACH MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA OVER A PORTION OF THE WATERS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND
NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JETTING WILL ALLOW SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS TO
PEAK NEAR 15-20 KTS...WITH 25 KTS LOCALLY AT TIMES IN FAVORED
LOCATIONS. SEAS WILL BE 2-4 FEET ON AVERAGE...BUT COULD REACH 5 FT
IN THE OUTER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS DURING NOCTURNAL SURGES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ




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