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000
FXUS62 KCHS 231703
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
103 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will gradually build into the area this afternoon
into tonight and will then move off the Southeast coast by late
Tuesday. The region will then remain under the western periphery
of Atlantic high pressure through Saturday. A wave of low pressure
may develop near Florida or the Bahamas early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Monday afternoon: Ongoing forecasts remain on track and required
few adjustments early Monday afternoon. The upper low centered
just east of KORF will continue to gradually lift ENE and away
from the region this afternoon. The residual deep-layered thermal
trough will support an expanding diurnal CU/SC field this
afternoon. However, despite recent high resolution model runs
depicting showers along the sea breeze across SE Berkeley/N
Charleston Counties this afternoon/early evening, maintained pops
below 15 percent with no explicit mention of precipitation due to
limited moisture depth and a strengthening subsidence inversion.
Temperatures are still expected to top out in the lower/mid 80s
inland and in the upper 70s on the beaches, a shade below normals
for May 23.

Tonight: The upper low will finally begin to make some northeastward
progress and weak high pressure will become centered near the
southeast coast. Clear skies will generally prevail and the forecast
is dry. Temperatures are progged to fall into the upper 50s for most
inland locations, ranging to the low to mid 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid and upper level cyclone off the mid Atlantic region at the
start of the period will pull north to a position near the coast of
New England early Wednesday, allowing for ridging aloft to build in
from the west through the short term period. The anticyclone aloft
will be situated above a sub-tropical Atlantic ridge that extends
west across the local district. Large scale subsidence, little
atmospheric moisture and the lack of forcing will supply us with
warmer conditions and no potential for any rain. Temps at 850 mb
reach 13-14C Tuesday, 14-15C Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in
max temps in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday, then hitting 90 in many
spots Wednesday and Thursday. Thanks to the sea breeze the shoreline
sections will be held to the upper 70s and lower 80s each
afternoon. Night time lows will average near late May norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is little change in the overall pattern through late in the
week, characterized by deep and strong ridging both surface and
aloft. Through Friday there remains little in the way of moisture,
with PWATs generally less than 1 inch and no forcing for any
convection. However, conditions may start to change later Saturday
or by early next week as a closed low develops aloft near the
Bahamas or Florida, perhaps allowing for a surface wave to form
underneath in a similar location late in the forecast period. It`ll
be tough for any significant northward penetration of tropical-like
moisture with the deep-layered ridging reluctant to move out of the
way. Thus our rain chances remain pretty small Saturday through
early next week, although with a deeper easterly flow to establish
itself, we have introduced slight chance/chance Pops into the
forecast Saturday through Monday. Temps will average near or
slightly above normal each day, and above average at night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through 18z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of today and tonight: Conditions across the local waters
will be very quiet as high pressure gradually builds today and
settles near the waters overnight. A weak pressure gradient will
result in wind speeds generally 10 knots or less, including an
afternoon/early evening sea breeze. Seas will remain 1-2 feet out
to 20 nm and 2-3 feet beyond.

Sub-tropical Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant feature
through late in the week, supplying marine interests with good to
excellent boating conditions. Although there will be a subtle boost
to winds each afternoon/evening due to sea breeze influences, the
gradient remains fairly light, holding winds at or below 15 kt. Seas
will eventually start to build late in the week, but prior to then
nothing higher than 2 or 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 231024
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
624 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the area today and then move off
the southeast coast by late Tuesday. The region will then remain
under the western periphery of Atlantic high pressure through
Saturday. A wave of low pressure may develop near Florida or the
Bahamas early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The overall pattern aloft will look very similar to Sunday
featuring a deep mid/upper level low centered near the North
Carolina/Virginia state line to start the day. The upper low will
then swing eastward through the day and then offshore by the
evening. The main shortwave and embedded channeled vorticity energy
will push southward through the forecast area in the morning, though
it will do so with little fanfare other than a few mid level clouds.
At the surface, the pattern will be rather benign as the surface low
east of the Delmarva peninsula loses its influence on the region and
high pressure over the Ohio valley gradually builds southward. The
main question will be how far south any shower/thunderstorm activity
can get under the forcing of the upper low. Model soundings continue
to present an environment that is quite hostile to convective
development thanks to warm and capped mid levels as well as deep
boundary layer mixing and LCL/LFC heights in excess of 7 kft. The
forecast remains dry, though it might not be out of the realm of
possibility to see a weak isolated shower develop along the
Charleston County seabreeze late in the afternoon. Certainly not
worth mentioning int he forecast. Model thickness values would give
highs in the low 80s and there doesn`t appear to be good reason for
this not to be realized given weak downslope flow. So, the forecast
features low 80s with some mid 80s across southeast Georgia.

Tonight: The upper low will finally begin to make some northeastward
progress and weak high pressure will become centered near the
southeast coast. Clear skies will generally prevail and the forecast
is dry. Temperatures are progged to fall into the upper 50s for most
inland locations, ranging to the low to mid 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid and upper level cyclone off the mid Atlantic region at the
start of the period will pull north to a position near the coast of
New England early Wednesday, allowing for ridging aloft to build in
from the west through the short term period. The anticyclone aloft
will be situated above a sub-tropical Atlantic ridge that extends
west across the local district. Large scale subsidence, little
atmospheric moisture and the lack of forcing will supply us with
warmer conditions and no potential for any rain. Temps at 850 mb
reach 13-14C Tuesday, 14-15C Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in
max temps in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday, then hitting 90 in many
spots Wednesday and Thursday. Thanks to the sea breeze the shoreline
sections will be held to the upper 70s and lower 80s each
afternoon. Night time lows will average near late May norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is little change in the overall pattern through late in the
week, characterized by deep and strong ridging both surface and
aloft. Through Friday there remains little in the way of moisture,
with PWATs generally less than 1 inch and no forcing for any
convection. However, conditions may start to change later Saturday
or by early next week as a closed low develops aloft near the
Bahamas or Florida, perhaps allowing for a surface wave to form
underneath in a similar location late in the forecast period. It`ll
be tough for any significant northward penetration of tropical-like
moisture with the deep-layered ridging reluctant to move out of the
way. Thus our rain chances remain pretty small Saturday through
early next week, although with a deeper easterly flow to establish
itself, we have introduced slight chance/chance Pops into the
forecast Saturday through Monday. Temps will average near or
slightly above normal each day, and above average at night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through 12z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Conditions across the local waters will be very
quiet as high pressure gradually builds in during the day and
settles near the waters overnight. A weak pressure gradient will
result in wind speeds generally 10 knots or less with seas 1-2 feet
out to 20 nm and 2-3 feet beyond.

Sub-tropical Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant feature
through late in the week, supplying marine interests with good to
excellent boating conditions. Although there will be a subtle boost
to winds each afternoon/evening due to sea breeze influences, the
gradient remains fairly light, holding winds at or below 15 kt. Seas
will eventually start to build late in the week, but prior to then
nothing higher than 2 or 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 231023
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
623 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build into the region and off the southeast coast
by late Tuesday. The region will then remain under the western
periphery of Atlantic high pressure through Saturday. A wave of low
pressure may develop near Florida or the Bahamas early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: The overall pattern aloft will look very similar to Sunday
featuring a deep mid/upper level low centered near the North
Carolina/Virginia state line to start the day. The upper low will
then swing eastward through the day and then offshore by the
evening. The main shortwave and embedded channeled vorticity energy
will push southward through the forecast area in the morning, though
it will do so with little fanfare other than a few mid level clouds.
At the surface, the pattern will be rather benign as the surface low
east of the Delmarva peninsula loses its influence on the region and
high pressure over the Ohio valley gradually builds southward. The
main question will be how far south any shower/thunderstorm activity
can get under the forcing of the upper low. Model soundings continue
to present an environment that is quite hostile to convective
development thanks to warm and capped mid levels as well as deep
boundary layer mixing and LCL/LFC heights in excess of 7 kft. The
forecast remains dry, though it might not be out of the realm of
possibility to see a weak isolated shower develop along the
Charleston County seabreeze late in the afternoon. Certainly not
worth mentioning int he forecast. Model thickness values would give
highs in the low 80s and there doesn`t appear to be good reason for
this not to be realized given weak downslope flow. So, the forecast
features low 80s with some mid 80s across southeast Georgia.

Tonight: The upper low will finally begin to make some northeastward
progress and weak high pressure will become centered near the
southeast coast. Clear skies will generally prevail and the forecast
is dry. Temperatures are progged to fall into the upper 50s for most
inland locations, ranging to the low to mid 60s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid and upper level cyclone off the mid Atlantic region at the
start of the period will pull north to a position near the coast of
New England early Wednesday, allowing for ridging aloft to build in
from the west through the short term period. The anticyclone aloft
will be situated above a sub-tropical Atlantic ridge that extends
west across the local district. Large scale subsidence, little
atmospheric moisture and the lack of forcing will supply us with
warmer conditions and no potential for any rain. Temps at 850 mb
reach 13-14C Tuesday, 14-15C Wednesday and Thursday, resulting in
max temps in the mid and upper 80s Tuesday, then hitting 90 in many
spots Wednesday and Thursday. Thanks to the sea breeze the shoreline
sections will be held to the upper 70s and lower 80s each
afternoon. Night time lows will average near late May norms.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
There is little change in the overall pattern through late in the
week, characterized by deep and strong ridging both surface and
aloft. Through Friday there remains little in the way of moisture,
with PWATs generally less than 1 inch and no forcing for any
convection. However, conditions may start to change later Saturday
or by early next week as a closed low develops aloft near the
Bahamas or Florida, perhaps allowing for a surface wave to form
underneath in a similar location late in the forecast period. It`ll
be tough for any significant northward penetration of tropical-like
moisture with the deep-layered ridging reluctant to move out of the
way. Thus our rain chances remain pretty small Saturday through
early next week, although with a deeper easterly flow to establish
itself, we have introduced slight chance/chance Pops into the
forecast Saturday through Monday. Temps will average near or
slightly above normal each day, and above average at night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through 12z Tuesday.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and tonight: Conditions across the local waters will be very
quiet as high pressure gradually builds in during the day and
settles near the waters overnight. A weak pressure gradient will
result in wind speeds generally 10 knots or less with seas 1-2 feet
out to 20 nm and 2-3 feet beyond.

Sub-tropical Atlantic high pressure will be the dominant feature
through late in the week, supplying marine interests with good to
excellent boating conditions. Although there will be a subtle boost
to winds each afternoon/evening due to sea breeze influences, the
gradient remains fairly light, holding winds at or below 15 kt. Seas
will eventually start to build late in the week, but prior to then
nothing higher than 2 or 3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 230233
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1033 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will remain the primary feature through tonight.
High pressure will then gradually build into the region Monday
through Tuesday. By Wednesday the high will push off the Southeast
coast, and the region will remain under its western periphery
through the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
Isolated showers will be possible overnight as an upper cutoff low
and associated shortwave energy shift southeast toward the NC
Outer Banks and a surface trough persists across SC. Main impact
will be an increase in clouds but rain chances appear very low.
Below- normal temps in the mid to upper 50s inland and lower to
mid 60s near the coast are expected toward daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The pattern aloft will begin with a deep
upper low situated near the Delmarva with lower heights extending
southward across the forecast area. The upper low will begin to pull
away to the northeast and is progged to be just south of the Cape
Cod area by Tuesday morning. At the surface, high pressure across
the Ohio valley will gradually build southward and into the lee of
the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning. Overall, the day looks
to be very quiet with very limited moisture noted in soundings and
time heights, mainly in the 5-10 K ft layer. The models are trying
to generate some shower/thunderstorm activity to our north Monday
afternoon as shortwave energy pinwheels around the upper low. We
continue to think this scenario is unlikely given the downslope flow
and dry atmosphere, instead expecting some scattered to occasionally
broken cumulus clouds. Temperatures will be at or slightly below
normal, ranging from the upper 70s in our far northern zones to the
mid 80s in our southern zones and cooler along the beaches.
Overnight, the quiet conditions continue and lows are forecast to
fall into the upper 50s well inland and the mid 60s at the beaches.

Tuesday through Wednesday: As the upper low pulls further away to
the northeast, broad ridging will build in across the eastern half
of the CONUS. High pressure will slip off the southeast coast by the
middle of the week and a very quiet stretch of weather will settle
in. The main forecast issue for this time period will be the warming
and moderating temperatures. Highs will reach back to near normal on
Tuesday, followed by above normal upper 80s to lower 90s by
Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look very quiet and no
significant changes were made. A deep and prominent upper ridge will
continue to build up the eastern seaboard and heights will continue
to rise across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the Atlantic will remain nearly stationary and promote a rather
modest south to southeast flow across the southeast coast. Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of a subsidence
inversion with warm temperatures noted around 600 mb that will keep
much, if any, convective development from occurring. With the ridge
aloft, temperatures are expected to be mild. Highs are forecast into
the upper 80s for most areas with a limited diurnal range and lows
only in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through 00Z Tue. Isolated showers possible around KCHS, mainly
through this evening, but no significant impacts expected.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight...the coastal waters will remain within the circulation of
low pressure centered off the NC coast. NW winds will average 5-15
kt and will be accompanied by seas 1-3 ft within near shore waters
and 3-4 ft beyond 20 nm.

Monday through Friday: Tranquil conditions are expected this entire
period. Inland high pressure will approach Monday and Tuesday,
allowing winds to sometimes be variable and generally under 10 kt.
By Wednesday the high will move off the Southeast coast and the
region will remain under its western periphery through the end of
the week. Winds will then mainly be out of the south at less than 15
kt. For the entire period seas will range from 1-3 feet, highest for
the outer GA waters.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...MS
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...MS/RJB
MARINE...MS/RJB





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221718
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
118 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
This afternoon into tonight, low pressure will develop off the
North Carolina coast and will move northeast, pushing a cold front
away from the Southeast coast and further into the Atlantic. High
pressure will then gradually build into the region Monday through
Tuesday. By Wednesday the high will push off the Southeast coast,
and the region will remain under its western periphery through the
start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Sunday afternoon: As expected warming at the surface and cooling
temps aloft supported an expanding cumulus field across the
region, and showers noted north/northwest of the region in advance
of a strong shortwave pressing east/southeast into the region.
Per area radar trends and recent guidance, opted to raise pops to
15-20 percent for isolated showers/thunderstorms across parts of
Berkeley/Charleston Counties, mainly north of I-26, this
afternoon/early evening. Will assess trends and adjust pops as
needed.

While MUCAPES should remain at or below 500 K/KG, mid level lapse
rates will continue to steepen as 500 mb temps cool to near -15c.
Further, inverted-V profiles/DCAPEs approaching 1000 J/kg,
700-500 mb winds 30-40 knots and cooling mid levels/wet bulb zero
heights 8-9 kft suggest the potential for isolated lightning,
gusty winds and small hail across northern counties. Otherwise,
high temps in the lower 80s will remain common, even on the
beaches due to offshore flow. Exceptions include upper 70s near
the Santee River and mid 80s near the lower Altamaha River. These
temps are a few degrees below normal for May 22.

Tonight: The mid and upper closed cyclone makes it about as far
south as the Virginia/North Carolina border and causes a wave of
low pressure off the outer banks of North Carolina to deepen into
a 1006 mb low about 150-200 nm east of the Great Dismal Swamp.
There is a continued feed of dry continental air in the flow
between that system and high pressure centered in Michigan. Thus
even though another strong short wave pivots into the area around
the low aloft, there is very little moisture available to wring
out any precip after sunset. Mostly clear skies and weak cool
advection will allow for low temps to fall to their lowest levels
in about 2 weeks for many communities, and actually below normal
for May 23rd.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The pattern aloft will begin with a deep
upper low situated near the Delmarva with lower heights extending
southward across the forecast area. The upper low will begin to pull
away to the northeast and is progged to be just south of the Cape
Cod area by Tuesday morning. At the surface, high pressure across
the Ohio valley will gradually build southward and into the lee of
the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning. Overall, the day looks
to be very quiet with very limited moisture noted in soundings and
time heights, mainly in the 5-10 K ft layer. A few models are
trying to kick off some shower/thunderstorm activity Monday
afternoon as shortwave energy pinwheels around the upper low. The
current thinking though is that this scenario is unlikely given
the downslope flow and the fact that LCL/LFC heights are around
7.5 K ft. Instead, we will likely see scattered to occasionally
broken high based cumulus. As such, the forecast remains dry.
Temperatures will be quite comfortable, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s (4-6 degrees below normal). Overnight, the quiet
conditions continue and lows are forecast to fall into the upper
50s well inland, ranging to the mid/upper 60s at the beaches.

Tuesday through Wednesday: As the upper low pulls further away to
the northeast, broad ridging will build in across the eastern half
of the CONUS. High pressure will slip off the southeast coast by the
middle of the week and a very quiet stretch of weather will settle
in. The main forecast issue for this time period will be the warming
and moderating temperatures. Highs will reach back to near normal on
Tuesday, followed by above normal upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look very quiet and no
significant changes were made. A deep and prominent upper ridge will
continue to build up the eastern seaboard and heights will continue
to rise across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the Atlantic will remain nearly stationary and promote a rather
modest south to southeast flow across the southeast coast. Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of a subsidence
inversion with warm temperatures noted around 600 mb that will keep
much, if any, convective development from occurring. With the ridge
aloft, temperatures are expected to be mild. Highs are forecast into
the upper 80s for most areas with a limited diurnal range and lows
only in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR through 18z Monday. isolated showers will develop in the KCHS
vicinity for a few hours this afternoon/early evening, and a
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
This afternoon: Isolated showers/thunderstorms could impact SC
waters mainly north of Charleston Harbor this afternoon/early
evening. Otherwise, circulation around developing off the North
Carolina coast will maintain mainly NW winds 15 kt or less. Seas
will range from 1-3 ft within near shore waters to 2-4 ft beyond
20 nm.

Tonight: The surface low off the North Carolina coast will slowly
deepen as it heads northward, while high pressure persist over
much of the eastern states. North and northwest winds at or below
15 kt will prevail, with little change in the sea state.

Monday through Friday: Overall conditions look quite tranquil
across the local waters with winds generally less than 15 knots
and seas 1-3 feet, highest for the outer waters. Inland high
pressure will approach Monday and Tuesday before slipping offshore
through the middle of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday the flow
will become predominantly south to southeasterly.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...SPR





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221127
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
727 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pull further into the Atlantic today, as low
pressure forms off the coast of North Carolina and moves northeast
through tonight. High pressure will then gradually build into the
region through Tuesday. By Wednesday the high will push off the
southeast coast and the region will remain under its western
periphery through the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For today: The large scale pattern across the continental United
States depicts an Omega Block, featuring a sharp and digging
trough in the east that eventually develops in to a closed low
across the Virginia`s, ridging in the central states and an
evolving low near and north of Montana. The closed low drifts
south through the day as vigorous short wave energy rotating
around the low drops into the area during the afternoon, creating
a small decline in heights aloft. This actually develops a surface
reflection as a post- frontal trough that arrives with the short
wave during peak heating. Moisture profiles will continue to dry
out within a deep west- northwest flow through the vertical, but
there remains modest moisture in a layer from about 3-7k feet.
This coincides with decent lapse rates as 500 mb temps cool to
near -15c and somewhat stronger wind fields from 500 mb up to the
jet stream level. In all likelihood with large dew point
depressions of at least 20-25F, this will just cause a scattered
to broken field of cumulus clouds for the afternoon, but there
does remain a low end chance (less than 15 percent) for a couple
of showers and/or t-storms in extreme northeast Berkeley and far
northern Charleston counties around 2-6 pm. Should anything get
this far south with DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg there could be
strong and gusty winds. And a worst case scenario might also allow
for a little small hail with WBZ 8-9K ft.

The downslope trajectories of the Appalachians and considerable
insolation will boost max temps to near 80 near the Santee River
basin, lower 80s most other places, except a few mid 80s over
McIntosh and Long counties.

Tonight: The mid and upper closed cyclone makes it about as far
south as the Virginia/North Carolina border and causes a wave of
low pressure off the outer banks of North Carolina to deepen into
a 1006 mb low about 150-200 nm east of the Great Dismal Swamp.
There is a continued feed of dry continental air in the flow
between that system and high pressure centered in Michigan. Thus
even though another strong short wave pivots into the area around
the low aloft, there is very little moisture available to wring
out any precip after sunset. Mostly clear skies and weak cool
advection will allow for low temps to fall to their lowest levels
in about 2 weeks for many communities, and actually below normal
for May 23rd.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The pattern aloft will begin with a deep
upper low situated near the Delmarva with lower heights extending
southward across the forecast area. The upper low will begin to pull
away to the northeast and is progged to be just south of the Cape
Cod area by Tuesday morning. At the surface, high pressure across
the Ohio valley will gradually build southward and into the lee of
the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning. Overall, the day looks
to be very quiet with very limited moisture noted in soundings and
time heights, mainly in the 5-10 K ft layer. A few models are
trying to kick off some shower/thunderstorm activity Monday
afternoon as shortwave energy pinwheels around the upper low. The
current thinking though is that this scenario is unlikely given
the downslope flow and the fact that LCL/LFC heights are around
7.5 K ft. Instead, we will likely see scattered to occasionally
broken high based cumulus. As such, the forecast remains dry.
Temperatures will be quite comfortable, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s (4-6 degrees below normal). Overnight, the quiet
conditions continue and lows are forecast to fall into the upper
50s well inland, ranging to the mid/upper 60s at the beaches.

Tuesday through Wednesday: As the upper low pulls further away to
the northeast, broad ridging will build in across the eastern half
of the CONUS. High pressure will slip off the southeast coast by the
middle of the week and a very quiet stretch of weather will settle
in. The main forecast issue for this time period will be the warming
and moderating temperatures. Highs will reach back to near normal on
Tuesday, followed by above normal upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look very quiet and no
significant changes were made. A deep and prominent upper ridge will
continue to build up the eastern seaboard and heights will continue
to rise across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the Atlantic will remain nearly stationary and promote a rather
modest south to southeast flow across the southeast coast. Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of a subsidence
inversion with warm temperatures noted around 600 mb that will keep
much, if any, convective development from occurring. With the ridge
aloft, temperatures are expected to be mild. Highs are forecast into
the upper 80s for most areas with a limited diurnal range and lows
only in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail, although there could be a stray shra or maybe
even a tsra to the north/northeast of the KCHS terminal during
the mid and late afternoon hours as a shortwave trough moves
through. But probabilities of a direct impact, even if any
convection is able to develop and make it this far south, is far
too remote to include with the 12z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The cold front will shift east of the marine area early this
morning, as a wave of low pressure on the front begins to take shape
about 100 nm off the coast of southeast North Carolina. That low
drifts northeast through the day, but it continues to impede the
east and southeast progression of high pressure from the Great
Lakes to the lower MS Valley. The sea breeze won`t be able to form
today with a deep offshore flow, as winds average northwest around
10 or 15 kt. Exposed areas of the Charleston Harbor can experience
a little higher winds at times as the flow is directly blowing
the length of the harbor.

Not much wave action due to the offshore fetch, with
a mix of small swells and small wind driven waves.

Tonight: The surface low off the North Carolina coast will slowly
deepen as it heads northward, while high pressure persist over
much of the eastern states. North and northwest winds at or below
15 kt will prevail, with little change in the sea state.

Mariners are advised that a couple of t-storms might affect the
far northern waters off the coast of the Santee River late today
into this evening. Probabilities however are less than 20 percent
of such an occurrence, but strong and gusty winds can occur if
any of them can get this far south.

Monday through Friday: Overall conditions look quite tranquil
across the local waters with winds generally less than 15 knots
and seas 1-3 feet, highest for the outer waters. Inland high
pressure will approach Monday and Tuesday before slipping offshore
through the middle of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday the flow
will become predominantly south to southeasterly.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 221022
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
622 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will pull further into the Atlantic today, as low
pressure forms off the coast of North Carolina and moves northeast
through tonight. High pressure will then gradually build into the
region through Tuesday. By Wednesday the high will push off the
southeast coast and the region will remain under its western
periphery through the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
For today: The large scale pattern across the continental United
States depicts an Omega Block, featuring a sharp and digging
trough in the east that eventually develops in to a closed low
across the Virginia`s, ridging in the central states and an
evolving low near and north of Montana. The closed low drifts
south through the day as vigorous short wave energy rotating
around the low drops into the area during the afternoon, creating
a small decline in heights aloft. This actually develops a surface
reflection as a post- frontal trough that arrives with the short
wave during peak heating. Moisture profiles will continue to dry
out within a deep west- northwest flow through the vertical, but
there remains modest moisture in a layer from about 3-7k feet.
This coincides with decent lapse rates as 500 mb temps cool to
near -15c and somewhat stronger wind fields from 500 mb up to the
jet stream level. In all likelihood with large dew point
depressions of at least 20-25F, this will just cause a scattered
to broken field of cumulus clouds for the afternoon, but there
does remain a low end chance (less than 15 percent) for a couple
of showers and/or t-storms in extreme northeast Berkeley and far
northern Charleston counties around 2-6 pm. Should anything get
this far south with DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg there could be
strong and gusty winds. And a worst case scenario might also allow
for a little small hail with WBZ 8-9K ft.

The downslope trajectories of the Appalachians and considerable
insolation will boost max temps to near 80 near the Santee River
basin, lower 80s most other places, except a few mid 80s over
McIntosh and Long counties.

Tonight: The mid and upper closed cyclone makes it about as far
south as the Virginia/North Carolina border and causes a wave of
low pressure off the outer banks of North Carolina to deepen into
a 1006 mb low about 150-200 nm east of the Great Dismal Swamp.
There is a continued feed of dry continental air in the flow
between that system and high pressure centered in Michigan. Thus
even though another strong short wave pivots into the area around
the low aloft, there is very little moisture available to wring
out any precip after sunset. Mostly clear skies and weak cool
advection will allow for low temps to fall to their lowest levels
in about 2 weeks for many communities, and actually below normal
for May 23rd.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The pattern aloft will begin with a deep
upper low situated near the Delmarva with lower heights extending
southward across the forecast area. The upper low will begin to pull
away to the northeast and is progged to be just south of the Cape
Cod area by Tuesday morning. At the surface, high pressure across
the Ohio valley will gradually build southward and into the lee of
the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning. Overall, the day looks
to be very quiet with very limited moisture noted in soundings and
time heights, mainly in the 5-10 K ft layer. A few models are
trying to kick off some shower/thunderstorm activity Monday
afternoon as shortwave energy pinwheels around the upper low. The
current thinking though is that this scenario is unlikely given
the downslope flow and the fact that LCL/LFC heights are around
7.5 K ft. Instead, we will likely see scattered to occasionally
broken high based cumulus. As such, the forecast remains dry.
Temperatures will be quite comfortable, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s (4-6 degrees below normal). Overnight, the quiet
conditions continue and lows are forecast to fall into the upper
50s well inland, ranging to the mid/upper 60s at the beaches.

Tuesday through Wednesday: As the upper low pulls further away to
the northeast, broad ridging will build in across the eastern half
of the CONUS. High pressure will slip off the southeast coast by the
middle of the week and a very quiet stretch of weather will settle
in. The main forecast issue for this time period will be the warming
and moderating temperatures. Highs will reach back to near normal on
Tuesday, followed by above normal upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look very quiet and no
significant changes were made. A deep and prominent upper ridge will
continue to build up the eastern seaboard and heights will continue
to rise across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the Atlantic will remain nearly stationary and promote a rather
modest south to southeast flow across the southeast coast. Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of a subsidence
inversion with warm temperatures noted around 600 mb that will keep
much, if any, convective development from occurring. With the ridge
aloft, temperatures are expected to be mild. Highs are forecast into
the upper 80s for most areas with a limited diurnal range and lows
only in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail, although there could be a stray shra or maybe
even a tsra to the north/northeast of the KCHS terminal during
the mid and late afternoon hours as a shortwave trough moves
through. But probabilities of a direct impact, even if any
convection is able to develop, is far too remote to include with
the 06z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: The cold front will shift east of the marine area early this
morning, as a wave of low pressure on the front begins to take shape
about 100 nm off the coast of southeast North Carolina. That low
drifts northeast through the day, but it continues to impede the
east and southeast progression of high pressure from the Great
Lakes to the lower MS Valley. The sea breeze won`t be able to form
today with a deep offshore flow, as winds average northwest around
10 or 15 kt. Not much wave action due to the offshore fetch, with
a mix of small swells and small wind driven waves.

Tonight: The surface low off the North Carolina coast will slowly
deepen as it heads northward, while high pressure persist over
much of the eastern states. North and northwest winds at or below
15 kt will prevail, with little change in the sea state.

Mariners are advised that a couple of t-storms might affect the
far northern waters off the coast of the Santee River late today
into this evening. Probabilities however are less than 20 percent
of such an occurrence, but strong and gusty winds can occur if
any of them can get this far south.

Monday through Friday: Overall conditions look quite tranquil
across the local waters with winds generally less than 15 knots
and seas 1-3 feet, highest for the outer waters. Inland high
pressure will approach Monday and Tuesday before slipping offshore
through the middle of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday the flow
will become predominantly south to southeasterly.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220748
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
348 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move into the Atlantic early this morning, as
low pressure forms off the coast of the Carolinas and moves
northeast through tonight. High pressure will then gradually
build into the region through Tuesday. By Wednesday the high will
push off the southeast coast and the region will remain under its
western periphery through the start of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning: A cold front will push through and off by the
coast by daybreak, noted by slightly cooler and drier air and/or a
wind shift to the northwest. The last of a few showers over
coastal McIntosh will pull into the Atlantic and skies will be or
turn out to be generally clear.

For today: The large scale pattern across the continental United
States depicts an Omega Block, featuring a sharp and digging
trough in the east that eventually develops in to a closed low
across the Virginia`s, ridging in the central states and an
evolving low near and north of Montana. The closed low drifts
south through the day as vigorous short wave energy rotating
around the low drops into the area during the afternoon, creating
a small decline in heights aloft. This actually develops a surface
reflection as a post- frontal trough that arrives with the short
wave during peak heating. Moisture profiles will continue to dry
out within a deep west- northwest flow through the vertical, but
there remains modest moisture in a layer from about 3-7k feet.
This coincides with decent lapse rates as 500 mb temps cool to
near -15c and somewhat stronger wind fields from 500 mb up to the
jet stream level. In all likelihood with large dew point
depressions of at least 20-25F, this will just cause a scattered
to broken field of cumulus clouds for the afternoon, but there
does remain a low end chance (less than 15 percent) for a couple
of showers and/or t-storms in extreme northeast Berkeley and far
northern Charleston counties around 2-6 pm. Should anything get
this far south with DCAPE in excess of 1000 J/kg there could be
strong and gusty winds. And a worst case scenario might also allow
for a little small hail with WBZ 8-9K ft.

The downslope trajectories of the Appalachians and considerable
insolation will boost max temps to near 80 near the Santee River
basin, lower 80s most other places, except a few mid 80s over
McIntosh and Long counties.

Tonight: The mid and upper closed cyclone makes it about as far
south as the Virginia/North Carolina border and causes a wave of
low pressure off the outer banks of North Carolina to deepen into
a 1006 mb low about 150-200 nm east of the Great Dismal Swamp.
There is a continued feed of dry continental air in the flow
between that system and high pressure centered in Michigan. Thus
even though another strong short wave pivots into the area around
the low aloft, there is very little moisture available to wring
out any precip after sunset. Mostly clear skies and weak cool
advection will allow for low temps to fall to their lowest levels
in about 2 weeks for many communities, and actually below normal
for May 23rd.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Monday and Monday night: The pattern aloft will begin with a deep
upper low situated near the Delmarva with lower heights extending
southward across the forecast area. The upper low will begin to pull
away to the northeast and is progged to be just south of the Cape
Cod area by Tuesday morning. At the surface, high pressure across
the Ohio valley will gradually build southward and into the lee of
the southern Appalachians by Tuesday morning. Overall, the day looks
to be very quiet with very limited moisture noted in soundings and
time heights, mainly in the 5-10 K ft layer. A few models are
trying to kick off some shower/thunderstorm activity Monday
afternoon as shortwave energy pinwheels around the upper low. The
current thinking though is that this scenario is unlikely given
the downslope flow and the fact that LCL/LFC heights are around
7.5 K ft. Instead, we will likely see scattered to occasionally
broken high based cumulus. As such, the forecast remains dry.
Temperatures will be quite comfortable, with highs in the upper
70s to low 80s (4-6 degrees below normal). Overnight, the quiet
conditions continue and lows are forecast to fall into the upper
50s well inland, ranging to the mid/upper 60s at the beaches.

Tuesday through Wednesday: As the upper low pulls further away to
the northeast, broad ridging will build in across the eastern half
of the CONUS. High pressure will slip off the southeast coast by the
middle of the week and a very quiet stretch of weather will settle
in. The main forecast issue for this time period will be the warming
and moderating temperatures. Highs will reach back to near normal on
Tuesday, followed by above normal upper 80s to near 90 by Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The long term forecast period continues to look very quiet and no
significant changes were made. A deep and prominent upper ridge will
continue to build up the eastern seaboard and heights will continue
to rise across the forecast area. At the surface, high pressure over
the Atlantic will remain nearly stationary and promote a rather
modest south to southeast flow across the southeast coast. Model
soundings continue to indicate the presence of a subsidence
inversion with warm temperatures noted around 600 mb that will keep
much, if any, convective development from occurring. With the ridge
aloft, temperatures are expected to be mild. Highs are forecast into
the upper 80s for most areas with a limited diurnal range and lows
only in the upper 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail, although there could be a stray shra or maybe
even a tsra to the north/northeast of the KCHS terminal during
the mid and late afternoon hours as a shortwave trough moves
through. But probabilities of a direct impact, even if any
convection is able to develop, is far too remote to include with
the 06z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR conditions will prevail.


&&

.MARINE...
Today: The cold front will clear the marine area early this
morning, as a wave of low pressure on the front begins to take
shape about 100 nm off the coast of southeast North Carolina. That
low drifts northeast through the day, but it continues to impede
the progress of high pressure from the Great Lakes to the lower
MS Valley. The sea breeze won`t be able to form today with a deep
offshore flow, as winds average northwest around 10 or 15 kt. Not
much wave action with the offshore fetch, with a mix of small
swells and small wind driven waves.

Tonight: The surface low off the North Carolina coast will slowly
deepen as it heads northward, while high pressure persist over
much of the eastern states. North and northwest winds at or below
15 kt will prevail, with little change in the sea state.

Mariners are advised that a couple of t-storms might affect the
far northern waters off the coast of the Santee River late today
into this evening. Probabilities however are less than 20 percent
of such an occurrence, but strong and gusty winds can occur if
any of them can get this far south.

Monday through Friday: Overall conditions look quite tranquil
across the local waters with winds generally less than 15 knots
and seas 1-3 feet, highest for the outer waters. Inland high
pressure will approach Monday and Tuesday before slipping offshore
through the middle of the week. By Wednesday and Thursday the flow
will become predominantly south to southeasterly.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220519
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
119 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight. Behind the front, high
pressure will gradually build in through early next week. High
pressure will then shift offshore by the middle and later portions
of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The biggest change for the overnight update were made for recent
trends to raise temps initially a couple of degrees ahead of the
cold front, and also some minor adjustments to cloud cover and
winds.

Cold front will enter our northwest tier overnight, passing
through the coastal sections closer to daybreak. While parts of
southeast GA to the south of I-16 can still experience a showers,
the risk of rain has pretty much ended. Cool advection behind the
front will knock lows down to the lower and middle 60s inland,
upper 60s on the barrier islands as winds shift around to the west
and northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: A deep upper level trough will be centered over the mid
Atlantic states, with the axis extending southward through the area.
At the surface, a cold front will be offshore with low level
northwest flow. An upper vort axis moves across the region during
the afternoon, but deep layer moisture appears insufficient to have
pops mentioned. However, this feature will likely help increase some
afternoon cumulus. Temperatures will peak in the lower 80s, which is
near to slightly below normal. By Sunday night, the upper trough
center will shift southward toward the region, but still not
expecting any measurable precipitation. Bands of enhanced moisture
will rotate around the base of the upper trough, which will likely
keep partly cloudy conditions over the northern half of the region.
Lows will be cooler, in the mid to upper 50s with light northerly
winds.

Monday: The upper low center will begin to move off the mid Atlantic
coast as deep layer heights begin to rise from the west. Again, deep
layer moisture too low to mention any pops. Highs again a little
below normal, in the lower 80s north to the mid 80s extreme south.
Monday night, the upper low continues to move north and east with
rising heights/pressure from the west. Expect mostly clear skies,
light winds and temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: Deep layer ridging continues to build from the west as the
upper low moves toward New England. Low level flow veers to south-
southwest, with winds turning onshore near the coast in the
afternoon. Continued dry with highs back toward normal in the mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR will prevail, although there could be a stray shra or maybe
even a tsra near the KCHS terminal during the mid and late
afternoon hours on Sunday as a shortwave trough moves through. But
probabilities of a direct impact, even if any convection is able
to develop, is far too remote to include with the 06z TAFs.

Extended Aviation Outlook:
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR is expected to prevail.
Wednesday and Thursday: Brief flight restrictions possible during
the afternoon for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pull a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. Isolated to scattered showers/t-storms
with gusty winds are possible across the outer GA waters ahead of
the front. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around to the
west/northwest as the cold front approaches late and land breeze
influences develop. Winds and seas outside of storms will be well
below advisory thresholds.

No highlights expected through the period with winds generally 15
knots or less and sea 4 feet or less. A cold front will be just
passing through the area by Sunday morning, with high pressure
gradually building in from the west through mid week as a low
pressure system slowly moves up the mid Atlantic coast toward the
northeast U.S. coast. West-northwest winds may briefly surge to 15
to 20 knots Sunday morning behind the initial cold front, then again
Sunday night behind a secondary front. Winds becoming light and
variable Monday and Monday night, then veering to southerly Tuesday
through Thursday 10 to 15 knots. Increasing chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday as better deep
layer moisture moves in from the southwest.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 220442
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1242 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move through tonight. Behind the front, high
pressure will gradually build in through early next week. High
pressure will then shift offshore by the middle and later portions
of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
The biggest change for the overnight update were made for recent
trends to raise temps initially a couple of degrees ahead of the
cold front, and also some minor adjustments to cloud cover and
winds.

Cold front will enter our northwest tier overnight, passing
through the coastal sections closer to daybreak. While parts of
southeast GA to the south of I-16 can still experience a showers,
the risk of rain has pretty much ended. Cool advection behind the
front will knock lows down to the lower and middle 60s inland,
upper 60s on the barrier islands as winds shift around to the west
and northwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: A deep upper level trough will be centered over the mid
Atlantic states, with the axis extending southward through the area.
At the surface, a cold front will be offshore with low level
northwest flow. An upper vort axis moves across the region during
the afternoon, but deep layer moisture appears insufficient to have
pops mentioned. However, this feature will likely help increase some
afternoon cumulus. Temperatures will peak in the lower 80s, which is
near to slightly below normal. By Sunday night, the upper trough
center will shift southward toward the region, but still not
expecting any measurable precipitation. Bands of enhanced moisture
will rotate around the base of the upper trough, which will likely
keep partly cloudy conditions over the northern half of the region.
Lows will be cooler, in the mid to upper 50s with light northerly
winds.

Monday: The upper low center will begin to move off the mid Atlantic
coast as deep layer heights begin to rise from the west. Again, deep
layer moisture too low to mention any pops. Highs again a little
below normal, in the lower 80s north to the mid 80s extreme south.
Monday night, the upper low continues to move north and east with
rising heights/pressure from the west. Expect mostly clear skies,
light winds and temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: Deep layer ridging continues to build from the west as the
upper low moves toward New England. Low level flow veers to south-
southwest, with winds turning onshore near the coast in the
afternoon. Continued dry with highs back toward normal in the mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR, although there could be some showers mainly around
KCHS Sun afternoon as a shortwave trough moves through but not
worth mentioning at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook:
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR is expected to prevail.
Wednesday and Thursday: Brief flight restrictions possible during
the afternoon for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pull a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. Isolated to scattered showers/t-storms
with gusty winds are possible ahead of the front. Otherwise,
southwest winds will veer around to the west/northwest as the cold
front approaches late and land breeze influences develop. Winds
and seas outside of storms will be well below advisory thresholds.

No highlights expected through the period with winds generally 15
knots or less and sea 4 feet or less. A cold front will be just
passing through the area by Sunday morning, with high pressure
gradually building in from the west through mid week as a low
pressure system slowly moves up the mid Atlantic coast toward the
northeast U.S. coast. West-northwest winds may briefly surge to 15
to 20 knots Sunday morning behind the initial cold front, then again
Sunday night behind a secondary front. Winds becoming light and
variable Monday and Monday night, then veering to southerly Tuesday
through Thursday 10 to 15 knots. Increasing chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday as better deep
layer moisture moves in from the southwest.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 212244
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
644 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region tonight. Behind the front,
high pressure will gradually build in through early next week.
High pressure will then shift offshore by the middle and later
portions of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
Update: Sub-severe line of showers/storms pushing into southeast
GA while isolated weak convection exists farther north. Looks like
dry air will be tough to overcome to get much severe weather but
can`t completely rule out isolated damaging wind gusts with any
stronger storms.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. A cold front will
move through mainly after midnight, preceded by showers/t-storms.
Following frontal passage, drier air and clearing skies will start
building into the area. Cooler air arriving after midnight will
allow temperatures to drop into the 60s...warmest near the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday: A deep upper level trough will be centered over the mid
Atlantic states, with the axis extending southward through the area.
At the surface, a cold front will be offshore with low level
northwest flow. An upper vort axis moves across the region during
the afternoon, but deep layer moisture appears insufficient to have
pops mentioned. However, this feature will likely help increase some
afternoon cumulus. Temperatures will peak in the lower 80s, which is
near to slightly below normal. By Sunday night, the upper trough
center will shift southward toward the region, but still not
expecting any measurable precipitation. Bands of enhanced moisture
will rotate around the base of the upper trough, which will likely
keep partly cloudy conditions over the northern half of the region.
Lows will be cooler, in the mid to upper 50s with light northerly
winds.

Monday: The upper low center will begin to move off the mid Atlantic
coast as deep layer heights begin to rise from the west. Again, deep
layer moisture too low to mention any pops. Highs again a little
below normal, in the lower 80s north to the mid 80s extreme south.
Monday night, the upper low continues to move north and east with
rising heights/pressure from the west. Expect mostly clear skies,
light winds and temperatures in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

Tuesday: Deep layer ridging continues to build from the west as the
upper low moves toward New England. Low level flow veers to south-
southwest, with winds turning onshore near the coast in the
afternoon. Continued dry with highs back toward normal in the mid
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mainly VFR at KCHS and SAV through 00Z Mon. A cold front will
move through from the west overnight but prospects for any
showers/thunderstorms at the terms through this evening are low
given latest radar trends and overall dry environment so we did
not mention in 00Z TAFs. Also there could be some showers mainly
around KCHS Sun afternoon as a shortwave trough moves through but
not worth mentioning at this time.

Extended Aviation Outlook:
Sunday through Tuesday: VFR is expected to prevail.
Wednesday and Thursday: Brief flight restrictions possible during
the afternoon for isolated to scattered showers/thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pull a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. Showers/t-storms with gusty winds are
possible ahead of the front through this evening. Otherwise,
south/southwest winds will veer around the the west/northwest
after midnight once the cold front passes through. Winds and seas
outside of storms will be well below advisory thresholds.

No highlights expected through the period with winds generally 15
knots or less and sea 4 feet or less. A cold front will be just
passing through the area by Sunday morning, with high pressure
gradually building in from the west through mid week as a low
pressure system slowly moves up the mid Atlantic coast toward the
northeast U.S. coast. West-northwest winds may briefly surge to 15
to 20 knots Sunday morning behind the initial cold front, then again
Sunday night behind a secondary front. Winds becoming light and
variable Monday and Monday night, then veering to southerly Tuesday
through Thursday 10 to 15 knots. Increasing chances for scattered
showers and thunderstorms by Wednesday and Thursday as better deep
layer moisture moves in from the southwest.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211723
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
123 PM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the northeast this morning, then
gives way to a cold front that will cross the region late today.
Behind the front high pressure will gradually build in through
early next week. The high will then shift offshore by the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Afternoon update: No changes to the forecast as everything appears
to be on track. Convection is starting to develop across north
central GA and is moving to the southeast. If the current trends
keep up this convection might make its way into our area beginning
between 5 and 6 pm. The next package should better reflect this
potential.

This afternoon: Low pressure hugging the NC Atlantic coast this
morning will continue to pull off to the northeast, as a well
defined short wave pivots through the lower Great lakes and Ohio
Valley.

An influx of considerable dry air in the mid/upper reaches of the
troposphere as shown on water vapor imagery will overspread the
area within a deep westerly flow. This will allow for a scouring
out of clouds for a time, but spokes of vorticity rotating around
the low aloft in the Ohio Valley and sufficient moisture stuck
beneath 700 mb will cause a decent cumulus field to form this
afternoon. The downslope trajectories from off the Appalachians
and 850 mb temps that climb to 15-16C will allow temps to climb to
the middle 80s. But the resultant sea breeze that forms in the
afternoon will hold max temps over the upper SC coast to the upper
70s and lower 80s.

That sea breeze will be a focus for convection this afternoon,
along with a cold front that approaches from the NW. While the
better forcing stays to the north, these warm temps will generate
SBCAPEs in excess of 1,000 or 1,500 J/kg and LI`s as low as -5 or
-6C. This should allow for at least isolated showers/t-storms to
develop around 2 or 3 pm along and near the sea breeze in addition
to differential heating boundaries in advance of the cold front
(caused by areas of clouds and ares of sun this morning). The
drier air and flow off the mountains will work against the
development of convection, but at the same time it will steepen
lapse rates. This could lead to a risk for isolated severe storms
with DCAPEs greater than 1,000 J/kg and the potential for
damaging winds late in the day. Nothing organized, but still a low
end chance after 3 or 4 pm.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. Trailing from the
low a cold front will sweep through around 11 pm-2 am, preceded
by a pre-frontal trough that could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/t-storms. Some of the High-Res models are hinting at the
possibility of squall line developing as there is an interaction
of the remnants of the sea breeze with the approaching front. With
30-35 kt of Bulk Shear in the 0-6 km layer this is certainly
possible. DCAPEs are still greater than 1,000 J/kg during this
time, so there does remain a low end potential for isolated severe
storms prior to 10 pm.

Somewhat cooler air arrives overnight and sends overnight lows
down to the lower and middle 60s inland, upper 60s on the barrier
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will start off with a
sharp digging trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians. This trough will continue to dive
southeastward through the day, pushing off the southeast coast by
the evening. Then overnight, a closed upper low will sit just the
north over the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure
will be building in across the central CONUS as a weak surface low
pulls away and off the North Carolina coast. The arrival of the
vigorous trough will bring a limited shot of moisture between 3-7
K ft. Models continue to attempt to wring out a few showers
across mainly southeast South Carolina in the afternoon, but the
thinking is that the low levels will be too dry for showers to
develop. Instead a scattered to occasionally broken field of
cumulus and altocumulus will be expected. As such, the dry
forecast has been maintained. highs will run in the low 80s in
most areas with lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland of
the coast.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low positioned near the mid-
Atlantic will pull away to the northeast and ridging will begin to
build in as heights rise. High pressure at the surface will
gradually build into the region and model time heights show
plentiful dry air through the column. The forecast is dry and
temperatures are progged to warm steadily, with highs back into the
mid 80s (near normal) by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z TAFs: Mainly VFR should prevail through 18Z Sunday. Isolated
to scattered SHRA/TSRA could briefly impact the terminals late
this afternoon and this evening, ahead of an approaching cold
front. Additionally, convection could develop along the sea
breeze this afternoon. Given the uncertainties with both of these
features, we opted to go with VCSH from 22z-08z. The TAFs may need
to be amended and brief flight restrictions added as radar trends
develop over the next few hours. Also, winds will become a little
gusty this afternoon in a deep westerly flow behind low pressure
off the mid-Atlantic coast.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Low pressure will pull northeast off the NC coast, leaving
behind a broad and mostly cyclonic westerly flow across the
maritime community. This will hold back the resultant sea breeze
from forming until early-mid afternoon over the SC waters and not
until mid or late afternoon over the GA nearshore waters.
Charleston Harbor and the waters off the Charleston County coast
will achieve the highest winds as they back around to the SW and
reach at least 15-17 kt. There will however be small upticks in
winds in the Charleston Harbor due to deeper mixing during the
peak heating. The rest of the waters will experience winds under
15 kt with a little less of a pressure gradient. Seas will be
limited due to the offshore fetch, but with some swell energy and
eventually some southwest flow, the significant wave heights will
be 2 or 3 ft.

Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pulls a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. A band or line of showers/t-storms will
arrive in advance of the front, perhaps causing a few storms that
are strong or severe. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around
the the west-northwest behind the cold front. Winds and seas
outside of convection will be below any advisory thresholds.

Sunday through Thursday: In the wake of a departing cold front,
winds will be solidly offshore on Sunday as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest. Speeds are expected to top out at
15 knots during this time. Then as the high builds in for Monday
and Tuesday, the gradient will relax significantly resulting in
periods of somewhat erratic directions and light speeds. By
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday the high will slip offshore
and promote a more uniform southerly flow across the local waters.
Wind speeds will remain quite modest though, and are expected to
be 10 knots or less for the bulk of the time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211435
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1035 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the northeast this morning, then
gives way to a cold front that will cross the region late today.
Behind the front high pressure will gradually build in through
early next week. The high will then shift offshore by the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Morning update: Made several minor changes. POP/Weather: Removed
the slight chance of showers for the coastal waters this morning
because radar is clear. Plus, water vapor satellite imagery shows
an are of very dry air currently moving over the coastal waters,
which would help suppress shower development. Clouds: Visible
satellite shows clearing across the southern waters, so adjusted
the forecast to reflect this. Everything else appears to be on
track.

This afternoon: Low pressure hugging the NC Atlantic coast this
morning will continue to pull off to the northeast, as a well
defined short wave pivots through the lower Great lakes and Ohio
Valley.

An influx of considerable dry air in the mid/upper reaches of the
troposphere as shown on water vapor imagery will overspread the
area within a deep westerly flow. This will allow for a scouring
out of clouds for a time, but spokes of vorticity rotating around
the low aloft in the Ohio Valley and sufficient moisture stuck
beneath 700 mb will cause a decent cumulus field to form this
afternoon. The downslope trajectories from off the Appalachians
and 850 mb temps that climb to 15-16C will allow temps to climb to
the middle 80s. But the resultant sea breeze that forms in the
afternoon will hold max temps over the upper SC coast to the upper
70s and lower 80s.

That sea breeze will be a focus for convection this afternoon,
along with a cold front that approaches from the NW. While the
better forcing stays to the north, these warm temps will generate
SBCAPEs in excess of 1,000 or 1,500 J/kg and LI`s as low as -5 or
-6C. This should allow for at least isolated showers/t-storms to
develop around 2 or 3 pm along and near the sea breeze in addition
to differential heating boundaries in advance of the cold front
(caused by areas of clouds and ares of sun this morning). The
drier air and flow off the mountains will work against the
development of convection, but at the same time it will steepen
lapse rates. This could lead to a risk for isolated severe storms
with DCAPEs greater than 1,000 J/kg and the potential for
damaging winds late in the day. Nothing organized, but still a low
end chance after 3 or 4 pm.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. Trailing from the
low a cold front will sweep through around 11 pm-2 am, preceded
by a pre-frontal trough that could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/t-storms. Some of the High-Res models are hinting at the
possibility of squall line developing as there is an interaction
of the remnants of the sea breeze with the approaching front. With
30-35 kt of Bulk Shear in the 0-6 km layer this is certainly
possible. DCAPEs are still greater than 1,000 J/kg during this
time, so there does remain a low end potential for isolated severe
storms prior to 10 pm.

Somewhat cooler air arrives overnight and sends overnight lows
down to the lower and middle 60s inland, upper 60s on the barrier
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will start off with a
sharp digging trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians. This trough will continue to dive
southeastward through the day, pushing off the southeast coast by
the evening. Then overnight, a closed upper low will sit just the
north over the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure
will be building in across the central CONUS as a weak surface low
pulls away and off the North Carolina coast. The arrival of the
vigorous trough will bring a limited shot of moisture between 3-7
K ft. Models continue to attempt to wring out a few showers
across mainly southeast South Carolina in the afternoon, but the
thinking is that the low levels will be too dry for showers to
develop. Instead a scattered to occasionally broken field of
cumulus and altocumulus will be expected. As such, the dry
forecast has been maintained. highs will run in the low 80s in
most areas with lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland of
the coast.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low positioned near the mid-
Atlantic will pull away to the northeast and ridging will begin to
build in as heights rise. High pressure at the surface will
gradually build into the region and model time heights show
plentiful dry air through the column. The forecast is dry and
temperatures are progged to warm steadily, with highs back into the
mid 80s (near normal) by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: Satellite images and near surface observations indicate
that the MVFR ceilings may still impact the terminal this
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
valid 12z TAF cycle, with the possible exception late today and
early tonight as isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA move through in
advance of a cold front. If the sea breeze boundary is still
evident when storms are ongoing the risk would increase, but for
now we have no worse than VCSH from 23z-06z. Winds will become a
little gusty this afternoon in a deep westerly flow behind low
pressure off the mid-Atlantic coast.

KSAV: VFR will prevail through 12z Sunday, although there does
remain a low end potential for isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA late
today and early tonight ahead of a cold front. Since probabilities
are so low we have no more than VCSH from 23z-05z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Low pressure will pull northeast off the NC coast, leaving
behind a broad and mostly cyclonic westerly flow across the
maritime community. This will hold back the resultant sea breeze
from forming until early-mid afternoon over the SC waters and not
until mid or late afternoon over the GA nearshore waters.
Charleston Harbor and the waters off the Charleston County coast
will achieve the highest winds as they back around to the SW and
reach at least 15-17 kt. There will however be small upticks in
winds in the Charleston Harbor due to deeper mixing during the
peak heating. The rest of the waters will experience winds under
15 kt with a little less of a pressure gradient. Seas will be
limited due to the offshore fetch, but with some swell energy and
eventually some southwest flow, the significant wave heights will
be 2 or 3 ft.

Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pulls a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. A band or line of showers/t-storms will
arrive in advance of the front, perhaps causing a few storms that
are strong or severe. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around
the the west-northwest behind the cold front. Winds and seas
outside of convection will be below any advisory thresholds.

Sunday through Thursday: In the wake of a departing cold front,
winds will be solidly offshore on Sunday as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest. Speeds are expected to top out at
15 knots during this time. Then as the high builds in for Monday
and Tuesday, the gradient will relax significantly resulting in
periods of somewhat erratic directions and light speeds. By
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday the high will slip offshore
and promote a more uniform southerly flow across the local waters.
Wind speeds will remain quite modest though, and are expected to
be 10 knots or less for the bulk of the time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211134
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
734 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the northeast this morning, then
gives way to a cold front that will cross the region late today.
Behind the front high pressure will gradually build in through
early next week. The high will then shift offshore by the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Low pressure hugging the NC Atlantic coast this morning will
continue to pull off to the northeast, as a well defined short wave
pivots through the lower Great lakes and Ohio Valley.

A few lingering showers over Charleston and Berkeley County early
on will pull away and an influx of considerable dry air in the
mid/upper reaches of the troposphere as shown on water vapor
imagery will overspread the area within a deep westerly flow. This
will allow for a scouring out of clouds for a time, but spokes of
vorticity rotating around the low aloft in the Ohio Valley and
sufficient moisture stuck beneath 700 mb will cause a decent
cumulus field to form this afternoon. The downslope trajectories
from off the Appalachians and 850 mb temps that climb to 15-16C
will allow temps to climb to the middle 80s. But the resultant sea
breeze that forms in the afternoon will hold max temps over the
upper SC coast to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

That sea breeze will be a focus for convection this afternoon,
along with a cold front that approaches from the NW. While the
better forcing stays to the north, these warm temps will generate
SBCAPEs in excess of 1000 or 1500 J/kg and LI`s as low as -5 or
-6C. This should allow for at least isolated showers/t-storms to
develop around 2 or 3 pm on and near the sea breeze and from
differential heating boundaries in advance of the cold front
caused by cloudiness this morning. The drier air and flow off the
mountains will work against the development of convection, but at
the same time it will steepen lapse rates. This could lead to a
risk for isolated severe storms with DCAPEs greater than 1000 J/kg
and the potential for damaging winds late in the day. Nothing
organized, but still a low end chance after 3 or 4 pm.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. Trailing from the
low a cold front will sweep through around 03-06z, preceded by a
pre-frontal trough that could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/t-storms. Some of the High-Res models are hinting at the
possibility of squall line developing as there is an interaction
of the remnants of the sea breeze with the approaching front.
With 30-35 kt of Bulk Shear in the 0-6 km layer this is certainly
possible. DCAPEs are still greater than 1000 j/kg during this
time, so there does remain a low end potential for isolated
severe storms prior to 10 pm.

Somewhat cooler air arrives overnight and sends overnight lows
down to the lower and middle 60s inland, upper 60s on the barrier
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will start off with a
sharp digging trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians. This trough will continue to dive
southeastward through the day, pushing off the southeast coast by
the evening. Then overnight, a closed upper low will sit just the
north over the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure
will be building in across the central CONUS as a weak surface low
pulls away and off the North Carolina coast. The arrival of the
vigorous trough will bring a limited shot of moisture between 3-7
K ft. Models continue to attempt to wring out a few showers
across mainly southeast South Carolina in the afternoon, but the
thinking is that the low levels will be too dry for showers to
develop. Instead a scattered to occasionally broken field of
cumulus and altocumulus will be expected. As such, the dry
forecast has been maintained. highs will run in the low 80s in
most areas with lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland of
the coast.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low positioned near the mid-
Atlantic will pull away to the northeast and ridging will begin to
build in as heights rise. High pressure at the surface will
gradually build into the region and model time heights show
plentiful dry air through the column. The forecast is dry and
temperatures are progged to warm steadily, with highs back into the
mid 80s (near normal) by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: Satellite images and near surface observations indicate
that the MVFR/IFR ceilings may still impact the terminal this
morning. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail through much of the
valid 12z TAF cycle, with the possible exception late today and
early tonight as isolated to scattered shra/tsra move through in
advance of a cold front. If the sea breeze boundary is still
evident when storms are ongoing the risk would increase, but for
now we have no worse than VCSH from 23z-06z. Winds will become a
little gusty this afternoon in a deep westerly flow behind low
pressure off the mid- Atlantic coast.

KSAV: VFR conditions will prevail through 12z Sunday, although
there does remain a low end potential for isolated to scattered
shra/tsra late today and early tonight ahead of a cold front.
Since probabilities are so low we have no more than VCSH from
23z-05z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Low pressure will pull northeast off the NC coast, leaving
behind a broad and mostly cyclonic westerly flow across the
maritime community. This will hold back the resultant sea breeze
from forming until early-mid afternoon over the SC waters and not
until mid or late afternoon over the GA nearshore waters.
Charleston Harbor and the waters off the Charleston County coast
will achieve the highest winds as they back around to the SW and
reach at least 15-17 kt. There will however be small upticks in
winds in the Charleston Harbor due to deeper mixing during the
peak heating. The rest of the waters will experience winds under
15 kt with a little less of a pressure gradient. Seas will be
limited due to the offshore fetch, but with some swell energy and
eventually some southwest flow, the significant wave heights will
be 2 or 3 ft.

Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pulls a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. A band or line of showers/t-storms will
arrive in advance of the front, perhaps causing a few storms that
are strong or severe. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around
the the west-northwest behind the cold front. Winds and seas
outside of convection will be below any advisory thresholds.

Sunday through Thursday: In the wake of a departing cold front,
winds will be solidly offshore on Sunday as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest. Speeds are expected to top out at
15 knots during this time. Then as the high builds in for Monday
and Tuesday, the gradient will relax significantly resulting in
periods of somewhat erratic directions and light speeds. By
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday the high will slip offshore
and promote a more uniform southerly flow across the local waters.
Wind speeds will remain quite modest though, and are expected to
be 10 knots or less for the bulk of the time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 211050
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
650 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the northeast this morning, then
gives way to a cold front that will cross the region late today.
Behind the front high pressure will gradually build in through
early next week. The high will then shift offshore by the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Low pressure hugging the NC Atlantic coast this morning will
continue to pull off to the northeast, as a well defined short wave
pivots through the lower Great lakes and Ohio Valley.

A few lingering showers over Charleston and Berkeley County early
on will pull away and an influx of considerable dry air in the
mid/upper reaches of the troposphere as shown on water vapor
imagery will overspread the area within a deep westerly flow. This
will allow for a scouring out of clouds for a time, but spokes of
vorticity rotating around the low aloft in the Ohio Valley and
sufficient moisture stuck beneath 700 mb will cause a decent
cumulus field to form this afternoon. The downslope trajectories
from off the Appalachians and 850 mb temps that climb to 15-16C
will allow temps to climb to the middle 80s. But the resultant sea
breeze that forms in the afternoon will hold max temps over the
upper SC coast to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

That sea breeze will be a focus for convection this afternoon,
along with a cold front that approaches from the NW. While the
better forcing stays to the north, these warm temps will generate
SBCAPEs in excess of 1000 or 1500 J/kg and LI`s as low as -5 or
-6C. This should allow for at least isolated showers/t-storms to
develop around 2 or 3 pm on and near the sea breeze and from
differential heating boundaries in advance of the cold front
caused by cloudiness this morning. The drier air and flow off the
mountains will work against the development of convection, but at
the same time it will steepen lapse rates. This could lead to a
risk for isolated severe storms with DCAPEs greater than 1000 J/kg
and the potential for damaging winds late in the day. Nothing
organized, but still a low end chance after 3 or 4 pm.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. Trailing from the
low a cold front will sweep through around 03-06z, preceded by a
pre-frontal trough that could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/t-storms. Some of the High-Res models are hinting at the
possibility of squall line developing as there is an interaction
of the remnants of the sea breeze with the approaching front.
With 30-35 kt of Bulk Shear in the 0-6 km layer this is certainly
possible. DCAPEs are still greater than 1000 j/kg during this
time, so there does remain a low end potential for isolated
severe storms prior to 10 pm.

Somewhat cooler air arrives overnight and sends overnight lows
down to the lower and middle 60s inland, upper 60s on the barrier
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will start off with a
sharp digging trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians. This trough will continue to dive
southeastward through the day, pushing off the southeast coast by
the evening. Then overnight, a closed upper low will sit just the
north over the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure
will be building in across the central CONUS as a weak surface low
pulls away and off the North Carolina coast. The arrival of the
vigorous trough will bring a limited shot of moisture between 3-7
K ft. Models continue to attempt to wring out a few showers
across mainly southeast South Carolina in the afternoon, but the
thinking is that the low levels will be too dry for showers to
develop. Instead a scattered to occasionally broken field of
cumulus and altocumulus will be expected. As such, the dry
forecast has been maintained. highs will run in the low 80s in
most areas with lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland of
the coast.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low positioned near the mid-
Atlantic will pull away to the northeast and ridging will begin to
build in as heights rise. High pressure at the surface will
gradually build into the region and model time heights show
plentiful dry air through the column. The forecast is dry and
temperatures are progged to warm steadily, with highs back into the
mid 80s (near normal) by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: The airfield will teeter between low end VFR ceilings and
MVFR ceilings through mid morning. Drier air will work in for the
balance of the day with VFR to prevail as west winds become a
little gusty in the afternoon. We included VCSH with a cold front
this evening based on model consensus.

KSAV: Borderline VFR/MVFR conditions to prevail this morning. Much
drier air with take over for the bulk of day with solid VFR weather
to prevail. We included VCSH with a cold front this evening based
on model consensus.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Low pressure will pull northeast off the NC coast, leaving
behind a broad and mostly cyclonic westerly flow across the
maritime community. This will hold back the resultant sea breeze
from forming until early-mid afternoon over the SC waters and not
until mid or late afternoon over the GA nearshore waters.
Charleston Harbor and the waters off the Charleston County coast
will achieve the highest winds as they back around to the SW and
reach at least 15-17 kt. There will however be small upticks in
winds in the Charleston Harbor due to deeper mixing during the
peak heating. The rest of the waters will experience winds under
15 kt with a little less of a pressure gradient. Seas will be
limited due to the offshore fetch, but with some swell energy and
eventually some southwest flow, the significant wave heights will
be 2 or 3 ft.

Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pulls a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. A band or line of showers/t-storms will
arrive in advance of the front, perhaps causing a few storms that
are strong or severe. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around
the the west-northwest behind the cold front. Winds and seas
outside of convection will be below any advisory thresholds.

Sunday through Thursday: In the wake of a departing cold front,
winds will be solidly offshore on Sunday as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest. Speeds are expected to top out at
15 knots during this time. Then as the high builds in for Monday
and Tuesday, the gradient will relax significantly resulting in
periods of somewhat erratic directions and light speeds. By
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday the high will slip offshore
and promote a more uniform southerly flow across the local waters.
Wind speeds will remain quite modest though, and are expected to
be 10 knots or less for the bulk of the time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210824
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
424 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the northeast this morning, then
gives way to a cold front that will cross the region late today.
Behind the front high pressure will gradually build in through
early next week. The high will then shift offshore by the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning...The wedge front will continue to lift north
and away from the area as a wave of low pressure just outside the
Santee River moves north/northeast and away from the region. A
continued fetch of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
persist as it feeds into a mid and upper cyclone in the Ohio
Valley. This will allow for a slight chance/chance of showers
prior to daybreak. Low stratus over and near the CWFA will allow
for at least patchy fog through 8 or 9 am.

Today: Lingering showers over the Charleston Quad-County area
early on will pull away and an influx of considerable dry air in
the mid/upper reaches of the troposphere as shown on water vapor
imagery will overspread the area within a deep westerly flow. This
will allow for a scouring out of clouds for a time, but spokes of
vorticity rotating around the low aloft in the Ohio Valley and
sufficient low level moisture will cause a decent cumulus field to
form this afternoon. The downslope trajectories from off the
Appalachians and 850 mb temps that climb to 15-16C will allow for
temps to climb to the middle 80s. The resultant sea breeze that
forms in the afternoon will hold max temps over the upper SC
coast to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

That sea breeze will be a focus for convection this afternoon,
along with the approach of a cold front that approaches from the
NW. while the better forcing stays to the north, these warm temps
will generate SBCAPEs in excess of 1000 or 1500 J/kg and LI`s as
low as -5 or -6C. This should allow for at least isolated
showers/t-storms to develop around 2 or 3 pm. The drier air and
flow off the mountains will work against the development of
convection, but at the same time it will steepen lapse rates.
This could lead to a risk for isolated severe storms with DCAPEs
greater than 1000 J/kg and the potential for damaging winds.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. Trailing from the
low a cold front will sweep through around 03-06z, preceded by a
pre-frontal trough that could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/t-storms. Some of the High-Res models are hinting at the
possibility of squall line developing as there is an interaction
of the sea breeze with the approaching front. With 30-35 kt of
Bulk Shear in the 0-6 km layer this is certainly possible. A with
DCAPEs that are still greater than 1000 j/kg as this occurs, so
there does remain a low end potential for isolated severe storms.

Somewhat cooler air arrives overnight and sends overnight lows
down to the lower and middle 60s inland, upper 60s on the barrier
islands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will start off with a
sharp digging trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians. This trough will continue to dive
southeastward through the day, pushing off the southeast coast by
the evening. Then overnight, a closed upper low will sit just the
north over the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure
will be building in across the central CONUS as a weak surface low
pulls away and off the North Carolina coast. The arrival of the
vigorous trough will bring a limited shot of moisture between 3-7
K ft. Models continue to attempt to wring out a few showers
across mainly southeast South Carolina in the afternoon, but the
thinking is that the low levels will be too dry for showers to
develop. Instead a scattered to occasionally broken field of
cumulus and altocumulus will be expected. As such, the dry
forecast has been maintained. highs will run in the low 80s in
most areas with lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland of
the coast.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low positioned near the mid-
Atlantic will pull away to the northeast and ridging will begin to
build in as heights rise. High pressure at the surface will
gradually build into the region and model time heights show
plentiful dry air through the column. The forecast is dry and
temperatures are progged to warm steadily, with highs back into the
mid 80s (near normal) by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: As light rains move through early this morning it will
result in IFR/LIFR conditions through around 10z. The airfield
will then teeter between low end VFR ceilings and MVFR ceilings
through mid morning. Drier air will work in for the balance of the
day with VFR to prevail as west winds become a little gusty in the
afternoon. We included VCSH with a cold front this evening based
on model consensus.

KSAV: Borderline VFR/MVFR conditions to prevail into Saturday
morning. Much drier air with take over for the bulk of saturday
with solid VFR weather to prevail. We included VCSH with a cold
front this evening based on model consensus.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Early this morning: Some temporary reduction in visibilities will
impact Charleston harbor and the SC nearshore waters in
association with low stratus, fog and light rains. Visibility
will be as low as 3/4 or 1 nm at times.

Today: Low pressure will pull away from the area early this
morning, leaving behind a broad and mostly cyclonic westerly flow
across the maritime community. This will hold back the resultant sea
breeze from forming until early-mid afternoon over the SC waters
and not until mid or late afternoon over the GA nearshore waters.
Charleston Harbor and the waters off the Charleston County coast
will achieve the highest winds as they back around to the SW and
reach at least 15-17 kt. There will however be small upticks in
winds in the Charleston Harbor due to deeper mixing during the
peak heating. The rest of the waters will experience winds under
15 kt with a little less of a pressure gradient. Seas will be
limited due to the offshore fetch, but with some swell energy and
eventually some southwest flow, the significant wave heights will
be 2 or 3 ft.

Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pulls a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. A band or line of showers/t-storms will
arrive in advance of the front, perhaps causing a few storms that
are strong or severe. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around
the the west-northwest behind the cold front. Winds and seas
outside of convection will be below any advisory thresholds.

Sunday through Thursday: In the wake of a departing cold front,
winds will be solidly offshore on Sunday as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest. Speeds are expected to top out at
15 knots during this time. Then as the high builds in for Monday
and Tuesday, the gradient will relax significantly resulting in
periods of somewhat erratic directions and light speeds. By
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday the high will slip offshore
and promote a more uniform southerly flow across the local waters.
Wind speeds will remain quite modest though, and are expected to
be 10 knots or less for the bulk of the time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





000
FXUS62 KCHS 210808
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
408 AM EDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pull away to the northeast this morning, then
gives way to a cold front that will cross the region late today.
Behind the front high pressure will gradually build in through
early next week. The high will then shift offshore by the middle
of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Early this morning...The wedge front will continue to lift north
and away from the area as a wave of low pressure just outside the
Santee River moves north/northeast and away from the region. A
continued fetch of deep moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will
persist as it feeds into a mid and upper cyclone in the Ohio
Valley. This will allow for a slight chance/chance of showers
prior to daybreak. Low stratus over and near the CWFA will allow
for at least patchy fog, mainly inland through 8 or 9 am.

Today: Lingering showers over the Charleston Quad-County area
early on will pull away and an influx of considerable dry air in
the mid/upper reaches of the troposphere as shown on water vapor
imagery will overspread the area within a deep westerly flow. This
will allow for a scouring out of clouds for a time, but spokes of
vorticity rotating around the low aloft in the Ohio Valley and
sufficient low level moisture will cause a decent cumulus field to
form this afternoon. The downslope trajectories from off the
Appalachians and 850 mb temps that climb to 15-16C will allow for
temps to climb to the middle 80s. The resultant sea breeze that
forms in the afternoon will hold max temps over the upper SC
coast to the upper 70s and lower 80s.

That sea breeze will be a focus for convection this afternoon,
along with the approach of a cold front that approaches from the
NW. while the better forcing stays to the north, these warm temps
will generate SBCAPEs in excess of 1000 or 1500 J/kg and LI`s as
low as -5 or -6C. This should allow for at least isolated
showers/t-storms to develop around 2 or 3 pm. The drier air and
flow off the mountains will work against the development of
convection, but at the same time it will steepen lapse rates.
This could lead to a risk for isolated severe storms with DCAPEs
greater than 1000 J/kg and the potential for damaging winds.

Tonight: A broad mid/upper trough will establish itself over the
eastern states, causing low pressure to deepen off the Delmarva as
it moves to the south/southeast of Long Island. Trailing from the
low a cold front will sweep through around 03-06z, preceded by a
pre-frontal trough that could allow for isolated to scattered
showers/t-storms. Some of the High-Res models are hinting at the
possibility of squall line developing as there is an interaction
of the sea breeze with the approaching front. With 30-35 kt of
Bulk Shear in the 0-6 km layer this is certainly possible. A with
DCAPEs that are still greater than 1000 j/kg as this occurs, so
there does remain a low end potential for isolated severe storms.

Somewhat cooler air arrives overnight and sends overnight lows
down to the lower and middle 60s inland, upper 60s on the barrier
islands.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night: The pattern aloft will start off with a
sharp digging trough situated across the Tennessee Valley and the
southern Appalachians. This trough will continue to dive
southeastward through the day, pushing off the southeast coast by
the evening. Then overnight, a closed upper low will sit just the
north over the mid-Atlantic region. At the surface, high pressure
will be building in across the central CONUS as a weak surface low
pulls away and off the North Carolina coast. The arrival of the
vigorous trough will bring a limited shot of moisture between 3-7
K ft. Models continue to attempt to wring out a few showers
across mainly southeast South Carolina in the afternoon, but the
thinking is that the low levels will be too dry for showers to
develop. Instead a scattered to occasionally broken field of
cumulus and altocumulus will be expected. As such, the dry
forecast has been maintained. highs will run in the low 80s in
most areas with lows dipping into the mid to upper 50s inland of
the coast.

Monday through Tuesday: The upper low positioned near the mid-
Atlantic will pull away to the northeast and ridging will begin to
build in as heights rise. High pressure at the surface will
gradually build into the region and model time heights show
plentiful dry air through the column. The forecast is dry and
temperatures are progged to warm steadily, with highs back into the
mid 80s (near normal) by Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
No significant changes were needed to the long term forecast period.
Aloft, an expansive ridge will build across the eastern CONUS
through late week while high pressure at the surface slides off the
coast and into the sub-tropical Atlantic. A prominent subsidence
inversion noted in model soundings is expected to keep the forecast
dry through the period. Meanwhile, as heights build aloft,
temperatures through late week will run above normal. Highs in the
upper 80s will be routine, with a few days up around 90 quite
possible.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: The airfield will teeter between low end VFR ceilings and
MVFR ceilings through mid morning. Drier air will work in for the
balance of the day with VFR to prevail as west winds become a
little gusty in the afternoon. We included VCSH with a cold front
this evening based on model consensus.

KSAV: Borderline VFR/MVFR conditions to prevail into Saturday
morning. Much drier air with take over for the bulk of saturday
with solid VFR weather to prevail. We included VCSH with a cold
front this evening based on model consensus.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Today: Low pressure will pull away from the area early this
morning, leaving behind a broad and mostly cyclonic westerly flow
across the maritime community. This will hold back the resultant sea
breeze from forming until early-mid afternoon over the SC waters
and not until mid or late afternoon over the GA nearshore waters.
Charleston Harbor and the waters off the Charleston County coast
will achieve the highest winds as they back around to the SW and
reach at least 15-17 kt. There will however be small upticks in
winds in the Charleston Harbor due to deeper mixing during the
peak heating. The rest of the waters will experience winds under
15 kt with a little less of a pressure gradient. Seas will be
limited due to the offshore fetch, but with some swell energy and
eventually some southwest flow, the significant wave heights will
be 2 or 3 ft.

Tonight: Low pressure will deepen further off the Delmarva and
south of Long Island and pulls a trailing cold front into the
waters after midnight. A band or line of showers/t-storms will
arrive in advance of the front, perhaps causing a few storms that
are strong or severe. Otherwise, southwest winds will veer around
the the west-northwest behind the cold front. Winds and seas
outside of convection will be below any advisory thresholds.

Sunday through Thursday: In the wake of a departing cold front,
winds will be solidly offshore on Sunday as high pressure begins
to build in from the northwest. Speeds are expected to top out at
15 knots during this time. Then as the high builds in for Monday
and Tuesday, the gradient will relax significantly resulting in
periods of somewhat erratic directions and light speeds. By
Tuesday night and especially Wednesday the high will slip offshore
and promote a more uniform southerly flow across the local waters.
Wind speeds will remain quite modest though, and are expected to
be 10 knots or less for the bulk of the time.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...





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