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000
FXUS62 KCHS 010623
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS HAD MVFR CEILINGS AT 06Z INITIALIZATION...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY IN THE 00Z-06Z MONDAY PORTION OF THE TAFS...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS IFR VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL GIVEN LATEST MODEL DATA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING
BETWEEN A STRONG INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST SUFFACE/LAPS ANALYIS...OBS...
AND 00Z MODEL DATA ALL SUGGEST A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
THE BEST FIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 25G30 KT FLOW FROM THE NE WITH
SEAS 6-8 FT OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND UP TO 11 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010623
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS HAD MVFR CEILINGS AT 06Z INITIALIZATION...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY IN THE 00Z-06Z MONDAY PORTION OF THE TAFS...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS IFR VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL GIVEN LATEST MODEL DATA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING
BETWEEN A STRONG INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST SUFFACE/LAPS ANALYIS...OBS...
AND 00Z MODEL DATA ALL SUGGEST A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
THE BEST FIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 25G30 KT FLOW FROM THE NE WITH
SEAS 6-8 FT OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND UP TO 11 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 010623
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS HAD MVFR CEILINGS AT 06Z INITIALIZATION...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY IN THE 00Z-06Z MONDAY PORTION OF THE TAFS...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS IFR VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL GIVEN LATEST MODEL DATA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING
BETWEEN A STRONG INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST SUFFACE/LAPS ANALYIS...OBS...
AND 00Z MODEL DATA ALL SUGGEST A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
THE BEST FIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 25G30 KT FLOW FROM THE NE WITH
SEAS 6-8 FT OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND UP TO 11 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010623
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
123 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS HAD MVFR CEILINGS AT 06Z INITIALIZATION...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE EARLY SUNDAY...THEN
PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE. THIS IS THE
RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE MAINTAINED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT. FINALLY IN THE 00Z-06Z MONDAY PORTION OF THE TAFS...
CONFIDENCE IS VERY GOOD THAT LIFR CIGS AND PERHAPS IFR VSBYS WILL
PREVAIL GIVEN LATEST MODEL DATA.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING
BETWEEN A STRONG INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. LATEST SUFFACE/LAPS ANALYIS...OBS...
AND 00Z MODEL DATA ALL SUGGEST A HIGH END SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS
THE BEST FIT FOR THE OVERNIGHT. 25G30 KT FLOW FROM THE NE WITH
SEAS 6-8 FT OVER NEAR SHORE WATERS AND UP TO 11 FT WELL OFFSHORE.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350-
     352-354-374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 010322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS WILL BEGIN THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING BETWEEN
A ROBUST INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO NEAR
OR GREATER THAN GALE FORCE AT BUOY 41008...FT. PULASKI AND TYBEE
ISLAND SINCE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SOLID SCA/S
REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON COUNTY 0-20 NM
ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER THOSE
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR AMZ350 LATER ON. THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO DO SO WITH THE WEDGE
STILL IN PLACE. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES UNTIL 5 AM FOR
AMZ253-354. THE OUTER GA WATERS SHOULD SEE THE TROUGH PASS
OVERNIGHT...THUS THE GALE WILL END BY 2 AM AND WILL TRANSITION TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THAT TIME. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT
LOW STRATUS DECKS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RAIN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 NM AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS WILL BEGIN THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING BETWEEN
A ROBUST INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO NEAR
OR GREATER THAN GALE FORCE AT BUOY 41008...FT. PULASKI AND TYBEE
ISLAND SINCE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SOLID SCA/S
REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON COUNTY 0-20 NM
ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER THOSE
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR AMZ350 LATER ON. THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO DO SO WITH THE WEDGE
STILL IN PLACE. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES UNTIL 5 AM FOR
AMZ253-354. THE OUTER GA WATERS SHOULD SEE THE TROUGH PASS
OVERNIGHT...THUS THE GALE WILL END BY 2 AM AND WILL TRANSITION TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THAT TIME. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT
LOW STRATUS DECKS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RAIN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 NM AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 010322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS WILL BEGIN THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING BETWEEN
A ROBUST INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO NEAR
OR GREATER THAN GALE FORCE AT BUOY 41008...FT. PULASKI AND TYBEE
ISLAND SINCE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SOLID SCA/S
REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON COUNTY 0-20 NM
ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER THOSE
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR AMZ350 LATER ON. THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO DO SO WITH THE WEDGE
STILL IN PLACE. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES UNTIL 5 AM FOR
AMZ253-354. THE OUTER GA WATERS SHOULD SEE THE TROUGH PASS
OVERNIGHT...THUS THE GALE WILL END BY 2 AM AND WILL TRANSITION TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THAT TIME. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT
LOW STRATUS DECKS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RAIN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 NM AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010322
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1022 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A ZONAL WEST-SW FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT WHILE AT THE SURFACE WE
FIND A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE INLAND AND A WELL PRONOUNCED
COASTAL TROUGH OUT NEAR THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. THE
LARGE SCALE FLOW CHANGES LITTLE OVERNIGHT...WHILE THE WEDGE
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY BUT HOLDS FIRM...WHILE THE COASTAL TROUGH
ATTEMPTS TO BREAK THROUGH THE COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT STRUGGLES TO
DO SO.

FORCING FOR ASCENT IS PROVIDED BY A 40-45 KT LOW LEVEL JET PASSING
DIRECTLY THROUGH THE CWFA AND A 50-60 KT MID LEVEL JET PASSING
JUST NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY TO THE
TROUGH OFFSHORE AND ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE ON VARIOUS LEVELS WILL
SUPPORT LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS THROUGH THE NIGHT. MUCH OF THE
RAIN WILL BE LIGHT AND FOR NOW WE DON/T SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN A
FEW HUNDREDTHS TO MAYBE ONE OR TWO TENTHS OF IN INCH. EARLY ON THE
BEST CHANCES WILL BE ALONG THE NW TIER IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE LOW
LEVEL JET PASSING THROUGH...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE THEN DIVIDED
INTO TWO QUADS LATE. THE FIRST WILL BE AGAIN ALONG THE NW TIER
WERE THE BEST ISENTROPIC LIFT IS FOUND...WITH A SECOND AREA ON THE
BEACHES WHERE THE BEST LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED.

TEMPS WON/T CHANGE MUCH GIVEN BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING AND THE
INSULATING EFFECTS OF THE OVERCAST CLOUD COVER. THIS EQUATES TO
MIN TEMPS IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 40S FOR THE BULK OF THE REGION.
HOWEVER...A FEW UPPER 30S WILL SNEAK INTO THE NW ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS WILL BEGIN THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. WINDS
WILL BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS
BETWEEN AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE
NEARBY ATLANTIC. BASED ON RECENT VWP DATA AND MOST RECENT SOUNDING
INFORMATION WE HAVE INCLUDED LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR AT BOTH SITES
OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THERE HAS BEEN AND WILL REMAIN A TIGHT PINCHING BETWEEN
A ROBUST INLAND WEDGE AND A SHARP COASTAL TROUGH NEAR THE WESTERN
SIDE OF THE GULF STREAM. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO NEAR
OR GREATER THAN GALE FORCE AT BUOY 41008...FT. PULASKI AND TYBEE
ISLAND SINCE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE CONTINUED THE GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SOLID SCA/S
REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON COUNTY 0-20 NM
ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER THOSE
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR AMZ350 LATER ON. THE TROUGH WILL ATTEMPT TO BREAK ACROSS THE
COOLER SHELF WATERS BUT WILL STRUGGLE TO DO SO WITH THE WEDGE
STILL IN PLACE. THUS WE HAVE EXTENDED THE GALES UNTIL 5 AM FOR
AMZ253-354. THE OUTER GA WATERS SHOULD SEE THE TROUGH PASS
OVERNIGHT...THUS THE GALE WILL END BY 2 AM AND WILL TRANSITION TO
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER THAT TIME. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT
LOW STRATUS DECKS LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE
WITH THE RAIN TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 NM AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 5 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 010001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
701 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH THE
LOWER LEVELS VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. A
SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH A JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING
THROUGH WE LOOK FOR A FAIRLY WET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
WE TWEAKED SOME OF THE POPS...TO CARRY LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
EVERYWHERE. WE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...AND MAINTAINED SMALL QPF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS WILL BEGIN THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS BETWEEN
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH NOT ADDRESS IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS THERE IS
A LOW END CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 06-09Z...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST
BUT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST IMPRESSIVE PINCHING HAS MOVED
ABOUT 5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
BUOY 41008 SINCE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING
DATA WE CONTI8NUED THE GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SOLID
SCA/S REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON COUNTY 0-20
NM ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER THOSE
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR AMZ350 LATER ON. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 NM AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 010001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
701 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH THE
LOWER LEVELS VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO ADVECT INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE
BOUNDARY LAYER...RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. AS THE LOWER LEVEL FLOW SHIFTS TO THE
SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT
WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD THE MIDLANDS. A
SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL BE OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL ZONES IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL
TROUGH AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WHEN COMBINED WITH A JET
MAX MOVING THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT AND A LOW LEVEL JET CROSSING
THROUGH WE LOOK FOR A FAIRLY WET NIGHT ACROSS THE FORECAST REGION.
WE TWEAKED SOME OF THE POPS...TO CARRY LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS
EVERYWHERE. WE ADJUSTED SOME TEMPS AND DEW POINTS BASED ON RECENT
TRENDS...AND MAINTAINED SMALL QPF UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. LOWS WILL
DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BOTH AIRFIELDS WILL BEGIN THE EVENING WITH MVFR CEILINGS...WHICH
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE OVERNIGHT OR EARLY
SUNDAY...THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE VALID CYCLE.
THIS IS THE RESULT OF ABUNDANT MOISTURE TRAPPED BENEATH THE WEDGE
INVERSION...AIDED BY ISENTROPIC LIFT AT VARIOUS LEVELS. IN
ADDITION...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT DUE TO STRONGER VERTICAL
WIND FIELDS AND THE PROXIMITY TO A NEARBY COASTAL TROUGH WILL
GENERATE PERIODS OF RAIN AND DRIZZLE THROUGH 00Z MONDAY.WINDS WILL
BE A LITTLE GUSTY TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE PATTERN TIGHTENS BETWEEN
AN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE AND THE TROUGH OVER THE NEARBY
ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH NOT ADDRESS IN THE LATEST SET OF TAFS THERE IS
A LOW END CHANCE OF WIND SHEAR FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH ABOUT 06-09Z...AND WE WILL MAINTAIN A CLOSE
WEATHER WATCH FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST
BUT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST IMPRESSIVE PINCHING HAS MOVED
ABOUT 5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
BUOY 41008 SINCE MID AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING
DATA WE CONTI8NUED THE GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352-354-374. SOLID
SCA/S REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON COUNTY 0-20
NM ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN FURTHER THOSE
WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL MAY BE REQUIRED
FOR AMZ350 LATER ON. MARINERS ARE ADVISED THAT LOW STRATUS DECKS
LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WILL COMBINE WITH THE RAIN TO
REDUCE VISIBILITIES UNDER 2 NM AT TIMES.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282241
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
541 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH 700
MB VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM
SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 850 MB FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS. A SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH
AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY FAR INLAND. LOWS
MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST
BUT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST IMPRESSIVE PINCHING HAS MOVED
ABOUT 5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
BUOY 41008 AT 4 AND 5 PM. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE HAVE RAISED A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352 AND AMZ354 TIL 1 AM
SUNDAY TO GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING GALE FOR AMZ374.
SOLID SCA/S REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON
COUNTY 0-20 NM ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER THOSE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ350 LATER ON.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282241
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
541 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH 700
MB VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM
SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 850 MB FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS. A SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH
AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY FAR INLAND. LOWS
MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST
BUT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST IMPRESSIVE PINCHING HAS MOVED
ABOUT 5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
BUOY 41008 AT 4 AND 5 PM. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE HAVE RAISED A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352 AND AMZ354 TIL 1 AM
SUNDAY TO GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING GALE FOR AMZ374.
SOLID SCA/S REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON
COUNTY 0-20 NM ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER THOSE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ350 LATER ON.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 282241
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
541 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH 700
MB VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM
SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 850 MB FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS. A SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH
AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY FAR INLAND. LOWS
MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST
BUT IS SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND MOST IMPRESSIVE PINCHING HAS MOVED
ABOUT 5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 15 TO 20 NM
OFF THE COAST. AS A RESULT WE HAVE SEEN GUSTS TO GALE FORCE AT
BUOY 41008 AT 4 AND 5 PM. BASED ON THIS AND RECENT SOUNDING DATA
WE HAVE RAISED A GALE WARNING FOR AMZ352 AND AMZ354 TIL 1 AM
SUNDAY TO GO ALONG WITH AN ALREADY PRE-EXISTING GALE FOR AMZ374.
SOLID SCA/S REMAIN FOR THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND CHARLESTON
COUNTY 0-20 NM ATLANTIC WATERS. BUT THE PINCHING WILL TIGHTEN
FURTHER THOSE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING AND A GALE WARNING STILL
MAY BE REQUIRED FOR AMZ350 LATER ON.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH 700
MB VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM
SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 850 MB FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS. A SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH
AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY FAR INLAND. LOWS
MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST BUT IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS SURFACE WINDS HAS MOVED ABOUT
5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 20 NM OFF THE
COAST. WE HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE AT BUOY 41008
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 NM
FROM SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE TROUGH SHIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER GALE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS WHERE THE
GALE WARNING CONTINUES SINCE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
INLAND FROM THOSE WATERS. ALTHOUGH WE NOT HAVE GALE WARNINGS OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL/JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ




000
FXUS62 KCHS 282121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
421 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER THE REGION
THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. A COLD FRONT WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA LATE MONDAY THEN
STALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS FROM THE NORTH. THE FRONT WILL LIFT BACK NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AS A WARM FRONT LATE TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT THROUGH
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SITS OFF THE GA COAST. ALOFT THE
LOW-LEVEL RIDGE WILL PUSH STEADILY EAST WITH THE FLOW BENEATH 700
MB VEERING AND STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL ADVECT
INCREASING MOISTURE ABOVE THE COOL STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER...
RESULTING IN ADDITIONAL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND LIGHT TO MODERATE
RAIN. AN INITIAL BAND OF RAIN IS SHIFTING SLOWLY NORTH FROM
SOUTHEAST GA INTO SOUTHERN SC THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE 850 MB FLOW
SHIFTS TO THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING...THE REGION OF BEST
ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SHIFT INTO THE INLAND GA/SC ZONES TOWARD
THE MIDLANDS. A SECONDARY REGION OF BETTER MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
WILL BE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS IN PROXIMITY TO THE COASTAL TROUGH
AS IT SHIFTS CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE BUMPED POPS INTO THE
CATEGORICAL RANGE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING
THEN TRANSITION TO CATEGORICAL POPS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH-END CHANCE TO LOW-END LIKELY FAR INLAND. LOWS
MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER 30S FAR NW DUE TO COLD ADVECTION BUT OTHER
AREAS WILL REMAIN IN THE 40S DUE TO EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER AND
BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY...A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL ALOFT OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES...CAUSING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT OFF
THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND/NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AS THIS
OCCURS...A COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL SHIFT A BIT
CLOSER TO THE SHORELINE...WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING IT MOVING JUST
INLAND LATE IN THE DAY. HOWEVER...THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEDGE
INTO THE REGION ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY.

ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND DEEP MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A GOOD COVERAGE OF
RAIN IN THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PROBABILITIES AS HIGH
AS 60-80 PERCENT. THE ASSOCIATED DIABATIC COOLING WILL KEEP THE
WEDGE WELL ENTRENCHED OVER THE AREA DURING THIS TIME...POSSIBLY
RESULTING IN FALLING TEMPERATURES IN THE MORNING WHEN PRECIPITATION
WILL BE MOST WIDESPREAD. LATE DAY HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 40S IN NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE AREA AND LOWER/MID 50S NEAR
THE COAST AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA...ALTHOUGH IF THE
COASTAL TROUGH DOES MOVE INLAND TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST COULD BE
EVEN WARMER.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO ERODE AS THE
COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. CONTINUED ISENTROPIC
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...BUT THE
DEVELOPING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT THE MID-LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT BRINGING AN END
TO THE RAIN. HOWEVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ABUNDANT AND
COULD RESULT IN PATCHY FOG AND DRIZZLE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN
THE LOWER TO MID 40S.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY MONDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION PERIOD
BEFORE A FRONT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY THEN DROPS
SOUTH AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT AND STALLS SOUTH OF THE
AREA. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN IN NORTH AND NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE DEVELOPING FRONT
MONDAY AFTERNOON. RAIN CHANCES WILL INCREASE A BIT MONDAY NIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES IN VICINITY OF THE DESCENDING
FRONT...WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES ACROSS INTERIOR SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH
CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 40S NORTH TO THE MID 50S SOUTH.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO WEDGE FROM THE NORTH...BUT
AS THE PARENT HIGH SHIFTS OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST THE STALLED
FRONT TO THE SOUTH WILL LIFT BACK NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATE IN
THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT. THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING
THE DAY WITH PROBABILITIES IN THE 20-30 PERCENT RANGE...HIGHEST
NORTH AHEAD OF THE LIFTING WARM FRONT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW QUICKLY THE WEDGE ERODES AND THE WARM FRONT
LIFTS NORTH. FOR NOW...THE FORECAST INDICATES HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 60S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MUCH OF SUNDAY NIGHT AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING
ADDITIONAL FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THURSDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COASTAL TROUGH REMAINS CENTERED OFF THE GA COAST BUT IS
SHIFTING SLOWLY TOWARD THE COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
STRONGEST PRESSURE GRADIENT AND THUS SURFACE WINDS HAS MOVED ABOUT
5-10 NM CLOSER TO THE COAST...NOW APPROXIMATELY 20 NM OFF THE
COAST. WE HAVE SEEN SOME GUSTS CLOSE TO GALE FORCE AT BUOY 41008
MID-AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE AT THEIR HIGHEST BETWEEN 15 AND 25 NM
FROM SHORE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE THE TROUGH SHIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IT IS DIFFICULT TO TELL WHETHER GALE
CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE OFFSHORE GA WATERS WHERE THE
GALE WARNING CONTINUES SINCE THE GRADIENT APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
INLAND FROM THOSE WATERS. ALTHOUGH WE NOT HAVE GALE WARNINGS OVER
NEAR SHORE WATERS...A FEW GUSTS NEAR 35 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY OVERNIGHT AS
THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND MOVES INLAND.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...BUT A BRIEF NORTHEAST SURGE IS EXPECTED MONDAY
NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON
TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER
SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL/JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE ACTIVITY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH...BUT WE DO HAVE 20-30 POPS SPREADING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE ACTIVITY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH...BUT WE DO HAVE 20-30 POPS SPREADING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE ACTIVITY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH...BUT WE DO HAVE 20-30 POPS SPREADING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281830
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE ACTIVITY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH...BUT WE DO HAVE 20-30 POPS SPREADING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A STRENGTHENING WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH AND
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFF THE SC/GA COAST IS MAINTAINING A
FEED OF DEEP MOISTURE ABOVE THE SURFACE. AS MOISTURE INCREASES OUT
OF THE SOUTH WHILE THE COOL STABLE LAYER PERSISTS AT THE
SURFACE...CLOUD DECKS WILL SPREAD AND LOWER. BOTH THE MODELS AND
CLIMATOLOGY FOR THIS PATTERN ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR CEILINGS
LOWERING TO MVFR AT BOTH SITES AT SOME POINT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
IFR CEILINGS DEVELOPING LATER THIS EVENING OR OVERNIGHT. CEILING
WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR INTO MUCH OF SUNDAY GIVEN THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE PATTERN.

WE EXPECT TO SEE LIGHT RAIN SPREADING ACROSS KSAV THIS AFTERNOON
THOUGH VSBY SHOULD REMAIN VFR. LATER TONIGHT A BETTER CHANCE FOR
RAIN AT BOTH SITES AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE LIFTS THROUGH...AND ONCE
WINDS SETTLE DOWN LATE TONIGHT THE VSBY COULD DROP TO MVFR WITH
SOME OF THE RAIN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS A WARM FRONT. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281642
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1142 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE ACTIVITY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH...BUT WE DO HAVE 20-30 POPS SPREADING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS CAME IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AGAIN ON THE 06Z RUN. WE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH VCSH AT KSAV FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS PREVAILING AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH AT KCHS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DESPITE A COMMON
THEME OF INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION. OUR MAIN THEME WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING TODAY...MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD BET AT KSAV AFTER MID AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT PER 06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KCHS WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR A WHILE LONGER AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281642
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1142 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE HAS RESULTED IN SCATTERED PRECIP ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST GA
AREAS. FARTHER NORTH...DRIER AIR WILL ERODE THE ACTIVITY AS IT
SHIFTS NORTH...BUT WE DO HAVE 20-30 POPS SPREADING NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON AS A FEW SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY IN FROM THE SOUTH. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS CAME IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AGAIN ON THE 06Z RUN. WE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH VCSH AT KSAV FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS PREVAILING AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH AT KCHS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DESPITE A COMMON
THEME OF INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION. OUR MAIN THEME WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING TODAY...MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD BET AT KSAV AFTER MID AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT PER 06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KCHS WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR A WHILE LONGER AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK OUT SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT
WARM PROCESS RAINS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT
BETWEEN 950 MB AND 750 MB. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BUT WE LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND S OF I-16 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON BY LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-16. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS CAME IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AGAIN ON THE 06Z RUN. WE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH VCSH AT KSAV FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS PREVAILING AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH AT KCHS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DESPITE A COMMON
THEME OF INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION. OUR MAIN THEME WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING TODAY...MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD BET AT KSAV AFTER MID AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT PER 06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KCHS WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR A WHILE LONGER AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 281210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK OUT SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT
WARM PROCESS RAINS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT
BETWEEN 950 MB AND 750 MB. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BUT WE LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND S OF I-16 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON BY LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-16. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS CAME IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AGAIN ON THE 06Z RUN. WE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH VCSH AT KSAV FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS PREVAILING AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH AT KCHS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DESPITE A COMMON
THEME OF INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION. OUR MAIN THEME WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING TODAY...MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD BET AT KSAV AFTER MID AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT PER 06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KCHS WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR A WHILE LONGER AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK OUT SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT
WARM PROCESS RAINS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT
BETWEEN 950 MB AND 750 MB. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BUT WE LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND S OF I-16 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON BY LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-16. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS CAME IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AGAIN ON THE 06Z RUN. WE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH VCSH AT KSAV FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS PREVAILING AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH AT KCHS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DESPITE A COMMON
THEME OF INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION. OUR MAIN THEME WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING TODAY...MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD BET AT KSAV AFTER MID AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT PER 06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KCHS WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR A WHILE LONGER AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 281210
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
710 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY
THIS MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS
SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK OUT SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT
WARM PROCESS RAINS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT
BETWEEN 950 MB AND 750 MB. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BUT WE LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND S OF I-16 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON BY LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-16. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND CONTINUED
ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT CHANCES FOR
LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE HAVE BUMPED
POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT BEAUFORT
COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE AND
ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS CAME IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY AGAIN ON THE 06Z RUN. WE
MAINTAINED PREVIOUS TRENDS WITH VCSH AT KSAV FROM LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON...THEN PERHAPS PREVAILING AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT WITH INCREASING MOISTURE DEPTH AND SPEED CONVERGENCE
IN THE LOW LEVELS. VCSH AT KCHS LATE IN THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

CIGS ARE TRICKY WITH SOME MODEL DISCREPANCIES DESPITE A COMMON
THEME OF INCREASING MOISTURE UNDER A STRENGTHENING WEDGE
INVERSION. OUR MAIN THEME WAS A GRADUAL LOWERING TODAY...MVFR
OR LOWER CIGS A GOOD BET AT KSAV AFTER MID AFTERNOON...THEN
LIKELY TONIGHT WITH IFR AFTER MIDNIGHT PER 06Z FORECAST SOUNDINGS.
KCHS WILL HANG ONTO SOME LOWER LEVEL DRIER AIR A WHILE LONGER AND
MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY OVERNIGHT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280946
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
446 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DRY WEATHER PREVAILING OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SE
GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S AND LOW TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING TO THE 35-40 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW INLAND AREAS COULD DROP A BIT COOLER BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK OUT SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT WARM
PROCESS RAINS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT
BETWEEN 950 MB AND 750 MB. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BUT WE LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND S OF I-16 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON BY LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-16. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT
BEAUFORT COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE
AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAINS MAY ACCENTUATE IFR CIGS AROUND KSAV SOMETIME TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF INCLUSIONS THIS FAR OUT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS COMING IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY ON THE 00Z RUN...WE INTRODUCED
VCSH AT KCHS BY THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON VCSH AT KSAV TO
PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAINS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
 GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
    FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280946
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
446 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DRY WEATHER PREVAILING OVERNIGHT WITH FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS STREAMING FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS SE
GEORGIA AND THE COASTAL CAROLINAS. TEMPS HAVE BEEN IN THE UPPER 30S
TO LOWER 40S AND LOW TEMPS EVENTUALLY FALLING TO THE 35-40 DEGREE
RANGE. A FEW INLAND AREAS COULD DROP A BIT COOLER BUT AT THIS TIME
IT LOOKS LIKE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DAMPEN BETTER RADIATIONAL
COOLING. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
FROM THE NORTH.

A WEAK MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST EARLY THIS
MORNING WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A 110 KT 250 MB JET SEGMENT. THIS SHORT
WAVE IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA TODAY...ENHANCING
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTHWARD ACROSS THE PANHANDLE. IN RESPONSE TO
THIS WEAK FEATURE...MODELS PAINT INCREASING MOISTURE FLUX FROM THE
ATLC ACROSS SE GEORGIA TODAY WHILE A STRONG 1044 MB HIGH BUILDS
OVER SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND TO THE DELMARVA. ISENTROPIC ASCENT ALONG
THE 290K AND 295K SURFACES ALONG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LOOKS SUFFICIENT TO BREAK OUT SOME SCATTERED BUT LIGHT WARM
PROCESS RAINS ACROSS SOUTH GEORGIA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON AT THE NOSE OF THE ADVANCING MOISTURE/THETA-E GRADIENT
BETWEEN 950 MB AND 750 MB. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED DUE
TO PLENTY OF DRY AIR TO OVERCOME BUT WE LOW END CHANCE POPS ALONG
AND S OF I-16 LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON WITH 30-50 POPS SOUTH OF
CHARLESTON BY LATER IN THE DAY...HIGHEST SOUTH OF I-16. RAINFALL
AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO MUCH TODAY BUT THE THICKER
CLOUDS AND DAMPNESS OVER GEORGIA ZONES LIKELY TO KEEP TEMPS IN THE
40S ALL DAY. AS THE WEDGE STRENGTHENS DURING THE DAY THE REMAINDER
OF THE FORECAST AREA COULD ALSO REMAIN IN THE 40S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY BY AFTERNOON NORTHERN ZONES. IT WILL BE BREEZY
TO WINDY ON THE BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS WITH BUILDING SURF.

TONIGHT...A COASTAL TROUGH WILL TAKING ON BETTER DEFINITION OFF
THE COAST WHILE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/COASTAL CONVERGENCE AND
CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT/WEAK UPPER DIFLUENCE KEEPING DECENT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINS OVER INLAND AREAS TO THE WEST OF I-95. WE
HAVE BUMPED POPS UP TO LIKELY ALONG GEORGIA COASTAL ZONES TO ABOUT
BEAUFORT COUNTY WHERE MODELS ALL AGREE THAT CHANNELED CONVERGENCE
AND ENHANCED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FEED WILL MAXIMIZE AT SOME POINT
OVERNIGHT. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS...DIMINISHING LATE. LOW TEMPS MOST
AREAS WILL BE AROUND 40 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A WEST/SOUTHWEST
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE
SFC...A FAIRLY STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST INLAND FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH SLIDES NORTH OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THE SETUP WILL FAVOR CHANCES OF SHOWERS INTO SUNDAY
EVENING WHILE ISENTROPIC ASCENT PERSISTS OVER THE AREA AND MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE IS ENHANCED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH ALONG THE SOUTH
CAROLINA COAST. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY SUNDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO
CLOUD COVER...SHOWERS...AND THE WEDGE INLAND. IN GENERAL...TEMPS
SHOULD RANGE IN THE MID/UPPER 40S INLAND TO LOW/MID 50S ALONG THE
COAST...WARMEST IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT THE WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH SHIFTS
FURTHER NORTH AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SHOWERS SHOULD THEREFORE TAPER
OFF...BEGINNING IN SOUTHERN AREAS SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. OVERNIGHT
LOWS REMAIN MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN THE LOW/MID 40S
AWAY FROM THE COAST.

MONDAY...A BRIEF WARMUP SHOULD OCCUR WHILE WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PREVAILS OVER THE AREA IN ADVANCE OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH LATE IN THE DAY. TEMPS SHOULD PEAK IN THE
MID 60S NORTH TO LOW 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT MOISTURE WILL
NOT BE AS DEEP AS PREVIOUS DAYS...THUS LIMITING OVERALL COVERAGE.
THE FRONT SHOULD STALL NEAR THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA STATE LINE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT...WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
LOW TEMPS WILL BE NOTICEABLY MORE MILD THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT...IN
THE LOW/MID 50S OVER MOST AREAS.

TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO WEDGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA
EARLY...BEFORE A STATIONARY FRONT LIFTS NORTH AS A WARM FRONT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TO FORECAST AND WILL
BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE POSITION OF THE WARM FRONT OVER THE
COURSE OF THE DAY. CLOUD COVER AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL ALSO POSE SOME
LIMITING FACTORS ON HOW WARM CONDITIONS WILL GET DURING TYPICAL PEAK
HEATING HOURS. AT THIS TIME...HAVE TRENDED WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 60S FOR MOST AREAS...AND MAINTAINED LOW 70S
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARMER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
SFC HEATING AS WELL AS SOME COMPRESSIONAL HEATING SUPPORT OVERALL
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID/UPPER 70S WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE THE ONSET
OF SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STRONG FORCING WILL
BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS OVER INLAND AREAS EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE COLD
FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...WITH PERIODS OF
MODERATE SHOWERS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY. DRY AND COOLER HIGH PRESSURE
WILL FOLLOW THE FRONT ON FRIDAY...THEN PERSIST ON SATURDAY. OVERALL
TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND...WITH AFTERNOON
HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S AND LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z TODAY...
ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. SCATTERED
LIGHT RAINS MAY ACCENTUATE IFR CIGS AROUND KSAV SOMETIME TONIGHT
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF INCLUSIONS THIS FAR OUT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS COMING IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY ON THE 00Z RUN...WE INTRODUCED
VCSH AT KCHS BY THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON VCSH AT KSAV TO
PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAINS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN RETURN ON MONDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT COULD PRODUCE ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...FOLLOWED BY MORE CHANCES OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
ON TUESDAY AS THE FRONT RETURNS AS AS WARM FRONT. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND TODAY AND TONIGHT WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS. A GALE WARNING
IS IN EFFECT FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS TODAY INTO TONIGHT WHERE
PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL REMAIN ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS TODAY AND TONIGHT.

THE 00Z NAM CAME IN A BIT STRONGER WITH FORECAST WIND SPEEDS WHICH
IS A CONCERN THAT GALES MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NEAR SHORE MARINE
WATERS LATER TODAY AND ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THIS
EVENING. IT LOOKED BORDERLINE ENOUGH TO HOLD OFF ANY UPGRADES
TO GALE WARNINGS WITHIN 20 NM BUT WE HAVE TO WATCH TRENDS CLOSE
TODAY AS THERMAL/MOISTURE GRADIENTS ARE IN PLACE PERHAPS SUPPORTIVE
OF SMALLER SCALE ENHANCEMENTS TO NE FLOW. MODELS TYPICALLY DROP
WINDS A BIT FAST WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND WE
TRENDED IN THIS DIRECTION WITH THE LATEST FORECAST LATER TONIGHT.
SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6 TO 8 FT NEAR SHORE WATERS AND AT LEAST 9-11
FEET OVER GEORGIA WATERS.

SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL
TROUGH LIFTS NORTH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...WITH
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVEL CONDITIONS OVER ALL NEARSHORE WATERS
THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN FALL BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS IN NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS
WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL TROUGH
SHIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA. LINGERING 6-7 FT SEAS WILL LIKELY KEEP
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS IN A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TO AROUND MIDNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS
AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT STALLS OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE COASTAL
WATERS ON MONDAY...THEN LIFTS BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH...DEWPTS SHOULD RISE INTO THE UPPER 50S TO
AROUND 60...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN SOME SEA FOG OVER SOUTHERN WATERS.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SEA FOG COULD BE AN ISSUE AS DEEP
MOISTURE ADVECTS OVER COOLER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AHEAD OF
AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
INCREASE/BUILD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...LIKELY SUPPORTING THE NEED
FOR ADDITIONAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES THAT START WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO FRIDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS OVER THE WATERS AND IS
FOLLOWED BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
AMZ330.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
AMZ350-352-354.
 GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
    FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND
DEW POINT TRENDS JUST A BIT ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORIDA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z TODAY...ESPECIALLY
AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS
MAY ACCENTUATE IFR CIGS AROUND KSAV SOMETIME TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF INCLUSIONS THIS FAR OUT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS COMING IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY ON THE 00Z RUN...WE INTRODUCED
VCSH AT KCHS BY THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON VCSH AT KSAV TO
PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAINS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND
DEW POINT TRENDS JUST A BIT ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORIDA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z TODAY...ESPECIALLY
AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS
MAY ACCENTUATE IFR CIGS AROUND KSAV SOMETIME TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF INCLUSIONS THIS FAR OUT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS COMING IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY ON THE 00Z RUN...WE INTRODUCED
VCSH AT KCHS BY THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON VCSH AT KSAV TO
PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAINS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280617
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
117 AM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...TWEAKED SKY COVER AND
DEW POINT TRENDS JUST A BIT ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE...THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORIDA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...THE RISK FOR MVFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER 20Z TODAY...ESPECIALLY
AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT INTENSIFIES. SCATTERED LIGHT RAINS
MAY ACCENTUATE IFR CIGS AROUND KSAV SOMETIME TONIGHT BUT
CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR ANY TAF INCLUSIONS THIS FAR OUT.

GUSTY NE WINDS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV TODAY AND EVEN INTO
TONIGHT AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE. MODELS COMING IN FAIRLY
ROBUST FOR RAIN CHANCES LATER TODAY ON THE 00Z RUN...WE INTRODUCED
VCSH AT KCHS BY THIS EVENING AND AFTERNOON VCSH AT KSAV TO
PREVAILING LIGHT SHOWERS BY LATE DAY OR EARLY EVENING. RAINS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE HEAVY OR PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE
WATERS AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES PER CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORDIA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER
20Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
INTENSIFIES. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE WATERS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 280233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES PER CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORDIA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER
20Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
INTENSIFIES. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE WATERS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES PER CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORDIA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER
20Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
INTENSIFIES. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE WATERS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 280233
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
933 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
NUDGED OVERNIGHT LOWS UP ANOTHER 1-2 DEGREES PER CURRENT TRENDS.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORDIA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER
20Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
INTENSIFIES. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL STEADILY DETERIORATE ACROSS THE WATERS
AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ALL AREAS LATER TONIGHT WITH WINDS 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 4-6 FT NEARSHORE WATERS
AND 5-7 FT OFFSHORE WATERS. TRENDS ARE BEING WATCHED CAREFULLY FOR
TOMORROW AS THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST PINCHED
GRADIENT MAY OCCUR OVER THE SOUTH CAROLINA NEARSHORE WATERS WITH
GUSTS NEARING GALE FORCE. A GALE WARNING MAY BE NEEDED FOR THESE
ZONES LATER TONIGHT SHOULD THIS UPWARD TREND CONTINUE. WILL
INCLUDE A MENTION OF THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORDIA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER
20Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
INTENSIFIES. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT
WILL PRODUCE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GA WATERS WHERE A COASTAL
TROUGH IS SETTING UP. WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH THE GA NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH ADVISORIES FOR
THE SC WATERS STARTING AT VARIOUS INTERVALS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$





000
FXUS62 KCHS 272337
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
637 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A POWERFUL UPPER JET WILL REMAIN ANCHORED JUST TO THE WEST
OVERNIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS ACROSS THE REGION.
SATELLITE SHOWS THE CIRRUS CANOPY EXPANDING ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
FLORDIA...EASTERN GEORGIA...EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA INTO THE NORTH
CAROLINA CRYSTAL COAST AS THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER
JET STRENGTHENS SLIGHTLY. SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THICK CIRRUS
WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT...WHICH CORRESPONDS
WELL WITH THE LATEST SET OF HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. OVERNIGHT
LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL GIVEN THICK CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO HOLD
FIRM...SO WILL NUDGE LOWS UP 1-3 DEGREES FOR MOST LOCATIONS. THESE
UPDATED VALUES MAY STILL PROVE TO BE TOO COOL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. FURTHER ADJUSTMENTS MAY BE
NEEDED WITH THE LATE EVENING UPDATE. GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN INLAND HIGH PRESSURE AND A
DEVELOPING COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE TIGHTENS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR...ALTHOUGH THE RISK FOR MVFR AND IFR CIGS WILL INCREASE AFTER
20Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV AS ISENTROPIC ASSENT
INTENSIFIES. GUSTY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCHS/KSAV LATER THIS
EVENING AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN INLAND HIGH
PRESSURE AND A COASTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT
WILL PRODUCE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST.
THE TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GA WATERS WHERE A COASTAL
TROUGH IS SETTING UP. WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH THE GA NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH ADVISORIES FOR
THE SC WATERS STARTING AT VARIOUS INTERVALS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST.
A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES...LEADING TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE
WATERS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING
BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL
TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL
REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME
TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL NEAR SHORE WATERS BY
SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER THE OUTER GEORGIA
WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND THE COASTAL
TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD RETURN LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ350-352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A 150 KT JET STREAK OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST. MEANWHILE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO WEDGE
IN FROM THE NORTH AND 850-700 MB LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL BRING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN SC LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OUTER PORTIONS LATE.
INLAND SC SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS...ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. ELSEWHERE...WITH EITHER SOME WIND AND/OR INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 18Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...THEN VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GA WATERS WHERE A COASTAL
TROUGH IS SETTING UP. WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH THE GA NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH ADVISORIES FOR
THE SC WATERS STARTING AT VARIOUS INTERVALS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS
HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 272129
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
429 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE IN AND STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY...THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT
WILL SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED
BY COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A 150 KT JET STREAK OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
THIS WILL PERSIST UNTIL LATE TONIGHT BEFORE SHIFTING OFF TO THE
EAST. MEANWHILE...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO WEDGE
IN FROM THE NORTH AND 850-700 MB LAYER FLOW STRENGTHENING FROM THE
SOUTHEAST...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FLUX WILL BRING BROKEN TO OVERCAST
STRATOCUMULUS INTO SOUTHEAST GA AND EVENTUALLY SOUTHERN SC LATE
TONIGHT. A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER OUTER PORTIONS LATE.
INLAND SC SHOULD SEE PARTIAL CLEARING LATE TONIGHT AND DIMINISHING
WINDS...ALLOWING FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWS IN THE
LOWER 30S. ELSEWHERE...WITH EITHER SOME WIND AND/OR INCREASING LOW
LEVEL CLOUDINESS...LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT... SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WILL WEDGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS...WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. INCREASING LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT SKIES
BECOMING CLOUDY ACROSS THE AREA. SHOWERS WILL INITIALLY BE LIMITED
TO THE COASTAL WATERS IN THE MORNING IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...BUT
STRENGTHENING ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL RESULT IN SOME RAIN DEVELOPING
OVER SOUTHEAST GEORGIA IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL THEN INCREASE IN
COVERAGE THROUGH THE NIGHT...WITH PROBABILITIES OF 30-50
PERCENT...HIGHEST ALONG THE COAST NEAR THE TROUGH AND TOWARD THE
MIDLANDS WHERE ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL BE MAXIMIZED. LOW LEVEL
NORTHEAST FLOW WITHIN THE SURFACE WEDGE AND EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER
WILL LIMIT HIGHS TO THE UPPER 40S TO AROUND 50 ACROSS THE AREA. LOWS
SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF
THE AREA.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...THE PARENT HIGH WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH SOME INDICATION THAT THE
WEDGE MAY BEGIN TO ERODE LATE IN THE DAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. DEEP
MOISTURE AND CONTINUED ISENTROPIC ASCENT WILL SUPPORT A 20-40
PERCENT CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH RAIN CHANCES TAPERING
OFF AT NIGHT AS THE COASTAL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTH AND THE WEDGE
ERODES. THE TIMING OF THE WEDGE EROSION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
TEMPERATURES...AS THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN FORECAST
HIGHS WITH THE VARIOUS NUMERICAL GUIDANCE. PLAN TO TAKE A BLEND OF
MODELS...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S NORTHWEST TO THE UPPER 50S NEAR
THE GA COAST...BUT TEMPERATURES COULD BE 5-10 DEGREES WARMER/COOLER
DEPENDING ON HOW WELL ENTRENCHED THE WEDGE IS. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT
SHOULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 40S AND LOWER 50S.

MONDAY...A BRIEF TRANSITION PERIOD IS EXPECTED AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE
PASSES OVER THE REGION...FOLLOWED BY THE APPROACH AND EVENTUAL
PROGRESSION OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY.
THERE COULD BE SOME SHOWERS AROUND DURING THE DAY...BUT CERTAINLY
NOT A WASH OUT. TEMPERATURES COULD WARM INTO THE MID AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA FOR HIGHS BEFORE THE BACKDOOR FRONT MOVES IN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 18Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...THEN VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE AREA. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AT EITHER TERMINAL
WITH THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WEDGING DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT WILL
PRODUCE A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST. THE
TIGHTEST GRADIENT WILL BE ACROSS THE GA WATERS WHERE A COASTAL
TROUGH IS SETTING UP. WE HAVE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR
BOTH THE GA NEARSHORE AND OFFSHORE WATERS...WITH ADVISORIES FOR
THE SC WATERS STARTING AT VARIOUS INTERVALS LATER TONIGHT AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS
ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES
WILL BE ONGOING FOR ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER THE WATERS SATURDAY
NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS
HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
NEAR SHORE WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING...THEN BY MONDAY MORNING OVER
THE OUTER GEORGIA WATERS AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR
     AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM TO 11 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 18Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...THEN VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 18Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...THEN VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271839
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
139 PM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 18Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS. MAINLY MID AND HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY
SAT MORNING...THEN VFR STRATOCU MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHEAST AROUND
DAYBREAK.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...DPB/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271603
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271603
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271603
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/JRL





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271603
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1103 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION
BY EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS.

THE BACK EDGE OF THE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS OUR
WESTERN ZONES...SOMEWHAT LIMITING INSOLATION TODAY. WE CAPPED
HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE
OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER
TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB/JRL




000
FXUS62 KCHS 271159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION BY
EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS. MODELS PROG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD TO WORK INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF STRATOCU LINGERING INLAND
TODAY. WE COULD NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS SOME THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INSISTED AT 00Z. WE CAPPED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM
COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 271159
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
659 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRES BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION BY
EARLY ON SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER
THE KEYS AND BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT
REVOLVE AROUND CLOUDS AND TEMPS. MODELS PROG THE BACK EDGE OF THE
THICK HIGH CLOUD SHIELD TO WORK INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY TO
MID AFTERNOON WITH GREATER COVERAGE OF STRATOCU LINGERING INLAND
TODAY. WE COULD NOT GO QUITE AS WARM AS SOME THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE INSISTED AT 00Z. WE CAPPED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S
AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI- COUNTY AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM
COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS SHOULD BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES
WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE
COLD FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 12Z SAT. SURFACE WINDS FROM THE NE
THROUGH TONIGHT...AN UPTICK IN SPEEDS LIKELY LATE TONIGHT AS THE
PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NNE FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON
HARBOR AND WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES
GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING TO 4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8
FT OFF THE GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270945
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WE HAVE SEEN STRATOCU DECREASE ALONG THE COASTAL HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR BEST PORTRAYED
BY 00Z NAM 925 MB DEW POINT PROGS. DRIER LOW LEVELS INFILTRATED
THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW A STRONG INVERSION ATOP 4 KFT. STRATCU
STILL LINGERING FAR INLAND ZONES AND THE INITIALIZATION OF THE
CANADIAN SKY COVER PROG APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WELL. UPSTAIRS...A CANOPY OF CIRROSTRATUS BLANKETS
THE AREA UNDER THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 150 KT 250
MB JET ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS
MANY AREAS WERE HELD UP BY THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BUT ALL
LOCALES EXCEPT THE BEACHES SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S COME
DAWN.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION BY EARLY ON
SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE KEYS AND
BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND
CLOUDS AND TEMPS. MODELS PROG THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD TO WORK INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OF STRATOCU LINGERING INLAND TODAY. WE COULD NOT
GO QUITE AS WARM AS SOME THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INSISTED AT 00Z.
WE CAPPED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS
SHOULD BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER
CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE COLD
FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z SAT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND
WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO
4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270945
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
445 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT AND
WEDGE SOUTHWARD OVER GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA OVER THE WEEKEND
WHILE A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. A COLD
FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION LATE MONDAY...
THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL
SHIFT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY... FOLLOWED BY
COOLER HIGH PRESSURE NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...WE HAVE SEEN STRATOCU DECREASE ALONG THE COASTAL HALF OF
THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT AS A PUNCH OF DRIER AIR BEST PORTRAYED
BY 00Z NAM 925 MB DEW POINT PROGS. DRIER LOW LEVELS INFILTRATED
THE SATURATED LAYER BELOW A STRONG INVERSION ATOP 4 KFT. STRATCU
STILL LINGERING FAR INLAND ZONES AND THE INITIALIZATION OF THE
CANADIAN SKY COVER PROG APPEARS TO BE HANDLING THE CLOUDS IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WELL. UPSTAIRS...A CANOPY OF CIRROSTRATUS BLANKETS
THE AREA UNDER THE FAVORABLE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF 150 KT 250
MB JET ACROSS UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA. TEMPS
MANY AREAS WERE HELD UP BY THE CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT BUT ALL
LOCALES EXCEPT THE BEACHES SHOULD BE SOMEWHERE IN THE 30S COME
DAWN.

DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS EXPANSIVE HIGH PRES
BUILDS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MID ATLC REGION BY EARLY ON
SATURDAY. THE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WITH THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE KEYS AND
BAHAMAS. OUR MAIN FORECAST ISSUES THROUGH TONIGHT REVOLVE AROUND
CLOUDS AND TEMPS. MODELS PROG THE BACK EDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD
SHIELD TO WORK INTO THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WITH
GREATER COVERAGE OF STRATOCU LINGERING INLAND TODAY. WE COULD NOT
GO QUITE AS WARM AS SOME THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INSISTED AT 00Z.
WE CAPPED HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 50S AROUND THE CHARLESTON TRI-
COUNTY AND MID 50S IN THE CHATHAM COUNTY AREA. WARMEST READINGS
SHOULD BE OVER INLAND GEORGIA ZONES WITH POTENTIAL FOR THINNER
CLOUDS LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT...HIGH PRES BUILDING TO THE NORTH WILL BEGIN TO PACK THE
GRADIENT OVER THE REGION AND IT WILL BECOME BREEZY ALONG THE
BEACHES AND BARRIER ISLANDS OVERNIGHT. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY AND LOW TEMPS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S NORTH OF I-16
AND INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA WITH MID TO A FEW UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE ALTAMAHA REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY....THE AREA WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY UNDER A
WEST/SOUTHWEST ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT SLOWLY BUILDS NORTH INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. AT THE SFC...A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST SATURDAY WHILE A STRONG WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
PERSISTS INLAND THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. THE PATTERN WILL FAVOR
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WEDGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS THAT
SHIFT ONSHORE EACH DAY AS THE COASTAL TROUGH STRENGTHENS AND DRIFTS
CLOSER TO THE COAST. OVERALL HIGH TEMPS WILL REMAIN COOLER ON
SATURDAY...PRIMARILY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT NORTHEAST SFC
WIND. IN GENERAL...AFTERNOON HIGHS WILL REACH THE UPPER 40S
NORTH...TO LOWER 50S SOUTH. DESPITE GRADUAL RIDGING ALOFT...TEMPS
WILL STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE PERSISTENT
WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST. THEREFORE HAVE LIMITED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON HIGHS TO THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST AREAS...ALTHOUGH
WE COULD SEE MID/UPPER 50S FOR AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

MONDAY...THE WEDGE OF SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A LARGE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS OVER THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WITH A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE AREA BY THE EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL
BE NOTICEABLY WARMER...WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 60S NORTH...TO
LOWER 70S SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 16 IN SOUTHEAST GEORGIA. CHANCES OF
SHOWERS SHOULD ALSO BREAKOUT OVER THE COURSE OF THE DAY AS MOISTURE
DEEPENS HEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR NEAR THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT...SUPPORTING CHANCES OF SHOWERS OVER THE AREA. THE STALLED
FRONT WILL THEN LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON TUESDAY...BRINGING
WARMER CONDITIONS. IN GENERAL...EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S/LOWER 70S ON TUESDAY. EVEN WARMER CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AS A SOUTHERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING OCCURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. STRONG FORCING WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT...SUPPORTING THE NEED FOR INCREASING SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
SHOWERS AND/OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT OFFSHORE WITH THE COLD
FRONT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON...FOLLOWED BY DRY AND COOLER HIGH
PRESSURE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z SAT.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY AS A WEDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE
AREA. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN FOR PART OF MONDAY...BEFORE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BECOME POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
AT EITHER TERMINAL.

&&

.MARINE...
NORTH FLOW OVER THE WATERS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY VEER NE LATER
TODAY AND INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT AS STRONG HIGH PRES BUILDS
TO THE NORTH WITH THE ONSET OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE WEDGE PATTERN.
WE HAVE RAISED FLAGS THIS MORNING INITIALIZING ADVISORIES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE GEORGIA WATERS AND THIS EVENING ON NEAR
SHORE SOUTH CAROLINA WATERS. STRONG PINCHING SHOULD PRODUCE FREQUENT
GUSTS TO 25 KT LATER TONIGHT IN PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND
WE STARTED UP AN ADVISORY THERE OVERNIGHT AS THE PRES GRADIENT
STRENGTHENS. SEAS WILL BUILD FROM 2 TO 4 FT EARLY THIS MORNING TO
4 TO 6 FT TONIGHT WITH HIGHER SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 8 FT OFF THE
GEORGIA COAST FROM GRAYS REEF SEAWARD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEDGE INLAND ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WHILE A
COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS OFF THE GEORGIA COAST. A STRONG PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES...LEADING
TO DETERIORATING CONDITIONS OVER ALL MARINE WATERS SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS ON
SATURDAY WHERE PINCHING BECOMES GREATEST ALONG THE NORTHERN EDGE OF
THE COASTAL TROUGH...AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL BE ONGOING FOR
ALL REMAINING WATERS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL
BEGIN TO IMPROVE OVER ALL WATERS SATURDAY NIGHT...PROMPTING AN END
TO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN THE CHS HARBOR...BUT WILL TAKE TIME TO
IMPROVE IN ALL REMAINING WATERS.

WINDS/SEAS SHOULD FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OVER ALL
WATERS BY SUNDAY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OVER THE WATERS AND
THE COASTAL TROUGH WEAKENS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
RETURN LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH
THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SATURDAY FOR AMZ330.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY
     FOR AMZ350-352.
     GALE WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT
     FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST
     SATURDAY FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST
     SUNDAY FOR AMZ354.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM...DPB
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY MIXING OUT PER AREA
OBSERVATIONS...BUT A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL UPPER JET IS STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THE CIRRUS BAND WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
THE NIGHT YIELDING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT THICKENS. ONLY
MINOR DEW POINT TWEAKS WERE PERFORMED ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE
WITH THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH ONLY VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THE NEW FEW HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...




000
FXUS62 KCHS 270553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1253 AM EST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY MIXING OUT PER AREA
OBSERVATIONS...BUT A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL UPPER JET IS STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THE CIRRUS BAND WILL REMAIN INTACT THROUGH
THE NIGHT YIELDING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT THICKENS. ONLY
MINOR DEW POINT TWEAKS WERE PERFORMED ON THE MIDNIGHT UPDATE
WITH THE FORECAST ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR AT BOTH KSAV/KCHS THROUGH 06Z SAT WITH ONLY VERY SMALL
CHANCES OF MVFR CIGS AT THE TERMINALS THE NEW FEW HOURS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT OFFSHORE AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHTS WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY MIXING OUT PER AREA
OBSERVATIONS...BUT A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL UPPER JET IS STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THE CIRRUS BAND WILL REMAIN IN TACT
THROUGH THE NIGHT YIELDING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT THICKENS.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEING HELD UP DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH NECESSITATES ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. THE RISK FOR FOG IS ESSENTIALLY NON-
EXISTENT THIS FAR SOUTH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN
PLACE...DESPITE WET GROUNDS.

FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO THE CLOUDY CATEGORY ALL AREAS.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
* NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES UP 1-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS.
* REMOVED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 02-05Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 270217
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
917 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT. LOW CLOUDS ARE STEADILY MIXING OUT PER AREA
OBSERVATIONS...BUT A THICK CIRRUS CANOPY ASSOCIATED WITH A
POWERFUL UPPER JET IS STEADILY EXPANDING ACROSS THE EASTERN
CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA. THE CIRRUS BAND WILL REMAIN IN TACT
THROUGH THE NIGHT YIELDING MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS IT THICKENS.
TEMPERATURES ARE BEING HELD UP DUE THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD
COVER...WHICH NECESSITATES ANOTHER SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE LOW
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY MORNING. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE
LOWER 30S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST. THE RISK FOR FOG IS ESSENTIALLY NON-
EXISTENT THIS FAR SOUTH WITH EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER REMAINING IN
PLACE...DESPITE WET GROUNDS.

FOR THE LATE EVENING UPDATE...
* ADJUSTED CLOUD COVER TO THE CLOUDY CATEGORY ALL AREAS.
* ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT WARMER OVERNIGHT LOWS.
* NUDGED LOW TEMPERATURES UP 1-3 DEGREES MOST AREAS.
* REMOVED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG/FREEZING FOG.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 02-05Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. LINGERING POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS EVENING...BUT A BAND OF JET ENHANCED CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A FAST 150 JET STREAK BECOMES
ORIENTED ACROSS THE AREA. EVENING SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST
THE CIRRUS DECK IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THINNING OF THE CIRRUS DECK ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH.

THERMAL FALLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE AND INCOMING GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. WILL NUDGE
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING UP 1-2 DEGREES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLLETON-DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 02-05Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. LINGERING POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS EVENING...BUT A BAND OF JET ENHANCED CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A FAST 150 JET STREAK BECOMES
ORIENTED ACROSS THE AREA. EVENING SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST
THE CIRRUS DECK IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THINNING OF THE CIRRUS DECK ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH.

THERMAL FALLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE AND INCOMING GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. WILL NUDGE
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING UP 1-2 DEGREES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLLETON-DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 02-05Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. LINGERING POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS EVENING...BUT A BAND OF JET ENHANCED CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A FAST 150 JET STREAK BECOMES
ORIENTED ACROSS THE AREA. EVENING SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST
THE CIRRUS DECK IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THINNING OF THE CIRRUS DECK ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH.

THERMAL FALLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE AND INCOMING GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. WILL NUDGE
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING UP 1-2 DEGREES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLLETON-DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 02-05Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 262306
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
606 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL EXTEND ACROSS
THE REGION TONIGHT. LINGERING POST FRONTAL LOW CLOUDS WILL
GRADUALLY MIX OUT THIS EVENING...BUT A BAND OF JET ENHANCED CIRRUS
IS EXPECTED TO THICKEN OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS AS THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A FAST 150 JET STREAK BECOMES
ORIENTED ACROSS THE AREA. EVENING SATELLITE TRENDS ALREADY SUGGEST
THE CIRRUS DECK IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED. MOSTLY CLOUDY TO
CLOUDY SKIES TO PREVAIL FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT AS A RESULT. THERE
MAY BE JUST ENOUGH THINNING OF THE CIRRUS DECK ACROSS THE FAR
WESTERN ZONES TO ALLOW FOR SOME SHALLOW GROUND FOG/FREEZING FOG TO
DEVELOP LATE...BUT THIS SHOULD NOT AMOUNT TO TOO MUCH.

THERMAL FALLS WILL BE TEMPERED BY THE EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER IN
PLACE AND INCOMING GUIDANCE IS TRENDING SLIGHTLY WARMER
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS. WILL NUDGE
LOWS FRIDAY MORNING UP 1-2 DEGREES. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF COLLETON-DORCHESTER
AND BERKELEY COUNTIES WITH MID-UPPER 30S ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT LOWER
40S ALONG THE GEORGIA COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY 02-05Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
PREVAILING THEREAFTER.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR SATURDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST





000
FXUS62 KCHS 262048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
348 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH/JET
SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH SOME COLDER TEMPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WE THINK TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SC WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 ALONG THE GA COAST. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG EITHER
DEVELOPING AND/OR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS PER THE
SREF/RAP/NAM12. IN ADDITION...IF TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING AND
FOG DOES OCCUR THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING FOG BUT THE
PATCHY/LIGHT NATURE OF THE FOG SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...LIKELY BY AROUND 04Z...BUT COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB




000
FXUS62 KCHS 262048
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
348 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH SATURDAY. A
COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER TROUGH/JET
SHIFT NORTHEAST OF THE AREA. THIS WILL PUSH SOME COLDER TEMPS
SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PERSISTENT LOW AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUDS WILL INHIBIT RADIATIONAL COOLING. THUS...TEMPS WILL BE A
BIT TRICKY BUT FOR NOW WE THINK TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR FREEZING
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST SC WITH MID TO UPPER 30S
ELSEWHERE...EXCEPT CLOSER TO 40 ALONG THE GA COAST. DEPENDING ON
THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT FOG EITHER
DEVELOPING AND/OR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTH AS PER THE
SREF/RAP/NAM12. IN ADDITION...IF TEMPERATURES REACH FREEZING AND
FOG DOES OCCUR THERE COULD BE SOME FREEZING FOG BUT THE
PATCHY/LIGHT NATURE OF THE FOG SHOULD PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT
IMPACTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A BROAD WSW 500 MB FLOW WILL PREVAIL FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
MEANWHILE EXPANSIVE CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTHWEST WILL
GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BY SUNDAY.

PARTIAL CLEARING ON FRIDAY ALONG WITH SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PUSH
TEMPS INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. BY FRIDAY NIGHT A WEAK COASTAL
TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OFF THE GA COAST. LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY
WITH MOISTURE INCREASING ABOVE THE SURFACE HIGH...BRINGING LOW AND
MID CLOUDS BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

A PRONOUNCED HIGH PRESSURE WEDGE PATTERN WILL EXIST ON SATURDAY WITH
COOL NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND EXTENSIVE CLOUDS STREAMING
IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. A FAIRLY DRY LAYER WILL BE IN PLACE OVER LAND
AREAS BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AND FORCING FOR SOME
SHOWERS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HIGHS ON SATURDAY WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH SHIFTS INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC THE COASTAL TROUGH WILL SHIFT INLAND. THIS COULD
BRING SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS TO INLAND AREAS...MAINLY SOUTHEAST GA
WHERE DEEPER MOISTURE EXISTS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY SHOULD REBOUND INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...LIKELY BY AROUND 04Z...BUT COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS INCREASINGLY LIKELY BEGINNING LATER SATURDAY OR
SATURDAY NIGHT...MAINLY IN LOW CEILINGS BUT FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. MAINLY VFR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...NORTH WINDS INCREASING UP TO NEAR 15 KT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS
WILL DIMINISH SLOWLY TO NO HIGHER THAN 4 FT LATE TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY...STRENGTHENING TO THE
NORTH ON SATURDAY AS A COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS. A PINCHED NORTHEAST
GRADIENT WILL THUS SETUP OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
PERSIST INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE WEAKENING AS THE HIGH SHIFTS
EAST. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GALES ON SATURDAY OVER
OUTER PORTIONS. AT THIS POINT WE SHOW A FEW 34 KT GUSTS ACROSS THE
OFFSHORE GA WATERS ON SATURDAY...SO LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO
CONSIDER A GALE WATCH.

AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVER THE ATLANTIC ON SUNDAY...WINDS/SEAS WILL
DECREASE CONSIDERABLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...JRL/RJB
MARINE...JRL/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261833
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
133 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS DEFINITELY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN WITH ONLY LOWER TO MID 40S NOTED THUS FAR WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY GEORGIA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A BIT MORE WARMING
ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY
AREAS UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TONIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...LIKELY BY AROUND 04Z...BUT COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEYOND 20 NM.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261833
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
133 PM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER IS DEFINITELY KEEPING TEMPERATURES
DOWN WITH ONLY LOWER TO MID 40S NOTED THUS FAR WITH SOME UPPER 40S
OVER MCINTOSH COUNTY GEORGIA. CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES SHOULD
PREVAIL THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH ONLY A BIT MORE WARMING
ANTICIPATED.

TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY
AREAS UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TONIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR CIGS WILL EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO VFR CIGS LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT...LIKELY BY AROUND 04Z...BUT COULD LINGER THROUGH ABOUT
12Z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT BEYOND 20 NM.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261530
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET. LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO RULE. THUS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 50S
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-16.

TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY
AREAS UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TONIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT COULD BE SLOWER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND MAY NOT EVEN BECOME VFR AT ALL.
ELEVATED/GUSTY NW WINDS AT KCHS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
THROUGH MID MORNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WE TOOK DOWN THE ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT OFF CHARLESTON
COUNTY AND THE OUTER GA ZONE WHICH WILL HOLD ONTO THE WORST
CONDITIONS LONGEST.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261530
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1030 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TODAY...HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD IN BEHIND DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.
CLEARING WILL BE LIMITED HOWEVER GIVEN THE ABUNDANT LINGERING LOW
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT AHEAD OF ANOTHER APPROACHING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER JET. LOOKS LIKE LOW CLOUDS WILL BE SLOW
TO ERODE SO EXPECT CLOUDY SKIES TO RULE. THUS...TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO THE MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH AND WEST AND LOWER 50S
GENERALLY SOUTH OF I-16.

TONIGHT...LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY
AREAS UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR
ADVECTION LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S
TONIGHT DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS SHOULD IMPROVE SOMEWHAT TODAY BUT COULD BE SLOWER THAN
WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST AND MAY NOT EVEN BECOME VFR AT ALL.
ELEVATED/GUSTY NW WINDS AT KCHS IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW
THROUGH MID MORNING TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...LOW PRES WILL MOVE FARTHER AWAY WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS.
WE TOOK DOWN THE ADVISORY FOR ALL WATERS EXCEPT OFF CHARLESTON
COUNTY AND THE OUTER GA ZONE WHICH WILL HOLD ONTO THE WORST
CONDITIONS LONGEST.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261211
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 995 MB OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST.
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS ENDING AS MOISTURE BELOW
5 KFT THINS WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW. ADJUSTED A FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS AT DAYBREAK...MOSTLY
WINDS AND TEMP TWEAKS.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST THIS MORNING. A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY
PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP INITIALLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE LAYER OF
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL WEAK
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN SE GEORGIA
ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS HAVE
ENDED AND VSBYS GOOD. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO MID AFTERNOON BUT LOWER CIGS COULD SCATTER OUT IN
SOME AREAS LATER TODAY BUT A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGEST OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE LINGER INTO THE EVENING. VFR IS MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THAT IS THE ROAD WE TOOK ON THE 12Z TAFS.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AT KCHS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW PRES IS NOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND PULLING
AWAY. NASTY CONDITIONS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AT 630 AM
WITH 30 KT OF WIND AND SEAS AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FT. GALES OVER THE
WARMER ATLC WATERS FROM BUOY 41004 NORTHEASTWARD. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE. AT 7 AM...WE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE GEORGIA LEG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...EXPECT ADVISORIES TO
RUN A WHILE LONGER TODAY.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261211
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 995 MB OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST.
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS ENDING AS MOISTURE BELOW
5 KFT THINS WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW. ADJUSTED A FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS AT DAYBREAK...MOSTLY
WINDS AND TEMP TWEAKS.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST THIS MORNING. A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY
PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP INITIALLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE LAYER OF
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL WEAK
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN SE GEORGIA
ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS HAVE
ENDED AND VSBYS GOOD. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO MID AFTERNOON BUT LOWER CIGS COULD SCATTER OUT IN
SOME AREAS LATER TODAY BUT A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGEST OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE LINGER INTO THE EVENING. VFR IS MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THAT IS THE ROAD WE TOOK ON THE 12Z TAFS.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AT KCHS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW PRES IS NOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND PULLING
AWAY. NASTY CONDITIONS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AT 630 AM
WITH 30 KT OF WIND AND SEAS AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FT. GALES OVER THE
WARMER ATLC WATERS FROM BUOY 41004 NORTHEASTWARD. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE. AT 7 AM...WE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE GEORGIA LEG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...EXPECT ADVISORIES TO
RUN A WHILE LONGER TODAY.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 261211
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 995 MB OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST.
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS ENDING AS MOISTURE BELOW
5 KFT THINS WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW. ADJUSTED A FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS AT DAYBREAK...MOSTLY
WINDS AND TEMP TWEAKS.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST THIS MORNING. A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY
PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP INITIALLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE LAYER OF
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL WEAK
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN SE GEORGIA
ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS HAVE
ENDED AND VSBYS GOOD. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO MID AFTERNOON BUT LOWER CIGS COULD SCATTER OUT IN
SOME AREAS LATER TODAY BUT A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGEST OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE LINGER INTO THE EVENING. VFR IS MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THAT IS THE ROAD WE TOOK ON THE 12Z TAFS.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AT KCHS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW PRES IS NOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND PULLING
AWAY. NASTY CONDITIONS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AT 630 AM
WITH 30 KT OF WIND AND SEAS AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FT. GALES OVER THE
WARMER ATLC WATERS FROM BUOY 41004 NORTHEASTWARD. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE. AT 7 AM...WE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE GEORGIA LEG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...EXPECT ADVISORIES TO
RUN A WHILE LONGER TODAY.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 261211
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
711 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEAR-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 995 MB OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST AT 12Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST.
PATCHY DRIZZLE ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS ENDING AS MOISTURE BELOW
5 KFT THINS WITH SOME WEAK DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT IN THE WAKE OF
THE LOW. ADJUSTED A FEW FORECAST ELEMENTS AT DAYBREAK...MOSTLY
WINDS AND TEMP TWEAKS.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST THIS MORNING. A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY
PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL AREAS BEFORE
DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP INITIALLY
SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE LAYER OF
CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL WEAK
DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND EVENTUALLY
STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE FACTORS AND
GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT GOING ANYWHERE
FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S IN SE GEORGIA
ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CIGS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS HAVE
ENDED AND VSBYS GOOD. CIGS SHOULD GRADUALLY LIFT TO LOW END MVFR
LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. MVFR CONDITIONS MAY
LINGER INTO MID AFTERNOON BUT LOWER CIGS COULD SCATTER OUT IN
SOME AREAS LATER TODAY BUT A FEW MODELS STILL SUGGEST OCCASIONAL
BROKEN CIGS IN THE MVFR RANGE LINGER INTO THE EVENING. VFR IS MORE
LIKELY TONIGHT AND THAT IS THE ROAD WE TOOK ON THE 12Z TAFS.
BRIEFLY GUSTY WINDS AT KCHS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW THROUGH MID
MORNING...WIND SPEEDS DECREASING DURING THE DAY AS HIGH PRES
BUILDS IN.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LOW PRES IS NOW OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND PULLING
AWAY. NASTY CONDITIONS OFF THE CHARLESTON COUNTY COAST AT 630 AM
WITH 30 KT OF WIND AND SEAS AT LEAST 6 TO 8 FT. GALES OVER THE
WARMER ATLC WATERS FROM BUOY 41004 NORTHEASTWARD. CONDITIONS
SHOULD STEADILY IMPROVE THIS MORNING BUT SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED
OFFSHORE FOR A WHILE. AT 7 AM...WE LOWERED THE GALE WARNING
OFFSHORE GEORGIA LEG AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES CONTINUE INTO MID
MORNING ALL WATERS INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. CHARLESTON
COUNTY WATERS AND OFFSHORE GEORGIA WATERS...EXPECT ADVISORIES TO
RUN A WHILE LONGER TODAY.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ350.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260908
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 998 MB EAST OF CHARLESTON
AT 09Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT WHICH TRANSLATED TOWARD SHORE AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLIER ON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. RAINS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED FOR THE FORECAST AREA AT 4 AM
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ALONG
THE COAST PRIOR TO DAWN. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL
AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP
INITIALLY SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE
LAYER OF CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL
WEAK DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND
EVENTUALLY STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE
FACTORS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT
GOING ANYWHERE FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
IN SE GEORGIA ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS
HAVE ENDED AND THE RISK OF LLWS SHOULD ALSO WANE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR BY EITHER LATE DAY OR SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS AT 08Z WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
10Z AND WE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED AROUND 6 AM
AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW DEPARTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE BACK-SIDE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. IN AMZ350...AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT
FOR SEAS.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




000
FXUS62 KCHS 260908
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 998 MB EAST OF CHARLESTON
AT 09Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT WHICH TRANSLATED TOWARD SHORE AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLIER ON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. RAINS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED FOR THE FORECAST AREA AT 4 AM
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ALONG
THE COAST PRIOR TO DAWN. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL
AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP
INITIALLY SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE
LAYER OF CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL
WEAK DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND
EVENTUALLY STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE
FACTORS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT
GOING ANYWHERE FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
IN SE GEORGIA ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS
HAVE ENDED AND THE RISK OF LLWS SHOULD ALSO WANE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR BY EITHER LATE DAY OR SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS AT 08Z WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
10Z AND WE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED AROUND 6 AM
AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW DEPARTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE BACK-SIDE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. IN AMZ350...AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT
FOR SEAS.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH





000
FXUS62 KCHS 260908
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
408 AM EST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL AWAY FROM THE AREA THIS MORNING THEN HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE NORTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL
SLIDE OFFSHORE SUNDAY AND A COASTAL TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH
THE REGION. A COLD FRONT WILL STALL OVER OR JUST NORTH OF THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN WILL LIFT NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRES AT 998 MB EAST OF CHARLESTON
AT 09Z THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST ALONG A COASTAL
FRONT WHICH TRANSLATED TOWARD SHORE AS A WARM FRONT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS EARLIER ON. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LOW...THE
FRONT WILL QUICKLY SHIFT EASTWARD OVER THE GULF STREAM PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK. RAINS HAVE ALL BUT ENDED FOR THE FORECAST AREA AT 4 AM
BUT THERE STILL COULD BE SOME PATCHY LIGHT RAIN OR SPRINKLES ALONG
THE COAST PRIOR TO DAWN. MANY AREAS SHOULD SEE A BRIEF SURGE OF
SURFACE WIND GUSTS AS THE LOW DEPARTS AND CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO
PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.

RAINS WERE STEADY AND SIGNIFICANT OVERNIGHT WITH STORM TOTAL
REPORTS EXCEEDING 2.5 INCHES IN SOME AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WHILE MANY AREAS SOME AT LEAST SOME PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS...
MINOR ROAD FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON OVERNIGHT
AS RAIN COINCIDED WITH GUSTY ONSHORE FLOW AND A HIGH TIDE THAT
RAN 1.5 FT MLLW ABOVE PREDICTED. STANDING WATERS SHOULD RECEDE
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS AS WINDS WERE NOW NW AND THE TIDES IS
GOING OUT.

THE MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT RAPIDLY OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WHILE THE SURFACE LOW PULLS RAPIDLY
AWAY FROM THE MID ATLC COAST BY LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
A SHARP MID LEVEL DRY PUNCH WILL ENSURE POPS WILL HAVE CUT-OFF ALL
AREAS BEFORE DAYBREAK. A STRENGTHENING SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ATOP
INITIALLY SATURATED LOWER LAYERS AND THE PRESENCE OF AN OPAQUE
LAYER OF CIRROSTRATUS CLOUDS ALOFT WILL WORK AGAINST SOME INITIAL
WEAK DOWNSLOPE EFFECTS IN THE WAKE OF THE LOW. STRATUS AND
EVENTUALLY STRATOCU SHOULD BE SLOW TO ERODE TODAY GIVEN THESE
FACTORS AND GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO RULE. TEMPS NOT
GOING ANYWHERE FAST TODAY...MID TO UPPER 40S NORTH TO LOWER 50S
IN SE GEORGIA ALONG S OF I-16.

LOWER CLOUDS COULD EVEN PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT IN MANY AREAS
UNDER THE STRONG INVERSION. VERY WEAK LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION
LATE SHOULD DRIVE TEMPS DOWN INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S TONIGHT
DESPITE THE CLOUDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...BROAD WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL COVER THE
REGION ALOFT WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND
BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. DRY AIR THROUGH MOST OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST AREA RAIN FREE THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT AS THE HIGH RIDGES DOWN THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT
WILL BE YET ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGHS ONLY REACHING THE LOW 50S
NORTH...MID 50S SOUTH. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL FALL INTO THE LOW 30S
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST...WITH MID TO UPPER 30S CLOSER TO THE
BEACHES.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...ZONAL FLOW WILL DEFINE THE REGIME ALOFT
WHILE A STRONG 1045 MB HIGH SETTLES OVER THE MID ATLANTIC AND SETS
UP A WELL DEFINED COLD AIR DAMMING WEDGE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AT
THE SURFACE. A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ACROSS
THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. BY AND LARGE THE FORECAST LOOKS
DRY...THOUGH THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
COASTAL TROUGH WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AS THE
TROUGH WOBBLES CLOSER TO THE COAST. POPS HAVE BEEN LIMITED THANKS TO
THE SUBTLE NATURE OF THE COASTAL TROUGH AND THE LACK OF ANY LARGE
SCALE FORCING. SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE STRING OF COOL DAYS WITH
HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S IN THE COOL NORTHEAST
FLOW. BY SUNDAY...THE MODELS SHOW THE TROUGH MAKING VARYING DEGREES
OF INLAND PROGRESS WITH A WARM UP IN ITS WAKE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED FOR
THE MID TO UPPER 50S...BUT THIS IS A BIT UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ON
THE CLEARANCE OF THE TROUGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE LONG TERM FORECAST PERIOD CONTINUES TO FEATURE A PATTERN SHIFT
THANKS TO A STRENGTHENING ANTICYCLONE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
BROAD RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE MID ATLANTIC HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST OUT OVER
THE ATLANTIC ON MONDAY AND A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT WILL SET UP
JUST NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS FRONT WILL SAG AND LIFT AT
TIMES AND MAY BRUSH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGARDLESS THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR WARMING TEMPERATURES AND LOW END
POPS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY BE ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD THE BEST PERIODS OF RAIN CHANCES ARE
UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF THE MORNING BUT RAINS
HAVE ENDED AND THE RISK OF LLWS SHOULD ALSO WANE PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
CONDITIONS WILL BE SLOW TO IMPROVE TODAY...BUT SHOULD RETURN TO
VFR BY EITHER LATE DAY OR SOMETIME THIS EVENING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN ON FRIDAY.
CHANCES FOR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO LOWERING CEILINGS WILL
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NORTH...BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

&&

.MARINE...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS PASSING THROUGH THE OUTER
GEORGIA WATERS AT 08Z WILL MOVE OVER THE GULF STREAM THROUGH
10Z AND WE MAINTAINED THE GALE WARNING THROUGH 7 AM. OTHERWISE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WILL NEED TO BE RE-EVALUATED AROUND 6 AM
AS THE DEEP SURFACE LOW DEPARTS. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE LATER IN THE MORNING AS THE BACK-SIDE PRES GRADIENT
WEAKENS. IN AMZ350...AN ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A BIT
FOR SEAS.

NORTH FLOW WILL PERSIST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SPEEDS
MAINLY 15 KT OR LESS AND SEAS 2 TO 4 FT...HIGHEST OVER WATERS
BEYOND 20 NM...PERHAPS A FEW 5 FOOTERS NEAR THE GULF STREAM.

FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS IT DOES...THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS ESPECIALLY
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES LOOK NEARLY
CERTAIN FOR ALL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE WEEKEND. IN FACT...CHANCES
OF GALES APPEAR TO BE INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE WATERS AND
GALE WATCHES MAY EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS THREAT
IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST WILL SLIP EAST OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC
LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW
WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHEAST AND THEN SOUTH WITH TIME AND THE
GRADIENT WILL RELAX AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SIGNIFICANTLY.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330-
     352-354.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EST TODAY FOR AMZ350.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR AMZ374.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...BSH
LONG TERM...BSH
AVIATION...
MARINE...BSH




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