Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS62 KCHS 301148
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
748 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING OFF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST AND
THROUGH NORTH COASTAL GEORGIA THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS ENDED...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER ALONG PART OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH MID-
MORNING. THE 850-700 MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES TODAY WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
STICKING AROUND ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD. ENOUGH UPLIFT WILL BE
PRESENT OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO
DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THOUGH WITH THE
PERSISTING UPPER TROUGH WE EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND...MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE ELSEWHERE THE
GREATER SKY COVER AND SLIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BUT IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT RAPIDLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAUSE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NEWLY FORMING SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING LATE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY.

SATURDAY...A 535 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW AND VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C...WHICH IS 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL! NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A
VERY COLD DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM AT KCHS...BUT SEE BELOW FOR OTHER RECORD INFORMATION. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 35 MPH AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THE CORE
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN
TO PULL AWAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS
COUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCURRING ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST GIVEN THE ADVECTIVE REGIME.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

LAKE WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF WARM LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN WAKE OF A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ON LAKE MOULTRIE FOR MARINERS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR OR LOWER CEILINGS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE...BUT OVERALL
PROBABILITIES ARE TOO LOW TO MENTION IN THE TAF/S. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...BUT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER
FAIRLY WARM ATLANTIC WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300908
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
508 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDING OVER THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. A MUCH STRONGER COLD
FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE WEST OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL
SETTLE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE INTO THE ATLANTIC DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS ANOTHER
COLD FRONT APPROACHES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE COLD FRONT IS SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA EARLY
THIS MORNING. THE BRUNT OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED ACROSS
FAR NORTHERN BERKELEY COUNTY AND INTO THE PEE DEE REGION. ALTHOUGH
THE BEST FORCING AND UPPER JET DIVERGENCE WILL REMAIN ACROSS FAR
EASTERN AREAS THROUGH DAYBREAK...WE CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AS FAR SOUTH AS THE SAVANNAH RIVER AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE
850-700 MB TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY
WITH EXTENSIVE MOISTURE AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS STICKING
AROUND ACROSS OUR EASTERN THIRD. ENOUGH UPLIFT WILL BE PRESENT
OVER OUR COASTAL WATERS FOR SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP
DURING THE DAY. COOLER...DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY FILTER INTO THE
AREA WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 70S.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN TONIGHT THOUGH WITH THE
PERSISTING UPPER TROUGH WE EXPECT ENOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
SUPPORT SCATTERED CUMULUS OR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE WATERS AND
PORTIONS OF COASTAL AREAS. FARTHER INLAND...MODEST RADIATIONAL
COOLING WILL ALLOW FOR LOWS IN THE MIDDLE 40S WHILE ELSEWHERE THE
GREATER SKY COVER AND SLIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING WILL KEEP TEMPS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY...A POTENT SHORT WAVE WILL DIVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION
AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...RESULTING IN THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MID
AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AT THE
SURFACE...THE DEEPENING TROUGH WILL ALLOW FOR CYCLOGENESIS TO OCCUR
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WITH THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW LIFTING
NORTHEAST ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THROUGH THE DAY. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL RESULT IN RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS BUT IT
WILL BE UNSEASONABLY COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND 70 OR IN THE LOWER 70S
DESPITE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

FRIDAY NIGHT...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF AS IT RAPIDLY DROPS
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. WHILE
THE INITIAL SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...ANOTHER SURFACE LOW WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND CAUSE A POWERFUL COLD FRONT TO
SWEEP THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THERE APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THE NEWLY FORMING SURFACE LOW TO ALLOW ISOLATED
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MAINLY THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA
OVERNIGHT IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER LOW. GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE
OF THE DEVELOPING COLD POOL ALOFT...THERE IS CERTAINLY THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GRAUPEL TO OCCUR BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE MENTION IN THE
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.  COLD AIR ADVECTION AND DEEPER MIXING WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH TEMPERATURES QUICKLY FALLING LATE
INTO THE LOWER AND MID 40S WITH WINDS BECOMING GUSTY.

SATURDAY...A 535 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL SWING ACROSS
NORTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA IN THE MORNING...BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS HIGHLY ANOMALOUS LOW AND VERY STRONG COLD
AIR ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF -5C...WHICH IS 4
STANDARD DEVIATIONS BELOW NORMAL! NEEDLESS TO SAY...IT WILL BE A
VERY COLD DAY FOR EARLY NOVEMBER WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH INTO
THE MID AND UPPER 50S. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A RECORD LOW
MAXIMUM AT KCHS...BUT SEE BELOW FOR OTHER RECORD INFORMATION. WINDY
CONDITIONS WILL ALSO OCCUR...WITH VERY STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 30
TO 40 KT DEVELOPING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LOW.
DEEP MIXING PROFILES WILL TAP INTO THE STRONGER WINDS
ALOFT...PRODUCING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 35 MPH AT TIMES. THERE COULD BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE WRAPPING
AROUND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TO
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE
POTENTIAL FOR GRAUPEL TO OCCUR WILL CONTINUE AS WELL WITH THE CORE
OF THE COLD POOL ALOFT SHIFTING OVER THE AREA. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WILL DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS BEGIN
TO PULL AWAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TIGHT OVER THE REGION BETWEEN LOW PRESSURE BOMBING OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THIS COMBINED WITH CONTINUED COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP WINDS
COUPLED THROUGH THE NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 30S FOR LOWS...WITH COOL TEMPERATURES LIKELY OCCURRING ALL THE
WAY TO THE COAST GIVEN THE ADVECTIVE REGIME.

SUNDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD INTO THE REGION
FROM THE WEST RESULTING IN MAINLY SUNNY SKIES. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS ONLY
MODERATING INTO THE UPPER 50S OR LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

LAKE WINDS...THE COMBINATION OF WARM LAKE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT IN WAKE OF A POWERFUL COLD
FRONT FRIDAY NIGHT WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS
ON LAKE MOULTRIE FOR MARINERS. STRONG WINDS AND ROUGH WAVES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND A LAKE WIND ADVISORY WILL
CERTAINLY BE NEEDED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC
PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE...A STRONG RIDGE WILL SHIFT EASTWARD AND EXPAND OVER
THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC AS A
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST DURING THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEAST COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFT INTO THE ATLANTIC BY
MID-WEEK...WITH A COASTAL TROUGH POSSIBLY DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY
BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS EARLY IN THE
WEEK...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS WEDNESDAY WITH THE COASTAL
TROUGH/ONSHORE FLOW AND THURSDAY WITH THE COLD FRONT. PATCHY FROST
COULD OCCUR INLAND FROM THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME FREEZING
TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE IN WELL SHELTERED LOCATIONS AS WELL.
THEN...TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD RETURNING TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND. THE
BETTER FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SC SO WE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT KCHS THROUGH 09Z. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE MARION...THOUGH THIS SHOULD SKIRT WELL
NORTH OF EITHER TERMINAL.

ONCE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL SUPPORT MVFR
STRATUS AT BOTH SITES. AFTER DAYBREAK THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
LIFTING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH THIS MORNING AS THE COLD FRONT SHIFTS
OFFSHORE AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD IN. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE
AROUND 10 KT TODAY...BUT INCREASING TO 10-15 KT TONIGHT WITH AN
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT COMBINED WITH COLD ADVECTION OVER
FAIRLY WARM ATLANTIC WATERS.

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...THEN A POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP OFFSHORE LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...VERY
STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION ALOFT AND POTENT LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS
WILL RESULT IN POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS CONDITIONS FOR MARINERS LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300553
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
153 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES...AS EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES RIDE THROUGH THE EAST
AND SE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN THE
UPSTATE OF SC THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN W GA TO APPROACH
EARLY TONIGHT AND TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND ADEQUATE FORCING FROM NOT ONLY THE SHORT
WAVE FEATURES BUT ALSO SOME ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET NEARBY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND NW PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE BARRIER ISLANDS VERY LATE. WE/RE DEFINITELY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GIVEN A FAIRLY UNIFORM WEST/SW FLOW. BUT WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP SCHEME...DELAYING THE ACTIVITY FROM
REACHING OUR NW TIER UNTIL AROUND 11 PM-12 AM...THEN MAKING STEADY
HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS EXTRAPOLATES TO AN
ARRIVAL TIME OF AROUND 2-3 AM IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
SAVANNAH REGIMES. SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL OCCUR...WITH 40-50
PERCENT AREA WIDE.

A FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT TO THE SHOWERS WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN
UNDER 1/10 OR 2/10 INCHES. CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE THUNDER OR
LIGHTNING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...NOT DROPPING ANY
LOWER THAN ABOUT 65-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN STARTING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE FALL LATER TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. THIS
EQUATES TO LOWS FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE NW ZONES TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FRONT
DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH MID MORNING. NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO THE REGION WITHIN A COLD CONVECTION REGIME...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO JUST HALF AN INCH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION MITIGATED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. NIGHTTIME
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL BELOW AVERAGE...REACHING MID TO
UPPER 40S WITHIN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WASHED OUT BY
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED BETWEEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT DESCENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
DIVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COASTLINE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SOLID WEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
FEATURE WILL LACK ACCESS TO DEEP MOISTURE...AND THUS BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...PREFERRING JUST TO
INDICATE INCREASING SKY COVER. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PEAKING IN THE
LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED SATURDAY MORNING...AS A POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM
SWINGS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY
ENERGY TO INTENSIFY THE NEARLY CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CANADIAN AIR MASS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE 50S...NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. HAVE ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT APPROACHING THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR NOVEMBER 1ST. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING RECORDS. IN ADDITION
TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...WEST FLOW WILL BE QUITE WINDY
CONSIDERING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH BRISK COLD ADVECTION AND A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS PRESENTLY ADVANCING THROUGH THE AREA BUT THE
ASSOCIATED SHOWERS HAVE BEEN SHOWING A DIMINISHING TREND. THE
BETTER FORCING AND JET DIVERGENCE WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHERN SC SO WE
MAINTAINED VCSH AT KCHS THROUGH 09Z. AN ISOLATED TSTM HAS
DEVELOPED NORTH OF LAKE MARION...THOUGH THIS SHOULD SKIRT WELL
NORTH OF EITHER TERMINAL.

ONCE WINDS SWING AROUND TO THE NORTH LATE TONIGHT...MOISTURE
TRAPPED BENEATH A STRENGTHENING INVERSION WILL SUPPORT MVFR
STRATUS AT BOTH SITES. AFTER DAYBREAK THE LOW CEILINGS WILL BE
LIFTING WITH MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE 06Z
TAF PERIOD.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PULL FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND
MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF
10 OR 15 KT EARLY WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO NW AND NORTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT EARLY...THEN AROUND 2 FT WITH SOME 3 FOOTERS
ARRIVING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE UP
TO 15 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 300206
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1006 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES...AS EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES RIDE THROUGH THE EAST
AND SE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN THE
UPSTATE OF SC THROUGH EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN W GA TO APPROACH
EARLY TONIGHT AND TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES
TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND ADEQUATE FORCING FROM NOT ONLY THE SHORT
WAVE FEATURES BUT ALSO SOME ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE UPPER JET NEARBY ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.
THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST AND NW PRIOR TO
MIDNIGHT AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BEFORE
FINALLY PUSHING OFF THE BARRIER ISLANDS VERY LATE. WE/RE DEFINITELY
CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
GIVEN A FAIRLY UNIFORM WEST/SW FLOW. BUT WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF
30-35 KT THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION OF SHOWERS AS THE
FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP SCHEME...DELAYING THE ACTIVITY FROM
REACHING OUR NW TIER UNTIL AROUND 11 PM-12 AM...THEN MAKING STEADY
HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS EXTRAPOLATES TO AN
ARRIVAL TIME OF AROUND 2-3 AM IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
SAVANNAH REGIMES. SCATTERED COVERAGE WILL OCCUR...WITH 40-50
PERCENT AREA WIDE.

A FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT TO THE SHOWERS WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN
UNDER 1/10 OR 2/10 INCHES. CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE THUNDER OR
LIGHTNING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...NOT DROPPING ANY
LOWER THAN ABOUT 65-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN STARTING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE FALL LATER TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. THIS
EQUATES TO LOWS FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE NW ZONES TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FRONT
DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH MID MORNING. NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO THE REGION WITHIN A COLD CONVECTION REGIME...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO JUST HALF AN INCH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION MITIGATED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. NIGHTTIME
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL BELOW AVERAGE...REACHING MID TO
UPPER 40S WITHIN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WASHED OUT BY
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED BETWEEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT DESCENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
DIVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COASTLINE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SOLID WEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
FEATURE WILL LACK ACCESS TO DEEP MOISTURE...AND THUS BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...PREFERRING JUST TO
INDICATE INCREASING SKY COVER. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PEAKING IN THE
LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED SATURDAY MORNING...AS A POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM
SWINGS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY
ENERGY TO INTENSIFY THE NEARLY CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CANADIAN AIR MASS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE 50S...NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. HAVE ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT APPROACHING THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR NOVEMBER 1ST. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING RECORDS. IN ADDITION
TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...WEST FLOW WILL BE QUITE WINDY
CONSIDERING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH BRISK COLD ADVECTION AND A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...BEFORE SUB-VFR WEATHER ARRIVES DUE TO SCATTERED TO
SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. PERIOD MVFR WEATHER MAY
OCCUR AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AROUND 06-09Z...WITH MVFR OR
LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE FRONT AS
MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A SHARP INVERSION. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THE REMAINDER OF
THE VALID TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE 00Z TAFS THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KCHS THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PULL FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW AND
MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH AND SW WINDS OF
10 OR 15 KT EARLY WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST AND NW AFTER
MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO NW AND NORTH AT SIMILAR SPEEDS LATE. SEAS
WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT EARLY...THEN AROUND 2 FT WITH SOME 3 FOOTERS
ARRIVING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WHILE WE CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE
THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION OVERNIGHT...THE BULK OF THE
RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AFTER 2 OR 3 AM.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE UP
TO 15 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 292338
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TONIGHT...THE MEAN MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
EASTERN STATES...AS EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES RIDE THROUGH THE EAST
AND SE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT LOCATED IN THE
UPSTATE OF SC THROUGH CENTRAL AND SW GA TO APPROACH LATE THIS
EVENING AND TO PROGRESS THROUGH THE FORECAST REGION OVERNIGHT.
THERE IS A DECENT SWATH OF MOISTURE WITH PWATS OF 1.1 TO 1.4
INCHES TO TRAVERSE THE REGION AND ADEQUATE FORCING FROM NOT ONLY
THE SHORT WAVE FEATURES BUT ALSO SOME ASCENT IN RESPONSE TO THE
RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET NEARBY ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC STATES. THIS WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
AND NW LATE THIS EVENING AND PROGRESSING EASTWARD AFTER
MIDNIGHT...PUSHING OFF THE BARRIER ISLANDS VERY LATE. WE/RE
DEFINITELY CONCERNED ABOUT THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE GIVEN A FAIRLY UNIFORM WEST/SW FLOW. BUT WITH 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR OF 30-35 KT THIS SHOULD SUPPORT SOME ORGANIZATION AS
THE FRONT DRAWS CLOSER.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP SCHEME...DELAYING THE ACTIVITY FROM
REACHING OUR NW TIER UNTIL AROUND 9-11 PM...THEN MAKING STEADY
HEADWAY TO THE EAST/SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS EXTRAPOLATES TO AN
ARRIVAL TIME OF AROUND 2-3 AM IN THE CHARLESTON...BEAUFORT AND
SAVANNAH REGIMES. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE WILL
OCCUR...GREATEST OVER THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY AREA.

A FAIRLY QUICK MOVEMENT TO THE SHOWERS WILL KEEP QPF AMOUNTS DOWN
UNDER 1/10 OR 2/10 INCHES. CAN/T RULE OUT A LITTLE THUNDER OR
LIGHTNING WITH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT
INCLUSION WITHIN THE LATEST FORECAST.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN MILD IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...NOT DROPPING ANY
LOWER THAN ABOUT 65-70 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN STARTING A MORE
AGGRESSIVE FALL LATER TONIGHT AS THE COOLER AIR MASS ARRIVES. THIS
EQUATES TO LOWS FROM THE MID 50S ALONG THE NW ZONES TO THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FRONT
DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH MID MORNING. NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO THE REGION WITHIN A COLD CONVECTION REGIME...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO JUST HALF AN INCH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION MITIGATED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. NIGHTTIME
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL BELOW AVERAGE...REACHING MID TO
UPPER 40S WITHIN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WASHED OUT BY
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED BETWEEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT DESCENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
DIVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COASTLINE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SOLID WEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
FEATURE WILL LACK ACCESS TO DEEP MOISTURE...AND THUS BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...PREFERRING JUST TO
INDICATE INCREASING SKY COVER. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PEAKING IN THE
LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED SATURDAY MORNING...AS A POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM
SWINGS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY
ENERGY TO INTENSIFY THE NEARLY CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CANADIAN AIR MASS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE 50S...NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. HAVE ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT APPROACHING THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR NOVEMBER 1ST. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING RECORDS. IN ADDITION
TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...WEST FLOW WILL BE QUITE WINDY
CONSIDERING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH BRISK COLD ADVECTION AND A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS AT BOTH KSAV AND KCHS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
TONIGHT...BEFORE SUB-VFR WEATHER ARRIVES DUE TO SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN ASSOCIATION WITH A COLD FRONT. PERIOD MVFR
WEATHER MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AROUND 06-09Z...WITH
MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS TO OCCUR FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE
FRONT AS MOISTURE BECOMES TRAPPED BENEATH A SHARP INVERSION. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE THE
REMAINDER OF THE VALID TAF CYCLE. ALTHOUGH NOT SHOWN IN THE 00Z
TAFS THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT KCHS THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE FAR WESTERN PERIPHERY OF ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PULL FURTHER OFFSHORE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW THIS
EVENING AND MOVES INTO AND THROUGH THE WATERS OVERNIGHT. SOUTH AND
SW WINDS OF 10 OR 15 KT THIS EVENING WILL CLOCK AROUND TO THE WEST
AND NW AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN VEER TO NW AND NORTH AT SIMILAR
SPEEDS LATE. SEAS WILL AVERAGE 1-2 FT THIS EVENING...THEN AROUND 2
FT WITH SOME 3 FOOTERS ARRIVING CLOSER TO DAYBREAK. WHILE WE CAN/T
RULE OUT A LITTLE THUNDER AND LIGHTNING WITH CONVECTION
OVERNIGHT...THE BULK OF THE RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
SHOWERS.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE UP
TO 15 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 292015
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
415 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED
BY WEAK HIGH PRESSURE INTO FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL
SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COLDER
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL PREVAIL INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT INTO THIS EVENING...SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL ADVANCE FROM
INLAND COUNTIES TOWARD THE COAST...MAINLY ALONG/NORTH OF I-16 AND
AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AFTER DARK...
DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD TRANSLATE TO A DECREASING CHANCE FOR
LIGHTNING.

LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE FIRST WAVE OF CONVECTION WILL
TEND TO WEAKEN WITH EASTWARD PROGRESS INTO THE RESIDUAL CAPPED/DRY
ENVIRONMENT OVER THE REGION. HOWEVER...AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT/
ASSOCIATED UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND DEEPER FORCING FOR ASCENT
ARRIVE OVERNIGHT...GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED TOWARD A SIGNIFICANT
EXPANSION OF PRECIPITATION COVERAGE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF I-16.
THUS...BUMPED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THIS AREA FOR SEVERAL HOURS
OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...QPF REMAINS LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH.

TEMPS IN THE 60S/70S THIS EVENING WILL FALL INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST AFTER COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH WEAKENING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE
WEST IN ITS WAKE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED WITH WHICH THE FRONT
DEPARTS INTO THE ATLANTIC...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD LINGER ALONG THE
COASTLINE THROUGH MID MORNING. NOTABLY DRIER AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY
SHIFT INTO THE REGION WITHIN A COLD ADVECTION REGIME...AS
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES DROP TO JUST HALF AN INCH BY THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. COOLER NORTHERLY FLOW AND LOWERING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT
MORE SEASONAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 70S...WITH THE
COLD ADVECTION MITIGATED BY SOME DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMPONENT. NIGHTTIME
LOW TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY FALL BELOW AVERAGE...REACHING MID TO
UPPER 40S WITHIN LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

FRIDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALREADY BE WASHED OUT BY
THE MORNING HOURS...WITH THE FORECAST AREA SITUATED BETWEEN A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT DESCENDING
FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL BE
DIVING FROM SOUTHERN CANADA INTO THE OHIO/TENNESSEE
VALLEY...AMPLIFYING THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL THEN SWEEP SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
COASTLINE FRIDAY NIGHT...AS THE COASTAL LOW DEEPENS OFFSHORE TO
THE NORTHEAST. SOLID WEST FLOW IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT SUGGESTS THE
FEATURE WILL LACK ACCESS TO DEEP MOISTURE...AND THUS BEST RAIN
CHANCES WILL LIKELY BE FOUND CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF LOW PRESSURE
NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE NOT MENTIONED RAIN CHANCES IN THE
FORECAST WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT THIS TIME...PREFERRING JUST TO
INDICATE INCREASING SKY COVER. BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY...PEAKING IN THE
LOW 70S DURING THE AFTERNOON AND FALLING INTO THE LOW TO MID 40S
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...THE PATTERN AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL BECOME HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED SATURDAY MORNING...AS A POTENT CLOSED UPPER SYSTEM
SWINGS OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE AND PROVIDES THE NECESSARY
ENERGY TO INTENSIFY THE NEARLY CO-LOCATED SURFACE LOW. THE STRONG
FRONT WILL BE OFFSHORE BY DAYBREAK...WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER
CANADIAN AIR MASS FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. MODEL SOLUTIONS AND
THICKNESS VALUES CONTINUE TO SUGGEST THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SUPPRESSED IN THE 50S...NEARLY 20 DEGREES BELOW SEASONAL
NORMALS. HAVE ADVERTISED HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH AT LEAST THE CHARLESTON
AIRPORT APPROACHING THE RECORD LOW MAX FOR NOVEMBER 1ST. SEE
CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR DETAILS REGARDING RECORDS. IN ADDITION
TO THE UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR...WEST FLOW WILL BE QUITE WINDY
CONSIDERING A TIGHT GRADIENT BETWEEN THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW AND
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST. THIS PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WHEN COMBINED WITH BRISK COLD ADVECTION AND A 30 TO 40
KT LOW LEVEL JET...WILL SUPPORT SUSTAINED WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 30 OR 35 MPH. A WIND ADVISORY FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA
COULD BECOME NECESSARY.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS COULD PRECEDE A COLD FRONT...AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF VCSH IS JUSTIFIED
TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES
THROUGH THE REGION. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
S/SW WINDS 5-15 KT WILL SHIFT TO N/NW AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AS A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SEAS OF 1-2 FT WILL PREVAIL
MOST OF THE NIGHT...THEN SEAS COULD BUILD SLIGHTLY TO 3 FT BEYOND
20 NM LATE.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND ALLOW WINDS TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND INCREASE UP
TO 15 KT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A MORE POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH A
SMALL POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF THE WATERS
SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

RECORD LOW MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SAT NOV 1...
KCHS 56 /1993/...
KSAV 52 /1925/...
KCXM 52 /1925/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS
CLIMATE...WMS








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291707
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
107 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO
FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITHIN DESTABILIZING ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...
SHOWERS WERE EXPANDING IN COVERAGE...AND A FEW SHOWERS HAD ALREADY
PUSHED INTO FAR INLAND COUNTIES EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
ALSO...A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES WERE NOTED UPSTREAM.

GIVEN ONGOING/EXPECTED TRENDS...BUMPED UP TIMING OF SLIGHT CHANCE
CHANCE POPS MAINLY WEST OF I-95 THIS AFTERNOON...AND ADDED A
MENTION OF ISOLATED THUNDER. GIVEN THE AIRMASS IN PLACE AS SAMPLED
BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING...EXPECT THE INITIAL CONVECTION TO WEAKEN
AS IT PUSHES TOWARD THE COAST.

OTHERWISE...DESPITE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT...EXPECT AN ADDITIONAL AFTERNOON OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH
TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. W/SW WINDS AROUND
10 MPH WILL PUSH 80F TEMPS TO THE BEACHES BEFORE LOCALIZED SEA
BREEZE DEVELOPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FLOW BELOW
500 MB WILL BE VEERING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
UPSTREAM MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA BUT IN GENERAL WE EXPECT THE
FRONTAL BAND TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
THUS WE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AFFECT INLAND AREAS AND DROP THU MORNING
LOWS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF WHILE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY...A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
NORTH...WITH VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS. IN FACT...850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THICKNESS VALUES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S...SO
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO KEEP UP WITH THE
COOLER TRENDS AND NOW INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST
SC TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH POSSIBLE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS COULD COME CLOSE TO EXPERIENCING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS COULD PRECEDE A COLD FRONT...AND
LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A PERIOD OF VCSH IS JUSTIFIED
TONIGHT. AS THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS
DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF AT LEAST MVFR CEILINGS.
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN THURSDAY MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. BECAUSE LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL
NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
COULD SURGE UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...JAQ/SPR
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291408
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1008 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT
OFFSHORE TODAY AND THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE INTO
FRIDAY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY MUCH COOLER HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
DESPITE PLENTY OF MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH/ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT...EXPECT AN
ADDITIONAL DAY OF WELL-ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S AT
MOST LOCATIONS. SW WINDS 10-15 MPH WILL PUSH 80F TEMPS TO THE
BEACHES.

A FEW SHOWERS COULD PUSH INTO FAR INLAND COUNTIES BY VERY LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY THIS EVENING...BUT MOST AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN-
FREE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FLOW BELOW
500 MB WILL BE VEERING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
UPSTREAM MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA BUT IN GENERAL WE EXPECT THE
FRONTAL BAND TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
THUS WE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AFFECT INLAND AREAS AND DROP THU MORNING
LOWS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF WHILE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY...A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
NORTH...WITH VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS. IN FACT...850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THICKNESS VALUES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S...SO
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO KEEP UP WITH THE
COOLER TRENDS AND NOW INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST
SC TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH POSSIBLE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS COULD COME CLOSE TO EXPERIENCING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. AS A COLD FRONT PASSES LATE
TONIGHT...MODEL SOUNDINGS DEPICT THE POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CEILINGS.
COVERAGE OF SHOWERS IS STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE TONIGHT.
WILL CONTINUE TO ASSESS POPS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AND A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST/NORTHWEST...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AVERAGE
10-15 KT THROUGH THIS EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1-2 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. BECAUSE LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT...WINDS/SEAS WILL
NOT INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY AND WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
COULD SURGE UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL/SPR
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/SPR
MARINE...JAQ/JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 291135
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
735 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT JET SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES...MAINTAINING EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. AT
LOWER LEVELS...THE PROFILE WILL BE MOISTENING DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
CONCERT WITH SOME COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD
ANOTHER WARM DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
GOING FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RECORD HIGH BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FLOW BELOW
500 MB WILL BE VEERING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
UPSTREAM MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA BUT IN GENERAL WE EXPECT THE
FRONTAL BAND TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
THUS WE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AFFECT INLAND AREAS AND DROP THU MORNING
LOWS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF WHILE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY...A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
NORTH...WITH VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS. IN FACT...850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THICKNESS VALUES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S...SO
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO KEEP UP WITH THE
COOLER TRENDS AND NOW INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST
SC TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH POSSIBLE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS COULD COME CLOSE TO EXPERIENCING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
IFR VISIBILITIES HAVE DEVELOPED AT KCHS IN FOG THIS MORNING...BUT
WILL DISSIPATE BETWEEN 13-14Z. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SW WINDS WILL
DOMINATE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AS WELL...SO WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANYTHING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD IN THE CURRENT TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT SO WINDS/SEAS WILL NOT
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
COULD SURGE UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JRL/JAQ
MARINE...JRL/JAQ








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290859
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
459 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TODAY...BEFORE A COLD FRONT DROPS
THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL
PROGRESS THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH STRONG HIGH
PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE AREA. THE AREA WILL REMAIN IN THE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A 120 KT JET SHIFTING INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES...MAINTAINING EXTENSIVE HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS OVER THE AREA. AT
LOWER LEVELS...THE PROFILE WILL BE MOISTENING DURING THE DAY WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW SCATTERED CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT. DESPITE THE INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER...FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
CONCERT WITH SOME COMPRESSION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHOULD YIELD
ANOTHER WARM DAY. THERE SEEMS TO BE NO REASON TO DEVIATE FROM THE
GOING FORECAST FOR HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. CANNOT RULE
OUT A RECORD HIGH BEING TIED OR BROKEN TODAY.

TONIGHT...AN UPPER SHORTWAVE DROPPING INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE.
ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...THE SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT WILL BE LIMITED. ANY UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE JET STREAK OVER NEW ENGLAND
WILL BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES. THE FLOW BELOW
500 MB WILL BE VEERING THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...BECOMING MORE
PARALLEL WITH THE FRONT. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP
UPSTREAM MAY DRIFT INTO THE AREA BUT IN GENERAL WE EXPECT THE
FRONTAL BAND TO BE WEAKENING BY THE TIME IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA.
THUS WE MAINTAINED ONLY 20-30 POPS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WEAK COLD ADVECTION WILL AFFECT INLAND AREAS AND DROP THU MORNING
LOWS TO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE IN THE
MORNING...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING FROM THE NORTHWEST
THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
THE COAST THURSDAY MORNING...BUT THEN COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF
THE FRONT WILL USHER IN COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. HIGHS WILL
RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S ACROSS THE
AREA. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE IN THE MID 40S WELL INLAND TO
THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...A SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION OF THE UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN WILL OCCUR AS AN UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF WHILE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY MORNING TO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A VERY STRONG COLD
FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A WESTERLY
COMPONENT TO THE WINDS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL NOT ALLOW FOR
SUFFICIENT MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERE TO SUPPORT ANY SHOWERS WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AREAS. HIGHS FRIDAY SHOULD BE IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA.

SATURDAY...A POTENT CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS JUST TO THE
NORTH...WITH VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND THE DEPARTING
COLD FRONT USHERING IN A COOL CANADIAN AIRMASS. IN FACT...850 MB
TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO FALL TO AROUND -4C OVER NORTHERN PARTS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THICKNESS VALUES ONLY SUPPORT HIGHS IN THE 50S...SO
THEREFORE HAVE LOWERED FORECAST TEMPERATURES TO KEEP UP WITH THE
COOLER TRENDS AND NOW INDICATE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S IN SOUTHEAST
SC TO AROUND 60 IN SOUTHEAST GA. STRONG LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND
THE ONGOING COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR A BREEZY DAY...WITH
WIND GUSTS UPWARDS OF 35 MPH POSSIBLE. IT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE THAT
A FEW AREAS COULD COME CLOSE TO EXPERIENCING WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA
WIND GUSTS.

LAKE WINDS...STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION IN WAKE OF A DEPARTING COLD
FRONT WILL LIKELY RESULT IN WINDS REACHING LAKE WIND ADVISORY
CRITERIA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
SYNOPTIC PATTERN THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. IN THE MID AND
UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...THE REGION WILL REMAIN LOCATED
BETWEEN A TROUGH EXTENDING OVER NEW ENGLAND AND THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND. THE UPPER RIDGE WILL THEN SHIFT EASTWARD
AND EXPAND OVER THE REGION INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. MEANWHILE
AT THE SURFACE...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD FROM THE WEST
THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE SETTLING OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. EARLY
NEXT WEEK THEN SHIFTING INTO THE ATLANTIC TOWARD THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

OVERALL...THIS PATTERN WILL FAVOR RAIN-FREE CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH
SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE
INCREASES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND...WITH LOWS IN THE MID
TO UPPER 30S INLAND FROM THE COAST BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT
AND HIGHS ON SUNDAY ONLY AROUND 60. ELEVATED WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT
SHOULD PREVENT FROST FROM FORMING...WITH CONDITIONS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL THEN MODERATE EARLY NEXT
WEEK WITHIN THE BUILDING RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A BIT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
SHALLOW GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WE MAINTAINED VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE 06Z TAF SET. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SW WINDS
WILL DOMINATE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AS WELL...SO WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANYTHING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD IN THE CURRENT TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE
TERMINALS LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PASSES.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAKE FOR QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS TODAY. A
COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE WATERS LATE TONIGHT WITH WINDS
SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER THERE WILL BE LITTLE COLD
ADVECTION BEHIND THIS INITIAL FRONT SO WINDS/SEAS WILL NOT
INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY.

THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY
MORNING AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS
COULD SURGE UPWARDS OF AROUND 15 KT IN WAKE OF THE FRONT THURSDAY. A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FRIDAY AND SHIFT OFFSHORE FRIDAY
NIGHT. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY...WITH A LESSER POTENTIAL FOR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS SATURDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...JAQ
LONG TERM...JAQ
AVIATION...JAQ/JRL
MARINE...JAQ/JRL
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290620
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
220 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF AN UPPER JET ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
UNITED STATES IS SPREADING A VEIL OF CIRRUS OVER THE AREA FROM THE
WEST. THE FOG RISK INLAND IS PRETTY LOW WHERE THE HIGH CLOUDS HAVE
MOVED IN AND SLOWED THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. ALONG THE COAST WHERE
DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE LOWER...A MODEST LOW-LEVEL GRADIENT IS
KEEPING WINDS AROUND 5 KT...WHICH WILL LIMIT FOG POTENTIAL FARTHER
EAST WHERE THE CIRRUS HAS YET TO INVADE. PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN AREAS WHEN THE WINDS DROP OFF PRIOR TO
DAYBREAK BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING LIKE OCCURRED LAST NIGHT.
LOWS WILL BE IN THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND AND LOWER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ASSISTING IN THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AS A RESULT
OF THE LATER TIMING...DECENT WARMING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWEST TO INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE DAY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. EVEN AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LESS FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...FALLING ONLY
INTO THE MID 50S FAR INLAND TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
FRONTAL DEPARTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE
COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE RAIN MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN
BETTER REFLECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ENTRENCH THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED EVEN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN
AN INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND A BIT OF WIND AT THE SURFACE.
SHALLOW GROUND FOG CANNOT BE RULED OUT BUT WE MAINTAINED VFR
CONDITIONS WITH THE 06Z TAF SET. FOR THE REST OF THE DAY SW WINDS
WILL DOMINATE WITH INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SOME CUMULUS
DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE WEST THIS EVENING
COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR MVFR CEILINGS...MAINLY AFTER 06Z
THURSDAY. RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE LOW AS WELL...SO WE HAVE NOT
INCLUDED ANYTHING FOR THE TONIGHT PERIOD IN THE CURRENT TAFS.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THE EARLY SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE UNIFORM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN MARINE EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6
FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX
SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...JRL
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...JRL
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 290121
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
921 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE RISK FOR SIGNIFICANT FOG IS DIMINISHING WITH EACH PASSING HOUR
AS THE CIRRUS DECK TO THE WEST STEADILY APPROACHES. THESE CLOUDS
WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST THROUGH
THE NIGHT WITH SKIES BECOMING PARTLY TO OCCASIONALLY MOSTLY
CLOUDY. THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER COMBINED WITH CONSIDERABLY LOWER
DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO SUGGEST THE RISK FOR
SIGNIFICANT FOG HAS DIMINISHED. DID OPT TO MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG FOR
AREAS EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGHER IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION.
ALSO RAISED LOWS A FEW DEGREES GIVEN THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER.
LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE MID-UPPER 60S AT
THE BEACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ASSISTING IN THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AS A RESULT
OF THE LATER TIMING...DECENT WARMING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWEST TO INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE DAY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. EVEN AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LESS FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...FALLING ONLY
INTO THE MID 50S FAR INLAND TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
FRONTAL DEPARTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE
COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE RAIN MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN
BETTER REFLECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ENTRENCH THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED EVEN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW LOW VSBYS GET. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. VFR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THE EARLY SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE UNIFORM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN MARINE EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6
FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX
SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/ETC






000
FXUS62 KCHS 282338
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
738 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING--A BIT QUICKER THAN THE LATEST MODEL SET IS INDICATING.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...EVEN
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE...SUGGESTS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAY NOT
BE NEARLY AS GREAT AS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SET OF MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH SHOW LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...THEY ARE STILL ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE HAS PENETRATED TO. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG EAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOWER THE FOG COVERAGE TO PATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THERE. ABOVE-NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO 60-65 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ASSISTING IN THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AS A RESULT
OF THE LATER TIMING...DECENT WARMING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWEST TO INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE DAY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. EVEN AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LESS FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...FALLING ONLY
INTO THE MID 50S FAR INLAND TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
FRONTAL DEPARTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE
COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE RAIN MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN
BETTER REFLECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ENTRENCH THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED EVEN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR EARLY IN THE PERIOD...THEN FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE IN
FOG/STRATUS OVERNIGHT TOWARDS DAYBREAK. MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE
MOVING IN FROM THE WEST WHICH MAY LIMIT HOW LOW VSBYS GET. GIVEN
THIS...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MVFR FOR NOW. WILL NEED TO MONITOR
TRENDS AND AMEND IF NEEDED. VFR WILL RETURN BY MID MORNING.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THE EARLY SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE UNIFORM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN MARINE EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6
FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX
SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 282249
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
649 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
CIRRUS IS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST RATHER QUICKLY EARLY THIS
EVENING--A BIT QUICKER THAN THE LATEST MODEL SET IS INDICATING.
THIS COMBINED WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO...EVEN
IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE...SUGGESTS THE FOG POTENTIAL MAY NOT
BE NEARLY AS GREAT AS LAST NIGHT. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST
SET OF MESOSCALE AND SYNOPTIC MODELS WHICH SHOW LITTLE TO NO FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER...EVEN THOUGH DEWPOINTS ARE
LOWER...THEY ARE STILL ELEVATED...ESPECIALLY EAST OF I-95 WHERE
THE SEA BREEZE HAS PENETRATED TO. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG EAST
OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND LOWER THE FOG COVERAGE TO PATCH FOR
AREAS WEST OF THERE. ABOVE-NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT
WILL RANGE FROM THE MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO 60-65 CLOSER TO THE
COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ASSISTING IN THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AS A RESULT
OF THE LATER TIMING...DECENT WARMING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWEST TO INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE DAY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. EVEN AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LESS FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...FALLING ONLY
INTO THE MID 50S FAR INLAND TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
FRONTAL DEPARTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE
COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE RAIN MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN
BETTER REFLECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ENTRENCH THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED EVEN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TO BE ISSUED.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED
SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE
WATERS TONIGHT. THE EARLY SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO
MORE UNIFORM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET
CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VEER WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE MAIN MARINE EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A
POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE WATERS...FOLLOWED BY COLD
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED
NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6
FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX
SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST/ECT







000
FXUS62 KCHS 282001
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
401 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL INTO WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COLD
FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A
SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN ITS
WAKE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
AFTER A MAINLY CLEAR/WARM EVENING...CONDITIONS WILL ONCE AGAIN
FAVOR FOG/STRATUS DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS
15-20 KNOTS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE COULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE/IMPACT OF ANY DENSE FOG...THUS MAINTAINED A MENTION OF
FOG WITHIN PUBLIC FORECASTS AND ADDRESSED THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BUT A DENSE
FOG ADVISORY IS NOT YET JUSTIFIED FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY.

ABOVE-NORMAL LOW TEMPERATURES LATE TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 50S INLAND TO 60-65F CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE ENERGY
WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARD THE NEW
ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES...ASSISTING IN THE PROGRESSION OF A COLD
FRONT INTO THE CAROLINAS AND SOUTHEAST COASTLINE. MODEL SOLUTIONS
SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL CROSS INTO THE FORECAST AREA AFTER
SUNSET...WITH THE BEST RAIN CHANCES OCCURRING DURING THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHEN FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED. AS A RESULT
OF THE LATER TIMING...DECENT WARMING IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY WHERE CLOUD COVER
IS SLOWEST TO INCREASE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL RISE NEARLY 10
DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS...REACHING THE LOW TO MID 80S. RAIN
CHANCES WILL SLOWLY INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE DAY INTO
THE NIGHTTIME PERIOD. EVEN AS THE FRONTAL ZONE MOVES OVER THE
AREA...HAVE CAPPED RAIN CHANCES AT 30 PERCENT OR LESS DUE TO THE
LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND LESS FAVORABLE VEERING WIND PROFILE. THICK
CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES FAIRLY MILD...FALLING ONLY
INTO THE MID 50S FAR INLAND TO LOW 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY...THE COLD FRONT WILL BE QUICKLY PROGRESSING OFFSHORE BY
DAYBREAK...WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERING TO THE NORTH ON THE
PERIPHERY OF BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE. DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF
FRONTAL DEPARTURE...ISOLATED SHOWERS COULD BE ONGOING ALONG THE
COASTLINE DURING THE MORNING...BEFORE RAIN MOVES OFF INTO THE
ATLANTIC AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. WEAK COLD ADVECTION AND LOWERING
HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT COOLER TEMPERATURES WITHIN A DEGREE OR
TWO OF SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE MID 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN
BETTER REFLECT THE COLD AIR MASS IN THE REGION...AS TEMPERATURES
FALL INTO THE UPPER 40S INLAND TO AROUND 50 DEGREES NEAR THE
COAST.

FRIDAY...A MUCH STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL BE DIVING INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY LATE IN THE DAY...ALLOWING ANOTHER COLD FRONT TO DROP
SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION. ALTHOUGH THE FRONT WILL REMAIN JUST
UPSTREAM THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS...THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DEEPEN
DOWN THE EAST COAST AND ENTRENCH THE COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST. HAVE THUS INDICATED EVEN COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY DESPITE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY PEAKING
IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
GEORGIA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
COULD OCCUR IN STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE REGION AND
SUPPORTS ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL. GUSTY NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS WILL REMAIN SOUTHEAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT. THE EARLY SEAS BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
UNIFORM SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WINDS AS HIGH AS 15 KT TONIGHT. SEAS
WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY...THEN
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WATERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND VEER
WINDS TO THE NORTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN MARINE EVENT WILL
BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A POWERFUL COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE
WATERS...FOLLOWED BY COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE.
SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO
BUILD ABOVE 6 FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM THE COAST.
CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...WMS
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR/WMS
MARINE...SPR/WMS
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281713
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
113 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN A COLDER HIGH
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ONGOING FORECASTS REMAIN ON TRACK FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTROL CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM
DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER. FULL/NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
ANOTHER ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE
BEACHES. NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND
SAVANNAH. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION
FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED SEE SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS
AND FOG BREAK OUT BY LATE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS A FEW VARIABLES SUCH AS LATE NIGHT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BOTH POTENTIAL NEGATING FACTORS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF
FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS
POINT.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE VEERING WHICH WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL
UPWARD LIFT...THUS MINIMIZING SHOWER COVERAGE.

ON THURSDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION
WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR LIKELY THROUGH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER ROUND OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS
COULD OCCUR IN STRATUS/FOG OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER PROBABILITY OF OCCURRENCE AT KCHS. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL RETURN MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR.
GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SE OF THE WATERS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT...S/SW FLOW WILL BACK TO S/SE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE
FLOW WILL VEER BACK TOWARD S/SW TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A
RELATIVELY WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6 FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM
THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281402
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1002 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN A COLDER HIGH
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TUESDAY MORNING...SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE DEEPENING MIXED LAYER IS TAPPING INTO VERY DRY AIR ABOVE
300-400 FT AGL AS DEPICTED BY THE 12Z KCHS SOUNDING...ACCELERATING
THE DISSIPATION OF FOG/STRATUS. SOME FOG/STRATUS WILL PERSIST
UNTIL LATE MORNING BETWEEN I-26 AND THE SANTEE RIVER...BUT THE
POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG HAS PASSED...AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION WILL
CONTROL CONDITIONS TODAY. EXPECT ANOTHER UNSEASONABLY WARM DAY
FOR LATE OCTOBER. FULL/NEARLY FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT ANOTHER
ROUND OF HIGH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AWAY FROM THE BEACHES.
NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH. PLEASE
REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF THIS DISCUSSION FOR DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS
EVENING. WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED SEE SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS
AND FOG BREAK OUT BY LATE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR
WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS A FEW VARIABLES SUCH AS LATE NIGHT
MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BOTH POTENTIAL NEGATING FACTORS. WE HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF
FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS
POINT.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE VEERING WHICH WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL
UPWARD LIFT...THUS MINIMIZING SHOWER COVERAGE.

ON THURSDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION
WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...IMPROVEMENT TO VFR SHOULD OCCUR BY 15-16Z. ANOTHER ROUND OF
FOG/STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT...MAINLY LATE.

KSAV...VFR UNTIL LATE TONIGHT. THEN...FOG/STRATUS AND ASSOCIATED
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH. OTHERWISE...VFR. GUSTY NW
SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
FOG HAS DISSIPATED ON CHARLESTON HARBOR...AND THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SE OF THE WATERS TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT...S/SW FLOW WILL BACK TO S/SE THIS AFTERNOON...THEN THE
FLOW WILL VEER BACK TOWARD S/SW TONIGHT. WINDS COULD BE SLIGHTLY
ENHANCED BY THE SEA BREEZE THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL HOLD WINDS AT 15 KT OR LESS THROUGH
TONIGHT. SEAS WILL REMAIN 1 TO 2 FT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6 FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM
THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 281124
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
724 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN A COLDER HIGH
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NEARING-DAWN...THE SETUP WAS RIPE FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
STRATUS/DENSE FOG INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER CHARLESTON LAST EVENING
AND EXPANDING INLAND WITH WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG ALONG AND E OF I-95
IN SOUTH CAROLINA. IN SE GEORGIA...A STRIP OF DENSE FOG AT FORECAST
RELEASE TIME EARLIER THIS MORNING TRANSLATED NORTHWARD AND CONDITIONS
HAD IMPROVED. WE ARE HESITANT TO LOWER THE ADVISORY HOWEVER...AS
ADVECTION FOG OVER THE OKEFENOKEE SWAMP WAS RAPIDLY DEVELOPING NE
TOWARD THE ALTAMAHA RIVER PRIOR TO 7 AM. OBVIOUSLY WE DO NOT THINK
THE EXTENT OF THE FOG WILL BE GREAT BUT WE WILL ALLOW THE ADVISORY
TO GO A WHILE LONGER.

THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH
SUNSHINE ON TAP ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MID TO LATE MORNING. WE
CONTINUED A NEARLY PERSISTENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR MID TO UPPER
80S TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND
SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED SEE SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG BREAK OUT BY
LATE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS A FEW
VARIABLES SUCH AS LATE NIGHT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BOTH POTENTIAL NEGATING FACTORS. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE VEERING WHICH WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL
UPWARD LIFT...THUS MINIMIZING SHOWER COVERAGE.

ON THURSDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION
WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS...DENSE FOG HAS PREVAILED OVERNIGHT AND SHOULD HANG IN
UNTIL NEAR 14Z WITH IMPROVEMENTS THEREAFTER AND VFR BY LATE
MORNING.

KSAV...THERE IS STILL A CHANCE THAT FOG COULD REDEVELOP PRIOR
TO 13Z AS ADVECTION FOG BUILDS INTO SE GEORGIA AND OTHER OBS
TO THE SW WERE REACHING CROSS-OVERS.

TONIGHT...THE FORECAST IS QUITE TRICKY AS STRATUS AND FOG IS
POSSIBLE FROM LATE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BUT MODELS WERE
MUCH LESS AGGRESSIVE AS SW SYNOPTIC FLOW IS STRONGER AND THERE
COULD BE A SWATH OF CLOUDINESS LATE. AT THIS POINT WE WILL
INTRO MVFR VSBYS AND SCATTERED LOW CLOUDS BELOW 500 FT.

BY 15Z...VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR ONCE AGAIN WITH ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. VFR IS LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE EVENING OR BEFORE 06Z WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH.
GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT AND
AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SE OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...
LIGHT FLOW WILL MAINLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE PRES
GRADIENT STILL LOOKS WEAK AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR
DIURNAL SURGES...SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT ON AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6 FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM
THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ101-116-
     118-137-138-140.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280803
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
403 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE A COLD FRONT
DROPS THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION THURSDAY...THEN A COLDER HIGH
WILL MOVE IN ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRE-DAWN...THE SETUP WAS RIPE FOR FOG FORMATION OVERNIGHT WITH
STRATUS/DENSE FOG INITIALLY DEVELOPING OVER CHARLESTON LAST EVENING
AND EXPANDING INLAND WITH POCKETS OF DENSE FOG NOW EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR OF SE GEORGIA. A BIT FURTHER INLAND ACROSS SE
GEORGIA...THE ATMOSPHERIC LAYER JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION
WAS LESS CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE
PROFILES AND A BIT MORE WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. HEADING TOWARD
DAWN...FOG WILL LIKELY BE MORE WIDESPREAD AND QUITE DENSE NORTH OF
SAVANNAH INCLUDING THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY REGION. WARM TEMPS
EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S WELL INLAND TO THE
LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST.

THE DEEP LAYERED RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO TRANSITION MORE OFFSHORE BY
TONIGHT. TODAY WILL BE ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY FOR LATE OCTOBER WITH
SUNSHINE ON TAP ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF MID TO LATE MORNING. WE
CONTINUED A NEARLY PERSISTENT HIGH TEMP FORECAST FOR MID TO UPPER
80S TODAY WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE AT BOTH CHARLESTON AND
SAVANNAH.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND MILD CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. WOULD NOT
BE TOO SURPRISED SEE SOME POCKETS OF STRATUS AND FOG BREAK OUT BY
LATE EVENING. AREAS OF FOG ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT BUT CONDITIONS
DO NOT LOOK QUITE AS FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG AS A FEW
VARIABLES SUCH AS LATE NIGHT MID/HIGH CLOUDS AND SOMEWHAT STRONGER
SW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER BOTH POTENTIAL NEGATING FACTORS. WE
HAVE MAINTAINED AREAS OF FOG IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY DENSE FOG AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DIG ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
WHILE A SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES ON
WEDNESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY.
ALTHOUGH CLOUD COVER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS THE DAY WEARS ON...
FAIRLY STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AND AT LEAST PARTIAL SUNSHINE
ALONG WITH PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL YIELD HIGHS IN THE MID 80S.

AS THE FRONT DROPS SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT...LOW
LEVEL WIND FIELDS WILL BE VEERING WHICH WILL LESSEN THE MOISTURE
ADVECTION ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN ONLY MARGINAL
UPWARD LIFT...THUS MINIMIZING SHOWER COVERAGE.

ON THURSDAY...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
WITH DECREASING CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY. DOWNSLOPE COMPRESSION
WILL OFFSET THE COLD ADVECTION BY A COUPLE DEGREES...WITH HIGHS IN
THE MIDDLE 70S.

A REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY. LOWS
WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW/MID 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD CANADIAN HIGH DROPPING INTO THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES OVER THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE
GFS THOUGH BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT AN UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR MASS WILL
BE WITH US FOR SEVERAL DAYS. SATURDAY LOOKS COOL AND BREEZY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE MIDDLE 60S.

STRONG COLD ADVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT WILL DROP TEMPS INTO THE
MID/UPPER 30S. SUNDAY MAY BE A FEW DEGREES COLDER THAN SATURDAY WITH
HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER/MID 60S. SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO HOLD MORE OF
A FROST THREAT SINCE THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE DIMINISHING AND
SURFACE WINDS WILL RELAX AS THE HIGH SHIFTS OVERHEAD. INLAND LOWS
WILL DROP INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ELSEWHERE.
THE EXPANSIVE SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MONDAY WITH A WARM ADVECTION REGIME RESUMING. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD
BE BACK IN THE 70S BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS LOOKS TO BE SOCKED IN WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SINCE LAST EVENING
AND CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH LOCKED
IN THROUGH MID MORNING. AT KSAV...05Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
VSBYS WERE DETERIORATING QUICKLY AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY
SET IN THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION VSBY
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

BY 15Z...VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR ONCE AGAIN WITH ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. VFR IS LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE EVENING OR BEFORE 06Z WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE TONIGHT
AS AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FOG DEVELOP. BRIEF MVFR CEILINGS
ALSO POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH.
GUSTY NW SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DENSE FOG HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE CHARLESTON HARBOR OVERNIGHT AND
AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING.

WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SE OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT...
LIGHT FLOW WILL MAINLY BE FROM A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. THE PRES
GRADIENT STILL LOOKS WEAK AND WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME MINOR
DIURNAL SURGES...SPEEDS THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY BELOW 15 KT WITH
SEAS 1 TO 2 FT ON AVERAGE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS ON WEDNESDAY... THEN A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE WATERS WILL SWITCH WINDS TO NORTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE MAIN EVENT WILL BEGIN LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AS
A POWERFUL COLD FRONT BLASTS THROUGH WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH
PRESSURE IN ITS WAKE. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FROM SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A PINCHED NORTHEAST GRADIENT WILL
ALSO ALLOW SEAS TO BUILD ABOVE 6 FT...ESPECIALLY BEYOND 20 NM FROM
THE COAST. CONDITIONS WILL RELAX SOMEWHAT EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
HIGH SHIFTS OFFSHORE.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR GAZ101-116-
     118-137-138-140.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ042>045-
     047>052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280537
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
137 AM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY CONTINUES UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA. THE ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO BE
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS WELL
AS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA OVERNIGHT. ATOP THE STRATUS CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST...SKIES WERE CLEAR AND READINGS VERY MILD IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TO START
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE. RAISED FORECAST HIGH ON TUESDAY A TAD IN MOST AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH WARMEST AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO WENT WITH
HIGH CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS FROM TODAY. NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO COOL AS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...A COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE RATHER MILD...MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS LOOKS TO BE SOCKED IN WITH LIFR CONDITIONS SINCE LAST EVENING
AND CHANCES ARE GOOD THAT CONDITIONS WILL STAY PRETTY MUCH LOCKED
IN THROUGH MID MORNING. AT KSAV...05Z OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT
VSBYS WERE DETERIORATING QUICKLY AND LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY
SET IN THERE AS WELL OVERNIGHT GIVEN LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION VSBY
GUIDANCE AND SATELLITE TRENDS.

BY 15Z...VSBYS SHOULD BECOME VFR ONCE AGAIN WITH ANY RESIDUAL
STRATUS DISSIPATING RAPIDLY. VFR IS LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING
WITH SOME LOW CLOUDS POSSIBLE LATE EVENING OR BEFORE 06Z WED.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE EARLY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT MOST/ALL OF THE TIME. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL
PREVAIL...MAINLY IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.

DENSE FOG IS IN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE CHARLESTON HARBOR AND
AN ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THERE UNTIL 10 AM.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6
FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 1940.
ALSO...THIS IS THE LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY AT KSAV SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1871.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR SCZ043>045-
     049-050-052.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR AMZ330.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 280249
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1049 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...DENSE FOG LIKELY OVERNIGHT...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...SPOTTER REPORTS AND SC DOT WEBCAMS INDICATE
DENSE FOG IS RAPIDLY EXPANDING ACROSS THE CHARLESTON TRI-COUNTY
AREA...INCLUDING COLLETON COUNTY. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS
THEREFORE BEEN ISSUED UNTIL 10 AM TUESDAY. STILL BELIEVE THE BEST
CHANCES FOR ADVISORY LEVEL FOG WILL OCCUR ALONG AND EAST OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR WHERE THE HIGHER DEWPOINTS WILL BE FOUND OVERNIGHT.
THE ADVISORY MAY VERY WELL HAVE TO BE EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REST
OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AS WELL AS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TO START
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE. RAISED FORECAST HIGH ON TUESDAY A TAD IN MOST AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH WARMEST AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO WENT WITH
HIGH CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS FROM TODAY. NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO COOL AS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...A COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE RATHER MILD...MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 08-09Z
THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUPS BORDERING IFR THRESHOLDS. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DENSE FOG WITH LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHICH TENDS TO FOG MORE. THE FOG
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN 200 FT...SO EXPECT A
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE EARLY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT MOST/ALL OF THE TIME. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL
PREVAIL...MAINLY IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6
FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 1940.
ALSO...THIS IS THE LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY AT KSAV SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1871.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR SCZ043>045-049-
     050-052.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
930 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD AT THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT THE COAST HAS DECOUPLED FOR THE MOST PART. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S. THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE
THE FOG WILL BECOME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS NOTED IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL SETS...BUT ALREADY SEEING AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA...SUGGESTING
THE MORE ROBUST NAM12 AND SREF ARE VERIFYING THE BEST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS VSBYS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME
AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TO START
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE. RAISED FORECAST HIGH ON TUESDAY A TAD IN MOST AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH WARMEST AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO WENT WITH
HIGH CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS FROM TODAY. NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO COOL AS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...A COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE RATHER MILD...MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 08-09Z
THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUPS BORDERING IFR THRESHOLDS. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DENSE FOG WITH LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHICH TENDS TO FOG MORE. THE FOG
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN 200 FT...SO EXPECT A
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE EARLY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT MOST/ALL OF THE TIME. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL
PREVAIL...MAINLY IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6
FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 1940.
ALSO...THIS IS THE LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY AT KSAV SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1871.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 280130
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
930 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD AT THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION HAS DISSIPATED AND THE BOUNDARY LAYER
AT THE COAST HAS DECOUPLED FOR THE MOST PART. DEWPOINTS ARE QUITE
ELEVATED IN THE WAKE OF THE SEA BREEZE WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN
THE MID-UPPER 60S. THE PRIMARY CONCERN OVERNIGHT IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR DENSE FOG AND STRATUS. IT IS STILL UNCLEAR HOW WIDESPREAD/DENSE
THE FOG WILL BECOME OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE MIXED SIGNALS NOTED IN THE
VARIOUS MODEL SETS...BUT ALREADY SEEING AREAS OF FOG/STRATUS
DEVELOPING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CHARLESTON METRO AREA...SUGGESTING
THE MORE ROBUST NAM12 AND SREF ARE VERIFYING THE BEST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT FOR ALL BUT THE FAR
SOUTHWEST ZONES...BUT THE INTRODUCTION OF WIDESPREAD FOG AND/OR
DENSE FOG MAY BECOME NECESSARY AS VSBYS TRENDS BECOME MORE
APPARENT. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY ALSO BECOME NECESSARY FOR SOME
AREAS EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TO START
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE. RAISED FORECAST HIGH ON TUESDAY A TAD IN MOST AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH WARMEST AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO WENT WITH
HIGH CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS FROM TODAY. NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO COOL AS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...A COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE RATHER MILD...MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 08-09Z
THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUPS BORDERING IFR THRESHOLDS. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DENSE FOG WITH LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHICH TENDS TO FOG MORE. THE FOG
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN 200 FT...SO EXPECT A
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE EARLY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT MOST/ALL OF THE TIME. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL
PREVAIL...MAINLY IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6
FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 1940.
ALSO...THIS IS THE LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY AT KSAV SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1871.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 272253
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
653 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

...LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY ON RECORD AT THE SAVANNAH AIRPORT THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1871...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE SEA BREEZE HAS MADE IT AS FAR INLAND AS THE I-95 CORRIDOR WITH
SOUTHEAST WINDS STILL BEING REPORTED FROM I-95 EAST TO THE COAST.
THE BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO DECOUPLE QUICKLY THIS EVENING...
DECOUPLING LAST WHERE THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE.
HIGHER DEWPOINT AIR HAS BEEN ADVECTED INLAND FROM OFF THE ATLANTIC
VIA THE SEA BREEZE AND THE BEST CHANCES FOR FOG FROM MIDNIGHT
THROUGH SUNRISE TUESDAY WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-95.
18Z TABULAR GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE FOG POTENTIAL
SOMEWHAT...BUT THE LATEST SREF AND NAM-12 STILL HIT THE FOG
PROBABILITIES FAIRLY HARD. WILL MAINTAIN AREAS OF FOG FOR ALL BUT
THE FAR SOUTHWESTERN ZONES WHERE THE SEA BREEZE WILL LIKELY NOT
REACH. WILL HIGHLIGHT PATCHY FOG THERE. A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MAY
VERY WELL BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT EARLY TUESDAY MORNING FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST GEORGIA.

CHANGES FOR THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE INCLUDE...
1. ATTEMPT TO BETTER DEFINE TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT OF OVERNIGHT
FOG PER OUTPUT FROM LATEST SREF AND NAM12.
2. MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH
MIDNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TO START
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE. RAISED FORECAST HIGH ON TUESDAY A TAD IN MOST AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH WARMEST AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO WENT WITH
HIGH CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS FROM TODAY. NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO COOL AS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...A COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE RATHER MILD...MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG LOOKS TO BE THE BIGGEST CONCERN THROUGH SUNRISE. MAINTAINED
PREVAILING MVFR VSBYS AT BOTH KCHS/KSAV FROM ROUGHLY 08-09Z
THROUGH 14Z WITH TEMPO GROUPS BORDERING IFR THRESHOLDS. LOWER
CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE...INCLUDING DENSE FOG WITH LIFR
VSBYS/CIGS...ESPECIALLY AT KSAV WHICH TENDS TO FOG MORE. THE FOG
SHOULD REMAIN FAIRLY SHALLOW...NO HIGHER THAN 200 FT...SO EXPECT A
RAPID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 14Z AS MIXING ENSUES.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG.

&&

.MARINE...
TONIGHT...A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE EARLY
SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM SOUTHEAST
WINDS THIS EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT. THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN
LESS THAN 10 KT MOST/ALL OF THE TIME. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL
PREVAIL...MAINLY IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD EASTERLY SWELL.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY AOB 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A
COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW
COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY
AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL
GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6
FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
THE HIGH TEMPERATURE REACHED 90 DEGREES AT KSAV THIS AFTERNOON.
THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD HIGH OF 89 SET IN 1940.
ALSO...THIS IS THE LATEST 90 DEGREE DAY AT KSAV SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN IN 1871.

RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

ST







000
FXUS62 KCHS 271930
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
330 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...
FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
UNSEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL INTO EARLY EVENING.

TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS. DRY AIR ATOP THE SURFACE
INVERSION/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWERING TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 2-4
AM ESPECIALLY WEST OF U.S. 17. GUIDANCE DEPICTS 10-15 KT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND PERHAPS THIS COULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG. THUS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT YET
JUSTIFIED. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN STATES AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WILL DEVELOP
EASTWARD WELL INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED ALONG THE EASTERN STATES.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
PATCHY DENSE FOG INTO TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK. THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AREAS OF FOG AROUND TO START
TUESDAY...BUT ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF...TEMPERATURES SHOULD QUICKLY
RISE. RAISED FORECAST HIGH ON TUESDAY A TAD IN MOST AREAS. EVEN
THOUGH WARMEST AIR AT 850 MB SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE AREA...THIS
WILL BE COMPENSATED SOMEWHAT BY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...SO WENT WITH
HIGH CLOSE TO MAV GUIDANCE AND ONLY A COUPLE OF DEGREES BELOW THE
HIGHS FROM TODAY. NAM GUIDANCE APPEARS WAY TOO COOL AS BEEN THE CASE
THE PAST FEW DAYS. TUESDAY NIGHT EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH LOWS
MAINLY IN THE UPPER 50 TO LOWER 60S...WITH SOME MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST.

WEDNESDAY...EVEN THOUGH SOUTHWESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
CONTINUE...A COMBINATION OF A CONTINUED LOWERING OF THE 850 MB
TEMPERATURES AND SOME INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER THAN THOSE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY.
ANY THREAT FOR RAIN SHOULD REMAIN WELL WEST OF THE AREA ON
WEDNESDAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WEST AND NORTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON
THURSDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS...MAINLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST LATER WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND IN
MOST AREAS ON THURSDAY. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE
WEST...RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE RATHER MILD...MAINLY FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S. SOMEWHAT
COOLER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT AND MORE CLOUD COVER SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGHS ON THURSDAY MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S. SOME FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY INLAND SATURDAY AND/OR SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TAFS DEPICT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z-08Z. THEN...
CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AT AND AROUND
TERMINALS UNTIL 13-15Z TUESDAY. SINCE FOG COULD BE PATCHY...OPTED
TO LIMIT PREVAILING VISIBILITY TO 3SM WITH A MENTION OF BCFG AT
BOTH TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED
OUT AT EITHER SITE. REGARDLESS OF FOG COVERAGE...FOG WILL
DISSIPATE AND VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY
TUESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT. THE EARLY SEA BREEZE
CIRCULATION WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE UNIFORM SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS
EVENING...THEN WINDS WILL VEER TOWARD THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT.
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WINDS WILL REMAIN LESS THAN 10 KT MOST/ALL OF
THE TIME. SEAS OF 1-2 FEET WILL PREVAIL...MAINLY IN A 9 SECOND PERIOD
EASTERLY SWELL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS
GENERALLY AOB 10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO
SHIFT IN FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25
KT AT TIMES. SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
HEIGHTS REACHING 5-6 FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE
OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

MON OCT 27...
KCHS 87 /1978/...
KSAV 89 /1940/...ALREADY TIED AS OF 3 PM MON AFTERNOON...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...MTE
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...MTE/SPR
CLIMATE...SPR








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271730
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
130 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE...FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS 9-12F ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 27. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS. DRY AIR ATOP THE SURFACE
INVERSION/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWERING TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 2-4
AM ESPECIALLY WEST OF U.S. 17. GUIDANCE DEPICTS 10-15 KT WINDS
JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND PERHAPS THIS COULD LIMIT THE
COVERAGE/IMPACT OF FOG. THUS...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS NOT YET
JUSTIFIED. HOWEVER...GIVEN OVERALL FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG...MAINTAINED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WHILE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN 850 MB RIDGE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY THE PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL OFFSET THE
SLIGHT DECREASE IN INSOLATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

AN ELONGATED VORT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY
SO WE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z TAFS DEPICT VFR CONDITIONS UNTIL AT LEAST 06Z-08Z. THEN...CONDITIONS
WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR RADIATION FOG AT AND AROUND TERMINALS
UNTIL 13-15Z TUESDAY. SINCE FOG COULD BE PATCHY...OPTED TO LIMIT
PREVAILING VISIBILITY TO 3SM WITH A MENTION OF BCFG AT BOTH
TERMINALS. HOWEVER...BRIEF LIFR VISIBILITY CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT
EITHER SITE. REGARDLESS OF FOG COVERAGE...FOG WILL DISSIPATE AND
VFR CONDITIONS WILL RETURN BY LATE MORNING/MIDDAY TUESDAY.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...LATE TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY...MVFR OR
LOWER VISIBILITIES ARE POSSIBLE IN RADIATION FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MARINE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE TRANQUIL TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE WEATHER SCENE. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE THERMAL
GRADIENT BETWEEN LAND AND OCEAN DRIVING THE SEA BREEZE
OSCILLATION. DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER MORE SW LATER TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH CENTERS WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS ON
AVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS AOB
10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
5-6 FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

MON OCT 27...
KCHS 87 /1978/...
KSAV 89 /1940/...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...
KCXM 86 /LAST SET 1939/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL/SPR
AVIATION...SPR
MARINE...JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271650
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE...FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS 9-12F ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 27. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS. DRY AIR ATOP THE SURFACE
INVERSION/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWERING TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 2-4
AM ESPECIALLY WEST OF U.S. 17. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG...ADDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WHILE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN 850 MB RIDGE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY THE PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL OFFSET THE
SLIGHT DECREASE IN INSOLATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

AN ELONGATED VORT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY
SO WE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN...CHANCES FOR RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. VARIOUS MODEL
DATA...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP BUT MOST OF THE DATA
SUGGESTS IT COULD BE LATE...TOWARD DAWN. WITHIN 12Z TAFS
MAINTAINED MVFR VSBYS AFTER 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MARINE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE TRANQUIL TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE WEATHER SCENE. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE THERMAL
GRADIENT BETWEEN LAND AND OCEAN DRIVING THE SEA BREEZE
OSCILLATION. DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER MORE SW LATER TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH CENTERS WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS ON
AVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS AOB
10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
5-6 FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

MON OCT 27...
KCHS 87 /1978/...
KSAV 89 /1940/...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...
KCXM 86 /LAST SET 1939/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...








000
FXUS62 KCHS 271650
AFDCHS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1250 PM EDT MON OCT 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE AND PROGRESSIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
UNDER A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE...FULL SUNSHINE WILL SUPPORT
HIGH TEMPS 9-12F ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER...IN THE MID TO
UPPER 80S AT MOST LOCATIONS. THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSE TO
RECORD HIGHS FOR OCT 27. PLEASE REFER TO THE CLIMATE SECTION OF
THIS DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TONIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL SUPPORT A DECOUPLED BOUNDARY
LAYER/NEARLY CALM SURFACE WINDS. DRY AIR ATOP THE SURFACE
INVERSION/EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING AND LOWERING TEMP/DEWPOINT
SPREADS SHOULD SUPPORT AREAS OF FOG DEVELOPMENT MAINLY AFTER 2-4
AM ESPECIALLY WEST OF U.S. 17. GIVEN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
FOG...ADDED A MENTION OF DENSE FOG FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING WITHIN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY
WHILE A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED
STATES. BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY THE AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN 850 MB RIDGE WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL WARM
ADVECTION. TUESDAY LOOKS WARM AND DRY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND
HIGH TEMPS IN THE MIDDLE 80S. WEDNESDAY WE EXPECT INCREASING LOW
AND MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...HOWEVER WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD
FRONT LATE IN THE DAY THE PRE-FRONTAL COMPRESSION WILL OFFSET THE
SLIGHT DECREASE IN INSOLATION. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY WILL PUSH INTO
THE LOWER 80S.

AN ELONGATED VORT WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD FRONT INTO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE COAST BY THURSDAY EVENING. INITIALLY
THERE WILL BE LITTLE FORCING ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BOUNDARY
SO WE DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING. FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WILL INCREASE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN
SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST AS THE FRONT
MOVES OFFSHORE. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFF THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ONLY
ISOLATED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. THE INITIAL
BURST OF COLD ADVECTION WILL DROP INLAND TEMPS INTO THE UPPER 40S BY
FRIDAY DAYBREAK. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OFF THE COAST
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL SLIGHTLY OFFSET THE
COLD ADVECTION DURING THE DAY...THOUGH HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY WILL STILL ONLY REACH THE MIDDLE 60S. EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
NIGHT DUE TO THE BROAD CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH SETTLING OVERHEAD. LOW
TEMPS BOTH MORNINGS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S THOUGH
SHELTERED INLAND LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO TOUCH THE UPPER 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. THEN...CHANCES FOR RADIATION FOG
DEVELOPMENT INCREASE THROUGH DAYBREAK TUESDAY. VARIOUS MODEL
DATA...NUMERICAL GUIDANCE AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE GOOD
CHANCES FOR MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO DEVELOP BUT MOST OF THE DATA
SUGGESTS IT COULD BE LATE...TOWARD DAWN. WITHIN 12Z TAFS
MAINTAINED MVFR VSBYS AFTER 08Z.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK...VISIBILITIES MAY DROP TO MVFR OR LOWER WEDNESDAY
MORNING DUE TO FOG. OTHERWISE...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE MARINE FORECAST CONTINUES TO LOOK QUITE TRANQUIL TODAY THROUGH
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRES DOMINATES THE WEATHER SCENE. LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW WILL DEVELOP WITH A SEASONABLY STRONG SURFACE THERMAL
GRADIENT BETWEEN LAND AND OCEAN DRIVING THE SEA BREEZE
OSCILLATION. DIRECTIONS SHOULD VEER MORE SW LATER TONIGHT AS THE
HIGH CENTERS WELL OFFSHORE. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 FT OR LESS ON
AVERAGE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH WINDS AOB
10 KT AND SEAS 1-2 FT. A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH THE AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL ALLOW COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE TO SHIFT IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. STRONG NNE WINDS WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE WATERS...WITH SPEEDS APPROACHING 20-25 KT AT TIMES.
SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH HEIGHTS REACHING
5-6 FT...THOUGH WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED DUE TO THE OFFSHORE FETCH.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK...

MON OCT 27...
KCHS 87 /1978/...
KSAV 89 /1940/...

TUE OCT 28...
KCHS 86 /LAST SET 1963/...
KSAV 88 /2010/...
KCXM 86 /LAST SET 1939/...

WED OCT 29...
KCHS 85 /1946/...
KSAV 87 /1996/...
KCXM 82 /1984/...

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...SPR
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL/SPR
AVIATION...
MARINE...JRL/SPR
CLIMATE...








    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities